Shuvojit Biswas
Shuvojit Biswas
Shuvojit Biswas
By
SUBHAJIT BISWAS
B.Com. Part-II, Roll No. 06
Registration no.
Chakdaha College
Nadia
APRIL, 2017
Acknowledgement
I avail myself of the opportunities with great pleasure in acknowledging my deepest sense of
gratitude to Prof. Dr. Amit Kumar Chakrabarty, HOD, Department of Commerce, Chakdaha
Collelge, for selection of problems, valuable guidance, constant supervision, encouragement,
suggestions and painstaking efforts throughout the period of investigation and preparation of
this project report.
At this moment I never forget the name of Prof. S. Paul, Prof. Naresh Mondal, Prof. Sourav
Duttamustafi, Prof. Sujit Roy, Prof. Ajoy Roy and Prof. Indrajit Sen of Department of
Commerce, Chakdaha College for their kind support in completing the project report. I am
largely indebted to them.
I also convey my heartiest gratitude to Dr. Swagata DasMohanta, Principal, Chakdaha College
and Teachers of the other department who are acted as well-wisher since the beginning of
college education.
I am grateful to Mr. Sujash Karmakar, Computer Assistant of Chakdaha College for his kind
effort in the hours of need.
I also thankful to my beloved typist, who typed the project report neatly on urgent basis.
Dated:
Address:
SUBHAJIT BISWAS
Table of Content
Page No.
Acknowledgement
Chapter I
Introduction
Review of Literature
Objective of the Study
Hypothesis
Limitation
Methodology
Selection of Sample
Statistical Technique Used
Chapter II
Conceptual Frame Work
Gold
Uses of Gold
Gold Investment
Investment Vehicles
Factors Affecting Gold Price
Rate of Return
Sexsex (BSE)
Systematic Risk
Unsystematic Risk
Chapter III
Presentation of Data, Analysis and Findings
Chapter IV
Conclusion and Recommendations
Bibliography
Annexure I, IA, IB
Chapter I
INTRODUCTION
Bullion market and Share market is very interesting field of empirical research for the
researchers of financial management’s arena. Academicians, researchers of India and abroad
have been conducted numerous research work on the related field. Few of them are being
highlighted in the primary phase of the present research work. Michael E. Solt and Paul J.
Swanson (1981) have been conducted a research work on the efficiency of the markets for gold
and silver. The outcome of the their study is gold and silver are precious metals that have come
to be viewed as possible investment assets. From the investor's point of view, it is important to
know that gold and silver prices reflect the relevant information set at every point in time. A
sequence of price changes for each metal has been analyzed in their work in order to establish
if these markets are efficient in this sense. The distributions generating the price changes appear
to exhibit characteristics of nonnormality and nonstationarity in the means and variances. There
appears to be some positive dependence in the series, though it does not seem that investors
can easily exploit this dependence. These results have important implications for the role of
gold and silver as investment assets. A study on price movements in early twentieth-century
India of Tirthankar Roy (1995) generalizes that price movements in India between 1900 and
1935 can be explained by trade and harvest shocks, though the relative importance of each
changed over time; that these shocks induced changes in trade and the money multiplier which
could be stabilizing; and that resulting changes in real balances can explain major industrial
fluctuations. Peter Tufano(1996) examines that firms whose managers hold more options
manage less gold price risk, and firms whose managers hold more stock manage more gold
price risk, suggesting that managerial risk aversion may affect corporate risk management
policy. Further, risk management is negatively associated with the tenure of firms' CFOs,
perhaps reflecting managerial interests, skills, or preferences. In his study, Stephen Quinn
(1996) thinks that arbitrage between bullion and bills of exchange transmitted exchange rate
shocks to early modern England's monetary stock. The country's entry into the Nine Years War
following the Glorious Revolution of 1688 weakened the pound's exchange rate, which ended
a period of gold imports into England and began a period of silver exports. The success of this
international arbitrage was built on innovative intermediaries such as the London goldsmith-
banker Stephen Evance. His article shows how he channelled international bullion flows and
arranged for complementary financial services that facilitated arbitrage between bills of
exchange and bullion. In their article, Ann M. Carlos, Jennifer Key and Jill L. Dupree (1998)
have been used a unique source-a 30-year time series of the share transactions of two joint-
stock companies-to examine the growth of the London capital market prior to and immediately
after the Glorious Revolution. They argued that the London experience with open capital
markets was not solely the result of 1689. Rather it was the learning by private individuals and
