Eco 1241 Notes 2023
Eco 1241 Notes 2023
Eco 1241 Notes 2023
Department of Economics
Chapter 13
Macroeconomics refers to the study of the economy as a whole
• What is GDP
• What does it mean
• Why do we care about GDP
Economic growth rate refers to the increase in the inflation adjusted market value of the
goods and services produced by an economy over a specific period.
GDP is the total value of all final good and services produced within the boundaries of a
country in particular period (a year/quarter)
i) Total (market) value e.g. if the price of apple is R1.00, the market value of 50
apples is R50.
ii) Final goods and services e.g. A Toyota Yaris is the final product but Dunlop tire
on the Yaris is an intermediate good.
iii) Produced within the country e.g. Anglo American a South African firm, mine
coal in a Columbia South American mine, the market value of the coal mined
forms part of Columbia’s GDP
iv) In a given the period – either a quarter or a year called quarterly GDP data or
called the annual GDP data.
Second component of the definition: final goods and services. When calculating GDP,
problems such as double counting must be avoided. Double counting means counting
something twice.
Production method. e.g. The value of a motor car already includes tires and the value
of PC already includes the value of a chip inside it
Gross means before subtracting capital depreciation. The opposite of ‘gross’ is ‘net’ which
means subtracting capital depreciation.
Expenditure method
Terminology
Income Approach
Measurers GDP by summing the incomes that firms pay households for the services
of factors of production they hire (wages for labour, interest for capital, rent for land
and profit for entrepreneurship
It's possible to express the income approach formula to GDP as follows: Total National
Income + Sales Taxes + Depreciation + Net Foreign Factor Income. Total national income
is equal to the sum of all wages plus rent plus interest and profits.
• Market process and factor cost diverge because of indirect taxes and subsidies.
Indirect taxes - tax paid by consumers when they buy goods and services e.g. VAT
subsidy- payment that the government makes to a producer e.g. payment made to
daily farmers.
• To get from factor cost to market price, we add indirect taxes and subtract
subsidies.
• To get from a net measure to a gross measure we add depreciation
Income Approach
Item RBN %
The gap between expenditure approach and the income approach is called the statistical
discrepancy and is calculated as the GDP income total, minus the GDP income, minus
the GDP expenditure total.
Below is list of domestic output and national income figures for a certain year. All figures
are in billions, Use the data given to determine GDP by both the Expenditure and the
income approaches.
Transfer payments 12
Rents 14
Interest 13
Proprietor’s income 33
Net exports 11
Dividends 16
Personal taxes 26
Corporate profits 56
Calculating economic growth GDP growth= GDP current period- GDP previous
period x100
Explanation of concepts
Nominal GDP-the market value of the final production of goods and services within a
country in a given period using that year’s prices (also called “current prices”)
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Real GDP-nominal GDP adjusted for changes in the price level, using prices from a base
year (constant prices) instead of “current prices” used in nominal GDP; real GDP adjusts
the level of output for any price changes that may have occurred over time
GDP deflator-a price index used to adjust nominal GDP to find real GDP; the GDP
deflator measures the average prices of all finished goods and services produced within
a nation’s borders over time.
Base year-the year is used for comparison in the determination of price changes using
the GDP deflator price index; the deflator in a base year is always equal to 100.
Current prices-the prices at which goods are sold in a nation in a particular year; current
prices are used when calculating nominal GDP.
Constant prices- the prices from a base year that are used to calculate real GDP in
other years; this allows for a more accurate measure of how a country’s actual
output changes over time because constant prices cancel out any changes in the price
level between years.
• An increase in GDP does not necessarily mean a nation has produced more output; it
must be specified whether the GDP in question is nominal or real. An increase in nominal
GDP may just mean prices have increased, while an increase in real GDP definitely
means output increased.
• The GDP deflator is a price index, which means it tracks the average prices of goods and
services produced across all sectors of a nation's economy over time. With this index,
changes in the average price level (inflation or deflation) can be calculated between years.
However, this is not the most commonly used price index for tracking inflation and
deflation. The consumer price index (CPI) is the most commonly used price index, which
you'll learn more about later in this course.
The business cycle
• The pattern of expansion and contraction that was discerned in economic activity
over a number of years.
