Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024 A083b6dcd5

Global Market
Outlook
For Solar Power 2024-2028
www.solarpowereurope.org
FOCUS ON CHINA
Supported by:
Foreword
Welcome to the Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2024-2028.

For an established sector like solar, approaching double growth in one year was simply not part of any analyst’s script.
But it happened in 2023. The world deployed 447 GW of new solar PV capacity last year; an incredible 87% more than
2022 and achieving a growth rate we haven’t seen since 2010, when the global solar market was only 4% of today’s size.
In last year’s Global Market Outlook, we actually did anticipate growth for several reasons, but not as high as what was
achieved. At that time, a very strong growth in global manufacturing capacities was already visible, making products
available again after the pressures of the pandemic and energy crisis. This, of course, also brought overcapacity –
effectively doubling supply against demand. Resulting price drops triggered by hefty competition from all these new
capacities was expected as well (though not at the severity the industry eventually experienced). In fact, our growth
forecast for all global markets combined, other than China, was nearly spot on – we deviated only by 3% absolute.
The accuracy and value of the annual Global Market Outlook for Solar Power would not be possible without the industry
stakeholders and all national and regional solar industry associations that provide their input and expertise each year.
We would like to extend our gratitude to those experts and their organisations in supporting our mapping and
modelling work, and particularly those from the 31 annual GW-scale solar markets that wrote in-depth features of
their home markets for this year’s edition (see p. 81).
However, the market that is continually difficult to anticipate remains to be China, the world’s largest solar market by far, which
boomed by 167% in a single year. This country alone was responsible for 57% of global installed capacity in 2023, adding a
quarter of a TW, basically the same amount that the entire world had deployed in the previous year. The massive price collapses
of around 50% for modules in 2023 alone triggered unforeseen growth, driven by price elasticity on the demand side. To better
understand solar developments in China, this year’s report covers the country in a dedicated chapter, provided by the Global
Solar Council and its partner the Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association (CREIA) (see p. 61).
So, what’s in store for solar this year and beyond? For the supply side, the PV manufacturing industry will continue to
suffer from record-low prices and overcapacities – how long will depend on the consolidation speed in the sector. The
demand side will further benefit from low product prices that will stay a main driver in a difficult macro-economic
environment. We will see the climate emergency continuing to capture governments’ attention and energy security
remaining the new compelling argument to invest in solar power in a quickly fragmenting world order. Further driven by
cost improvements and the numerous benefits the technology provides, we have increased our most likely outlook to
544 GW in 2024, based on a 22% YoY growth, and low two-digit improvements to an annual market of 876 GW in 2028.
We have been hearing doubts from many analysts if solar can grow much beyond today’s annual installation levels.
While obviously there will be an eventual limit, we don’t foresee this any time soon. Who would have thought that
only a year ago that China would install over 250 GW last year? Nobody! We should also remember, solar’s share in
global electricity generation was only at 5.5% in 2023, China’s installed watt per capita was 460 W/c, and MEA on
average only 27 W/c, compared to 1,359 W/c in Australia – there’s clearly quite some room to grow. For the first time
in our five-year forecasting period, our High Scenario is touching an annual TW deployment rate in 2028.
While the PV industry is ready for more, it now hinges on policymakers creating the right legal frameworks to enable
solar in unfolding its full potential. That’s why, for the first time, this edition contains policy recommendations from solar’s
global industry organisation, the Global Solar Council (see p. 57). This includes asks for setting ambitious national targets,
and immediate efforts to unleash the flexibility revolution by scaling up investments in battery storage, grids, and
electrification. We also urgently need diversification – on both the supply and demand side, and plenty of financing.
To the sector’s gratification, the recent IEA World Energy Investment 2024 report revealed that investment in solar
surpassed all other generation technologies combined. However, there remains severe disparity in global renewable
investment flows. Two thirds of the world’s population, living in emerging and developing economies outside China, only
received 15% of global investment. Last year’s COP saw world leaders committing to triple world renewables by 2030 to
achieve 11 TW, and this year’s COP29 must accordingly set the finance plan for the transition for the countries most in
need. The climate crisis, and breaching 1.5⁰C warming, is barrelling toward us like a freight train. We hope this year’s Global
Market Outlook supports the solar sector in building a new track toward more sustainable and secure prosperity for all.
Enjoy reading our Global Market Outlook.
MICHAEL SCHMELA
WALBURGA Executive Advisor
HEMETSBERGER and Director of SONIA DUNLOP
CEO, SolarPower Market Intelligence, CEO, Global Solar
Europe SolarPower Europe Council
3
Table of contents
Foreword 3
Executive summary 6
1 Global solar market 12
Update 2000-2023 17
Prospects 2024-2028 35
Segments 2023-2028 49
Solar outlook to 2030 52
2 Policy recommendations – by GSC 57
3 Focus: China solar PV market – by GSC 61
4 GW-scale markets 81
Project Lead: Michael Schmela, SolarPower Europe.

Project manager: Raffaele Rossi, SolarPower Europe.
Market intelligence and internal co-authors: Antonio Arruebo, Jonathan Gorremans, Leah Le Pénuizic, Christophe Lits, Raffaele Rossi, & Michael Schmela,
SolarPower Europe.
External co-authors: Abdallah Alshamali, Global Solar Council (GSC); Steve Blume, Smart Energy Council (SEC); Rodrigo Lopes Sauaia & Rafael Francisco Marques,
Brazilian Photovoltaic Solar Energy Association (ABSOLAR); David Rau, Chilean Solar Association (ACESOL); Chinese Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA);
Subrahmanyam Pulipaka & Shubhang Parekh, National Solar Energy Federation of India (NSEFI); Takeaki Masukawa, Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association
(JPEA); Nelson R. Delgado Contreras, Mexican Association of Solar Energy (Asolmex); Waqas Moosa, Pakistan Solar Association (PSA); Tannishtha Das & Hinde
Liepmannsohn, Middle East Solar Industry Association (MESIA); De Wet Taljaard, South African PV Industry Association (SAPVIA); Donggun Lim, Korea National
University of Transportation; David Stickelberger, Swissolar; ShuYu Yang, Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) & Daniel Lee, Taiwan Photovoltaic Industry
Association (TPVIA); Turkish Solar Energy Association (GÜNDER); Gareth Simkins, Solar Energy UK; Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA).
External contributors: PV Austria (AT); PV-Vlaanderen & EDORA (BE); APSTE (BG); Solární Asociace (CZ); BSW-Solar (DE); European Energy, Green Power Denmark
& DPVA (DK); HELAPCO (EL); UNEF (ES); SER (FR); OIE (HR); MANAP (HU); GEA-IL (IL); ISEA (IR); ANIE Rinnovabili, Elettricità Futura & Italia Solare (IT); LSEA (LT);
Holland Solar (NL); PSF & PV Poland (PL); APREN (PT); RPIA (RO); Svensk Solenergi (SE); ZSFV (SI).
Supported by: Intersolar Europe, Global Solar Council (GSC).
Please cite as: SolarPower Europe (2024): Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2024-2028.
For media use and queries: Bethany Meban, SolarPower Europe, [email protected].
Date of publication: June 2024.
ISBN: 9789464669169.
Thanks to our sponsor members:
Design: Onehemisphere AB, Sweden. [email protected]

Contact: [email protected].
Methodology: SolarPower Europe’s five-year forecast consists of Low, Medium and High Scenarios. The Medium scenario anticipates the most likely
development given the current state of play of the market. The Low Scenario forecast is based on the assumption that policymakers halt solar support and
other issues arise, including interest rate hikes and severe financial crisis situations. Conversely, the High Scenario forecasts the best optimal case in which
policy support, financial conditions and other factors are enhanced.
Segmentation is based on the following system size: Residential (<10 kW); Commercial (<250 kW); Industrial (<1000 kW); Utility-scale (>1000 kW, ground-
mounted). SolarPower Europe’s methodology includes only grid-connected systems. Installed capacity is always expressed in DC, unless otherwise stated.
All figures are based on SolarPower Europe’s best knowledge at the time of publication.
Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by SolarPower Europe. It is being furnished to the recipients for general information only. Nothing in it should be
interpreted as an offer or recommendation of any products, services or financial products. This report does not constitute technical, investment, legal, tax or
any other advice. Recipients should consult with their own technical, financial, legal, tax or other advisors as needed. This report is based on sources believed
to be accurate. However, SolarPower Europe does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this report. SolarPower Europe
assumes no obligation to update any information contained herein. SolarPower Europe will not be held liable for any direct or indirect damage incurred by the
use of the information provided and will not provide any indemnities. Unless otherwise stated, the copyright and other intellectual property rights of market
intelligence data and resources provided are owned by SolarPower Europe.
4 Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024-2028

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Executive summary
300 MW fishery-solar plant, Shandong, China. © Huawei
In 2023, the world grid-connected 447 GW of new percentage points from the 66% contributed in 2022
solar capacity, which, once again, dominated the and 22 percentage points more than the 56% in 2021.
newly added global power generation capacity. Solar This new record confirms solar’s role as an established
PV accounted for 78% out of 576 GW of new and still rising leader of the global energy transition,
renewable capacity added last year. Solar’s share of installing over three times more capacity than all other
new renewable capacity increased considerably, up 12 renewable technologies combined.
FIGURE 1 NET RENEWABLE POWER GENERATING CAPACITY INSTALLED IN 2023
Other RE: 1 GW, 0.2%

Biomass: 4 GW, 0.8%
Hydro: 7 GW, 1.2%
Wind: 117 GW, 20%
576 GW
Solar: 447 GW, 78%
SOURCES: GWEC (2024), IRENA (2024), SolarPower Europe. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

The 447 GW of new solar capacity broke any previous In addition, the effects of the 2022 global energy crisis
record and far exceeded any solar analyst’s continued to stimulate demand across various
expectations, marking an extraordinary 87% growth regions. Governments, individuals, and businesses
rate (see Fig. 2). This compares to 2022’s addition of turned to solar power as a reliable and cost-effective
239 GW and 46% year-on-year growth. solution to high energy prices, while accelerated
electrification of the heat and transport sectors also
The surge in installed solar capacity can be attributed to
gained much more attention. Many orders from 2021
several key factors. Firstly, a significant increase in global
and 2022 were finally installed in 2023, thanks to the
PV manufacturing capacities greatly improved the
increased availability of products and installers at
availability of solar modules following the supply chain
more affordable prices.
issues experienced during the pandemic. This capacity
expansion resulted in overcapacities and severe price
drops for system components over the course of 2023,
with modules’ values falling by around 50%.
FIGURE 2 ANNUAL SOLAR PV INSTALLED CAPACITY 2000-2023
500
447
450
400
350
87%
300
GW
250
200 46%
150 18%
100
50
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Europe AMER APAC China MEA
© SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024
Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024-2028 7

Executive summary / continued
While the scale of 2023’s growth was unprecedented, it Eight of the top 10 largest solar markets experienced
needs to be highlighted that most of this global market growth in 2023, with only India and Japan experiencing
expansion was driven by and in China. The world’s largest a downturn in their market. The United States got back
solar product supplier and market for years, China broke on track after a turbulent solar business year in 2022
any previous record by adding an incredible 253 GW of and recorded a 48% growth rate in 2023, with 32.4 GW
new solar PV capacity in 2023, marking a 167% year-on- of solar PV grid-connected. Germany installed 15 GW
year growth rate. Meanwhile, the rest of the world in 2023, marking a new record for any European
installed ‘only’ 194 GW of new solar PV, reflecting a 35% country. The previous record was held by Italy with 9.3
increase from the 144 GW deployed in 2022 (Fig. 3). In GW installed long back in 2011, during the first boom
other words, without China’s strong solar investments phase of the European solar story. Comprised
in deployment, the solar sector’s growth would have together, the top 10 markets represented 80% of the
been much more modest. global solar PV market in 2023.
FIGURE 3 TOP 10 SOLAR PV MARKETS, 2022-2023
300
253
250
200
150 2023
100 94.7 2022
80
GW
60
40
32.4
21.9
17.4
20 15.4 15.0
10.9 12.5
7.4 8.9 8.4
6.2 6.5 5.2 2.5 5.1 4.0 4.9 4.1
0
China
United States
Brazil
Germany
India
Spain
Japan
Italy
Australia
Netherlands

We anticipate substantial demand growth for solar position in the global PV landscape. With analysts
PV power in the coming years, driven by further cost severely under-estimating China’s market expansion
improvements, product availability, and the in the past, and several reasons speaking for further
numerous benefits the technology provides. Climate growth, we estimate deployments of 299 GW, a year-
emergency will continue to capture governments’ on-year uptick of 18%. Modelling variations
attention, while energy security will remain a depending on policy and economic developments,
compelling argument to invest in solar power in a our more optimistic High Scenario projects 45%
quickly fragmenting world order. annual growth to 647 GW, while our Low Scenario
anticipates only 3% growth to 461 GW in 2024. In the
For 2024, our Medium Scenario forecasts a global
mid-run, annual global market installations reach 614
growth rate of 22% to a market size of 544 GW,
GW in 2025 under the Medium Scenario, a 13%
approximately 100 GW more than in 2023 (see Fig.
increase from 544 GW in 2024, followed by a 12%
4). As we’ve seen in recent years, current global
increase to 687 GW in 2026, 12% to 773 GW in 2027,
market forecasting will depend largely on getting
and 13% to 876 GW in 2028.
China’s solar deployment right due to its outstanding
FIGURE 4 WORLD ANNUAL SOLAR PV MARKET SCENARIOS 2024-2028
1,200
1,112
13%
1,000
12% 876
12% 773
800
13% 687 668
647
22% 614
GW
600 544
447 461
400
200
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Historical data Low Scenario Medium Scenario High Scenario
Medium Scenario

Executive summary
After surpassing the 1.6 TW level in 2023, the global The strong PV expansion in 2023 brought a new record
solar power fleet is on track to exceed 2 TW by 2024 number of sizeable solar markets. The number of GW-
(see Fig. 5). Our Medium Scenario estimates 2.2 TW in scale solar markets – countries installing at least 1 GW
2024, 2.8 TW in 2025, 3.5 TW in 2026, 4.2 TW in 2027, – increased from 28 in 2022 to 31 in 2023, 14 of which
and 5.1 TW in 2028 – a forecast that is significantly are located in the European Union. We estimate this
higher than last year’s Medium Scenario. group to further augment to 37 GW-scale markets in
2024 and 50 in 2025.
Looking beyond our traditional 5-year forecast horizon
– to 2030 as a significant milestone year on the path to With China’s dominant solar role further increasing to
global net zero – a simple extrapolation of our Medium unknown heights, we have picked the country as this
Scenario 2024-2028 projects 7.4 TW of solar operating year’s focus theme. The chapter was contributed by the
capacity worldwide, which is above any of the most Global Solar Council (GSC), which also provided another
recent 2030 estimates of leading solar analysts. new addition – Policy Recommendations addressing
the key challenges for the global solar sector.
FIGURE 5 WORLD CUMULATIVE SOLAR PV MARKET SCENARIOS 2024-2028
7,000
6,000 5,920
21%
5,117
5,000 22%
4,421
4,241
25%
4,000
3,469
GW
28%
2,167
3,000 2,270
2,781
33%
2,085
2,000 1,624
1,000
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Medium Scenario

1
Global solar market
Quarzwerke floating solar park in construction, 3 MW. Haltern am See, Germany. © BayWa r.e.
Solar power dominated once again the newly added leader of the global energy transition, installing over
global power generation capacity in 2023, cementing three times more capacity than all other renewable
its status as the fastest growing renewable electricity technologies combined.
source for the 19th year in a row. Out of 576 GW of new
While the overall trend for renewable capacity
renewable (RES) capacity added last year, solar PV
additions has been consistently upward in recent
accounted for 78%, connecting 447 GW to the grid
years, pushed by the global energy crisis, policy
(see Fig. 6). Solar’s share of new renewable capacity
support, and technology and cost advancements,
increased considerably, up 12 percentage points from
2023 brought record-breaking growth primarily
the 66% contributed in 2022 and 22 percentage
through developments in the solar and wind
points more than the 56% in 2021. This new record
segments. Total renewable capacity additions are 214
confirms solar’s role as an established and still rising
FIGURE 6 NET RENEWABLE POWER GENERATING CAPACITY INSTALLED IN 2023
Other RE: 1 GW, 0.2%

Biomass: 4 GW, 0.8%
Hydro: 7 GW, 1.2%
Wind: 117 GW, 20%
576 GW
Solar: 447 GW, 78%
SOURCES: GWEC (2024), IRENA (2024), SolarPower Europe. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

