State Budget Analysis - Kerala 2020-21
State Budget Analysis - Kerala 2020-21
State Budget Analysis - Kerala 2020-21
2020-21
The Finance Minister, Dr. T. M. Thomas Isaac, presented the Budget for Kerala for financial year 2020-21 on
February 7, 2020.
Budget Highlights
The Gross State Domestic Product of Kerala for 2020-21 (at current prices) is projected to be Rs 9,78,064
crore. This is 12.2% higher than the revised estimate for 2019-20.
Total expenditure for 2020-21 is estimated to be Rs 1,44,265 crore, a 14.8% increase over the revised
estimate of 2019-20. In 2019-20, total expenditure is estimated to decrease by 11.5% (Rs 16,337 crore)
from the budget estimates.
Total receipts (excluding borrowings) for 2020-21 are estimated to be Rs 1,14,970 crore, an increase of
15.6% as compared to the revised estimate of 2019-20. In 2019-20, total receipts (excluding borrowings)
are estimated to fall short of the budgeted estimate by Rs 16,233 crore (14% of the budgeted estimate).
Revenue deficit for 2020-21 is targeted at Rs 15,201 crore, or 1.6% of the Gross State Domestic Product
(GSDP). Fiscal deficit is targeted at Rs 29,295 crore (3% of GSDP).
In 2020-21, the sectors of Water Supply, Sanitation, Housing and Urban Development, Rural Development and
Social Welfare and Nutrition saw the highest increase in allocations over the revised estimate of previous year.
Policy Highlights
Tax proposals: The tax rate on motorcycles (value upto Rs 2 lakh) will be increased by 1% and on motor
cars (of value upto Rs 15 lakh) will be increased by 2%. Electric auto-rickshaws will be exempted from tax
for the first five years. The fair value of land fixed by the government will be increased by 10%. The
Registration Act will be amended to make registration of title deeds compulsory.
Infrastructure: Dyuthi scheme worth Rs 4,000 crore is envisaged for renovation of distribution lines. 500
Mega Watt of installed capacity will be created from solar power stations. One lakh houses/flats will be
constructed under Life Mission in 2020-21.
Education and employment: Local Employment Assurance Programme (LEAP) will be started to give
employment to 1.5 lakh people per year through local self-government institutions. A program for the
renovation of laboratories in all government colleges will be implemented in 2020-21. 60 new courses for
higher education are to be sanctioned. Solar units will be installed in all schools.
Kerala’s Economy
GSDP: The growth rate of Kerala’s Figure 1: Growth in GSDP and sectors in Kerala (year-on-
GSDP (at current prices) has increased year)
from 10.3% in 2017-18 to 11.6% in 14.0% 12.8% 12.2% 13.0%
2018-19. 12.3% 11.4%
12.0% 11.4% 12.4%
10.5%
Sectors: In 2018-19, agriculture,
9.3% 9.5%
manufacturing, and services 10.0%
8.3%
contributed to 11%, 25% and 64% of 8.0%
the GSVA. These sectors grew by
-0.6%, 11.6% and 12.6%, 6.0%
respectively.
4.0%
Per capita income: The per capita
2.0%
GSDP of Kerala in 2018-19 (at current
prices) was Rs 2,25,484. This is 11% 0.0%
higher than that in 2017-18. -0.6%
-2.0%
Unemployment: According to the Agriculture Manufacturing Services GSDP
annual report of the Periodic Labour 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Force Survey (2017-18), Kerala has
one of the highest unemployment rates Sources: Kerala Economic Review 2019; PRS.
at 11.4% as compared to the all-India Note: All numbers are as per current prices. Numbers for 2018-19 are quick
estimates from the Kerala Economic Review 2019.
unemployment rate of 6.1%.
Anurag Vaishnav
[email protected] February 8, 2020
Kerala Budget Analysis 2020-21 PRS Legislative Research
Expenditure in 2020-21
Capital expenditure for 2020-21 is proposed to be Rs
14,428 crore, which is an increase of 58.1% over the Grants to Local Governments
revised estimates of 2019-20.
