Cep14 05
Cep14 05
Cep14 05
July 2014
Department of Economics
1125 Colonel By Drive
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
K1S 5B6
A MINIMUM-WAGE MODEL OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND GROWTH:
Department of Economics
Carleton University
1125 Colonel By Drive
Ottawa ON K1S 5B6
Canada
July 2014
Key Words: Optimal growth, Minimum wage, Learning by doing, Involuntary unemployment
1. Introduction
This paper introduces a minimum wage and hence involuntary unemployment into the
infinite horizon, as extended by Srinivasan (1964) to the two-good case. 1 To avoid an inherent
framework, we investigate how a hike in the minimum wage affects employment, growth and
welfare.
Contrary to conventional academic wisdom, our analysis shows that a minimum-wage hike
can increase total employment, because of what may be called a backward-bending demand
curve for labor. Notably, this outcome is possible even though we consider a perfectly
competitive economy, in which firms are wage takers (not setters). 3 This result provides
theoretical support for the controversial findings of Card and Krueger (1995), whose empirical
1
For an alternative approach to modelling growth with unemployment, see Cahuc and Michel
(1996), who add a minimum wage to an overlapping-generations model with only one good
(produced in two technologically different sectors) and three factors of production.
2
As discussed below, the minimum wage fixes (via the conditions for profit maximization) the
interest rate, which then determines the balanced-growth rate (from the household’s Euler
equation). For an alternative solution to the overdetermination problem in the absence of long-
run growth, see Brecher, Chen and Yu (2013).
3
It is well known that with wage-setting firms, minimum wages may increase employment, as
first established by Stigler (1946) in the case of a monopsonist. Alternatively, if firms set wages
optimally for efficiency-wage reasons, Manning (1995) shows that a minimum-wage hike may
lead to a rise in employment. Flinn (2006) obtains this same result when the wage is determined
instead by bargaining in the presence of search and matching frictions.
2
always negatively related to the minimum wage. This result is in consonance with Acemoglu
(2010), who shows (among other things) how exogenous increases in the wage discourage
innovation that raises the marginal product of labor. 5 However, his model does not allow him to
analyze our case in which a higher wage might be associated with more employment.
One might reasonably conjecture that lifetime utility could rise if a hike in the minimum
wage causes employment to increase. Our analysis, however, rejects this conjecture. Thus, any
possible gain in employment must be outweighed by the definite contraction in the rate of
Since the possibility of an employment-expanding hike in the minimum wage is our most
surprising result, here is a brief preview of the underlying intuition. The wage hike lowers both
the rate of return on capital and the growth rate, and hence may reduce the rate of interest net of
growth. In this case, demand shifts from investment to consumption, thereby creating an excess
demand for the consumption good and excess supply of the capital good. If the former good is
4
Empirical surveys by Schmitt (2013) and Neumark, Salas and Wascher (2014) are respectively
favorable and unfavorable to the Card-Krueger position.
5
Whereas our assumptions include learning by doing and optimal saving/investment, he assumes
that firms choose technology optimally, and that the stock of capital (or supply curve for this
factor) is exogenously fixed.
6
Of course, this framework allows us to consider only efficiency, not equity. As shown by
Boadway and Cuff (2001) and Lee and Saez (2012), for example, a minimum wage might
increase welfare for reasons related to interpersonal distribution.
3
Section 2 sets up the basic model, whose implications are explored in Sections 3 and 4 under
numerical example to illustrate the possibility of a backward-bending demand curve for labor.
2. Basic Model
Firms use capital and labor to produce capital itself and consumable output, which are called
goods 1 and 2, respectively. The production function for each good is strictly quasi-concave, and
exhibits constant returns to scale, with positive but diminishing marginal products. Assuming
that firms maximize profits under perfect competition, we obtain the usual first-order conditions
equating the marginal product of labor (capital) to the real wage (rental) rate. The two goods can
be uniquely ranked according to their capital intensities per unit of labor, and there are no factor-
intensity reversals. Although all variables (such as consumption, outputs, inputs, prices, assets,
etc.) are functions of time, the time argument t is supressed for notational simplicity.
of 2; K and represent the economy’s inputs of capital and labor, respectively; λ is the
number of efficiency units per natural unit of labor; and L ≡ λ . Given constant returns to scale,
Qi ( p, K , L) ≡ λ qi ( p, k , ) ≡ λ q i ( p, k ) , i = 1, 2 , (1)
where k ≡ K / λ and k ≡ k / .
