OPEC MOMR June 2024

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
11 June 2024
Feature article:
World oil market prospects for the second half of 2024
Oil market highlights v

Feature article vii
Crude oil price movements 1
Commodity markets 7
World economy 10
World oil demand 28
World oil supply 38
Product markets and refinery operations 51
Tanker market 58
Crude and refined products trade 61
Commercial stock movements 67
Balance of supply and demand 72
Disclaimer
The data, analysis and any other information (the “information”) contained in the Monthly Oil Market Report
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Chairman of the Editorial Board
HE Haitham Al Ghais Secretary General
Editor-in-Chief
Dr. Ayed S. Al-Qahtani Director, Research Division email: aalqahtani(at)opec.org
Editor
Behrooz Baikalizadeh Head, Petroleum Studies Department email: bbaikalizadeh(at)opec.org
Contributors
Crude Oil Price Movements
Yacine Sariahmed Chief Oil Price Analyst, PSD email: ysariahmed(at)opec.org
Commodity Markets
Angel Edjang Memba Senior Financial Analyst, PSD email: aedjangmemba(at)opec.org
World Economy
Dr. Mohannad Alsuwaidan Economic Analyst, PSD email: malsuwaidan(at)opec.org
Dr. Joerg Spitzy Senior Research Analyst, PSD email: jspitzy(at)opec.org
World Oil Demand

Dr. Sulaiman Saad Senior Oil Demand Analyst, PSD email: ssaad(at)opec.org
World Oil Supply

Dr. Ali Akbar Dehghan Senior Oil Supply Analyst, PSD email: adehghan(at)opec.org
Product Markets and Refinery Operations
Tona Ndamba Chief Refinery & Products Analyst, PSD email: tndamba(at)opec.org
Tanker Markets
Douglas Linton Senior Research Specialist, PSD email: dlinton(at)opec.org
Crude and Refined Products Trade

Douglas Linton Senior Research Specialist, PSD email: dlinton(at)opec.org
Stock Movements
Dr. Aziz Yahyai Senior Research Analyst, PSD email: ayahyai(at)opec.org
Technical Team
Dr. Asmaa Yaseen Senior Modelling & Forecasting Analyst, PSD email: ayaseen(at)opec.org
Masudbek Narzibekov Senior Research Analyst, PSD email: mnarzibekov(at)opec.org
Viveca Hameder Research Specialist, PSD email: vhameder(at)opec.org
Hataichanok Leimlehner Assistant Research Specialist, PSD email: hleimlehner(at)opec.org
Statistical Services
Huda Almwasawy, Head, Data Services Department; Mhammed Mouraia, Statistical Systems Coordinator;
Pantelis Christodoulides (World Oil Demand, Stock Movements); Klaus Stoeger (World Oil Supply);
Mohammad Sattar (Crude Oil Price Movements, Crude and Refined Products Trade); Mihni Mihnev (Product
Markets and Refinery Operations); Justinas Pelenis (World Economy); Mansi Ghodsi (Commodity Markets),
Hana Elbadri (Tanker Market)
Editing and Design

James Griffin; Maureen MacNeill; Scott Laury; Matthew Quinn; Richard Murphy; Boris Kudashev; Carola Bayer;
Andrea Birnbach; Tara Starnegg
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024 i

ii OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024
Oil Market Highlights

In May, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined by $5.53, or 6.2%, m-o-m, to average $83.59/b.
Oil futures prices declined, with the ICE Brent front-month contract falling by $6.00, or 6.7%, m-o-m, to average
$83.00/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract falling $5.77, or 6.8%, to average $78.62/b. The
DME Oman front-month contract fell by $5.63, or 6.3%, m-o-m, to average $83.74/b. The front-month
ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by 23¢ to average $4.38/b. The price structure of ICE Brent and
NYMEX WTI weakened and money managers were bearish amid heavy selling. The premium of light sweet
to medium sour crudes narrowed further across all major trading hubs on a weaker light sweet market.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remained unchanged at 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively.
For US, the economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remained unchanged at 2.2% and 1.9%,
respectively. The economic growth forecast for the Eurozone remained unchanged at 0.5% for 2024 and 1.2%
for 2025. Japan’s economic growth forecasts are revised down to 0.3% in 2024 and 0.9% in 2025. China’s
economic growth forecasts remained at 4.8% in 2024 and 4.6% in 2025. India’s economic growth forecasts
remained unchanged at 6.6% for 2024 and 6.3% for 2025. Brazil’s economic growth forecast is revised up to
1.8% for 2024 but remained unchanged at 1.9% for 2025. Russia’s economic growth for 2024 is revised up to
2.9%, while the forecast for 2025 remained unchanged at 1.4%.
World Oil Demand

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 remained unchanged from last month’s estimates at 2.2 mb/d.
There were some minor downward adjustments for 1Q24 due to actual data from the OECD, more specifically
Europe and Asia Pacific. This was offset by a better-than-expected performance in the non-OECD in 1Q24.
Accordingly, OECD oil demand is now expected to grow by 0.2 mb/d while the non-OECD forecast remains at
2.0 mb/d. In 2025, global oil demand is expected to see robust growth of 1.8 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from the
previous month’s assessment. The OECD is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while demand in the non-
OECD is forecast to increase by 1.7 mb/d.
World Oil Supply

The non-Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) liquids supply (i.e., liquids supply from countries not participating
in the DoC) is expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2024, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The
main drivers for growth are expected to be the US, Canada, Brazil and Norway. In 2025, non-DoC liquids
supply growth is expected at 1.1 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The growth is
expected to be mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway. Separately, DoC natural gas liquids
(NGLs) and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d to average 8.3 mb/d this year,
followed by an increase of 20 tb/d to average 8.3 mb/d in 2025. The DoC-22 crude oil production in May
dropped by 123 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging 40.92 mb/d, as reported by available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations

In May, refinery margins eased further in all main trading hubs for the third consecutive month, as an ongoing
recovery in refinery processing rates led to product stock builds. Gasoline was the main driver of weakness
across the barrel in all regions, with ample availability amid heightened production following the conclusion of
heavy maintenance and the start of the summer season. Softening economic incentives for East-to-West flows
due to weakening export margins and strong gasoline imports from the Middle East weighed on Asian product
markets despite strengthening Asian naphtha and fuel oil crack spreads. Global refinery intake increased by
490 tb/d in May to average 80.5 mb/d, compared with 80.0 mb/d the previous month, and was 106 tb/d higher,
y-o-y.
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – May 2024 iii

Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates showed mixed movement in May, with VLCCs and Aframax generally improving while
Suezmax experienced a decline m-o-m. VLCC spot freight rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose by 10%,
m-o-m, while the West Africa-to-East route rose by 11%. Aframax rates around the Mediterranean rose by
10% in May, while the Indonesia-to-East route was up 6%. In contrast, Suezmax spot freight rates declined,
dropping by 8%, m-o-m, on the US Gulf-to-Europe route. Rates for clean tankers were higher across all
monitored routes in May, with East of Suez rates up by 10% and West of Suez rates gaining 3%.
Crude and Refined Product Trade

US crude imports rose to a six-month high in May, averaging almost 6.8 mb/d ahead of the summer driving
season, according to preliminary data. US crude exports also increased during the month to average 4.4 mb/d,
representing a y-o-y gain of over 15%. Meanwhile, US product imports declined by 2% to average 2.1 mb/d,
while product exports also fell by about 2% to average 6.5 mb/d, although this still represents an 11% y-o-y
gain. The latest complete data for China shows crude imports in April with a seasonal decline of almost 6% to
average 10.9 mb/d, while product imports reached a record high of 2.5 mb/d, supported by higher inflows of
fuel oil. India’s crude imports in April hit a two-year high of 5.2 mb/d, while product imports were the highest in
six months at just under 1.3 mb/d. This was ahead of national elections, which were seen boosting
transportation demand. In Japan, crude imports partly recovered from the weak performance in 1Q24 to
average 2.6 mb/d, while product inflows also recovered. Preliminary estimates indicate OECD Europe crude
imports were slightly lower in May, as higher inflows from North America were outpaced by declines from other
key regions.
Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary April 2024 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks were up by 16.6 mb, m-o-m. At 2,773 mb,
they were 154 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks rose by 19.5 mb, while
product stocks fell by 2.9 mb, m-o-m, respectively. OECD commercial crude stocks stood at 1,376 mb, which
is 96 mb less than the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks in April stood at 1,396 mb. This is
58 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks
increased in April by 0.1 days, m-o-m, to stand at 60.1 days. This is 2.2 days lower than the 2015–2019
average.
Balance of Supply and Demand

Demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) remains unchanged from the
previous month’s assessment to stand at about 43.2 mb/d in 2024, which is around 0.9 mb/d higher than the
estimated level for 2023. Demand for DoC crude in 2025 remains unchanged from the previous month’s
assessment to stand at 43.9 mb/d, around 0.7 mb/d higher than the estimate for 2024.
iv OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024

Feature Article
Feature Article
World oil market prospects for the second half of 2024
Despite some economic activities’ weakness in few key economies in 1Q24, (i.e. US and Japan), the steady
global economic growth has continued in 1H24. Growth in non-OECD economies has held up quite well,
and even better-than-expected in the BRIC economies. Should growth in major OECD economies
accelerate in 2H24, with non-OECD economies maintaining the momentum of 1H24, then economic growth
for the year could potentially improve further. At present, the global economic growth forecast stands at
2.8% for 2024 and 2.9% for 2025, unchanged from last month’s assessment (see Graph 1).
An expected shift towards more accommodative Graph 1: World GDP growth, y-o-y changes
monetary policies from major central banks in 2H24, %
notably the US, the Eurozone and the UK, will 3.0
2.9 2.9 2.9
depend on growth dynamics and inflationary 2.9
developments in the various economies.
2.9
From a sectorial perspective, improvements in the 2.8
2.8
industrial sector have been noticeable in non-OECD
2.8
economies, while industrial production in OECD 2.7
economies is forecast to only gradually pick-up in 2.7
2H24 from the weak levels experienced since the 2.7
beginning of the year. Globally, the services sector 2.6
maintains a stable momentum. It is projected to be 1Q24 2Q24* 3Q24* 4Q24* FY 2024*
the main contributor to the economic growth dynamic Note: * 2Q24-3Q24-4Q24 = Forecast.
in 2H24, particularly supported by travel and tourism, Source: OPEC.
with a consequent positive impact on oil demand.
With this, global oil demand is forecast to grow by an Graph 2: World oil demand, y-o-y changes
average of 2.3 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2H24. For the year mb/d
2024, it is forecast to expand by 2.2 mb/d (see 3
Graph 2). 2.2
In the OECD, oil demand is estimated to increase by 2
0.25 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2H24. This is driven mostly by
the US. OECD Europe and OECD Asia Pacific are
expected to expand only slightly. In terms of 1
products, jet kerosene and gasoline are anticipated
to be the main regional oil demand drivers, on the
back of the summer driving season and continued 0
healthy air travel activity. Diesel requirements, 1Q24 2Q24* 3Q24* 4Q24* 2024*
however, are anticipated to be subdued by softer Note: * 2Q24-3Q24-4Q24 = Forecast.
economic and manufacturing activity. Moreover, Source: OPEC.
demand for naphtha may be pressured by declining
petrochemical margins.
In the non-OECD, China is expected to be the primary oil demand driver, with other countries in the region
providing support. The ongoing air travel recovery, healthy driving levels, as well as improvements in
manufacturing sector activities are projected to support jet/kerosene, gasoline, and distillate demand in the
region. Non-OECD oil demand is forecast to grow on average by 2.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2H24. In terms of the
main products, gasoline and jet fuel are set to lead regional oil demand growth, followed by diesel, LPG and
naphtha. Overall, non-OECD oil demand is projected to average 2.1 mb/d in 2024.
Following y-o-y estimated growth of 1.8 mb/d in 1H24, non-DoC liquids supply is forecast to expand by
0.7 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2H24. For the entire year, non-DoC liquids supply in 2024 is anticipated to grow by
1.2 mb/d, y-o-y. On a regional basis, OECD liquids supply (excluding Mexico) is set to rise by 0.4 mb/d in
2H24, y-o-y, driven by the US, Canada and Norway. At the same time, liquids supply from the non-OECD
region (excluding DoC participating countries) is forecast to rise by 0.2 mb/d in 2H24, y-o-y. Latin America
is forecast to be the main driver of production growth in the non-OECD, with an expansion of 0.3 mb/d in
2H24, y-o-y, while supply output in Other Asia is expected to decline.
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024 v

Feature Article
vi OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024

Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Oil Market Highlights iii
Feature Article v
World oil market prospects for the second half of 2024 v
Crude Oil Price Movements 1

Crude spot prices 1
OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value 3
The oil futures market 3
The futures market structure 5
Crude spreads 6
Commodity Markets 7
Trends in selected commodity markets 7
Investment flows into commodities 9
World Economy 10
OECD 12
Non-OECD 18
The impact of the US dollar (USD) and inflation on oil prices 27
World Oil Demand 28

OECD 29
Non-OECD 33
World Oil Supply 38

OECD 40
DoC NGLs and non-conventional liquids 48
DoC crude oil production 49
OPEC crude oil production 50
Product Markets and Refinery Operations 51

Refinery margins 51
Refinery operations 52
Product markets 53
Tanker Market 58
Spot fixtures 58
Sailings and arrivals 58
Dirty tanker freight rates 59
Clean tanker freight rates 60
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024 vii

Table of Contents
Crude and Refined Products Trade 61

US 61
China 62
India 63
Japan 64
OECD Europe 64
Eurasia 65
Commercial Stock Movements 67

OECD 67
US 68
Japan 69
EU-14 plus UK and Norway 70
Singapore, Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) and Fujairah 71
Balance of Supply and Demand 72

Balance of supply and demand in 2024 72
Balance of supply and demand in 2025 72
Appendix 74
Glossary of Terms 80
Abbreviations 80
Acronyms 80
viii OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024


In May, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value averaged $5.53, or 6.2%, lower, m-o-m, to stand at
$83.59/b, with all ORB component values falling alongside their respective crude oil benchmarks.
Crude oil futures experienced a decline amid speculative selloffs, expectations of easing geopolitical risks,
uncertainty about monetary policies from central banks, and mixed economic indicators that weighed on
market sentiment. Speculative selloffs throughout the month contributed to a price decline and increased
market volatility. Money managers sold an equivalent of 173 mb of oil in ICE Brent futures markets.
The ICE Brent front-month contract declined by $6.00, or 6.7%, to average $83.00/b, and NYMEX WTI fell
by $5.77, or 6.8%, to average $78.62/b. DME Oman crude oil futures prices decreased by $5.63, or 6.3%,
to settle at $83.74/b.
Hedge funds and other money managers closed a large volume of bullish futures and options positions on
the ICE Brent futures market. At the same time, they sharply raised short positions to their highest since
November 2020. Combined futures and options net long positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI dropped
to their lowest level since last January.
The market structure of all three crude benchmarks ─ ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman ─ weakened
in May compared with the previous month, with the nearest time spreads of Brent forwards flipping into
contango in the second half of the month. Diminishing supply-risk premiums and selling pressure from
money managers weighed more on the front-month contract compared to forward contracts, which resulted
in the flattening of the front-end of oil futures forward curves.
The premium of light sweet crude over medium sour crude continued to narrow in May, a trend observed
across all major regions for several consecutive months. High availability of light sweet crude, especially
from increased US crude exports, and a reduction in gasoline and diesel crack spreads in all refining hubs,
negatively impacted the value of light sweet crude, while medium and heavy sour crude values experienced
comparatively a less significant decline.
Crude spot prices

In May, crude spot prices averaged lower, reversing Graph 1 - 1: Crude oil price movements
all previous gains, mainly due to heavy selling in the US$/b
oil futures market and changes in the market's 100
perception of short-term oil market outlooks.
90
The decline in prices was more pronounced in the
light sweet Brent benchmark, as the selloff from 80
speculators was concentrated in ICE Brent futures
and options contracts. Lower gasoline and diesel 70
crack spreads in major trading hubs added downward
pressure to light sweet crudes. This largely offset a 60
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Jun 24
draw in US crude stocks and higher global oil refinery

intakes. High crude supply availability in Northwest
Europe and supplies from the US Gulf Coast (USGC),
weighed on the value of crude differentials in the OPEC Basket North Sea Dated WTI
Atlantic Basin and pushed the value of the North Sea Sources: Argus, OPEC and Platts.
Dated benchmark lower.
The Dubai benchmark fell the least among all others, limited by the lower availability of sour crude in the spot
market and firm demand from Asian refiners. The strength of the sour crude market in Asia was also reflected
in the sharp decline of the front-month Brent/Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS).
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024 1

Spot prices declined more than futures prices, assuming a well-supplied crude market, specifically for prompt
loading volumes in Northwest Europe. This was reflected in the narrowing of the North Sea Dated-ICE Brent
spread, which flipped to a discount in the second half of November. On a monthly average, the North Sea
Dated-ICE Brent spread fell by $1.70 in May, standing at a discount of $1.18/b, compared to a premium of
52¢/b in April.
Among spot benchmarks, North Sea Dated and WTI's front-month declined the most compared to the sour
Dubai benchmark, with North Sea Dated down $8.07, or 9.0%, m-o-m, to $81.82/b and WTI falling $5.86, or
6.9%, m-o-m, to stand at $78.73/b. Dubai's front-month contract dropped by $5.01, or 5.6%, m-o-m, to settle
at $84.11/b.
Table 1 - 1: OPEC Reference Basket and selected crudes, US$/b
Change Year-to-date
OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) Apr 24 May 24 May 24/Apr 24 % 2023 2024
ORB 89.12 83.59 -5.53 -6.2 80.17 83.65
Arab Light 90.64 85.60 -5.04 -5.6 82.00 85.28
Basrah Medium 87.01 81.58 -5.43 -6.2 77.10 81.67
Bonny Light 93.17 84.16 -9.01 -9.7 80.96 86.29
Djeno 82.44 74.37 -8.07 -9.8 73.19 76.79
Es Sider 89.34 81.27 -8.07 -9.0 79.61 83.86
Iran Heavy 88.79 84.13 -4.66 -5.2 80.46 83.41
Kuwait Export 89.76 85.15 -4.61 -5.1 81.58 84.29
Merey 74.91 70.55 -4.36 -5.8 59.76 70.06
Murban 89.19 84.10 -5.09 -5.7 80.83 83.58
Rabi Light 89.43 81.36 -8.07 -9.0 80.18 83.78
Sahara Blend 90.79 82.07 -8.72 -9.6 81.76 85.48
Zafiro 91.29 83.22 -8.07 -8.8 80.89 85.62
Other Crudes
North Sea Dated 89.89 81.82 -8.07 -9.0 80.64 84.22
Dubai 89.12 84.11 -5.01 -5.6 79.75 83.41
Isthmus 82.92 77.38 -5.54 -6.7 67.93 77.42
LLS 87.60 81.44 -6.16 -7.0 78.22 81.67
Mars 85.06 79.16 -5.90 -6.9 74.32 79.03
Minas 96.43 89.27 -7.16 -7.4 78.85 87.63
Urals 73.02 65.43 -7.59 -10.4 47.76 67.07
WTI 84.59 78.73 -5.86 -6.9 75.69 78.90
Differentials
North Sea Dated/WTI 5.30 3.09 -2.21 - 4.95 5.32
North Sea Dated/LLS 2.29 0.38 -1.91 - 2.42 2.55
North Sea Dated/Dubai 0.77 -2.29 -3.06 - 0.89 0.81
Sources: Argus, Direct Communication, OPEC and Platts.
Most crude differentials in the Atlantic Basin weakened, pressured by high supply from the US, weak gasoline
and diesel margins, and soft buying interest from some European and Asian buyers.
North Sea crude differentials of light sweet grades weakened in May on the high availability of alternative
grades, including US light sweet crude, and a drop in gasoline and middle distillate product margins. The
Forties and Ekofisk crude differentials declined in May by $1.53 and 38¢, respectively, m-o-m, to settle at a
discount of 82¢/b and a premium of $1.49/b. However, sour crude strengthened, with crude differentials for
Johan Sverdrup rising against North Sea Dated on firm demand for the grade. Johan Sverdrup differentials
rose 81¢/b, m-o-m, in May, to an average premium of 29¢/b.
West African crude differentials weakened in May on soft demand from European and Asian buyers and ample
availability of US light sweet crude in the Atlantic Basin. Unsold volumes for June loadings weighed on crude
differentials. On a monthly average, Bonny Light, Forcados and Qua Iboe crude differentials to North Sea
Dated declined by $1.37, $1.73 and $1.55, respectively, to stand at premiums of 39¢/b, $1.02/b and 68¢/b.
Cabinda differentials also fell, m-o-m, by 17¢ on average, to a discount of 67¢/b, compared with a 50¢/b
discount in April. Similarly, in the Mediterranean, crude differentials of light sweet crude Saharan Blend
weakened last month, falling by 47¢, m-o-m, to stand at a discount of 34¢/b. Azeri Light crude weakened
against the North Sea Dated by 30¢ to stand at a premium of $1.90/b. Caspian light sour CPC Blend crude
declined by 66¢ to stand at a $2.99/b discount to North Sea Dated.
2 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024

In the Middle East spot market, several crude differentials fell against Dubai. The Oman crude differential
declined by 77¢, m-o-m, to a premium of $1.55/b.
In the USGC, Light Louisiana Sweet (LLS) and Mars sour differentials weakened slightly against the WTI
benchmark. Sour crude fell less than light sweet crude due to the lower availability of sour crude in the region.
LLS and Mars sour crude differentials against WTI fell in May, m-o-m, decreasing by 25¢ and 2¢, respectively,
to register premiums of $2.75/b and 45¢/b.
OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value

In May, the ORB value averaged $5.53, or 6.2%, lower, m-o-m, to stand at $83.59/b, with all ORB component
values falling alongside their respective crude oil benchmarks. This largely offset higher official crude selling
prices and mixed movement in crude differentials. On a yearly average, the ORB was up $3.48, or 4.3%, from
$80.17/b in 2023, to an average of $83.65/b in 2024, y-t-d.
All ORB component values declined last month alongside their respective crude oil benchmarks. West and
North African Basket components – Bonny Light, Djeno, Es Sider, Girassol, Rabi Light, Sahara Blend, and
Zafiro – fell the most, declining by $8.34, m-o-m, or 9.3% on average, to $81.08/b. Multiple region destination
grades – Arab Light, Basrah Light, Iran Heavy, and Kuwait Export – decreased by $4.93, m-o-m, or 5.5% on
average, to settle at $84.12/b. Murban crude price fell by $5.09, or 5.7% on average, to settle at $84.10/b, and
the Merey crude component was down by $4.36, m-o-m, or 5.8% on average, to settle at $70.55/b.
The oil futures market

Crude oil futures experienced a significant decline in May, amid speculative selloffs, expectations of easing
geopolitical risks, and mixed economic indicators, which weighed on market sentiment.
Speculative selloffs throughout the month in ICE Brent-related futures and options contracts contributed to the
sharp price decline and increased market volatility. Traders’ perceptions of easing geopolitical tensions played
a significant role in reducing risk premiums, which alleviated some upward pressure on oil prices. In May,
money managers sold an equivalent of 173 mb of oil in ICE Brent futures markets.
Additionally, uncertainty regarding monetary policies from central banks, specifically the US Federal Reserve
(Fed), amid the potential for prolonged higher interest rates and ongoing inflation, weighed on market
sentiment. Data showing higher-than-expected wholesale prices in April renewed these worries. This was
coupled with weaker-than-expected US GDP growth in 1Q24 and disappointing jobs data further dampened
market sentiment, with uncertainty surrounding the direction of the Fed's monetary policy weighing particularly
heavily on the market. Uncertainty regarding the strength of China's economic and demand growth also
weighed on market sentiment.
A timid start to the driving season with lower gasoline and middle distillate margins in the Atlantic Basin
weighed on market sentiment. EIA weekly data showed a decline in US gasoline demand ahead of the
Memorial Day holiday weekend, which added to the overall bearish sentiment in the refining margins outlook.
This was coupled with a solid m-o-m increase in US crude production in February, according to EIA monthly
data, which largely offset weekly EIA data that showed a decline in US crude stocks over May, and the supply
concerns connected to wildfires in Canada.
Table 1 - 2: Crude oil futures, US$/b
Change Year-to-date
Crude oil futures Apr 24 May 24 May 24/Apr 24 % 2023 2024
NYMEX WTI 84.39 78.62 -5.77 -6.8 75.69 78.84
ICE Brent 89.00 83.00 -6.00 -6.7 80.94 83.50
DME Oman 89.37 83.74 -5.63 -6.3 79.66 83.53
Spread
ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI 4.61 4.38 -0.23 -5.0 5.25 4.66
Note: Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.
Sources: CME, DME, ICE and OPEC.
The ICE Brent front-month contract declined by $6.00 in May, or 6.7%, m-o-m, to average $83.00/b, and
NYMEX WTI fell by $5.77, or 6.8%, m-o-m, to average $78.62/b. Y-t-d, ICE Brent was $2.56, or 3.2%, higher
at $83.50/b, and NYMEX WTI was higher by $3.15, or 4.2%, at $78.84/b, compared with the same period a
year earlier. DME Oman crude oil futures prices decreased in May by $5.63, or 6.3%, m-o-m, to settle at
$83.74/b. Y-t-d, DME Oman was higher by $3.87, or 4.9%, at $83.53/b.

The ICE Brent–NYMEX WTI first-month spread narrowed in May as ICE Brent fell more than NYMEX WTI, but
the spread remained wide at a level above $4/b. Heavy selling pressure in Brent-related futures contracts and
a lower Brent-related risk premium weighed heavily on the value of Brent. Signs of high light sweet crude
availability in Northwest Europe exerted downward pressure on Brent. Meanwhile, lower crude stocks in the
US and sustained crude exports from the USGC helped limit the drop of NYMEX WTI. The ICE Brent-NYMEX
WTI first month spread narrowed by 23¢ in May compared to the April average to stand at $4.38/b. The spread
between North Sea Dated and WTI Houston also narrowed last month, falling by $1.87 to a premium of $1.70/b,
which supported US crude exports.
Hedge funds and other money managers closed a large volume of bullish futures and options positions in the
ICE Brent futures market, while sharply raising short positions to their highest since November 2020. This
fuelled volatility and accelerated the decline in oil futures prices. Combined futures and options net long
positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI dropped to their lowest level since last January. Between late April
and the week of 28 May, hedge funds and other money managers sold an equivalent of 144 mb of oil in Brent
and WTI futures and options positions. Selling was essentially in ICE Brent, as related net long positions fell
by 53.9% in May, while net long positions rose by 16.6% in NYMEX WTI. Total open interest rose slightly by
0.4% during the same period, driven by the increase in ICE Brent open interest, which rose by 1.3%.
Graph 1 - 2: NYMEX WTI vs. Managed Money Graph 1 - 3: ICE Brent vs. Managed Money
net long positions net long positions
US$/b 1,000 contracts US$/b 1,000 contracts
100 350 100 350
300 300
90 250 90 250
200 200
80 80
150 150
70 100 70 100
50 50
60 0 60 0
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Jun 24
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Jun 24
Managed money net long positions (RHS) Managed money net long positions (RHS)
NYMEX WTI (LHS) ICE Brent (LHS)
Sources: CFTC, CME and OPEC. Sources: ICE and OPEC.
In May, money managers sold an equivalent of about 173 mb in ICE Brent contracts, liquidating around a third
of bullish positions, while raising bearish positions, betting on lower prices. Combined Brent-related futures
and options net long positions fell by 173,020 lots, or 53.9%, over the month, to stand at 147,753 contracts in
the week of 28 May, its lowest since December 2023, according to the ICE Exchange. This was due to a rise
in short positions by 41,078 lots, or 55.2%, to 115,481 contracts, while long positions decreased by
131,942 lots, or 33.4%, to 263,234 contracts over the same period.
Meanwhile, money managers raised bullish NYMEX WTI positions, buying an equivalent of 29 mb, following
the liquidation of 57 mb in April, in a sign of shifting perceptions among speculators regarding the NYMEX WTI
contract. This was mainly due to short covering. Speculators increased net long positions by 28,740 lots, or
16.6%, between the weeks of 30 April and 28 May, to 201,429 contracts, according to the US Commodity
Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The increase in net long positions was mainly driven by a sharp decline
in short positions by 40,713 lots, or 52.1%, to 37,428 contracts. During the same period, long positions declined
by 11,973 lots, or 4.8%, to stand at 238,857 contracts.
The long-to-short ratio of speculative positions in the NYMEX WTI contract rose to 6:1 in the week of 28 May,
compared with 3:1 in the week of 30 April. However, the ICE Brent long-to-short ratio fell to 2:1 in the week of
28 May, compared to 5:1 in the week of 30 April. Open interest volumes related to NYMEX WTI futures and
options fell slightly in May by 0.8%, or 17,090 lots, to stand at 2.23 million contracts in the week ending 28 May.
Open interest volumes related to ICE Brent futures and options increased by 1.3%, or 40,092 contracts,
m-o-m, to stand at 3.03 million contracts in the week ending 28 May.

The futures market structure

The market structure of all three crude benchmarks ─ ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman ─ weakened
in May compared with the previous month, with the nearest time spreads of Brent forwards flipping into
contango in the second half of the month. Diminishing supply-risk premiums and selling pressure from money
managers weighed more on the first-month contract compared to forward contracts, which resulted in a
flattening of the front end of the oil futures forward curves. The structures of light sweet benchmarks – Brent
and WTI – weakened the most amid signs of a well-supplied physical crude market in the Atlantic Basin,
weakening refining economics, and the availability of unsold volumes which weighed on prompt-month
contracts.
Graph 1 - 4: ICE Brent forward Graph 1 - 5: NYMEX WTI forward Graph 1 - 6: DME Oman forward
curves curves curves
US$/b US$/b US$/b
85 85 85
80 80 80
75 75 75
70 70 70
65 65 65
1FM 4FM 7FM 10FM 1FM 4FM 7FM 10FM 1FM 4FM 7FM 10FM
1 May 24 15 May 24 1 May 24 15 May 24 1 May 24 15 May 24
24 May 24 7 Jun 24 24 May 24 7 Jun 24 24 May 24 7 Jun 24
Sources: ICE and OPEC. Sources: CME and OPEC. Sources: DME and OPEC.
The ICE Brent crude futures structure flattened in May, with the nearest inter-month time spread – the
ICE Brent M1/M2– flipping briefly into contango late in the month. High crude supply availability in the Atlantic
Basin, including in Northwest Europe, was boosted by the arrival of WTI Midland from the USGC amid soft
demand from European refiners and weaker light distillate margins, which weighed on the value of Brent. The
ICE Brent M1/M3 spread narrowed last month by 98¢ to stand at a backwardation of 85¢/b. Opening West-to-
East arbitrages, as it was reflected in the drop in the EFS Dubai spread, somewhat alleviated the pressure on
Brent and limited further weakening of the backwardation. ICE Brent’s M1/M6 spread also weakened but
stayed in a backwardation of $2.37/b on average in May, falling by $1.78, m-o-m, from a backwardation of
$4.15/b in April.
The front end of the NYMEX WTI forward curve weakened despite lower crude stocks in the US and short
covering from speculators. The NYMEX WTI M1/M3 spread remained in a backwardation of 90¢/b in May,
falling by 59¢, m-o-m, from a backwardation of $1.49/b in April.
The DME Oman price backwardation also narrowed last month, as prompt-month prices came under
downward pressure due to improving West-to-East arbitrage opportunities, reflected in a falling EFS Dubai
spread, which encourages more crude flows from the Atlantic Basin to Asia, weighing on the value of Dubai-
linked grades. This was despite firm demand in the East of Suez spot market, including from Asian refiners,
and low availability of sour crude. The DME Oman M1/M3 spread narrowed by 76¢, m-o-m, to a backwardation
of $1.01/b in April.
In terms of the M1/M3 structure, the North Sea Brent M1/M3 spread narrowed in May on a monthly average
by $1.75 to a backwardation of 26¢/b, compared with $2.01/b in April. The Dubai M1/M3 spread narrowed in
May on average by 47¢ to a backwardation of $1.61/b, compared with $2.08/b in April. The WTI M1/M3 spread
also narrowed last month by 61¢, to a backwardation of 97¢/b, compared to a backwardation of $1.57/b in
April.

