Pakistan’s Geo-Economic Interest in Central Asia

Background
Throughout the 18th, 19th and greater part of the 20th century, the British
defined their border at the Khyber and kept the Russians beyond the Hindu Kush
and the Oxus River. The border was so tightly closed that the people on either
side- the kith and kin from time immemorial became cut off and they were made
to forget their historical, trade and cultural links. The two imperial powers have
the satisfaction of exploiting their own colonies to enrich and add to the
prosperity of their own home land. With the withdrawal of the European powers
and the era leading to the disintegration of the Soviet Union brought about an
entirely new situation in the region. For the first time in the modern age, the
neighboring countries from the Oxus to the Indus have the opportunity to regain
the old natural way of communication not only for re-establishing their historical
and cultural links but also for giving access to one another for trade and
commerce. Moreover, the critical economic crisis bestowed by the disintegration
of the Soviet Union forced Central Asian states to pursue external links for
opening new trade routes and economic relations with a need to have their
resources and products considered in real economic terms and their value paid
according to international monetary exchange (Dani, A.H, 1996, 25)

Geographical significance of the region

The modern Central Asia, consisting of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,
Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and the energy-rich Caspian Sea, obligated its importance
due to massive economic and resource potential along with geo-strategic
location. (Khawaja, 7, 2003) The political and economic heritage of Central Asian
region hit with the evolving facts of post-cold war transitional period that resulted
in clashes, uncertainty, political chaos, and a swarm of complex challenges. The
CAS were in need of economically feasible and cost effective passage and pipeline
routes for their economic growth and prosperity; Pakistan’s important strategic
location provides these landlocked and yearning states with that much needed
and shortest route to the Arabian Sea to be connected with rest of the world. The
significance of the region attracted many regional and global powers towards
itself due their growing interests and quest to get hold of energy resources. The
region has added substantial global attention predominantly for two reasons:
1- Central Asia’s role as a buffer zone that can serve as a platform for geostrategic
projection in the war on terror after 9/11.
2- The exploitation of energy assets in the Caspian Sea area (Hees, M,1995.94)
Central Asia is a vast land bridge between Europe on the West and china on the
East and in the past old Silk Road moving from East to West from this vast stretch
of land. Central Asia has a shared land area of nearly 4 million sq.km2 (4,003,451
km2) with a mere population of 64million (Squires, 1, 2012) living on this huge
land mass. The region is at the junction between Asia, Europe, the Persian Gulf,
the Middle East, and the Far East. Though China, Iran, and Pakistan, it has
opportunity or access to the Pacific coast, the Persian Gulf, and the Indian Ocean
respectively, moreover, being at the core of Eurasian continent the region
provides a perilous link between the enormous and dynamic continental
economies of China, the European Union, India, Japan and Russia and will
certainly gain substantial importance in European and Asian economies. Central
Asia has acted as the battlefield for external powers. Once the holder of Great Silk
Route, the region whose significance in world affairs endured moderately
insignificance during the Soviet occupation, is now on the path of regaining its lost
importance because of its enormous energy reserves, (oil and gas) and industrial
infrastructure left behind by the USSR. These energy reserves are very crucial in
powering the global economy in the near future particularly, on the face of
reducing energy resources in the Middle East. The table of energy resources along
with ranking is attached