To focus on the interesting situation in our two-good model, assume that the economy
remains diversified in production (with both Q1 > 0 and Q 2 > 0 ) throughout the analysis. Then,
4
because a good’s output responds positively to a rise in its relative price, ∂Q1 / ∂p > 0 > ∂Q 2 / ∂p .
where subscripts of functions indicate partial derivatives (e.g., q1p ≡ ∂q1 / ∂p and q1k ≡ ∂q1 / ∂k ).
By the Rybczynski (1955) Theorem, Q1K > 0 > QK2 and Q1L < 0 < QL2 if good 1 is more
capital intensive (per unit of labor) than good 2, whereas the signs of these derivatives are
qki > 0 > qkj , qki > 0 > qkj , qi < 0 < qj iff Ki / Li > K j / L j , i, j = 1, 2 , (3)
where K1 and K 2 are the inputs of capital used by industries 1and 2, respectively, while L1 and
q1k qk2 / p =
pq1p + q 2p = pq1p + q 2p = 0 , q1k + qk2 / p =+ r , pq1 + q2 =
w, (4)
where w is the real wage rate in terms of good 2 per efficiency unit of labor, and r represents
the interest rate, which equals the marginal product of capital in sector 1. The first fact in (4)
holds because the economy operates on the production-possibility frontier at the point where the
marginal rate of transformation equals the product-price ratio. The remaining two facts stem
According to the Stolper-Samuelson (1941) Theorem, a rise in the relative price of a good is
associated with a rise in the real return to the factor used intensively in this good, and a fall in the
dp / dw 0 , dr / dp 0 iff K1 / L1 K 2 / L2 . (5)
5
competitively maximizes the present discounted value of lifetime utility, subject to a budget
∞
V ≡ ∫ e− ρ t ln Cdt , (6)
0
subject to
X =
rX + wλ / p − C / p , (7)
where ρ is the constant rate of time preference; C denotes total consumption (of good 2); the
instantaneous utility function is ln C , for simplicity of exposition; 7 X stands for total wealth in
terms of good 1; and dots over variables indicate time derivatives (e.g., X ≡ dX / dt ).
The only control variable for this maximization problem is C at each point in time.
Although the supply of labor is perfectly inelastic (with no disutility of effort), the household
constraint that fixes the value of w . This value then determines p and hence r, via Samuelson’s
(1949) one-to-one correspondence between product and factor prices. Since the endowment of
∞ ∞
V ≡ ∫ e− ρ t ln cdt + ∫ e− ρ t ln λ dt , (8)
0 0
7
Our main results hold qualitatively for any utility function of the isoelastic form
(C1−θ − 1) / (1 − θ ) ; where the constant θ is greater than zero, and equals the elasticity of the
marginal utility of consumption, as well as the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. As θ → 1 ,
this function approaches ln C , which is the case that we adopt to simplify the exposition. For
reasons explained by Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995, p. 64), an isoelastic type of utility function
is commonly assumed for consistency with a balanced-growth path.
6
subject to
x =(r − g ) x + w / p − c / p ; (9)
where g ≡ λ / λ , which is the economy’s rate of growth due to technical progress of the labor-
augmenting (Harrod-neutral) variety. The current-value Hamilton for this maximization problem
is given by
where the co-state variable µ can be interpreted as the shadow price of assets. The necessary
∂H / ∂c= 1/ c − µ / p= 0 , (11)
µ ρµ − ∂H / ∂=
= x µ (ρ + g − r) , (12)
in addition to the x constraint (9), as well as the usual initial and transversality conditions.