Crude spreads
The premium of light sweet crude over medium sour crude continued to narrow in May, a trend observed
across all major regions for several consecutive months, due to the continuous softening of market
fundamentals for light sweet crude. This was primarily driven by the high availability of light sweet crude,
especially from increased US crude exports, and a reduction in gasoline and diesel crack spreads in all refining
hubs, which negatively impacted the value of light sweet crude. Conversely, the value of medium and heavy
sour crudes experienced a less significant decline compared to light sweet crudes. This was supported by
robust demand for medium sour crude and a tighter supply of sour crude in certain regions. Additionally, the
contraction of the spread between light/medium distillates and heavy distillate product margins, such as the
gasoline-HSFO and diesel-HSFO spreads, contributed to the narrowing differential between sweet and sour
crude.
In Europe, the sour market weakened less compared Graph 1 - 7: Differentials in Asia, Europe and USGC
to the light sweet market, as low supply availability of US$/b
sour crude in Northwest Europe, lower availability of 30
high sulphur fuel oil, and higher fuel oil margins
20
supported the value of sour crude. The crack spread
of high sulphur fuel oil against Brent in Northwest 10
Europe rose about $6/b, m-o-m, to its most narrow 0
monthly discount since September 2023. Meanwhile,
the high supply availability of light sweet crude in -10
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Jun 24
Northwest Europe, including from USGC markets,
amid soft European demand, weighed on the value of
light sweet crude. This is in addition to a sharp decline
in gasoline margins in Northwest Europe, which fell Tapis-Dubai
North Sea Dated-Urals
by nearly $9/b, m-o-m, in May. The Ekofisk–Johan LLS-Mars
Sverdrup spread narrowed in May by $1.30, m-o-m, Sources: Argus, OPEC and Platts.
to stand at $1.10/b, as the value of Johan Sverdrup
(medium sour crude) was buoyed by firm demand for prompt loading cargoes amid a lower availability of sour
crude in Europe. Urals crude differentials to the North Sea Dated also narrowed by 49¢, m-o-m, to stand at a
discount of $16.39/b.
In Asia, the Tapis/Dubai spread fell sharply in May as the Brent/Dubai spread narrowed significantly, dropping
to a deep discount. This has made the West-to-East arbitrage more favourable for Brent and WTI-linked
crudes, which sharply reduced the premium of local sweet crude in the East of Suez market such as Tapis.
The Brent-Dubai spread fell by $3.06, m-o-m, to stand at a discount of $2.29/b, compared to a premium of 77¢
in April. On a monthly average, the Brent/Dubai EFS spread also narrowed by $1.12/b, m-o-m, to stand at
$1.91/b in May. Meanwhile, the medium sour Middle East crudes remained supported by firm demand in the
spot market from Asian buyers and higher refining margins for HSFO. The light sweet Tapis premium over
medium sour Dubai fell by $4.75 to stand at $2.04/b.
In the USGC, the LLS premium over medium sour Mars also narrowed in May by 26¢/b, m-o-m, to stand at
$2.28/b. The sour crude market on the USGC coast was supported by higher demand from domestic refiners
in the USGC amid higher refinery intakes, a rise of high sulphur fuel oil, and tighter sour crude markets in
Latin America.

Commodity Markets
Commodity Markets
Commodity price indices diverged in May after moving in the same direction for two consecutive months.
The energy price index receded in May, while the base and precious metals indices continued to advance
over the same period.
The futures market continued to display mixed sentiment on energy commodities in May. Combined money
managers' net length rose for a third consecutive month in May, while combined open interest decreased
in the same period after four consecutive months of increases.
Energy commodity prices received some support from a spike in cooling demand amid warmer-than-
expected weather. In terms of non-energy commodity prices, ongoing improvements in global industrial
activity remained supportive along with China’s recently announced fiscal support policy.
Trends in selected commodity markets

The energy price index receded in May after four consecutive months of gains. The index fell by 6.4%,
m-o-m, impacted by underperformance in average crude oil prices over the same period. A rally of natural gas
prices in the US and the EU, coupled with gains in coal prices, partially offset the index’s losses. The index
was up by 5.9% y-o-y.
Table 2 - 1: Commodity prices
Monthly averages % Change Year-to-date
Commodity Unit
Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 May 24/Apr 24 2023 2024
Energy* Index 104.2 109.6 102.6 -6.4 107.9 104.0
Coal, Australia US$/mt 131.5 135.0 142.0 5.2 213.5 131.5
Crude oil, average US$/b 83.5 88.0 81.4 -7.5 78.7 82.2
Natural gas, US US$/mbtu 1.5 1.6 2.1 33.5 2.5 2.0
Natural gas, Europe US$/mbtu 8.6 9.1 10.1 11.4 14.8 9.1
Non-energy* Index 109.8 115.0 115.1 0.1 112.9 110.9
Base metal* Index 107.6 118.3 124.8 5.5 114.5 111.7
Precious metals* Index 162.0 175.8 179.0 1.8 146.7 164.2
Note: * World Bank commodity price indices (2010 = 100).
Sources: World Bank and OPEC.
Average crude oil prices fell in May after four consecutive months of gains. Prices fell by 7.5%, m-o-m,
pressured by sell-offs in the futures markets. Prices were up by 9.9%, y-o-y.
Henry Hub's natural gas prices advanced for a second consecutive month in May, increasing by 33.5%,
m-o-m. Prices rallied on the back of higher domestic cooling demand amid warmer-than-expected weather
and an increase in US LNG demand, particularly from the Asian region. However, prices remained at historical
lows (at an average of $2.1/mmbtu in May), capped by strong domestic production. Prices were down by 0.7%
y-o-y.
Natural gas prices in Europe rose for a third consecutive month. The average Title Transfer Facility (TTF) price
went from $9.1/mmbtu in April to $10.1/mmbtu in May, an 11.4%, m-o-m, increase. According to data from
Gas Infrastructure Europe, EU storage levels were at 70% capacity as of 31 May of this year. Despite these
healthy storage levels, prices remained sensitive to geopolitical developments. Moreover, expected plant
maintenance outages at some Norwegian gas facilities this summer season renewed concerns over supply
risk, thus adding upward pressure on prices. Prices were essentially flat y-o-y.
Australian thermal coal prices advanced for a third consecutive month in May, rising by 5.2%, m-o-m.
Increased demand for cooling in Asia added upward pressure to prices amid ongoing heat waves. Prices were
further supported by China’s seasonal restocking ahead of the summer season. However, prices were capped
by higher exports from Indonesia along with strong domestic production in China. Prices were down by 11.5%
y-o-y.
The non-energy price index rose for a fourth consecutive month in May, edging up by 0.1%, m-o-m, supported
by the base metal index. Gains were nearly offset by a decline in the agriculture index, which fell by 2.2%,
m-o-m, over the same period. The non-energy price index was up by 2.8%, y-o-y.

Commodity Markets
Graph 2 - 1: Major commodity price indices Graph 2 - 2: Inventories at the LME

Index 1,000 tonnes 1,000 tonnes
220 300 1,000
180 Base year 2010 = 100
140 750
200
100 500
60 100
250
20
0 0
Mar 23
Mar 24
Sep 22
Nov 22
Sep 23
Nov 23
May 22
May 23
May 24
Jul 22
Jan 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Energy Non-energy
Agriculture Base metals Copper Lead
HH natural gas Gold Nickel Zinc
Sources: World Bank, S&P Goldman Sachs, Pr. Aluminium (RHS)
Haver Analytics and OPEC. Sources: LME, Thomson Reuters and OPEC.
The base metal index rose for a third consecutive month in May, increasing by 5.5%, m-o-m. Base metal prices
were supported by ongoing improvements in global industrial activity. The global manufacturing PMI rose to
50.9 in May, up from 50.3 in April, a 1.2% increase, m-o-m. It is worth noting that the global manufacturing PMI
has been above expansionary territory for four consecutive months. Base metal prices were further supported
by China’s announcements in May regarding fiscal support for the property and construction sectors. The base
metal index was up by 18.1%, y-o-y.
Aluminium prices rose for a third consecutive month in May, increasing by 2.9%, m-o-m. Prices were up by
14.2%, y-o-y. LME warehouse inventories rose by 79.6%, m-o-m, over the same period, and they were up by
63.1%, y-o-y. Cancelled warrants rose for a second consecutive month, by 32.8%, m-o-m, in May, and they
were up by more than 100%, y-o-y. On-warrants rose by more than 100%, m-o-m, and were up by 36.4%,
y-o-y.
Copper prices advanced for a third consecutive month in May, rising by 6.8%, m-o-m, and by 23.3%, y-o-y. At
LME warehouses, inventories fell by 8.9%, m-o-m, in May, and they were up by 30.0%, y-o-y. Cancelled
warrants fell by 34.9%, m-o-m, in May, and they were up by more than 100%, y-o-y. On-warrants fell by 3.4%,
m-o-m, in May, and they were up by 16.6%, y-o-y.
Nickel prices rose for a fourth consecutive month in May, increasing by 7.7%, m-o-m. Prices were down by
10.7%, y-o-y. At LME warehouses, inventories rose for a second consecutive month in May, increasing by
7.2%, m-o-m, and rising by more than 100%, y-o-y. Cancelled warrants fell by 18.1%, m-o-m, in May, and they
were up by 92.0%, y-o-y. On-warrants rose by 9.4%, m-o-m, in May, and they were up by more than 100%,
y-o-y.
Zinc prices increased for a third consecutive month in May, rising by 8.3%, m-o-m. Prices were down by 19.5%,
y-o-y. At LME warehouses, inventories decreased by 1.3%, m-o-m, in May, however, they were up by more
than 100% y-o-y. Cancelled warrants fell by 3.5%, m-o-m, in May, however, they were up by more than 100%
y-o-y. On-warrants decreased by 1.0%, m-o-m, in May, but they were up by more than 100%, y-o-y.
Lead prices rose for a second consecutive month in May, by 4.3%, m-o-m, and they were up by 6.6%, y-o-y.
At LME warehouses, inventories fell by 18.9%, m-o-m, but were up by more than 100%, y-o-y. Cancelled
warrants fell by 17.3%, m-o-m, but were up by more than 100%, y-o-y. On-warrants fell by 19.6%, m-o-m, in
May, and they were up by more than 100%, y-o-y.
Iron ore prices continued to advance in May, increasing by 10.9%, m-o-m, and they rose by 13.1%, y-o-y.
China’s steel industry PMI advanced in May to 49.80, up from 47.90 in April, a 4.0% increase, m-o-m, and a
41.5% increase, y-o-y.
The precious metals index rose for a third consecutive month in May, increasing by 1.8%, m-o-m. Gold, silver
and platinum prices also advanced over the same period, rising by 0.8%, 6.8% and 7.9%, m-o-m, respectively.
‘Higher-for-longer’ interest rate expectations coupled with higher central bank buying supported gold prices.
The index was up by 18.1% y-o-y; gold and silver prices were also up by 18.0% and 21.0%, y-o-y, respectively;
meanwhile, platinum prices were down by 4.5%, y-o-y.

Commodity Markets
Investment flows into commodities

Combined money managers' net length rose for a third consecutive month in May, increasing by 19.9%,
m-o-m. The increase was driven by natural gas, copper and gold but was partially offset by copper and gold
and a decrease in crude oil. Combined net length was up by 72.9%, y-o-y, supported by gold and natural gas,
but partially offset by a decrease in copper and crude oil.
Combined open interest (OI) receded in May after four consecutive months of increases, falling by 2.2%,
m-o-m. OI decreased across all selected commodities except copper. OI was up by 6.5% y-o-y, supported by
increases across all selected commodities, except crude oil.
Table 2 - 2: CFTC data on non-commercial positions, 1,000 contracts
Open interest Long Short Net length
Selected commodity
Apr 24 May 24 Apr 24 May 24 Apr 24 May 24 Apr 24 % OI May 24 % OI
Crude oil 2,327 2,228 263 220 64 65 199 9 155 7
Natural gas 1,579 1,560 226 215 324 218 -99 -6 -3 0
Gold 882 860 200 202 26 25 174 20 177 21
Copper 389 414 121 135 62 66 59 15 69 17
Note: Data on this table is based on a monthly average.
Open interest includes both commercial and non-commercial positions.
Sources: CFTC and OPEC.
Total crude oil (WTI) OI decreased in May after four consecutive months of increases, falling by 4.3%,
m-o-m. At the same time, money managers cut net length by 21.9%, m-o-m. OI was down by 7.4%, y-o-y, and
money managers' net length was down by 1.9% over the same period.
Total Henry Hub natural gas OI experienced a monthly decrease in May, falling by 1.2%, m-o-m. Meanwhile,
money managers increased net length by 96.8%, m-o-m, over the same period. OI was up by 14.6%, y-o-y,
and net length was up by 93.1% over the same period.
Gold's OI receded in May after two consecutive months of increases, falling by 2.5%, m-o-m. Meanwhile,
money managers continued to increase the net length by 30.5%, m-o-m, over the same period. OI was up by
13.6%, y-o-y, and net length was up by 30.5% over the same period.
Copper's OI rose for a fifth consecutive month, increasing by 6.4%, m-o-m, in May. Money managers increased
their net length by 18.2%, m-o-m, over the same period. OI was up by 81.6%, y-o-y, and net length was up by
more than 100% over the same period.
Graph 2 - 3: Money managers’ activity in key Graph 2 - 4: Money managers’ activity in key
commodities, net length commodities, as % of open interest
1,000 contracts %
400 25
20
300
15
200
10
100 5
0 0
-100 -5
-200 -10
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
WTI Gold Copper Natural gas WTI Gold Natural gas Copper
Note: Data on this graph is based on a monthly average. Note: Data on this graph is based on a monthly average.
Sources: CFTC and OPEC. Sources: CFTC and OPEC.

World Economy
World Economy
Economic growth momentum remained steady in 1H24, significantly supported by better-than-expected
performance in the non-OECD economies. In particular, BRIC countries surpassed initial projections, while
within the OECD, the 1Q24 output dynamic, especially in the US and Japan, turned out to be surprisingly
soft. However, this trend is forecast to rebound. With this expected recovery in OECD economies, in
combination with the expectation of ongoing robust momentum in non-OECD economies, a continued
positive growth trajectory is projected in the near term. Despite some downside risks, growth projections
for 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged from the last assessment at 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively.
Within the OECD, economic growth in the US and Japan during 1Q24 fell short of overall expectations.
While some weakness may persist in Japan, the softness observed in the US during 1Q24 could be
attributed to temporary dampening effects. Steady momentum in US private household consumption is
expected to support a stable growth projection. Despite ongoing challenges, the Eurozone's economic
growth in 1Q24 exceeded expectations, with the potential for further improvements driven by real income
growth, an anticipated recovery in tourism as the summer season approaches, and a gradual rebound in
industrial production (IP). In non-OECD economies, India, along with China, reported better-than-expected
economic growth in 1Q24. Additionally, growth figures for Russia and Brazil have turned out to be strong,
surpassing general expectations. The dynamic in the four major emerging economies is forecast to continue
in 2024.
Despite certain downside risks, the momentum observed in non-OECD economies since the beginning of
the year, coupled by a rebound in OECD economies, could create additional upside potential for global
economic growth in 2024 and beyond. Furthermore, a shift towards more accommodative monetary policies
by major central banks is expected in 2H24 and throughout 2025, particularly in the US, the Eurozone, and
the UK, which may also support global growth in the near term. However, the trajectory of monetary policies
will significantly hinge on inflationary developments and a likely shift in focus by central banks, particularly
in advanced economies, towards supporting economic growth.
Table 3 - 1: Economic growth rate and revision, 2024–2025*, %

World OECD US Eurozone UK Japan China India Brazil Russia
2024 2.8 1.3 2.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 4.8 6.6 1.8 2.9
Change from previous month 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6
2025 2.9 1.5 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.9 4.6 6.3 1.9 1.4
Change from previous month 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Note: * 2024-2025 = Forecast. The GDP numbers have been adjusted to reflect 2017 ppp.
Source: OPEC.
Update on the latest global developments

Some notable trends have emerged since the beginning of the year. Non-OECD economies have significantly
outperformed expectations, as evidenced by robust economic growth numbers in all BRIC economies over
1Q24. On an annual comparison, 1Q24 economic growth in China stood at 5.3%, India reached 7.8%, Russia
reported 5.4%, and Brazil demonstrated a robust 2.5% growth. This contrasts with a rather unexpectedly weak
economic growth dynamic in OECD economies during the same period. Economic growth for 1Q24 was
recently revised down in the US to 1.3% on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate (q-o-q SAAR).
In Japan, economic growth declined even further, falling by 2%, q-o-q, SAAR, in the same period. In the
Eurozone, the 1Q24 expansion reached 1.3%, q-o-q, SAAR, which, despite being an upward revision from the
previous estimate by Eurostat, remains relatively low. While the divergence in growth trends seems to have
continued into 2Q24, some rebound from low OECD activity in 1Q24 is anticipated, while a strong non-OECD
dynamic is estimated to have softened somewhat. Overall, the underlying global growth dynamic has remained
steady, supporting the current growth forecast.
Another aspect that has developed since the beginning of the year are volatile shifts in monetary policy
expectations by capital markets. During 1Q24, markets anticipated numerous rate cuts over the course of the
year and the initiation of more accommodative monetary policies, possibly as early as 1H24 and particularly
in the US, the Eurozone and the UK. However, this perception has changed as projections shifted considerably
in 2Q24 amid relatively persistent inflation, indicating tighter monetary policies for a longer period.
However, the perception has shifted once again more recently, given the latest soft spots in economic growth,

World Economy
especially in the US and the Eurozone, coupled with the anticipation of a slowing inflationary trend towards the
end of the year. Despite significant uncertainties remaining about the trajectory of key policy rate setting going
forward, much will depend on the inflationary trend and the likely shift in focus by central banks, particularly in
advanced economies, towards supporting economic growth.
Headline inflation witnessed a significant decline across most major economies over the past 18 months, but
remaining largely stable in recent months, with the exception of Brazil, where a continued decline has been
observed. Core inflation rates, serving as the primary anchor for central banks, have continued to recede,
although they persist at relatively elevated levels, notably in the US, the UK, and to some extent, the Eurozone.
As of the latest available data from April, core inflation stands at 3.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the US; 3%,
y-o-y, in the Eurozone; and 3.8%, y-o-y, in the UK. These levels notably exceed the general inflation target of
2% set by respective central banks. A rebound in house prices in these economies in recent months, alongside
sustained and robust demand in the services sector – contributing to steady wage and salary increases –
reinforcing this trend. In response to these circumstances, central banks have expressed their intention to
maintain stringent monetary policies for the time being. However, wage and salary increases, particularly in
the major OECD economies, have gradually decelerated in recent months, potentially leading inflation to lower
levels. Coupled with the most recent decline in commodity prices, this development could afford central banks
greater flexibility in supporting the economic growth trajectory.
Global trade exhibited a gradual improvement in value terms in March, although it experienced a slight decline
on an annual basis. This uptick in value terms was bolstered by a March rebound in global commodity prices.
Furthermore, the improvement is anticipated to continue into April and May, buoyed by a sustained rebound
in commodity prices.
Trade in value terms in March experienced a decline Graph 3 - 1: Global trade
of 1.1%, y-o-y, following a more pronounced decrease % change y-o-y
of 2.9%, y-o-y, in February and 2.1%, y-o-y, in 5
January. These figures are based on the CPB World
Trade Monitor Index, as provided by the CPB 0
Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. -0.8
-1.1
Trade in volume terms saw a decline in March, down -5
by 0.8%, y-o-y, following a significant rebound in
February, when it grew by 2.1%, y-o-y, following a -10
y-o-y decline of 0.8% in January. The annual trends
Mar 23
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
for both March and February were also influenced by
the base effect from the previous year, characterized
by a strong increase in March and a decline in Global trade volume Global trade value
February. Sources: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis,
and Haver Analytics.
Near-term global expectations

While OECD economies witnessed a soft trend in 1Q24, a rebound is anticipated in 2Q24 and is expected to
continue towards year-end. Concurrently, strong growth momentum in non-OECD economies in 1Q24 is
foreseen to gradually normalize throughout 2Q24 and towards the end of the year. Combining these trends,
the global growth dynamic is forecast to maintain a steady pace in 2024 and 2025. On an annual comparison,
global economic growth stood at 2.9% in 1Q24, slightly lower than anticipated the previous month, attributed
to downward revisions in the US and an unexpected decline in Japan. After experiencing relatively balanced
annual growth of 2.8% on average for the remaining three quarters, economic growth is forecast to slightly
pick up into 2025, supported by ongoing growth expansion in the OECD, except the US, and sustained strong
growth momentum in major non-OECD economies. Average quarterly growth rates for 2025 are projected to
remain relatively consistent at an average of about 2.9%, with a potential increase to 3% towards the end of
the year, aligning with earlier forecasts. Significant support for global economic growth in both 2024 and 2025
is expected from the US, China and India, with steady contributions from Brazil and Russia. The Eurozone and
Japan are anticipated to rebound further, albeit at a much lower rate, contributing less to the global economic
growth level.
Considering the latest inflationary developments, growth dynamics, and comments from central bank
policymakers, key central banks are expected to transition to a more accommodative monetary policy by 2H24.
However, uncertainties persist, particularly regarding the near-term trajectory of core inflation. Elevated interest
rates and their consequences have predominantly persisted in 1H24, with key policy rates anticipated to peak
in that period, especially in the US, the UK and the Eurozone. This is projected to be followed by more
accommodative monetary policies in 2H24, expecting a continued decline in headline inflation throughout 2024

World Economy
and into 2025. Recent retractions in wage and salary rises, particularly in major OECD economies, coupled
with a recent decline in commodity prices, could provide central banks with more room to support the economic
growth dynamic in the very near term.
Taken together, there is a potential upside for economic growth in both 2024 and 2025. This optimism hinges
on the momentum in global economic growth observed in 1Q24 continuing to accelerate, primarily in OECD
economies. Emerging economies such as India, Brazil and Russia may outperform expectations due to
increased domestic demand and trade activities. China's growth could also receive a boost from ongoing
government-led measures aimed at stimulating economic activity. Additionally, global trade is expected to
provide further support for growth in both 2024 and 2025. The World Trade Organization (WTO) suggests that
trade will expand by 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, rebounding from a decline of 1.2% in 2023. This projected
recovery in global trade indicates a positive outlook for economic growth, as increased international trade
typically correlates with higher economic activity and investment.
From a sectoral perspective, industrial output in advanced economies has remained weak in 2024 so far, with
improvements in the industrial sector primarily observed in non-OECD economies. The dynamic is projected
to gradually pick up in OECD economies following subdued levels seen earlier in the year. Globally, the
services sector is maintaining steady momentum and is projected to be the major contributor to economic
growth in both 2024 and 2025, with travel and tourism expected to provide steady support, particularly during
the upcoming northern hemisphere summer holiday season.
Global purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for May Graph 3 - 2: Global PMI
indicate a slight improvement in the manufacturing Index
sector, largely driven by a rebound of momentum in 56
advanced economies. Additionally, there is a notable 54.1
54 53.7
increase in the global PMI for the services sector,
suggesting an ongoing healthy state in this segment 52
of the global economy. 50.9
50
In May, the global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9, 48
up from 50.3 in April and 50.6 in March, reflecting a
positive trend. 46
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Similarly, the global services sector PMI saw a
significant increase of 1.4 index points to reach 54.1
in May, compared with 52.7 in April and 52.4 in Composite Manufacturing Services
March. Sources: JP Morgan, S&P Global and Haver Analytics.
Global economic growth in 1Q24 exceeded Table 3 - 2: World economic growth rate and
expectations in several economies but fell short of revision, 2024–2025*, %
expectations in some major OECD countries. World
Considering persistent challenges, the global
2024 2.8
economic growth forecast for 2024 remains Change from previous month 0.0
unchanged at 2.8%. 2025 2.9
Looking ahead to 2025, the economic growth Change from previous month 0.0
forecast remains steady at 2.9%, in line with the Note: * 2024-2025 = Forecast.
estimate from the previous month. Source: OPEC.
OECD
OECD Americas
US
Update on the latest developments
US economic growth in 1Q24 was recently revised down to 1.3%, q-o-q, SAAR, by the Bureau of Economic
Analysis (BEA). This is lower than the BEA's previous estimate of 1.6%. Despite some factors being temporary,
such as a decline in net exports and inventory drawdowns, which are expected to rebound in 2Q24 and beyond,
the growth level was softer than expected by general market expectations, which were around 2% or higher

World Economy
before the initial publication of the 1Q24 growth number. Inventory drawdowns had a negative impact of
0.5 percentage points (pp), while net foreign trade had a negative impact of 0.9 pp on 1Q24 economic growth.
On a relatively positive note, private household consumption remained relatively resilient, growing by 2%,
q-o-q, SAAR. However, this is below the BEA’s initial estimate, which was at a more significant 2.5%, q-o-q,
SAAR. The Atlanta Fed's estimate for 2Q24 economic growth was also revised down in early June to 1.8%,
q-o-q, SAAR, compared with a growth estimate of 3% the previous month. These recent signals suggest a
softening in the US economy, indicating a potential slowdown in economic growth this year compared with
2023. While business and consumer confidence indicators have rebounded in the past month, they have
weakened in comparison to the beginning of the year. IP remains relatively weak, and given ongoing support
from the services sector, inflation persists. However, the overall softening economic growth dynamic could
prompt the Federal Reserve (the Fed) to consider a more accommodative monetary policy in the near term,
as has already been envisaged in the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections in March.
IP declined in April, as reported by the Federal Reserve Board on a seasonally adjusted basis, falling by 0.5%,
y-o-y. This decline follows marginal growth observed in March and February. However, manufacturing orders
showed relatively stronger growth, increasing by 1.3%, y-o-y, in April and 1.5%, y-o-y, in March, also on a
seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Bureau of the Census. Meanwhile, the consumer confidence index,
reported by the Conference Board, rebounded in May, reaching an index level of 102, after a significant drop
was seen in April, when it was recorded at 97.5, following 103.1 in March.
Headline inflation was relatively stagnant, standing at 3.4% y-o-y in April, following a growth level of 3.5%,
y-o-y, in March and up from 3.2% in February. Core inflation showed a slight retraction to a level of 3.6%,
y-o-y, down from 3.8%, y-o-y, in March and February, after reaching 3.9% in January and December. The
Fed's preferred inflation indicator, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), remained stagnant in April
at 2.8% y-o-y, maintaining the same level for three consecutive months, down from 2.9% in January and
December. Housing continues to be a key contributor to maintaining elevated inflation growth, rising by 5.5%,
y-o-y, in April, compared with 5.7%, y-o-y, in March, accounting for almost two-thirds to headline inflation. This
contrasts with pre-pandemic price increases in shelter, which were slightly above 3%.
The labour market showed a very slightly weakening Graph 3 - 3: US monthly labour market
development in May. The unemployment rate edged % %
up marginally to stand at 4%, compared with 3.9% in 63.0 4.2
April and 3.8% in March. 4.0 4.0
62.8
The participation rate retracted to stand at 62.5% in 3.8
May, after 62.7% in April and in March. 62.6
3.6
Earnings growth was steady in May. Y-o-y hourly 62.4 62.5 3.4
earnings growth increased by 4.1% in May, compared 62.2 3.2
with 4% in April and 4.1% in March. While the
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
somewhat weakening labour market trend may be

welcomed by FOMC policy makers, the stable
earnings dynamic might contribute to keeping inflation Participation rate (LHS)
stable. Unemployment rate (RHS)
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Haver Analytics.
Near-term expectations
The soft economic dynamic observed in 1Q24 was somewhat anticipated in the Secretariat's economic growth
forecast. On a quarterly basis, modest growth of 1.3%, q-o-q, seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in 1Q24,
as reported by the BEA, is projected to be followed by 1.9%, q-o-q, SAAR in 2Q24. Annualized growth rates
are then expected to continue decelerating in 2H24, with the economic growth forecast to be 0.8%, q-o-q,
SAAR in both 3Q24 and 4Q24. This growth trend is supported by indicators over the most recent months
suggesting a slight weakening in the labor market, declining hourly earnings, and the potential for a continued
easing in inflation, alongside recent softness in the manufacturing purchasing managers' indices and consumer
confidence.
Despite the Fed’s emphasis on a data-driven approach to monetary policy, recent indicators suggest a possible
move towards a more accommodative position in 2H24. However, the extent and intensity of any easing
measures by the Fed remain uncertain, heavily influenced by the anticipated inflation path, US economic
growth and labour market dynamics. FOMC March projections indicate a reduction of approximately 75 basis
points in the key policy rate by the end of 2024. Nevertheless, the exact magnitude of potential rate cuts is still
under discussion, with Fed officials recently expressing a cautious stance. Furthermore, significant fiscal
stimulus is not anticipated for 2024 or 2025, but the results of the 4Q24 elections could potentially reshape
World Economy
US fiscal policies, influencing monetary policies in 2025, and subsequently affecting growth dynamics into the
following year.
Looking forward, the high debt level, especially sovereign debt, remains a concern. The debt ceiling debate
has been postponed until after the election, with the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 suspending the debt limit
until January 2025. Moreover, the US bank delinquency rate for all consumer loans rose to 2.7% in 1Q24 from
2.6% in 4Q23. Although this rate remains lower than the 3% to 4% range observed before the 2009
Great Recession, it has been steadily increasing since mid-2021, when it was around 1.5%.
May's PMI levels, as reported by the Institute for Graph 3 - 4: US-ISM manufacturing and
Supply Management (ISM), showed a continued non-manufacturing indices
contraction in the manufacturing sector but slightly Index
improving trend in the services sector. 56
54 53.8
The manufacturing PMI dropped below the growth
52
threshold to 49.2 in April, down from 50.3 in March. 50
The contraction persisted in May, with the sector's 48 48.7
index retracting further to stand at 48.7. 46
On the other hand, the index level for the services 44
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
sector, which constitutes about 70% of the US
economy, notably recovered from 49.4 in April
(indicating a contraction) to a level of 53.8 in May.
ISM manufacturing index
ISM non-manufacturing index
Sources: Institute for Supply Management and
Haver Analytics.
The economic growth forecast for 2024 remains Table 3 - 3: US economic growth rate and revision,
unchanged at 2.2%, considering steady private 2024–2025*, %
household consumption in 1Q24 and the US
understanding that the negative impact of external 2024 2.2
trade and inventory changes is likely transitory. This Change from previous month 0.0
forecast aligns with the robust economic growth trend 2025 1.9
anticipated in the previous month's forecast. Change from previous month 0.0
However, there is a projected gradual moderation in
Note: * 2024-2025 = Forecast.
headline GDP growth during 2H24.
Source: OPEC.
Similarly, the growth forecast for 2025 remains
unchanged at 1.9%.
OECD Europe
Eurozone
Although the Eurozone encountered only modest growth in 1Q24, it surpassed expectations and was recently
revised upward. GDP growth for 1Q24 stood at 1.3%, q-o-q, SAAR, compared with the initial estimate of 1.2%
by Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office. This contrasts with a GDP decline of 0.2%, q-o-q, SAAR in both 4Q23
and 3Q23. Additionally, recent business and consumer confidence indicators show ongoing improvements in
2Q24, while IP saw a slight rebound in March, according to the latest available data for the entire Eurozone.
The Eurozone's IP index expanded by 1%, m-o-m, in February, followed by a 0.6%, m-o-m, increase in March
on a seasonally adjusted basis, suggesting potential for gradual improvement. However, on a yearly
comparison, the trend remains negative, with the March figure at -0.7%, y-o-y, compared with -7% in February.
The services sector continues to show a relatively positive growth trajectory, providing significant support to
the Eurozone’s economy. A notable source of strength within the services sector is expected to be tourism,
travel and leisure spending, with signs of ongoing momentum as the summer holiday season approaches.
According to the European Travel Commission, 75% of Europeans plan to travel between May and October
2024, with interest in leisure travel increasing by 5% compared with last year. Additional data from February
and January indicate that Europe's tourism industry is on a steady recovery path, with the number of
international arrivals growing by 7.2% above pre-pandemic levels and overnight stays increasing by 6.5%
compared with 2019's pre-pandemic figures. Moreover, Europe will host two major international sporting

World Economy
events – the Olympic Games in France and the UEFA European Football Championship in Germany – both
expected to boost travel and tourism demand in Europe.
Headline inflation experienced a noticeable decline in recent months, partly attributed to lower energy prices,
although it saw a slight increase in May, when it rose to 2.6%, y-o-y, compared with 2.4%, y-o-y, in April. Core
inflation for the month stood at 2.9%, y-o-y, following 2.8%, y-o-y, in April. While still surpassing the European
Central Bank's (ECB’s) 2% target, the inflationary trajectory is anticipated to potentially soften further. This
expectation is influenced by a recent slowdown in wages and salary growth, alongside some declines in global
commodity prices.
The labour market has remained relatively tight, with Graph 3 - 5: Eurozone retail sales
the unemployment rate continuing its downward % change y-o-y
trend. According to the latest data from Eurostat, the 6
unemployment rate in April remained at 6.4%,
following five consecutive months of stability at 6.5%
up to March. 4
Retail sales have shown modest growth in value

terms. April saw a 1.5%, y-o-y, increase in retail sales 2
spending, compared with 2.3%, y-o-y, in March and a
1.5
1.5%, y-o-y, rise in February. These trends indicate a
0
gradual improvement in the Eurozone’s economy,
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
supported by a stable labour market and expanding
consumer spending, thereby enhancing economic
resilience in the region. Sources: Statistical Office of the European Communities
and Haver Analytics.
Following the decline observed in 2H23, the economic growth rebound witnessed in 1Q24 is expected to
persist for the remainder of the year. This projection is led by the base effect, stemming from low growth the
previous year and improving economic indicators. The gradual recovery in the industrial sector, alongside
ongoing expansion in the services sector, is anticipated to support growth, particularly in the second and third
quarters of 2024. Real income has already seen a rise, with further improvements expected in the second half
of the year. While the full extent of this momentum is yet to be determined, early indicators from the beginning
of the year suggest potential support from the travel and tourism sector this summer, along with a gradual
rebound in IP. The extent of improvement in IP towards the end of the year remains uncertain, but the German
economy is expected to play a significant role. Accelerated improvements in the industrial sector could lead to
additional upside potential compared with current expectations. However, the economic growth rebound in
2024 is anticipated to be gradual and slow.
After the ECB’s decision to lower the key policy rate by 25 basis points at its latest meeting in June, a
continuation of the current accommodative monetary policy is projected for 2H24. This is expected to further
support a rebound in economic growth throughout 2024 and lead to continued growth support towards the end
of the year. Although headline inflation retracted significantly in recent months, it remained persistent in May,
and the ECB's future monetary easing in 2H24 is still uncertain. This decision will be data dependent, but given
the potential for further inflation retraction in 2H24, amid a gradual slowdown in wages and salary growth,
combined with recent declines in global commodity prices, there is a likelihood that the ECB will continue
monetary easing towards the end of the year and into 2025. The forecast for headline inflation in 2024 remains
around 2.5%, and an estimated 2% in 2025, consistent with previous projections and considering the 2.6%
observed in 1Q24.
Expected annualized quarterly growth for 2024 is projected to remain relatively stable, with an average
increase of over 1% in 1H24, followed by a 0.2% rise in 2H24. The forecast anticipates a gradual improvement
in the industrial sector throughout 2024, driven by both domestic and external demand, particularly towards
the end of the year. The resurgence of tourism and service-related spending, coupled with a recovery in
German IP, is expected to significantly support overall growth in 2024, with a potentially greater impact in 2025.
Additionally, a gradual increase in real income is likely to boost consumer spending in 2H24. Combined with
the possibility of ongoing accommodative monetary policy by the ECB, these factors are expected to contribute
to economic acceleration in 2025. Growth for 2025 is forecast to more than double compare with the modest
levels seen in 2023 and 2024, indicating a positive outlook for the upcoming year.