GW higher than last year, a strong 59% increase from point in 2023, compared to 0.8 percentage points in
362 GW in 2022. Next to solar PV’s extraordinary surge 2022 and 0.5 between 2020 and 2021.
in 2023, the renewables drive was supported by a
Comparatively, all other renewable sources collectively
renewed growth phase in the wind sector, jumping by
provided 24.7% of the world’s power output in 2023 –
50% to a record 117 GW in 2023, up from 78 GW in
and this represents a 3% decrease from the 25.4%
2022. The exceptional renewables growth is reflected
share in 2022. The reason for the renewables’ reduced
by reaching a notable milestone: 2023 marks the year
output can be found in climate change – hot
renewables climbed to 30%, or nearly one third, of
temperatures and droughts troubled operations of
global electricity generation.
hydropower plants, which saw their output decline.
These encouraging developments must be kept in Non-renewable sources maintained their dominant
perspective. Solar power still contributes a minor position with a 69.8% share, going under the 70% mark
share of total electricity demand, accounting for only for the first time, as their share decreased by 0.3
5.5% of global power production in 2023, but percentage points in 2023. This means growth in solar
increasing from 4.5% in the previous year (see Fig. 7). and wind was so strong that it could compensate for
Though still relatively small, we observe a clear growth the decline in hydropower and force non-renewable
acceleration – solar’s share increased by 1 percentage sources’ output to a new record low.
FIGURE 7 SOLAR AND RENEWABLE POWER AS A SHARE OF GLOBAL POWER 2018-2023
100
90
80
70
74.5 73.4 71.5 71.6 70.1 69.8
60
%
50
40
30
20
23.3 23.9 25.2 24.6 25.4 24.7
10
2.2 2.7 3.2 3.7 4.5 5.5
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Solar Other RE Non-RE
SOURCE: Ember (2024). © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

1 Global solar market / continued
Solar’s track record demonstrates the considerable increased by 1.8%. In absolute terms, solar added
scale of its market potential, and as it maintains strong twice as much new electricity in 2023 as coal.
cost leadership we can expect it to continue capturing
Solar’s exceptional success over the last decade,
a larger share than any other power generation
driven by significant cost reductions, policy support
technology. Spearheading the global transition to
and pressures from the energy crisis, is now driving
renewables, solar generated 1,631 TWh in 2023, up
the transition to a new clean energy economy.
23% from the 1,324 TWh generated in 2022 (Fig. 8).
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA),
Wind is the second fastest growing technology in
clean energy added around 320 billion USD to the
terms of global power generation, with a 9.8% growth
world economy in 2023, representing 10% of global
rate, while hydropower saw a 2% decline. In the
GDP growth and corresponding to the GDP of a
meantime, electricity generated by coal, the most
country like the Czech Republic.1
carbon-intensive source of power generation, grew by
1.4%, and fossil gas-powered electricity grew slightly Looking at the clean energy manufacturing sector in
by 0.8%, while other fossil generation declined 7.5%, particular, supportive frameworks and policies across
driven by a fall in oil generation. Nuclear electricity different regions have enabled significant investment
FIGURE 8 ELECTRICITY GENERATION GROWTH RATE FROM 2021 TO 2022, BY TECHNOLOGY
Solar 23%
Wind 9.8%
Bioenergy 3.1%
Nuclear 1.8%
Coal 1.4%
Gas 0.8%
Other renewables 0.0%
Hydro -2.0%
Other fossil -7.5%
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
SOURCE: Ember (2024). © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024
1 IEA (2024): Clean energy is boosting economic growth.

growth. In 2023, 200 billion USD was invested in the and batteries. Out of an estimated 3 trillion USD
clean energy manufacturing sector globally, 40% of invested in the energy sector in 2023, 63%, or 1.9
which (80 billion USD) went to solar PV trillion USD, went to clean energy investments,
manufacturing, and over 90% of this was invested in according to the IEA.3
China. Also the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the US,
Specifically the power sector shows an increasing
the Green Deal's Fit for 55 package and the Net Zero
trend towards renewable power investments, led by
Industry Act (NZIA) in the EU, or the Production Linked
the solar sector. In 2023, investments in solar PV have
Incentive (PLI) in India have enabled investment
surpassed all other generation technologies
growth, or will do so when implemented.2
combined, according to the IEA (see Fig 9). However,
The strong investment activity in the clean tech sector this level of investment needs to increase
can be understood in the context of the recovery from considerably to align with a 1.5°C trajectory. Annual
the COVID-19 pandemic, and the responses to the investments in renewable power generation must
global energy crisis – immediately and regarding long- reach 1.3 trillion USD by 2030, according to the Global
term geostrategic considerations – which provided a Renewable Alliance (GRA), the International
major boost to global investments in renewables, EVs, Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and COP28.4
FIGURE 9 GLOBAL ANNUAL INVESTMENT IN SOLAR PV AND OTHER GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES 2021-2024
600
503
500 480
413 426
399
388
400 373
Billion USD
300
251
200
100
0
2021 2022 2023 2024e
Solar PV Other
NOTES: 2024e = estimated values for 2024. Other = electricity generation from all
other technologies including coal, oil, natural gas, wind, hydro and nuclear.
SOURCE: IEA (2024). © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024
2 IEA (2024): Advancing Clean Technology Manufacturing.

3 IEA (2023): World Energy Investments 2024.
4 COP28, IRENA and GRA (2023): Tripling renewable power and doubling
energy efficiency by2030: Crucial steps towards 1.5°C.

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Update 2000-2023 products, triggering hefty competition among
stakeholders. Prices for solar system components
In 2023, the world grid-connected 447 GW of new solar dropped sharply, and mostly for solar modules – by
capacity, far exceeding any solar analyst’s expectations around 50% over the course of 2023.
and marking an extraordinary 87% growth rate (see Fig.
10). This compares to previous year's addition of 239 In addition to demand reacting elastically to dropping
GW and 46% year-on-year growth. prices, the effects of the 2022 global energy crisis
continued to trigger demand in various regions of the
This unprecedented surge in installed capacity can be world. Governments, individuals, businesses were
attributed to several key factors. Firstly, a very strong looking to solar power as a reliable and cost-effective
increase in global PV manufacturing capacities greatly solution to high energy prices, while faster
improved availability of solar modules and balance-of- electrification of heat and transport sectors was
system products after the supply chain issues faced increasingly on the radar. Pending order pipelines from
around the pandemic. Capacity expansions, which have 2021 and 2022 were often only installed in 2023,
been also part of technology shift towards TOPCon cell when products and installers were available and more
technology, have resulted in overcapacities that affordable. All this comes on top of climate protection
reached levels twice as large as demand for certain PV activities that have been continuing around the world.
FIGURE 10 ANNUAL SOLAR PV INSTALLED CAPACITY 2000-2023
500
447
450
400
350
87%
300
GW
250
200 46%
150 18%
100
50
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023

Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024 - 2028 17

1 Global solar market - Update 2000-2023 / continued
The combination of these factors resulted in the In our previous GMO edition, published in June 2023,
highest year-on-year growth since the beginning of we projected a global sector growth of 341 GW under
the modern solar age. While the scale of 2023’s our Medium Scenario, anticipating a 42% year-on-year
growth was unprecedented indeed, it is important to market increase, one of the highest growth
highlight that most of this global market expansion expectations among analysts at the time. While the
was driven by China. The world’s largest solar market estimates were almost right for the “rest of the world”,
for years, and also in 2022 with 95 GW annually which installed just 3% less than our 200 GW forecast,
installed, China broke any previous record by adding China far exceeded expectations, deploying 80% more
an incredible 253 GW of new solar PV capacity in solar capacity than our 141 GW forecast, and even
2023, marking a 167% year-on-year growth rate. 111% above the 120 GW the Chinese PV Industry
Meanwhile, the rest of the world installed ‘only’ 194 Association (CPIA) forecasted in its optimistic
GW of new solar PV, reflecting a 34% increase from the scenario last year. In 2023, China installed 6% more
145 GW deployed in 2022 (Fig. 11). solar PV capacity than the entire world deployed in
2022. In other words, without China’s strong solar
investments in deployment, the solar sector’s growth
would have been much more modest.
FIGURE 11 ANNUAL SOLAR GROWTH CHINA VS. REST OF WORLD 2021- 2023
300
253
250
194
200
167% 35%
GW
150
100
50
0
2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023
China Rest of the world

Top 10 global solar markets Contrary to 2021 and 2022, the utility-scale sector left
the rooftop segment behind again, following the higher
There are only few changes in the composition of the
impact of reduced product prices in this segment.
global top 10 markets. While 7 countries have moved
China deployed 146 GW of utility-scale projects,
up or down the ranks, the only new entrant is Italy,
representing 58% of new installations in 2023, while
replacing another European country, Poland. Again, it’s
rooftops solar amounted to 107 GW, equal to 42% of
China that leaves its mark within the top 10: the largest
the total. The cumulative solar PV capacity of China
global market installed more than twice the capacity
jumped to 656 GW by end of 2023, after having
of all the other nine combined (see Fig. 12).
crossed the 400 GW mark in 2022, and the 300 GW
Playing in a different league, also due to its sheer size, mark in 2021. For more details on China, see the focus
China has further cemented its position as the global chapter at p. 61 and CPIA’s market view at p. 84.
No. 1 solar market (see Fig. 13). It installed almost eight
The United States experienced its best year for solar
times more PV capacity than the second largest
PV so far, installing 32.4 GW in 2023, a significant 48%
market, and over half of the world’s capacity additions.
boost from 2022. This jump marks a return to the
Over the past three years, the Chinese market
growth path, which was interrupted in 2022 due to
experienced stellar growth, rising from 55 GW in 2021
trade protection legislation impacts that limited
to 95 GW in 2022 (+72%), and 253 GW in 2023 (+167%).
imports. The delays caused by these trade actions
Last year, around 62 GW out of the 253 GW new
were partly resolved in 2023, allowing for the
capacity was grid-connected in December alone.
realisation of postponed projects. The industry also
FIGURE 12 TOP 10 SOLAR PV MARKETS 2023
United States Brazil

China
9% 4%
71%
of the 10 largest solar markets
Japan
2%
Germany Spain
4% 2%
Italy
Netherlands,
India 1%
3% Australia
1%
1%
Note: Percentage indicates the share of aggregate top 10 installed capacity. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

benefited from the first full year of the IRA, which has in 2021, the country progressed to rank 4 one year
largely improved the economic attractiveness of later, and now belongs to the three largest solar
manufacturing projects but also solar deployment markets in the world. This strong growth was recorded
through an extension of the investment tax credit despite macroeconomic challenges, grid-connection
(ITC). In California, the US state with the largest issues, and changes in the country’s attractive net-
operating PV capacity, new net-metering rules (NEM metering law for systems up to 5 MW, which have
3.0), taking effect in April 2023, led to a surge in been the fundament of Brazil’s impressive solar boom.
residential installations in the first quarter, after which As of January 2023, PV system operators must pay
demand dropped drastically. Still, the residential fees for grid usage when feeding in solar power. Still,
segment grew by 13% year-on-year, and all new distributed solar added 10.3 GW, nearly the same level
rooftop installations combined reached 9.8 GW in as the year before. On the other hand, the centralised
2023, a 21% increase from 8.1 GW in 2022, while solar PV segment augmented by nearly 50% to 4.1 GW,
utility-scale installations soared to 22.6 GW, up 64% mostly from corporate Power Purchase Agreements
from 13.8 GW in 2022. (PPAs) in the unregulated market that offers more
lucrative opportunities than the traditional
Brazil's solar PV sector grew significantly in 2023 and
government auctions. Brazil’s total installed solar PV
installed 15.4 GW, up 41% from 10.9 GW in 2022. After
capacity surpassed 39.4 GW by the end of 2023.
entering the top 10 for the first time on the 7th position
FIGURE 13 TOP 10 SOLAR PV MARKETS 2022-2023
300
253
250
200
150 2023
100 94.7 2022
80
GW
60
40
32.4
21.9
17.4
20 15.4 15.0
10.9 12.5
7.4 8.9 8.4
6.2 6.5 5.2 2.5 5.1 4.0 4.9 4.1
0
China
United States
Brazil
Germany
India
Spain
Japan
Italy
Australia
Netherlands

Germany gained two positions, landing on the 4th spot January 2023. The current German government has
of the world’s largest solar markets after doubling its acknowledged the critical role of solar energy, aiming
annual installed capacity to 15 GW in 2023, from 7.4 for renewables to comprise 80% of electricity
GW in 2022. By the end of August 2023, the country generation by 2030 and 100% by 2035, with a specific
had already added 9 GW of solar capacity, meeting the solar PV capacity target of 215 GW by 2030.
government’s target for the entire year. Germany’s
After strong growth in 2021 and 2022, it seemed
achievement marks the first time a European country
India’s solar PV sector was back on an upward
has surpassed the 10 GW mark in annual installations,
trajectory. But the sector saw significant changes and
breaking the 12-year record previously held by Italy,
challenges resulting in a 28% decline in new
which grid-connected 9.3 GW in 2011. The revision of
installations last year, with 12.5 GW added from
the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) in July 2022,
January to December 2023, compared to 17.4 GW in
which fully took effect at the beginning of 2023, has
2022. This downturn costs the country two ranks,
been instrumental for Germany to get on the roofs and
falling to 5th place in 2023. The market decline is
ground its extensive project pipeline that arose from
attributed to fewer new tenders issued between 2020
the 2022 energy price crisis. Key improvements
and 2022, which led to a reduced pipeline of projects
included increased feed-in tariffs (FITs) for new
to be built in 2023. In addition, changes in policy and
rooftop systems, a halt to monthly reductions in feed-
regulatory frameworks, such as revisions of tariffs and
in rates for new systems until the end of 2024, and a
duties on imported solar modules, created uncertainty
cut of the national sales tax (VAT) on PV systems as of
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130 32 20
Our systems are 32 GW of 20 years
installed in over installed capacity of solar
130 countries worldwide experience
that affected planning and financial viability of Spain, ranking as the second largest European market,
projects, resulting in delays and extension of project secured the 6th position globally in newly installed
timelines. Also, the government’s push for increased capacity, reaching 8.9 GW. This represents a modest 5%
use of domestically made solar components did not year-on-year growth, contrasting sharply with the 76%
help as very limited local production could not meet surge shown in 2022. The country saw a 53% decline in
developers’ needs. The issues are likely temporary, as the residential segment compared to the record
challenges are being addressed, and over 50 GW of performance in 2022, partially attributed to delayed
renewable tendered capacity was issued in 2023. subsidy payments tarnishing public perception on
rooftop PV. Similarly, the commercial and industrial
Within the top 5 markets, the spread between China
(C&I) segment experienced a downward trend,
and its peers has grown considerably (see Fig. 14).
declining by 22%, despite falling module prices. On the
China, which has taken an outstanding role already as
contrary, ground-mounted PV confirmed its central role
of 2016, plays in an entirely different league. In 2023,
in Spain's solar landscape. The utility-solar segment was
the #1 market was eight times larger than the #2, USA,
the only one to grow in 2023, with a notable uptick of
and 20 times larger than the #5, India. That’s
25%. Spanish solar parks are often developed through
significantly more than last year, when the market size
PPAs, underscoring the country’s position as a global
difference had a factor of four and 11, respectively.
FIGURE 14 TOP 5 SOLAR PV MARKETS 2010-2023
300
250 253
200
GW
150
100
50
32
15
15
13
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
China United States Brazil Germany India

leader in subsidy-free solar energy. With a huge PV Italy emerged as one of the fastest-growing solar
project pipeline existing, growth could have been much markets in the EU in 2023, installing 5.2 GW. This marks
higher if it were not for grid connection issues, along a 111% increase from the 2.5 GW installed in 2022,
with high interest rates, declining wholesale electricity when the country re-entered the gigawatt scale for the
prices and decreasing solar capture rates that have first time since 2013. As a result, Italy rejoined the global
made successful solar park developments much harder top 10 on the 8th position. The energy crisis and the end
in Spain than in the past. of the government’s Superbonus tax incentive scheme
propelled residential solar, resulting in a notable 79%
Japan maintained its 7th position, despite a marginal
growth in this segment. After conditions were made
market decline. The country installed 6.2 GW of solar
much less attractive for the Superbonus, Italy's solar
capacity in 2023, down 4% from 6.5 GW in 2022.
expansion has been primarily steered by the C&I
Since its peak year in 2015, when it installed 10.8 GW,
segment, contributing approximately 46% of the
Japan has been on a downward trend in solar
installed capacity in 2023. Moreover, solar farms
installations. The discontinuation of FITs for large-
exceeding 1 MW experienced a peak month in
scale systems in 2022 marked a transition period,
December 2023, with installations reaching 362 MW,
during which new business models reliant on PPAs and
significantly surpassing the average monthly
third-party ownership have started to gain traction.
installation rate of 72 MW from January to November.
Anticipated growth in the residential and C&I
segments is expected to reverse this trend and Australia has climbed one spot to 9th place after
stimulate installations in the near future. Additionally, installing 5.1 GW in 2023, a 28% increase that was
the country conducted four rounds of auctions for primarily attributed to the strong performance of the
utility-scale projects throughout 2023, allocating a rooftop segment. Although it falls short of the
total capacity of 300 MW. country's best performance of 5.9 GW added in 2021,
demand for rooftop systems has remained basically
100 MW, Guangdong Energy, China. © Jinko Solar
Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2021

2024-2028
- 2025 23
FIGURE 15 TOP 10 COUNTRIES SOLAR SHARE 2023
Rest of World: 20% China: 57%
Netherlands: 1%
Australia: 1%
Italy: 1%
Japan: 1%
Spain: 2% 447 GW
India: 3%
Germany: 3%
Brazil: 4%
United States:7%
steady since 2022. Utility-scale projects accounted both the C&I and ground-mounted solar sectors gained
for 1.9 GW, a notable improvement from 1.2 GW in shares, they are increasingly encountering grid
2022. As of December 2023, out of 56 renewable congestion issues. Additionally, large solar parks are
energy projects under construction, 38 were large- facing severe space constraints, and have been leading
scale solar projects, a decrease from 48 at the same the local industry to explore multifunctional PV
point in 2022. But the amount of large-scale projects applications such as Agri-PV, floating solar, and solar
commissioned is expected to increase thanks to the carports to address these challenges.
Capacity Investment Scheme, which provides a
In 2023, more than ever, the market was dominated by
national framework to foster new investments in
China, which alone was responsible for 57% of the
renewable capacity.
world’s total additions, up 17 percentage points from
The Netherlands switched ranks with Australia, the 40% it provided in 2022 (see Fig. 15). As a
dropping from 9th to 10th place despite 20% market consequence of China’s record performance, all the
growth to 4.9 GW. A robust rooftop market for years, the other top 10 markets lost global market share. The
Netherlands' solar sector heavily relied on a net- share installed in all other countries also decreased, by
metering policy for the residential sector and an auction 5 percentage points to 20%. A positive development is
programme for larger rooftop and ground-mounted a further increasing number of countries reaching
systems. In 2023, the residential rooftop market surged annual GW market size: in 2023, 31 countries crossed
by 39% to 2.6 GW, driven by record levels in response the threshold, compared to 28 the year before. Details
to the previous year's energy crisis and uncertainty on these markets can be found in Chapter 4, where
about the future of the net-metering scheme. Although national industry associations active in the solar sector
provide analysis on their home markets (see p. 81).