goldsmith bankers which took place in the decades before 1689 that allowed the market to take
full advantage of the property rights changes which occurred with the change in regimes. A
review of Coulson and Michael (1999) has been presented of avenues in gold investment,
ranging from the metal itself, through coins and jewellery to shares in exploration and
production, bonds and derivatives. For gold investors the issue of 'beta' is important. In a gold
boom, the gold asset class which performs best is the gold share sector. The question is whether
an investor should pick a straight producer or an exploration hopeful. As to the metal itself, the
key issues encompass dealing, holding charges and security. Other gold assets such as bonds
may be too obscure and illiquid, bullion funds can be too expensive selling above net value,
coins may have a numismatic value in excess of their gold value and jewellery usually has a
substantial 'added' value. Gold derivatives provide an outlet for gearing up gold's performance
but carry severe health warnings due to their volatility. As well as assessing the merits or
otherwise of these various asset classes, some influences on the gold price that are critical in
evaluating gold's attractions or otherwise as an investment are examined. Amongst these are
the issues of central bank selling, the OTC derivatives market, gold production trends and
demand growth factors. The influence of both India and China on the gold market is considered.
Finally, firm conclusions have been drawn as to where the gold price is going over the next
couple of years and the effect this could have on the various gold investment forms considered.
Sevket Pumuk (2001) explains in his research article, the Price Revolution of the 16th century
has been the subject of one of the most enduring debates in European historiography and, more
recently, in the historiography of the world economy. That European prices, expressed in grams
of silver, increased by more than 100 percent—and in some countries, by more than 200
percent—from the beginning of the 16th century to the middle of the 17th century has been
well established and broadly accepted. In countries that experienced currency debasements,
overall inflation was proportionately higher, reaching, in some cases, 600 percent or more for
the entire period.
In the present study the investigator proposed to study the relationship between bullion price
and sensex (BSE) in the context of the country India.
Review of Literature:
Siti Nurulhuda Ibrahim, Nurul Izzat Kamaruddin, and Rahayu Hasan (2014) analyses factors
that affecting the prices of gold in Malaysia. The researcher used three independent variables
that affect the prices of gold which are crude oil prices, inflation rates and exchange rates. They
have found that there is a negatively significant relationship between inflation rates and
exchange rates on gold prices, while a crude oil price is positively significant. The statistical
tool used in this model is Multiple Linear Regression Model.
Amalendu Bhunia, Sanjib Pakira (2014) investigates the affiliation between three financial
variables of gold price, exchange rates and sensex between 1991 and 2013. Johansen
cointegration test result indicates that there exists a long-term relationship among the selected
variables. Granger causality test result shows that there must be either bidirectional or no
causality among the variables.
Amalendu Bhunia and Somnath Mukhuti (2013) examines the impact of domestic gold price
on stock price indices in India using appropriate statistics, unit root test and Granger causality
test. The study is based on secondary data obtained from World Gold Council database and
BSE and NSE database. The results under unit root test indicate that time series are not
stationary at levels and the selected time series are stationary at 1st difference. Granger
causality test illustrate that no causality exists between nifty and gold price, gold price and
sensex and nifty and sensex and bidirectional causality exists between gold price and nifty,
sensex and gold price and sensex and nifty.
Ahmad Raza Bilal, Noraini Bt. Abu Talib,Inam Ul Haq, Mohd Noor Azli Ali Khan and
Muhammad Naveed (2013) enquires the long-run relationship between gold prices and Karachi
Stock Exchange (KSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The statistical techniques used
for this study includes Unit Root Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Phillips-Perron, Johnson Co-
integration and Granger’s Causality tests to measure the long-run relationship between gold
prices, KSE and BSE. Findings of the co-integration test indicated that no long-run relationship
exist between monthly average gold prices and KSE stock index; whereas, a significant long-
run relationship is proved between BSE stock index and average gold prices. Results of
Granger causality test demonstrated that no causal relationship exists among average gold
prices, KSE and BSE stock indices.
