Kest 107
Kest 107
Kest 107
Index Numbers
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INDEX NUMBERS 91
Case 2
You must be reading about the sensex
in the newspapers. The sensex crossing
8000 points is, indeed, greeted with
euphoria. When, sensex dipped 600
points recently, it eroded investors’
wealth by Rs 1,53,690 crores. What
exactly is sensex?
Case 3
The government says inflation rate will Conventionally, index numbers are
not accelerate due to the rise in the price expressed in terms of percentage. Of the
of petroleum products. How does one two periods, the period with which the
measure inflation? comparison is to be made, is known as
These are a sample of questions the base period. The value in the base
you confront in your daily life. A study period is given the index number 100.
of the index number helps in analysing If you want to know how much the
these questions. price has changed in 2005 from the
level in 1990, then 1990 becomes the
2. W HAT IS AN INDEX NUMBER base. The index number of any period
is in proportion with it. Thus an index
An index number is a statistical device
number of 250 indicates that the value
for measuring changes in the
is two and half times that of the base
magnitude of a group of related
variables. It represents the general period.
trend of diverging ratios, from which it Price index numbers measure and
is calculated. It is a measure of the permit comparison of the prices of
average change in a group of related certain goods. Quantity index numbers
variables over two different situations. measure the changes in the physical
The comparison may be between like volume of production, construction or
categories such as persons, schools, employment. Though price index
hospitals etc. An index number also numbers are more widely used, a
measures changes in the value of the production index is also an important
variables such as prices of specified list indicator of the level of the output in
of commodities, volume of production the economy.
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INDEX NUMBERS 93
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Activity Σ WR 9786.85
CPI = = = 97.86
• Interchange the current period ΣW 100
values with the base period
values, in the data given in This exercise shows that the cost of
Example 2. Calculate the price living has declined by 2.14 per cent.
index using Laspeyre’s, and What does an index larger than 100
Paasche’s formula. What indicate? It means a higher cost of
difference do you observe from living necessitating an upward
the earlier illustration?
adjustment in wages and salaries. The
rise is equal to the amount, it exceeds
4. SOME IMPORTANT INDEX NUMBERS 100. If the index is 150, 50 per cent
Consumer price index upward adjustment is required. The
Consumer price index (CPI), also salaries of the employees have to be
known as the cost of living index, raised by 50 per cent.
TABLE 7.4
Item Weight in % Base period Current period R=P1/P0 × 100 WR
W price (Rs) price (Rs) (in%)
Food 35 150 145 96.67 3883.45
Fuel 10 25 23 92.00 920.00
Cloth 20 75 65 86.67 1733.40
Rent 15 30 30 100.00 1500.00
Misc. 20 40 45 112.50 2250.00
9786.85
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96 STATISTICS FOR ECONOMICS
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INDEX NUMBERS 97
It does not include items pertaining to ‘Core Inflation’ which make up around
services like barber charges, repairing, 55% of the total weight of the wholesale
etc. price index.
What does the statement “WPI with
2004-05 as base is 253 in October, Index of Industrial production
2014” mean? It means that the general Unlike the Consumer Price Index or the
price level has risen by 153 per cent Wholesale Price Index, this is an index
during this period. which tries to measure quantities. With
effect from April 2017, the base year
The Wholesale Price Index is now
has been fixed at 2011-12 = 100. The
being prepared with base 2011-12 = reason for the fast changes in the base
100. The value of the index for May year is that every year a large number of
2017 was 112.8. This index uses the items either stop being manufactured or
prices that are prevailing at the become inconsequential, while many
wholesale level. Only the prices of goods other new items start getting
manufactured.
are included. The main types of goods
While the price indices were
and their weights are as follows: essentially weighted averages of price
Major Groups Weight
relatives, the index of industrial
production is a weighted arithmetic
Primary Articles 22.62
mean of quantity relatives with weights
Fuel and Power 13.15
Manufactured Products 64.23 being allotted to various items in
All Commodities ‘Headline Inflation’ 100.00 proportion to value added by
‘WPI Food Index’ 24.23 manufacture in the base year by using
Source: Ministry of Statistics and
Laspeyre’s formula:
Programme Implementation, 2016-17
∑n
i =1 q1iWi
Usually the data on Wholesale IIP 01 = × 100
Prices is available quickly. The ‘All ∑n
i =1 Wi
Commodities Inflation Rate’ is often
referred to as ‘Headline Inflation’. Where IIP01 is the index, qi1 is the
Sometimes the focus is on food items quantity relative for year 1 with year 0
which comprise 24.23% of the total as base for good i, Wi is the weight
weight. This Food Index is made up of allotted to the good i. There are n goods
Food Articles from the Primary Articles in the production index.
group and Food Products from the The index of Industrial Production
Manufactured Products group. Other is available at the level of Industrial
economists like to focus on the Sectors and sub-sectors. The main
wholesale prices in manufactured branches are ‘Mining’, ‘Manufacturing’
goods (other than food articles and also and ‘Electricity’. Sometimes the focus
excluding fuel) and for this they study is on what are called “core” industries
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98 STATISTICS FOR ECONOMICS
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INDEX NUMBERS 99
investors in the basic health of the and Paasche’s index is the weights used
economy. in these formulae.