Regional Update In Europe, the solar market continued its strong
performance, increasing annual installed capacities
In 2023, no region other than Asia-Pacific (incl. China)
substantially compared to the already exceptional
managed to increase its market share. If China is
growth years around the pandemic. After growth rates
looked at separately, all other regions lost market
of 34% in 2021 and 45% in 2022, the region
shares, showing how much the country dominates the
experienced a 51% year-on-year market boost to 70.1
solar world. China accounted for more than half of
GW in 2023, which meant a 16% contribution to the
2023 annual installations, a massive 57% of the global
global market. Although it lost 3 percentage points in
share unseen before, and up from 40% in 2022 and
global market share, Europe has overtaken Asia-
33% in 2021. A similar though slightly lower level of
Pacific excl. China and the Americas, ending 2023 as
dominance has been seen only once before, in 2017,
the second largest solar region, one place up from the
when China surprisingly installed 54 GW equal to 52%
third rank in 2022, and the fourth position in 2021.
of the global market share. Afterwards, it started a
market transition project away from FITs to auctions Within Europe, Germany has taken over the lead again,
and other policy frameworks, which resulted in new after Spain was not able to replicate its strong growth
installations falling sharply for two years and from 2022. Besides established solar markets Italy (5.2
recovered to new record levels only in 2021. However, GW), the Netherlands (4.9 GW), Poland (4.6 GW) and
in 2017, the global solar market was just over 100 GW, France (3.2 GW), several other European countries have
now it’s more than four times larger, yet China holds passed the annual GW-market threshold. This includes
an even greater share than ever before.
FIGURE 16 ANNUAL SOLAR PV INSTALLED CAPACITY SHARES 2017-2023
100 1.7% 3.0% 2.4% 2.8% 3.5% 3.3%

5.7%
90
80 26% 35% 33%

43% 40%
70 52% 57%
60
31%
24%
%
50 27%
20%
40 27%
23% 11%
30 18% 20%
19% 17%
20 13%
16%
13%
10 20% 17% 19% 19%
11% 16%
9%
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Türkiye (2.7 GW) and Austria (2.7 GW), which both GW but faced opposite developments last year. Unlike
exceeded the 2 GW mark for the first time with Chile, where solar activities slightly contracted from
impressive growth rates of 69% and 166% respectively. 1.8 GW to 1.7 GW due to congestion problems in the
Türkiye was the largest European non-EU market, while transmission lines, Mexico faced 40% demand
the United Kingdom and Switzerland also continued growth despite government policies that have
their upward trend, installing 1.8 GW and 1.5 GW hindered investments in renewables while focusing
respectively. The European Union registered 50% on fossil fuels. Mexico’s solar market is still reigned by
growth last year, with 26 out of 27 Member States utility-scale solar, but the rooftop segment is getting
installing more solar than the year before; the only close – now at a 44% share, after it logged another
exception was Denmark. Most of the European record in 2023. Together, the US, Brazil, Chile and
continent’s solar deployment last year took place in the Mexico accounted for 86% of the Americas’ 2023
EU where 60.9 GW was deployed; that’s equal to 87% solar additions, similar to the 87% share the four
market share, and 0.5 percentage point less than the owned in 2022.
year before. The 13% share of non-EU countries in 2023
If Europe and the Americas both increased by one
is based on 9.3 GW of new PV capacity.
place in the ranking, it is partly due to the significant
The Americas climbed one spot in the regional market share decline of the Asia-Pacific region (excl.
rankings to third place, capturing 13% of the global China). In 2023, the region’s share dropped from 20%
market share. The region installed 58.8 GW in 2023, a in 2022 to 11% in 2023, the largest decrease among
43% increase from 41.0 GW added in 2022. But the all regions, which meant a plunge from the second to
continent remains heavily dependent on a few key the fourth position. Little growth of 2% to 50.2 GW in
markets, with the United States leading the solar way. 2023, from 48.9 GW in 2022 was not enough to keep
In 2023, the United States increased its regional up with the other regions. Only Australia and Taiwan
dominance, accounting for 55% of the continent’s showed notable growth rates – the one by 28% to 5.1
new installations, up by 2 percentage points from GW, the other by 32% to 2.7 GW; but even these were
2022. The only other market with a two-digit GW significantly lower than the global average of 84%. All
market is Brazil, whose share decreased by 1 other major Asian solar nations disappointed. India's
percentage point to 26%. The Americas’ third rank is annual installations even plummeted by 28% to 12.5
shared by Chile and Mexico. Both markets added 1.6 GW in 2023, from 17.4 GW the year before. This
477 kW, Matosinhos, Portugal. © Greenvolt

downturn is attributed to a lack of utility-scale In summary, 2023 was a stellar year for solar energy,
development due to project delays, auctioning with a massive 87% market growth that no solar
shortages, regulatory hurdles, and speculative analyst predicted one year ago. A global growth rate
behaviour on declining module prices. Also Japan’s at that scale was observed the last time in 2010 – then
market slowed by 4% to 6.2 GW. Once a solar pioneer, at 107%, but the market was only 17 GW large and 26
the Japanese market has been stagnating for several times smaller than today. Two primary factors
years after policy makers slashed feed-in tariffs but contributed to this surge in installations. The sharp
failed to provide a framework that enables growth like increase in manufacturing capacities in China has
in other former FIT markets. Although South Korea is reached unprecedented levels, exceeding the TW-level
home to one of the few successful non-Chinese from wafer to modules, and supplying plenty of low-
cell/module makers, the current political elite seems cost and attractively priced product to the rest of the
to have abandoned any solar ambitions; political world. This significantly impacted module prices,
support has shifted from renewable energy towards which dropped by half, making solar energy more
nuclear. At 2.9 GW, the market was only 64% of the 4.7 affordable than ever. Second, the lingering effects of
GW that was installed in 2020. None of the other high- the energy crisis drove orders in 2021 and 2022 to
potential solar markets in that region, like Thailand, unmatched levels, with project realisations continuing
Malaysia, Philippines, and Indonesia, reached the GW- in 2023.
level in 2023.
While the manufacturing increase and the induced
The Middle East and Africa (MEA) region experienced price effects will likely keep influencing the market in
significant solar growth of 78% in 2023, adding 14.8 2024, the immediate impact of the energy price crisis
GW. This broke the previous record set in 2022, when on installation levels is diminishing. However, the crisis
8.3 GW of capacity was installed. Three MEA countries undeniably left a mark amongst households,
reached the GW-level in 2023, compared to two in businesses, and policymakers, and highlighted the
2022. South Africa maintained its top position after need for energy security and a faster development of
installing 3.2 GW, which meant a 142% growth rate. renewables.
Regulatory reforms in 2022 have enabled unmatched
Nonetheless, the unprecedented market growth
growth in the private utility-scale solar segment, while
should not hide its skewness. The global solar PV
energy security issues have driven demand for
market has never been as dependent on a single
residential solar PV and battery storage systems.
country as it was in 2023. More than every second
Characterised mainly by a few very large PV projects, solar module was installed in China. The country’s
the United Arab Emirates (UAE) entered GW territory annual market grew 72% in 2022 and a staggering
for the first time since 2019. It installed 3.1 GW, mainly 167% in 2023, while the rest of the world experienced
based on the finalisation of the 2 GW Al Dhafra Solar a 32% growth in both years. At the same time, about
Power Project near Abu Dhabi. The third GW-market in eight PV modules out of ten are manufactured in
MEA was Saudi Arabia, which passed that threshold China, which retains the strong majority of global PV
for the first time ever, after 1.9 GW was grid- production capacities. As the energy crisis
connected, largely from the initial phase of the 1.5 GW dramatically highlighted, relying on a single supply
Sudair Solar Project in Saudi Arabia. Israel remained source is not sustainable. A market contraction in
the fourth-largest solar nation in the region, even China would inevitably lead to a global market
though deployment decreased by 20% to 824 MW, contraction unless other regions accelerate their
down from 1 GW in 2022. Overall, MEA’s global market deployment of renewable energy. In the same vein, a
share slightly fell to 3.3% in 2023, from 3.5% in 2022. downturn in China's PV manufacturing activities or
global export accessibility would slow down the
energy transition of other countries.

While 2023 marked a historic year for solar PV growth, Cumulative solar installations until 2023
the future of the market hinges on continued global
The global cumulative installed capacity of solar PV
efforts to diversify manufacturing capacities and
systems reached 1,624 GW by the end of 2023, up
accelerate renewable energy deployment outside
38% from 1,177 GW a year earlier, when the solar fleet
China. The lessons learned from the recent energy
recorded 26% growth (Fig. 17). Global on-grid PV
crisis emphasise the importance of a diversified
capacity is 38 times larger than the 41.4 GW operating
energy supply. Similarly, supply chain constraints
at the end of 2010. Important installation milestones
following the pandemic and energy crisis unveiled
of the world’s solar evolution include: reaching the first
vulnerabilities in highly concentrated manufacturing.
GW before 2000, surpassing the 10 GW level in 2008
The year 2023 was the hottest on record, the world
and climbing up to 100 GW four years later in 2012. It
can simply not afford any disruption in renewable
took another six years until 2018 to exceed 500 GW,
energy supply chain, as any slowdown in deployment
and just four more years for the market to double to
of renewable energy is a slowdown in our global fight
the TW level in 2022. In 2023, solar PV also became
against climate change.
the renewable energy technology with the largest
capacity deployed worldwide, surpassing hydropower.
FIGURE 17 TOTAL SOLAR PV INSTALLED CAPACITY 2000-2023
1,800
1,624
1,600
1,400 38%
1,200
26%
1,000
GW
21%
800
600
400
200
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023

In the last few years, the regions’ cumulative market Europe’s global market share slightly decreased by 1
shares remained relatively stable, as the total installed percentage point to 20% despite significant solar
PV fleet had reached a level that makes it very difficult growth in most of its markets. In terms of total
for annual installation fluctuations to have a notable operating solar capacity, Europe maintained its position
impact. But the world’s largest market China's as the second-largest region in 2023. The record
explosive growth in 2023 was so outstanding that its addition of 70.2 GW strengthened Europe’s second
total installed capacity share rose to 40%, from 34% place with a cumulative PV capacity of 322 GW.
in 2022 (see Fig. 18).
With a total installed PV capacity of 258 GW, the
Combined, APAC including China now accounts for Americas kept its third place in the regional ranking in
61% of total solar PV installations, adding up to nearly 2023, but lost 1% of global share to reach 16%. Although
1 TW – to be exact, 995 GW –, a higher share than in MEA experienced substantial growth of 45% after
any of the last six years. Without China, APAC lost installing 48.1 GW, it did neither affect its overall solar
more market shares than any other region – 4 positioning as the smallest global solar region nor its
percentage points down to 21%. overall market share of 3%.
FIGURE 18 TOTAL SOLAR PV INSTALLED CAPACITY SHARES 2017-2023
100 1.7% 2.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% 3%
90
32% 34% 32% 33% 33%
80 34%
40%
70
60
24% 25% 26% 26% 26% 25%
%
50
21%
40
15%
30 15% 16% 16% 17% 17%
16%
20
28% 24% 24%
10 22% 22% 21% 20%
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

The top 5 solar nations haven’t seen any changes in Altogether, the top 5 largest markets operated 67% of
their 2023 rankings compared to the previous year. the global solar fleet in 2023, a slight increase from
Unsurprisingly, China is leading the global leader with 66% in 2022. Their cumulative capacity surpassed the
a total solar power fleet of 656 GW, controlling 40% of 1 TW level, reaching 1,092 GW by the end of 2023,
the world’s solar capacity at the end of 2023 (Fig. 19). compared to 774 GW one year prior.
The United States held steady its second place with
There were no changes among the global top 5 solar
173 GW, although its market share fell by 1 percentage
power fleet operators – and it’s very unlikely any other
point to 11%. Japan maintained the third spot, probably
nation will enter soon. Brazil, in sixth place, owns less
for the last time, after its share has been dwindling for
than half of Germany’s total solar PV capacity. Within
years, this time by 1 percentage point to 6%, based on
the lower half of the top 10, Brazil improved by four
an operational capacity of 90.4 GW. While India at 90.1
positions to #6 with 39.4 GW, while Australia moved
GW and Germany at 83.0 GW kept their fourth and
down two spots to #8 with 36.1 GW installed. Spain is
fifth spots, despite losing 1% market share year-on-
now ranked 7th with 36.3 GW, Italy on the 9th position
year, both might take over Japan in 2024. For the
with 29.8 GW, and South Korea closes the top 10,
moment, India holds 6% and Germany 5% of the total
operating a solar fleet of 27.3 GW.
installed global capacity respectively.
FIGURE 19 TOP 10 SOLAR PV MARKETS TOTAL INSTALLED SHARES 2023
Rest of World: 22% China: 40%
South Korea: 1%
Italy: 2% 1,624 GW
Australia: 2%
Spain: 2%
Brazil: 2%
Germany: 5%
India: 6%
Japan: 6% United States: 11%

Solar watt per capita The top 5 markets with the largest installed PV
capacity per inhabitant saw few changes, the top 3
Analysing the solar market on a watt-per-capita basis
even remained the same (see Fig. 20). End of 2023,
provides valuable insights on the development
Australia led with 1,359 W/capita, followed closely by
potential of countries beyond their absolute installed
the Netherlands with 1,299 W/capita, and Germany
capacities.
with 996 W/capita. Like in 2022, only two countries in
Next to China, Germany stands out in the solar world the world exceeded the 1 kW/capita threshold in 2023.
– it’s Europe’s largest market, among the top 5 global Australia reached this milestone in 2021 and was
solar power operators, and a top 3 market in terms of joined by the Netherlands in 2022. Denmark shifted
watt-per-capita installations. It’s an example for down one rank to the 5th spot with 828 W/capita
countries where a growth environment has been because of a lacklustre solar performance in 2023.
created through supportive policy frameworks and Belgium climbed one rank to enter the top 4 markets
ambitious targets. It is a likely contributing reason to with 846 W/capita. Japan has fallen to the eighth place,
why seven of the global top 10 markets with the being passed by both Estonia and Spain. It is telling
highest solar per capita rates are European, and all but that the world’s largest market China is only ranked
Australia, Japan and the United Arab Emirates are 12th, despite its global market dominance, and the
based in the European Union. In the EU, renewables global #2, United States on the 26th place when it
have been high on the agenda for years, and during the comes to installed solar per capita. India, the world’s
energy crisis, it has embraced solar as a key most populated country, is only on the 74th position –
technology to strengthen energy security. clearly showing how much further growth potential
there is for solar.
FIGURE 20 WORLD TOP 10 COUNTRIES SOLAR CAPACITY PER CAPITA 2023
Australia Netherlands Germany

Legend
Watt/capita
in 2023
(Watt/
1st 2nd 3rd
capita)
in 2022
1,359 (1,179) 1,299 (1,026) 996 (816)

Watt/capita Watt/capita Watt/capita
United Arab
Belgium Denmark Estonia Spain Japan Austria Emirates
4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
846 (684) 828 (709) 825 (603) 764 (576) 735 (681) 719 (421) 708 (388)
Watt/capita Watt/capita Watt/capita Watt/capita Watt/capita Watt/capita Watt/capita

From an annual addition perspective, the watt-per- scale PV plant development in 2023. Austria and the
capita metric top ranking looks very different than the Netherlands followed with 299 and 276 W/capita
totals (see Fig. 21). This top 10 list contains six added. While Austria climbed three spots in the
different countries and the top three do not appear in ranking, the Netherlands is no longer the top
the 2023 Watt/capita ranking (China, US and Brazil). performer, shifting down two spots. Lithuania,
The European dominance is even more pronounced – Slovenia complete the top five and Estonia follows on
with eight out of the top 10 coming from the EU. The the sixth spot, proving the case for strong
United Arab Emirates secured the top spot with 323 development in Eastern European markets. Finally,
W/capita added in a year. The country showed Australia, Spain, Sweden and Germany complete the
immense growth rising from a mere 54 W/capita in list, with all but Sweden being a top 10 market as well.
2022 to the first place in one year, because of its large-
FIGURE 21 WORLD TOP 10 COUNTRIES IN ANNUAL SOLAR CAPACITY PER CAPITA ADDITIONS 2023
350
300
250
W/capita increase
200
150
100
50
0
UAE
Austria
Netherlands
Lithuania
Slovenia
Estonia
Australia
Spain
Sweden
Germany
2023 2022