Natural reserves of Central Asia

 Oil Reserves
 Natural Gas
 Coal Reserves
Database & Republic of Uzbekistan The CARs are increasing their basic
infrastructure and developing road and rail links with neighboring states but
currently the region has challenging time to stable itself and has overwhelmed
with many problems thereby trying to maintain its stability and hampering
progress. However, by achieving stability in region and establishing linkages with
neighboring regional countries like Pakistan to have access to the world, the
existing geo-strategic and economic impact of Central Asia will be more boosted.
This paper, therefore, offers a broad analysis of the central Asian states and their
evolving dynamics especially economic dynamics and their implications on
Pakistan. What advantages Pakistan can get with present scenario especially after
US with drawl from Afghanistan. Particularly the energy crises which Pakistan is
facing, how these countries can help to fulfil its energy requirements? And what
are the opportunities and constraints faced by Pakistan. Central Asia has large
deposits of coal, iron, copper, lead, phosphates, zinc, gold, uranium and variety of
other minerals. However, by far the most important natural resources are oil and
natural gas that are not equally distributed among the countries of the region, as
most of them are beneath or near Caspian Sea. (Kort, M, 2003, 11) Pakistan has
been actively pursuing the policy to become a regional energy transport hub.
Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Pakistan and India have decided to push ahead with
plans for pipeline of 1,680 kilometres(TAPI) 1,680 kilometres, by this route about
90 billion litres per day – natural gas will be extracted from Turkmenistan's
natural gas reserves in Daulatabad through western and southern Afghanistan
(Herat, Farah, Helmand and Kandahar) before continuing to Pakistan and India
(http://en.peacereporter.net/articolo). The Asian Development Bank is the
leading coordinating financial and technical partner.In August 2010 Pakistan,
Afghanistan and Tajikistan had made a plan to construct rail roads and highways
infrastructure that will give access to the sea to the republic of Tajikistan via
Pakistani sea ports that will empower Pakistan to export its products to the vast
Central Asian markets.( http://www.dawn.com/news/705084/zardari-on-three-
dayvisit-to-tajikistan)About 1300 km lengthy road will pass through the Durah
pass (4550 meters high) from Chitral to the Tajik capital of Dushanbe.
Thecompletion of Murghab-Kulma road from Tajikistan to China connecting to the
KKH to Pakistan will boost the transit trade between Pakistan and the Central Asia
(Dr Anwar, 2011)

Interests/opportunities & constraints for Pakistan

Central Asia today is little known and understood in Pakistan because for nearly
seventy years that extensive region, wherefrom came our mediaeval rulers and
which bestowed a cultural character to the people of Pakistan was a closed book
to us. There has been however a faint memory in the mind of the people who are
stirred by Iqbal’s nostalgic poetic verse about Samarkand and Bokhara. Apart
from this poetic vision, trade and commerce continued for centuries between the
trading houses of both the regions. In fact, central Asia was a life line for our land
route commerce to Russia and Europe at a time when the region was open to
world market up to the beginning of 20th century. This commercial activity
brought the two areas into a common political and cultural connectivity. In fact
from the steppes of Kazakhstan to the Arabian Sea and from the Caspian to the
mouth of the Indus, the vast stretch of Asian heartland is one cultural zone where
people have common religion and ethnic history Central Asia has always
esteemed a key place in Asian & world political history. Pakistan and Central Asia
relationship is and can be of mammoth consequence because both the sides can
gain prominently from the blessed natural and Pakistan’s Interests/opportunities
& Constraints in Central Asian States geographic potential of each other to boost
their social and cultural cooperation. As far Central Asian benefits are concerned,
Pakistan’s geo-strategic location is of excessive significant which provides the
weightiest influential, cost effective and short opening access for its energy
reserves to the palpable outer world through the ports at Karachi, Port Qasim,
and Gwadar. Moreover, the capitals of Central Asian states can use these ports to
enhance their trade with outside world through cost effective routes to boost
economic activity in the region. As for Pakistan, the significance of Central Asia
cannot be unheeded in any way. Pakistan turning out to be a key energy export
track in completely operating situation would uplift its international status and
would be able to solve her economic and social problems. Furthermore, it will
manifest deeper interest of international community in its stability and security,
however, to benefit out of the CAS resource potential Afghanistan’s stable
government is must and in the wider interest of Pakistan. Various interests of
Pakistan in Central Asia can be categorized as

(a) Strategic Interests.

Central Asia’s significance depends upon its strategic geographic location and
huge natural resources. (Farra & Burgio, 9, 2011) Since independence, Pakistan
looked for some kind of strategic depth against a perceived threat from Indian’s
aggressive strategies. After the disintegration of the USSR, to counter that threat,
Pakistan found a chance to develop good relations with the CAS. Moreover, to
bring in diversity in arms resources Pakistani procurement agencies look towards
CAS weighing to dispose large amounts of Soviet-era military equipment to earn
much-needed foreign exchange. Pakistan by sponsoring training in military and
civil fields and generating interactions within training institutions can strengthen
the ties with the region. Furthermore, Pakistan can also render technical and
economic assistance to the states to enhance intra-regional stability. In short
Strategic interest is the utmost significant aspect of Pakistan’s foreign policy
towards Central Asia.

