Main menu















Search
Create account
 Log in
Personal tools



Contents

hide

(Top)


Uses


Scientific hypothesis


Working hypothesis


Hypotheses, concepts and measurement
Toggle Hypotheses, concepts and measurement subsection
o
Statistical hypothesis testing


Honours
 
List


See also


References


Bibliography


External links

Hypothesis
96 languages
 Article
 Talk
 Read
 View source
 View history
Tools


















Appearance
hide
Text


Small
Standard
 Large
Width


Standard
Wide

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

(Redirected from Hypotheses)
For other uses, see Hypothesis (disambiguation) and Hypothetical (disambiguation).

The hypothesis of Andreas

Cellarius, showing the planetary motions in eccentric and epicyclical orbits
A hypothesis (pl.: hypotheses) is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. For a
hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one
can test it. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on
previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available
scientific theories. Even though the words "hypothesis" and "theory" are often used
interchangeably, a scientific hypothesis is not the same as a scientific theory.
A working hypothesis is a provisionally accepted hypothesis proposed for
further research[1] in a process beginning with an educated guess or thought.[2]

A different meaning of the term hypothesis is used in formal logic, to denote

the antecedent of a proposition; thus in the proposition "If P, then Q", P denotes the
hypothesis (or antecedent); Q can be called a consequent. P is the assumption in a
(possibly counterfactual) What If question. The adjective hypothetical, meaning
"having the nature of a hypothesis", or "being assumed to exist as an immediate
consequence of a hypothesis", can refer to any of these meanings of the term
"hypothesis".

Uses
In its ancient usage, hypothesis referred to a summary of the plot of a classical
drama. The English word hypothesis comes from the ancient
Greek word ὑπόθεσις hypothesis whose literal or etymological sense is "putting or
placing under" and hence in extended use has many other meanings including
"supposition".[1][3][4][5]

In Plato's Meno (86e–87b), Socrates dissects virtue with a method used by

mathematicians,[6] that of "investigating from a hypothesis".[7] In this sense,
'hypothesis' refers to a clever idea or to a convenient mathematical approach that
simplifies cumbersome calculations.[8] Cardinal Bellarmine gave a famous example of
this usage in the warning issued to Galileo in the early 17th century: that he must not
treat the motion of the Earth as a reality, but merely as a hypothesis. [9]

In common usage in the 21st century, a hypothesis refers to a provisional idea

whose merit requires evaluation. For proper evaluation, the framer of a hypothesis
needs to define specifics in operational terms. A hypothesis requires more work by
the researcher in order to either confirm or disprove it. In due course, a confirmed
hypothesis may become part of a theory or occasionally may grow to become a
theory itself. Normally, scientific hypotheses have the form of a mathematical model.
[10]
Sometimes, but not always, one can also formulate them as existential
statements, stating that some particular instance of the phenomenon under
examination has some characteristic and causal explanations, which have the
general form of universal statements, stating that every instance of the phenomenon
has a particular characteristic.

In entrepreneurial setting, a hypothesis is used to formulate provisional ideas about

the attributes of products or business models. The formulated hypothesis is then
evaluated, where the hypothesis is proven to be either "true" or "false" through
a verifiability- or falsifiability-oriented experiment.[11][12]

Any useful hypothesis will enable predictions by reasoning (including deductive

reasoning). It might predict the outcome of an experiment in a laboratory setting or
the observation of a phenomenon in nature. The prediction may also invoke statistics
and only talk about probabilities. Karl Popper, following others, has argued that a
hypothesis must be falsifiable, and that one cannot regard a proposition or theory as
scientific if it does not admit the possibility of being shown to be false. Other
philosophers of science have rejected the criterion of falsifiability or supplemented it
with other criteria, such as verifiability (e.g., verificationism) or coherence
(e.g., confirmation holism). The scientific method involves experimentation to test the
ability of some hypothesis to adequately answer the question under investigation. In
contrast, unfettered observation is not as likely to raise unexplained issues or open
questions in science, as would the formulation of a crucial experiment to test the
hypothesis. A thought experiment might also be used to test the hypothesis.