FIGURE 22 COUNTRY RANKING 2023
ANNUAL ADDITION CUMULATIVE CAPACITY ANNUAL WATT PER CAPITA CUMULATIVE WATT
PER CAPITA
1. China China United Arab Emirates Australia
2. United States United States Austria Netherlands
3. Brazil Japan Netherlands Germany
4. Germany India Lithuania Belgium
5. India Germany Slovenia Denmark
6. Spain Brazil Estonia Estonia
7. Japan Spain Australia Spain
8. Italy Australia Spain Japan
9. Australia Italy Sweden Austria
10. Netherlands South Korea Germany United Arab Emirates
A comparison of the different rankings of this chapter Looking at the speed of PV deployment in W/capita
shows only Germany, Spain and Australia being listed terms, APAC led with a 43% growth rate, increasing
in all four top 10 rankings (see Fig. 22). The strong from 193 to 226 W/capita between 2022 and 2023.
difference between the United Arab Emirates in the The Middle East and Africa region came second with
annual and cumulative W/capita rankings, shows how a 41% growth rate, rising from 19 to 27 W/capita, while
relatively large the recent developments of utility- Americas and Europe show similar growth rates, with
scale solar have been. 29% and 28%, respectively.
All three major solar regions exceeded the global The distribution of solar deployment on a watt-per-
average of 202 W/capita by end of 2023. Europe led capita metric varies widely for the different regions.
with 382 W/capita, followed by the Americas with 248 Europe demonstrates the most heterogenous
W/capita, and APAC including China with 226 W/capita distribution with 45% of the countries above the
(see Fig. 23). In contrast, the Middle East and Africa region’s average, and the leaders significantly. In the
region lagged dramatically behind, reaching only 27 Americas all but two countries – US and Chile – were
W/capita. Considering the region's population of nearly below the regions average end of last year. In APAC,
1.8 billion people – and on the one hand the economic where 55% of the global population lives and which
power of some Arab countries and on the other the operates nearly two thirds of the world’s solar fleet,
low electrification rates in many African nations, there the bulk of the countries remained below the region’s
is enormous potential for solar growth. average and only five were above, including Australia,
a clear outlier where about every third household uses
solar PV today.
Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2022 - 2026 33

FIGURE 23 WATT PER CAPITA ACROSS REGIONS 2013-2023
1,400
Australia
Netherlands
1,200
1,000 Germany
800
W/capita
Japan
United Arab Emirates

600
Israel
United States
382 Chile
400
248 226
202
200
27
0
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Europe AMER APAC MEA
Europe average AMER average APAC average MEA average

World average

Prospects 2024-2028 downward trend that have not come to halt in the first
five months of 2024 – by our editorial deadline end of
Forecast 2024 May, prices for silicon had tumbled another 40% and
In the beginning of 2024, the solar PV sector found for modules by 10-15%, depending on technology.
itself in a very different position than one year earlier. What’s bad for the manufacturing industry turns out
The energy crisis was over and power prices had to be a boon for the downstream sector – low
rapidly advanced on a path towards the much lower product prices will stay a main driver in an
levels seen in early 2021. Gigantic growth on the solar environment of continuous high interest rates and
demand side met production capacities that very modest economic growth projections for major
expanded even faster, and to levels unseen before. The western solar markets, and deteriorating conditions
IEA estimates that China could have produced 800 in China, Brazil or India, according to the IMF’s April
GW, and not just 560 GW, if existing capacity were World Economic Outlook.6
utilised at 85% instead of around 50%.5 No wonder PV
products across the value chain and most system Amid these challenging circumstances, the global solar
components have been under strong price pressure. market is expected to continue growing in 2024,
At the start of 2024, Chinese solar silicon cost around though at a much lower rate than in 2023. Our Medium
70% less than a year before, while factory-gate Scenario forecasts a global growth rate of 22% to a
module prices dropped by 50% year-on-year; a market size of 544 GW, approximately 100 GW more
FIGURE 24 ANNUAL SOLAR PV MARKET SCENARIOS 2023-2024
700
647
600
544
500 461
447
400
GW
45%
300
22%
3%
200
100
0
2023 2024
Historical Low Scenario Medium Scenario High Scenario
5 IEA (2024): Advancing Clean Technology Manufacturing.

6 IMF (2024): World Economic Outlook.

1 Global solar market - Prospects 2024-2028 / continued
than in 2023 (see Fig. 24). As we’ve seen in recent years, Regional developments 2024
current global market forecasting will depend largely on
The Asia-Pacific region will continue to be dominated by
getting China’s solar deployment right due to its
its two largest markets, China and India. Together, both
outstanding position in the global PV landscape.
will account for 84% of the region's installed capacity in
China reached new heights in 2023 due to a 2024, according to our Medium Scenario. Compared to
significant increase in PV module supply and a sharp 2023, India's market share is expected to increase
decrease in module prices. In 2024, production slightly from 4% to 5%, while China's share will reach
capacity will still increase but not at the exceptional 79% of APAC’s deployment, down from 83% in 2023.
rate witnessed in the past two years. Similarly, module
After the impressive growth registered in 2023, China’s
prices are not expected to decrease as steeply as they
market is expected to slow down in 2024, reaching a
did from late 2022 to late 2023. China achieved new
market size of 299 GW with an 18% annual increase. For
records in 2023 and raised the bar for solar; 2024 is
the first time since 2021, this growth rate is lower than
expected to continue along similar lines, but without
the expected global market growth of 22%, although
the same groundbreaking advancements.
the absolute volumes are so large that the forecasted
In our Low Scenario for 2024, we project a market size level of installations still accounts for 55% of worldwide
of 461 GW, representing a modest 3% growth from additions, only 2 percentage points less than in 2023.
2023 levels. This very slow growth is based among The High Scenario sees the Chinese market growing by
others on assumptions that demand for solar PV in 41% year-on-year to reach 356 GW in 2024. However,
several regions may not increase as rapidly as our Medium Scenario forecast is already optimistic
anticipated following the energy crisis. Trade disputes compared to other analysts. CPIA estimates a market
and protective measures against cheap imported size between 190 and 220 GWAC. Assuming a 1.3 DC/AC
modules observed in the United States and India boil ratio, this places their highest estimate at 286 GW,
up and extend potentially to the EU. Interest rates will which is below our Medium Scenario for 2024. Our
not decrease, local conflicts aggravate and depress upbeat forecast is driven by the significant pipeline of
economies. China could limit solar sector growth as utility-scale projects, fuelled by declining costs of PV
its power networks and its energy sector increasingly system components, and strong market developments
face issues with the massive volumes of variable solar in the first months of the year. From January to April
power systems feeding into the grid. 2024, China installed around 60 GWAC, 25% more than
in the same period 2023. 2024 will also be the year
Our more optimistic High Scenario, on the other hand,
when China achieves its 2030 National Determined
projects 45% annual growth to a market volume of
Contribution (NDC) target of 1.2 TW wind and solar
647 GW in 2024. The scenario is based on the
capacity – 6 years in advance, and just another example
following assumptions: policy makers, businesses and
of China overshooting its solar targets. For more
individuals have learned their lessons from the energy
insights on the Chinese market, see our focus chapter
crisis, with key markets continuing to implement
at p. 61 and the CPIA article at p. 84.
strategic decisions in line with renewable energy
commitments made in 2022-2023. A continuous In APAC without China, India accounted for a quarter
oversupply will further provide very low-price of all installed capacity in 2023 and is expected to
modules, inverters and batteries further unlocking sustain a similar 24% market share in 2024. After the
price-elastic demand, igniting strong growth in market contraction occurred in 2023, we expect a
emerging and new markets. China will not limit growth rebound in 2024 with 19 GW and a 51% growth. This
of its solar market in a strategic move to support its aligns with the government’s ambitions since 2022 to
domestic solar industry at a time the country faces reach 280 GW by 2030. Achieving this target would
low economic growth rates and Chinese require the annual market to grow rapidly, averaging
manufacturers are confronted with trade barriers in over 27 GW per year between 2024 and 2030. This
various international markets. growth is also meant to support local manufacturing
of solar PV, funded under the government’s PLI
scheme. Considering India’s vast and largely untapped

solar potential and the availability of stockpiled GW-level in 2024: the Philippines, with a eight-fold
products ahead of the re-introduced local content growth to 1.5 GW, and Uzbekistan, with a nine-fold
measures for modules, bridging the gap until large increase to 1.2 GW, highlighting the dynamism in the
volumes of domestically produced products become APAC market. On the contrary, South Korea's political
available, our High Scenario projects an increase to shift towards inflexible nuclear energy and a massive
over 24 GW installed in 2024. reduction of its renewable target have negatively
impacted its solar market. The market is expected to
Different developments are expected across most
further progress on its downturn path, by 16% in 2024,
Asia-Pacific GW markets in 2024. Japan is projected
reaching 2.5 GW.
to grow by 7% to a 6.7 GW market, demonstrating
remarkable resilience under less favourable market APAC including China will dominate global demand
conditions. Australia is expected to increase by 22% even more in 2024, as we expect 2% growth to a
to reach 6.2 GW, while Taiwan is set to reach 3 GW with global share of 70% (see Fig. 25). But this is likely not
a 10% growth rate. Pakistan will continue its growth to be attributed to China’s market share, which is
trajectory with a 12% increase in 2024, reaching 1.4 expected to drop slightly from 57% to 55% in 2024.
GW. Malaysia is estimated to achieve the GW scale in Without China, the region’s share is projected to
2024 with a 22% growth. Additionally, two countries increase by 4 percentage points, from 11% to 15%.
are anticipated to surge from about 100 MW to the
FIGURE 25 REGIONAL SHARES OF GLOBAL SOLAR MARKET 2022-2024
100
3% 3% 3%
90
80
40%
70 55%
57%
60
%
50
20%
40
11% 15%
30
17%
20 13% 13%
10 19%
16% 14%
0
2022 2023 2024
Europe AMER APAC without China China MEA

Europe’s market is projected to experience resilient, with an increase expected despite the
continuous growth in 2024. After it added 70.1 GW in lowering of residential incentives, while Spain shows
2023, Europe is expected to add 77 GW in 2024, a 10% signs of decline in both utility- and residential scale,
annual market increase. However, due to China’s after solar reached a 17% share in the electricity mix
dominance, the continent’s market share will shrink in 2023. Further details on the EU-27 market as a
by 2 percentage points to 14%. The EU is driving solar whole are provided on p. 87.
growth through its Green Deal and REPowerEU
Among non-EU countries, Türkiye is expected to
initiatives, aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050. The
maintain its significant market growth, installing 2.7 GW
invasion of Ukraine by Russia has created momentum
in 2023 (+69%) and projected to install 4.6 GW in 2024
for several European countries to prioritise low-cost
(+68%). This unprecedented growth pace is also driven
and versatile solar power as a means to reduce
by the government’s increased ambition to support its
dependence on Russian gas and improve energy
local solar manufacturing industry. The recent relaxation
security. Today, power prices are getting close to pre-
of rules surrounding unlicenced installations has created
energy crisis levels, and the reduction of gas
a new wave of installations in early 2024 by enabling a
dependency is no longer the main driver. Instead,
better business case for self-consumption installations.
enabling regulatory frameworks and a profitable
The United Kingdom is set to reach 2.4 GW in 2024
business case for solar PV need to sustain market
(+33%), cementing its position as the second-largest
growth, which, at 5% in the EU-27 for 2024, will be
non-EU market. In third place, rooftop-driven
much lower than in the recent “emergency” times.
Switzerland is anticipated to add 1.9 GW in 2024, a 23%
Within the EU-27, 19 out of 27 markets are projected annual growth. Overall, Europe’s solar market is poised
to install more solar capacity than the year before, in for growth, driven by legislative initiatives and energy
contrast to the 26 markets that grew year-on-year in transition plans that will drive further electrification, grid
2023. Germany’s dominance is expected to continue capacity, and flexibility measures. Despite facing
with a 7% market growth to 16.1 GW, demonstrating challenges such as regulatory instability and grid
its maturity after the 104% jump to 15 GW in 2023. congestion, Europe will remain an important market on
Spain and Italy are estimated to remain in second and the global solar map in 2024 and beyond. This is
third positions respectively, with the Spanish market especially true for international manufacturers, who find
projected to decrease by 12% in 2024 and the Italian it easier to export their solar products to this region
market to increase by 13%. The Italian market proves compared to other large markets.
Residential PV in Germany. © Enpal

The Americas’ market share will remain stable at 13% Despite a number of challenges, including increasing
in 2024, allowing the continent to maintain its position PV costs, trade tensions, the reform of net metering in
as the third largest region for solar installations, with a California, and the upcoming presidential election, the
total of 70.3 GW. This market share closely aligns with United States remains one of the most attractive
Europe’s, as the Americas will see a strong increase of locations for solar investments today. Our Medium
11.5 GW in absolute installations (see Fig. 26). The Scenario predicts a 27% growth in solar capacity to
primary driver behind solar deployment in the 41.3 GW this year.
Americas is the United States, which is expected to
In Brazil, the second most important market in the
hold a 59% share in 2024, up from 55% in 2023.
Americas, the outlook for this year appears somewhat
The August 2022 passed IRA demonstrates the Biden less promising than last year, which showed
Administration’s strategy to transform the US into a exceptional growth. In 2024, the less favourable
global clean energy powerhouse. The ITC and recent investment environment and the 2023 change in net-
interconnection reforms are major drivers of solar metering legislation are set to impact the market,
growth, both on the installation and manufacturing which we expect to decrease 4% to 14.9 GW.
side. Bolstered by the IRA, significant investments in
Chile and Mexico shared the fourth place in the
new factories have been announced by both domestic
Americas in 2023, with 1.7 GW installed each. While
companies and solar technology leaders from abroad.
Chile's market decreased by 10% from 1.8 GW, Mexico's
FIGURE 26 REGIONAL PV DEVELOPMENTS 2023-2024
350
299
300
253
250
200
GW
150
100 80 77
70 70
59
50
50
17 15
0
China APAC Europe AMER MEA
without China
2024 2023

market increased by 40% from 1.2 GW, despite the security potential of solar power, leading to an upsurge
challenging political environment for renewable energy in solar activities throughout the area. As such, 47 out
deployment. However, the conditions of 2023 do not of 63 analysed markets are forecasted to experience
apply to 2024, and an 18% market decline to 1.4 GW can positive market growth, compared to 39 in 2023.
be expected in Mexico. On the other hand, Chile is set to
regain pace, with an 8% growth reaching 1.8 GW in 2024,
Global solar market developments 2025-2028
although the lack of transmission lines still pose a major
challenge for mid-term solar market growth. We anticipate substantial demand growth for solar PV
power in the years 2025-2028, driven by further cost
The increase in installations in 2023 resulted in a stable
improvements, product availability, and the numerous
market share for the Middle East and Africa at 3%. The
benefits the technology provides. Climate emergency will
situation is expected to be similar this year. With the
continue to capture governments’ attention, while energy
addition of 17.1 GW, the region is projected to
security will remain a compelling argument to invest in
experience a 15% annual growth. The main contributor
solar power in a quickly fragmenting world order.
is South Africa, which, for the second year in a row, may
add more than one-fifth of all MEA installed capacity, At COP28 in December 2023, policy leaders committed
reaching 3.5 GW. Unlike last year, this capacity is not to tripling global renewable energy capacity to at least
matched by the United Arab Emirates, which will no 11 TW by 2030 and doubling the annual rate of energy
longer be among the three GW-sized markets. In 2024, efficiency improvements from 2% to 4%. According to
the UAE is expected to account for 5% of the installed the IRENA, this target equals to around 5.5 TW solar
capacity (0.8 GW), compared to 21% in 2023 (3.1 GW), capacity, and highlights substantial growth
simply because no major PV power plant projects are opportunities for solar PV, which is expected to
expected to be grid-connected this year. contribute significantly (see Fig. 34 for an overview of
PV cumulative capacity scenarios by 2030). As the
Besides South Africa, Saudi Arabia is projected to be
pledge includes only few details about the required
the other GW-sized market in 2024. After growing
infrastructure, energy storage or solar targets, it remains
400% in 2023 to a level of 1.9 GW, in 2024 the market
hard to judge its actual impact, particularly in developing
is expected to decline by 20%, which means still GW-
countries. Nonetheless, it creates certainty about the
scale at 1.5 GW. Despite this, many smaller markets in
future global solar market demand, and a growing trend
the region, all with very favourable irradiation
is all we can see in the near-term horizon. The real
conditions, are increasingly recognising the cost
question is the inclination of that growth curve.
advantages, business opportunities, and energy
107 MW, Port Augusta, Australia. © Iberdrola

FIGURE 27 WORLD ANNUAL SOLAR PV MARKET SCENARIOS 2024-2028
1,200
1,112
13%
1,000
12% 876
12% 773
800
13% 687 668
647
22% 614
GW
600 544
447 461
400
200
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Medium Scenario
Compared to our previous Global Market Outlook, In the High Scenario, higher adoption of solar across
aggregate annual solar additions between 2025 and most regions leads to annual growth rates of 15-16%,
2027 have been increased from 1.6 TW to 2.1 TW. lifting annual additions beyond the 1 TW level already by
At the same time, annual growth rates have been 2028. This scenario is based on similar considerations
lowered, reflecting our assessment that the surge in as for 2024. We assume that energy market designs are
2023 could have been the beginning of another quickly adapted to the needs of renewables, and grid
market development phase after an extraordinary infrastructure, storage and flexibility solutions will be
growth period fuelled by post-pandemic product deployed rapidly to limit curtailment and falling capture
availability and the energy crisis. We expect slightly rates of solar power. On the contrary, our Low Scenario
lower growth rates in the range of 12-13% between assumes that necessary policy frameworks and
2025 and 2028, compared to previously forecasted infrastructure upgrades continue to lag behind, while
15-16% in the period 2025-2027. Our Medium changes to less progressive governments, and
Scenario projects the global market to reach 614 GW culminating trade issues negatively impact solar
in 2025, a 13% increase from 544 GW in 2024 (Fig. 27). expansion. Such a scenario translates into lower growth
Looking forward, the Medium Scenario anticipates rates of 8-10% to reach annual installations of 668 GW
12% increase to 687 GW in 2026, 12% to 773 GW in in 2028, 40% less than in the High Scenario, and 24%
2027, and 13% to 876 GW in 2028. less than our Medium Scenario.