=c q 2 ( p, k , ) ≡ q 2 ( p, k ) . (13)
We also have
K = λ q1 ( p, k , ) , (15)
because all output of good 1 adds to the stock of capital. Then, differentiating k (≡ K / λ ) with
=k q1 ( p, k , ) − gk . (16)
7
Assume that output-based learning by doing occurs in one industry, and spreads
automatically to the other industry, thereby causing (the economy-wide) λ to increase over time.
idea expounded originally by Arrow (1962). The second case could be called learning by
consuming, in the spirit of Leibenstein’s (1957) hypothesis that a worker’s productivity depends
on consumption for nutritional reasons. We now consider each of these two possibilities in turn.
=g q=
1
( p, k , ) q1 ( p, k ) . (17)
µ[ ρ + q1 ( p, k , ) − r ] ,
µ = (18)
and (16) as
In steady-state equilibrium, µ= k= 0 . Then, (18) and (19) imply the following two
equations, respectively:
r= ρ + q1 ( p, k , ) , (20)
and (given q1 > 0 under our above assumption about diversified production)
k = 1. (21)
To determine the relationship between the minimum wage and national employment,
substitute (21) into (20), and differentiate the resulting equation totally with respect to p, thereby
8
yielding
d=
/ dp [dr / dp − q1p ( p,1, )] / q1 ( p,1, ) . (22)
Multiply both sides of (22) by dp / dw , and use (3) with (5) to derive
PROPOSITION 1: A hike in the minimum wage increases the steady-state level of employment
if and only if a rise in the relative price of the capital good (ceteris paribus) has a smaller impact
The necessary and sufficient condition in (23) may be satisfied if good 1 is capital
intensive, since (2) and (5) imply that q1p and dr / dp are both greater than zero in this case. 8
However, under the opposite factor-intensity ranking, dr / dp is less than zero, in which case the
(necessary and sufficient) condition in (23) cannot be satisfied. Thus, Proposition 1 describes a
capital. Then, a minimum-wage hike lowers p, leading to a fall in r and—at the initial level of
employment—a drop in g [= q1 ( p,1, )] . If r falls more than g, there is a reduction in the net rate
of return r − g on capital per efficiency unit. 9 This reduction tends to discourage saving and
hence encourage consumption. In fact, with employment held constant temporarily, c rises more
8
As the elasticity of technical substitution (along an isoquant) approaches zero for both goods,
than q 2 ( p,1, ) , creating an excess demand for good 2. 10 To clear this excess demand for the
To determine the relationship between w and c, begin by using (12) and (16) with (1), while
totally with respect to p—while using (4), (17) and (20)—confirm that
2 dr / dp ) / ( g − q1 ) .
( ρ pq1p kq
dq 2 / dp =− k k
The numerator of this expression is positive because q1p > 0 by (2), while (3) and (5) imply
that qk2 and dr / dp are always opposite in sign, no matter what the factor-intensity ranking of
the two goods. The denominator is positive or negative if good 1 is intensive in labor or capital,
This condition and (13) imply the following result relating dc / dw and d / dw .
PROPOSITION 2: If (but not only if) a hike in the minimum wage raises the steady-state level
x < 0 , X / λ (=+
x xg ) < q1 (since g = q1 and initially x= k= 1 ), implying X < Q1 . In light of
this inequality and the instantaneous budget constraint ( pX + C= pQ1 + Q 2 ), clearly C > Q 2 ,
indicating an excess demand for good 2.
11
In the former case, q1k < 0 by (3). In the latter case, set µ = 0 in (12) and use (4), to yield
q1k = r − qk2 / p > r = ρ + g > g ; where the first inequality follows from the fact that now qk2 < 0 .
10
To see the minimum wage’s impact on the rate of growth, set µ = 0 in (12) and use this
PROPOSITION 3: A hike in the minimum wage unambiguously lowers the steady-state rate of
growth.
the phase diagram for the dynamic system of (18) and (19). For the sake of concreteness,
suppose that the capital good is capital intensive, although the stability analysis would be
The schedule for k = 0 is a horizontal line at a height equal to 1, because of (21). The
> <
vertical arrows of motion point toward this line, to reflect the fact that k = 0 as k =1 , in
< >
accordance with (19). By the following argument, the (generally non-linear) schedule for µ = 0
is negatively sloped, and is associated with horizontal arrows that point away from it.