(b) Political Interests

In terms of geographic location, geo-historic and economic prospective, the zone
encompassing from Turkey to Pakistan and from Central Asia to the Arabian Sea
signifies a region where collaboration and cohesive progress seems natural. The
Economic Co-operation Organization, (ECO) which initially included three
countries Turkey, Iran and Pakistan, has now included Afghanistan and the six
Central Asian Republics of the former Soviet Union. Today, it stands on the 2nd
biggest regional organization after the European Union (EU), with the prospective
for creating a substantial impact to the progress and affluence of member
countries. Pakistan, due to geographical neighborhood and attraction with these
republics & on the roots of kinship can cultivate substantial co-operation in many
fields and once peace and stability comes to Afghanistan, Pakistan will deem to
offer the most suitable outlet to the sea to these landlocked countries.

(c) Economic Interests

One of the most significant features of Pakistan’s policy interests in Central Asia is
to promote economic policies which reveals great level of interest and
enthusiasm to develop opportunities of economic links and has incorporated
extraordinary status in providing transit trade services to these landlocked
republics as Pakistan’s geo-political location offers her an advantage over other
Asian states to stimulate the economic linkage with CARs. Yet, various aspects
mainly insecurity & instability in Afghanistan has stuck the struggles made by
Pakistan to turn the region into a greater economic zone. In addition to oil and
gas Pakistan has also focused on progress of bilateral trade in raw materials and
industrial goods and the opening up of communication connections. Struggles
have also been made to establish banking and insurance companies as well as
import-export ventures.
Constraints
No doubt, the main aspects of Pakistan’s foreign policy are to develop
cooperation in economic, cultural and strategic spheres yet, both Pakistan and
Central Asia are facing many problems. Pakistan is interested to increase the
areas of interests in all the significant fields and to exploit & utilize each other’s
potentials. The numerous bottlenecks involved to improve the base of
relationship can be described as:

1. Afghan turmoil.
The principal issue and a major fence hindering the establishment of strong ties
between Pakistan and CARs is the expository critical position in Afghanistan. As all
key routes to Central Asia are potential through Afghanistan and without security
and peace en-route neither Pakistan nor Central Asian states can move ahead
with the anticipated implementation of the policies to craft a regional economic
zone. It is the need of the hour that Pakistan should feel the importance of this
dire time and work perspicaciously towards the attainment of national and
regional economic stability, peace and support in peaceful settlement of Afghan
issue because that works as an imperative corridor between Pakistan and Central
Asia.

2. Pakistan’s Political and Economic Syndrome

Although Pakistan prospects to make implements on the projects in trade,
commerce and mainly in the energy sector and is in the need to take the
economic assistances from the energy rich states of Central Asia but the feeble
internal economic and economic base creates a greater risk to future prospects
and plans. This also aggravates due lack of financial resources and inconsistent
policies thereby hampering the smooth and timely execution of planned projects.

3. Foreign States influence.

The eternally rising role of Iran, Turkey and many other Middle Eastern states
pose an enormous challenge for Pakistan to establish her stronghold in the
region. Whereby the nations want to exploit the virgin resource potential of the
states for their own interests as discussed before Pakistan’s role in the energy rich
Central Asia. Though Pakistan is facing many challenges, yet it must have a strong
policy to keep an eye on her future goals to gain economic strength in the region
while developing mutual assistance towards Central Asian states. The role of giant
powers and their participation in the region is another factor stimulating
Pakistan’s future policies in Central Asia. Furthermore, besides US and Russian
influence the Indian aims in CARs cannot be ignored. Moreover, besides US and
Russian influence the Indian aims in CARs cannot be ignored. The India interest in
the Central Asian states dates back since the Soviet period when which being
allies provided an edge to India over Pakistan there. The stated facts pose a great
challenge and hinder smooth relations between Pakistan and CAS; to remain
effective and influential in the region and to play an active role, Pakistan must
evolve a sound and lasting strategy to safeguard her interests and fulfill her
aspirations