The state government provides compensation and
Capital expenditure includes expenditure affecting the assignments to local bodies and Panchayati Raj
assets and liabilities of the state, such as: (i) capital institutions. In 2020-21, this amount is estimated to
outlay, i.e. expenditure which leads to creation of assets be Rs 9,758 crore. This is a 16% increase over the
(such as bridges and hospitals), and (ii) repayment and revised estimates of 2019-20.
grant of loans by the state government.
Kerala’s capital outlay for 2020-21 is estimated to be Rs 12,913 crore, which is 61% higher than the revised
estimate of 2019-20. The capital outlay towards water supply, sanitation, housing and urban development
is estimated to increase by Rs 912 crore (an increase of 261%) from the revised estimates of 2019-20. The
revised estimate for capital outlay is 50% lower compared to the budget estimate for the year 2019-20.
Revenue expenditure for 2020-21 is proposed to be Rs 1,29,837 crore, which is an increase of 11.4% over
revised estimates of 2019-20. This expenditure includes payment of salaries, interest payments etc.
Table 2: Expenditure budget 2020-21 (in Rs crore)
2018-19 2019-20 2019-20 % change from BE 2020-21 % change from RE
Items
Actuals Budgeted Revised 2019-20 to RE 2019-20 Budgeted 2019-20 to BE 2020-21
Receipts in 2020-21
The total revenue receipts for 2020-21 are
estimated to be Rs 1,14,636 crore, an increase 15th Finance Commission (FC) recommendations for
of 15.7% over the revised estimates of 2019- 2020-21
20. Of this, Rs 82,007 (72% of the revenue The 15th FC submitted its first report with recommendations for the
receipts) crore will be raised by the state year 2020-21. The final report with recommendations for the 2021-
through its own resources, and Rs 32,629 26 period will be submitted by October 30, 2020. As per the
crore (28% of the revenue receipts) will be recommendations in the first report, the share of states in the
devolved by the centre in the form of grants centre’s taxes will be decreased from 42% during the 2015-20 period
and the state’s share in centre's taxes. to 41% for 2020-21 as Jammu and Kashmir is now a Union Territory.
Kerala’s share in the divisible pool (out of 100) will decline from 2.50
Non-Tax Revenue: Kerala has estimated to during the 2015-20 period to 1.94 for 2020-21 (a decrease of 22%).
generate Rs 15,070 crore through non-tax As per the Union Budget 2020-21, Kerala is estimated to receive Rs
sources in 2020-21. Of this, Rs 11,570 crore 15,237 crore through devolution from the centre. In addition, the
is estimated to come from state lotteries. state will receive Rs 2,726 crore as grants for local bodies and
calamity relief.
Table 4: Break up of state government receipts
(Rs crore)
% change % change
2018-19 2019-20 2019-20 from BE 2020-21 from RE
Items
Actuals Budgeted Revised 2019-20 to Budgeted 2019-20 to
RE 2019-20 BE 2020-21
State's Own Tax 50,644 65,785 55,671 -15.4% 67,420 21.1%
State's Own Non-Tax 11,783 15,070 13,244 -12.1% 14,587 10.1%
Share in Central Taxes 19,038 22,798 19,000 -16.7% 20,935 10.2%
Grants-in-aid from Centre 11,389 11,702 11,128 -4.9% 11,694 5.1%
Total Revenue Receipts 92,854 1,15,355 99,043 -14.1% 1,14,636 15.7%
Borrowings 26,985 26,265 25,886 -1.4% 29,242 13.0%
Other receipts 257 335 414 23.6% 334 -19.3%
Total Capital Receipts 27,242 26,600 26,300 -1.1% 29,576 12.4%
Total Receipts 1,20,096 1,41,955 1,25,343 -11.7% 1,44,212 15.1%
Sources: Kerala Budget Documents 2020-21; PRS.
Tax Revenue: Total own tax revenue of Kerala is estimated to be Rs 67,420 crore in 2020-21. The own
tax to GSDP ratio is targeted at 8.4% in 2020-21, which is in the same range as the revised estimate of 7.9%
in 2019-20. This implies that growth in collection of taxes has been at par with the growth in the economy.