World Economy
The Eurozone’s May’s PMIs reflected a mixed Graph 3 - 6: Eurozone PMIs

performance, with signs of improvement in the Index
services sector, but ongoing challenges persisting in 60
manufacturing.
55 53.2
The PMI for services, which represents the largest 52.2
sector in the Eurozone, remained relatively stable in 50
May, registering 53.2, slightly below April's figure of 47.3
53.3. However, this marks an improvement from the 45
levels seen in March (51.5) and February (50.2),
indicating a positive trend for the sector. 40
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
The manufacturing PMI showed improvement in May,
reaching 47.3 compared with 45.7 in April and 46.1 in
March. Despite this improvement, the manufacturing Composite Manufacturing Services
sector remains in contractionary territory, as indicated Sources: S&P Global and Haver Analytics.
by a reading below 50.
Following a slight GDP decline in 2H23, the economic Table 3 - 4: Eurozone economic growth rate and
outlook is projected to gradually improve in 2024. revision, 2024–2025*, %
Economic growth for the year is forecast to remain at Eurozone
0.5%, consistent with figures from 2023. 2024 0.5
Potential improvements in 2H24 are to carry over into Change from previous month 0.0
2025, with the Eurozone's economic growth forecast 2025 1.2
to gain momentum to reach 1.2%, unchanged from Change from previous month 0.0
the previous month. Note: * 2024-2025 = Forecast.
Source: OPEC.
OECD Asia Pacific

Japan
Update on latest developments
After experiencing a decline of 3.6%, q-o-q, SAAR in 3Q23 and stagnant growth in 4Q23, Japan's economic
growth in 1Q24 contracted again at 2%, q-o-q, SAAR. Weak consumption persisted in 1Q24 due to ongoing
negative real income and a decline in IP, heavily influenced by challenges in the automobile sector.
Additionally, inflation remained relatively persistent, and while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) ended its negative
interest rate policy in March, it left the policy rate unchanged at its latest meeting in April. On a positive note,
recent business and consumer confidence indices, including PMIs and the BoJ’s Tankan survey, suggest a
potential uptick in economic activity. However, these positive signals have not yet translated into economic
growth. The weaker yen has been a significant boost to Japan's tourism industry, with hotel stays in the 2023
calendar year reaching pre-pandemic levels, according to government data.
Retail sales growth in Japan continued to expand in April, picking up by 2.4%, y-o-y, compared with 1.1%,
y-o-y, in March, after rising by 4.7%, y-o-y, in February and 2.1% in January. These figures are based on non-
seasonally adjusted value terms. Inflation retracted slightly in April, with headline inflation standing at 2.5%,
y-o-y, down from 2.7% in March and 2.8% in February. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy and is
a key metric for central bank policies, decreased to 2%, y-o-y, in April, after reaching 2.2%, y-o-y, in March
and 2.5% in February. While the BoJ's latest quarterly outlook report indicates confidence in achieving its 2%
inflation target in the coming years, the current relatively normalized level may prompt a more confident view
of this forecast, potentially leading to ongoing accommodative monetary policy going forward.

World Economy
IP continued its significant decline, falling by 3.4%, Graph 3 - 7: Japan’s exports

y-o-y, in April, following a decrease of 3.1%, y-o-y, in % change y-o-y
March and a contraction of 6.8%, y-o-y, in February. 14
12
On the export front, goods exports maintained their 10 8.3
recovery trajectory. They increased by 8.3%, y-o-y, in 8
April, building on a rise of 7.3%, y-o-y, in March and 6
following an increase of 7.8%, y-o-y, in February. 4
2
Meanwhile, consumer confidence remained robust 0
but softened slightly, reaching 36.2 in May, down from -2
37.8 in April and compared with 39.1 in March.
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Despite the recent decline, the overall trend still
indicates a relatively strengthening momentum
observed since the end of last year. Sources: Ministry of Finance, Japan Tariff Association and
Haver Analytics.
After the unexpectedly large decline in economic growth of 2%, q-o-q, SAAR in 1Q24, the Japanese economy
is poised for a gradual rebound in 2Q24. Signs of a recovery are already emerging, reflected in leading
indicators such as the Tankan survey and recent PMIs. Furthermore, the tourism sector is expected to sustain
its growth, buoyed by the low yen and pent-up demand for global tourism and travel. However, while a recovery
from the 1Q24 downturn is anticipated, annual growth in 2024 is projected to be lower than previously forecast.
Quarterly, average annualized growth rates are forecast to be around 0.5% in 1H24, significantly lower than
the 1.2% projected last month. A modest uptick in activity in 2H24 is expected, aligning with global growth
projections. The forecast for 2H24 suggests quarterly average growth rates of slightly more than 2% on a
seasonally adjusted annualized basis. IP and exports are anticipated to gradually strengthen in 2024. With
momentum expected to improve primarily in 2H24, this positive trend is projected to continue in 2025, although
growth remains subdued.
Following the BoJ’s decision in April to shift the key policy rate into positive territory and considering recent
stagnant inflationary developments, it is anticipated that the bank will adopt a less accommodative monetary
policy stance in 2024 and 2025. There is a possibility that the BoJ may reduce its bond buying programme in
the upcoming June meeting. The current strategy on Yield Curve Control (YCC) policies maintains monthly
purchases of approximately ¥6 trillion worth of Japanese government bonds. Additionally, there is at least
some possibility of a further rate increase. However, the latter decision may seem uncertain, given the recent
weakness in the Japanese economy, coupled with the retraction of inflation in April. Furthermore, the
weakness of the yen plays a vital role in decision-making. The yen traded at around ¥156 per US dollar at the
beginning of June, after sliding to around ¥160 per US dollar in late April, marking its weakest level since 1990.
May PMI numbers reveal continued strength in the Graph 3 - 8: Japan’s PMIs
services sector and signs of ongoing improvement in Index
the manufacturing sector, with the latter moving back 58
into expansionary territory. 56
The services sector PMI, representing a significant 54 53.8
portion of the Japanese economy, remained 52 52.6
comfortably above the 50-point threshold, indicating 50 50.4
sustained growth. Specifically, the services sector
PMI slightly retreated to 53.8 in May, following 48
readings of 54.3 in April and 54.1 in March. 46
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
In parallel, the manufacturing PMI returned to

expansionary territory, surpassing the threshold of 50.
It climbed to 50.4 from 49.6 in April and 48.2 in March, Composite Manufacturing Services
indicating positive momentum in the manufacturing Sources: S&P Global and Haver Analytics.
sector.

World Economy
Following an unexpected sharp decline in 1Q24, Table 3 - 5: Japan’s economic growth rate and
growth projections for 2024 were revised downward, revision, 2024–2025*, %
resulting in a notable adjustment to the 2024 Japan
economic growth forecast to 0.3%, compared with the 2024 0.3
previous estimate of 0.8%. However, there are Change from previous month -0.5
expectations for a rebound in economic activity 2025 0.9
starting from 2Q24 and extending beyond. Change from previous month -0.1
Source: OPEC.
Looking ahead, momentum is anticipated to improve, particularly in 2H24, and this positive trend is expected
to carry over into 2025. While the BoJ is forecast to gradually tighten its monetary policies in the coming year,
economic growth in 2025 is projected to experience a slight increase. However, given the subdued growth
dynamics of 2024, which will also affect 2025, there has been a slight downward revision in the economic
growth forecast for next year. It is now anticipated to reach 0.9%, compared with the previous month's forecast
of 1%.
Non-OECD
China
In mid-May, the Chinese government announced direct measures to address the declining property sector for
the first time. Housing prices fell by 7.5%, y-o-y, in April, following declines of 6.5% in March and 5.6% in
February. This accelerating decline prompted government intervention. The support package includes two key
measures. First, local governments will purchase unsold apartments, facilitated by up to $42 billion in central
government lending, and convert them into social housing. Second, mortgage requirements will be eased by
lowering minimum down payments for first- and second-time homebuyers. The minimum down payment for
first-time buyers is reduced from 20% to 15%, and for second-time buyers from 30% to 25%. The government
also eliminated minimum mortgage interest rates. The support package had an immediate positive impact on
the CSI 300 Real Estate Index. However, the scale of unsold inventory exceeds the capacity of the support
package.
Following the government plan announced in March at the National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting, the
manufacturing sector has been gaining momentum. After starting the year with 7%, y-o-y, growth in January
and February, IP growth slowed to 4.5% in March. In April, IP growth rebounded to 6.7%, y-o-y. Central
government support for manufacturing and IP includes technical support for manufacturing firms, assistance
with global brand development, and the implementation of stricter quality standards.
At the same time, domestic demand continues to slow. Retail sales, an early indicator of private consumption,
decelerated to 2.3%, y-o-y, growth in April after reaching 3.1% in March and 5.5% in February. Although
unemployment was relatively low at 5% in April, continuing a slow downward trend from February, the decline
in the property sector — where much of the Chinese middle class's personal wealth is tied up — has led to a
reduction in spending, as the sector continues to weaken.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained positive at Graph 3 - 9: China’s economic growth
0.3%, y-o-y, in April, following a slight increase from % change y-o-y
0.1% in March and 0.7% in February, marking a 8
recovery from deflation in February. Core inflation was
slightly higher at 0.7% in April, up from 0.6% in March Avg. 23
Avg. 24
but below the February figure of 1.2%. 6 5.2 4.8
Unemployment continues to decline, with the latest
figure at 5.0% in April, down from 5.2% in March and 4
5.3% in February. Urban youth unemployment also
saw a slight decrease. 2
4.5 6.3 4.9 5.2 5.3

0
1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics and Haver Analytics.

World Economy
The government support package for the property sector is expected to have a broader economic impact
beyond directly addressing housing prices. As a significant portion of Chinese middle-class wealth is tied to
property, increased confidence in the sector could boost consumer confidence and demand. However, given
the substantial number of unsold apartments, excluding sold-but-unbuilt properties, the support package
appears relatively small. Nonetheless, it signals the government's willingness to take direct action to address
the sector's issues. The government will likely continue to oversee the property sector's correction, providing
support as needed to avoid broader economic spillovers.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintained the five-year loan rate, the policy rate most associated with
mortgages, at 3.95% for the fourth consecutive month. The last rate drop occurred in February, by 25 basis
points.
Support for the manufacturing sector is expected to boost IP. However, with manufacturing outpacing domestic
demand, exports are expected to grow, potentially escalating trade tensions with major partners. The US has
imposed tariffs on several Chinese exports, including increasing tariffs on electric vehicles (EVs) from 25% to
100%. This move is largely symbolic, as China accounts for less than 2% of US EV imports. In the short term,
Chinese exports are expected to continue growing, despite escalating trade tensions.
May PMI data indicate that China’s outlook is Graph 3 - 10: China’s PMI
improving in both the manufacturing and services Index
sectors, as both push further into expansionary 58
territory.
56
The manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in May from 51.4 54.1
54 54.0
in April and 51.1 in March, reflecting the impact of
ongoing government support policies on 52 51.7
manufacturing.
50
The services PMI reversed a slight decline from the
48
previous month, rising to 54.0 in May from 52.5 in April
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
and 52.7 in March.
Composite Manufacturing Services

Sources: Caixin, S&P Global and Haver Analytics.
With the positive impact of the government support Table 3 - 6: China’s economic growth rate and
package for the property sector still uncertain due to revision, 2024–2025*, %
the scale and scope of unsold apartment inventory, China
the growth forecast is largely centred on 2024 4.8
manufacturing and exports. The economic growth Change from previous month 0.0
forecast for China remains unchanged at 4.8% for 2025 4.6
2024. Change from previous month 0.0
The forecast for China's 2025 growth rate remains Note: * 2024-2025 = Forecast.
unchanged at 4.6% from the previous month's report. Source: OPEC.
Other Asia
India
The most recent data from India indicates stronger-than-anticipated growth in 1Q24, with a y-o-y increase of
7.8%, maintaining the robust growth rate of 8.6% observed in 4Q23. Private consumption expenditure
remained steady at 4% in both quarters. Conversely, government consumption expenditure saw positive
growth of 0.9% in 1Q24, reversing negative growth of 3.2% seen in 4Q23.

World Economy
Although manufacturing growth decelerated slightly to Graph 3 - 11: India's industrial production
8.9%, y-o-y, in 1Q24, down from 11.5% in 4Q23, it % change y-o-y
continues to exhibit strength, largely influenced by 15
supportive government policies. Similarly, the
construction sector sustained robust growth of 8.7%
in 1Q24, albeit slightly lower than the 9.6% growth 10
observed in 4Q23. 5.7
Driven predominantly by the services sector, which 5
constitutes over half of the economy, India's
economic landscape saw stable growth. The services 0
sector expanded by 6.7%, y-o-y, in 1Q24, following a
Mar 23
Feb 23
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
growth rate of 7.1% in 4Q23. Furthermore, the
unemployment rate declined to 7.0% in May, marking
a decrease from 8.1% in April and 7.4% in March. Sources: Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation
of India and Haver Analytics.
Inflation saw a slight decrease to 4.8%, y-o-y, in April, Graph 3 - 12: Repo rate and inflation in India
down from 4.9% in March and 5.1% in February. % change y-o-y
However, concerns persist regarding food inflation, 10
particularly notable in the significant rise of vegetable 6.5
prices, which have surged by over 25% since 5 4.8
December 2023. The most recent data reveals 1.3
vegetable inflation at 27.8%, y-o-y, in April, marginally 0
lower than the 28.3% recorded in March and 30.3%
in February. Core inflation for April stood at 3.2%,
y-o-y, a modest decline from 3.3% in March and 3.4% -5
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
in February. In response to these inflationary trends,
the Reserve Bank of India opted to maintain the key
repo rate at 6.5% in May.
Repo rate WPI CPI
Sources: Ministry of Commerce and Industry,
Reserve Bank of India and Haver Analytics.
India’s trade balance in April widened to $19.1 bn, Graph 3 - 13: India’s trade balance
compared with $15.6 bn in March and $14.4 bn in US$ bn
April of the previous year. 60 35.0
34.6
40
Monthly exports decreased to $35.0 bn in April, down 20
from $41.7 bn in March. 0
-20
Similarly, monthly imports also saw a decline, falling -40 -14.4
-19.1
to $54.1 bn in April from $57.3 bn in March. -60
-80 -49.1 -54.1
-100
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Exports Imports Trade balance

Sources: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and
Haver Analytics.
The Indian election yielded gains for the opposition INDIA coalition, although the ruling NDA coalition
maintained its majority. As the incumbent party, the BJP no longer holds an outright majority and will need to
collaborate with smaller political parties to sustain a coalition government. While a continuation of economic
policies is expected, coalition governments inherently introduce additional uncertainty. The government is likely
to persist in supporting manufacturing and industrial output, possibly with a heightened focus on addressing
unemployment and inflation, factors that influenced the election outcome.
Following a period of market turbulence and subsequent recovery, the Indian stock market stabilized post-
election. Industrial activity, bolstered by Production-Linked Incentives (PLI) schemes, is projected to endure.
The services sector is anticipated to sustain growth momentum, buoyed by an expanding middle class and

World Economy
decreasing unemployment. Election-related expenditures likely provided an economic boost this year, with the
prolonged voting period generating significant spending on political campaigns and pre-election initiatives,
particularly in rural regions.
Inflation remains a notable concern in India, especially food inflation. The weak monsoon season in late 2023
primarily drove supply shortages and subsequent price hikes. As the monsoon season commences this month
and extends through September, preliminary forecasts from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)
suggest a stronger-than-average year, although uncertainties persist. Overall, agricultural output is expected
to rebound, potentially leading to a slowdown in food inflation by year-end.
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, although still Graph 3 - 14: India’s PMIs
indicating expansion, recorded a decline for the Index
second consecutive month. May saw the index at 64
57.5, down from 58.8 in April and 59.1 in March. 62 60.5
60 60.2
Similarly, the services PMI also witnessed a slight 58
decrease but remained firmly in expansionary 57.5
56
territory. May's services PMI stood at 60.2, slightly 54
lower than April's 60.8 and March's 61.2. 52
50
48
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Sources: S&P Global and Haver Analytics.
Despite electoral uncertainties, the growth forecast Table 3 - 7: India’s economic growth rate and
for India in 2024 remains stable at 6.6%, consistent revision, 2024–2025*, %
with the previous month's report, with potential for India
further growth. The services sector is expected to 2024 6.6
play a key role in sustaining overall growth Change from previous month 0.0
momentum. 2025 6.3
Looking ahead to 2025, the growth rate is projected Change from previous month 0.0
to slow to 6.3%, consistent with the previous month's Note: * 2024-2025 = Forecast.
forecast, driven by the recovery in agriculture and Source: OPEC.
continued government backing for the manufacturing
sector.
Latin America
Brazil
Update on latest developments
The latest data for 1Q24 shows the Brazilian economy grew by 2.5%, y-o-y, surpassing market expectations.
On the expenditure side, this growth was driven by private consumption, which increased by 4.4% in 1Q24,
up from 2.3% growth, y-o-y, in 4Q23. Government consumption slowed to 2.6% growth in 1Q24 from 3.0% in
4Q23, while gross fixed capital formation grew by 2.7% in 1Q24 after a contraction of 4.4% was seen in 4Q23,
indicating increased government investment in infrastructure and construction.
On a sectoral level, agricultural output contracted slightly in 1Q24 by 3.3% on a seasonally adjusted, y-o-y,
basis, following a high base in 2023 when harvests reached record levels. In 1Q23, the agricultural sector grew
by 23.2%, y-o-y. Despite the contraction, the agricultural sector remained relatively robust in 1Q24. The
industrial sector grew by 2.6%, y-o-y, in 1Q24, a decline from the 4Q23 rate of 6.9%. Within the industrial
sector, manufacturing contracted by 1.0%, y-o-y, in 1Q24, while construction expanded by 13.8% during the
same period, both on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Monthly data indicate an acceleration of IP and manufacturing into 2Q24. IP grew by 8.4% in April after
contracting slightly by 2.8% in March. Meanwhile, manufacturing expanded by 10.3% in April after a contraction
was seen of 3.6% in March. Government policies supporting manufacturing and industry, along with large
infrastructure projects and construction, are reflected in these numbers.

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The services sector, comprising roughly 60% of the overall Brazilian economy, showed steady growth at 3.0%
in 1Q24, accelerating from 2.0% in 4Q23 and 1.7% in 3Q23. Low and stable unemployment, combined with
declining interest rates and lower inflation, led to an increase in real wages, which helped drive the services
sector's growth trend.
Inflation continues to decline in Brazil, with April's Graph 3 - 15: Brazil’s inflation vs. interest rate
headline inflation at 3.7%, y-o-y, down from 3.9% in % change y-o-y % per annum
March and 4.5% in February. The Banco Central do 10 16
Brasil’s (BCB) inflation target rate for 2024 is 3%,
although current levels are within the upper limit of 14
4.5%. Given this inflationary trend, the key SELIC 5 10.50 12
interest rate was cut by 25 basis points in May,
3.7 10
bringing it to 10.5%. This is the third cut in 2024,
following reductions of 50 basis points in both 0 8
February and March by the BCB.
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
National consumer price index (LHS)
Selic rate (RHS)
Sources: Banco Central do Brasil, Instituto Brasileiro de
Geografia e Estatística and Haver Analytics.
The growth trend exhibited in 1Q24 is anticipated to persist throughout the remainder of 2024 and into 2025.
Rising real incomes are expected to sustain consumer spending, contributing to continued growth in the
services sector. Government policy support for manufacturing and infrastructure spending, particularly in
minerals extraction, including drilling activity and supporting infrastructure, is anticipated to maintain growth in
the industrial sector. Meanwhile, the agricultural sector is projected to decline, largely due to the exceptionally
high harvest in 2023, although absolute output quantities are expected to remain high compared with the
average of prior years. Robust agricultural output in 2023 had positive spillover effects on supporting services,
such as transportation, logistics and financial services, which are unlikely to recur in 2024. Overall, growth in
the industrial and services sectors is expected to more than offset the slowdown in agriculture.
On the monetary policy front, interest rates are expected to be further reduced, as they currently remain
relatively high at 10.5%, while inflation approaches the 3% target. Further cuts could accelerate the growth
trend in consumer spending on both goods and services.
The tax reform policies adopted in late 2023 are still in the early stages of implementation and are not likely to
show a significant impact in 2024. In 2025, a boost in investment is anticipated as a result of both the
approaching implementation of the streamlined tax system and continued government spending on
infrastructure. Consequently, the Brazilian economy is expected to accelerate in 2025.
In May, PMI data in services and manufacturing reversed the trend from one month ago, with the services PMI
rising and the manufacturing PMI dropping, though both remained in expansionary territory. The manufacturing
PMI fell to 52.1 in May from 55.9 in April and 53.6 in March. The services PMI rose to 55.3 in May, up from
53.7 in April and 54.8 in March.
In May, PMI data for both services and manufacturing Graph 3 - 16: Brazil’s PMIs
reversed the trend from the previous month, with the Index
services PMI rising and the manufacturing PMI 58
dropping, though both indicators remained in 56 55.3
expansionary territory. 54 54.0
The manufacturing PMI fell to 52.1 in May from 55.9 52 52.1
in April and 53.6 in March. 50
48
On the other hand, the services PMI rose to 55.3 in 46
May, up from 53.7 in April and 54.8 in March. 44
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24

Sources: HSBC, S&P Global and Haver Analytics.

World Economy
The relatively robust economic growth experienced in Table 3 - 8: Brazil’s economic growth rate and
1Q24, coupled with ongoing expansion in the services revision, 2024–2025*, %
sector, has led to an upward adjustment of Brazil’s Brazil
economic growth forecast. With continued increases 2024 1.8
in real wages and positive prospects for Change from previous month 0.2
manufacturing and construction, growth has been 2025 1.9
revised upward to 1.8% from the previous month’s Change from previous month 0.0
forecast of 1.6%.
Source: OPEC.
Looking ahead to 2025, the growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.9%. The anticipated acceleration in the
Brazilian economy will be driven by further monetary policy easing and increased investment, bolstered by the
early benefits of the reformed tax system.
Russia and Central Asia

Russia
The latest data from 1Q24 indicates that economic growth momentum in Russia, which began in late 2023,
continued into this year. Flash economic growth estimates for 1Q24 show a growth rate of 5.4%, y-o-y,
following a 4.9% growth rate in 4Q23, y-o-y. Although sectoral breakdowns for 1Q24 are not yet available, the
trend from 4Q23 suggests continued growth in capital formation, which registered an 18.6% increase, y-o-y,
in 4Q23.
Government spending remains elevated, and households are also contributing to the growth trend through
increased spending, driven by rising wages and low unemployment. Household consumption grew by 7.3%,
y-o-y, in 4Q23. Retail sales data for 1Q24 indicate even stronger household consumption growth, with
increases of 11.9%, y-o-y, in March; 12.6%, y-o-y, in February; and 9.4%, y-o-y, in January. Unemployment
continues to decline, with the rate dropping to 2.7% in March from 2.8% in February and 2.9% in January.
IP grew steadily at 3.9%, y-o-y, in April, following 3.8%, y-o-y, in March, though down from 8.5%, y-o-y, in
February. Manufacturing, the largest contributor to IP growth, rose by 8.4%, y-o-y, in April, accelerating from
6.1%, y-o-y, in March, but down from 13.5%, y-o-y, in February. This ongoing growth is likely supported by
government spending and import substitution. However, manufacturing growth was slightly offset by a 1.9%,
y-o-y, contraction in mining and quarrying activity in April, following slight growth of 0.4%, y-o-y, in March and
1.9%, y-o-y, in February.
Inflation continued to rise in April, reaching 7.8%, y-o- Graph 3 - 17: Russia’s inflation vs. interest rate
y, following 7.7%, y-o-y, in March and February. Core % %
inflation is also rising, reaching 8.3%, y-o-y, in April, 10 18
16.0
up from 7.8% in March and 7.6% in February. 8 16
The Central Bank of Russia maintained the official 7.8 14
6
interest rate at 16% in May for the sixth consecutive 12
4
month, with the last adjustment being a 100 basis 10
point increase in December 2023. Despite the high 2 8
central bank rate, the government has maintained a 0 6
subsidized mortgage rate of 8% for a broad segment
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
of the public sector workforce, slightly mitigating the

impact of high central bank rates on housing. The
primary driver of high inflation remains high import Inflation rate (LHS) Interest rate (RHS)
costs due to external pressures, combined with strong Sources: Federal State Statistics Service, Central Bank of
consumer spending. Russian Federation and Haver Analytics.
The strong momentum witnessed in the Russian economy in 2024, stemming from 2H23, is evident in the flash
economic growth estimate for 1Q24. However, a slight slowdown in IP, driven by a contraction in mining and
quarrying activity, somewhat tempers this trend. The 1Q24 data, akin to figures from 4Q23, is partly bolstered
by the base effect of negative economic growth in corresponding quarters one year earlier.

World Economy
Looking ahead to 2Q24 and 2H24, growth numbers may be influenced by quarters with high economic growth,
potentially resulting in decelerated growth rates compared with 1Q24 and 4Q23.
Manufacturing is expected to remain robust and continue its growth trajectory throughout 2024, buoyed by the
expansion of Russia's industrial base, fueled by reindustrialization and import-substitution programmes.
Concurrently, a rise in manufacturing output from non-Western countries, notably China, could offer Russia
access to essential low-cost imports, potentially mitigating inflationary pressures during this transitional phase.
High levels of consumer spending are expected to persist, with the unemployment rate remaining low and
continuing to decline. The resulting inflationary pressure continues to be a concern for the Russian economy.
The official interest rate policy, currently at 16%, was thought to have the potential to restrain the rise of
inflation, but has not yet proven successful. This is because the inflationary environment in Russia is complex,
primarily driven by structural dependencies on imports, particularly in consumer goods, rather than solely
monetary factors. The volatility of the rouble further exacerbates the issue, contributing to challenges in
managing inflation effectively. Furthermore, the government's policy of providing selected groups of the
population with an 8% subsidized mortgage rate somewhat mitigates the dampening effect of the high policy
rate on demand. Therefore, striking a balance between providing affordable housing and managing inflation
through the preservation of central bank policy effectiveness remains a dynamic challenge. Nonetheless,
addressing the high cost of imports through a combination of boosting domestic production and increasing
imports from non-Western countries, particularly China, could prove effective in curbing inflation.
In May, the services PMI indices experienced a slight Graph 3 - 18: Russia’s PMI
decline, dropping into contractionary territory, while Index
the manufacturing PMI expanded further into 60
expansionary territory. 58
The S&P Global manufacturing PMI increased to 54.4 56
in May, up from 54.3 in April but down from 55.7 in 54 54.4
March.
52 51.4
Conversely, the services PMI decreased to 49.8 in 50
49.8
May from 50.5 in April and 51.4 in March.
48
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Sources: HSBC, S&P Global and Haver Analytics.
With strong 1Q24 flash economic growth estimates Table 3 - 9: Russia’s economic growth rate and
and continued momentum in manufacturing and revision, 2024–2025*, %
consumption, the growth forecast for Russia has been Russia
revised upward to 2.9% for 2024. 2024 2.9
For 2025, the expected slowdown in consumption Change from previous month 0.6
momentum keeps the forecast unchanged at 1.4%. 2025 1.4
Change from previous month 0.0
Source: OPEC.
Africa
South Africa
South Africa’s economic growth decelerated in 1Q24 to 0.5%, y-o-y, from the 4Q23 rate of 1.4%. In 3Q23, the
country’s economy contracted by 0.9%, y-o-y. Private consumption expenditure contracted by 0.4%, y-o-y, in
1Q24, down from a growth rate of 0.6% in 4Q23. While the consumption of goods contracted, services
continued to grow slightly in 1Q24 at 0.5%, y-o-y, down from 1.85% in 4Q23. Government spending continued
to grow but declined to 1.4% in 1Q24, down from 3.2% in 4Q23. Gross fixed capital formation contracted by
2.8% in 1Q24, with construction work contracting 7.8% in the same period, y-o-y.