4. Lack of infrastructure.
The chief bottleneck in boosting the economic base relationship is development
of infrastructure between Pakistan and CARs, mainly in rail and road links which
can be extended from Pakistan to Central Asia via Iran and Afghanistan; the same
will greatly improve the cooperation and provide a swift and cost effective way
for transportation of goods thereby providing excess and opportunity for the CASs
to open up to the world; but the same is possible upon restoration of peace in
Afghanistan and improvement of Iran US relations. Pakistan can perceive
substantial assistance for industrial growth and can attain steady suppliers of
surplus power with gas and electricity grid plans or through future oil supplies
from Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, thereby giving the
concept of Indus basin corridor and being a north-south landsea trade route
facilitator which will boost her consequence in the development of future gas/oil
pipeline routes toward South Asia and remains dynamic for Central Asia and
China as well. The trade relations through these routes would create a lasting
impact on development and prosperity of Pakistan with greater chances of
economic stability and integration; however, due economic and political concerns
and uncertain security environment in Afghanistan the same could not materialize
until now. In near future, the Almaty-Karachi road/railway network is probably to
be passed and linked through other Afghanistan-Pakistan routes adjoining the
Bolan, the Gomal, and the Khyber passes, and Pakistan’s Northern Areas. These
plans can be fruitful only by peace and stability in Afghanistan and Tajikistan.
Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan can make their trade more frugally, with
economically cost effective and quite secure and tyrannous as compared to other
presently unstable routes. Furthermore, India-Pakistan’s normalization in
relations will transform the Indus Basin into a profitable economic corridor
between the South and Central Asian continent as well.

5. Mutual interests/Pakistan’s energy demand

The basic demand in need and significance of ties between Pakistan and Central
Asia has always been manipulated not only because of new developments in the
international and regional political policies yet the old connection in religious,
cultural and trade links has given the source for creating these bonds. The Central
Asian republics due their proven and potential energy resources are the El Dorado
of Asia. Pakistan owes a lot of prospects to achieve focused economic supports
from this region like other regional countries and world powers. There is no
circumventing the point that Russia has impact on the Central Asian republics in
the economic-political spheres. Moreover, Iran and Turkey‘s strong histo-cultural
bonds with these states cannot be ignored. Furthermore, the US military presence
in the region has created disturbance and has shaken the sense of balance of
power in Central Asia. Additionally, politico- economic uncertainty within the
Central Asian Republics is also the main hurdle in creating good ties but despite all
these hard facts Pakistan has to adopt diplomatic and political tactics to make use
of the region in her entire benefit through efficiently countering political turmoil
in Afghanistan and the clashes over the allocation of Caspian Sea oil reserves. To
remove constraints into prospects / opportunities, the Government of Pakistan
demands to have broad and inclusive perception on the Central Asian states and
work out a multi-phased strategic approach

Conclusion
Pakistan has great opportunity to utilize abounds hydrocarbon reserves of
landlocked Central Asia by providing these states transit and port conveniences
for trade with the peripheral countries and the outer world. Yet it is not an easy
task because these states have sturdy political& economic bonds and influence
with Russia. In fact, it is a tough job for any country to develop an uphold position
in the region. While Pakistan particularly being actively involved against Soviet
army during Afghan war maintains strained relations with Russia. The continuing
insecurity in Afghanistan has seriously destabilized Pakistan’s prospects in Central
Asia. The internal stability of the Central Asian region depends upon balanced
system of relationships with the USA, Western Europe, Russia, China, Turkey, Iran,
and other Muslim countries. Afghanistan is the real source of instability. An
additional phenomenon manipulating the position is the rivalry between Russia,
USA and Iran wherein all these countries are attempting to deteriorate each
other’s influence, while pursuing to escalate their own. Although Pakistan owes a
significant importance due geographic potential yet, the main drawback is that
Pakistan has no direct link with these states. Pakistan can move through Iran,
Afghanistan and China. Thus, Iran and Turkey have an ascendency over Pakistan in
their struggle to generate their impact in the region. For Pakistan’s policymakers,
the potential path is to nurture links exclusively with all Central Asian states and
efforts to persuade the leaders of the region that it offers them the best potential
outlet towards the Arabian Sea. At the same time, Pakistan should accentuate the
traditional, cultural and historical links with these states. It’s provoked and
declared policy should be to cultivate sturdy relations with Central Asian states on
the basis of joint endeavors, with introducing & developing business and trade
links and skilled services. It is crucial that transportation network mainly rail and
road infrastructure between Pakistan and Central Asia be improved and advanced
quickly to make any economic development potential