FIGURE 28 WORLD CUMULATIVE SOLAR PV MARKET SCENARIOS 2024-2028
7,000
6,000 5,920
21%
5,117
5,000 22%
4,421
4,241
25%
4,000
3,469
GW
28%
2,167
3,000 2,270
2,781
33%
2,085
2,000 1,624
1,000
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Medium Scenario
After surpassing the 1.6 TW level in 2023, the global 57% in 2023, China's share is projected to
solar power fleet is on track to exceed 2 TW by 2024 progressively decline – to 55% in 2024, 50% in 2026,
(see Fig. 28). Our Medium Scenario estimates the and 48% by 2028. We had forecasted that trend earlier
following milestones: 2.2 TW in 2024, 2.8 TW in 2025, – and although China proved us wrong several times,
3.5 TW in 2026, 4.2 TW in 2027, and 5.1 TW in 2028 – we believe that today’s very low capex needs for
numbers that are all significantly higher than systems paired with attractive LCOEs will create a
forecasted in last year’s GMO (see Box 1 at p. 78). strong momentum for emerging and new markets.
Our latest market share expectations for China over
Under optimal conditions, total global solar capacity
the coming years are 14 to 15 percentage points
could even reach 3 TW in 2025 and potentially 5.9 TW
higher than in last year’s GMO.
by the end of 2028, while this year’s Low Scenario in
2027 is more ambitious than our Medium Scenario in Despite the European Union's 2030 solar targets and
the previous GMO – 3.8 GW vs. 3.5 GW. In our Low several policy framework improvements for the
Scenario, total solar capacity in 2028 reaches 4.4 GW, technology, solar in Europe is anticipated to grow
which is nearly three times the total capacity in 2023. slightly slower than in other regions. It will lose 2%
market share, from 16% in 2023 to 14% by 2027 and
From 2024 to 2028, the global solar PV market is
2028, significantly below the 19% we had assumed
expected to see regional growth dynamics somewhat
earlier for 2027.
change compared to last year’s GMO. After peaking at

FIGURE 29 EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL ANNUAL SOLAR PV MARKET SHARES UNTIL 2028
100 3% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6%
90
80
70 55% 53% 50% 49% 48%

57%
60
%
50
40
16% 17% 18% 18%
11% 15%
30
13% 13% 13% 13% 13%
20 14%
10 16% 14% 14% 15% 14% 14%

0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Europe AMER APAC without China China MEA
Conversely, the Americas will defend its 13% share for The composition of the top 20 markets with the highest
the next four years before it gains 1 percentage point 5-year installation potential sees only minor changes
to 14% in 2028. The United States and Brazil will from the previous edition (see Fig. 29). Among the top
continue to be the foundation of the continent’s 10, Brazil surpassed Spain to enter the top 5, Italy moved
growth, which will be flanked by more contributions up from 10th to 9th position, and Türkiye entered the top
of more Latin American countries in the coming years. 10, rising from the 18th place last year. The second half
of the ranking has two newcomers – South Africa and
The APAC region without China is expected to
Romania replaced the UAE and Chile.
experience the largest absolute regional growth. Due
to its high population and largely untapped solar Again, this graph shows the outstanding position of
potential, we see its share increasing from 11% in 2023 China, which is expected to add almost 1.8 TW in the
to 18% in 2028. India will stand out, with its market most likely scenario during the period 2024-2028. This
growing nearly four-fold between 2023 and 2028. is more than double last year’s expectations of 873
GW and exceeds the 2023 global cumulative solar PV
Though on a much smaller level, MEA is projected to
installations of 1.6 TW. It is also 75% higher than the
see the largest relative gain, doubling its market share
combined additions of all other countries in the
from 3% in 2023 to 6% in 2028, which will be driven
ranking and six times more than the United States, the
by large projects in the Middle East.
second largest market, which is expected to add

FIGURE 30 TOP 20 MARKETS SOLAR PV ADDITIONS 2024-2028
2,119
China 1,510
1,766
366
US 289
192
195
India 152
111
115
Germany 104
85
109
Brazil 79
59
52
Spain 46
32
58
Australia 43
32
49
Japan 42
34
43
Italy 35
25
45
Türkiye 30
22
41
France 28
19
29
Poland 23
18
25
Netherlands 21
16
24
South Africa 19
15
21
Taiwan 18
14
21
Greece 16
10
20
UK 16
11
High Scenario
23
Saudi Arabia 15
11 Medium Scenario
19 Low Scenario
Romania 15
9
19
South Korea 14
10
0 100 200 300 400 500 1,500 2,000 2,500

GW

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289 GW (+37 GW compared to last year’s edition). Our weather radar shows rain only for South Korea,
Following China and the United States, India is which, along with Japan, is the only country with a one-
estimated to install 152 GW (+7 GW) and Germany 104 digit CAGR. But South Korea has installed much less
GW (+16 GW). Each of these four leading countries is solar capacity than Japan. The government’s decision
projected to add over 100 GW in the next five years, to prioritise expansion of its nuclear fleet over
up from three countries last year. renewables in 2023 was accompanied by a strong
reduction of its overall renewable energy target from
Driven by China, the top 20 global markets are
30.2% to 21.6% by 2030. Ranked 14th in last year’s
expected to install 2.8 TW over the next five years,
report, we see South Korea now as the least promising
which is 1 TW more than projected in our Global
of the top 20 solar markets. Its CAGR decreased from
Market Outlook 2023, representing an 80% increase.
11% to 9% after our installation estimate was cut to 13.8
Collectively, these markets will account for 88% of
GW, nearly half of what we anticipated one year ago.
global new installations, up from 83% last year. Looking
at the top 20 markets without China reveals a France’s solar story has been mostly disappointing
different growth trajectory. Our picture hasn’t considering its huge potential – being one of Europe’s
changed much as we expect these 19 countries to leading economies with vast space and plenty of
install just over 1 TW, an 11% increase from 903 GW sunshine. While the majority of upcoming installations
projected in the last GMO. are anticipated to be ground-mounted, they are meant
to take place in designated go-to areas, which are not
The minimum 5-year capacity additions to enter the
yet fully defined. Agri-PV also holds significant potential
top 20 has increased again: countries need at least 14
but remains a subject of heated debate in the country,
GW, compared to 12 GW last year. Moreover, 13
currently hindering the emergence of very large solar
countries are now expected to install at least 20 GW,
power plants. Considering the slow pace of legislative
up from 12 countries last year.
progression, we have a cloudy outlook for the country,
Under the Low Scenario, the top 20 markets are which, by 2028, is expected to have only less than two-
forecasted to add 2.2 TW until 2028, while in the High thirds of the installed capacity of Spain, and less than a
Scenario they are expected to install 3.4 TW, of which third of the German installed power fleet.
China would contribute 2.1 TW.
Despite a 17% CAGR and higher expected installed
Our weather forecast for the top 20 countries capacity, some clouds are appearing on the Italian
anticipates a sunny policy and market outlook in most skies. In May 2024, the government enacted a decree
of the world’s leading solar markets. Only four banning large-scale solar installations on productive
countries are facing clouds or even rain on the horizon, agricultural land, although the ban is not applied
one more than last year, while two countries are now retroactively, protecting some of the projects in the
expected to experience single-digit annual growth pipeline, and Agri-PV projects are not affected. Still, the
rates, compared to one last year (Fig. 31). government intervention poses a significant barrier on
the way to meet the country’s 2030 solar target.
For most of the listed countries, we expect compound
annual growth rates (CAGRs) around 20% or above New uncertainties also loom over the Netherlands as
and, as last year, the highest five-year growth rate is the new government plans to terminate the country's
expected in Saudi Arabia, now at 42% CAGR. Long successful net-metering scheme for residential
delayed, the sunny oil nation reached the GW-scale for customers. Now set to end in 2026, the country is
newly installed capacity for the first time in 2023, and expected to face a boom-and-bust period in the next
the completion of numerous GW-scale projects might few years, something the industry would have liked to
mark the turnaround point towards reaching its 40 GW avoid. It rather preferred a gradual phase-out enabling
target by 2030. At the other end of the spectrum, the market to adapt and provide time to build up the
Japan stands out again with a relatively low CAGR of much needed residential storage market, which has
only 8%, the same as last year. Still, Japan is a mature been incompatible with the net-metering scheme.
solar market with a large installation base, and our
The cloudy skies we saw last year over Brazil and
growth projections for the next five years see
Türkiye have now cleared. Changes to the net-
additions of nearly 42 GW, more than most other
metering scheme for distributed systems in early
countries in the top 20 list.

FIGURE 31 TOP SOLAR PV MARKETS’ PROSPECTS
Country 2023 By 2028 2024-2028 2024-2028 Political

Total capacity Total capacity New capacity Compound support
(MW) Medium (MW) annual growth prospects
Scenario (MW) rate (%)
China 656,045 2,422,149 1,766,104 30%
United States 173,185 462,443 289,258 22%
India 90,069 241,738 151,669 22%
Germany 82,979 186,498 103,519 18%
Brazil 39,443 118,356 78,913 25%
Spain 36,273 82,251 45,978 18%
Australia 36,109 79,043 42,934 17%
Japan 90,357 131,889 41,532 8%
Italy 29,844 64,388 34,544 17%
Türkiye 12,239 42,553 30,314 28%
France 18,912 47,401 28,489 20%
Poland 16,832 39,442 22,610 19%
Netherlands 22,916 44,061 21,145 14%
South Africa 9,291 28,634 19,343 25%
Taiwan 12,443 30,591 18,148 20%
Greece 7,149 23,436 16,287 27%
United Kingdom 17,697 33,419 15,722 14%
Saudi Arabia 3,181 18,649 15,468 42%
Romania 3,350 18,130 14,780 40%
South Korea 27,252 41,100 13,848 9%
2023 initially raised concerns about Brazil’s continued effectively simplified bureaucratic procedures for
market growth. But the 41% growth in 2023 and the consumers to harness solar energy for self-
installation of 7.5 GW in the first quarter of 2024 have consumption. Mainly thanks to its growing rooftop PV
eliminated our doubts for the moment. Regarding segment, the country is poised to almost double its
Türkiye, important regulatory amendments have 2023 annual market by adding 4.5 GW this year.

Box 1: Looking back and forth which installed just 3% less than our 200 GW forecast.
However, the graph shows a history of
underestimating solar market growth, and upward
This year’s Global Market Outlook offers a significantly revisions for each new edition.
more upbeat outlook than the GMO 2023 projections,
The forecast for newly installed capacity in 2024 has
which underestimated the acceleration in the solar
been revised to 544 GW, a 143 GW increase from the
industry, despite our previous forecast was more
previous year's projection of 401 GW. In our GMO 2021,
optimistic than most solar analysts'. As shown in Fig.
our 2024 outlook was less than half the new capacity
32, our annual market forecast of 341 GW for 2023 in
we expect today. Just one edition ago, surpassing 500
last year’s GMO turned out to be 106 GW lower than
GW was estimated to occur only by 2026. Our latest
actual installed solar capacities. This strong
Medium Scenario outlook has increased by 33% to
underestimation comes mainly from getting one
614 GW for 2025, by 29% to 687 GW for 2026, and by
market’s growth wrong – the Chinese solar market
25% to 773 GW for 2027. Our current Medium
grew 112 GW more than expected. Without China, our
Scenario forecasts are roughly twice as much as we
estimates were almost right for the “rest of the world”,
expected only 2 years ago, in the GMO 2022.
FIGURE 32 COMPARISON MEDIUM SCENARIO GMO 2024 VS PREVIOUS GMO EDITIONS
900 876
800 773
687
700
614 617
600
544 534
500 462
447
GW
401
400
341 347
314
300 283 266
256 239
225
200
200 184
100
0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
GMO 2020 GMO 2021 GMO 2022 GMO 2023 GMO 2024

Segments 2023-2028 GW). Globally, the utility-scale segment represented 56%
of all new installations in 2023, up from 50.1% in 2022.
The key drivers behind the rooftop and large-scale
segments have shifted dynamics in recent years. In Numerous other countries made significant progress
2022, high module prices forced developers to in their utility-scale solar installations in 2023. The
postpone installations of large-scale projects, while United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia both
high retail electricity prices boosted rooftop connected several utility-scale plants, achieving 2.9
deployment. A year later, in 2023, a sharp decrease in GW (+544%) and 1.7 GW (+383%) respectively. Both
module prices spurred large-scale installations, while countries are almost fully relying on large-scale solar
a ‘normalisation’ trend of energy prices towards pre- projects to meet their climate goals. Several other
energy crisis levels slowed demand for rooftop countries also managed to double their utility-scale
systems toward the end of the year. market: Sweden (+403%), South Africa (+136%), Italy
and Poland (+103% each). While the United States
While both the utility-scale and rooftop segments experienced an 18% decrease in annual installations
experienced strong growth in 2023, utility-scale solar in 2022 due to various trade and supply challenges,
stood out as the largest and most dynamic segment. The the support from the IRA helped the segment to
decrease in module prices was a significant factor, recover. The United States large-scale segment grew
backing a 110% increase to 251 GW in the segment, up to 22.6 GW in 2023, up from 13.8 GW in 2022 (+64%).
from 120 GW the previous year. Many projects that had This growth is expected to continue, reaching 55.9 GW
been delayed due to high module prices, supply chain and by 2028, maintaining its position as the second-
EPC bottlenecks in 2021-2022 were realised in 2023. largest utility-scale market in the world after China.
Looking at markets, the key factor was the surge of large-
scale projects that were connected at the end of 2023 in In 2024, we anticipate the worldwide solar utility-
China, growing by 236% year-on-year. Large-scale solar in scale segment to achieve 300 GW, reflecting a 20%
China accounted for 58% of all utility-scale projects annual growth rate, and market share of 55%. Over the
connected to the grid worldwide. The year also marked a coming years the ground-mounted solar segment will
turning point for the world leading solar market, as the continue its ascent – reaching 346 GW (56% share) in
large-scale segment surpassed rooftop capacity 2025; 391 GW (57%) in 2026; 446 GW (58%) in 2027;
additions, with 146 GW in 2023 (+103 GW compared to and 513 GW (59% share) in 2028.
2022), compared to 107 GW for rooftop installations (+56
100 MW, Puertollano, Spain. © Iberdrola

1 Global solar market - Segments 2023-2028 / continued
While there is increasing resistance to large-scale power market share, representing 44% of all new PV
plants in densely populated countries, stakeholders have installations in 2023, down from 49.1% in 2022.
been working on manifold solutions – from involving
The rooftop segment showed varying trends across
locals in the planning process, hiring residents for
different countries, with several among the top 20 solar
construction and even sharing some profits. Industry
markets installing fewer rooftop systems than in the
associations have created best practice guidelines to
previous year. The most significant declines were
enable solar plant building in harmony with nature to
observed for Spain (-43%), India (-32%), and Poland (-
support biodiversity and optimise land-use. Though still
25%). While the first two have been traditionally ground-
in their infancy, multiple-use applications like Agri-PV
mount solar territory, Poland’s solar market has been
and Floating Solar or hybrid renewable plants are further
built on rooftop systems. In both European countries,
diversification trends for large-scale solar. However,
issues with incentive schemes were the main cause for
where space is no issue, we are increasingly seeing very
the hefty market share losses. Though the share of
large-scale ground-mounted power plant large-scale
China’s rooftop segment contracted in 2023, it was still
ground-mounted power plants, that will be increasingly
109% larger than the year before, and leading the world
linked to green hydrogen production are likely to
by far with 107 GW of newly building-attached capacity.
contribute to this trend in the final years of the decade.
Most of the major solar markets experienced strong
growth in their rooftop segment, in particular in Europe,
Rooftop Solar
that was most heavily impacted by the energy crisis.
In parallel, the growing rooftop market continued to Many countries had improved policy frameworks to
demonstrate strong interest from the residential and accelerate solar rooftop installations – and these were
commercial sectors to generate and self-consume often still available in 2023. The largest growth in Europe’s
electricity. Despite the lingering effects of the energy rooftop segment took place in Austria (+175%), Germany
crisis through 2023, the huge unbuilt project pipeline (+138%), Italy (+113%), and Sweden (+93%). The South
and quickly falling product prices spurred installations African rooftop market also surged with three-digit rates
for a large part of the year. This resulted in 196 GW being (+164%). Triggered by numerous load-shedding events
connected in 2023, up from 120 GW the previous year. throughout the year, households and businesses
With the biggest driver – very high energy prices – increasingly invested in solar PV and battery storage to
continuously decreasing, rooftop PV systems lost protect themselves from very frequent blackouts.
O&M at Adelschlag Solar park, 3.3 MW. Adelschlag, Germany. © BayWa r.e.