K. S. Sujit and B. Rajesh Kumar (2011) attempts to test the dynamic relationship among gold
price, stock returns, exchange rate and oil price. All these variables have witnessed significant
changes over time and hence, it is absolutely necessary to validate the relationship periodically.
The results show that exchange rate is highly affected by changes in other variables. However,
stock market has fewer roles in affecting the exchange rate.
Thai-Ha Le and Youngho Chang (2011) investigates the relationship between the prices of two
strategic commodities: gold and oil. The authors use different oil price proxies in their
investigation and find that the impact of oil price on gold price is not asymmetric but non-
linear. Their result shows that there is a long-run relationship existing between the prices of oil
and gold. Their findings imply that the oil price can be used to predict the gold price.
A. K. Chakrabarty (2006) establishes a hypothesis in his empirical study that bullion price and
sensex (BSE) walk independently.
In the present study the investigator intends to study degree of relationship exists between
bullion market and stock market and also significance of the relationship. Apart from these, the
author desires to investigate the percentage of the variance of the Sensex returns explained by
the changes in the Bullion returns.
1. To find out the relationship between Bullion Price and Sensex of Bombay Stock Exchange
(BSE).
3. To find out the percentage of the variance of the Sensex returns explained by the changes in
the Bullion returns.
Hypothesis:
In order to realize the above objectives the following null hypotheses have been formulated:
Ho: There exists no significant relationship between Bullion Price and Sensex (BSE)
Alternative Hypothesis:
Ha: There exists a significant relationship between Bullion Price and Sensex (BSE)
Limitation:
The study is confined to only one month duration, starting from 1st Feb. 2017 to 28th Feb. 2017.
Sample bullion prices and sensex (BSE) have been collected during the above mentioned
period. This period is not very sufficient to reach a confirmed decision.
Methodology:
Selection of Sample:
Sample prices of bullion and sensex (BSE) of randomly selected 19 days out of 28 days of the
month February 2017 have been collected from the websites: www.bullionindia.com and
www.bseindia.com.
The bullion returns (independent variable) and sensex returns (dependent variable) have been
worked out to study the relationship between both returns. Arithmetic Mean (A.M.) and
Standard deviation (S.D.) of two variables have been worked out separately for further
calculations. Coefficient of correlation has been used to study the degree of relationship
between bullion price and sensex price. Coefficient of determinant has been used to find out
the percentage of the variance of the Sensex returns explained by the changes in the Bullion
returns. To study the significance of the relationship between bullion price and sensex, ‘t-test’
has been used at 5% significance level. Line charts have been used to compare the bullion-
price returns to the sensex returns. Bar chart has been used to show the variation of the bullion
returns and sensex returns.
A number of statistical techniques have been used to realize the objectives of the present study.
Arithmetic Mean (A.M), Standard Deviation (S.D), Coefficient of Correlation and Coefficient
of Determination have been used to analysis and interpretation of sample data. For testing
hypothesizes, ‘t-test’ of correlation of coefficient has been used. Test has been conducted at5%
significance level. Diagrammatic representation of statistical data technique (Bar Chart, Line
Chart) has also been used to show the movement of bullion returns and sensex returns.