• A complete cycle has four elements: trough, expansion peak, contraction
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Trough
TIME
Market forces will sort out all economic of multiplier (strong upswing
problems which carries seeds of its own
destruction) when economic
growth increase, interest
increase, import prices
increase and foreign
exchange decrease
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Structuralist view
The leading indicator tends to peak before the peak and reach a trough before the ore
trough in aggregate activity. They give warning of changes: variable: the number of new
motorcars sold.
Lagging indicators – which tend to lag behind the movement in aggregate economic
activity.
Labour force participation rate – the percentage of the working-age population who are
members of the labour force. Labour force X 100
Working age population
Absorption rate – the percentage of people of working age who have jobs.
Number of people employed x 100
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Costs of unemployed
• Lost income and production
• Loss to society
• Cost human capital
Types of unemployed
1. Frictional unemployment – people entering and learning the labour force, also
called search unemployed. It is a healthy phenomenon in growing economy.
2. Structural unemployment – when changes in technology or international
completion change the skills needed to perform jobs or locations of jobs. A
mismatch between worker qualifications and job requirements.
3. Youth unemployment
4. Cyclical unemployment
When recession in the economy gives rise to unemployment because of demand
deficiency
5. Natural unemployment
Unemployment arises from frictions and structural change when there is no cyclical
unemployment full employment is a situation in which the unemployment rate
equals the natural unemployment rate.
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Policies to reduce unemployment. Study page 402 textbook (both demand and supply
side)
If inflation rises above its expected rate, unemployment falls below its natural rate
(movement up along from PC from A to B)
• If inflation falls below its expected rate, unemployment rises above its natural rate
(the movement down along PC from A to B)
Long run Phillips Curve (LRPC) Eco 2641 further study for Bcom students only.
• Shows the relationship between inflation and unemployment when the actual
inflation rate equals the expected inflation rate.
• LRPC is vertical at the natural unemployment rate
• LRPC tells us that any expected inflation rate is possible at the natural
unemployment rate (consistent with the AS-AD model which predicts that when
inflation is expected, real GDP equals potential GDP and unemployment is at the
natural rate)
• A change in the expected inflation rate shifts the SRPC but it does not shift the
long-run Phillips curves.
Unemployment
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• If the actual inflation rate falls from 10% to 6% there is a movement down the
Philips curve from A –D.
8 B
A P1
5
• When Phillips curve (pc) shift to the right an increase in inflation can be
accompanied by an increase in unemployment.
• This is called stagflation (movement from point A to Point B)
• A right ward shift in PC is caused by the same factors that give rise to a leftward
shift of as curve (as is aggregate supply curve).
Measurement of inflation
• Is a measure of the average prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed basket of
consumer goods and service.
• The CPI tells you about the value of the money in your pocket
• It measures prices at the level of the first significant commercial transaction e.g.
manufactured goods when they leave the factory gate.
• Measures the cost of production.
Differences between CPI and PPI
Consumer price index (CPI) Producer price index (PPI)
a) Distribution effects
• Inflation benefits the debtors (borrowers) at the expense of creditors(lenders)
• South Africa has a progressive personal income tax (i.e. marginal and average tax
rates increase with the income level)
• During inflation taxpayer’s nominal incomes (wages & salaries) rise even when
their real income is unchanged. (this is known as brackets creep)
• Bracket creep results from a combination of inflation and a progressive income
tax.
• An increased government revenue from taxation through inflation is called (a fiscal
dividend)
• Inflation affects poor households.
b) Economic effects
• Anticipating inflation – producers anticipate inflation more than seeking out
profitable new production opportunities.
• Speculative practices – speculation of inflation in real estate, foreign currencies
etc.
• Inflation may also discourage savings in fixed deposits
• It can also produce a balance of payments problems – increases the cost of export
industries and import-competing industries
c) Social and political effects. Page 386 textbook
d) Expected Inflation
• The greatest cost of inflation is the inflation it causes.
• An increase in the rate of inflation often reads e.g. unions may base their wage
claims on the expected high inflation
• This may result in hyperinflation if unchecked
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Causes of inflation
Demand pull Cost push
E2
All these are accompan ied by increase in Gen
eral P2
money stock
E1
Price P1
AS
AD
3
2
AD3 Level
Y1 Y2
1
AD2
AD1 Total production income
1 2 3
Total production income
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Inflation targeting
• a monetary policy framework to set inflation rate at a target range
• South Africa target inflation between 3% - 6%
Measuring the links with the rest of the world: the BOP (balance of payment)
BOP – Is the record of all transactions of all South African households, firms or
governments and the rest of the world.