The introduction of solar mandates to put solar on building renovations, and as of 2030 public bodies must
buildings in several countries could further boost the retroactively install PV on their buildings.
rooftop market, as could the electrification of the
Consequently, the forecast for rooftop solar
transport and heating sector, with many countries
development looks bright. In 2024, the rooftop segment
promoting heat pumps to decarbonise heating.
is expected to increase to 243 GW, representing a 24%
Additionally, residential and commercial power
growth from 2023. In the following years, we anticipate
consumers are evolving into prosumers, PV modules are
a slight slowdown in the growth rate, with annual
starting to become building materials, and smart cities
increases ranging from 10% to 11%. As energy prices
are embracing small-scale distributed solar combined
return to lower levels in Europe, we are already
with storage and digital solutions. Several sub-national
observing a slowdown in demand in the first months of
actors have followed California’s example of mandating
2024. Nevertheless, the annual installed rooftop
solar installations in new-build homes. In March 2024,
capacity is forecasted to increase to 268 GW in 2025,
the European Parliament adopted the solar mandates
and up to 363 GW in 2028 in our Medium Scenario,
as part of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive.
representing an 85% growth from 2023 levels.
As of 2026, Member States will have to gradually
implement requirements for solar installations in
FIGURE 33 SOLAR PV ROOFTOP AND UTILITY-SCALE SEGMENTS SCENARIOS 2024-2028
600 Rooftop solar 600 Utility-scale solar
513
500 500
400 400
363
300
GW
GW
300 300
243 251
196
200 200
100 100
0 0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Historical Medium Scenario

1 Global solar market - Solar outlook to 2030
Solar outlook to 2030 A key achievement of COP28 in Dec. 2023 was an

agreement of over 130 countries, including the G7, on
Our GMO forecasts traditionally have a 5-year horizon, a first concrete target for renewables by 2030 –
which ends in 2028 for this edition. As 2030 is tripling capacity to 11 TW. Though no breakdown for
considered an important milestone on the way to the different technologies was given, solar will play the
climate neutrality later this century, several national major role, as it has been adding more capacities than
and multi-national government bodies have set any other power generation technology for the past
renewables and climate targets for that year; a good years. IRENA estimates that solar PV will contribute 5.5
reason for us to look into the solar goals and market TW or half to the 11 TW in 2030, up from 1.6 GW at the
estimates of major stakeholders. end of 2023 (see Fig. 34).7
FIGURE 34 GLOBAL INSTALLED RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY IN THE 1.5 C° SCENARIO,
2023 AND 2030
2023 2030
Other RE: 4% Other RE: 6%
Wind: 25% Wind: 32%
4,085 GW 11,173 GW
Hydro: 31%
Hydro: 13%
Solar PV: 40% Solar PV: 49%
Source: SolarPower Europe (2024), IRENA (2024). © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024
7 IRENA (2023): World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023.

But is this estimate for 2030 realistic? What seems To put things into perspective: any global solar market
ambitious at first sight, would mean average solar analysis has been severely underestimating growth,
additions of 558 GW per year to install 3.9 TW by 2030, that included us (see Box 1 p. 48), though the best-
an annual level we expect to be almost met in 2024. known example is the IEA annual flagship report, the
Would it be be realistic that there will be no growth for World Energy Outlook (WEO) (see Fig. 35).
any of the coming years until 2030?
FIGURE 35 IEA WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK FORECASTS VERSUS ACTUAL HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF SOLAR PV
7,000
6,000 NZE Scenario
5,000
WEO 2023
4,000
GW
3,000 WEO 2022

WEO 2021
2,000 WEO 2020

WEO 2019
1,624
WEO 2018
1,177
937 WEO 2017
1,000 773 WEO 2016
634 WEO 2015
517 WEO 2014
312 413 WEO 2013
WEO 2012
136 177 234 WEO
WEO 2011
2010
5 7 14 22 39 69 98 WEO 2009
WEO 2008
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
WEO 2023 NZE Actual development
Source: IEA (2008-2023). Note on scenarios considered: for WEO 2008 and 2009, the Reference
Scenario; for WEO 2010 to 2018, the New Policies Scenario; for WEO 2019 to 2023, the Stated
Policies Scenario; NZE is the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, updated in 2023. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

1 Solar outlook to 2030 / continued
When analysing historical market data between 2010 market levels before 2030 for both our Medium
and 2023, PV additions almost doubled every 3 years. Scenario and High Scenario. Our Medium Scenario
The deployment pace even accelerated in the 2 years would reach the TW mark in 2029, the optimistic one
after the pandemic to annual growth rates of 46% in already in 2028; only the Low Scenario would remain
2022 and almost 90% in 2023. Simply extrapolating below the TW level by 2030, reaching 810 GW at that
our 2024-2028 scenarios to 2030 shows annual TW time (see Fig. 36).
FIGURE 36 SOLAR GROWTH SCENARIOS – TOWARDS 1 TW ANNUAL GLOBAL MARKET BY 2030
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
GW/year
1,000 GW/year
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2028 2030
Note: Installation volumes beyond 2028 are based on a simple extrapolation of each 2024-2028 scenario to 2030. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

However, any of the most recent 2030 estimates of BloombergNEF presenting the most optimistic
leading solar analysts has been somewhat higher than assumptions of 6.3 GW, when excluding our “simple”
the numbers in IRENA’s COP28 report, with extrapolation of our Medium Scenario that stands out
at 7.4 GW.
FIGURE 37 GLOBAL SOLAR PV CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY SCENARIOS 2030
8.0 100
7.4
90
7.0
77% 6.3
6.1 80
6.0 5.8
5.5 70
59%
5.0
60
TW
4.0 50
40
3.0
30
2.0
20
1.0
10
0 0
IRENA S&P Global IEA BNEF SolarPower
Europe
2023 Medium Scenario 2030 installed PV capacity
Share of RE in electricity generation
Source: IRENA (2023), S&P Global (2024), IEA (2023), BNEF (2024) and SolarPower Europe (2024).
Note: SolarPower Europe value reflects a simple extrapolation of the GMO Medium Scenario 2024-2028 to 2030. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

1 Solar outlook to 2030 / continued
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2
GSC Policy recommendations
© Enpal.
Policy Recommendations for Global Solar • Ensure finance flows align with investment needs
PV Deployment Investments are not flowing at the pace, scale, or to
Solar PV’s scalability and cost-effectiveness make it the geographies, needed for global energy access
an ideal solution to keep pace with growth in power or achieve the energy transition. 12 trillion USD are
demand and address the needs of the urgent and just needed to deliver the global target of tripling
global energy transition to clean energy. Despite the renewable energy by 2030. It is crucial to increase
exponential growth of solar PV in the last decade, public funding for solar PV projects and encourage
several challenges remain that hinder deployment to private investment to achieve low-cost solar
its full potential. The Global Solar Council encourages finance. Multilateral Development Banks and
policymakers to urgently adopt the recommendations bilateral Development Finance Institutions should
below in order to foster a supportive policy be supported to scale up their project financing and
environment for solar at the global level and address de-risking instruments, especially to enable solar in
the barriers slowing down its deployment: regions where energy access remains a challenge.
We also need to engage as a sector with the major
• Encourage solar PV deployment across all market private investors in order to resolve any challenges
segments, and set national targets that match its they have when investing in PV e.g. small project
full potential sizes, standardisation, ESG.
Realising the deployment potential of solar PV will • Unleash a flexibility revolution by scaling-up
require clear, ambitious, and binding targets, investment in battery storage, grids and
supported by policies, regulations and financing electrification
mechanisms. Clear and stable policies are essential
for attracting investors and low-cost financing. The unprecedented pace of newly added solar and
Retroactive changes should, by all means, be renewables is rapidly and fundamentally changing
avoided as this will spoil investor appetite and stall energy systems, and requires next level investment
market growth. Whilst support schemes such as in energy system flexibility. Failing to plan for these
feed-in tariffs, or green certificates can help boost changes equals planning for failure. As renewables
solar deployment in the short term, they must be grow at all voltage levels and electrification
complemented with structural regulatory accelerates – offering new and high potential for
improvements in auction schemes and electricity flexibility – grid planning is more important than ever.
market reform. In addition, governments should Coordinating grid upgrades with capacity addition
support solar innovations, and new applications schedules is key to avoiding the curtailment of solar
such as off-grid solar, Agri-PV, floating PV, and projects and creating continued market certainty
Building Integrated PV to fully unleash the solar for investors. System operators should develop
potential in their countries..

2 GSC Policy recommendations / continued
tools to assess and plan for future flexibility needs, • Scale up and diversify low-cost and resilient solar
both on transmission and distribution levels, PV supply chains
including assessing how distributed solar PV and
Significant efforts should be made to diversify
storage reduce the need for high-voltage
supply chains, aligning national and regional
transmission lines by bringing generation closer to
initiatives to reach free, fair, open, and resilient global
consumption. It will also allow the integration of
supply chains based on international standards. It
many flexibility measures, like battery storage and
should be robust, cost-effective and can adequately
demand response, that can accommodate and
support the growing demand for solar globally.
manage new capacities of solar energy.
Countries should increase investor confidence by
Establishing a global storage target is a critical step, as combining energy transition strategies with policies
it provides a clear roadmap for investment and that reward sustainable and resilient supply chains,
development. Targets like the one announced by the while promoting open trade, international
G7 to install 1,500 GW of global energy storage by cooperation, cost reductions and sustainable growth
2030 – a sixfold increase from today’s levels – is a step of the global solar PV market. Additionally, countries
in the right direction and should be adopted at the need to invest in research and development and
UNFCCC level to complement the COP triple foster innovation through government funding,
renewables goal. In addition, interconnections with private sector incentives, and international
other countries can be a mutually beneficial way for collaboration. It paves the way for technological
one party to balance their grid, and the other to secure breakthroughs that result in advanced
access to cost-competitive solar electricity, making manufacturing processes, resource efficiency
regional integration of electricity systems and improvements, and increased environmental
markets a viable way to increase solar penetration. sustainability, all of which contribute to the
affordability and widespread adoption of solar PV.
3.3 MW, Adelschlag, Germany. © BayWa r.e.

• Streamline permitting schemes to accelerate solar facilities is a key part of the solution, and ideally it
PV deployment would feed the output material into local supply
chains to service new raw materials, products and
It’s crucial to harmonise permitting procedures
renewable energy equipment.
across the country for all grid operators and for all
regions. The permitting process can be further • Nurture the development of solar skills to match
simplified and expedited by establishing “one-stop the needs of sector growth
shops” and include maximum waiting times after
The solar PV sector is a significant source of job
which permits are automatically granted.
creation. IRENA estimates solar PV employment at
Permitting for solar PV projects in many countries
4.9 million in 2022 globally, which is the highest in
can take any time between two weeks and several
relation to any other power generation technology.
years, so it is important to build trust with
As the sector grows, so does the need for skilled
consumers and developers by showing
workers to manufacture, install, and maintain solar
transparency in the review methodology and
PV systems. By investing in training programmes
decision-making process, and by providing
and educational initiatives focused on solar
guarantees of connection to the grid. In addition,
technology, governments and organisations can
the administrative burden of permitting procedures
equip individuals with the necessary skills to fill
should be flexible and dependent on multiple
these in-demand positions. This not only fuels the
variables like location and available infrastructure,
growth of the solar PV sector but also empowers
or on the size of the installation, ensuring that
individuals to participate in the clean energy
processes for rooftop solar and mini-grids are
revolution, creating a more sustainable and
quicker than those for utility-scale.
equitable future for all.
• Adopt sustainable Environmental, Social and
The global nature of the solar sector requires
Governance (ESG) practices based on global
harmonisation and consistency in skills
standards and multi-stakeholder initiatives
development and certification. Solar energy
Governments should set clear regulations and projects are implemented across borders, with
standards on ESG practices, complemented by due companies and workers often crossing national and
diligence processes and a clear route-to- regional boundaries to contribute to the growth of
compliance. Governments should embrace multi- the industry. It is important to adopt, recognise, and
stakeholder initiatives tailored to solar PV that support global certification schemes like the Solar
support achieving the ESG goals. Regulators and the Training Standards Initiative implemented by the
solar industry must also work together to put in Global Solar Council in partnership with the Global
place extended producer responsibility regulations Wind Organisation. By harmonising skills
for the proper disposal, reuse, and recycling of end- development and certification at a global level, the
of-life solar system components, such as modules, industry can ensure that workers possess
inverters, and batteries, which can help guarantee universally recognised and transferable skills,
an environmentally sound level of waste enabling seamless mobility and enhancing
management. Establishing designated processing workforce efficiency.
Author: Global Solar Council (GSC).

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3
Focus: China solar PV market
50 MW floating PV park in Jining, Shandong, China. © Sungrow
1. Introduction consumption, while coal's share had decreased to 55.3%

(see Fig. 38). Over the past decade, coal consumption has
China has been optimising its energy consumption
dropped by about 12%, while non-fossil energy sources
structure in recent years, with a growing share of non-
have increased by more than 7%. This shift has played a
fossil energy sources. By the end of 2023, non-fossil
crucial role in China's transition to low-carbon energy.
energy sources accounted for 17.7% of its total energy
FIGURE 38 STRUCTURE OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN CHINA, 2013-2023
100
90 17.7%
80
8.5%
70
17.3%
60
%
50
40
30 55.3%
20
10
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Coal Oil Natural gas Non-fossil energy sources
SOURCE: National Bureau of Statistics. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

3 Focus: China solar PV market / continued
In 2023, China's total installed electricity generation 1.57 TW, accounting for 53.9%, exceeding 50% for the
capacity reached 2.92 TW , up by 13.9% year over year. first time ever. In addition, China's combined installed
More specifically, the installed capacity of coal power capacity of wind and solar amounted to 1.05 TW,
was about 1.165 TW, accounting for less than 40% of accounting for 36%, marking a new breakthrough
total capacity; while non-fossil energy sources was at (see Fig. 39).
FIGURE 39 SHARES OF INSTALLED CAPACITY OF DIFFERENT ELECTRICITY SOURCES IN CHINA, 2013-2023
100
90 20.9%
80
70 15.1%
1.9%
60
14.4%
%
50
40
30
47.6%
20
10
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Thermal Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar
SOURCE: China Electricity Council. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

China's solar PV market grew much better than the world's total. By 2023, China's accumulative installed
expected in 2023; 216.3 GW8 of capacity was newly solar PV capacity amounted to 608.9 GW, surpassing
installed, a 148.1% increase year over year, hitting a hydropower and becoming the country's second-largest
record high and accounting for approximately 60% of electricity source after coal power capacity.
FIGURE 40 COMPARISON OF NEWLY INSTALLED SOLAR PV CAPACITY 2015-2023
250 160
140
200 120
100
80
150
60
GWAC
%
40
100
20
0
50 -20
-40
0 -60
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
New installations Growth rate
SOURCE: National Energy Administration (NEA). © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024
8 All PV capacity in this chapter is expressed in AC values.

