Shrimp Panel

PANEL LEADERS:
Travis Larkin, Seafood Exchange of Florida
Michael Seidel, Performance Food Group

JANUARY | PALM SPRINGS, CALIFORNIA

 Travis Larkin MichaelSeidel
Seafood Exchange of Florida Performance Food Group

Shannon Gilreath Dr. Robins McIntosh

Rich Products Corporation Charoen Pokphand Foods
 World shrimp production
5,500,000
R² = 0.9773
5,000,000

4,500,000

4,000,000
MT

3,500,000

3,000,000

2,500,000

2,000,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: FAO, industry estimates

 Vannamei worldwide production
Asia Americas Other
6,000

4,843 4,973 4,870

5,000

4,000
MT (Thousands)

3,000

2,000

1,000

-
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023*
est

Source: FAO, Industry estimates

 Vannamei production: Asia
China India Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Philippines Malaysia Bangladesh
3,500
3,182
2,955
3,000 2,802

2,500
MT (Thousands)

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023*
est

Source: FAO, Industry estimates

 Vannamei production:
Central & South America
Ecuador Mexico Brazil Central America Colombia/Venezuela Peru
2,000 1,832 1,788
1,800
1,600 1,503
1,400
MT (Thousands)

1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023*
est
Source: FAO, Industry estimates
 Asia and Latin America shrimp production trends
Latin America Asia Poly. (Latin America) Poly. (Asia)
4,000,000
R² = 0.967
3,500,000

3,000,000

2,500,000 R² = 0.9915

2,000,000
MT

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: FAO, industry estimates

 Countries with increasing production
(3 years % change)
% Increase
Country 2020-2022 (%)
Ecuador 88%
Venezuela 63%
Peru 60%
Mexico 38%
Middle East 30%

Vietnam 14%
China 14%
Vietnam 12%
Indonesia 10%
 Top 10 Shrimp Producers
2022 Projected Projected
Rank Country Total 2022 BT Proj 2023 Change 2023 BT
1 Ecuador 1.300 1,250 -4
2 India 800 45 690 -14 50
3 China 800 120 820 +14 150
4 Vietnam 680 180 650 -4 180
5 Indonesia 400 40 380 0 45
6 Thailand 275 15 280 +2 20
7 Mexico 165 165 0
8 Middle East 120 95 -21
9 Brazil 110 115 +3
10 Central America 94 90 -4
 Breaking trend lines?
ecuador India Poly. (ecuador) Poly. (ecuador) Poly. (India)
1,600,000

1,400,000
R² = 0.9601
1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000

600,000
MT

400,000

200,000
R² = 0.9834
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
-200,000

-400,000
Source: FAO, industry estimates
Shrimp global production-difficult year ahead?
• 2023 is a difficult year to project– the first half will be lower– as known
from the lower stocking rates of the last quarter– the second half will
depend on shrimp price movement, and the world economy-
consumption
• Countries with domestic consumption seem to be affected less than
those dependent on exports

2023 Shrimp production % Change from 2022

Global -1%
Asia -4%
Latin America -2%
 Shrimp Processors Shrimp Farmers
Market downturn, Farmers stock lower
fewer orders, lower prices (Oct-Dec 2022) in
offered to farmers Southeast Asia and Ecuador

3-4 months later (Jan-Feb), Corrections made quickly in

less available supply shrimp aquaculture and
farmers start stocking higher
Demand increases and
higher prices offered
Farmers stock lower
Market downturn,
fewer orders, lower prices And so on….
offered to farmers
 Global Shrimp production

• India - Low prices, Higher Feed

costs, Disease (EHP)
• Ecuador - Lower Prices, (Fuel
subsidy removed), increased
feed costs, some disease
• Vietnam - Lower Prices, higher
feed costs
 US annual shrimp imports
1,000,000
896,686
900,000
808,534
779,725
800,000 747,394

700,000
600,000
500,000
MT

400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021* 2022*
Nov Nov

Source: NMFS; 2022 v olume through Nov

 Top shrimp supply countries to US Jan-Nov
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
350,000