In framing a hypothesis, the investigator must not currently know the outcome of a
test or that it remains reasonably under continuing investigation. Only in such cases
does the experiment, test or study potentially increase the probability of showing the
truth of a hypothesis.[13]: pp17, 49–50 If the researcher already knows the outcome, it counts
as a "consequence" — and the researcher should have already considered this while
formulating the hypothesis. If one cannot assess the predictions by observation or
by experience, the hypothesis needs to be tested by others providing observations.
For example, a new technology or theory might make the necessary experiments
feasible.
Scientific hypothesis
A trial solution to a problem is commonly referred to as a hypothesis—or, often, as
an "educated guess"[14][2]—because it provides a suggested outcome based on the
evidence. However, some scientists reject the term "educated guess" as incorrect.
Experimenters may test and reject several hypotheses before solving the problem.

According to Schick and Vaughn,[15] researchers weighing up alternative hypotheses

may take into consideration:

 Testability (compare falsifiability as discussed above)

 Parsimony (as in the application of "Occam's razor", discouraging the
postulation of excessive numbers of entities)
 Scope – the apparent applicability of the hypothesis to multiple
known phenomena
 Fruitfulness – the prospect that the hypothesis may explain further
phenomena in the future
 Conservatism – the degree of "fit" with existing recognized knowledge-
systems.
Working hypothesis
Main article: Working hypothesis
A working hypothesis is a hypothesis that is provisionally accepted as a basis for
further research[16] in the hope that a tenable theory will be produced, even if the
hypothesis ultimately fails.[17] Like all hypotheses, a working hypothesis is constructed
as a statement of expectations, which can be linked to the exploratory
research purpose in empirical investigation. Working hypotheses are often used as
a conceptual framework in qualitative research.[18][19]

The provisional nature of working hypotheses makes them useful as an organizing

device in applied research. Here they act like a useful guide to address problems
that are still in a formative phase.[20]

In recent years, philosophers of science have tried to integrate the various

approaches to evaluating hypotheses, and the scientific method in general, to form a
more complete system that integrates the individual concerns of each approach.
Notably, Imre Lakatos and Paul Feyerabend, Karl Popper's colleague and student,
respectively, have produced novel attempts at such a synthesis.

Hypotheses, concepts and measurement

Concepts in Hempel's deductive-nomological model play a key role in the
development and testing of hypotheses. Most formal hypotheses connect concepts
by specifying the expected relationships between propositions. When a set of
hypotheses are grouped together, they become a type of conceptual framework.
When a conceptual framework is complex and incorporates causality or explanation,
it is generally referred to as a theory. According to noted philosopher of science Carl
Gustav Hempel,
 An adequate empirical interpretation turns a theoretical system into a testable
theory: The hypothesis whose constituent terms have been interpreted
become capable of test by reference to observable phenomena. Frequently
the interpreted hypothesis will be derivative hypotheses of the theory; but their
confirmation or disconfirmation by empirical data will then immediately
strengthen or weaken also the primitive hypotheses from which they were
derived.[21]: 36
Hempel provides a useful metaphor that describes the relationship between
a conceptual framework and the framework as it is observed and perhaps tested
(interpreted framework). "The whole system floats, as it were, above the plane of
observation and is anchored to it by rules of interpretation. These might be
viewed as strings which are not part of the network but link certain points of the
latter with specific places in the plane of observation. By virtue of those
interpretative connections, the network can function as a scientific theory." [21]:
36
Hypotheses with concepts anchored in the plane of observation are ready to be
tested. In "actual scientific practice the process of framing a theoretical structure
and of interpreting it are not always sharply separated, since the intended
interpretation usually guides the construction of the theoretician".[21]: 33 It is,
however, "possible and indeed desirable, for the purposes of logical clarification,
to separate the two steps conceptually".[21]: 33

Statistical hypothesis testing

Main article: Statistical hypothesis testing
When a possible correlation or similar relation between phenomena is
investigated, such as whether a proposed remedy is effective in treating a
disease, the hypothesis that a relation exists cannot be examined the same way
one might examine a proposed new law of nature. In such an investigation, if the
tested remedy shows no effect in a few cases, these do not necessarily falsify
the hypothesis. Instead, statistical tests are used to determine how likely it is that
the overall effect would be observed if the hypothesized relation does not exist. If
that likelihood is sufficiently small (e.g., less than 1%), the existence of a relation
may be assumed. Otherwise, any observed effect may be due to pure chance.