Chapter II
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
1. GOLD
Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (Latin aurum, shining dawn) and an atomic
number of 79. It has been a highly sought “after precious metal for coinage, jeweler, in rocks,
in veins and in alluvial deposits. Gold is dense, soft, shiny and the most malleable and ductile
pure metal known. Pure gold has a bright yellow color and luster traditionally considered
attractive, which it maintains without oxidizing in air or water. Gold is one of the coinage
metals and has served as a symbol of wealth and a store of value throughout history. Gold
standards have provided a basis for monetary policies. It also has been linked to a variety of
symbolisms and ideologies for centuries, gold has meant wealth, prestige, and power, and its
rarity and natural beauty have made it precious to men and women alike. Owning gold has long
been a safeguard against disaster. Many times when paper money has failed, men have turned
to gold as the one true source of monetary wealth. Today is no different. While there have been
fluctuations in every market and decided downturns in some, the expectation are that gold will
hold its own. There is a limited amount of gold in the world, so investing in gold is still a good
way to plan for the future. Gold is homogeneous, indestructible and fungible. These attributes
set gold apart from other commodities and financial assets and tend to make its returns
insensitive to business cycle fluctuations. Gold is still bought(and sold) by different people for
a wide variety of reasons - as a use in jeweler, for industrial applications, as an investment and
so on
USES OF GOLD
⮚ Gold is an Investment
⮚ Gold is insurance
GOLD INVESTMENT
Gold is the most popular as an investment. Investors generally buy gold as a hedge or harbor
against economic, political, or social fiat currency crises including investment market declines,
burgeoning national debt, currency failure, inflation, war and social unrest). The gold market
is subject to speculation as are other markets, especially through the use of futures contracts
and derivatives. The history of the gold standard, the role of gold reserves in central banking,
gold's low correlation with other commodity prices, and its pricing in relation to fiat currencies
suggest that gold behaves more like a currency than a commodity.
INVESTMENT VEHICLES
Bars
The most traditional way of investing in gold is by buying bullion gold bars. Bars are available
in various sizes. Bars generally carry lower price premiums than gold bullion coins. However
larger bars carry an increased risk of forgery due to their less stringent parameters for
appearance. While bullion coins can be easily weighed and measured against known values,
most bars cannot, and gold buyers often have bars re-assayed.
Coins
Gold coins are a common way of owning gold. Bullion coins are priced according to their fine
weight, plus a small premium based on supply and demand.
Accounts
Many types of gold "accounts" are available. Different accounts impose varying types of
intermediation between the client and their gold. One of the most important differences
between accounts is whether the gold is held on an allocated (non-fungible) or unallocated
(fungible) basis. Another major difference is the strength of the account holder's claim on the
gold, in the event that the account administrator faces gold-denominated liabilities (due to a
short or naked short position in gold for example), asset forfeiture or bankruptcy.
Mining companies
These do not represent gold at all, but rather are shares in gold mining companies. If the gold
price rises, the profits of the gold mining company could be expected to rise and as a result the
share price may rise. However, there are many factors to take into account and it is not always
the case that a share price will rise when the gold price increases. Mines are commercial
enterprises and subject to problems such as flooding, subsidence and structural failure, as well
as mismanagement, theft and corruption. Such factors can lower the share prices of mining
companies.
⮚ Inflation Prospects
⮚ Value of Dollar
⮚ Gold Reserves
⮚ US Government Borrowing
⮚ Speculation
⮚ Supply
2. Rate of Return:
Rate of return of share index and market index may be calculated by dividing the difference
between share price in the beginning (Pt) and share price at the end (Pt – 1) by share price at the
end (Pt - 1).
Rate of return = (Share price in the beginning – Share price at the end) /
Technically, R = (Pt - Pt – 1) / Pt - 1.
The returns of a security and market index may be measured on a weekly or monthly basis.
3. Sensex (B.S.E):
The Bombay Stock exchange (BSE) Sensitive Index or Sensex, which was created in January
1986 is the barometer of the country’s stock markets. In creating this Index the year 1978 – 79
has been assumed as the base year. Thirty shares have been selected on the basis of their
sensitivity. The movements of sensex are based on highs and lows in the weighted market
capitalization (MC = Outstanding equity shares X Current market price) of that 30 shares. The
index is calculated as the ratio of the aggregate market capitalization of the equity shares of all
the sensex companies on the given day to the total market capitalization of the equity shares of
the same companies during the base period, multiplied by 100. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Dow
Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and S & P 500 followed the same method.
4. Systematic Risk:
The risk arises on account of the economy-wise uncertainties and the tendency of individual
securities to move together with changes in the market is known as systematic risk or market
risk. This type of risk cannot be controllable and avoidable. The diversification cannot reduce
this type of risk. Investors are exposed to market risk even when they hold well-diversified
portfolios of securities.
Example:
The part of total risk, arises from the uncertainties which are unique to a firm or individual
securities is known as unsystematic risk. This type of risk is diversifiable if large number of
securities are combined to form well-diversified portfolios. Though this part of total risk can
not be totally reduced through diversification, a certain level of that risk can be controllable
and avoidable. Unsystematic risk is the offshoot of business risk and financial risk unique to a
firm.