World Economy
Unemployment remains high, with the 1Q24 official rate at 32.8%, slightly up from the 4Q23 rate of 32.1%.
Inflation declined in April to 5.1%, y-o-y, from the March level of 5.3%, and the February level of 5.6%. Food
inflation also declined to 4.7%, y-o-y, in April, down from 5.0% in March and 6.1% in February. Despite this
decrease, inflation remained above the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) target of 4.5%, but below the
upper limit of 6%. The SARB held the key repo rate at 8.25% in May for the 12th consecutive month.
Persistent power shortages continue to challenge the economy, as Eskom, the state-owned electric utility,
struggles with frequent outages that disrupt large urban centres and daily life. Meanwhile, Transnet, the state-
operated freight rail and port authority, faces ongoing operational difficulties that impede the smooth
transportation of goods. In response to these issues, the government extended financial assistance to Transnet
in late 2023 to help the company meet its debt obligations. These ongoing difficulties were a prominent issue
in elections in late May.
In the South African elections held in late May, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party lost the
majority for the first time since 1994 but held on to 40% of National Assembly seats. A coalition government
will inherently contribute additional uncertainty for the economy. However, on major economic issues, the ANC
and Democratic Alliance (DA), which won 21% of the seats in the National Assembly, are relatively aligned.
With unemployment persistently high, exceeding 30%, consumer spending is expected to remain low or
possibly negative, as seen in 1Q24 data. Positive signals are emerging on power grid issues, with load-
shedding suspended since February due to improvements in power plants. However, Eskom warned that the
issues are not fully resolved. By 2025, major issues related to the power grid and logistics are expected to be
addressed in a more permanent manner. The Absa seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
notably dropped into contractionary territory in May to 43.8 from 54.0 in April and 49.2 in March.
With high levels of uncertainty regarding the direction Table 3 - 10: South Africa’s economic growth rate
of government policy and high levels of and revision, 2024–2025*, %
unemployment persisting, the forecast for South South Africa
Africa for 2024 remains at 0.9%, unchanged from the 2024 0.9
previous month’s report. Change from previous month 0.0
Improvements in the power grid and business activity 2025 1.4
and potentially an improved labour market are Change from previous month 0.0
expected to accelerate growth to 1.4% in 2025, Note: * 2024-2025 = Forecast.
unchanged from the previous month’s forecast. Source: OPEC.
OPEC Member Countries

Saudi Arabia
According to the General Authority for Statistics (GSA) flash GDP estimate for 1Q24, the Saudi economy
showed signs of improvement, experiencing a smaller contraction of 1.8% y-o-y, compared with a 4.3%
contraction in 4Q23. Overall growth in the non-oil sector was resilient, increasing to 3.6% in 1Q24 from 3.5%
in 4Q23. Public sector expenditure has been growing as government spending rose to 6.3% in 1Q24 from
4.5% in 4Q23. Additionally, public gross capital formation surged to 15% in 1Q24 from 6.5% in 4Q23. The
public sector non-oil and gas segment also saw a notable increase, with growth reaching 4.8% in 1Q24, up
from 3.7% in 4Q23. Consumer demand remains positive but slowed in 1Q24. Private consumption expenditure
growth fell to 2.1% in 1Q24 from 4.9% in 4Q23. Despite this, the private non-oil and gas sector improved, with
growth increasing from 3.7% in 4Q23 to 4.8% in 1Q24. Manufacturing growth also showed positive signs, with
non-oil manufacturing achieving 0.7% growth in 1Q24, recovering from a contraction of 4.4% in 4Q23.
PMI figures reflect continued expansion in the non-oil economy, albeit with some deceleration. The index came
in at 56.4 in May, down from 57.0 in April and 57.1 in March. Inflation trends showed a modest decrease, with
April's inflation rate at 1.6% y-o-y, down from 1.7% in March and 1.8% in February. The tourism sector is
expected to maintain its upward trajectory into 2024 and 2025. In 2023, spending by foreign visitors in Saudi
Arabia hit a record high, representing a 42.8% increase from 2022.

World Economy
Nigeria
Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.0% in 1Q24, y-o-y, decelerating from a 4Q23 growth rate of 3.5%. The Stanbic
IBTC PMI increased in May to 52.1 from 51.1 in April and 51.0 in March, marking six consecutive months in
expansionary territory. However, inflation remains high at 33.7% in April y-o-y, up from 33.2% in March and
31.7% in February. Food inflation rose to 40.3% in April y-o-y from 39.8% in March and 37.7% in February.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) increased the key policy rate by 150 basis points in May to 26.25%,
following a hike of 400 basis points in February and an additional hike of 200 basis points in March. The CBN
indicated that interest rates will remain high as long as necessary to reduce inflation. The naira is showing
signs of stabilization with policy interventions after fluctuations against the dollar in 1H24.
Despite inflationary pressure, the services sector, the largest contributor to GDP growth, continued to expand,
with growth of 4.3% in 1Q24, up from 4.0% in 4Q23. Transportation services and information and
communication services both grew at over 5% in 1Q24. The industrial sector also expanded, but at a slower
rate, registering 2.2% growth in 1Q24, down from 3.9% in 4Q23. The launch of the Dangote Oil Refinery is
expected to further improve the trade balance and economic outlook. While inflation remains a concern,
consistent and targeted monetary policy is expected to stabilize prices and the wider economy.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE)

The latest data shows that the UAE continued to demonstrate growth in its non-oil sectors, registering a 6.7%
expansion, y-o-y, in 4Q23, up from 5.8% in 3Q23. Construction growth accelerated to 8.4% in 4Q23 from 8.0%
in 3Q23, while overall growth reached 6.4% from 2.6% during the same period. Key services segments also
experienced growth. Financial and insurance activities grew by 17.6%, y-o-y, in 4Q23, up from 11.8% in 3Q23.
Transportation and storage services grew at 10.3%, y-o-y, in 4Q23, though this was a deceleration from the
14% seen in 3Q23. Accommodation and food services activities growth slowed to 3.9%, y-o-y, in 4Q23, down
from 7.4% in 3Q23. Data from the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism shows that 2023 was a record
year for tourism in the Emirate, with the number of international visitors up 19.4% from 2022, surpassing 2019
levels. Early indicators for 2024 point to another strong year in the tourism sector in Dubai, with the number of
visitors in 1Q24 up by 11%, y-o-y.
Inflation in Dubai increased to 3.9% in April, y-o-y, up from 3.3% in March and 3.4% in February. This increase
was primarily driven by transportation services, which saw a rise in prices of 3.3%, y-o-y, in April, likely
impacted by heavy rains that month. Transportation prices had been in decline in 1Q24. The Central Bank of
the UAE kept its key policy rate steady at 5.4%, unchanged since July 2023. The seasonally adjusted S&P
Global’s PMI for the UAE remained at 55.3 in May, the same level as in April, down from 56.9 in March, but
still within expansionary territory, indicating continued growth. This ongoing growth, particularly in the
manufacturing sector, was supported by a 51% increase in the issuance of new industrial licenses in 2023.

World Economy
The impact of the US dollar (USD) and inflation on oil

prices
The US dollar (USD) index receded slightly in May, Graph 3 - 19: The Modified Geneva I + US$ Basket
falling by 0.5% m-o-m. A decline in US treasury yield (base June 2017 = 100)
benchmarks and softer US macroeconomic indicators Index
weighed on the USD. However, a dovish stance from 340
other major central banks shifted yield spreads in 320
favour of the USD, which partially offset losses. The
300
index was up by 2.1% y-o-y.
280
On developed market (DM) currencies, the USD fell 260
against the euro and pound in May by 0.8%, m-o-m,
240
respectively. At the same time, it rose against the yen
220
for a fifth consecutive month, by 1.7%, m-o-m.
Compared with the same period last year, the USD 200
Mar 23
Mar 24
Sep 22
Nov 22
Sep 23
Nov 23
May 22
May 23
May 24
Jul 22
Jan 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
was up against the euro and the yen by 0.6% and
13.8%, y-o-y, respectively. However, it was down
against the pound by 1.1%, y-o-y, over the same
period. Sources: IMF and OPEC.
In terms of emerging market (EM) currencies, the USD remained essentially flat, m-o-m, against the rupee and
real in May. Meanwhile, it declined marginally against the yuan by 0.1%, m-o-m, over the same period.
Compared with the same time last year, the USD was up against all EM currencies, by 1.3%, 3.4%, and 3.0%,
y-o-y, against the rupee, yuan and real, respectively.
The differential between nominal and real ORB prices Graph 3 - 20: Impact of inflation and
fell to parity in May. Inflation (nominal price minus real currency fluctuations on the spot ORB price
price) went from a discount of $1.07/b in April to (base June 2017 = 100)
$0.00/b in May, a 100% increase m-o-m. US$/b
140
In nominal terms, accounting for inflation, the ORB
120
price went from $9.12/b in April to $83.59/b in May, a $83.59/b
100
6.2% decrease m-o-m. The ORB was up by 10.2%
y-o-y in nominal terms. 80
60 $83.59/b
In real terms (excluding inflation), the ORB went from 40
$90.19/b in April to $83.59/b in May, a 7.3% decrease
20
m-o-m. The ORB was up by 11.9% y-o-y in real terms.
0
Feb 21
Feb 22
Feb 23
Feb 24
Nov 20
Nov 21
Nov 22
Nov 23
Aug 20
Aug 21
Aug 22
Aug 23
May 20
May 21
May 22
May 23
May 24
ORB: Nominal price ORB: Real price
Source: OPEC.

World Oil Demand
World Oil Demand

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 remains broadly unchanged from last month’s estimates at
2.2 mb/d. However, there are some minor adjustments to the 1Q24 and 2Q24 data. Slight downward
adjustments were made to OECD Europe, OECD Asia Pacific and Latin America due to lower-than-
expected oil demand in 1Q24. Minor downward adjustments were also made to Africa in 2Q24 to account
for the anticipated slow momentum in oil requirements in the region. These downward revisions were
completely offset by upward revisions to a number of non-OECD countries due to better-than-expected oil
demand reported for 1Q24 and improvements expected in 2Q24.
Accordingly, the OECD is projected to expand by more than 0.2 mb/d in 2024, with OECD Americas leading
oil demand growth, along with an uptick from OECD Europe. In the non-OECD, oil demand is forecast to
expand by nearly 2.0 mb/d, y-o-y, driven by China and supported by Other Asia, the Middle East, India,
and Latin America.
Total world oil demand is anticipated to reach 104.5 mb/d in 2024, bolstered by strong demand for air travel
and healthy road mobility, including trucking. Support is also expected from industrial, construction and
agricultural activities in non-OECD countries. Similarly, petrochemical capacity additions in non-OECD
countries, mostly in China and the Middle East, are expected to contribute to oil demand growth. However,
this forecast is subject to some uncertainty, which includes global economic developments for the rest of
the year.
In 2025, global oil demand is forecast to continue to show robust growth of 1.8 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged
from the previous month’s assessment. The OECD is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while demand
in the non-OECD is forecast to expand by 1.7 mb/d.
Table 4 - 1: World oil demand in 2024*, mb/d

Change 2024/23
World oil demand 2023 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2024 Growth %
Americas 25.03 24.57 25.38 25.58 25.44 25.25 0.22 0.88
of which US 20.36 19.98 20.67 20.67 20.85 20.54 0.18 0.90
Europe 13.40 13.07 13.56 13.69 13.35 13.42 0.02 0.13
Asia Pacific 7.32 7.76 6.97 7.09 7.48 7.32 0.00 0.02
Total OECD 45.75 45.41 45.92 46.36 46.27 45.99 0.24 0.52
China 16.26 16.52 16.83 17.23 17.33 16.98 0.72 4.44
India 5.34 5.66 5.66 5.40 5.59 5.58 0.23 4.36
Other Asia 9.28 9.73 9.77 9.49 9.51 9.62 0.35 3.74
Latin America 6.69 6.75 6.88 6.97 6.88 6.87 0.18 2.69
Middle East 8.63 8.76 8.56 9.23 9.00 8.89 0.26 2.96
Africa 4.46 4.64 4.35 4.39 4.82 4.55 0.09 2.08
Russia 3.84 3.92 3.80 3.99 4.08 3.95 0.11 2.80
Other Eurasia 1.17 1.30 1.24 1.08 1.28 1.23 0.05 4.51
Other Europe 0.78 0.82 0.78 0.77 0.84 0.80 0.02 2.07
Total Non-OECD 56.46 58.10 57.88 58.54 59.34 58.47 2.01 3.55
Total World 102.21 103.51 103.80 104.90 105.60 104.46 2.25 2.20
Previous Estimate 102.21 103.56 103.75 104.90 105.61 104.46 2.25 2.20
Revision 0.00 -0.05 0.05 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Note: * 2024 = Forecast. Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.
Source: OPEC.

World Oil Demand
Table 4 - 2: World oil demand in 2025*, mb/d

Change 2025/24
World oil demand 2024 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025 Growth %
Americas 25.25 24.64 25.43 25.70 25.52 25.33 0.08 0.31
of which US 20.54 20.02 20.70 20.73 20.89 20.59 0.04 0.21
Europe 13.42 13.09 13.57 13.71 13.36 13.44 0.02 0.12
Asia Pacific 7.32 7.77 6.98 7.10 7.49 7.33 0.01 0.14
Total OECD 45.99 45.50 45.99 46.51 46.37 46.10 0.11 0.23
China 16.98 16.95 17.21 17.67 17.72 17.39 0.41 2.42
India 5.58 5.88 5.90 5.61 5.82 5.80 0.23 4.09
Other Asia 9.62 10.02 10.10 9.82 9.81 9.93 0.31 3.23
Latin America 6.87 6.95 7.07 7.19 7.07 7.07 0.20 2.91
Middle East 8.89 9.14 8.90 9.69 9.35 9.27 0.38 4.30
Africa 4.55 4.76 4.45 4.52 4.93 4.66 0.11 2.48
Russia 3.95 3.98 3.85 4.05 4.12 4.00 0.05 1.36
Other Eurasia 1.23 1.34 1.27 1.12 1.31 1.26 0.03 2.57
Other Europe 0.80 0.83 0.79 0.78 0.85 0.81 0.01 1.40
Total Non-OECD 58.47 59.84 59.55 60.45 60.99 60.21 1.74 2.98
Total World 104.46 105.33 105.53 106.96 107.36 106.31 1.85 1.77
Previous Estimate 104.46 105.38 105.48 106.96 107.37 106.31 1.85 1.77
Revision 0.00 -0.05 0.05 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Source: OPEC.
OECD
OECD Americas
Oil demand in OECD Americas in March contracted by 274 tb/d, y-o-y, down from growth of 244 tb/d, y-o-y, in
the previous month. Most of the decline was recorded in the US and can largely be attributed to weak diesel
and gasoline requirements.
Graph 4 - 1: OECD Americas’ oil demand by main Graph 4 - 2: OECD Americas’ oil demand, y-o-y
petroleum product category, y-o-y change change
mb/d mb/d
1.5 2.5
1.0
0.5 2.0
0.0
-0.5 1.5
-1.0
-1.5 1.0
Mar 23
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
0.5
0.0
LPG Naphtha
Gasoline Jet/kerosene -0.5
Gas diesel oil Diesel 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year
Other gasoil Residual fuel oil 2022 2023 2024* 2025*
Other products Total oil
Sources: IEA, JODI, OPEC and national sources. Source: OPEC.
US
Oil demand in the US declined by 206 tb/d, y-o-y, in March, down from growth of 190 tb/d, y-o-y, the previous
month. The largest contraction was recorded in diesel, which decreased by 429 tb/d, y-o-y, from a decline of
99 tb/d, y-o-y the previous month. This outpaced the growth recorded in LPG and residual fuels. Diesel demand
was subdued by reduced requirements for heating oil in the northern parts of the US due to a milder winter. In
addition, lacklustre trucking activity during the month weighed on demand for diesel.

World Oil Demand
According to a report from the American Trucking Association (ATA), the Truck Tonnage Index declined by
2% y-o-y in March after increasing by 4% y-o-y in February. Furthermore, industrial output in the US showed
stagnant growth in March, as reported by the Federal Reserve Board.
Table 4 - 3: US oil demand, mb/d
US oil demand Change Mar 24/Mar 23
By product Mar 23 Mar 24 Growth %
LPG 3.31 3.60 0.29 8.7
Naphtha 0.14 0.15 0.00 1.4
Gasoline 9.01 8.89 -0.12 -1.3
Jet/kerosene 1.61 1.66 0.05 3.1
Diesel 4.10 3.67 -0.43 -10.5
Fuel oil 0.25 0.31 0.07 26.6
Other products 1.95 1.89 -0.06 -3.2
Total 20.37 20.17 -0.21 -1.0
Sources: EIA and OPEC.
According to a report from the US Department of Transportation, seasonally-adjusted vehicle miles travelled
in March increased by 1.6%, y-o-y. Despite this, gasoline demand declined by 120 tb/d, y-o-y, down further
from a 114 tb/d, y-o-y decline in February. The observed disconnect between vehicle miles travelled and
gasoline demand may also be due in part to changes in technology and vehicle efficiency. Demand growth in
the ‘other products’ category softened by 63 tb/d, y-o-y, down from a y-o-y contraction of 52 tb/d in February.
On the positive side, the ongoing surge in petrochemical feedstock demand supported LPG demand, which
rose by 288 tb/d, y-o-y, and naphtha demand, which remained broadly unchanged, y-o-y. On the back of
healthy air travel activity, jet/kerosene increased by 50 tb/d, y-o-y, up from 34 tb/d, y-o-y, in the previous month.
According to a report from the International Air Travel Association (IATA), US domestic passenger traffic
increased by 2.6% y-o-y in March, and the International Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (RPK) increased by
14.5%, y-o-y. At the same time, demand for residual fuels increased by 66 tb/d, y-o-y, which was an
improvement from the annual decline of 101 tb/d, y-o-y, seen in the previous month.
The current sound economic dynamic, including strong private household consumption, is expected to
continue into 2H24. Furthermore, the summer driving season is now underway, and the number of travellers
that flew during this year’s Memorial Day weekend was reported to have been the highest in nearly 20 years.
Moreover, the number of US travellers expected to drive more than 50 miles from home between Memorial
Day and Labor Day weekends is around 76% of US citizens, which is 18% higher than in 2023, according to
the American Automobile Association. These factors are expected to bolster transportation fuel demand,
including gasoline and jet/kerosene. Furthermore, ongoing firm petrochemical feedstock requirements for
ethylene are also expected to boost LPG demand.
However, ongoing lacklustre manufacturing activity amid high interest rates is anticipated to weigh on demand
for diesel. Thus, US oil demand is forecast to increase by an average of about 180 tb/d, y-o-y, in 2H24, mostly
supported by demand for jet/kerosene, gasoline and LPG.
Overall, US oil demand in 2024 is forecast to increase by 182 tb/d, y-o-y, to average 20.54 mb/d, mostly
supported by transportation fuels and light distillates.
In 2025, US transportation activity is forecast to remain solid, supporting transportation fuel demand and driving
overall oil demand growth in the country. Additionally, healthy demand for LPG from petrochemical
requirements is forecast to continue. However, demand for diesel and naphtha is expected to remain subdued
as manufacturing activity has not yet shown a rebound. In 2025, US oil demand is projected to increase by
42 tb/d, y-o-y, to average 20.59 mb/d.

World Oil Demand
OECD Europe
Oil demand in OECD Europe in March declined by 41 tb/d, y-o-y, but was up from a contraction of 577 tb/d,
y-o-y, seen in the previous month. The largest decline was from diesel, which was subdued by weak
manufacturing activity.
In terms of products, diesel demand declined by 177 tb/d, y-o-y, however, an improvement from the 447 tb/d,
y-o-y, decline of the previous month. The continued decline in European diesel demand reflects the ongoing
decline in diesel-intensive industrial activity, such as with petrochemicals and steel. Furthermore, the ‘other
products’ category declined by 71 tb/d, and residual fuels saw a marginal decline of 7 tb/d, y-o-y, up from the
y-o-y contraction of 146 tb/d seen in the previous month. In terms of petrochemical products, ongoing weak
regional petrochemical steam cracker unit demand subdued naphtha requirements, which dropped by 12 tb/d,
y-o-y, from a decline of 75 tb/d, y-o-y, seen in January.
Graph 4 - 3: OECD Europe’s oil demand by main Graph 4 - 4: OECD Europe’s oil demand, y-o-y
mb/d mb/d
1.0 1.5
0.5
1.0
0.0
-0.5 0.5
-1.0 0.0
Mar 23
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
-0.5
-1.0
LPG/NGLs Naphtha
Gasoline Jet Kerosene 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year
Diesel Residual fuel oil 2022 2023 2024* 2025*
Other products Total oil Note: * 2024-2025 = Forecast.
Sources: IEA, JODI, OPEC and national sources. Source: OPEC.
On the positive side, Europe’s air traffic recovery rebounded further in March, with jet/kerosene demand
surging by 143 tb/d, y-o-y, up from growth of 80 tb/d, y-o-y, in February. A report from IATA’s Air Passenger
Market Analysis states that Europe’s international revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) grew in March by
11.6%, y-o-y, and 12.2% y-t-d. Additionally, European air travel surpassed pre-pandemic levels in terms of
RPKs in March. At the same time, gasoline increased by 52 tb/d, y-o-y, on the back of healthy driving mobility
in the region. Demand for LPG increased moderately, by 31 tb/d, y-o-y, up from an annual decline of 15 tb/d
in February.
Better-than-expected economic growth in 1Q24 in the Eurozone suggests that economic expansion could
accelerate this year, albeit at a gradual and slow pace. In addition, some additional upside potential for
economic growth could come from tourism, and more generally, the services sector, toward the summer
season, as well as from a gradual improvement in industrial production, particularly in Germany.
Transportation and air travel activity in the region is expected to continue increasing this summer, with light
products gaining ground as the summer travel season approaches. Moreover, Europe will host two major
sporting events – the Olympic Games in France and the UEFA European Football Championship in Germany
– which are both expected to boost travel and tourism demand in the region. These events are likely to
contribute positively to transportation fuel consumption, to drive regional oil demand. Furthermore, demand for
diesel could pick up in the near term with seasonal consumption from agricultural and construction companies.
Oil demand growth in the region is expected to average 23 tb/d, y-o-y, in 2H24. Petrochemical activity is also
expected to show some improvement and support naphtha demand, albeit at low levels. LPG and residual
fuels are expected to record a slight uptick. Overall, the region is set to see marginal growth of 18 tb/d, y-o-y,
in 2024 for an average of 13.42 mb/d, mostly supported by transportation fuels.
Potential improvements towards the end of 2024 are expected to carry over into 2025, with anticipated positive
GDP growth in the region. OECD Europe oil demand growth is forecast at 17 tb/d, y-o-y, driven by air travel
and driving activity. An increase in vehicle fuel efficiency and penetration of electric vehicles amid ongoing
environmental regulations may have an impact on gasoline and diesel demand. Similarly, the European
petrochemical feedstock market is poised for major changes in fundamentals, mostly due to environmental

World Oil Demand
regulations and high production costs, which could weigh on demand going forward. Overall, the region is
projected to consume an average of 13.44 mb/d in 2025.
OECD Asia Pacific

Oil demand in OECD Asia Pacific in March contracted by 42 tb/d, y-o-y, but was up from a contraction of
246 tb/d, y-o-y, seen in February. The decline reflects weak petrochemical and industrial sector requirements
for naphtha and diesel from Japan and South Korea.
In terms of products, naphtha recorded the region’s largest decline of 202 tb/d, y-o-y, down from a growth of
91 tb/d, y-o-y, the previous month. Diesel contracted by 113 tb/d, y-o-y, slightly below the decline of 110 tb/d,
y-o-y, in the previous month. Diesel was affected by prolonged weak manufacturing activity in Japan and
South Korea, which is currently witnessing some gradual improvements. In Japan, industrial production (IP) in
March declined by 3.0%, y-o-y, but was up from a contraction of 6.7%, y-o-y in February. In South Korea,
seasonally adjusted IP increased by 6.1%, y-o-y, in April, from 2.7%, y-o-y, in March. Residual fuel and
gasoline declined, y-o-y, by 30 tb/d and 16 tb/d, respectively, a significant improvement compared to the
previous month.
Graph 4 - 5: OECD Asia Pacific oil demand by main Graph 4 - 6: OECD Asia Pacific oil demand, y-o-y
mb/d mb/d
0.6 0.2
0.3
0.0 0.1
-0.3
0.0
-0.6
Mar 23
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
-0.1
LPG/NGLs Naphtha -0.2

Gasoline Jet Kerosene 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year
Sources: IEA, JODI, METI and OPEC. Source: OPEC.
On the positive side, jet/kerosene surged by 139 tb/d, y-o-y, up from the annual decline of 10 tb/d seen in the
previous month. Demand in the region was supported by an ongoing rebound in air travel across the region.
A report from IATA’s Air Passenger Market Analysis states that air travel in the Asia Pacific region continues
to rise at a rapid pace, with international revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) surging by 38.5%, y-o-y, in
March. Demand for LPG expanded by 111 tb/d, y-o-y, up from a 63 tb/d, y-o-y, decline in February. The
increase was largely supported by requirements from South Korea and Australia. The ‘other products’ category
increased by 69 tb/d, y-o-y, up from a 27 tb/d, y-o-y, decline in the previous month.
Following a slight rebound in Japan’s economic activity in 1Q24, consumer confidence remained sound amid
rising tourism activity. Increasing visitor numbers and higher per capita spending driven by the yen's weakness
are providing support to Japan’s economy. Moreover, the services sector PMI, constituting around two-thirds
of the Japanese economy, indicated ongoing sound developments in the services sector. Similarly, South
Korea’s manufacturing PMI showed a gradual improvement from previously sluggish numbers. A steady
recovery in air traffic, along with improvements in driving activity and petrochemical industry operations, is
anticipated to support the region’s oil demand growth, which is projected to increase in 2H24 by an average of
nearly 20 tb/d, y-o-y. Overall, oil demand in OECD Asia Pacific is expected to remain broadly unchanged,
y-o-y, in 2024, with the region forecast to consume an average of 7.32 mb/d.
Positive economic momentum, particularly in 2H24, is forecast to carry over into 2025. In addition,
transportation and petrochemical sector requirements are expected to continue supporting OECD Asia Pacific
oil demand, which is forecast to grow marginally, by 11 tb/d, y-o-y, for an average of 7.33 mb/d.

World Oil Demand
Non-OECD
China
China’s oil demand in April expanded by 418 tb/d, y-o-y, down from 834 tb/d, y-o-y, growth seen the previous
month. The relative m-o-m decline in April compared to the previous month was due to a strong baseline
comparison amid an easing of travel activities after the Lunar Year boost in transportation activity. Demand
was driven by strong petrochemical feedstock requirements amid healthy transportation sector demand.
The surging petrochemical feedstock requirements resulted in naphtha expanding by 200 tb/d, y-o-y, up from
healthy growth of 182 tb/d, y-o-y, seen in March. LPG saw an uptick of 46 tb/d, down from growth of 439 tb/d,
y-o-y, seen in the previous month. Growth in LPG was also affected by a strong baseline. Gasoline expanded
by 165 tb/d, y-o-y, down from growth of 256 tb/d, y-o-y, in March. The relative decline in gasoline growth was
due to a slight m-o-m slowdown in driving mobility. Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics/Haver
Analytics indicates that passenger traffic (per 100 million persons-kilometres) rose by 17%, y-o-y, in April. This
compares to a jump of 20.8%, y-o-y, in March. In addition, gasoline growth was subdued by intense flooding
in China’s Guangdong province, which led to a reduction in road traffic in that region. Jet/kerosene posted
growth of 106 tb/d, y-o-y, slightly down from growth of 117 tb/d, y-o-y the previous month, on the back of
ongoing air travel recovery. Healthy jet/kerosene demand in April was consistent with a report from China’s
Civil Aviation Administration, which shows that domestic and international air travel turnover increased by 4.8%
and 75.1%, y-o-y, in April, respectively. The ‘other products’ category, which includes bitumen, surged by
125 tb/d, y-o-y, from a slight decline of 9 tb/d, y-o-y, in March.
Graph 4 - 7: China’s oil demand by main petroleum Graph 4 - 8: China’s oil demand, y-o-y change
product category, y-o-y change
mb/d mb/d
4 2.0
2 1.5
0 1.0
-2 0.5
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
0.0
-0.5
LPG Naphtha -1.0
Gasoline Jet/kerosene
-1.5
Gas diesel oil Residual fuel oil
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year
Sources: Chinese Petroleum Data Monthly, Chinese 2022 2023 2024* 2025*
National Bureau of Statistics, JODI, Non-OECD Energy Note: * 2024-2025 = Forecast.
Statistics, Argus Global Markets, Argus China, and OPEC. Source: OPEC.
Residual fuels declined by 124 tb/d, y-o-y, up from a drop of 194 tb/d y-o-y the previous month. Diesel declined
by 101 tb/d, y-o-y, down from a growth of 43 tb/d, y-o-y, the previous month. Diesel was partly affected by a
strong baseline comparison and intense flooding in China’s Guangdong province in April, which impacted
economic activity in the province.
Table 4 - 4: China’s oil demand*, mb/d
China's oil demand Change Apr 24/Apr 23
By product Apr 23 Apr 24 Growth %
LPG 2.45 2.50 0.05 1.9
Naphtha 1.53 1.73 0.20 13.1
Gasoline 3.90 4.07 0.17 4.2
Jet/kerosene 0.93 1.03 0.11 11.4
Diesel 3.67 3.57 -0.10 -2.7
Fuel oil 0.99 0.87 -0.12 -12.5
Other products 2.66 2.78 0.13 4.7
Total 16.13 16.55 0.42 2.6
Note: * Apparent oil demand. Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.
Sources: Argus Global Markets, China OGP (Xinhua News Agency), Facts Global Energy, JODI, National Bureau of Statistics
China and OPEC.

World Oil Demand
Looking ahead, on the back of robust economic activity, the travel sector is expected to continue to support oil
demand in China in 2H24. Jet/kerosene and gasoline are expected to lead oil demand growth amid ongoing
air travel recovery and healthy road mobility. Moreover, the new upcoming capacity additions are expected to
support more demand for petrochemical feedstocks later this year. In 2H24, China’s oil product demand is
expected to expand by almost 0.7 mb/d, y-o-y.
The industrial sector and, in particular, manufacturing activity are expected to gain support from the
government’s policy to support manufacturing and high-tech industries. The just-concluded Chinese People’s
Political Consultative Conference and National People’s Congress meetings reiterated their drive for support
of economic recovery through boosting consumption by relaxing foreign investment restrictions and enhancing
the development of strategic emerging industries.
China’s manufacturing and services indices have been above expansionary territory for more than six months,
suggesting a sign of strength for oil demand in the near term. Moreover, robust global demand for finished
goods for export is expected at the end of the year, feeding into demand for petrochemical products. Overall,
oil demand is forecast to grow by more than 0.7 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 16.98 mb/d. However, ongoing
headwinds in the real estate sector are anticipated to continue to weigh on diesel demand.
In 2025, steady economic growth and healthy travel activity are expected to continue to support oil demand,
with China remaining the global leader in oil demand growth, increasing by 0.4 mb/d, y-o-y, to average
17.4 mb/d. China is also projected to lead global petrochemical feedstock demand growth, with jet fuel demand
set to rise due to an ongoing increase in air transportation requirements.
India
In April, India’s oil demand surged by 333 tb/d, y-o-y, up from y-o-y growth of 169 tb/d in the previous month.
The annual demand increase was largely supported by gasoline and diesel.
The largest oil demand increase in April was recorded for gasoline, which grew by 156 tb/d, y-o-y, up from an
increase of 59 tb/d, y-o-y, seen in March. Gasoline demand was supported by healthy mobility during the
general election campaigns. A report from the Ministry of Road Transport & Highways/Haver Analytics shows
that gasoline motor vehicle registrations increased by 29.17% y-o-y in April. This is consistent with a report
from the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) Society of India, which indicated that April
vehicle sales in India rose by 27%, y-o-y, and 3.7%, m-o-m.
With India’s manufacturing industry seeing solid growth in April, diesel requirements saw an uptick of 64 tb/d,
y-o-y, up from a growth of 56 tb/d, y-o-y, seen in the previous month. Diesel was supported by agricultural
sector requirements amid an increase in industrial and mining activities in various parts of India.
Graph 4 – 9: India’s oil demand by main petroleum Graph 4 – 10: India’s oil demand, y-o-y change
product category, y-o-y change
mb/d mb/d
0.6 0.8
0.4
0.2 0.6
0.0
-0.2
-0.4 0.4
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
0.2
LPG Naphtha 0.0

Gasoline Jet/kerosene 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year
Diesel Residual fuel oil
Other products Total oil 2022 2023 2024* 2025*
Sources: PPAC, JODI, Non-OECD Energy Statistics and Note: * 2024-2025 = Forecast.
OPEC. Source: OPEC.