In general, the installed capacity of renewable energy growth momentum in the renewable energy sector.
sources, namely wind and solar PV, has been The solar PV industry in particular, has experienced
increasing rapidly, and for the first time, the share of better-than-expected development, with new
installed capacity from non-fossil energy sources has installations hitting a record high. This demonstrates
exceeded 50% (see Fig. 41). This highlights China's the huge development potential of the industry.
FIGURE 41 NEWLY INSTALLED SOLAR PV AND WIND VS OTHER SOURCES IN 2023
Other sources: 17.7%
Solar + wind: 82.3%
17.9 MW, Datang Sanmenxia thermal power plant, China. © Jinko Solar

2. Policy objectives level. These targets are primarily initiated and will be
implemented through the FYPs. Attention to
Solar PV and renewable energy targets in the Five-Year
renewable energy began during the 10th FYP period of
Plan (FYP)
2001-2005. Renewable energy development plans
Renewable energy targets, including solar PV targets, were formulated during the 11th, 12th, and 13th FYP
were medium- and long-term development goals periods. Special plans for wind and solar power were
established by the central government at the national only introduced during the 12th and 13th FYP periods.
FIGURE 42 TIMELINE OF SOLAR PV PLANS MENTIONS IN THE FIVE-YEAR PLANS
11th FYP 2006-2010 12th FYP 2011-2015 13th FYP 2016-2020 14th FYP 2021-2025
• First RE development • Continued RE • Continued RE • Continued RE

plans development plans development plans development plans
• No specific • Solar PV targets of at • Solar PV target by 2020 • No specific

solar PV targets least 20 GW and of at least 105 GW and solar PV targets
improvements on 50% cost reduction
technology and in comparison
industry by 2015 to 2015
© Trina Solar

In the ongoing 14th FYP period (2020-2025), China The Chinese government has issued guiding
introduced the 14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable documents to direct energy development at different
Energy Development. This plan, which is built on stages. For example, the Strategy for Energy
carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets, outlines Production and Consumption Revolution (2016-2030)
key targets for renewable energy development and was released in 2016. It specified that the share of
utilisation by 2025 (see Table 3). These targets include non-fossil energy sources in primary energy
renewable energy total installed capacities, electricity consumption should reach 15% by 2020, 20% by
generation, electricity consumption, and renewable 2030, and 50% by 2050. In 2021, the State Council
energy non-electricity utilisation targets in order to issued The Opinions on Facilitating Carbon Peaking
achieve a 20% share of non-fossil energy and Carbon Neutrality by Implementing the New
consumption by 2025. 2024 is a key year for achieving Development Concept in a Complete, Accurate, and
the objectives and tasks of the 14th FYP. China will Comprehensive Manner, proposing that by 2030, the
make sustained efforts to promote high-quality total installed capacity of wind and solar should reach
development in the renewable energy sector by more than 1.2 TW. According to the latest data
establishing a sound policy mechanism for released by NEA, as of the end of March 2024, the
guaranteed new energy consumption, advancing the combined installed capacity of wind and solar PV in
construction of large-scale wind and solar power China has exceeded 1.1 TW, indicating a high
bases, and steadily facilitating new energy access to probability of meeting the target ahead of schedule.
the electricity market.
TABLE 3 MAJOR TARGETS FOR RE DEVELOPMENT AND UTILISATION IN THE 14 t h FYP
CATEGORY UNIT 2020 2025 ATTRIBUTES
1. Renewable energy utilisation for electricity generation
1.1. Share of total renewable energy in % 28.8 33 Expected

electricity consumption
1.2. Share of total non-hydro renewable % 11.4 18 Expected

energy in electricity consumption
1.3. Renewable energy generation TWh 2210 3,300 Expected
2. Renewable energy non-electricity 10,000 tons —— 6,000 Expected

utilisation
3. Total renewable energy utilisation 100M tce 6.8 10 Expected

“Dual carbon” targets goals include lowering CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by
18% from the 2020 level by 2025, peaking CO2
On September 22, 2020, President Xi Jinping announced
emissions around 2030, lowering CO2 emissions per unit
at the 75th session of the UN General Assembly that
of GDP by more than 65% from the 2005 level by 2030,
China aims to peak carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
reaching around 20% non-fossil energy sources in
before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060,
primary energy consumption, and increasing the forest
which are referred to as the “dual carbon” targets. The
stock volume by about 4.5 billion m3 from the 2005
specific concepts and implementation paths have been
level. The long-term goal is to achieve carbon neutrality,
further refined and deepened since then. The near-term
or "zero" CO2 emissions, by 2060. (see Table 4).
TABLE 4 DEVELOPMENT TARGETS FOR ENERGY INTENSITY, CARBON INTENSITY, SHARE OF NON-FOSSIL
ENERGY SOURCES, ETC.
SEGMENT 2020 2025 2030 2060
Decline in energy 15.3% (from the 13.5% (from the

consumption per unit GDP 2015 level) 2020 level)
Decline in carbon 18.8% (from the 18% (from the Over 65% (from
emissions per unit of GDP 2015 level) 2020 level) the 2005 level)
Share of non-fossil energy 15.9% 20% 25% Over 80%

consumption
Installed capacity of wind 530 GW Over 1.2 TW

and solar power
700 MW, China. © Jinko Solar

3. Development of China's solar PV industry paving the way for the grid-parity era. Concerns over
and major policy evolution subsidy delays or cancellations, particularly the
change in FIT policies, led to a sharp decline in newly
Development of China's solar sector
installed capacities in 2018 and 2019. However, new
The history of the development of China's solar PV installations grew rapidly after the full subsidy policy
industry can be divided into several key stages: was lifted in 2021 and exceeded the 2017 level due to
infancy, private sector as a driver of development, and a rush to install. Later, the industry entered a period of
large-scale expansion. rapid growth in the grid-parity era.
Prior to 2000, the solar PV industry was in its infancy.

At this stage, deficiencies were found in domestic Subsidies for solar PV electricity generation
market size, manufacturing capacity, systematic R&D
Starting in 2009, China has implemented several key
framework and investment, and vertical integration in
projects and initiatives to promote the domestic
the supply chain.
development of the Solar PV market. These include
Between 2001 and 2010, the private sector played a the solar PV Building Application & Demonstration
significant role in the rapid growth of the industry. Projects, the Golden Sun Demonstration Project, and
Overseas Chinese entrepreneurs kick-started the power plant concession bids. The 2009 Golden Sun
industry’s development, and China's “investment programme offered subsidies to on-grid and off-grid
promotion” policy attracted more overseas talent to solar PV generation projects, targeting 500 MW of
return home and launch their own businesses. The installed capacity nationwide by 2012.
limited size of the domestic market was mitigated by
In 2013, the State Council issued the Several Opinions
accessing foreign markets through improved quality
of the State Council on Promoting the Healthy
and reliability. The involvement of private companies
Development of the Photovoltaic Industry, which for
and joint ventures helped address the lack of technical
the first time clarified the implementation period of
knowledge, while foreign investment met the
FIT and subsidies to be 20 years and identified the
financing needs of start-ups. Additionally, the use of
Renewable Energy Development Fund (REDF) as the
vertically integrated supply chains led to a dramatic
funding source. Subsequently, the National
reduction in costs.
Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued
Between 2011 and 2017, the industry experienced a various documents outlining subsidy methods for
significant growth. By the end of 2013, China's different types of projects that gradually established
cumulative installed solar PV capacity had reached subsidy standards and policies.
125.7 GW, accounting for 7.5% of the total installed
In June 2021, NDRC issued the Notice on Matters
electricity capacity. However, there were some
Relating to the New Energy Feed-in Tariff Policy for
challenges, such as limited domestic market size,
2021. It explicitly stated that starting in 2021, new
higher electricity generation costs than traditional
centralised solar PV plants and industrial and
thermal power, and a lack of relevant technical
commercial distributed solar PV projects would no
standards. To address these issues, the government
longer receive subsidies from the central government
adopted several policies to stimulate the growth of
but would instead be subject to grid parity. In April
the domestic market. These included feed-in tariff
2022, the NDRC issued a document to eliminate the
(FIT) policies, demonstration projects, and improved
national tariff subsidy for residential solar PV and
regulation and management of the market by
implement full grid parity for solar PV electricity
introducing the Specification Conditions for the
generation, marking the official end of the solar PV
Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry and the “PV
subsidy policy.
Industry Standardised Technical System.” Additionally,
efforts were made to build up research and
development capacity and promote innovation. Guarantee Mechanism for Renewable Energy
Consumption
Since 2017, technological advances and efficiency
improvements in smart control systems, among The volatility and intermittency of renewable energy-
others, have reduced the cost of solar PV electricity, based electricity generation, along with the rapid growth

in the scale of development, has resulted in wind and matter. In 2019, the Notice on Establishing and
solar energy curtailment. To address this, the Chinese Perfecting the Guarantee Mechanism for Renewable
government has introduced a number of policies. Energy Electricity Consumption formally established
Important mechanisms, like feed-in tariffs, were this mechanism. It set the share for renewable energy
established in the Renewable Energy Law of 2005, consumption for provincial administrative regions and
which was amended in 2009 to further define prioritised stipulated relevant supporting systems such as
grid access and guaranteed purchase of renewable assumption of responsibility by the relevant main
energy, providing the base for China’s solar PV growth. entities, consumption accounting, and trading
Between 2013 and 2017, the relevant departments methods. China's annual average wind curtailment
introduced measures to explore “wind energy for and solar curtailment rates dropped significantly after
heating” and issued a notice on grid-connected wind the implementation of the guarantee mechanism.
energy consumption. As a result of these measures,
According to the “Long-Range Objectives Through the
China's annual average wind curtailment and solar
Year 2035”, China plans to expedite the development
curtailment rates showed a downward trend.
of renewable energy. It is expected that by 2035,
Subsequently, there were improvements in the renewable energy will become the primary source of
relevant policy mechanisms on the consumption side. energy consumption in China. Therefore, further
In 2018, China issued the Clean Energy Consumption developing and improving the guarantee mechanism
Action Plan (2018-2020), which clarified the for renewable energy consumption will become a
guarantee mechanism for renewable energy long-lasting mechanism for promoting the
consumption as a key long-lasting mechanism on the widespread utilisation of renewable energy.
FIGURE 43 SOLAR CURTAILMENT RATES IN CHINA 2018-2022
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
%
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Solar curtailment rates

County-wide distributed solar PV development Integrated energy planning

On June 20, 2021, NEA issued the Notice on the On January 29, 2022, NEA released the 14th Five-Year
Submission of Pilot Programmes for the Development Plan for Modern Energy System, listing “secure, green,
of Distributed Rooftop Photovoltaics in Entire Counties and low-carbon” as the first of the four basic principles.
(Cities and Districts). The Pilot Programme aimed to According to the five main objectives of the Plan, CO2
realise the economies of scale for rooftop solar PV emissions per unit of GDP will fall by 18% in five years.
through the intensification of integrated resources while By 2025, the plans aim to increase the share of non-
simultaneously encouraging its installations in a county fossil energy consumption to around 20%, non-fossil
(city or district). Thus, it reduced the customer power generation to 39%, and electricity in end-use
acquisition costs, the soft cost of the development of energy to around 30%. In addition, the Plan put forward
residential installations, and the development costs of the goal of “significantly enhancing the capacity for
the solar PV power plants. In September 2021, NEA innovation and development.” To achieve these aims,
published a list of 676 pilot counties, cities, and districts efforts will be made to integrate new energy
in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities. technologies, reach milestones in constructing new
The construction scale of the pilot counties, cities, and grids, and significantly improve the innovation capacity
districts ranged from 150 MW to 300 MW, and the for safe and efficient energy storage, including
cumulative capacity filed by pilot counties reached hydrogen energy technology. In addition, actions will be
approximately 165 GW. The launch of the Pilot taken to accelerate the scale-up and application of
Programme set off a distributed solar PV development technologies for reducing pollution and cutting carbon
boom, which promoted its development and offered emissions, and ensure that investment in energy
opportunities for urban and rural residents to utilise their research and development during the 14th FYP period
rooftops to increase their incomes. In 2021, the installed will increase by 7% annually, and that breakthroughs will
capacity of distributed projects accounted for about be made in about 50 key technology areas.
53% of the national newly installed solar PV capacity,
By 2035, significant progress is expected in the
surpassing that of centralised power plants for the first
development of the energy sector and in establishing
time. In 2022, its share increased to 58%. However, the
a modern energy system. Energy security and
progress of the Pilot Programme fell below expectations.
guarantee capacity should be substantially improved
By the end of 2022, the cumulative grid-connected
with major progress in upgrading the grid. Green
capacity in the pilot areas nationwide was 29.76 GW.
production and consumption patterns should be
Suqian, Jiangsu, China. © Trina Solar

widely formed, with a substantial increase in the share accounting for 55.5%. In comparison to the period from
of non-fossil energy consumption, making renewable 2018 to 2022, both centralised and distributed new
energy electricity generation the main energy source installations showed remarkable growth, and reached
in the mix. Additionally, total carbon emissions will the 100 GW scale. Additionally, the new installations of
steadily decrease after reaching the peak. centralised projects surpassed that of distributed
projects, reversing the trend in the past two years. This
is mainly due to the accelerated construction of large-
4. Market developments in 2023-2024 scale wind and solar complementary bases in the
northwest region. The first batch of projects was
Current status of China’s solar PV market
required to be connected to the grid before 2023, while
In 2023, China's total installed solar PV capacity the second batch of projects was required to have an
reached 608.9 GW, with distributed projects operating rate of more than half.
accounting for 254.4 GW and centralised projects for
In 2023, there were 20 provinces with cumulative
354.5 GW. In 2023 alone, China added 216.3 GW of solar
installed capacity of more than 10 GW and 16
PV capacity, showing an increase of 148.1% year over
provinces with a capacity of more than 20 GW.
year. Specifically, distributed projects had a capacity of
Shandong Province had the highest installed capacity
96.3 GW, accounting for 44.5% of the installations, while
(56.9 GW), followed by Hebei (54.2 GW), Jiangsu (39.3
centralised projects had a capacity of 120 GW,
FIGURE 44 DISTRIBUTION OF NEW INSTALLATIONS BY TYPE 2018-2023
140
120
100
80
GWAC
60
40
20
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Centralised PV
Distributed PV

GW), Henan (37.3 GW), Zhejiang (33.6 GW), and Anhui Inner Mongolia. Furthermore, eight provinces had total
(32.2 GW). Additionally, 15 provinces had accumulated installations of distributed solar PV of more than 10
installations of centralised plants of more than 10 GW, GW, the top five being Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu,
the top five being Hebei, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, and Zhejiang, and Hebei.
FIGURE 45 ANNUAL AND CUMULATIVE INSTALLATIONS BY PROVINCE IN 2023
1.8
New installations by province in 2023
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
GW
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Beijing
Tianjin
Liaoning
Guizhou
Hebei
Shanxi
Shandong
Inner Mongolia
Jilin
Heilongjiang
Zhejiang
Fujian
Ningxia
Xinjiang
Shanghai
Jiangsu
Anhui
Jiangxi
Hubei
Chongqing
Xizang
Henan
Hunan
Sichuan
Shaanxi
Gansu
Qinghai
Guangdong
Guangxi
Hainan
Yunnan
60
Cummulative installations by province in 2023
50
40
GW
30
20
10
0
Beijing
Tianjin
Liaoning
Hebei
Shanxi
Shandong
Inner Mongolia
Jilin
Heilongjiang
Zhejiang
Fujian
Hubei
Chongqing
Ningxia
Gansu
Xinjiang
Guizhou
Xizang
Shanghai
Jiangsu
Anhui
Jiangxi
Henan
Hunan
Sichuan
Shaanxi
Qinghai
Guangdong
Guangxi
Hainan
Yunnan
Centralised PV Distributed PV

In 2023, the new installations of centralised solar PV The top 10 provinces and autonomous regions with
projects exceeded 120 GW, accounting for over 55% the highest centralised installations were Yunnan and
of total installations. The first phase of base projects Xinjiang, ranking first and second, with new
was required to be connected to the grid by the end installations close to 15 GW. They were closely
of 2023. More than half of the second phase of base followed closely by Gansu and Hebei, both exceeding
projects have started, and the third phase of base 10 GW. The remaining six provinces were Hubei,
projects has completed nearly 25% of the Qinghai, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia,
preliminary work. with new installations in the range of 5-10 GW.
FIGURE 46 TOP 10 PROVINCES AND AUTONOMOUS REGIONS IN TERMS OF CENTRALISED SOLAR PV

INSTALLATIONS IN 2023
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
GWAC
800
600
400
200
0
Yunnan Xinjiang Gansu Hebei Hubei Qinghai Shaanxi Shanxi Inner Ningxia
Mongolia

Newly installed distributed solar PV nearly reached Existing Supporting Policies

100 GW in 2023, representing around 45% of annual
In China, the sources of green electricity (refering to
deployed capacity. Of these, 43.5 GW were for
electricity produced with zero or near-zero CO2
residential use, accounting for 45.2% of the total for
emissions) have recently been dominated by wind and
distributed installations, while commercial and
solar PV. Green electricity products have both energy and
industrial projects amounted to 52.8 GW, accounting
environmental value, and the price of transactions in the
for 54.8% of the total. China's distributed PV market
green electricity market reflects a green premium,
last year showed faster growth in C&I projects, and a
whereas electricity users who buy green electricity
shift in focus to the residential distributed market. This
products will be provided with certificates. Green
is clearer in Zhejiang and Guangdong, where local
Electricity Certificates (GECs), also known as Renewable
economic development in these two provinces mainly
Energy Certificates (RECs), are a policy tool based on the
relies on export-oriented enterprises that lack land
Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS). In order to increase
space for large-scale construction.
flexibility of the obligated parties of RPS to fulfil the quota
targets, RPS will often be adopted to provide more
flexible market-based mechanisms. The purchase of
RECs is the means and proof of meeting the RPS.
FIGURE 47 TOP 10 PROVINCES IN TERMS OF DISTRIBUTED SOLAR PV INSTALLATIONS IN 2023
16
14
12
10
GWac
0
Henan Jiangsu Shangdong Anhui Zhejiang Guangdong Hebei Jiangxi Hunan Fujian
New PV installations for industrial and commercial use

New PV installations for residential use
SOURCE: China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA). © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