• Besides, there are many sources of
5. ISSUES IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF AN data with different degrees of reliability.
INDEX NUMBER Data of poor reliability will give
You should keep certain important issues misleading results. Hence, due care
in mind, while constructing an index should be taken in the collection of data.
number. If primary data are not being used, then
• You need to be clear about the the most reliable source of secondary
purpose of the index. Calculation of a data should be chosen.
volume index will be inappropriate,
Activity
when one needs a value index.
• Besides this, the items are not equally • Collect data from the local
important for different groups of vegetable market over a week for,
consumers when a consumer price at least 10 items. Try to
construct the daily price index
index is constructed. The rise in petrol
for the week. What problems do
price may not directly impact the living you encounter in applying both
condition of the poor agricultural methods for the construction of
labourers. Thus the items to be included a price index?
in any index have to be selected carefully
to be as representative as possible. Only 6. INDEX NUMBER IN ECONOMICS
then you will get a meaningful picture of
Why do we need to use the index
the change.
numbers? Wholesale price index number
• Every index should have a base year. (WPI), consumer price index number
This base year should be as normal as (CPI) and industrial production index
possible. Years having extreme values (IIP) are widely used in policy making.
should not be selected as base year. The • Consumer index number (CPI) or
period should also not belong to too far cost of living index numbers are helpful
in the past. The comparison between in wage negotiation, formulation of
1993 and 2005 is much more income policy, price policy, rent control,
meaningful than a comparison between taxation and general economic policy
1960 and 2005. Many items in a 1960 formulation.
typical consumption basket have • The wholesale price index (WPI) is
disappeared at present. Therefore, the used to eliminate the effect of changes in
base year for any index number is prices on aggregates, such as national
routinely updated. income, capital formation, etc.
• Another issue is the choice of the • The WPI is widely used to measure
formula, which depends on the nature the rate of inflation. Inflation is a general
of question to be studied. The only and continuing increase in prices. If
difference between the Laspeyre’s index inflation becomes sufficiently large,
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100 STATISTICS FOR ECONOMICS
100 Activity
Rs = 0.19 . It means that it is • Check from the newspapers and
526
construct a time series of sensex
worth 19 paise in 1982. If the money
with 10 observations. What
wage of the consumer is Rs 10,000, his
happens when the base of the
real wage will be
consumer price index is shifted
100
Rs 10, 000 × = Rs 1, 901 from 1982 to 2000?
526
It means Rs 1,901 in 1982 has 7. CONCLUSION
the same purchasing power as Rs
10,000 in January, 2005. If he/she Estimating index number enables you
was getting Rs 3,000 in 1982, he/she to calculate a single measure of change
of a large number of items. Index
is worse off due to the rise in price. To
numbers can be calculated for price,
maintain the 1982 standard of living
quantity, volume, etc.
the salary should be raised to Rs It is also clear from the formulae that
15,780 which is obtained by the index numbers need to be interpreted
multiplying the base period salary by carefully. The items to be included and
the factor 526/100. the choice of the base period are
• Index of industrial production gives important. Index numbers are extremely
us a quantitative figure about the change important in policy making as is evident
in production in the industrial sector. by their various uses.
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INDEX NUMBERS 101
Recap
• An index number is a statistical device for measuring relative
change in a large number of items.
• There are several formulae for working out an index number and
every formula needs to be interpreted carefully.
• The choice of formula largely depends on the question of interest.
• Widely used index numbers are wholesale price index, consumer
price index, index of industrial production, agricultural production
index and sensex.
• The index numbers are indispensable in economic policy
making.
EXERCISES
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102 STATISTICS FOR ECONOMICS
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INDEX NUMBERS 103
19. An enquiry into the budgets of the middle class families in a certain
city gave the following information;
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104 STATISTICS FOR ECONOMICS
Biscuits 75 18
Cakes, Pastries 25 18
Branded Garments 100 18
Vacuum Cleaner, Car 1000 28
Activity
• Consult your classteacher to make a list of widely used index
numbers. Get the most recent data indicating the source. Can
you tell what the unit of an index number is?
• Make a table of consumer price index for industrial workers in
the last 10 years and calculate the purchasing power of money.
How is it changing?
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