World Oil Demand
In terms of petrochemical feedstocks, LPG grew by 46 tb/d, y-o-y, from an increase of 77 tb/d, seen in March.
LPG consumption during the year has been largely driven by household demand, which makes up 88.4% of
total LPG requirements. Naphtha saw an uptick of 25 tb/d, y-o-y, up from growth of 12 tb/d, y-o-y. Jet/kerosene
increased by 27 tb/d, y-o-y, up from an increase of 18 tb/d, y-o-y, in the previous month. According to a report
from the Indian Directorate General of Civil Aviation, Indian domestic airlines recorded a 2.4% y-o-y increase
in April 2024. The ‘other products’ category, which includes bitumen, increased by 34 tb/d, y-o-y, up from an
annual decline of 44 tb/d in the previous month. During April, total bitumen consumption registered at 9.9%
y-o-y growth. Major factors contributing to bitumen consumption during the month included road construction
activity, which was in full swing during the month as 98% of cumulative bitumen sales were attributed to road
construction.
Residual fuels declined by 20 tb/d, y-o-y, down from an 11 tb/d, y-o-y decline in the previous month. Residual
fuel requirements were subdued by the consumption shift to natural gas due to the increased and wider
availability of gas coupled with the banning of fuel oil used in industries across various parts of the country.
Table 4 - 5: India’s oil demand, mb/d
India's oil demand Change Apr 24/Apr 23
By product Apr 23 Apr 24 Growth %
LPG 0.84 0.88 0.05 5.5
Naphtha 0.33 0.36 0.03 7.7
Gasoline 0.82 0.97 0.16 19.2
Jet/kerosene 0.18 0.21 0.03 15.0
Diesel 1.96 2.02 0.06 3.3
Fuel oil 0.13 0.11 -0.02 -15.2
Other products 0.93 0.97 0.03 3.6
Total 5.18 5.51 0.33 6.4
Sources: JODI, Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell of India and OPEC.
In the near term, the current strong economic growth amid a positive outlook for manufacturing activity and
investments is expected to bolster oil demand in 2H24 to grow by 0.2 mb/d, y-o-y, on average. Moreover, the
government is focused on the manufacturing sector to further support the economy amid an expected surge
in construction. Oil demand is also likely to receive a boost from a cut to retail gasoline and diesel prices by
around 2 rupees/litre ($3.80/b) from 15 March to boost consumer spending and reduce vehicle operating costs.
Furthermore, India is expected to see a 'normal' monsoon this year, as per private weather forecaster Skymet,
which will help support a good agricultural harvest.
Overall, these factors are expected to bolster India’s oil demand. Additionally, the country’s annual traditional
festivities are set to support transportation activity and boost gasoline demand. Finally, the ongoing air travel
recovery is anticipated to support jet/kerosene demand. In 2024, India is expected to see healthy oil demand
growth of 233 tb/d, y-o-y, for an average of 5.58 mb/d.
The healthy economic momentum is expected to continue into 2025. Furthermore, manufacturing and business
activities in India are expected to be steady, supporting an oil demand increase of 228 tb/d, y-o-y. Diesel is
expected to continue being the main driver of demand, followed by the ‘other products’ category, in particular
bitumen. Additionally, robust growth in transport fuels and growth in LPG and naphtha demand are expected
to remain healthy and support oil demand during the year.
Latin America
Oil demand in Latin America in March softened by 42 tb/d, y-o-y, amid a strong baseline effect and relative
declines from Argentina and Brazil, which more than offset the 34 tb/d, y-o-y growth recorded in Venezuela.
Most of the regional oil demand decline was from diesel and gasoline.
In terms of demand by product, diesel recorded the largest contraction, by 125 tb/d, y-o-y, down from a minor
9 tb/d, y-o-y increase in the previous month. Gasoline declined by 56 tb/d, y-o-y, but was up from the 150 tb/d,
y-o-y decline in the previous month. Residual fuels saw a marginal decline of 4 tb/d, y-o-y. In terms of
petrochemical feedstocks, LPG softened by 17 tb/d, y-o-y.

World Oil Demand
Graph 4 - 11: Latin America’s oil demand by main Graph 4 - 12: Latin America’s oil demand, y-o-y
mb/d mb/d
0.6 0.4
0.4
0.2 0.3
0.0
-0.2 0.2
-0.4
Mar 23
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
0.1
0.0
LPG Naphtha
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year
Gasoline Jet/kerosene
Sources: JODI, Non-OECD Energy Statistics and OPEC. Source: OPEC.
The largest increase was recorded in the ‘other products’ category with 121 tb/d, y-o-y growth. On the back of
ongoing air travel recovery, jet/kerosene saw growth of 23 tb/d, y-o-y, up from growth of 17 tb/d, y-o-y, in the
previous month. A report from IATA’s Air Passenger Market Analysis states that Latin American carriers saw
a 19.7% increase in traffic during March. Compared to the same period last year, momentum persisted as
tourism to Latin America gained strength. Within the region, Brazil's RPK grew by 1.6% y-o-y and by 0.6%
m-o-m in seasonally adjusted terms. At the same time, demand for naphtha increased by 16 tb/d, y-o-y, up
from a marginal 2 tb/d, y-o-y decline in the previous month.
Looking ahead in 2H24, ongoing strong consumer spending, driven by rising real wages, lower inflation and
declining interest rates, is expected to be the main driver of growth in Brazil, the largest oil-consuming country
in the region. In addition, forward-looking indicators from Brazil indicate a positive growth trajectory in services
and manufacturing activities. The services PMI in Australia has also been on an expansion trajectory since
February. Additionally, the air travel recovery is set to continue and boost oil demand in the region, which is
expected to show growth of 193 tb/d, y-o-y, in 2H24. In 2024, oil demand is expected to expand by 180 tb/d,
y-o-y, to average 6.87 mb/d. Specifically, transportation fuels – jet/kerosene gasoline and diesel – are projected
to drive overall oil demand growth.
In 2025, healthy economic activity amid an expected acceleration in Brazil's economy, which will likely stem
from fiscal consolidation and the early benefits of tax reforms, is expected to support oil demand in the region.
Both transportation and manufacturing activities are expected to support average oil demand growth of
200 tb/d, y-o-y, for an average of 7.07 mb/d. Transportation fuels, including gasoline, jet/ kerosene and diesel,
are anticipated to drive demand growth.
Middle East
Oil demand in the Middle East during March registered an uptick of 12 tb/d, y-o-y, below the 123 tb/d, y-o-y,
growth recorded in the previous month. The overall weak m-o-m demand growth was due to a strong baseline
effect amid declines in diesel, residual fuel oil and the ‘other products’ category.
Jet/kerosene was the main driver of oil demand growth at 23 tb/d, y-o-y. The product was supported by steady
air travel recovery in the region, as a report from IATA showed that the International RPKs in the Middle East
registered growth of 10.8% y-o-y in March. At the same time, gasoline increased slightly by 12 tb/d, y-o-y,
down from an increase of 49 tb/d, y-o-y in February. In terms of petrochemical feedstock, LPG saw an uptick
of 9 tb/d, y-o-y, below 17 tb/d, y-o-y growth seen in the previous month. Naphtha demand increased by 22 tb/d,
y-o-y, up from a decline of 5 tb/d, y-o-y, in the previous month.

World Oil Demand
Graph 4 - 13: Middle East’s oil demand by main Graph 4 - 14: Middle East’s oil demand, y-o-y change
petroleum product category, y-o-y change
mb/d mb/d
0.6 0.7
0.4 0.6
0.2 0.5
0.0 0.4
-0.2 0.3
Mar 23
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
0.2
0.1
0.0
LPG/NGLs Naphtha 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year
Gasoline Jet Kerosene
Sources: JODI, Non-OECD Energy Statistics and OPEC. Source: OPEC.
Diesel demand in the Middle East region contracted by 20 tb/d, y-o-y, from a decline of 4 tb/d, y-o-y seen the
previous month. While the ‘other products’ category declined by 27 tb/d, y-o-y, residual fuel softened by 8 tb/d,
y-o-y.
In the near term, the largest economies of the region continue to demonstrate robust growth in their non-oil
sectors, driven by strong government support and solid consumer spending. Economic activity in the region is
expected to remain robust to support oil demand. In addition, the ongoing Hajj is expected to bolster
transportation activity and requirements for air conditioning in Saudi Arabia. Moreover, during the peak months
of summer in the Middle East, the high temperatures across the region are expected to boost demand for air
conditioning. The current focus on petrochemical sector development is set to bolster petrochemical feedstock
requirements in the region. Accordingly, these factors are projected to support overall oil demand growth,
which is forecast to expand by an average of 323 tb/d, y-o-y, in 2H24. Overall, Middle East oil demand in 2024
is expected to grow by 255 tb/d, y-o-y, for an average of 8.89 mb/d.
In 2025, healthy economic dynamics amid spending on infrastructure and mega projects in the region are
projected to continue. In addition, mobility and petrochemical sector requirements are expected to remain
steady. These factors should support demand for transportation fuels and other distillates. Accordingly,
regional oil demand in 2025 is expected to expand by 382 tb/d, y-o-y, to reach an average of 9.27 mb/d.

World Oil Supply
World Oil Supply

Non-DoC liquids supply (i.e. liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of
Cooperation) is expected to expand by 1.2 mb/d in 2024 to average 53.0 mb/d, unchanged from the
previous month’s assessment.
Following disruptions at the beginning of the year, US crude and condensate production in March returned close
to its all-time high and natural gas liquids (NGLs) production set a new record. Accordingly, US liquids supply
growth for 2024 is estimated at 0.4 mb/d. In addition to the US, the main drivers for expected non-DoC growth
in 2024 are Canada, Brazil and Norway.
In 2025, non-DoC liquids supply growth is expected at 1.1 mb/d to average 54.1 mb/d, broadly unchanged
from the previous month’s assessment. Growth is mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway,
while the main decline is expected in Angola.
DoC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by around 0.1 mb/d to average 8.3 mb/d in
2024, followed by an increase of around 20 tb/d to average 8.3 mb/d in 2025. OPEC NGLs and
non-conventional liquids production is expected to increase by around 60 tb/d to average 5.5 mb/d in 2024,
and additional growth of 110 tb/d is forecast in 2025 to average 5.6 mb/d.
DoC crude oil production in May decreased by 123 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging 40.92 mb/d, as reported by
available secondary sources.
Key drivers of growth and decline

Non-DoC liquids supply (i.e. liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation)
is expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2024, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main
drivers for non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2024 are expected to be the US, Canada, Brazil and Norway.
Graph 5 - 1: Annual liquids production changes, Graph 5 - 2: Annual liquids production changes,
y-o-y, for selected countries in 2024* y-o-y, for selected countries in 2025*
US 0.44 US 0.50
Canada 0.23 Brazil 0.18

Non-DoC Non-DoC
supply supply
Brazil 0.11 growth Canada 0.16 growth
2024/23 2025/24
1.23 mb/d 1.10 mb/d
Norway 0.10 Norway 0.10
mb/d mb/d
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Note: * 2024 = Forecast. Source: OPEC. Note: * 2025 = Forecast. Source: OPEC.
In 2025, non-DoC liquids supply growth is expected at 1.1 mb/d, largely unchanged from the previous month’s
assessment. Growth is set to be mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway.

World Oil Supply
Non-DoC liquids production in 2024 and 2025**

Table 5 - 1: Non-DoC liquids production in 2024*, mb/d
Change 2024/23
Non-DoC liquids production 2023 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2024 Growth %
Americas 26.60 26.92 27.20 27.38 27.58 27.27 0.67 2.54
of which US 20.90 21.02 21.40 21.43 21.51 21.34 0.44 2.12
Europe 3.65 3.67 3.74 3.73 3.88 3.76 0.10 2.80
Asia Pacific 0.44 0.45 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.44 -0.01 -1.78
Total OECD 30.69 31.04 31.37 31.54 31.89 31.46 0.77 2.51
China 4.52 4.62 4.59 4.46 4.46 4.53 0.02 0.35
India 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.78 0.01 1.32
Other Asia 1.61 1.62 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.59 -0.02 -1.37
Latin America 6.96 7.28 7.20 7.42 7.47 7.34 0.38 5.50
Middle East 2.02 2.00 2.02 2.01 2.02 2.01 -0.01 -0.57
Africa 2.22 2.26 2.26 2.24 2.27 2.26 0.04 1.59
Other Eurasia 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.00 0.28
Other Europe 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.00 -1.15
Total Non-OECD 18.57 19.02 18.91 18.96 19.03 18.98 0.41 2.21
Total Non-DoC production 49.26 50.06 50.27 50.50 50.93 50.44 1.18 2.39
Processing gains 2.47 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 0.05 2.03
Total Non-DoC liquids production 51.73 52.58 52.79 53.02 53.45 52.96 1.23 2.38
Previous estimate 51.73 52.51 52.69 52.94 53.70 52.96 1.23 2.38
Revision 0.01 0.07 0.11 0.08 -0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00
Source: OPEC.
Table 5 - 2: Non-DoC liquids production in 2025*, mb/d

Change 2025/24
Non-DoC liquids production 2024 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025 Growth %
Americas 27.27 27.87 27.66 27.90 28.29 27.93 0.66 2.43
of which US 21.34 21.74 21.77 21.82 22.03 21.84 0.50 2.34
Europe 3.76 3.93 3.81 3.79 3.90 3.86 0.10 2.67
Asia Pacific 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.43 -0.01 -1.79
Total OECD 31.46 32.23 31.89 32.12 32.62 32.22 0.76 2.40
China 4.53 4.57 4.55 4.51 4.52 4.54 0.01 0.13
India 0.78 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.80 0.79 0.01 1.00
Other Asia 1.59 1.58 1.56 1.55 1.54 1.56 -0.03 -1.83
Latin America 7.34 7.50 7.54 7.62 7.75 7.60 0.26 3.58
Middle East 2.01 2.01 2.04 2.04 2.03 2.03 0.02 1.01
Africa 2.26 2.28 2.28 2.28 2.27 2.28 0.02 0.76
Other Eurasia 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.00 0.07
Other Europe 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.00 1.97
Total Non-OECD 18.98 19.20 19.23 19.26 19.38 19.27 0.29 1.51
Total Non-DoC production 50.44 51.43 51.12 51.39 52.00 51.49 1.04 2.07
Processing gains 2.52 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.58 0.06 2.38
Total Non-DoC liquids production 52.96 54.01 53.70 53.97 54.58 54.07 1.10 2.08
Previous estimate 52.96 54.01 53.70 53.97 54.58 54.06 1.10 2.08
Revision 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Source: OPEC.

World Oil Supply
OECD
For 2024, OECD liquids production (excluding DoC Graph 5 - 3: OECD quarterly liquids supply,
participating country Mexico) is anticipated to expand y-o-y changes
by 0.8 mb/d to average 31.5 mb/d. Growth is set to be mb/d
led by OECD Americas, with an expected increase of 2.5
0.7 mb/d to average 27.3 mb/d. This is revised down
by about 10 tb/d compared with the previous month's 2.0
2.08
assessment. Yearly liquids production in OECD
Europe is expected to rise by 0.1 mb/d to average 1.5
1.73
1.55
1.55
3.8 mb/d, which is revised down by around 10 tb/d
1.0
1.21
1.19
compared with the previous assessment.
1.09
OECD Asia Pacific is expected to decline by 8 tb/d, 0.5
0.73
0.60
0.20
0.52
0.58
y-o-y, to average 0.4 mb/d.
0.0
OECD liquids production is forecast to grow by
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24*
3Q24*
4Q24*
1Q25*
2Q25*
3Q25*
4Q25*
0.8 mb/d to average 32.2 mb/d in 2025. OECD
Americas is expected to be the main growth driver,
with an expected increase of 0.7 mb/d for an average Note: * 2Q24-4Q25 = Forecast. Source: OPEC.
of 27.9 mb/d. Yearly liquids production in OECD
Europe is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d to average 3.9 mb/d, while OECD Asia Pacific is expected to decline
by a minor 8 tb/d, y-o-y, to average 0.4 mb/d.
OECD Americas
US
US liquids production in March rose by 0.3 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 21.6 mb/d. This was 1.2 mb/d higher than
in March 2023.
Crude oil and condensate production rose by 77 tb/d, Graph 5 - 4: US monthly liquids output by key
m-o-m, to average 13.2 mb/d in March, up by 0.4 component
mb/d, y-o-y. mb/d
25
In terms of crude and condensate production 21.62
breakdown by region (PADDs), production increased 20
on the US Gulf Coast (USGC) by 99 tb/d to average
15
9.6 mb/d. Production on the East and West Coasts
remained broadly unchanged. While output in the 10
Midwest fell by 31 tb/d, the Rocky Mountain region 5
saw output rise by 10 tb/d, m-o-m.
0
A jump in production in the main producing regions
Mar 23
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
can primarily be attributed to higher output in Texas,

New Mexico and the offshore Gulf of Mexico (GoM).
Production in North Dakota fell m-o-m, due to cold Crude NGLs Others Total
late-winter weather in March. Sources: EIA and OPEC.
NGLs production rose by 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 6.8 mb/d in March. This was 0.6 mb/d higher,
y-o-y. According to the US Department of Energy (DoE), the production of non-conventional liquids (mainly
ethanol) rose by 19 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 1.6 mb/d. Preliminary estimates show non-conventional liquids
averaging about 1.5 mb/d in April, lower by 0.1 mb/d, m-o-m.
GoM production increased by 30 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 1.8 mb/d in March. Output is still lower than
expectations due to several operational issues on a number of platforms, but GoM production remains
supported by new project ramp-ups. In the onshore Lower 48, crude and condensate production rose by 46 tb/d,
m-o-m, to an average of 10.9 mb/d in March.

World Oil Supply
Table 5 - 3: US crude oil production by selected state and region, tb/d

Change
State Mar 23 Feb 24 Mar 24 m-o-m y-o-y
Texas 5,454 5,548 5,584 36 130
New Mexico 1,840 1,982 2,014 32 174
Gulf of Mexico (GOM) 1,874 1,793 1,823 30 -51
North Dakota 1,094 1,248 1,214 -34 120
Colorado 433 468 473 5 40
Alaska 435 432 433 1 -2
Oklahoma 434 397 400 3 -34
Total 12,770 13,105 13,182 77 412
In terms of individual US states, New Mexico’s oil production rose by 32 tb/d to average 2.0 mb/d, which is
0.2 mb/d higher than a year ago. Production from Texas was up by 36 tb/d to average 5.6 mb/d, which is
130 tb/d higher than a year ago. In the Midwest, North Dakota’s production fell by 34 tb/d, m-o-m, to average
1.2 mb/d, up 120 tb/d, y-o-y, while Oklahoma's production increased by just 3 tb/d m-o-m, to average 0.4 mb/d.
Production in Colorado rose by 5 tb/d, m-o-m, while output in Alaska remained mostly unchanged.
Graph 5 - 5: US monthly crude oil and total liquids Graph 5 - 6: US monthly crude oil and total liquids
supply supply, m-o-m changes
mb/d mb/d
25 2
1.21
21.62
0.55
20 1
0.29
0.08
15
0
10 13.18
-1
5
0 -2
Mar 23
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Mar 23
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
US total liquids production US crude oil production US total liquids production US crude oil production
Sources: EIA and OPEC. Sources: EIA and OPEC.
US tight crude output in March is estimated to have Graph 5 - 7: US tight crude output breakdown
fallen by 26 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 8.6 mb/d, mb/d
according to the latest estimates from the US Energy 10
8.6
Information Administration (EIA). This was 0.3 mb/d 8.3
higher than in the same month last year. 8
The m-o-m drop from shale and tight formations using 6

horizontal wells came mainly from Permian shale
production in Texas and New Mexico, where output 4
fell by 11 tb/d for an average of 5.3 mb/d. However,
this was up by 0.3 mb/d, y-o-y. 2
Mar 23
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
In North Dakota, Bakken shale oil output remained

largely unchanged, m-o-m. It averaged 1.2 mb/d, or
130 tb/d higher, y-o-y. Tight crude output at Eagle Permian Eagle Ford Bakken Niobrara Others
Ford in Texas remained unchanged at an average of Sources: EIA and OPEC.
0.9 mb/d, albeit down by 103 tb/d, y-o-y. Production
at Niobrara-Codell in Colorado and Wyoming was
largely unchanged at an average of 490 tb/d.

World Oil Supply
US liquids production in 2024, excluding processing Graph 5 - 8: US liquids supply developments by

gains, is expected to grow by 0.4 mb/d, y-o-y, to component
average 21.3 mb/d. This is broadly unchanged from mb/d
the previous assessment. The forecast assumes a 25
modest level of drilling activity and fewer supply 20 Non-
chain/logistical issues this year at the prolific Permian, 15 crude
Bakken and Eagle Ford shale sites.
10 Crude
Crude oil and condensate output in 2024 are expected 5 oil
to increase by 0.3 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 13.2 mb/d.
At the same time, NGLs production and that of non- 0
2024*
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
conventional liquids, particularly ethanol, is projected
to increase by 0.1 mb/d and 30 tb/d,
Biofuels + Other liquids Other NGL
y-o-y, to average 6.6 mb/d and 1.6 mb/d, respectively. Unconventional NGL Other crudes
Gulf of Mexico crude Tight crude
Source: OPEC.
Average tight crude output in 2024 is expected to reach 8.8 mb/d, up by 0.4 mb/d, y-o-y. The 2024 forecast
assumes ongoing capital discipline and less inflationary pressure, as well as moderating supply chain issues
and oil field service constraints. At the same time, well productivity and operational efficiency improvements
are expected to support crude production amid moderate drilling activity increases.
US liquids production, excluding processing gains, is expected to grow by 0.5 mb/d, y-o-y, to average
21.8 mb/d in 2025. This assumes a mild increase in drilling activity, lower service cost inflation and continued
well productivity improvements in the key shale basins. Crude oil and condensate output is expected to rise
by 0.3 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 13.5 mb/d. At the same time, NGLs production and that of non-conventional
liquids, particularly ethanol, is projected to increase, y-o-y, by 0.2 mb/d and 20 tb/d, to average 6.7 mb/d and
1.6 mb/d, respectively. Average tight crude output in 2025 is expected to reach 9.2 mb/d, up by 0.4 mb/d,
y-o-y. The 2025 forecast assumes ongoing capital discipline in the US upstream sector.
Table 5 - 4: US liquids production breakdown, mb/d
Change Change Change
US liquids 2023 2023/22 2024* 2024/23 2025* 2025/24
Tight crude 8.40 0.64 8.76 0.36 9.16 0.40
Gulf of Mexico crude 1.86 0.13 1.86 0.00 1.95 0.09
Conventional crude oil 2.66 0.25 2.60 -0.06 2.40 -0.20
Total crude 12.93 1.02 13.22 0.30 13.51 0.29
Unconventional NGLs 5.31 0.53 5.46 0.15 5.67 0.21
Conventional NGLs 1.12 -0.03 1.09 -0.03 1.07 -0.02
Total NGLs 6.43 0.50 6.55 0.12 6.74 0.19
Biofuels + Other liquids 1.54 0.10 1.57 0.03 1.59 0.02
US total supply 20.90 1.61 21.34 0.44 21.84 0.50
Sources: EIA, OPEC and Rystad Energy.
US tight crude production in the Permian during 2024 is expected to increase by 0.3 mb/d, y-o-y, to average
5.4 mb/d. In 2025, it is forecast to grow by 0.3 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 5.7 mb/d.
In North Dakota, Bakken shale production is still expected to remain below the pre-pandemic average of
1.4 mb/d. Growth of just 35 tb/d and 25 tb/d is expected for 2024 and 2025, respectively, for an average of
around 1.2 mb/d over both years. This trend could indicate maturity in the basin.

World Oil Supply
Eagle Ford in Texas saw an output of 1.2 mb/d in Graph 5 - 9: US tight crude output by shale play,
2019, followed by declines in 2020 and 2021, and no y-o-y changes
meaningful growth in 2022. With an estimated growth tb/d
of about 33 tb/d for 2023, output is around an average 700 636
of 1.0 mb/d. Minor growth of 10 tb/d and 15 tb/d is 600
expected for 2024 and 2025, respectively. 500 399
360
Niobrara’s production is expected to rise by around 15 400
tb/d, y-o-y, in 2024, to average 0.5 mb/d. With an 300
expected growth of 20 tb/d, the output is forecast to 200
remain at 0.5 mb/d for 2025. 100
0
In the remaining tight plays, which are experiencing a 2023 2024* 2025*
modest pace in drilling and completion activities,
Permian Bakken Eagle Ford
production is expected to drop by a minor 9 tb/d this Niobrara Others Total
year and to stabilize in 2025.
Table 5 - 5: US tight oil production growth, mb/d

Change Change Change
US tight oil 2023 2023/22 2024* 2024/23 2025* 2025/24
Permian tight 5.06 0.46 5.37 0.31 5.71 0.34
Bakken shale 1.16 0.13 1.19 0.04 1.22 0.03
Eagle Ford shale 1.00 0.03 1.01 0.01 1.02 0.02
Niobrara shale 0.45 0.02 0.47 0.02 0.49 0.02
Other tight plays 0.73 0.00 0.72 -0.01 0.72 0.00
Total 8.40 0.64 8.76 0.36 9.16 0.40
Source: OPEC.
US rig count, spudded, completed, DUC wells and fracking activity

The total number of active US oil and gas drilling rigs Graph 5 - 10: US weekly rig count vs. US crude oil
in the week ending 31 May 2024 remained unchanged output and WTI price
at 600, according to Baker Hughes. This is 96 fewer US$/b Rigs mb/d
rigs than a year ago. The number of active offshore 95 600 14
rigs rose by one, w-o-w, to 22. This is two more than
in the same month a year earlier. The number of 85 550 13
onshore oil and gas rigs dropped by one, w-o-w, to
stand at 578, with no rigs in inland waters. This is 75 500 12
down by 96 rigs, y-o-y.
The US horizontal rig count dropped by one, 65 450 11
w-o-w, to 536, compared with 628 horizontal rigs a
3 Aug 23
2 Sep 23
29 Apr 24
5 May 23
2 Oct 23
30 Jan 24
30 Mar 24
4 Jun 23
4 Jul 23
29 Feb 24
31 Dec 23
1 Nov 23
1 Dec 23
29 May 24
year ago. The number of drilling rigs for oil fell by one,
w-o-w, to 496, while the number of gas drilling rigs
rose by one, w-o-w, to 100.
WTI Oil rig count Crude oil output
Sources: Baker Hughes, EIA and OPEC.
The Permian’s rig count fell by two, w-o-w, to 310. Rig counts remained unchanged in Williston and
DJ-Niobrara at 34 and 10, respectively. The number of rigs rose by one, w-o-w, in Eagle Ford to 51, while it
dropped by four in Cana Woodford to 17.

World Oil Supply
Drilling and completion (D&C) activities for spudded, Graph 5 - 11: Spudded, completed and started wells
completed and started oil-producing wells in all US in US shale plays
shale plays included 808 horizontal wells spudded in Wells
April (as per preliminary data), based on the US EIA 1,000
Drilling Productivity Report. This is lower by 30, m-o- 880
m, and 1% higher than in April of last year. 842
800
Preliminary data for April indicates a higher number of 774
completed wells, m-o-m, at 902, though the number is
down by 4%, y-o-y. The number of started wells is 600
estimated at 670, which is 25% lower than a year
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
earlier.
Preliminary data for May saw 842 spudded,
880 completed and 774 started wells, according to Spudded wells Completed wells
Rystad Energy. Started wells
Note: Apr 24-May 24 = Preliminary data.
Sources: Rystad Energy and OPEC.
In terms of identified US oil and gas fracking Graph 5 - 12: Fracked wells count per month
operations by region, Rystad Energy reported that No. of wells
1,001 wells were fracked in March. In April and May, 1,500
it stated that 929 and 637 wells began fracking,
respectively, according to preliminary numbers based 1,000
on an analysis of high-frequency satellite data.
500
In regional terms, preliminary April data shows that
247 and 257 wells were fracked in the Permian 0
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Midland and Permian Delaware regions, respectively.
There was a drop of 42 wells in the Midland region
and a decline of three in Delaware compared with Permian Midland Permian Delaware
March. Data also indicates that 90 wells were fracked DJ Basin Eagle Ford
in the DJ Basin, 76 in Eagle Ford and 98 in Bakken Bakken Others
during April. Note: Mar 24-Apr 24 = Preliminary data.
Sources: Rystad Energy Shale Well Cube and OPEC.
Canada
Canada's liquids production in April is estimated to Graph 5 - 13: Canada's monthly liquids production
have dropped by about 150 tb/d, m-o-m, to average development by type
5.9 mb/d. mb/d
2.4
Conventional crude production fell in April by a minor
7 tb/d, m-o-m, to an average of 1.3 mb/d. NGLs output 2.0 2.08
was down by 33 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 1.3 mb/d. 1.6
1.26
Crude bitumen production output fell in April by 1.2 1.25
44 tb/d, m-o-m, and synthetic crude production 1.23
0.8
dropped by 67 tb/d, m-o-m. Taken together, crude
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
bitumen and synthetic crude production fell by

0.1 mb/d to 3.3 mb/d.
An early start to wildfires in Western Canada on the Conventional crude NGLs
back of below-average precipitation this season has Synthetic crude Bitumen
led to concerns about potential impacts on production. Sources: Statistics Canada, Alberta Energy Regulator and
Continued extreme wildfire conditions could threaten OPEC.
oil sand operations across northeastern Alberta and
affect expected production this year.

World Oil Supply
In 2024, Canada’s liquids production is forecast to Graph 5 - 14: Canada's quarterly liquids production
increase at a much faster pace compared with 2023, and forecast
rising by 0.2 mb/d to an average of 5.9 mb/d. mb/d
Incremental production is expected to come from oil 6.6
6.4 Avg. 25
sands project ramp-ups, optimization, and the Avg. 24
expansion of existing facilities in areas like Montney, 6.2 6.09
Avg. 23 5.92
Kearl and Fort Hills, in addition to some conventional 6.0
5.8 5.69
field growth. At the same time, new trade flows could
5.6
stimulate production amid the commissioning of the 5.4
Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline. 5.2
Canada’s liquids production is forecast to grow by 5.0
4.8
0.2 mb/d to average 6.1 mb/d in 2025. Additional
4.6
production is expected to come from expanding oil
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24*
3Q24*
4Q24*
1Q25*
2Q25*
3Q25*
4Q25*
sands projects and some growth in conventional
fields. Sources of production are primarily expected
from the Athabasca, Syncrude Mildred Lake, Kearl, Note: * 2Q24-4Q25 = Forecast. Source: OPEC.
Horizon, Christina Lake, Suncor and Foster Creek oil sands projects. The main start-ups in 2025 are expected
to be Syncrude Mildred Lake/Aurora, Narrows Lake, Lloyd Thermal, Cold Lake Oil Sands and Montney Play.
OECD Europe
Norway
Norwegian liquids production in April rose by 15 tb/d, Graph 5 - 15: Norway’s monthly liquids production
m-o-m, to average 2.1 mb/d. Norway's crude development
production increased by 10 tb/d, m-o-m, in April to mb/d
average 1.9 mb/d. This remained close to historical 2.2
highs and was up by 51 tb/d, y-o-y. Monthly oil 2.10
production was 5.2% higher than the Norwegian 2.0
Offshore Directorate's (NOD) forecast.
1.8
Production of NGLs and condensate rose by just
5 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 0.3 mb/d, according to NOD 1.6
data.
For 2024, Norwegian liquids production is forecast to 1.4
Feb
Apr
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Mar
May
Jun
Jul
increase by 0.1 mb/d to average 2.1 mb/d. This was

revised down by a minor 8 tb/d from the previous 2022 2023 2024
assessment. Several projects are scheduled to ramp
Sources: The Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD) and
up this year. At the same time, start-ups are expected OPEC.
at the Balder/Ringhorne, Eldfisk, Kristin, Hanz and
PL636 offshore projects, along with the Alvheim and Skarv Aasgard floating, production, storage and offloading
(FPSO) projects. Johan Castberg is projected to be the main source of output growth, with the first oil planned
for later this year. It should be noted that according to ConocoPhillips the Eldfisk North project, located in the
Greater Ekofisk Area of the North Sea, produced first oil some weeks ahead of plan in May.
In 2025, Norwegian liquids production is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d to average 2.2 mb/d. Several small-to-
large-scale projects are scheduled to ramp up in 2025, including Johan Castberg, Kristin, Eldfisk and
Balder/Ringhorne. At the same time, start-ups are expected at the Ormen Lange, Snohvit, Halten East,
Tyrving, Eirin, Norne FPSO, Maria and Verdande projects.