300,000 -9%

250,000

200,000 12%
MT

-2%
150,000

100,000
-14%
50,000 0%
5% 2%
-35% -26%
0
INDIA INDONESIA ECUADOR VIETNAM THAILAND MEXICO CHINA ARGENTINA PERU

Source: NMFS
 After Two Years of Growth, Frozen Seafood Dollars were Flat in 2022 -
Fish Grew While Shrimp and All Other Seafood Declined
SHRIMP FISH ALL OTHER SEAFOOD
$9.0
$8.0
$1.3 $1.2
$7.0
Dollar Sales (Billions)

$0.8
$6.0
$2.8 $3.0
$5.0 $0.5 $2.4
$0.5
$4.0 $1.9
$1.8
$3.0
$2.0 $3.7 $4.0 $3.8
$2.6 $2.8
$1.0
$0.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

• Frozen Seafood finished 2022 at $8.0B in Retail sales. Category dollar sales were flat (-0.9% or -$75M) from 2021
‒ The category lagged the greater Frozen Department, which finished 2022 up 9.6% in dollars
• Shrimp represented 48% of category sales but saw the highest absolute dollar decline, down -3.6% or -$144M
• Fish represented 37% of sales and grew 7.4% (+$208M) gaining dollar share from both Shrimp and All Other Seafood
• All Other Seafood represented 15% of sales was down -10.3% (-$139M) and lost share to Fish (-1.6pts)

Source: Nielsen AOD; Total US xAOC; Custom Seafood Category; 5 Years Ending 12/31/22
 2021 and 2022 seasonality returned to Pre-COVID patterns typical for the
category with Lent and Q4 holiday spikes
2021 2022
SHRIMP FISH SHRIMP FISH ALL OTHER SEAFOOD AVG MONTHLY SEAFOOD SALES

ALL OTHER SEAFOOD AVG MONTHLY SEAFOOD SALES $800M Lent Holidays
Lent Holidays
$800M $700M

$700M $600M

$600M
$500M
$500M
$400M
$400M
$300M $300M

$200M $200M

$100M
$100M
$0K
$0K

• I n 2021, Frozen Seafood sales av eraged $625M every four • I n 2022, Frozen Seafood sales av eraged $619M every
w eeks. four w eeks, a -0.9% decline from 2021
• Sales spikes w ere once again driven by traditional ‒ 2022’s av erage four week Frozen Seafood sales were
seasonality of the category (Lent and the Holiday season) up 56% from pre-COVID time in 2019

Source: Nielsen AOD; Total US xAOC; Custom Seafood Category; 2 Years Ending 12/31/22
Frozen shrimp declines came from fewer households buying and
existing households making less trips and buying fewer units per trip

Source: Nielsen Homescan Panel; Total US HS; All Buyers; All Outlets; Custom Seafood Category; 52 Weeks Ending 07/16/22
The South Region continues to dominate national frozen shrimp
sales, but the West Region gained market share in 2022
MIDWEST
$602M ( 4%)

WEST
NORTHEAST
$670M ( 3%) $654M ( 5%)
The West Region experienced dollar declines
like all other regions, but it was the only
region to gain market share (+0.2pts) in 2022

SOUTH
$1.6B ( 4%)
The South Region continues to generate
the most Frozen Shrimp dollar sales,
capturing 45% of all sales in 2022

Source: Nielsen AOD; All US xAOC Regions; Custom Seafood Category; 52 Weeks Ending 12/31/22

26
 Breaded shrimp volume was less sensitive to price
fluctuations than unbreaded value added shrimp
Breaded Shrimp UBVA Shrimp
POUNDS(LBS) PRICE/LB POUNDS(LBS) PRICE/LB
6,000,000 $8.40 6,000,000 $7.60

5,000,000 $8.20 $7.40

5,000,000
$8.00 $7.20
4,000,000 4,000,000
$7.80 $7.00
3,000,000
$7.60 3,000,000 $6.80
2,000,000 $6.60
$7.40 2,000,000
1,000,000 $6.40
$7.20
1,000,000
$6.20
0 $7.00
0 $6.00