Table 5: Some of state’s own-tax revenue (in Rs crore)
% change % change % of
2018-19 2019-20 2019-20 from BE 2020-21 from RE Revenue
Items
Actuals Budgeted Revised 19-20 to Budgeted 19-20 to Receipts
RE 19-20 BE 20-21 in 20-21
State GST 21,015 29,011 23,690 -18.3% 32,388 36.7% 28.3%
Sales Tax and VAT 19,226 23,948 21,148 -11.7% 23,263 10.0% 20.3%
State Excise Duty 2,521 2,984 2,610 -12.5% 2,801 7.3% 2.4%
Stamps Duty and Registration Fees 3,693 4,487 3,915 -12.8% 4,306 10.0% 3.8%
Taxes on Vehicle 3,709 4,712 3,709 -21.3% 3,968 7.0% 3.5%
Taxes and Duties on Electricity 62 177 69 -61.2% 75 10.0% 0.1%
Land Revenue 203 221 305 37.7% 376 23.5% 0.3%
GST Compensation Grants 2,884 4,721
Sources: Kerala Budget Documents 2020-21; PRS.
State Goods and Services Tax (SGST) is the largest component of tax revenue of the state. It is
expected to generate Rs 32,388 crore in 2020-21. This is an increase of 37% from the revised
estimates of 2019-20. SGST comprises 28% of revenue receipts budgeted for the year 2020-21. Rs
4,721 crore is estimated as the GST compensation grant for year 2019-20 (as per the revised estimates).
In 2020-21, Kerala is expected to generate Rs 23,263 crore through levy of sales tax (on items such as
petroleum products), and VAT. This is an increase of 10% over the revised estimates of 2019-20.
Further, in 2020-21 the state is expected to generate Rs 4,306 crore from stamp duty and registration
fees and Rs 3,968 crore from taxes on vehicles.
Figures 2 and 3 show the trend in deficits and outstanding liabilities targets from 2018-19 to 2022-23.
Figure 2: Revenue and Fiscal Deficit/Surplus Figure 3: Outstanding liabilities targets
(as % of GSDP) (as % of GSDP)
0% 40%
30.4% 30.3% 30.1% 29.6% 29.2%
-1%
30%
-2% -1.6%
-2.0% 20%
-2.2%
-3%
-3.0% -3.0% 10%
-4% -3.4%
2018-19 2019-20 (RE) 2020-21 (BE) 0%
Revenue Deficit Fiscal Deficit 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
(RE) (BE)
Sources: Kerala Budget Documents; PRS.
Sources: Kerala Budget Documents; PRS.
DISCLAIMER: This document is being furnished to you for your information. You may choose to reproduce or redistribute this report for
non-commercial purposes in part or in full to any other person with due acknowledgement of PRS Legislative Research (“PRS”). The
opinions expressed herein are entirely those of the author(s). PRS makes every effort to use reliable and comprehensive information, but
PRS does not represent that the contents of the report are accurate or complete. PRS is an independent, not-for-profit group. This document
has been prepared without regard to the objectives or opinions of those who may receive it.
Annexure
The graphs below compare Kerala’s expenditure on six key sectors as a proportion of its total budget, with 28
other states.1
Education: Kerala has allocated 14.6% of its expenditure on education in 2020-21. This is lower than the
average budget allocation for education by 28 other states (using 2019-20 BE).
Health: Kerala has allocated 5.5% of its total expenditure on health, which is marginally higher than the
average expenditure of 28 other states.
Agriculture and allied activities: The state has allocated 5.2% of its total budget towards agriculture and
allied activities. This is lower than the allocations of 28 other states (7.1%).
Rural development: Kerala has allocated 4.5% of its expenditure on rural development. This is lower
than the average (6.2%) of the 28 other states.
Police: Kerala has allocated 2.6% of its total expenditure on police, which is lower than the average
expenditure of 28 other states (4.1%).
Roads and bridges: Kerala has allocated 3.6% of its total expenditure on roads and bridges, which is
lower than the average expenditure of 28 other states (4.2%).