World Oil Supply
UK
In April, UK liquids production dropped by 47 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 0.7 mb/d. Crude oil output fell by 43 tb/d,
m-o-m, to average 0.6 mb/d, and was lower by 54 tb/d, y-o-y, according to official data. NGLs output rose by
a minor 6 tb/d, to average 81 tb/d.
For 2024, UK liquids production is forecast to drop by Graph 5 - 16: UK monthly liquids production
about 10 tb/d to an average of 0.8 mb/d. Production development
ramp-ups will be seen at the ETAP and Clair sites, as mb/d
well as at the Anasuria and Captain enhanced oil 1.0
recovery (EOR) start-up projects. The Penguins
FPSO unit is expected to be towed out to the UK
North Sea fields in 2H24.
0.8
UK liquids production is forecast to stay steady at an 0.75
average of 0.8 mb/d in 2025. Production ramp-ups
will be seen at the Clair sites and Schiehallion.
Elsewhere, project start-ups are expected at the 0.6
Alwyn, Laggan-Tormore, Murlach (Skua
Feb
Apr
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Mar
May
Jun
Jul
redevelopment) and Janice assets. However, decline
rates from the ageing basin are expected to offset 2022 2023 2024
these additional volumes. Sources: UK Department for Business, Energy and
Industrial Strategy and OPEC.
Non-OECD
Graph 5 - 17: Non-OECD quarterly liquids Graph 5 - 18: Non-OECD quarterly liquids supply,
production and forecast y-o-y changes
mb/d mb/d
19.5 1.0
0.79
0.70
0.69
19.38
0.8
19.26
19.0
19.22
0.58
19.19
19.03
19.02
0.46
0.45
18.95
0.6
18.91
18.84
0.35
18.5
0.32
0.31
0.30
18.65
0.4
18.46
0.19
0.17
18.32
18.0
0.2
17.5 0.0
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24*
3Q24*
4Q24*
1Q25*
2Q25*
3Q25*
4Q25*
2Q24*
3Q24*
4Q24*
1Q25*
2Q25*
3Q25*
4Q25*
Note: * 2Q24-4Q25 = Forecast. Source: OPEC. Note: * 2Q24-4Q25 = Forecast. Source: OPEC.
China
China's liquids production fell by 76 tb/d, m-o-m, to Graph 5 - 19: China’s monthly liquids production
average 4.6 mb/d in April. This is up by 40 tb/d, development
y-o-y, according to official data. Crude oil output in mb/d
April averaged 4.3 mb/d, down by 76 tb/d compared 4.7
with the previous month, but higher by 46 tb/d, y-o-y.
Conversely, NGLs and condensate production 4.6
remained unchanged, m-o-m, at an average of 4.58
40 tb/d. 4.5
4.4
4.3
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Sources: CNPC and OPEC.

World Oil Supply
For 2024, China’s liquids production is expected to Graph 5 - 20: China’s quarterly liquids production
rise by about 15 tb/d, y-o-y, and is forecast to average and forecast
4.5 mb/d. This is largely unchanged from the previous mb/d
assessment. Natural decline rates are anticipated to 4.7
be offset by additional growth through more infill wells
and EOR projects. Chinese majors are set to maintain Avg. 24 Avg. 25
4.6 Avg. 23
high upstream Capex in 2024 to meet the growth 4.53 4.54
4.52
requirements stated in the 2019 Seven-Year
Exploration and Production Increase Action Plan. 4.5
For this year, Lingshui 17-2, Lufeng, Liuhua 11-1,
Xi’nan, Bozhong 19-2 Oilfield Development, Shayan 4.4
and Liuhua 4-1 (redevelopment), which are operated
by CNOOC, PetroChina and Sinopec, are expected to 4.3
come on stream. At the same time, key ramp-ups are
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24*
3Q24*
4Q24*
1Q25*
2Q25*
3Q25*
4Q25*
planned for Changqing, Kenli 10-2, Wushi 17-2 and
Kenli 6-4. Note: * 2Q24-4Q25 = Forecast. Sources: CNPC and OPEC.
In 2025, Chinese liquids production is expected to remain steady, y-o-y, and is forecast to average 4.5 mb/d.
For next year, oil and gas condensate projects like Bozhong 19-6, Huizhou 26-6, Peng Lai 19-9, Shengli,
Wushi 17-2, Liaohe and Xijiang 30-2, which are operated by CNOOC and Sinopec, are expected to come on
stream. At the same time, key ramp-ups are planned for Changqing, Tarim, Xibei, Peng Lai 19-9 and Xi'nan.
Latin America
Brazil
Brazil’s crude output in April fell by 162 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 3.2 mb/d. The April drop in output was primarily
driven by maintenance, operational issues and natural decline. NGLs production, however, remained largely
unchanged, at an average of around 80 tb/d, and is expected to remain flat in May 2024. Biofuel output (mainly
ethanol) remained unchanged, m-o-m, at an average of 0.7 mb/d, with preliminary data showing a stable trend
in May. The country’s total liquids production dropped by 0.2 mb/d in April to average 4.0 mb/d, although this
was higher by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y.
Graph 5 - 21: Brazil’s monthly liquids production Graph 5 - 22: Brazil’s quarterly liquids production
development by type
mb/d mb/d
5.0 5.0
4.5 Avg. 25
4.00 Avg. 24
4.0 4.5 Avg. 23 4.46
4.28
3.5 3.19 4.17
3.0 4.0
2.5
2.0 3.5
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
3.0
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24*
3Q24*
4Q24*
1Q25*
2Q25*
3Q25*
4Q25*
Crude oil output Liquids supply

Sources: Brazilian National Agency of Petroleum,
Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) and OPEC. Note: * 2Q24-4Q25 = Forecast. Sources: ANP and OPEC.
For 2024, Brazil’s liquids supply, including biofuels, is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average
4.3 mb/d. Crude oil output is expected to increase through production ramp-ups in the Buzios (Franco),
Mero (Libra NW), Tupi (Lula) and Itapu (Florim) fields. Oil project start-ups are expected at the Buzios, Atlanta,
Pampo-Enchova Cluster and Vida sites. However, increasing costs in the offshore market and inflation might
continue to delay projects and temper growth in the short term. Mooring operations have started in the Santos
Basin offshore Brazil for Enauta’s FPSO Atlanta. The platform is expected to start production by August and
is designed to process 50 tb/d of oil from the Atlanta Field.
Brazil’s liquids supply, including biofuels, is forecast to increase by about 180 tb/d, y-o-y, to average 4.5 mb/d
in 2025. Crude oil output is expected to increase through production ramp-ups in the Buzios (Franco), Mero
(Libra NW), Tupi (Lula), Marlim and Atlanta fields. Oil project start-ups are expected at the Buzios, Bacalhau
(x-Carcara), Parque das Baleias and Lapa (Carioca) fields.

World Oil Supply
DoC NGLs and non-conventional liquids

DoC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are Graph 5 - 23: DoC NGLs and non-conventional
estimated to expand by about 0.1 mb/d in 2024 to liquids quarterly production and forecast
average 8.3 mb/d. mb/d
12 Avg. 24
Preliminary data shows NGLs and non-conventional 10 Avg. 23 Avg. 25
8.18 8.30 8.32
liquids output in 1Q24 averaging 8.4 mb/d. According 8
to preliminary April data, 5.5 mb/d and 2.9 mb/d of 6
NGLs and non-conventional liquids are estimated to 4
have been produced by OPEC Member Countries and 2
non-OPEC DoC countries, respectively. 0
The 2025 forecast points toward a combined increase 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q* 3Q* 4Q* 1Q* 2Q* 3Q* 4Q*
of about 20 tb/d for an average of 8.3 mb/d. NGLs and 2023 2024 2025
non-conventional liquids production are projected to Non-OPEC DoC NGLs
grow by 0.1 mb/d to average 5.5 mb/d for OPEC OPEC NGLs
Member Countries. However, it is expected to drop by DoC NGLs
about 50 tb/d for non-OPEC DoC countries. Note: * 2Q24-4Q25 = Forecast. Source: OPEC.
Table 5 - 6: DoC NGLs + non-conventional liquids, mb/d

DoC NGLs and Change Change Change
non-coventional liquids 2023 23/22 2024 24/23 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025 25/24
OPEC 5.41 0.05 5.47 0.06 5.55 5.61 5.58 5.58 5.58 0.11
Non-OPEC DoC 2.77 0.20 2.83 0.06 2.78 2.76 2.66 2.76 2.74 -0.09
Total 8.18 0.25 8.30 0.12 8.33 8.37 8.24 8.34 8.32 0.02
Note: 2024-2025 = Forecast.
Source: OPEC.

World Oil Supply
DoC crude oil production

According to secondary sources, total OPEC-12 crude oil production averaged 26.63 mb/d in May 2024,
29 tb/d higher, m-o-m. Crude oil output increased mainly in Nigeria, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea, while
production in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Libya and Congo decreased.
At the same time, total non-OPEC DoC crude oil production averaged 14.29 mb/d in May 2024, 152 tb/d lower,
m-o-m. Crude oil output increased mainly in Mexico, while production in Russia and Kazakhstan decreased.
Table 5 - 7: DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d
Secondary Change
sources 2022 2023 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 May/Apr
Algeria 1,013 973 949 957 907 909 909 903 -6
Congo 261 261 259 251 246 250 267 256 -11
Equatorial Guinea 84 56 59 53 55 59 50 63 13
Gabon 195 203 202 216 214 222 203 220 17
IR Iran 2,554 2,859 3,005 3,154 3,177 3,207 3,219 3,226 7
Iraq 4,439 4,287 4,308 4,324 4,244 4,237 4,202 4,195 -7
Kuwait 2,704 2,595 2,560 2,552 2,431 2,430 2,433 2,418 -15
Libya 981 1,162 1,158 1,170 1,119 1,171 1,187 1,173 -14
Nigeria 1,210 1,314 1,279 1,381 1,414 1,378 1,345 1,419 74
Saudi Arabia 10,531 9,609 8,994 8,953 9,012 9,038 9,032 9,000 -32
UAE 3,066 2,950 2,912 2,906 2,927 2,924 2,928 2,935 7
Venezuela 684 749 767 774 816 822 825 822 -3
Total OPEC 27,722 27,018 26,452 26,690 26,562 26,646 26,600 26,629 29
Azerbaijan 560 503 496 487 477 480 480 478 -1
Bahrain 193 182 176 182 167 165 177 187 9
Brunei 75 72 70 77 80 78 74 77 3
Kazakhstan 1,489 1,597 1,529 1,606 1,613 1,612 1,573 1,511 -62
Malaysia 395 375 361 376 360 360 368 368 -1
Mexico 1,667 1,645 1,645 1,624 1,609 1,633 1,610 1,625 14
Oman 850 819 807 807 772 764 766 766 0
Russia 9,771 9,581 9,493 9,496 9,431 9,476 9,301 9,182 -119
Sudan 62 54 53 47 35 29 28 25 -3
South Sudan 144 146 151 153 109 71 67 75 8
Total Non-OPEC DoC 15,206 14,972 14,781 14,855 14,653 14,669 14,445 14,293 -152
Total DoC 42,927 41,990 41,233 41,545 41,215 41,315 41,045 40,922 -123
Notes: Totals may not add up due to independent rounding, given available secondary sources to date.
Source: OPEC.

World Oil Supply
OPEC crude oil production

OPEC crude oil production for May, as reported by OPEC Member Countries, is shown in the Table 5 – 8
below.
Table 5 - 8: OPEC crude oil production based on direct communication, tb/d

Change
Direct communication 2022 2023 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 May/Apr
Algeria 1,020 973 951 958 907 907 907 901 -6
Congo 262 271 269 259 252 254 259 264 5
Equatorial Guinea 81 55 58 53 53 60 60 62 1
Gabon 191 223 232 234 .. .. .. .. ..
IR Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Iraq 4,453 4,117 4,101 4,123 3,957 3,903 3,891 3,860 -31
Kuwait 2,707 2,590 2,548 2,548 2,413 2,413 2,413 2,413 0
Libya .. 1,189 1,187 1,191 1,149 1,236 1,218 .. ..
Nigeria 1,138 1,234 1,201 1,313 1,327 1,231 1,281 1,251 -30
Saudi Arabia 10,591 9,606 8,969 8,901 8,979 8,973 8,986 8,993 7
UAE 3,064 2,944 2,904 2,892 2,919 2,918 2,917 2,933 16
Venezuela 716 783 797 796 864 874 878 910 32
Total OPEC .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Notes: .. Not available. Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.
Source: OPEC.


In May, refinery margins eased further for the third consecutive month in all main trading hubs, as continued
recovery in refinery processing rates led to rising product stock builds. Gasoline was the biggest driver of
the weakness across the barrel in all regions, with ample availability amid intentionally heightened
production following the conclusion of the heavy maintenance period and the start of the summer season.
Softening economic incentives for East-to-West product flows due to weakening export margins and strong
gasoline imports from the Middle East weighed on Asian product markets. This weakness emerged despite
strengthening Asian naphtha and fuel oil crack spreads.
Global refinery intake increased 490 tb/d in May to average 80.5 mb/d, compared to 80.0 mb/d in the
previous month, and was 106 tb/d higher, y-o-y. Going forward, run rates are expected to remain elevated
while refiners cautiously balance current product fundamentals with the impending seasonal upturn in
product consumption, which should support oil markets in the coming months.
Refinery margins
US Gulf Coast (USGC) refining margins against Graph 6 - 1: Refining margins
WTI continued to trend downwards for the third US$/b
consecutive month and showed the largest m-o-m 40
decline compared to what was seen in other key
trading hubs. US refinery processing rates in May 30
climbed by 730 tb/d to 17.3 mb/d, a multi-year high, 20
reaching 2019 levels. Rising product inventories with
recovery in refinery runs led to losses all across the 10
barrel in the USGC with the exception of naphtha.
Total US motor gasoline inventories rose in May, 0
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
Dec 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
while the Department of Energy’s announcement to
release gasoline for summer from the nation's
Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve added to the
WTI (US Gulf) Brent (Rotterdam)
bearish market sentiment, positioning gasoline as the Oman (Singapore)
main source of weakness across the barrel. On the
Sources: Argus and OPEC.
positive side, naphtha showed significant margin
gains as higher propane prices prompted petrochemical operators to resort to light distillates as the preferred
feedstock. However, these gains were offset by the losses associated with all other key products. USGC
margins against WTI averaged $14.98/b in May, down by $2.82, m-o-m, and by $5.49, y-o-y. In the previous
month, USGC margins were $3.41 lower, y-o-y.
Refinery margins in Rotterdam against Brent eased to experience a mild loss and reach a four-month low,
with mixed performance across the barrel. The supply side pressure derived from higher product output
reflected on gasoil and much more distinctly on gasoline markets. According to Vortexa, East of Suez imports
of European residual fuel oil reached a 22-month high amid improved arbitrage economics. Although a solid
HSFO, naphtha and jet/kerosene upturn was registered, driven by supportive demand-side dynamics, this
combined gain was insufficient to compensate for gasoline and gasoil weakness. Increased jet fuel demand
as a consequence of a pick-up in air travel and sustained fuel oil cooling requirements in the East are expected
to support product markets in Rotterdam in the near term.
Refinery throughput in Europe rose in May, according to preliminary data, and was 130 tb/d higher, m-o-m,
averaging 9.57 mb/d. Refinery margins against Brent in Europe averaged $12.28/b in May, which is 30ȼ lower,
m-o-m, but 73ȼ higher, y-o-y.
Singapore's refining margins against Oman moved downward alongside that of its Western counterparts
as the region remained well supplied, reflecting softening East-to-West export margins, strong gasoline inflows
from the Middle East, and high regional refinery runs. In China, diesel exports to trading hubs within the region
increased significantly; however, in the immediate near term, softening export margins and strong diesel
demand from the farming sector could keep Chinese diesel exports under pressure.
In May, combined refinery intakes for Japan, China, India, Singapore and South Korea experienced a 150 tb/d
increase, m-o-m, averaging 27.10 mb/d, according to preliminary data. Refinery margins against Oman in Asia
experienced a 73ȼ decline, m-o-m, to average $2.95/b, which was $1.08 lower, y-o-y.

Refinery operations
US refinery utilization rates showed a notable rise Graph 6 - 2: Refinery utilization rates
to an average of 92.49%, corresponding to a %
throughput of 17.04 mb/d. This represents a rise of 100
3.8 pp and 730 tb/d relative to April. Compared with
the previous year, the May refinery utilization rate 90
was up by 0.8 pp, with throughput showing a 120 tb/d
drop. 80
European refinery utilization averaged 81.43% in 70

May, corresponding to a throughput of 9.57 mb/d.
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
This represents a rise of 1.1 pp or 130 tb/d, m-o-m.
On a yearly basis, the utilization rate was up by
1.9 pp, and throughput was 24 tb/d lower. US EU-14 Selected Asia*
plus UK
In Selected Asia – Japan, China, India, Singapore and Norway
Note: * China, India, Japan, Singapore and South Korea.
and South Korea – refinery utilization rates increased Sources: Argus, EIA, Euroilstock, PAJ and OPEC.
marginally to average 95.06% in May, corresponding
to a throughput of 27.10 mb/d. Compared with the previous month, utilization rates were up by 0.5 pp, and
throughput was higher by 150 tb/d. Relative to the previous year, utilization rates were 1.9 pp higher, and
throughput was 248 tb/d lower.
Table 6 - 1: Refinery operations in selected OECD countries
Refinery throughput, mb/d Refinery utilization, %
Change Change
Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 May/Apr Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 May/Apr
US 16.29 16.32 17.04 0.73 88.90 88.64 92.49 3.8 pp
Euro-14, plus UK and
Norway 9.07 9.45 9.57 0.13 77.17 80.37 81.43 1.1 pp
France 0.80 0.82 0.86 0.04 69.08 70.81 74.35 3.5 pp
Germany 1.39 1.61 1.67 0.06 67.51 78.60 81.51 2.9 pp
Italy 1.18 1.26 1.28 0.02 61.89 66.11 67.19 1.1 pp
UK 0.97 0.95 0.99 0.04 82.69 80.90 84.02 3.1 pp
Selected Asia* 27.74 26.95 27.10 0.15 97.30 94.55 95.06 0.5 pp
Note: * Includes Japan, China, India, Singapore and South Korea.
Sources: Argus Media, EIA, Euroilstock, NBS, PAJ and OPEC.

Table 6 - 2: Refinery crude throughput, mb/d

Refinery crude throughput 2021 2022 2023 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24
OECD Americas 17.79 18.68 18.71 19.05 19.27 18.47 18.17 19.10
of which US 15.66 16.48 16.50 16.75 17.02 16.47 15.78 16.90
OECD Europe 10.93 11.44 11.38 11.11 11.72 11.40 11.24 11.34
of which:
France 0.69 0.84 0.93 0.87 1.06 0.95 0.83 0.86
Germany 1.72 1.83 1.62 1.59 1.67 1.59 1.61 1.63
Italy 1.23 1.32 1.30 1.26 1.32 1.32 1.26 1.27
UK 0.92 1.04 0.97 1.01 0.96 0.89 0.97 1.00
OECD Asia Pacific 5.79 6.10 5.88 5.68 5.74 5.94 5.95 5.72
of which Japan 2.49 2.71 2.56 2.38 2.54 2.54 2.55 2.63
Total OECD 34.51 36.23 35.97 35.84 36.73 35.81 35.36 36.15
Latin America 3.50 3.37 3.48 3.51 3.45 3.53 3.40 3.43
Middle East 6.80 7.28 7.61 7.62 7.92 7.43 7.80 7.89
Africa 1.77 1.73 1.70 1.71 1.69 1.70 1.90 2.04
India 4.73 5.00 5.18 5.22 5.03 5.10 5.30 5.28
China 14.07 13.49 14.78 14.78 15.19 14.57 14.64 14.65
Other Asia 4.72 4.89 5.00 5.15 4.88 5.12 5.13 5.18
Russia 5.61 5.46 5.50 5.40 5.49 5.43 5.33 5.34
Other Eurasia 1.23 1.15 1.14 1.09 1.05 1.19 1.16 1.14
Other Europe 0.41 0.48 0.45 0.41 0.50 0.45 0.44 0.49
Total Non-OECD 42.85 42.85 44.83 44.89 45.20 44.50 45.10 45.44
Total world 77.36 79.08 80.80 80.73 81.93 80.31 80.46 81.59
Sources: AFREC, APEC, EIA, IEA, Euroilstock, PAJ, Ministry data, including Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation,
Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas of India, OPEC and JODI.
Product markets
US market
The USGC gasoline crack spread against WTI Graph 6 - 3: US Gulf crack spread vs. WTI
reversed to show a solid decline following five US$/b
consecutive months of gains. The fuel’s domestic 60
demand remained modest despite the onset of the
40
driving season. Moreover, total US gasoline
inventories ended May higher, m-o-m, and remained 20
significantly higher, y-o-y. Expectations of a potential
boost in mobility around Memorial Day in the US failed 0
to provide sufficient support to US gasoline crack
spreads despite limited stock declines around the -20
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
second and third weeks of the month. Going forward,

domestic gasoline consumption levels are set to
improve, along with the strong upside potential in road Premium gasoline Jet/Kerosene
transportation activity. The USGC gasoline crack Diesel Fuel oil
spread lost $3.89, m-o-m, to average $37.29/b in May
and was $4.23 lower, y-o-y.
The USGC jet/kerosene crack spread against WTI continued to trend downwards for a third consecutive
month as the market continued to factor in a lengthening balance as a result of higher refinery output and
subdued demand. Going forward, air travel is expected to improve with rising mobility over the summer months.
Jet fuel/kerosene wholesale prices saw a $9.05/b decrease, m-o-m, to average $100.77/b. The USGC
jet/kerosene crack spread lost $3.20, m-o-m, to average $22.04/b in May but was $1.59 higher, y-o-y.

The USGC gasoil crack spreads against WTI moved deeper into negative territory, although with a more
tempered downward momentum when compared to the sharp downturn recorded in the previous months.
An expanded global gasoil balance, y-o-y, resulting from a growing supply-demand mismatch amid weak
demand from the US industrial sector and higher refinery output, contributed to the weakness. Gasoil
wholesale prices averaged $71.80/b in May, down $7.96 compared to April. The US gasoil crack spread
against WTI averaged minus $6.93/b, down $2.11, m-o-m, but $7.15/b higher, y-o-y.
The USGC fuel oil crack spread against WTI showed a slight loss following four consecutive months of
gains. High sulphur fuel oil exports from the US to Europe declined continually from the record high seen in
March. According to Kpler, US-to-Europe HSFO exports reached a record high of 50 tb/d in March, followed
by 40 tb/d in April and 20 tb/d in May, with the arbitrage window closing after USGC and NWE FOB prices
reached parity at the beginning of May. Moreover, according to the same source, Middle East high sulphur
residual fuel exports to the US retreated in May after a brief pick-up in April, while more volumes were kept
within the East of Suez market, given the stronger HSFO cracks found there. Going forward, imports from the
Middle East are expected to remain under pressure leading to a contracting HSFO availability in the US, amid
lower post-spring maintenance of domestic fuel oil production. This, amid a potential upside for US fuel-to-
gasoline conversion margins in the coming months, along with projections of continued robust utility demand
in the Middle East and Asia over the summer season, should support HSFO cracks moving forward. In May,
the US fuel oil crack spread against WTI lost 65ȼ, m-o-m, to average minus $3.09/b and was $6.23 higher,
y-o-y.
European market
The gasoline crack spread in Rotterdam against Brent moved lower, extending the downward trend that
had started in the previous month, to reach the lowest value recorded since December 2022. Lower export
volumes to the US stemming from challenging spot arbitrage economics weighed on European gasoline
markets despite firm exports to Nigeria. Octane prices receded due to the high volumes purchased in the two
previous months. Nevertheless, octane prices remained relatively high given the historical trends, which,
despite a m-o-m loss, most likely kept gasoline prices sustained. In the immediate near term, the gasoline
crack spread is expected to face challenges as the impact of rising gasoline production counterbalances
growing demand-side support. However, strengthening demand amid the expectation of a pick-up in road
transport activities well into the summer months is expected to eventually outweigh the supply-side factors and
provide support to the gasoline crack spread performance as we move deeper into the peak driving and
travelling season. The gasoline crack spread against Brent averaged $27.92/b, which was $8.58 lower,
m-o-m, and $19.11 lower, y-o-y.
In May, the jet/kerosene crack spread demonstrated a solid gain on the back of demand-side support,
following three consecutive months of declines. Jet/kerosene fundamentals showed signs of improvement on
the back of improving requirements from the aviation sector. Going forward, European jet/kerosene demand
is expected to see upward pressure as consumption levels from the aviation sector continue to pick up for the
summer months. However, product crack spreads could initially remain low and are expected to firm up once
demand catches up and exerts downward pressure on inventory levels. The Rotterdam jet/kerosene crack
spread against Brent averaged $20.78/b, down $2.60, m-o-m, but was $5.14 higher, y-o-y.
The gasoil 10 ppm crack spread in Rotterdam Graph 6 - 4: Rotterdam crack spreads vs. Brent
declined slightly due to lengthening global balances US$/b
and softening export requirements. Weak diesel 60
demand from the manufacturing sector in Europe, the
end of the heavy refinery maintenance season, upside 40
potential for higher production levels from Nigeria’s 20
Dangote refinery amid strong flows from the Middle
East, and new supplies from the Mexican Olmeca 0
refinery will likely exert pressure on NWE gasoil
performance in the near-term. The gasoil crack -20
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
spread against Brent averaged $18.86/b, down 40ȼ,

m-o-m, but up $3.04, y-o-y.
Premium gasoline Jet/Kerosene
At the bottom of the barrel, fuel oil 1.0% crack Gasoil Fuel oil 1.0% s
spreads in Rotterdam against Brent moved
upwards due to improved export demand. Accordingly
to Vortexa, East of Suez imports of European residual fuel oil reached a 22-month high in May amid improved
arbitrage economics, with HSFO East-to-West spreads outperforming that of VLSFO. The contracting
availability in the region amid lower imports from the US contributed to stronger fundamentals and

strengthening fuel oil margins. In terms of prices, fuel oil 1.0% declined $5.00, m-o-m, to $73.14/b, while the
crack spread averaged minus $8.68/b in May, representing a $3.07 m-o-m rise, but a slight 72ȼ y-o-y decline.
Asian market
The Southeast Asian gasoline 92 crack spreads Graph 6 - 5: Singapore crack spreads vs. Dubai
experienced a solid loss, registering the most US$/b
significantly negative performance across the barrel, 40
followed by gasoil and jet/kerosene. Elevated 30
gasoline volume inflows from the Middle East amid 20
firm flows from Chinese refiners led to gasoline 10
weakness. Consequently, the products’ margin 0
dropped to a seven-month low, averaging $6.99/b. -10
-20
This was down $5.96, m-o-m, and $3.57, y-o-y.
-30
Asian naphtha crack spreads regained some
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
ground to partially recover from the notable loss
registered in the previous month. Supportive demand
from Northeast Asia and higher propane prices Premium gasoline Jet/Kerosene
incentivized petrochemical operators to resort to Gasoil Fuel oil
naphtha as the preferred feedstock, although overall Sources: Argus and OPEC.
demand for chemical production remained lacklustre. In May, naphtha was the second strongest product
across the barrel in Singapore, following high-sulphur fuel oil. The Singapore naphtha crack spread against
Dubai averaged minus $11.82/b, which is $1.72 higher, m-o-m, and $1.06 higher, y-o-y.
In the middle of the barrel, the jet/kerosene crack spreads declined, affected by supply-side pressures, while
the region remained well supplied despite healthy jet fuel requirements from Indonesia. Additionally, elevated
refinery throughput contributed to additional jet/kerosene availability, weighing on the products’ performance.
Although the summer season demand boost in jet/kerosene showed signs of improvement in recent months,
it is so far negligible and insufficient to provide a significant arbitrage opening for East-to-West flows. The
Singapore jet/kerosene crack spread against Dubai averaged $11.34/b, down $2.30, m-o-m, and $2.12 y-o-y.
The Singapore gasoil crack spread declined for the third consecutive month in May to settle at a thirty-month
low. Gasoil production in the region remained strong as Indian refiners practised high run rates driven by strong
domestic demand and acquisitions of cheaper crude. In addition, China increased its gasoil exports, m-o-m,
while South Korea's gasoil exports stayed robust. Going forward, the start of the monsoon season is expected
to further boost gasoil production and keep key Asian trading hubs well supplied, although an expected rise in
Australian product (including diesel) stockpiling starting the first of July may somewhat limit the gasoil surplus.
The Singapore gasoil crack spread against Dubai averaged $11.56/b, down $2.82/b, m-o-m, and $1.82/b,
y-o-y.
The Singapore fuel oil 3.5% crack spread showed a massive 51% improvement in May on the back of rising
residual fuel requirements for cooling in the region. According to Kpler, firm HSFO demand for bunkering and
refining amid rising seasonal usage in power generation in East of Suez has induced supply tightness and has
led to depleted inventories. Singapore's inland inventories fell to 15.8 mb – the lowest number since October
2018. Fujairah’s fuel oil stocks declined to 9.2 mb, about 2.4 mb and 1.6 mb below the 2023 and 2022 seasonal
levels, respectively. Singapore floating storage also saw 400 thousand tonnes of draws of HSFO and high
sulphur straight run fuel oil (HSSR) in May. Going forward, fuel oil markets in Asia should remain well supported
on the back of continuously strong fuel oil demand in power generation. Singapore's high sulphur fuel oil crack
spread against Dubai averaged minus $6.09/b, up $6.33, m-o-m, and $3.06, y-o-y.

Table 6 - 3: Short-term prospects for product markets and refinery operations

Time
Event Observations Asia Europe US
frame
Intense Jun 2024– The downward risk for gasoil  Pressure  Pressure  Pressure
Monsoon Sep 2024 demand from the agricultural sector on gasoil on gasoil on gasoil
season for farming could weigh on domestic markets markets markets
(flooding) consumption and free up volumes
for exports, particularly in Asia.
Australian fuel From The Minimum Stockholding  Support  Support -
stockpiling 1 Jul 2024 Obligation (MSO) will deliver a diesel crack diesel crack
mandates major increase in diesel spreads spreads
stockholdings.
Summer Jun 2024– Over the summer months, transport  Support  Support  Support
season Sep 2024 product crack spreads, particularly product product product
for gasoline, jet/kerosene and fuel markets markets markets
oil, are expected to increase on the
back of higher mobility.
Forecasts of an Jun 2024– Predictions of increased storm  Upward  Upward  Upward
active Nov 2024 activity in 2024 represent a threat to pressure on pressure on pressure on
hurricane refining operations, particularly in light product product
season the USGC. This could lead to distillates crack crack
product supply disruptions exerting crack spreads spreads
upward pressure on fuel prices. spreads
Softening East Jun 2024 Product pull towards the Atlantic  Pressure  Pressure  Pressure
to West export basin is under pressure as refinery on product on product on product
margins runs are recovering and some markets markets markets
refiners in Asia enter maintenance.
However, this trend is expected to
subside starting from July as fuel
requirements in the Atlantic basin
increase and inventories experience
increased pressure.
Source: OPEC.