Example:
i) Workers’ strike
ii) Entrance of formidable competitor in the market
iii) R & D Expert leave the organization
iv) Increase in custom duty by the government on the material used by the company.
Chapter III
PRESENTATION OF DATA, ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS
In this phase we shall present the collected data diagrammatically and portray our findings of
the study.
Figure 1
Figure 1 shows the variability of bullion returns. Most of the sample days (i.e., 12), the figure
shows the positive returns. Only two sample days has been unable to earn positive returns on
bullion prices. A negligible variation in bullion returns has been noticed except first two days.
Figure 2
Figure 2 shows the variability of sensex returns. Most of the sample days (i.e., 13) the figure
shows the negative returns on sensex. Only five sample days have been earned positive
returns. A wide variation in sensex return has been noticed within small range.
Figure 3
Rate of Return on Bullion Vs. Sensex
Rate Of Return On Bullion
Prices
Rate Of Return On Sensex
Prices
Figure 3 shows a comparative picture of bullion returns and sensex returns. It has been
observed from the figure that sensex returns are more stable than bullion returns. The range of
variation in sensex returns is lower than the range of variation in bullion returns. Apparently
there exists little correlation between both the returns.
The coefficient of correlation between bullion returns and sensex returns is .139. The result
indicates that there exists little relationship between bullion price and share price. That means
sensex does depend on bullion price slightly. The volatility of sensex somewhat depends upon
variability of bullion price. The calculated value of ‘t’of both variables is 0.566. Tabulated
value of ‘t’ at 5% significance level of 16 d. f. is 2.120. Since the calculated value does not
exceed tabulated value, it can also be concluded that there exists no significant relationship
between bullion returns and sensex return.
Coefficient of determination i.e., .019 (or 1.9%) indicates the percentage of the variance of the
sensex returns explained by the changes in the bullion returns. Thus, 1.9% variance in sensex
return (sensex-risk) is explained by the bullion market. This type risk is termed as market risk,
which cannot be diversified or avoidable. The unexplained variance i.e., 98.1% (100% - 1.9%)
is related to the companies. This type of risk is called unsystematic risk, which can be
diversified or avoidable. Studying the value of coefficient of correlation, it can be concluded
that the companies may diversify or control its major portion of the risk by taking different
measures for risk reduction.
Chapter IV
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Conclusion
The study reveals that there exists a little relationship between bullion prices and the Sensex.
Bullion price and sensex (BSE) moves slight simultaneously. It also found that there exists no
significant relationship between bullion price and sensex. Only 1.9% variance in sensex return
(sensex-risk) is explained by the bullion market.
Recommendations
This study will be helpful to the investors and companies to understand the nature of bullion
price and sensex.
Bibliography
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Annexure I
Table – I
Returns on Bullion Prices and Sensex Prices
-0.0368 -0.003
0.0352 -0.0005
-0.0062 -0.0069
-0.0065 0.0037
-0.0041 0.0016
0.0058 -0.0014
0.0065 -0.0002
0.0003 -0.0006
-0.0034 0.0004
0.0041 0.0065
-0.0116 -0.0051
-0.0027 -0.0059
0.0055 -0.0067
0.0024 -0.0035
-0.0034 -0.0036
-0.0037 -0.0009
-0.0081 0.0028
0.0017 0.0024
Table – II
Results Relating To Risk-Return of
Stock Market and Bullion Market
Statistics Sensex Bullion
Table – III
Results of Statistical Tests
(Ho/Ha)
Supervisor's Certificate
Annexure- IB
Student's Declaration
I hereby declare that the Project Work with the title (in block letters)
............................................................................................................
................................submitted by me for the partial fulfilment of the degree of
B.Com. Honours in Accounting & Finance / Marketing / Taxation / Computer Applications
in Business under the University of Kalyani is my original work and has not been submitted
earlier to any other University /Institution for the fulfilment of the requirement for any
course of study.
I also declare that no chapter of this manuscript in whole or in part has been incorporated
in this report from any earlier work done by others or by me. However, extracts of any
literature which has been used for this report has been duly acknowledged providing details
of such literature in the references.
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