To determine the sign of this schedule’s slope, differentiate (20) totally with respect to µ
=dk / d µ ( pq1 / µ 2 q2 ) / (q1k − q1 qk2 / q2 ) . With this equation, use (4) to find that
dk / d µ =
( w − pq1 ) pq1 / ( wq1k − rpq1 ) µ 2 q2 < 0 ; where this inequality follows from the signs of
the Rybczynski derivatives in (3). In other words the schedule for µ = 0 is negatively sloped.
Starting from any point on this schedule, an increase in µ (at constant k ) would lower by
(14) and (3), thus raising output of capital-intensive good 1. The resulting increase in q1 would
11
make µ > 0 , in accordance with (18). Therefore, the horizontal arrows point away from the
schedule for µ = 0 .
Beginning at any arbitrary point in Figure 1, µ jumps instantaneously at time 0 to reach the
saddle path, represented by the dashed curve (generally non-linear). Then, the economy moves
continuously along this path toward the steady-state equilibrium, which corresponds to point S at
Let the schedules in Figure 1 correspond to the situation after a hike in the minimum wage.
Suppose also that the pre-hike economy is in steady-state equilibrium at point A, which must be
Then, the wage hike causes the economy to jump (via an instant change in µ ) to the new
Proposition 4: A hike in the minimum wage causes the economy to jump immediately from the
Thus, the corresponding changes in total employment, aggregate consumption and economic
growth (as described by Propositions 1, 2 and 3, respectively) all occur simultaneously with the
A possible rise in c (by Proposition 2) and definite fall in g (by Proposition 3) would affect
lifetime utility positively and negatively, respectively, since (8) can be rewritten as
∞ ∞
V ≡ ∫ e− ρ t ln cdt + ∫ e− ρ t ln(λ0e gt )dt = ln λ0 / ρ + ln c / ρ + g / ρ 2 , (25)
0 0
where c and g remain constant at their steady-state levels, while λ0 represents the value of λ at
the instant when the wage hike occurs. However, regardless of whether the decrease in g is
12
PROPOSITION 5: A hike in the minimum wage definitely lowers the level of lifetime utility.
=g q=
2
( p, k , ) q 2 ( p, k ) . (26)
Proposition 3 and condition (24) still hold, because they are derived without the use of (17).
Thus, a minimum-wage hike lowers by (26) and reduces c by (13), contrary to Propositions 1
and 2, respectively.
equilibrium remains saddle-path stable, although the schedules for k = 0 and µ = 0 become
negatively sloped and vertically linear, respectively. These schedule modifications imply that a
hike in the minimum wage changes the steady-state level of k . Thus, rather than switching
instantly between steady-state equilibria, the economy first jumps from the initial equilibrium to
the new saddle path, and then follows this path over time toward the new equilibrium.
it is possible (but tedious) to verify that Proposition 5 remains valid if the wage hike is small.
Whether this proposition similarly extends for a large hike is a technically challenging question
for future research. The challenge arises from the facts that the transition between steady states is
not instant in the present (unlike the previous) case, and the precise shape of the saddle path is
5. Numerical Analysis
This section provides a numerical example of the case in which a minimum-wage hike
increases the level of employment, assuming (for reasons suggested above) that technological
progress occurs through learning by doing in the capital-good sector, and that the consumption
good is relatively labor intensive. An important by-product of this exercise is to demonstrate the
existence of a unique steady-state equilibrium in our model, for each value of the wage within a
specified range. Starting from a position of full employment in the present example, successive
hikes in the minimum wage first decrease but then increase employment, illustrating what we
To construct our example, we adopt a CES type of production function for each industry.
σ σ 1/σ i σ 1/σ
Yi [ai Ki i + (1 − ai ) (λ i ) i ]
= = λ i (ai ki i + 1 − ai ) i , i = 1, 2 , (27)
where Yi and i (≡ Li / λ ) , respectively, denote output produced and (natural units of) labor
Given constant returns to scale and perfect competition, we can think of a representative
firm in each industry. Subject to (27), this firm chooses Ki and i to maximize profits, given by
12
Of course, this curve is a general-equilibrium (rather than Marshallian) one.