Table 6 - 4: Refined product prices, US$/b

Change Annual avg. Year-to-date
Apr 24 May 24 May/Apr 2023 2024
US Gulf (Cargoes FOB)
Naphtha* 77.36 74.03 -3.33 72.51 76.27
Premium gasoline (unleaded 93) 125.76 116.02 -9.74 117.23 114.95
Regular gasoline (unleaded 87) 109.59 100.76 -8.83 104.59 101.51
Jet/Kerosene 109.82 100.77 -9.05 113.51 108.49
Gasoil (0.2% S) 79.76 71.80 -7.96 78.57 79.91
Fuel oil (3.0% S) 73.85 72.79 -1.06 68.14 69.72
Rotterdam (Barges FoB)
Naphtha 76.24 73.05 -3.19 71.06 74.33
Jet/Kerosene 108.07 102.60 -5.47 111.74 109.02
Gasoil/Diesel (10 ppm) 109.15 100.68 -8.47 111.19 109.16
Fuel oil (1.0% S) 78.14 73.14 -5.00 74.29 75.06
Fuel oil (3.5% S) 75.65 73.83 -1.82 72.79 72.02
Mediterranean (Cargoes FOB)
Naphtha 73.53 70.21 -3.32 68.45 71.31
Premium gasoline** 111.52 102.77 -8.75 101.80 102.61
Jet/Kerosene 103.99 98.54 -5.45 107.77 104.68
Diesel 107.43 99.41 -8.02 109.08 107.12
Fuel oil (1.0% S) 83.05 77.64 -5.41 78.85 80.32
Fuel oil (3.5% S) 74.80 69.94 -4.86 66.47 69.24
Singapore (Cargoes FOB)
Naphtha 75.58 72.29 -3.29 69.53 73.97
Regular gasoline (unleaded 92) 102.07 91.10 -10.97 94.00 95.40
Jet/Kerosene 102.76 95.45 -7.31 104.68 101.12
Gasoil/Diesel (50 ppm) 104.29 96.97 -7.32 105.99 102.65
Fuel oil (180 cst) 101.36 94.13 -7.23 102.35 100.33
Fuel oil (380 cst 3.5% S) 76.70 78.02 1.32 69.23 71.77
Note: * Barges. ** Cost, insurance and freight (CIF).

Tanker Market
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates showed mixed movement in May, with VLCCs and Aframax generally improving
while Suezmax experienced a decline, m-o-m.
VLCC spot freight rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose by 10%, m-o-m, while the West Africa-to-
East route rose by 11%. Aframax rates around the Mediterranean rose by 10% in May, while the Indonesia-
to-East route was up 6%. In contrast, Suezmax spot freight rates declined, dropping by 8%, m-o-m, on the
US Gulf Coast (USGC)-to-Europe route.
Rates for clean tankers were higher across all monitored routes in May, with East of Suez rates up by 10%
and West of Suez rates gaining 3%.
Spot fixtures
Global spot fixtures increased in May, with fixtures increasing by almost 3.5 mb/d, or about 38%, m-o-m, to
average 12.9 mb/d. However, compared with May 2023, global spot fixtures were down by 0.8 mb/d, or about 6%.
OPEC spot fixtures averaged just under 9 mb/d in May, representing an increase of 2.4 mb/d, or 36%.
Compared with the same month last year, fixtures declined 0.3 mb/d, or 4%.
Middle East-to-East fixtures rose 1.3 mb/d, or almost 29%, to average 5.7 mb/d. Compared with the same
month in 2023, fixtures on the Middle East-to-East route were about 1.0 mb/d, or over 22%, higher.
Spot fixtures on the Middle East-to-West route increased by 0.1 mb/d, or about 15%, m-o-m, to average
0.8 mb/d. However, compared to the same month last year, fixtures were down 0.5 mb/d, or 39%, y-o-y.
Fixtures on routes outside the Middle East rose 1.0 mb/d, or 66%, m-o-m, to average 2.6 mb/d. Compared
with the same month of 2023, fixtures were 0.9 mb/d, or 26%, lower.
Table 7 - 1: Spot fixtures, mb/d
Change
Spot fixtures Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 May 24/Apr 24
All areas 14.2 9.4 12.9 3.5
OPEC 10.2 6.6 9.0 2.4
Middle East/East 6.0 4.4 5.7 1.3
Middle East/West 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.1
Outside Middle East 3.0 1.6 2.6 1.0
Sources: Oil Movements and OPEC.
Sailings and arrivals

OPEC sailings declined by 0.4 mb/d, or about 2%, m-o-m, to average 20.7 mb/d in May. Compared with the
same month in 2023, OPEC sailings declined 0.6 mb/d, or 3%. Middle East sailings declined by 1.6 mb/d, or
almost 9%, m-o-m, to average 16.4 mb/d in May. Y-o-y sailings from the region were down 1.4 mb/d, or 8%.
Table 7 - 2: Tanker sailings and arrivals, mb/d
Change
Sailings Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 May 24/Apr 24
OPEC 21.0 21.2 20.7 -0.4
Middle East 17.1 17.9 16.4 -1.6
Arrivals
North America 8.8 9.3 9.4 0.1
Europe 12.6 12.4 12.8 0.3
Far East 16.3 16.7 17.2 0.4
West Asia 8.7 9.3 8.9 -0.4
Sources: Oil Movements and OPEC.

Tanker Market
Crude arrivals increased further in all monitored regions, except West Asia. North American arrivals rose
0.1 mb/d, or over 1%, to average 9.4 mb/d. Compared with May 2023, North American arrivals were about
0.4 mb/d, or close to 4%, higher. Arrivals to Europe increased by 0.3 mb/d, or about 3%, to average
12.8 mb/d. Compared with the same month of 2023, arrivals to Europe were 1.0 mb/d, or 9%, higher.
Far East arrivals rose by 0.4 mb/d, or about 3%, m-o-m, to average 17.2 mb/d in May. Y-o-y arrivals in the
region were up by almost 2.5 mb/d, or over 17%. In contrast to the other regions, arrivals in West Asia
declined, m-o-m, to average 8.9 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.4 mb/d, or about 5%, in May. However,
compared to the same month last year, arrivals in the region increased by about 1 mb/d, or 12%.
Dirty tanker freight rates

Very large crude carriers
VLCC spot rates strengthened in May amid an improving performance both East and West of Suez. On
average, VLCC spot freight rates rose 9%, m-o-m. Compared with the same month of 2023, VLCC rates were
36% higher.
On the Middle East-to-East route, rates increased by 10%, m-o-m, to average WS68 points. This represents
a y-o-y gain of 42%. Rates on the Middle East-to-West route rose 5%, m-o-m, in May to average WS44 points.
Compared with the same month in 2023, rates on the route were 22% higher.
West Africa-to-East spot rates increased 11%, m-o-m, to average WS70 points in May. Compared with the
same month of 2023, rates were 43% higher.
Table 7 - 3: Dirty VLCC spot tanker freight rates, Worldscale (WS)
Size Change
VLCC 1,000 DWT Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 May 24/Apr 24
Middle East/East 230-280 70 62 68 6
Middle East/West 270-285 47 42 44 2
West Africa/East 260 71 63 70 7
Suezmax
In contrast to the other major tanker classes, Suezmax spot freight rates declined in May, falling 5%,
m-o-m. They fell 11% compared with the same month of 2023.
On the West Africa-to-USGC route, spot freight rates in May averaged WS102, representing a decline of 4%,
m-o-m. Compared with the same month of 2023, spot rates were also 4% lower.
Rates on the USGC-to-Europe route experienced an even stronger decline, falling 8%, m-o-m, to average
WS84 points. Compared with the same month of 2023, they were 19% lower.
Table 7 - 4: Dirty Suezmax spot tanker freight rates, WS
Size Change
Suezmax 1,000 DWT Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 May 24/Apr 24
West Africa/US Gulf Coast 130-135 99 106 102 -4
US Gulf Coast/ Europe 150 88 91 84 -7
Aframax
Aframax spot freight rates were higher on all monitored routes, except the Caribbean-to-US East Coast
(USEC). On average, rates rose 5%, m-o-m, but were 4% lower than in the same month of the previous year,
when trade disruptions pressured Aframax rates in particular.
Rates on the Indonesia-to-East route rose 6%, m-o-m, to average WS167 points in May. Compared with the
same month of 2023, rates were 8% higher.

Tanker Market
Table 7 - 5: Dirty Aframax spot tanker freight rates, WS

Size Change
Aframax 1,000 DWT Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 May 24/Apr 24
Indonesia/East 80-85 167 158 167 9
Caribbean/US East Coast 80-85 154 170 157 -13
Mediterranean/Mediterranean 80-85 159 183 202 19
Mediterranean/Northwest Europe 80-85 157 176 190 14
In contrast, spot rates on the Caribbean-to-USEC route declined 8%, m-o-m, to average WS157 points in
May. Rates decreased 39% compared with the same month of 2023.
Cross-Med spot freight rates gained 10%, m-o-m, to average WS202 points. This represents a 13%
y-o-y increase. Rates on the Mediterranean-to-Northwest Europe (NWE) route rose 8%, m-o-m, to average
WS190 points. Compared with the same month of 2023, rates were up 21%.
Graph 7 - 1: Crude oil spot tanker freight rates, Graph 7 - 2: Products spot tanker freight rates,
monthly average monthly average
Worldscale Worldscale
250 350
200
150 250
100
150
50
0 50
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Middle East/East (VLCC) Middle East/Far East
West Africa/USGC (Suezmax) Mediterranean/Mediterranean
Mediterranean/Northwest Europe (Aframax) Northwest Europe/USEC
Sources: Argus and OPEC. Sources: Argus and OPEC.
Clean tanker freight rates

Clean spot freight rates increased, supported by gains in both the East and West of Suez. East of Suez rates
increased 10%, m-o-m, while West of Suez rates rose 3%. As a result, clean spot rates were 6% higher on
average.
Table 7 - 6: Clean spot tanker freight rates, WS
Size Change
East of Suez 1,000 DWT Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 May 24/Apr 24
Middle East/East 30-35 246 225 252 27
Singapore/East 30-35 280 252 273 21
West of Suez
Northwest Europe/US East Coast 33-37 207 180 187 7
Mediterranean/Mediterranean 30-35 324 249 255 6
Mediterranean/Northwest Europe 30-35 334 259 265 6
Rates on the Middle East-to-East route increased 12%, m-o-m, to average WS252 points in May. Compared
with the same month in 2023, rates were 48% higher. Clean spot freight rates on the Singapore-to-East route
rose 8%, m-o-m, to average WS273 points. This represents a 16% gain compared with the same month of
2023.
Spot freight rates on the NWE-to-USEC route were 4% higher, m-o-m, to average WS187 points.
This represents a 23% increase compared with May 2023.
Rates around the Mediterranean experienced relatively smaller relative gains, with the Cross-Med up 2%,
m-o-m, to average WS255 points, and rates on the Med-to-NWE route increasing 2%, m-o-m, to average
WS265 points. When compared with the same month of 2023, rates were over 72% higher on both routes.


US crude imports rose to a six-month high in May, averaging almost 6.8 mb/d, according to preliminary
data. US crude exports also increased in May to average 4.4 mb/d, representing a gain of over 15%,
y-o-y. Product imports dropped by 2% to average 2.1 mb/d, while product exports also fell by about 2% to
average 6.5 mb/d, albeit an 11% gain, y-o-y.
The latest full data for China shows April crude imports witnessing a seasonal decline of almost 6%, to
average 10.9 mb/d, ahead of peak maintenance. Product imports reached a record high of 2.5 mb/d, driven
by higher inflows of fuel oil. Preliminary data for May shows crude imports up about 0.2 mb/d to average
11.1 mb/d.
India’s crude imports in April hit a two-year high of 5.2 mb/d, ahead of national elections, which supported
transportation activities. Product imports reached a six-month high of just under 1.3 mb/d.
Japan's crude imports partly recovered from a weak performance in the 1Q24, averaging 2.6 mb/d in April.
Product imports picked up 6% m-o-m, supported by gains across most major products.
Preliminary estimates indicate OECD Europe crude imports were slightly lower in May, as higher inflows
from North America were outpaced by declines from other key regions.
US
Preliminary data shows that US crude imports averaged 6.8 mb/d in May, representing an increase of about
0.2 mb/d, or over 2%, m-o-m. Compared with the same month last year, crude imports were up 0.3 mb/d, or over
4%.
In terms of import sources, the latest official US Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data shows crude
imports from Canada averaging around 4.1 mb/d in February, representing a share of 63%. Imports from Mexico
averaged 0.5 mb/d, or over 8%, while imports from Saudi Arabia averaged 0.4 mb/d, or close to 4%.
Graph 8 - 1: US imports of crude and products Graph 8 - 2: US exports of crude and products
mb/d mb/d mb/d mb/d
2.5 7.5 8 6
2.0 6
6.5 4
1.5
4
1.0 5.5 2
2
0.5
0.0 4.5 0 0
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Mar 24
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
May 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Gasoline Distillate fuel oil Propane Distillate fuel oil

Residual fuel oil Jet fuel/kerosene Residual fuel oil Gasoline
Propane Others Jet fuel/kerosene Others
Crude (RHS) Crude (RHS)
Sources: EIA and OPEC. Sources: EIA and OPEC.
According to preliminary data, US crude exports recovered in May to average 4.4 mb/d, This represents an
increase of about 0.1 mb/d, or about 2%, m-o-m. Crude outflows were up 0.6 mb/d, or over 15%, compared to
the same month last year.
As a result, US net crude imports averaged close to 2.4 mb/d in May, up from 2.3 mb/d in the previous month.
The level was 2.7 mb/d in the same month last year.
On the products side, imports declined 43 tb/d, or 2%, m-o-m, to average 2.0 mb/d. Declines were driven by
naphtha, which fell from the strong level seen in the previous month. This outweighed stronger outflows of
gasoline and jet fuel. Compared with the same month of 2023, product inflows were down by around 19 tb/d,
or less than 1%.

According to preliminary data, product exports fell 0.2 mb/d, or over 2%, to average 6.5 mb/d. Within
products, losses were driven by distillate fuels, jets and other products, which offset gains in
propane/propylene. Compared with the same month last year, product exports were 0.6 mb/d, or almost 11%,
higher.
As a result, net product exports averaged 4.4 mb/d in May, compared with 4.5 mb/d in April and 3.8 mb/d in
the same month last year.
Table 8 - 1: US crude and product net imports, mb/d
Change
US Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 May 24/Apr 24
Crude oil 1.88 2.33 2.38 0.05
Total products -4.55 -4.54 -4.43 0.11
Total crude and products -2.66 -2.21 -2.05 0.15
Looking ahead, the summer driving season in the northern hemisphere should support crude imports in the
near term; crude exports are likely to remain above the levels seen in the previous years.
China
China's crude imports averaged 10.9 mb/d in April, representing a decline of 671 tb/d, or about 6%, m-o-m.
Compared with April 2023, China's crude imports were up by 613 tb/d, or about 6%. Preliminary data for May
shows crude imports up about 0.2 mb/d to average 11.1 mb/d, as refiners look towards a return from
maintenance, although margins remain soft.
Graph 8 - 3: China's import of crude and Graph 8 - 4: China's export of total products
total products
mb/d mb/d mb/d
3.0 14 2.0
2.5
2.0 12 1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0 10
0.5 0.5
0.0 8
0.0
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
LPG Fuel oil

Naphtha Jet fuel Gasoil Gasoline Jet fuel Fuel oil
Gasoil Gasoline
Others Crude (RHS) LPG Naphtha Others
Sources: China OGP and OPEC. Sources: China OGP and OPEC.
In terms of crude imports by source, Russia remained in the top spot in April with a share of 21%, up from
around 20% in March. Saudi Arabia was second with just over 14%, Iraq was third with more than 12% and
Malaysia was fourth with 9%.
Product imports, including LPG, reached a new record high in April of 2.5 mb/d. This represents an increase
of 199 tb/d, or over 8%. Gains were driven by fuel oil, other products and naphtha. Compared to the same
period in 2023, product imports increased 332 tb/d, or about 15%. Preliminary May data shows imports sharply
lower as independent refiners cut back feedstock purchases.
Product exports averaged 1.2 mb/d in April, representing a decline of 351 tb/d, or around 23%, m-o-m.
Gasoline and diesel oil led the declines, which were partly offset by higher outflows of fuel oil. Compared to
the same period in 2023, product exports were up by 175 tb/d, or 18%. Customs data shows exports increasing
in May following the release of product export quotas.

Table 8 - 2: China's crude and product net imports, mb/d

Change
China Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 Apr 24/Mar 24
Crude oil 11.14 11.57 10.85 -0.72
Total products 0.71 0.83 1.38 0.55
Total crude and products 11.86 12.40 12.23 -0.17
Sources: China OGP and OPEC.
Net product imports averaged 1.4 mb/d in April, compared to 834 tb/d in March and 1.2 mb/d in April 2023.
India
India's crude imports in April rose 345 tb/d, or 7%, m-o-m, to average 5.2 mb/d. Compared with the same
period last year, crude imports saw similar gains, rising 342 tb/d or 7%. Crude inflows were supported by
increased activities ahead of national elections which supported transportation demand.
In terms of crude imports by source, Kpler data shows Russia had a share of 41% of India’s total April crude
imports, up from 34% the month before, followed by Iraq with 21% and Saudi Arabia with 12%.
Graph 8 - 5: India's imports of crude and products Graph 8 - 6: India's exports of products
mb/d mb/d mb/d
1.5 6 2.0
1.0 4 1.5
1.0
0.5 2
0.5
0.0 0
0.0
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
LPG Fuel oil
Gasoil Gasoline Gasoil Gasoline Naphtha
Naphtha Kerosene
Others Crude (RHS) Jet fuel Fuel oil Others
Sources: PPAC and OPEC. Sources: PPAC and OPEC.
For product imports, inflows increased by 172 tb/d, or almost 16%, m-o-m, to average 1.3 mb/d in April,
representing a six-month high. LPG led the gains, followed by other products and fuel oil. Y-o-y, product inflows
were up by 388 tb/d, or over 45%.
Product exports in April fell 175 tb/d, or over 12%, m-o-m, to stand at 1.2 mb/d. All major products contributed
to the decline, except kerosene which saw a minor build. Compared to the same month of 2023, product
outflows from India were up by 99 tb/d, or close to 9%.
As a result, India became a net product importer in April for the first time in six months. Net product imports
averaged 22 tb/d in April, compared to net product exports of 324 tb/d the month before and 266 tb/d in the
same month last year.
Table 8 - 3: India's crude and product net imports, mb/d
Change
India Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 Apr 24/Mar 24
Crude oil 4.55 4.89 5.23 0.35
Total products -0.17 -0.32 0.02 0.35
Total crude and products 4.37 4.56 5.25 0.69
India data table does not include information for crude import and product export by Reliance Industries.
Sources: PPAC and OPEC.
Looking ahead, crude imports are likely to have remained elevated in May in the run-up to the national
election. Similarly, product imports are seen higher, amid increased inflows of diesel.

Japan
Japan's crude imports in April rose 228 tb/d, or almost 10%, m-o-m, to average 2.6 mb/d. When compared
to the same period last year, crude imports were down by 247 tb/d, or about 9%.
In terms of crude imports by source, the United Arab Emirates held the highest share in April with over 45%.
Saudi Arabia was second with just under 40%, followed by Kuwait with 6%.
Product imports, including LPG, rose 47 tb/d, or about 6%, m-o-m, to average 911 tb/d in April. Gains were
driven by most major products, led by naphtha, LPG and gasoline. Compared with April 2023, product inflows
slipped 15 tb/d, or about 2%.
Product exports, including LPG, fell in April to average 394 tb/d. They were down by 177 tb/d, or 31%,
m-o-m. Losses were shared by gasoil, fuel oil and gasoline, offset by gains in jet fuel and kerosene. Compared
to the same month last year, product exports in April increased 16 tb/d, or over 4%.
Graph 8 - 7: Japan's imports of crude and products Graph 8 - 8: Japan's exports of products
mb/d mb/d mb/d
1.5 4 0.7
3 0.6
1.0 0.5
2 0.4
0.5 0.3
1
0.2
0.0 0
0.1
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
0.0
Mar 24
Feb 24
Nov 23
Dec 23
Aug 23
Sep 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Apr 24
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Naphtha LPG
Fuel oil Others
Crude oil (RHS) Jet fuel Gasoil Fuel oil Others
Sources: METI and OPEC. Sources: METI and OPEC.
Consequently, Japan's net product imports, including LPG, averaged 517 tb/d in April. This compares with
293 tb/d the month before and 548 tb/d in April 2023.
Table 8 - 4: Japan's crude and product net imports, mb/d
Change
Japan Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 Apr 24/Mar 24
Crude oil 2.45 2.40 2.62 0.23
Total products 0.40 0.29 0.52 0.22
Sources: METI and OPEC.
Looking ahead, crude imports in May are likely to edge lower, m-o-m, while product imports are expected to
decline on lower inflows of LPG, although naphtha is seen to hold up.
OECD Europe
The latest official data for OECD Europe shows that crude imports increased in February, adding 140 tb/d,
m-o-m, or about 2%, to average 8.3 mb/d. Compared with the same month in 2023, crude imports were down
by 183 tb/d, or about 2%.
In terms of import sources to the region, the US provided the most in February, with about 2.0 mb/d.
Kazakhstan was second with 1.0 mb/d, followed by Nigeria with around 0.7 mb/d.
Crude exports averaged 36 tb/d in February, representing a decline of 29 tb/d from the previous month.
Compared to the same month of 2023, crude outflows increased 15 tb/d. Romania was the top destination for
crude exports outside the OECD Europe region in February, taking in around 26 tb/d.
Net crude imports averaged 8.2 mb/d in February, compared with almost 8.2 mb/d the month before and
about 8.4 mb/d in February 2023.

Graph 8 - 9: OECD Europe’s imports of crude and Graph 8 - 10: OECD Europe’s exports of crude and
products products
mb/d mb/d mb/d mb/d
4 12 3 0.4
2
2 8 0.2
1
0 4 0 0.0
Mar 23
Feb 23
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Mar 23
Feb 23
Feb 24
Aug 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Dec 23
Apr 23
May 23
Oct 23
Jun 23
Jul 23
Jan 24
Gas/diesel oil Naphtha Motor gasoline Gas/diesel oil
Kerosene (jet fuel) LPG Fuel oil (residual) Naphtha
Fuel oil Motor gasoline Kerosene (jet fuel) LPG
Others Crude (RHS) Others Crude (RHS)
Sources: IEA and OPEC. Sources: IEA and OPEC.
Product imports declined by 0.2 mb/d, or about 8%, m-o-m, to average 2.3 mb/d in February. Losses were
driven primarily by diesel. Compared with February 2023, product inflows fell by 0.6 mb/d, or about 20%.
Product exports fell by 64 tb/d, or about 3%, to average 2.2 mb/d. Declines were seen across most major
products, with only fuel oil showing an improvement. Compared to the same month of 2023, product outflows
were down by 0.2 mb/d, or almost 7%.
Net product imports averaged 81 tb/d in February, compared with 208 tb/d the month before and 492 tb/d in
February 2023.
Combined, net crude and product imports averaged 8.3 mb/d in February, up slightly from the month before
and 8.9 mb/d in February 2023.
Table 8 - 5: OECD Europe's crude and product net imports, mb/d
Change
OECD Europe Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Feb 24/Jan 24
Crude oil 8.73 8.07 8.24 0.17
Total products 0.16 0.21 0.08 -0.13
Sources: IEA and OPEC.
Preliminary estimates indicate OECD Europe crude imports remained stable in March, before turning lower in
April and May, amid maintenance and muted demand in the region.
Eurasia
Total crude oil exports from Russia and Central Asia were broadly unchanged in April, m-o-m, averaging
6.6 mb/d. Lower flows from the Black Sea were offset by higher outflows in the Baltic and to the Pacific.
Compared to the same month in 2023, outflows were down by 198 tb/d, or 3%.
Crude exports through the Transneft system rose further in April, increasing by 115 tb/d, or 3%, m-o-m, to
average 4.1 mb/d. Compared to the same month of 2023, exports were down by 76 tb/d, or about 2%.
Transneft shipments from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk declined 82 tb/d, or about 13%, m-o-m, to
average 565 tb/d. Crude exports from the Baltic Sea increased 132 tb/d, or about 8%, to average 1.8 mb/d.
Flows from Primorsk increased 163 tb/d, or about 18%, to average 1.1 mb/d. Exports from Ust-Luga dropped
31 tb/d, or over 4%, to average 681 tb/d.
Shipments via the Druzhba pipeline fell 49 tb/d, or about 20%, m-o-m, to average 197 tb/d in April. Compared
to the same month of 2023, exports via the pipeline were down by 74 tb/d, or 27%. Exports to inland China via
the ESPO pipeline edged up by 9 tb/d, or about 2%, to average 578 tb/d in April. This is 9 tb/d, or 2%, lower
than the flows seen in April 2023. Exports from the Pacific port of Kozmino averaged 962 tb/d, representing
an increase of 105 tb/d, m-o-m, or over 12%. This was about 92 tb/d, or 11%, lower than in the same month
of 2023.
In the Lukoil system, exports via the Varandey offshore platform in the Barents Sea expanded in April by
about 4%, m-o-m, to average 133 tb/d. This is 33% higher than the same month last year.

On other routes, the combined exports from Russia's Far East ports, De Kastri and Aniva, fell by 60 tb/d, or
around 20%, to average 240 tb/d in April. This was a drop of 83 tb/d, or 26%, compared with the volumes
shipped in the same month of 2023.
Central Asian exports averaged 238 tb/d in April, representing an increase of 6% compared to the previous
month, and an almost 10% drop from the same month of 2023.
Black Sea total exports from the CPC terminal fell 125 tb/d in April, or over 8%, to average 1.4 mb/d. This
represents a decline of 38 tb/d, or about 3%, compared with the same month of 2023. Exports via the Baku-
Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline increased 43 tb/d in April, or over 8%, m-o-m, to average 620 tb/d.
Total product exports from Russia and Central Asia fell 318 tb/d, or more than 12%, m-o-m, to average
2.2 mb/d in April. The m-o-m declines were seen across most major products, except VGO. Y-o-y, total product
exports were 0.5 mb/d, or 17% lower, with declines led by naphtha.


Preliminary April 2024 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up by 16.6 mb, m-o-m. At 2,773 mb,
they were 49 mb lower than the same time one year ago, 110 mb less than the latest
five-year average and 154 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks rose
by 19.5 mb, while product stocks fell 2.9 mb, m-o-m, respectively.
OECD commercial crude stocks stood at 1,376 mb. This was 36 mb lower than the same time a year ago,
49 mb below the latest five-year average, and 96 mb less than the 2015-2019 average.
OECD total product stocks stood at 1,396 mb. This is 13 mb less than the same time a year ago, 61 mb
lower than the latest five-year average, and 58 mb below the 2015–2019 average.
In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks increased in April by 0.1 days, m-o-m, to stand
at 60.1 days. This is 1.2 days lower than the level registered in April 2023, 4.9 days below the latest
five-year average, and 2.2 days less than the 2015–2019 average.
Preliminary data for May 2024 shows that total US commercial oil stocks rose by 37.2 mb, m-o-m, to stand
at 1,277 mb. This is 16.6 mb, or 1.3%, higher than the same month in 2023, but 18.4 mb, or 1.4%, below
the latest five-year average. Crude stocks fell by 3.6 mb, while product stocks rose by 40.8 mb, m-o-m.
OECD
Preliminary April 2024 data shows total OECD Graph 9 - 1: OECD commercial oil stocks
commercial oil stocks up by 16.6 mb, m-o-m. At mb mb
2,773 mb, they were 49 mb lower than the same time 3,300 3,300
one year ago and 110 mb less than the latest 3,200 3,200
five-year average and 154 mb below the 2015–2019 3,100 Historical range 3,100
average. 3,000 2019-23 3,000
2,900 2,900
Within the components, crude stocks rose by 2,800 2,800
19.5 mb, while product stocks fell 2.9 mb, m-o-m, 2,700 2,700
respectively. 2,600 2,600
2,500 2,500
Within the OECD regions, in April, total commercial
Feb
Apr
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Mar
May
Jun
Jul
oil stocks rose in OECD Americas and OECD Asia

Pacific, while they fell in OECD Europe. 2022 2023
OECD commercial crude stocks rose by 19.5 mb, 2024 Average 2019-23
m-o-m, ending April at 1,376 mb. This was 36 mb Sources: Argus, EIA, Euroilstock, IEA, METI and OPEC.
lower than the same time a year ago, 49 mb below the latest five-year average, and 96 mb less than the 2015–
2019 average.
Within the OECD regions, OECD Americas and OECD Asia Pacific saw crude stock builds of 12.3 mb and
5.1 mb, m-o-m, respectively. Crude stocks in OECD Europe rose by 2.0 mb, m-o-m.
OECD total product stocks fell by 2.9 mb in April to stand at 1,396 mb. This is 13 mb less than the same time
a year ago, 61 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 58 mb below the 2015–2019 average.
Within the OECD regions, product stocks in OECD Asia-Pacific witnessed a build of 4.1 mb, m-o-m, while
OECD Americas and OECD Europe product stocks dropped by 2.3 mb and 4.7 mb, respectively.
Table 9 - 1: OECD commercial stocks, mb
Change
OECD stocks Apr 23 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 Apr 24/Mar 24
Crude oil 1,412 1,360 1,357 1,376 19.5
Products 1,409 1,410 1,399 1,396 -2.9
Total 2,821 2,770 2,756 2,773 16.6
Days of forward cover 61.2 60.5 60.0 60.1 0.1
Sources: Argus, EIA, Euroilstock, IEA, METI and OPEC.

In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks increased in April by 0.1 days, m-o-m, to stand at
60.1 days. This is 1.2 days less than the level registered in April 2023, 4.9 days lower than the latest five-year
average, and 2.2 days less than the 2015–2019 average.
Within the OECD regions, OECD Americas stood at 5.5 days and OECD Europe 5.2 days below the latest
five-year average, at 58.3 days and 68.7 days, respectively. OECD Asia Pacific was 2.3 days less than the
latest five-year average, standing at 49.8 days.
OECD Americas
OECD Americas’ total commercial stocks rose in April by 10.0 mb, m-o-m, to settle at 1,490 mb. This is 16.6 mb
lower than the same month in 2023 and 45.8 mb below the latest five-year average.
Commercial crude oil stocks in OECD Americas rose in April by 12.3 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 791 mb, which is
9.9 mb higher than in April 2023, but 3.0 mb lower than the latest five-year average.
In contrast, total product stocks in OECD Americas fell by 2.3 mb, m-o-m, in April to stand at 699 mb. This is
26.5 mb lower than the same month in 2023 and 42.8 mb below the latest five-year average. Higher
consumption in the region was behind the product stock draw.
OECD Europe
OECD Europe’s total commercial stocks fell in April by 2.7 mb, m-o-m, to settle at 937 mb. This is 11.3 mb
less than the same month in 2023, and 45.5 mb below the latest five-year average.
OECD Europe’s commercial crude stocks increased by 2.0 mb, m-o-m, to end April at 403 mb. This is 27.5 mb
less than one year ago and 29.0 mb lower than the latest five-year average.
By contrast, total product stocks fell by 4.7 mb, m-o-m, to end April at 533 mb. This is 16.2 mb higher than the
same time a year ago, but 16.6 mb below the latest five-year average.
OECD Asia Pacific

OECD Asia Pacific’s total commercial oil stocks rose in April by 9.2 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 346 mb. This is
20.8 mb lower than the same time a year ago and 19.0 mb below the latest five-year average.
OECD Asia Pacific’s crude stocks rose by 5.1 mb, m-o-m, to end April at 182 mb. This is 18.3 mb lower than
one year ago, and 16.9 mb less than the latest five-year average.
OECD Asia Pacific’s total product stocks increased by 4.1 mb, m-o-m, to end April at 164 mb. This is 2.5 mb
lower than one year ago and 2.0 mb below the latest five-year average.
US
Preliminary data for May 2024 shows that total Graph 9 - 2: US weekly commercial crude oil
US commercial oil stocks rose by 37.2 mb, m-o-m, to inventories
stand at 1,277 mb. This is 16.6 mb, or 1.3%, higher mb mb
than the same month in 2023, but 18.4 mb, or 1.4%,
below the latest five-year average. Crude stocks fell by 540 Historical range 540
3.6 mb, while product stocks rose by 40.8 mb, m-o-m. 2019-23
500 500
US commercial crude stocks in May stood at 456 mb.
This is 4.9 mb, or 1.1%, lower than the same month in 460 460
2023, and 15.2 mb, or 3.2%, below the latest five-year
average. The monthly draw in crude oil stocks is 420 420
attributable to higher crude runs, which increased by Week
730 tb/d or 3.8 pp, m-o-m, to average 17.04 in May. 380 380
1 11 21 31 41 51
By contrast, total product stocks rose in May to stand 2022 2023
at 821 mb. This is 21.5 mb, or 2.7%, higher than in May 2024 Average 2019-23
2023, but 3.2 mb, or 0.4%, below the latest five-year Sources: EIA and OPEC.
average. The product stock build can be attributed to
lower product consumption.