• Price inflation peaked mid-year driving down volume • Price inflation peaked going into Q4 decreasing average
monthly v olume during a key category seasonal time frame
• Q4 Holiday v olume sustained as price stabilized

Source: Nielsen AOD; All US xAOC Regions; Custom Seafood Category; 52 Weeks Ending 12/31/22
 Both commodity shrimp bag and tray dollar volume
driven by price increases as unit volume declining
Commodity Shrimp Bags Commodity Shrimp Trays
POUNDS(LBS) PRICE/LB POUNDS(LBS) PRICE/LB

35,000,000 $8.80 7,000,000 $9.20

$8.70 $9.00
30,000,000 6,000,000
$8.60 $8.80
25,000,000 5,000,000 $8.60
$8.50
20,000,000 4,000,000 $8.40
$8.40
$8.20
15,000,000 $8.30 3,000,000 $8.00
$8.20
10,000,000 2,000,000 $7.80
$8.10 $7.60
5,000,000 $8.00 1,000,000
$7.40
0 $7.90 0 $7.20

• I nverse relationship between price and v olume as higher • Much low er v olume for commodity trays compared to bags,
pricing shows lower demand how ever, same price fluctuation with a w eaker inverse
relationship
Source: Nielsen AOD; All US xAOC Regions; Custom Seafood Category;
52 Weeks Ending 12/31/22
 Farm-raised shrimp
Current Market: Since 2020 Farm Raised Shrimp prices have risen 4%.
• Demand has softened and discounting, lower import v olumes, and low buying activity persist.
• I ndustry-wide, inv entories are still strong in the US and buyers are leaning towards running through existing inventories
before getting back into the market to take adv antage of lower pricing.
• Lack of adequate storage space in the US and the higher cost of capital is also impacting decisions to add more
inv entory.
• Container av ailability & v essel capacity has improv ed in the Far East. However, lower ocean freight is being offset by
excessive demurrage & per diem fees once containers arrive in the US.
• As demand & prices continue lower, farmers are expected to be reluctant to seed farms heav ily in an effort to bring
pricing to higher/more feasible levels.
• Ev en with the lower import trend, 2022 imports will be slightly abov e 2021 lev els.

HLSO Farm-Raised White Shrimp Index

5

4.5
$/LB

3.5

Source: Urner Barry HLSO Farm Raised White Shrimp 2016-2022

29
 Wild peeled undeveined small shrimp
Current Market: Since 2020, Wild PUD Shrimp Prices have increased 18%

• Global supply of wild-caught $4.50

popcorn shrimp sizes remain $4.00
scarce as fisheries in Guyana
and Ecuador continue to $3.50
struggle with catches. $3.00
• Higher fuel & logistics costs $2.50
have significantly impacted $2.00
both fisheries and many boat
$1.50
owners opt to keep boats
docked until catches improv e. $1.00

• Outlook is flat based on $0.50

continued low catch offset by $0.00
anticipated lower demand. 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Central/South American PUD survey 2019-2022

30
 Flour
Current situation: The geopolitical risk from the Black Sea region remains significant. The Russian-Ukrainian war is
likely to influence wheat prices into 2023 and keep trading volatile. From a supply perspective, the world needs
more wheat, but doubts remain regarding how many new acres can be planted to bolster tight stock levels in
the U.S. For Vital Wheat Gluten, increased demand, along with rising energy costs in Europe due to the
ongoing conflict have pushed pricing up over 90% in the past 12 months.

Source: MGEX Hard Red Spring Wheat, Chart reflects MGE Wheat + Basis
 Soybean Oil
Current situation: EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard volume proposal potentially creates a more balanced supply
and demand picture, but renewable diesel demand remains strong. The fundamentals of the market remain
slightly bullish with South American dry weather a concern. Energy markets and additional bio-fuel capacity
remain bullish watch factors. Russian aggression toward Ukraine continues to add volatility to the market.