In statistical hypothesis testing, two hypotheses are compared. These are called
the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis. The null hypothesis is the
hypothesis that states that there is no relation between the phenomena whose
relation is under investigation, or at least not of the form given by the alternative
hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis, as the name suggests, is the alternative
to the null hypothesis: it states that there is some kind of relation. The alternative
hypothesis may take several forms, depending on the nature of the hypothesized
relation; in particular, it can be two-sided (for example: there is some effect, in a
yet unknown direction) or one-sided (the direction of the hypothesized relation,
positive or negative, is fixed in advance).[22]

Conventional significance levels for testing hypotheses (acceptable probabilities

of wrongly rejecting a true null hypothesis) are .10, .05, and .01. The significance
level for deciding whether the null hypothesis is rejected and the alternative
hypothesis is accepted must be determined in advance, before the observations
are collected or inspected. If these criteria are determined later, when the data to
be tested are already known, the test is invalid.[23]

The above procedure is actually dependent on the number of the participants

(units or sample size) that are included in the study. For instance, to avoid having
the sample size be too small to reject a null hypothesis, it is recommended that
one specify a sufficient sample size from the beginning. It is advisable to define a
small, medium and large effect size for each of a number of important statistical
tests which are used to test the hypotheses.[24]

Honours
Mount Hypothesis in Antarctica is named in appreciation of the role of hypothesis
in scientific research.

List
Main category: Hypotheses
Several hypotheses have been put forth, in different subject areas:

 Astronomical hypotheses
 Authorship debates
 Biological hypotheses
 Documentary hypothesis
 Hypothetical documents
 Hypothetical impact events
 Hypothetical laws
 Linguistic theories and hypotheses
 Meteorological hypotheses
 Hypothetical objects
 Origin hypotheses of ethnic groups
 Hypothetical processes
 Hypothetical spacecraft
 Statistical hypothesis testing
 Hypothetical technology
See also

Wikisource has the text of the 1911 Encyclopædia Britannica article "Hypothesis".

 Axiom
 Bold hypothesis
 Case study
 Conjecture
 Explanandum
 Hypothesis theory – a research area in cognitive psychology
 Hypothetical question
  Logical positivism
 Operationalization
 Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica – for Newton's position
on hypotheses
 Reductionism
 Research design
 Sociology of scientific knowledge
 Theorem#Hypothesis
 Thesis statement
References
1. ^ Jump up to:a b Hilborn, Ray; Mangel, Marc (1997). The ecological
detective: confronting models with data. Princeton University Press.
p. 24. ISBN 978-0-691-03497-3. Retrieved 22 August 2011.
2. ^ Jump up to:a b "In general we look for a new law by the following
process. First we guess it. ...", —Richard Feynman (1965) The Character
of Physical Law p.156
3. ^ Supposition is itself a Latinate analogue of hypothesis as both are
compound words constructed from words meaning respectively "under,
below" and "place, placing, putting" in either language, Latin or Greek.
4. ^ Harper, Douglas. "hypothesis". Online Etymology Dictionary.
5. ^ ὑπόθεσις. Liddell, Henry George; Scott, Robert; A Greek–English
Lexicon at the Perseus Project.
6. ^ Wilbur R. Knorr, "Construction as existence proof in ancient geometry",
p. 125, as selected by Jean Christianidis (ed.), Classics in the history of
Greek mathematics, Kluwer.
7. ^ Gregory Vlastos, Myles Burnyeat (1994) Socratic studies,
Cambridge ISBN 0-521-44735-6, p. 1
8. ^ "Neutral hypotheses, those of which the subject matter can never be
directly proved or disproved, are very numerous in all sciences."
— Morris Cohen and Ernest Nagel (1934) An introduction to logic and
scientific method p. 375. New York: Harcourt, Brace, and Company.
9. ^ "Bellarmine (Ital. Bellarmino), Roberto Francesco
Romolo", Encyclopædia Britannica, Eleventh Edition.: 'Bellarmine did not
proscribe the Copernican system ... all he claimed was that it should be
presented as a hypothesis until it should receive scientific
demonstration.' This article incorporates text from a publication now in
the public domain: Chisholm, Hugh, ed. (1911).
"Hypothesis". Encyclopædia Britannica. Vol. 14 (11th ed.). Cambridge
University Press. p. 208.
10. ^ Crease, Robert P. (2008) The Great Equations ISBN 978-0-393-06204-
5, p.112 lists the conservation of energy as an example of accounting
a constant of motion. Hypothesized by Sadi Carnot, truth demonstrated
by James Prescott Joule, proven by Emmy Noether.
11. ^ Blank, Steve (May 2013). "Harvard Business Review (2013) "Why
Lean Startup Changes Everything"". Harvard Business
Review. Archived from the original on 2021-10-28. Retrieved 2015-07-
16.
12. ^ "Lean Startup Circle "What is Lean Startup?"". Archived from the
original on 2015-07-16. Retrieved 2015-07-16.
13. ^ Popper 1959
 14. ^ "When it is not clear under which law of nature an effect or class of
effect belongs, we try to fill this gap by means of a guess. Such guesses
have been given the name conjectures or hypotheses.", Hans Christian
Ørsted(1811) "First Introduction to General Physics" ¶18. Selected
Scientific Works of Hans Christian Ørsted, ISBN 0-691-04334-5 p.297
15. ^ Schick, Theodore; Vaughn, Lewis (2002). How to think about weird
things: critical thinking for a New Age. Boston: McGraw-Hill Higher
Education. ISBN 0-7674-2048-9.
16. ^ Oxford Dictionary of Sports Science & Medicine. Eprint Archived 2011-
11-27 at the Wayback Machine via Answers.com.
17. ^ See in "hypothesis", Century Dictionary Supplement, v. 1, 1909, New
York: The Century Company. Reprinted, v. 11, p. 616 (via Internet
Archive) of the Century Dictionary and Cyclopedia, 1911.
hypothesis [...]—Working hypothesis, a hypothesis suggested or
supported in some measure by features of observed facts, from which
consequences may be deduced which can be tested by experiment and
special observations, and which it is proposed to subject to an extended
course of such investigation, with the hope that, even should the
hypothesis thus be overthrown, such research may lead to a tenable
theory.