10% 4% 4%
5% 2% 2%
0% 0% 0%
2018-19
2019-20 (RE)
2019-20 (BE)
2020-21 (BE)
Average of 29 states
2018-19
2019-20 (RE)
2018-19
2019-20 (RE)
2019-20 (BE)
2020-21 (BE)
Average of 29 states
2019-20 (BE)
Average of 29 states
2020-21 (BE)
(2019-20 BE)
(2019-20 BE)
(2019-20 BE)
2018-19
2018-19
2019-20 (RE)
2019-20 (RE)
2019-20 (RE)
2019-20 (BE)
2020-21 (BE)
Average of 29 states
2019-20 (BE)
2020-21 (BE)
Average of 29 states
2019-20 (BE)
2020-21 (BE)
Average of 29 states
(2019-20 BE)
(2019-20 BE)
(2019-20 BE)
Note: 2018-19, 2019-20 (BE), 2019-20 (RE), and 2020-21 (BE) figures are for Kerala.
Source: Annual Financial Statement (2019-20 and 2020-21), various state budgets; PRS.
1
The 28 other states include all states except Manipur. It includes the Union Territory of Delhi and erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir.
February 8, 2020 -6-
Kerala Budget Analysis 2020-21 PRS Legislative Research
Table 7: Share of states in Centre's taxes (recommendations by 14th and 15th Finance Commission)
State 14th Finance Commission 15th Finance Commission % Change Devolution for
(2015-2020) (2020-21) FY 2020-21
Share out of Share in Share out Share in Weightage Share in (In Rs crore)
42% divisible pool of 41% divisible divisible
pool pool
Andhra Pradesh 1.81 4.31 1.69 4.11 -7% -5% 35,156
Arunachal 0.58 1.38 0.72 1.76 24% 28% 15,051
Pradesh
Assam 1.39 3.31 1.28 3.13 -8% -5% 26,776
Bihar 4.06 9.67 4.13 10.06 2% 4% 86,039
Chhattisgarh 1.29 3.07 1.4 3.42 9% 11% 29,230
Goa 0.16 0.38 0.16 0.39 0% 3% 3,301
Gujarat 1.3 3.1 1.39 3.4 7% 10% 29,059
Haryana 0.46 1.1 0.44 1.08 -4% -2% 9,253
Himachal 0.3 0.71 0.33 0.8 10% 13% 6,833
Pradesh
Jammu and 0.78 1.86 - - - - -
Kashmir
Jharkhand 1.32 3.14 1.36 3.31 3% 5% 28,332
Karnataka 1.98 4.71 1.49 3.65 -25% -23% 31,180
Kerala 1.05 2.5 0.8 1.94 -24% -22% 16,616
Madhya Pradesh 3.17 7.55 3.23 7.89 2% 5% 67,439
Maharashtra 2.32 5.52 2.52 6.14 9% 11% 52,465
Manipur 0.26 0.62 0.29 0.72 12% 16% 6,140
Meghalaya 0.27 0.64 0.31 0.77 15% 20% 6,542
Mizoram 0.19 0.45 0.21 0.51 11% 13% 4,327
Nagaland 0.21 0.5 0.23 0.57 10% 14% 4,900
Odisha 1.95 4.64 1.9 4.63 -3% 0% 39,586
Punjab 0.66 1.57 0.73 1.79 11% 14% 15,291
Rajasthan 2.31 5.5 2.45 5.98 6% 9% 51,131
Sikkim 0.15 0.36 0.16 0.39 7% 8% 3,318
Tamil Nadu 1.69 4.02 1.72 4.19 2% 4% 35,823
Telangana 1.02 2.43 0.87 2.13 -15% -12% 18,241
Tripura 0.27 0.64 0.29 0.71 7% 11% 6,063
Uttar Pradesh 7.54 17.95 7.35 17.93 -3% 0% 1,53,342
Uttarakhand 0.44 1.05 0.45 1.1 2% 5% 9,441
West Bengal 3.08 7.33 3.08 7.52 0% 3% 64,301
Total 42 100 41 100 8,55,176
Sources: Report of 14th and 15th Finance Commission (Interim Report); Union Budget Documents; PRS.