Source: CME Group SBO

 Transportation Market Update
U.S Truckload Outlook
( M onthly Loadings Dat a, Seas onally Adjus t ed)

DAT RateView – Reefer Contract

East Coast Diesel Inv entories

PADD 1, January 2017 – Oct ober 2022
 Warehousing

Cold Chain Index, by Quarter during 2019-2022 Refrigerated Storage Services – Average Price

Not e: The percent ages are grow t h rat es in the quart er, relat ive to the same quart er in the previous year.

• •

Source: ProcurementIQ
 Electric Power
Monthly Average Historical Settlement Pricing

This chart shows the higher average spot power price in 2022.
 Natural Gas
NYMEX Historical Settlement Pricing

This chart shows the significant increase in average monthly settlement pricing in 2022 vs 2021.
 Corrugated & Paperboard

Linerboard SBS Cartons

Source: RISI Pulp, Paper, & Packaging Index

The following data is provided from NPD Supply Track and includes broadline
foodservice distribution, actual sales in pounds, and/or cases during the past 12
months ending November 2022.
The top 20+ broadline distributors including SYSCO, Performance Food Group, US
Foods, Ben E Keith, Shamrock Foods, Gordon Foodservice and others submit
weekly sales activity to NPD Supply Track.

87% of total broadline Distribution Restaurant customers

foodservice distribution is Street Business 1-19 units
included in these numbers
and does not include data Regional 20-250 units
from closed distribution to
National 250+ units
customers like Outback,
Red Lobster, Cracker Non-Commercial Schools, Colleges, Healthcare,
Barrel, Captain D’s, Long (Non-Comm) Business and Industry and others
John Silvers and others
Total seafood is not performing as well as other
key categories
All Seafood is up 0.25% YOY. In comparison
Crustaceans is largest category and Produce is up 3%.
down -1.4%.
Dairy is up 7%.
Within Crustaceans: Shrimp is up 1.5%,
Poultry is up 5%.
Crab is in decline.
Beef is up 3%.
Groundfish is up 1.8%.
Oils and Shortenings are up 6%.
Finfish is up 9.1%.
Pork is up 6%.
Mollusk is down -5.1%, primarily due to Squid.
Freshwater Fish is down -2.1%.
Flatfish is down -11.9%.
Canned tuna is down -10.2%.

Source: NPD Supply Track

Shrimp pounds increased 1.5% YOY
279 million pounds of shrimp sold between
December 2021 and November 2022.
• Up 1.5%. +4.2 million lbs.
• Inflation suggests +6% price increase.
2020-2021
• Average price sold $6.30. 274.8 million pounds
• 267,900 unique customers purchased. Average price sold: $5.94
2.8% more unique customers 2019-2020
purchasing YOY. Customer count is 225.5 million pounds
flat when compared to 2 YA. Average price sold: $5.53
Photo by Michal Mrozek on Unsplash

Source: NPD Supply Track

Growth is coming from
Lodging/Casino and Bar and Grill
DOWN -3.6% UP 24.7%
Street Customers Lodging and Casino
(1-19 units) Photo by Kevin Dunlap on Unsplash

DOWN -4.5% UP 8.6%

Regional Customers Non-Commercial
(20-250 units)

UP .41%
National Customers
(250 units +) Photo by Luca Bravo on Unsplash

Source: NPD Supply Track

 Share Of Up/Down
Shrimp Sales In Pounds

Bar & Grill 18% Up 6.1%

Seafood Casual Dining 10% Down -6.3%

Mexican Casual Dining 7% Up .6%

Long Term Healthcare 7% Up 3.6%

Family Style/Diner 5% Down -5.8%

Italian Casual Dining 3% Up 2.7%

Source: NPD Supply Track

Private Distributor Brand is largest portion and is
growing in pounds

Foodservice Manufacturer Proprietary

Distributor Brands Brand Customer Brand

50.2% 38.9% 10.9%

Shrimp sold share share

Distributor brand is Manufacturer and Proprietary

growing 4.3% in pounds Brands are down -1%.