18. ^ Patricia M. Shields, Hassan Tajalli (2006). "Intermediate Theory: The

Missing Link in Successful Student Scholarship". Journal of Public Affairs
Education. 12 (3): 313–
334. doi:10.1080/15236803.2006.12001438. S2CID 141201197.
19. ^ Patricia M. Shields (1998). "Pragmatism As a Philosophy of Science: A
Tool For Public Administration". In Jay D. White (ed.). Research in Public
Administration. Vol. 4. Emerald Group Publishing Limited. pp. 195–225
[211]. ISBN 1-55938-888-9.
20. ^ Patricia M. Shields and Nandhini Rangarajan. 2013. A Playbook for
Research Methods: Integrating Conceptual Frameworks and Project
Management[permanent dead link]. Stillwater, OK: New Forums Press. pp. 109–157
21. ^ Jump up to:a b c d Hempel, C. G. (1952). Fundamentals of Concept
Formation in Empirical Science. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
22. ^ Altman. DG., Practical Statistics for Medical Research, CRC Press,
1990, Section 8.5,
23. ^ Mellenbergh, G.J.(2008). Chapter 8: Research designs: Testing of
research hypotheses. In H.J. Adèr & G.J. Mellenbergh (eds.) (with
contributions by D.J. Hand), Advising on Research Methods: A
consultant's companion (pp. 183–209). Huizen, The Netherlands:
Johannes van Kessel Publishing
24. ^ Altman. DG., Practical Statistics for Medical Research, CRC Press,
1990, Section 15.3,

Bibliography
 Popper, Karl R. (1959), The Logic of Scientific Discovery 1934, 1959.
External links
 The dictionary definition of hypothesis at Wiktionary
 Learning materials related to Hypothesis at Wikiversity
 Media related to Hypotheses at Wikimedia Commons
  "How science works", Understanding Science by the University of
California Museum of Paleontology.
hide
Authority control databases

 Germany
 Japan
 Czech Republic

 Encyclopedia of Modern Ukraine

Categories:
 Hypotheses
 Philosophy of science
 Scientific method
 Guessing
 This page was last edited on 15 June 2024, at 15:46 (UTC).
 Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 4.0; additional terms
may apply. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Wikipedia® is a
registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation, Inc., a non-profit organization.
 Privacy policy

 About Wikipedia

 Disclaimers

 Contact Wikipedia

 Code of Conduct

 Developers

 Statistics

 Cookie statement

 Mobile view