Gasoline stocks rose in May by 2.9 mb, m-o-m, to settle Graph 9 - 3: US weekly gasoline inventories
at 230.9 mb. This is 8.8 mb, or 4.0%, higher than the mb mb
same month in 2023, but 4.6 mb, or 2.0%, below the 280 280
latest five-year average.
260 Historical range 260
Distillate stocks in May rose by 6.1 mb, m-o-m, to stand 2019-23
at 122.5 mb. This is 9.3 mb, or 8.3%, higher than the
240 240
same month in 2023, but 11.3 mb, or 8.4%, below the
220 220
Jet fuel stocks increased by 1.8 mb, m-o-m, ending Week
May at 43.1 mb. This is 0.6 mb, or 1.3%, higher than 200 200
the same month in 2023, and 1.7 mb, or 4.1%, above 1 11 21 31 41 51
the latest five-year average. 2022 2023
Residual fuel oil stocks in May rose by 0.3 mb, 2024 Average 2019-23
m-o-m. At 28.5 mb, they were 4.2 mb, or 12.9%, less Sources: EIA and OPEC.
than a year earlier, and 4.0 mb, or 12.4%, below the
Table 9 - 2: US commercial petroleum stocks, mb
Change
US stocks May 23 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 May 24/Apr 24
Crude oil 460.8 447.2 459.5 455.9 -3.6
Gasoline 222.1 233.4 228.0 230.9 2.9
Distillate fuel 113.1 121.2 116.4 122.5 6.1
Residual fuel oil 32.8 29.9 28.2 28.5 0.3
Jet fuel 42.5 42.2 41.3 43.1 1.8
Total products 799.2 783.0 780.0 820.7 40.8
Total 1,260.0 1,230.3 1,239.5 1,276.6 37.2
SPR 354.4 363.9 367.2 370.2 3.0
Japan
In Japan, total commercial oil stocks in April 2024 rose by 9.2 mb, m-o-m, to settle at 121.9 mb. This is 2.8 mb,
or 2.2%, lower than the same month in 2023 and 5.8 mb, or 4.5%, below the latest five-year average.
Crude and product stocks rose by 5.1 mb and 4.1 mb, m-o-m, respectively.
Japanese commercial crude oil stocks rose in April by Graph 9 - 4: Japan’s commercial oil stocks
5.1 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 67.7 mb. This is 2.3 mb, or mb mb
3.2%, lower than the same month in 2023 and 4.4 mb, 160 160
or 6.2%, below the latest five-year average. The build 150 150
in crude stocks came on the back of higher crude
imports, which increased in April by 228 tb/d, or 9.5%, 140 140
m-o-m, to average 2.6 mb/d. 130 130
Gasoline stocks rose by 0.7 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 120 120

10.5 mb in April. This is 0.1 mb, or 0.7%, higher than 110 Historical range 110
2019-23
a year earlier, but 0.8 mb, or 7.5%, lower than the 100 100
latest five-year average. The build in gasoline stocks
Feb
Apr
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Mar
May
Jun
Jul
came on the back of lower gasoline domestic sales,

which fell by 5.1%, m-o-m, in April. 2022 2023
2024 Average 2019-23
Distillate stocks rose by 1.4 mb, m-o-m, to end April at 21.7 mb. This is 0.3 mb, or 1.6%, lower than the same
month in 2023 and 0.8 mb, or 3.4%, lower than the latest five-year average. Within the distillate components,
jet fuel, gasoil and kerosene stocks rose by 4.3%, 11.2% and 4.3%, respectively.
Total residual fuel oil stocks rose m-o-m by 1.7 mb to end April at 12.8 mb. This is 1.3 mb, or 11.1%, higher
than the same month in 2023, and 0.7 mb, or 6.1%, above the latest five-year average. Within the components,
fuel oil A and fuel oil B.C stocks rose by 13.7% and 16.9%, respectively.

Table 9 - 3: Japan’s commercial oil stocks*, mb

Change
Japan's stocks Apr 23 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 Apr 24/Mar 24
Crude oil 70.0 65.9 62.6 67.7 5.1
Gasoline 10.5 10.8 9.8 10.5 0.7
Naphtha 10.7 7.5 9.0 9.2 0.2
Middle distillates 22.1 24.4 20.3 21.7 1.4
Residual fuel oil 11.5 11.7 11.0 12.8 1.7
Total products 54.7 54.4 50.1 54.2 4.1
Total** 124.7 120.4 112.7 121.9 9.2
Note: * At the end of the month. ** Includes crude oil and main products only.
EU-14 plus UK and Norway

Preliminary data for April 2024 showed that total Graph 9 - 5: EU-14 plus UK and Norway total oil
European commercial oil stocks fell by 2.7 mb, stocks
m-o-m, to stand at 1,014 mb. At this level, they were mb mb
13.1 mb, or 1.3%, below the same month in 2023, and 1,250 1,250
71.9 mb, or 6.6%, less than the latest five-year 1,200 1,200
average. Crude stocks rose by 2.0 mb, m-o-m, while
1,150 Historical range 1,150
product stocks fell by 4.7 mb, m-o-m.
1,100 2019-23 1,100
European crude stocks stood at 421.2 mb in April.
1,050 1,050
This is 21.2 mb, or 4.8%, lower than the same month
in 2023 and 43.0 mb, or 9.3%, below the latest 1,000 1,000
five-year average. The build in crude oil stocks came 950 950
despite higher refinery throughput in the EU-14, plus
Feb
Apr
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Mar
May
Jun
Jul
the UK and Norway, which increased by around
380 tb/d or 4.2%, m-o-m, to stand at 9.45 mb/d. 2022 2023
2024 Average 2019-23
Sources: Argus, Euroilstock and OPEC.
Total European product stocks fell by 4.7 mb, m-o-m, to end April at 592.6 mb. This is 8.1 mb, or 1.4%, higher
than the same month in 2023, but 29.0 mb, or 4.7%, below the latest five-year average. The stock draw can
be attributed to higher demand in the region.
Gasoline stocks fell in April by 1.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 111.1 mb, which is 6.3 mb, or 6.0%, higher than the
same time in 2023, but 3.3 mb, or 2.9%, below the latest five-year average.
Middle distillate stocks decreased in April by 4.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 394.1 mb. This is 3.4 mb, or 0.9%,
higher than the same month in 2023, but 18.1 mb, or 4.4%, lower than the latest five-year average.
Naphtha stocks were down in April by 1.2 mb, m-o-m, ending the month at 26.7 mb. This is 0.4 mb, or 1.6%,
below the same month in 2023, and 3.7 mb, or 12.3 %, lower than the latest five-year average.
By contrast, residual fuel stocks rose in April by 2.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 60.7 mb. This is 2.0 mb, or 3.2%,
lower than the same month in 2023 and 3.9 mb, or 6.0%, below the latest five-year average.
Table 9 - 4: EU-14 plus UK and Norway’s total oil stocks, mb
Change
EU stocks Apr 23 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 Apr 24/Mar 24
Crude oil 442.4 411.3 419.2 421.2 2.0
Gasoline 104.9 110.0 112.1 111.1 -1.0
Naphtha 26.3 25.5 27.9 26.7 -1.2
Middle distillates 390.7 385.0 398.6 394.1 -4.5
Fuel oils 62.6 58.4 58.6 60.7 2.0
Total products 584.5 578.9 597.3 592.6 -4.7
Total 1,026.9 990.2 1,016.5 1,013.8 -2.7
Sources: Argus, Euroilstock and OPEC.

Singapore, Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) and

Fujairah
Singapore
In April, total product stocks in Singapore fell by 1.7 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 45 mb. This is 0.9 mb, or 2.0%,
lower than the same month in 2023 and 2.6 mb, or 5.4%, below the latest five-year average.
Light distillate stocks rose in April by 0.3 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 15.6 mb. This is 0.4 mb, or 2.5%, higher than
the same month in 2023, and 1.4 mb, or 10.1%, above the latest five-year average.
Middle distillate stocks increased in April by 1.2 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 11.4 mb. This is 3.4 mb, or 42.6%,
higher than in April 2023, and 0.8 mb, or 7.7%, above the latest five-year average.
By contrast, residual fuel oil stocks fell by 3.2 mb, m-o-m, ending April at 18.0 mb. This is 4.7 mb, or 20.8%,
lower than in April 2023, and 4.8 mb, or 21.1%, below the latest five-year average.
ARA
Total product stocks in ARA in April rose by 2.0 mb, m-o-m. At 47.3 mb, they were 2.1 mb, or 4.6%, above the
same month in 2023, and 3.0 mb, or 6.8 %, higher than the latest five-year average.
Gasoil stocks in April increased by 0.9 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 16.6 mb. This is 0.1 mb, or 0.4%, less than the
same month in 2023, but 0.1 mb, or 0.9%, higher than the latest five-year average.
Jet oil stocks rose by 0.9 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 6.6 mb in April. This is 0.6 mb, or 8.5%, below the level seen
in April 2023 and broadly in line with the latest five-year average.
Fuel oil stocks rose in April by 0.8 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 10.2 mb. This is 2.2 mb, or 28.2%, higher than in
April 2023 and 2.1 mb, or 26.3%, above the latest five-year average.
By contrast, gasoline stocks fell by 1.7 mb, m-o-m, ending April at 8.8 mb. This is 2.2 mb, or 20.3%, lower than
in April 2023, and 1.5 mb, or 14.7%, below the latest five-year average.
Fujairah
During the week ending 3 June 2024, total oil product stocks in Fujairah rose by 1.21 mb, w-o-w, to stand at
21.57 mb, according to data from FEDCom and S&P Global Commodity Insights. At this level, total oil stocks
were 2.75 mb lower than at the same time a year ago.
Light distillate stocks rose by 0.16 mb, w-o-w, to stand at 7.15 mb, which is 0.73 mb lower than a year ago.
Middle distillate stocks increased by 0.46 mb, w-o-w, to stand at 3.72 mb, which is 0.63 mb less than the same
time last year.
Heavy distillate stocks also rose by 0.59 mb, w-o-w, to stand at 10.70 mb, which is 1.39 mb below the same
time a year ago.


Demand for DoC crude (i.e. crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is
unchanged from the previous assessment at 43.2 mb/d in 2024, around 0.9 mb/d higher than the estimate
for 2023.
Demand for DoC crude in 2025 remains unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 43.9 mb/d,
around 0.7 mb/d higher than the estimate for 2024.
Balance of supply and demand in 2024

Demand for DoC crude
Demand for DoC crude in 2024 is unchanged from the previous assessment at 43.2 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d
higher than the estimate for 2023.
Table 10 - 1: DoC supply/demand balance for 2024*, mb/d
Change
2023 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2024 2024/23
(a) World oil demand 102.2 103.5 103.8 104.9 105.6 104.5 2.2
Non-DoC liquids production 51.7 52.6 52.8 53.0 53.4 53.0 1.2
DoC NGL and non-conventionals 8.2 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.3 8.3 0.1
(b) Total non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs 59.9 60.9 61.1 61.3 61.7 61.3 1.4
Difference (a-b) 42.3 42.6 42.7 43.6 43.9 43.2 0.9
DoC crude oil production 42.0 41.2
Balance -0.3 -1.3
Source: OPEC.
Balance of supply and demand in 2025

Demand for DoC crude
Demand for DoC crude in 2025 remains unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 43.9 mb/d,
around 0.7 mb/d higher than the estimate for 2024.
Table 10 - 2: DoC supply/demand balance for 2025*, mb/d
Change
2024 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025 2025/24
(a) World oil demand 104.5 105.3 105.5 107.0 107.4 106.3 1.8
Non-DoC liquids production 53.0 54.0 53.7 54.0 54.6 54.1 1.1
DoC NGL and non-conventionals 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.2 8.3 8.3 0.0
(b) Total non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs 61.3 62.3 62.1 62.2 62.9 62.4 1.1
Difference (a-b) 43.2 43.0 43.5 44.8 44.4 43.9 0.7
Source: OPEC.

Appendix
Appendix

Appendix
Table 11 - 1: World oil demand and supply balance, mb/d
World oil demand and supply
balance 2021 2022 2023 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2024 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025
World demand
Americas 24.0 24.8 25.0 24.6 25.4 25.6 25.4 25.2 24.6 25.4 25.7 25.5 25.3
of which US 19.8 20.2 20.4 20.0 20.7 20.7 20.8 20.5 20.0 20.7 20.7 20.9 20.6
Europe 13.2 13.5 13.4 13.1 13.6 13.7 13.3 13.4 13.1 13.6 13.7 13.4 13.4
Asia Pacific 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.8 7.0 7.1 7.5 7.3 7.8 7.0 7.1 7.5 7.3
Total OECD 44.5 45.7 45.7 45.4 45.9 46.4 46.3 46.0 45.5 46.0 46.5 46.4 46.1
China 15.4 15.0 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.3 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.7 17.7 17.4
India 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.8 5.8
Other Asia 8.7 9.1 9.3 9.7 9.8 9.5 9.5 9.6 10.0 10.1 9.8 9.8 9.9
Latin America 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1
Middle East 7.8 8.3 8.6 8.8 8.6 9.2 9.0 8.9 9.1 8.9 9.7 9.4 9.3
Africa 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.9 4.7
Russia 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 4.0 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.0
Other Eurasia 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3
Other Europe 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Total Non-OECD 52.7 54.0 56.5 58.1 57.9 58.5 59.3 58.5 59.8 59.5 60.4 61.0 60.2
(a) Total world demand 97.2 99.7 102.2 103.5 103.8 104.9 105.6 104.5 105.3 105.5 107.0 107.4 106.3
Y-o-y change 5.9 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.5 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.8
Non-DoC liquids production
Americas 23.5 24.9 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.3 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.3 27.9
of which US 18.1 19.3 20.9 21.0 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.3 21.7 21.8 21.8 22.0 21.8
Europe 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9
Asia Pacific 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Total OECD 27.8 29.0 30.7 31.0 31.4 31.5 31.9 31.5 32.2 31.9 32.1 32.6 32.2
China 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5
India 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Other Asia 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6
Latin America 6.0 6.3 7.0 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.6
Middle East 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Africa 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
Other Eurasia 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Other Europe 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total Non-OECD 17.5 17.9 18.6 19.0 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.3
Total Non-DoC production 45.4 46.9 49.3 50.1 50.3 50.5 50.9 50.4 51.4 51.1 51.4 52.0 51.5
Processing gains 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
Total Non-DoC liquids production 47.7 49.3 51.7 52.6 52.8 53.0 53.4 53.0 54.0 53.7 54.0 54.6 54.1
DoC NGLs 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.2 8.3 8.3
(b) Total Non-DoC liquids
production and DoC NGLs 55.3 57.2 59.9 60.9 61.1 61.3 61.7 61.3 62.3 62.1 62.2 62.9 62.4
Y-o-y change 0.6 1.9 2.7 2.0 1.8 1.2 0.5 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1
(secondary sources) 25.2 27.7 27.0 26.6
Non-OPEC DoC crude production 15.0 15.1 15.0 14.7

DoC crude oil production 40.3 42.8 42.0 41.2
Total liquids production 95.5 100.1 101.9 102.2
Balance (stock change and
miscellaneous) -1.6 0.4 -0.3 -1.3
OECD closing stock levels, mb
Commercial 2,652 2,781 2,777 2,756
SPR 1,484 1,214 1,207 1,215
Total 4,136 3,995 3,984 3,971
Oil-on-water 1,348 1,546 1,438 1,460
Days of forward consumption in
OECD, days
Commercial onland stocks 58 61 60 60
SPR 32 27 26 26
Total 91 87 87 86
Memo items
(a) - (b) 41.9 42.4 42.3 42.6 42.7 43.6 43.9 43.2 43.0 43.5 44.8 44.4 43.9
Source: OPEC.

Appendix
Table 11 - 2: World oil demand and supply balance: changes from last month's table*, mb/d
World oil demand and supply
balance 2021 2022 2023 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2024 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025
World demand
Americas - - - - - - - - - - - - -
of which US - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Europe - - - -0.1 - - - 0.0 -0.1 - - - 0.0
Asia Pacific - - - 0.0 - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 0.0 0.0
Total OECD - - - -0.1 - - 0.0 0.0 -0.1 - - 0.0 0.0
China - - - 0.0 0.0 - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 0.0
India - - - - 0.0 - - - - 0.0 - - -
Other Asia - - - 0.0 0.0 - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 0.0
Latin America - - - 0.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 - - - 0.0
Middle East - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Africa - - - - 0.0 - - - - 0.0 - - -
Russia - - - 0.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 - - - 0.0
Other Eurasia - - - 0.0 - - - - 0.0 - - - -
Other Europe - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total Non-OECD - - - 0.1 0.1 - - 0.0 0.1 0.1 - - 0.0
(a) Total world demand - - - -0.1 0.1 - 0.0 - -0.1 0.1 - 0.0 -
Y-o-y change - - - -0.1 0.1 - - - - - - - -
Non-DoC liquids production
Americas - - - 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
of which US - - - 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 - - - - - -
Europe - - - - 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Asia Pacific - - - 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0.0 0.0 - -
Total OECD - - - 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
China - - - - - - - - - - - - -
India - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Other Asia - - - - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 -
Latin America - - - 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 - - - - - -
Middle East - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Africa - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Eurasia - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Other Europe - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total Non-OECD - - 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Non-DoC production - - 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 - - - - - -
Processing gains - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Total Non-DoC liquids
production - - 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 - - - - - -
DoC NGLs - - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
(b) Total Non-DoC liquids
production and DoC NGLs - - 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Y-o-y change - - - 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0
(secondary sources) - - - 0.0
Non-OPEC DoC crude
production - - - 0.0
DoC crude oil production - - - 0.0
Total liquids production - - 0.0 0.1
Balance (stock change and
miscellaneous) - - 0.0 0.1
OECD closing stock levels,
mb
Commercial - - 0.1 -36.9
SPR - - - 2.9
Total - - 0.1 -33.9
Oil-on-water - - - -77.9
Days of forward consumption
in OECD, days
Commercial onland stocks - - 0.0 -0.8
SPR - - 0.0 0.1
Total - - 0.1 -0.7
Memo items
(a) - (b) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Note: * This compares Table 11 - 1 in this issue of the MOMR with Table 11 - 1 in the May 2024 issue.
This table shows only where changes have occurred.
Source: OPEC.

Appendix
Table 11 - 3: OECD oil stocks and oil on water at the end of period
OECD oil stocks and

oil on water 2021 2022 2023 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24
Closing stock levels, mb
OECD onland commercial 2,652 2,781 2,777 2,664 2,750 2,781 2,759 2,793 2,826 2,777 2,756
Americas 1,470 1,492 1,518 1,435 1,473 1,492 1,489 1,513 1,539 1,518 1,480
Europe 857 936 905 911 918 936 920 921 923 905 939
Asia Pacific 325 353 353 318 359 353 351 359 365 353 337
OECD SPR 1,484 1,214 1,207 1,343 1,246 1,214 1,217 1,206 1,209 1,207 1,215
Americas 596 374 357 495 418 374 373 349 353 357 366
Europe 479 461 466 452 448 461 460 470 471 466 467
Asia Pacific 409 378 384 395 380 378 383 387 384 384 383
OECD total 4,136 3,995 3,984 4,008 3,996 3,995 3,976 3,999 4,035 3,984 3,971
Oil-on-water 1,348 1,546 1,438 1,451 1,554 1,546 1,560 1,449 1,367 1,438 1,460
Days of forward
consumption in OECD, days
OECD onland commercial 58 61 60 58 60 62 60 61 61 61 60
Americas 59 60 60 58 60 61 59 60 61 62 58
Europe 63 70 67 65 69 72 68 67 69 69 69
Asia Pacific 44 48 48 44 47 45 50 51 49 45 48
OECD SPR 32 27 26 29 27 27 27 26 26 27 26
Americas 24 15 14 20 17 15 15 14 14 15 14
Europe 35 34 35 32 34 35 34 34 35 35 34
Asia Pacific 55 52 52 55 50 48 55 55 51 49 55
OECD total 93 96 95 87 87 88 87 87 88 88 86
Sources: Argus, EIA, Euroilstock, IEA, JODI, METI and OPEC.

Appendix
Table 11 - 4: Non-DoC liquids production and DoC natural gas liquids, mb/d*
Non-DoC liquids Change Change Change
production and
DoC NGLs 2023 23/22 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2024 24/23 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 2025 25/24
US 20.9 1.6 21.0 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.3 0.4 21.7 21.8 21.8 22.0 21.8 0.5
Canada 5.7 0.1 5.9 5.8 5.9 6.1 5.9 0.2 6.1 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.1 0.2
Chile 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
OECD Americas 26.6 1.7 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.3 0.7 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.3 27.9 0.7
Norway 2.0 0.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 0.1 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 0.1
UK 0.8 -0.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.0
Denmark 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Other OECD 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0
OECD Europe 3.7 0.1 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.8 0.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 0.1
Australia 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0
Other Asia Pacific 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
OECD Asia Pacific 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0
Total OECD 30.7 1.7 31.0 31.4 31.5 31.9 31.5 0.8 32.2 31.9 32.1 32.6 32.2 0.8
China 4.5 0.1 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 0.0 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 0.0
India 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0
Indonesia 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0
Thailand 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0
Vietnam 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
Asia others 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
Other Asia 1.6 0.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.0
Argentina 0.8 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.1
Brazil 4.2 0.5 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.3 0.1 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 0.2
Colombia 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0
Ecuador 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0
Latin America
others 0.7 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.1
Latin America 7.0 0.6 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.3 0.4 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.6 0.3
Qatar 1.9 0.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.0
Middle East others 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Middle East 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0
Angola 1.1 0.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0
Chad 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Egypt 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0
Ghana 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
South Africa 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Africa other 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1
Africa 2.2 -0.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 0.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 0.0
Eurasia others 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0
Other Eurasia 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0
Other Europe 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Total Non-OECD 18.6 0.6 19.0 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.0 0.4 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.3 0.3
Non-DoC
production 49.3 2.4 50.1 50.3 50.5 50.9 50.4 1.2 51.4 51.1 51.4 52.0 51.5 1.0
Processing gains 2.5 0.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 0.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 0.1
Non-DoC liquids
production 51.7 2.4 52.6 52.8 53.0 53.4 53.0 1.2 54.0 53.7 54.0 54.6 54.1 1.1
DoC NGLs 8.2 0.2 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.3 8.3 0.1 8.3 8.4 8.2 8.3 8.3 0.0
Non-DoC liquids
production and
DoC NGLs 59.9 2.7 60.9 61.1 61.3 61.7 61.3 1.4 62.3 62.1 62.2 62.9 62.4 1.1
Source: OPEC.

Appendix
Table 11 - 5: World rig count, units
Change Change
World rig count 2021 2022 2023 2023/22 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 Apr 24 May 24 M ay/Apr
US 475 722 688 -34 648 622 623 617 602 -15
Canada 133 174 177 3 188 180 210 131 120 -11
Mexico 45 47 55 8 54 59 58 53 47 -6
OECD Americas 654 945 921 -24 892 861 893 803 770 -33
Norway 17 17 17 0 19 18 14 15 16 1
UK 8 10 12 2 10 12 8 8 9 1
OECD Europe 58 65 66 1 64 66 63 65 68 3
OECD Asia Pacific 23 24 25 1 25 23 24 25 24 -1
Total OECD 735 1,034 1,012 -22 981 950 979 893 862 -31
Other Asia* 174 186 204 18 206 206 210 227 216 -11
Latin America 91 119 120 1 118 113 105 108 106 -2
Middle East 57 62 61 -1 59 62 63 63 61 -2
Africa 46 64 67 3 66 68 63 55 53 -2
Other Europe 9 10 11 1 10 10 9 9 9 0
Total Non-OECD 377 441 463 22 459 459 450 462 445 -17
Non-OPEC rig count 1,112 1,475 1,475 0 1,440 1,409 1,430 1,355 1,307 -48
Algeria 26 32 36 4 37 43 41 43 42 -1
Congo 0 1 1 0 2 0 2 1 1 0
Equatorial Guinea** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gabon 2 3 3 0 3 3 3 4 4 0
Iran** 117 117 117 0 117 117 117 117 117 0
Iraq 39 51 61 10 62 62 62 62 62 0
Kuwait 25 27 24 -3 24 24 27 30 29 -1
Libya 13 7 14 7 14 17 20 18 18 0
Nigeria 7 10 14 4 16 14 17 19 16 -3
Saudi Arabia 62 73 83 10 85 84 87 83 85 2
UAE 42 47 57 10 56 62 62 62 62 0
Venezuela 6 3 2 -1 2 2 2 3 3 0
OPEC rig count 339 371 412 41 418 428 439 442 439 -3
World rig count*** 1,451 1,846 1,887 41 1,858 1,837 1,869 1,797 1,746 -51
of which:
Oil 1,143 1,463 1,498 35 1,477 1,464 1,479 1,430 1,398 -32
Gas 275 352 357 5 338 333 345 326 309 -17
Others 33 31 32 1 43 41 45 42 39 -3
Note: * Other Asia includes India and offshore rigs for China.
** Estimated data when Baker Hughes Incorporated did not reported the data.
*** Data excludes onshore China as well as Russia and other Eurasia.
Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.
Sources: Baker Hughes and OPEC.

Glossary of Terms
Glossary of Terms
Abbreviations
b barrels
b/d barrels per day
bp basis points
bb billion barrels
bcf billion cubic feet
cu m cubic metres
mb million barrels
mb/d million barrels per day
mmbtu million British thermal units
mn million
m-o-m month-on-month
mt metric tonnes
q-o-q quarter-on-quarter
pp percentage points
tb/d thousand barrels per day

tcf trillion cubic feet
y-o-y year-on-year
y-t-d year-to-date
Acronyms
ARA Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp
BoE Bank of England

BoJ Bank of Japan
BOP Balance of payments
BRIC Brazil, Russia, India and China
CAPEX capital expenditures

CCI Consumer Confidence Index
CFTC Commodity Futures Trading Commission
CIF cost, insurance and freight
CPI consumer price index
DoC Declaration of Cooperation

DCs developing countries
DUC drilled, but uncompleted (oil well)
ECB European Central Bank

EIA US Energy Information Administration
Emirates NBD Emirates National Bank of Dubai
EMs emerging markets
EV electric vehicle

Glossary of Terms
FAI fixed asset investment

FCC fluid catalytic cracking
FDI foreign direct investment
Fed US Federal Reserve
FID final investment decision
FOB free on board
FPSO floating production storage and offloading
FSU Former Soviet Union
FX Foreign Exchange
FY fiscal year
GDP gross domestic product

GFCF gross fixed capital formation
GoM Gulf of Mexico
GTLs gas-to-liquids
HH Henry Hub
HSFO high-sulphur fuel oil
ICE Intercontinental Exchange

IEA International Energy Agency
IMF International Monetary Fund
IOCs international oil companies
IP industrial production
ISM Institute of Supply Management
JODI Joint Organisations Data Initiative
LIBOR London inter-bank offered rate

LLS Light Louisiana Sweet
LNG liquefied natural gas
LPG liquefied petroleum gas
LR long-range (vessel)
LSFO low-sulphur fuel oil
MCs (OPEC) Member Countries

MED Mediterranean
MENA Middle East/North Africa
MOMR (OPEC) Monthly Oil Market Report
MPV multi-purpose vehicle
MR medium-range or mid-range (vessel)
NBS National Bureau of Statistics

NGLs natural gas liquids
NPC National People’s Congress (China)
NWE Northwest Europe
NYMEX New York Mercantile Exchange
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

OPEX operational expenditures
OIV total open interest volume
ORB OPEC Reference Basket
OSP Official Selling Price
PADD Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts

PBoC People’s Bank of China
PMI purchasing managers’ index
PPI producer price index

Glossary of Terms
RBI Reserve Bank of India

REER real effective exchange rate
ROI return on investment
SAAR seasonally-adjusted annualized rate
SIAM Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers
SRFO straight-run fuel oil
SUV sports utility vehicle
ULCC ultra-large crude carrier

ULSD ultra-low sulphur diesel
USEC US East Coast
USGC US Gulf Coast
USWC US West Coast
VGO vacuum gasoil

VLCC very large crude carriers
WPI wholesale price index

WS Worldscale
WTI West Texas Intermediate
WTS West Texas Sour

OPEC Basket average price US$/b
Down 5.53 in May May 2024 83.59
April 2024 89.12
Year-to-date 83.65
May OPEC crude production mb/d, according to secondary sources
Up 0.03 in May May 2024 26.63
April 2024 26.60
May Non-OPEC DoC crude production mb/d, according to secondary sources
Down 0.15 in May May 2024 14.29
April 2024 14.44
Economic growth rate per cent
World OECD US Eurozone Japan China India
2024 2.8 1.3 2.2 0.5 0.3 4.8 6.6

2025 2.9 1.5 1.9 1.2 0.9 4.6 6.3
Supply and demand mb/d
2024 24/23 2025 25/24
World demand 104.5 2.2 World demand 106.3 1.8

Non-DoC liquids production 53.0 1.2 Non-DoC liquids production 54.1 1.1
DoC NGLs 8.3 0.1 DoC NGLs 8.3 0.0
Difference 43.2 0.9 Difference 43.9 0.7
OECD commercial stocks mb
Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 Apr 24/Mar 24

Crude oil 1,360 1,357 1,376 19.5
Products 1,410 1,399 1,396 –2.9
Total 2,770 2,756 2,773 16.6
Days of forward cover 60.5 60.0 60.1 0.1
Next report to be issued on 10 July 2024.

OPEC MOMR June 2024

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Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

Oil market highlights v

World Oil Demand

World Oil Supply

Crude and Refined Products Trade

Editing and Design

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024 i

Oil Market Highlights

World Oil Demand

World Oil Supply

Product Markets and Refining Operations

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – May 2024 iii

Crude and Refined Product Trade

Commercial Stock Movements

Balance of Supply and Demand

iv OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024 v

vi OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024

Crude Oil Price Movements 1

World Oil Demand 28

World Oil Supply 38

Product Markets and Refinery Operations 51

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024 vii

Crude and Refined Products Trade 61

Commercial Stock Movements 67

Balance of Supply and Demand 72

viii OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024

Crude Oil Price Movements

Crude spot prices

draw in US crude stocks and higher global oil refinery

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024 1

2 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024

OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value

The oil futures market

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024 3

4 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024

The futures market structure

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024 5

6 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024

Trends in selected commodity markets

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024 7

Graph 2 - 1: Major commodity price indices Graph 2 - 2: Inventories at the LME

8 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024

Investment flows into commodities

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024 9

Table 3 - 1: Economic growth rate and revision, 2024–2025*, %

Update on the latest global developments

10 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024

Near-term global expectations

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024 11

12 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024

somewhat weakening labour market trend may be

14 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024

Retail sales have shown modest growth in value

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024 15

The Eurozone’s May’s PMIs reflected a mixed Graph 3 - 6: Eurozone PMIs

OECD Asia Pacific

16 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2024

IP continued its significant decline, falling by 3.4%, Graph 3 - 7: Japan’s exports