14
where ω ≡ w / p ,which represents the real wage in terms of good 1; 13 pi is the nominal price of
good i; and p1 ≡ 1 by choice of units (implying that ω and r, respectively, are also equal to the
wage and rental rates in nominal terms). The first-order conditions for profit maximization are
σ −1 σ 1/σ −1
ki i (ai ki i +1
pi ai − ai ) i =r , i = 1, 2 , (29)
σ 1/σ −1
pi (1 − ai ) (ai ki i
+1 − ai ) i =ω , i = 1, 2 . (30)
Using (29) and (30) for sector 1 (while recalling that p1 ≡ 1 by normalization), obtain the
σ 1/σ −1
= a1[ a1 + ( − a1 ) / k1 1 ] 1 ,
r 1 (31)
σ σ /(1−σ1 )
k1 1
= {[ω / (1 − a1 )] 1 − (1 − a1 )} / a1 . (32)
1/(1−σ 2 )
=k2 [(ω / r )a2 / (1 − a2 )] . (33)
In light of (31) – (33), the rental rate and capital/labor ratios in both sectors are each a function of
ω.
From growth definition (17), Euler equation (20) and production function (27) for sector 1,
σ 1/σ
= ( r − ρ ) / (a1 k1 1 +1 − a1 ) 1 ,
1 (34)
which is a function of ω (via r and k1 ). Then, ω also determines each of the remaining
13
Although it is natural to specify the minimum wage in terms of the consumption good (as in
previous sections), here both factor rewards ( ω and r) are expressed in terms of the same
(capital-good) units, for expositional convenience. Since the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem
implies that d ω / dw > 0 , ω can be used as a proxy for w, without loss of generality.
15
Figure 2 illustrates the wage-employment relationship for the following parameter values:
backward-bending demand curve for labor is indeed possible. 15 Along the positively sloped
portion of this curve, a hike in the minimum wage leads to an increase in employment for the
economy as a whole.
6. Conclusion
Our main contribution is a new mechanism whereby a minimum-wage hike can stimulate
total employment and hence reduce involuntary unemployment. This mechanism operates
within a standard two-sector model of optimal saving/investment, with endogenous growth due
to learning by doing. In this model, a hike in the minimum wage may reduce the net rate of
interest adjusted for growth, thereby creating an excess demand for the consumption good. If
this good is relatively labor intensive, total employment must rise to restore equilibrium, along a
backward-bending demand curve for labor. Regardless of what actually happens to employment,
14
These particular values are chosen for diagrammatic clarity only, without full-blown
Above the curve’s upper bound, the interest rate would be less than the rate of time preference,
implying (absurdly) a negative output of good 1 in (20). Although Minhas (1962) shows that
factor-intensity reversal must occur at some wage/rental ratio when constant elasticities of
technical substitution differ between industries, the first good in the present example is always
more capital intensive than the second between the above-mentioned bounds.
16
we also show that the minimum-wage hike has negative implications for both the growth rate
Appendix
From (25),
dV / dp (dc / dp ) / c ρ + (dg / dp ) / ρ 2 .
= (A1)
After differentiating (13) totally with respect to p, use (4), (21) and (22) to obtain
=
dc / dp (q2 dr / dp − wq1p ) / q1 . (A2)
dg / dp = dr / dp . (A3)
Note that
because the ratio of Rybczynski derivatives for labor equals the ratio of average products for
k1 + k2 =
1. (A6)
Substitute (A5) and (A6) into (A4), multiply both sides of the resulting equation by dp / dw , and
Since the average product of each factor exceeds its marginal product,
16
See Brecher’s (1974) discussion of the slope of the well-known Rybczynski line, introduced
earlier by Mundell (1957).
18
q1 / k1 > r . (A8)
From (5),
dr / dw < 0 . (A9)
dV / dw < 0 . (A11)
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S A
k = 0
µ = 0
µ
Figure 1: Phase Diagram
23