Current account
Items
• Merchandise imports and exports (i.e. visible exports and imports) plus net gold
exports.
• All these constitute the trade balance (i.e. merchandise exports minus
merchandise imports plus net Gold)
• Services and payments of receipts (invisible transactions) e.g. travel, insurance
services.
• Income receipts and payments – income earned by SA residents and payments
refer to income earned by SA residents and payments refer to income earned by
non-residents in SA.
• Current transfers – social security contributions e.g. remittances, charitable
donations
Financial account
Items
Direct investment – the purpose of the investor is gain control or have a meaningful say
e.g. through acquisition of shares)
Portfolio investment – investor is interested only in the expected financial return on
investment e.g. shares or bonds
Other investment – is a residual category which includes items must be included in the
portfolio and direct investment e.g. loans
Unrecorded transaction
Captures all errors and omissions while compiling the BOP of the country
It serves to ensure that the BOP actually balances.
Poorest 20% 3 20 3
Next 20 % 7 40 10
Next 20 % 15 60 25
Next 20 % 25 80 50
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
60
10
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3. Quintile ratio
Is the ratio between the percentage of income received by the highest percent of the
population and the percentage of income received by the lowest percent of the
population? E.g. from the table above
50÷3=16.7
The higher the ratio, the greater the degree of inequality
Distribution of income in SA
• SA has the most unequal distribution of income
• The Gini co-efficient is estimated at 0, 68 the highest in the world.
Def.: Money is anything that is generally accepted as payment for goods and services
or that is accepted in settlement of debt
2. Unit of account
Is an agreed measure for stating the prices of goods and services
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Kinds of money
M1, M2 and M3
Coins / paper money / deposits/ fiduciary or credit money and cheque accounts
M = C+ D
M (Quantity of money)
M2 = M1 + all other short-term and medium – term deposits of the domestic private sector
with monetary institutions.
M3 is equal to M2 plus all long term deposit of the domestic private sector with monetary
institutions. (Money as a store of value)
SARB
Objectives:
(i) to protect the value of the currency in the interest of balanced and sustainable
economic growth in the republic
(ii) Must perform its function independently and without fear, favour or prejudice,
but there must be regular consultation between the Bank and the cabinet
member responsible for national financial matters.
• It is the amount that the various participants in the economy plan to hold in the form
of money balances.
• Transactions demand
• Demand for money as an assets
Keynes discovered two motives for holding money. He referred to the demand for money
as liquidity preference which is de noted as L
L1 Q of money Q of money
L=L1+L2
i0 Eo
E1
i1
L
lowering of the repo rate, will raise the
quantity of money to M1, ceteris paribus.
m0 m1
Mo Q of money
Monetary Policy
1. Central government e.g. concerned with the issues such as defence, foreign affairs
2. Provincial Government – concerned with housing, education, health services
3. Local Government – concerned with local roads, sewerage, street lighting, traffic
control
4. Public corporation – e.g. Eskom, Transnet, Rand water
The role of government in the economy: an overview The mix between Government
and the Market
1. The private initiative and market forces are generally more efficient than any other
possible solutions to the basic economics of what? How and whom?
2. Free markets cannot function properly without government enforcement of the
roles
3. Markets do not always produce efficient outcomes government intervention may
be required in an attempt to correct market failure.
4. Market system produce relatively efficient out comes but not equitable outcomes
since there is often a trade-off between equity and efficiency.
Market failure
Market failure occurs when the market system is unable to achieve an efficient allocation
of resources.
Excludable Non-excludable
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• SS= Market supply which is also equal to MPC (Marginal private cost)
• Without government intervention (equilibrium – is at E1 and market price is P1 Q1
respectively
• As a result of the pollution the MSC (Marginal Social Cost) is greater than the
marginal private cost (MP)
• The difference between the two represents the additional cost to society of the
pollution caused by the industries
• E2 is called socially efficient equilibrium [P2, Q2 respectively]
• E2 is where marginal social cost is equal to the price of the product
• Triangle between E2 and E1 represents the welfare loss to society the cost
imposed on society exceeds society’s willingness to pay for that unit.