Source: NPD Supply Track

 Larger sizes tend to show better growth
% of Up/Down
Size
Sales in Pounds
16-20 18.7% Up 5.4%

21-25 18.4% Down -2%

26-30 16.5% Down -3.5%

31-35 Constant 4.5%

41-50 9% Up 2.2%

71-100 5.4% Up 8%

100+ 1% Down -9.3%

While share is small, U15 grew 5.3%, U12 grew

10.4%, U-10 shrank -6%, U8 grew 18.4% and
U6 declined 8.2%.
Source: NPD Supply Track
 Where is the Shrimp coming from?

USA ECUADOR VIETNAM

US down -16% EC down -8% VN up 11%

INDONESIA THAILAND CHINA

ID up 16% TH down -8% CN down -12%

MEXICO ARGENTINA PERU

MX down -19% AR down -9% PE up 4%

Source: NPD Supply Track

 Breaded vs. Unbreaded

279 million pounds of Shrimp total

sold by Broadline Foodservice

234 million pounds are unbreaded

35 million pounds are breaded/battered

sauced or some other

Balance value-added configuration

Source: NPD Supply Track

 South Atlantic serves 35% of shrimp sold nationally

6.1% of
sales and 3% of
6% of sales and
up 4.1%
sales and up 1.8%
in pounds
up 1.2% in pounds
8% of in pounds
9% of sales sales and 6% of sales
and up 8.7% up 4.5% in and up 1.2%
in sales pounds in pounds
7% of sales
and down
-.3% in 35% of
16% of sales pounds
and down sales and
-3.2% in up .4% in
pounds pounds

Source: NPD Supply Track

Shrimp Panel
PANEL LEADERS:
Travis Larkin, Seafood Exchange of Florida
Michael Seidel, Performance Food Group

JANUARY | PALM SPRINGS, CALIFORNIA

Appendix
 Commodity items make up the bulk of frozen shrimp, but value-
added executions have gained +7 share points in the past 2 years
COMMODITY SHRIMP VALUE ADDED SHRIMP
100%
13.5% 13.9% 14.0% 19.2% 21.0%
80%

60%

40% 86.5% 86.1% 86.0% 80.8% 79.0%

20%

0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

• Commodity Shrimp dominates the Frozen Shrimp Segment, generating $2.9B in 2022 (79% of
overall sales) despite some softness in 2022 (dollar sales - 6.2% or -$192M)
• Value Added Shrimp, while generating just $770M in 2022 (21% of overall sales), has
consistently gained share over the years
Source: Nielsen AOD; Total US xAOC; Custom Seafood Category; 5 Years Ending 12/31/22
 Commodity shrimp saw a smaller Lent spike in 2022 than 2021
2021 2022
COMMODITY SHRIMP VALUE ADDED SHRIMP COMMODITY SHRIMP VALUE ADDED SHRIMP
AVG MONTHLY SHRIMP SALES $400M
$400M Lent Holidays AVG MONTHLY SHRIMP SALES
Lent Holidays
$350M $350M
$300M
$300M
$250M
$200M $250M
$150M $200M
$100M $150M
$50M
$100M
$0K
$50M
$0K

• In 2021, Frozen Shrimp sales averaged $306M every • In 2022, Frozen Shrimp sales averaged $295M every
four weeks four weeks (a -4% decrease vs. 2021)
• Sales spikes were driven by traditional seasonality for • Softness was driven by lower demand in the Food
the category (Lent and the Holiday season) and Mass channels

Source:Nielsen
Source: NielsenAOD;
AOD;Total
TotalUS
USxAOC;
xAOC;Custom
CustomSeafood
SeafoodCategory;
Category;2 2Years
YearsEnding
Ending12/31/22
12/31/22
 Who is going to promote shrimp?
Retail Feature Activity
Seafood – Shrimp, Raw 16-20
Retail Features Avg. $/lb.
Buying Opps

Source: Urner Barry Comtell

 Up fast and down fast
China Thailand
1,200,000

2009- 2011 loss of 40%

1,000,000

800,000

600,000
MT

2010-2013 loss of 60%

400,000

200,000

0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: FAO, industry estimates

Poll

Expected level of promotional activity compared to 2022?

❑ More

❑ Less

❑ Same