• When external costs are experienced, markets tend to produce too much of the
product concerned
Asymmetric information
• Households, firms must have full information on the quality, availability and prices
of goods, services and inputs.
• E.g. when suppliers of cigarettes are aware of the health hazards of smoking but
do not release this information to potential buyers of cigarettes.
D
S
Po D
P1
E1
• It can also cause principal-agent problems e.g. when doctors increase the demand
for their service by what they do or do not tell their patients.
• Therefore, government impose standards that consumer products have to meet.
• Asymmetric information can also cause moral hazard and adverse selection.
i) Income distribution
• Free market generates an unequal distribution of income
• Government take measures usually in the form of progressive income
taxation
• Subsidy in certain goods and services (education and health)
• Transfer payment e.g. (old age pension)
• Legislation and other forms of regulation
ii) Macro-economic growth and stability
• Fiscal and monetary policies
iii) Merit goods
• Goods that are regarded as beneficial to society e.g. education, health,
shelter, fire protection and sports facilities.
v) Demerit- harmful goods to society
Government failure
- Government consists of politics and bureaucrats (people with their own motives,
ambitions, Objectives and faults.
1. Politicians
- Vote maximizing agents whose aim is to be re-elected
- Wants to be popular and try to please most people by supporting a variety of
programs which serve the interest of different groups in society.
2. Bureaucrats
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- Rational economic agents who respond to a particular set of incentives and try to
maximize their salaries, status, power, or prestige
- They know the functioning of the government more than politicians.
- Another firm of government failure is 30 rent-seeking (attempt by households/firms/
organized business / organizes labour to benefit at the expense of the society at
large)
- Economic rent is part of their remuneration.
- Democratic governments tend to respond to special interest groups and are
vulnerable to manipulation
- The only way to limit is to reduce the role of government in the economy
Nationalization Privatization
- Means that the government takes over - Transfer of ownership of assets from
the ownership or management the public sector to the private
of private enterprise sector.
Demerits of nationalization
Taxation
i) Equitable
ii) Economical
iii) Convenient
iv) Certain
Modern criteria
i) Neutrality
ii) Equity < horizontal equity, Vertical equity
iii) Administrative simplicity < tax avoidance –legal
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Types of taxes
Direct Indirect
Distinction of taxes
1. The tax is progressive – high-income earns are taxed at a higher rate than low
earners.
2. The tax is proportional – all taxpayers are taxed at the same levels
3. Tax is regressive- high-income earners are taxed at a lower rate and lower-income
earners at a high rate e.g. vat
Direct taxes
3. Company
- It is proportional
- Levied on companies as an independent entity
- The better the performance of the economy, the higher the company profits and
therefore the greater the contribution of company tax.
-
Absolute advantage
Shirts 100 50
Cell 05 10
One worker produces 100 shirts or 5 cell phones per week in Zim. One worker can
produce 50 shirts and ten cell phones per week. There it can be said that Zim has an
absolute advantage in the production of shirts and SA has an absolute advantage in the
production of cell-phone.
Comparative advantage
Cars 2 1
Barrels of wine 8 6
1. Import tariff – taxes impose on products imported into a country. Used to protect
domestic industries or sectors from foreign competition.
2. Import quotas – control the physical level of imports and are therefore a form of
direct intervention in the market mechanism
3. Subsidies- payment made to private producers by government
4. Non – tariff barriers- special licensing requirement that makes it difficult for foreign
firms to meet.
5. Exchange controls- used to restrict imports by limiting the amount of foreign
currency available for their purchase.
6. Exchange rate policy
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Exchange rates
Appreciation Depreciation
Price
Excess demand
S D
10 Q
- R 8 and Q10 indicate the equilibrium exchange rate
- DD represent demand and SS represent supply of US &
SA
- At a lower price that R8 per dollar there is an access demand for dollars and at
higher prices there is an excess supply of dollars.
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- Gold price in is quoted in dollars, a fall in the gold price means that fewer dollars
will be earned
- Decrease in supply illustrated by S1S1 means that the dollar has become expensive
as compared to the rand dollar has appreciated against the rand. This implies that
the rand has depreciated against the dollars
- Imports from US become expensive
- When the dollar depreciate, imports from US become cheaper.
Terms of trade
END.