China has been exploring market-based mechanisms premiums of grid parity projects will be given to the
for green electricity on the basis of the traditional electricity generation enterprises. For subsidised
electricity market, with green electricity and GEC projects, the green premium will be given to the
trading as the main varieties, forming a system of government to be used for subsidies, so that the
market-based mechanisms that comprehensively subsidy the project receives stays the same in the end.
reflect the value of electric energy and the This means that green electricity premium income and
environmental value of green electricity. With the national renewable energy subsidies cannot be
elimination of solar PV tariff support schemes and the achieved at the same time.
implementation of the grid parity policy, there has
In July 2023, NDRC, MOF, and NEA jointly issued the
become an urgent need to develop sound green
Notice on Promoting Renewable Energy Electricity
electricity and GECs trading markets. In February 2023,
Consumption through Full Coverage of Renewable
NDRC, the Ministry of Finance (MOF), and NEA issued
Energy Green Electricity Certificates,
the Notice on Matters Relating to the Participation in
comprehensively restructuring the GEC system and
Green Electricity Trading of Green Electricity Projects
achieving full coverage of GECs. At present, China's
Enjoying Subsidies from the Central Government to
green electricity and GEC trading markets have
steadily encourage the projects under the national FIT
gradually established corresponding mechanisms
subsidies to participate in green electricity trading.
(see Table 5).
Under these new rules, the revenue generated by green
TABLE 5 CHARACTERISTICS OF GECS AND GREEN ELECTRICITY TRADING MARKETS
TRADING MECHANISMS GECS GREEN ELECTRICITY
Subject matter of the Environmental rights and Physical quantities + environmental

transaction benefits rights and interests
Transaction characteristics Separation of certificates Unification of certificate and electricity

and electricity
Transaction price Environmental value Electrical energy value + environmental

value
Transaction scope Not limited by geography Inter-provincial + Intra-provincial
Transaction priority / Prioritised organisation, implementation,

settlement and guarantee

The guaranteed purchase mechanism of renewable national monitoring and evaluation system has been
electricity is an important tool for fostering the established for the development of wind and solar PV
renewable energy market and the sector. It is also an generation to monitor and release market and industrial
important legal system for ensuring the smooth developments on an annual basis and provide
development of the renewable energy electricity sector information and early warning for the industry. The state
during its start-up and growth phases. The mechanism has also coordinated and promoted the construction of
can be traced back to the Measures for the Supervision relevant electricity grid infrastructure, stimulated
of Full-Amount Purchase of Renewable Energy thermal electricity flexibility retrofits, and intensified
Electricity by Grid Enterprises, implemented on a trial the assessment of electricity grid operations.
basis since September 1, 2007. It stipulates that grid
The implementation of the National Full-Amount
operators should purchase grid-connected electricity
Guaranteed Purchase Mechanism for renewable
in full amount from renewable energy projects covered
energy has achieved positive results. During the 13th
by their electricity grids. The policy was adjusted several
FYP period, China's wind electricity utilisation rate
times in response to changes in the policy and market
increased from 82.7% to 96.5%, while the solar PV
environment. Since the 13th FYP period, additional policy
electricity utilisation rate increased from 89.5% to
documents were released in order to implement the
98%. This led to a significant improvement in the level
full-amount guaranteed purchase system, including the
of renewable energy consumption. Additionally, during
document that NDRC and NEA have issued on the
the current 14th FYP period, there are continuous
Measures for the Administration of the Full-Amount
improvements in the rate of renewable energy
Guaranteed Purchase of Renewable energy Electricity
utilisation and energy curtailment mitigation.
Generation, the Action Plan for Clean Energy
Consumption, and the Notice on the Establishment of The Measures for the Supervision of Full-Amount
a Sound Guarantee Mechanism for the Consumption Guaranteed Purchase of Renewable Energy Electricity
of Renewable Energy Electricity. Under the guidance of came into force on April 1, 2024. The major change in
these documents, the State has approved the this new policy is that grid operators will no longer be
minimum guaranteed annual utilisation hours for wind obligated to purchase all renewable energy electricity,
and solar PV electricity generation in key regions. In and the model has shifted to a guaranteed purchase.
addition, they have set the share of renewable energy This means that part of the renewable energy
consumption in provincial administrative regions. A generation will participate in market-based trading.
© Jinko Solar

5. Opportunities and Challenges Ahead In the short term, the three northern regions will
become the main concentration of China's
Opportunities
electrolyser-based hydrogen production capacity due
The development of the solar PV sector has been to manufacturing costs and consumption potential.
already constrained by problems on the consumption Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia have abundant
side. As the large-scale solar industry continues to solar and wind resources, with a high rate of utilisation
grow, it is crucial to create application scenarios that hours. This plays a key role in rapidly reducing
can address the demand side and gradually replace combined hydrogen costs. Additionally, these regions
traditional energy sources. By coupling solar PV with are home to China's oil and gas, coal, and chemical
battery storage and hydrogen production, solar can industry bases, with a number of use cases for
reduce curtailment, and ease the bottleneck to hydrogen application for oil and gas processing,
scaled-up grid access. Adding flexibility tools, methanol production, and more. This means it can be
including green hydrogen, offers an effective way to used for technical verification for large-scale industrial
better match solar growth with demand. applications of green hydrogen and to create a
demand for its consumption.
In 2023, many wind and solar PV hydrogen production
projects were launched, making it the first year of As the renewable energy subsidy policy became
rapid development of green hydrogen. The Xinjiang history, the guaranteed purchase system for all power
Kuqa Green Hydrogen Demonstration Project, fully generated has also begun to be phased out. The
constructed and operational by August, holds great Chinese government will step up efforts in building
significance as China's first 10 kt solar PV direct green renewable electricity market-based mechanisms in
hydrogen production project. The project provided the the future, bringing new opportunities for the solar PV
first feasible sample of large-scale production, industry. Market based solutions will increase the risk
storage, transportation, and utilisation of green for renewable energy project owners compared to the
hydrogen. At full capacity, it can produce 20 kt of green previously guaranteed electricity offtake with
hydrogen annually, which can replace natural gas guaranteed quantity and price. For instance, the risk
hydrogen production in oil refinery processing, and of gains from competing in the market through
lower carbon emissions. quotation has increased significantly.
21 MW, Ningbo Yuyao, China. © Sungrow

Renewables’ characteristics, such as volatility, opportunities for renewable energy consumption and
intermittency, and low marginal cost, can lead to lower increasing renewable energy capacities.
electricity prices in electricity market competition. As
The renewable energy sector worldwide employed 13.7
a result, the value of electricity generated by solar PV
million people in 2022, almost doubling the 7.3 million
remains consistently lower than that of thermal-
employed in 2012. China is a global leader in renewable
based generation and other sources of non-
energy employment, accounting for 41% of the total
intermittent electricity. While the price risk solar PV
jobs created globally, at the same time China accounted
faces is even more pronounced, a more market-driven
for about 56% of solar PV employment worldwide.9
approach could significantly boost the installation of
China's solar PV industry offers a large number of jobs,
new renewable energy capacities.
especially in the manufacturing and construction
In March 2024, NDRC issued the Measures for the sectors. While labour demand in some industries has
Supervision of Full-Amount Guaranteed Purchase of been decreasing due to increasing automation, the
Renewable Energy Electricity. It further incentivised deployment side of solar is much more job-intenisve.
renewable energy projects to participate in electricity
Challenges
market transactions. While the environmental value of
green electricity is captured through GECs, supporting Problems of grid access and electricity consumption
measures should be implemented to maximise the for centralised projects persist; however, distributed
benefit of solar PV generation. Such measures include solar PV has begun to face similar problems in recent
expansion of the full coverage and application of GECs, years. The “self-generation and self-consumption”
strengthening the connection between GECs and the mode affects the net load, exacerbating electricity
domestic carbon market as well as international generation-consumption balance problems and
recognition, and further enhancing the visibility of causing sharp changes in electricity prices in
GECs. The decreasing cost of solar PV allows for provinces where the spot market operates.
market-based approaches to foster affordable Distributed solar PV in Shandong and Henan, among
renewable energy consumption or even manage the others, has been developing rapidly, and because of
curtailment of generation. This can help to better that the electricity load profile is shifting from a “duck
allocate grid-regulated resources, providing more curve” into a “canyon curve”.
1 GW solar PV park producing green hydrogen in Delingha, Qinghai, China. © LONGi
9 IRENA and ILO (2023), Renewable energy and jobs: Annual review 2023

Since last year, distributed projects, which originally of industries (solar panels, electric vehicles, and
had convenient grid access conditions, are now lithium batteries) from the solar PV industry side has
encountering opposition from different energy actors. grown close to 70% globally, while domestic growth in
There is an increasing number of cities and counties China has approximately reached 150%. From the
that have limited distributed capacity on the perspective of industry and economic development,
distribution grid and have restricted its rapid only maintaining an appropriate “surplus” status can
deployment. Additionally, Shandong, Henan, and Hebei, trigger competition in the industry, address the price
along with other major solar PV provinces, have monopoly, foster technological progress, and
adjusted the peak-valley tariff range for users, and are ultimately emancipate productive forces.
using price mechanisms to optimise the development
of distributed installations.
6. Conclusions
The Energy Work Guidance released by NEA in March
China's solar PV market is expected to remain strong
2024 mentions an upcoming revision and publication
in the coming years with an anticipated significant
of the Measures for the Administration of Distributed
growth in the future. According to CPIA, China's new
PV Electricity Generation Projects. In addition, it
solar PV installations will reach between 252 GW and
described further advancements of pilot programmes
317 GW in 2030, based on conservative estimates and
for enhancing grid capacity for distributed projects.
optimistic estimates, respectively (see CPIA’s market
This indicates that grid capacity has become a
update on China at p. 84). However, in 2024, due to a
bottleneck for the development of distributed
combination of factors, a small decline in new
projects, and efforts should be made to unlock the full
installations, the same as that in 2023 can be
potential of grid access and foster the healthy growth
expected for both conservative and optimistic
of distributed solar PV on the grid. In that direction,
forecasts. Despite these challenges, China's PV
energy storage has increasingly become a key
industry is well-positioned for continued growth.
technology for China to support the growth of
renewable energy capacities. By serving as a regulator China's solar PV industry has transitioned from a
for the energy system, energy storage can enhance period of rapid growth to a market-driven phase. As a
the grid's capability to integrate, distribute, and result, several significant challenges are presented and
manage clean energy. Yet, the development of energy need to be urgently addressed. Both centralised and
storage also faces multiple challenges, including at the distributed projects are under pressure because of the
supply chain and regulatory framework level. uncertainty of consumption patterns. Additionally, the
traditional FIT policy has been undergoing significant
Based on market data, the solar PV industry has been
changes, prompting the need for a new model as solar
experiencing challenges in supply and demand since
PV increasingly participates in electricity market
2022. Installed capacity has gained a relatively large
transactions. For example, a number of provinces have
boost in recent years, with increased supply,
begun to explore time-of-use tariff mechanisms,
superimposed on panic price cuts by some
which will become more common in the foreseeable
companies. However, due to declining profitability, it
future. The introduction of this type of market-driven
is worth pondering how much of the company's
tariff policy will inevitably have an impact on the
originally planned capacity can still be achieved from
economic efficiency and investment decisions of
a practical point of view. Furthermore, price
solar PV projects. The industry also faces challenges
fluctuations are a natural feature of any market.
related to land, water, and sea use restrictions, which
According to economic principles, the current low
require supporting measures on policy and project
prices are unlikely to persist in the long term. In fact,
levels. Furthermore, there are challenges related to
signs of stabilisation in the prices of some products
grids, storage, land costs, and the need for additional
are already being seen. In recent years, the “New Trio”
investment in development.

Increased solar PV production capacity has intensified company competitiveness, and ultimately lead to
price competition in China's industry, posing a survival industry-wide upgrades. Despite these challenges,
test in the market for many businesses. However, China's solar PV industry is well-positioned for
internal competition is necessary for the industry to continued growth and ultimately realise great
achieve high-quality development. It will drive development as a whole.
efficiency improvements, enhance individual
Author: Chinese Renewable Energy Industries
Association (CREIA) & Global Solar Council (GSC).
FIGURE 48 CHINA ANNUAL SOLAR PV INSTALLED CAPACITY FORECAST 2023-2030, BY CPIA
350
300
250
200
GWac
150
100
50
0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Conservatice estimates Optimistic forecasts
SOURCE: CPIA. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

4
GW-scale markets
5.9 MW, Beijing Fengtai Station, China. © JA Solar
In 2023, 31 countries across the world installed more As in previous Global Market Outlooks, national solar
than 1 GW of new solar capacity. That’s three more associations from markets that have added more than
than in 2022, when 28 countries reached this level 1 GW in the previous year have been invited to present
(see Fig. 49). The new entrants are the UAE, Sweden, their local expert views on their home markets (which
Saudi Arabia, Romania and Bulgaria, while Denmark sometimes differ from our estimates that are based
and Israel, which were GW markets in 2022, did not on several sources). Many of these associations, like
reach that scale in 2023. SolarPower Europe, are members of the Global Solar
Council (GSC), which is a long-time supporter of the
The increasing number of GW-scale markets
Global Market Outlook.
illustrates the continued solar momentum, as more
countries find in solar PV a low-cost and versatile The number of GW markets in the European Union
solution to their energy needs and decarbonisation keeps increasing, growing from 12 GW markets in
strategies. According to our Medium Scenario 2022 to 14 GW markets in 2023. This year, the EU-27
forecast, the upward trajectory will continue in is assessed as a whole, ranking #2 in terms of
2024, as we anticipate six more countries will join combined annual installed capacity; only European
the group to a total of 37 GW-scale markets. In 2025, markets outside the EU are featured individually. For a
we expect to reach the milestone of 50 GW-scale detailed analysis of each EU GW market from the point
markets worldwide. of view of our national association members, please
read our latest EU Market Outlook for Solar Power,
published in December 2023.

4 GW-scale markets / continued
FIGURE 49 GW-SCALE SOLAR PV MARKETS 2022-2024
Turkey: 1%
Chile: 1% 2022 Denmark: 1%
Taiwan: 1% Greece: 1%
France: 1% South Africa: 1%
Italy: 1% United Kingdom: 1%
South Korea: 1% Belgium: 1%
Australia: 2% Portugal: 1%
Netherlands: 2% Mexico: 1%
Poland: 2% Pakistan: 0%
Japan: 3% Hungary: 0%
Germany: 3% Israel: 0%
Austria: 0%
Spain: 4% Switzerland: 0%
Rest of the World: 7%
Brazil: 5%
28 GW Markets
India: 8%
United States: 10% China: 42%

Turkey: 1% Taiwan: 1%
South Korea: 1% Austria: 1%
United Arab Emirates: 1% 2023 Sweden: 0%
France: 1% Saudi Arabia: 0%
South Africa: 1% Belgium: 0%
Poland: 1% United Kingdom: 0%
Netherlands: 1% Chile: 0%
Australia: 1% Mexico: 0%
Italy: 1% Greece: 0%
Japan: 1% Hungary: 0%
Spain: 2% Switzerland: 0%
India: 3% Portugal: 0%
Romania: 0%
Germany: 4% Pakistan: 0%
Bulgaria: 0%
Brazil: 4% Rest of the World: 4%
United States: 8%
31 GW Markets
United Kingdom: 1%
Austria: 1%
South Korea: 1% Greece: 1%
Taiwan: 1% Romania: 1% China: 60%
South Africa: 1% Switzerland: 1%
France: 1% Belgium: 0%
Poland: 1% 2024 Chile: 0%
Sweden: 0%
Netherlands: 1% Portugal: 0%
Turkey: 1% Saudi Arabia: 0%
Italy: 1% Philippines: 0%
Australia: 1% Pakistan: 0%
Japan: 1% Bulgaria: 0%
Spain: 2% Mexico: 0%
Brazil: 3% Czech Republic: 0%
Germany: 4% Peru: 0%
Uzbekistan: 0%
India: 4% Malaysia: 0%
Hungary: 0%
Dominican Republic: 0%
Ireland: 0%
United States: 8% Rest of the World: 4%
37 GW Markets
China: 60%

1. CHINA China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA)
2. EU-27 SolarPower Europe
3. UNITED STATES The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA)
4. BRAZIL Brazilian Photovoltaic Solar Energy Association (ABSOLAR)
5. INDIA National Solar Energy Federation of India (NSEFI)
6. JAPAN Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association (JPEA)
7. AUSTRALIA Smart Energy Council (SEC)
8. SOUTH AFRICA South African PV Industry Association (SAPVIA)
9. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES Middle East Solar Industry Association (MESIA)
10. SOUTH KOREA Korea National University of Transportation
11. TÜRKIYE Turkish Solar Energy Association (GÜNDER)
12. TAIWAN Taiwan Photovoltaic Industry Association (TPVIA)
13. SAUDI ARABIA Middle East Solar Industry Association (MESIA)
14. UNITED KINGDOM Solar Energy UK (SEUK)
15. CHILE Chilean Solar Association (ACESOL)
16. MEXICO Mexican Association of Solar Energy (ASOLMEX)
17. SWITZERLAND Swissolar
18. PAKISTAN Pakistan Solar Association (PSA)

fossil energy sources to 55%. Specifically, it increased

1. China the share of power generated by wind and solar to more
than 17% of the country's national generation capacity.
Overview of PV developments
In 2023, China's new installed PV capacity exceeded The year 2024 marks the 75th anniversary of the
216 GWAC, an increase of 148% year-on-year. New founding of the People's Republic of China. It will also
installations reached a new record high, and the speed be a crucial year to get on track to reach the 2025
of new PV installation in China is continuing to targets of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan. The country will
accelerate. By the end of 2023, the cumulative PV continue to consolidate the advantages of the
capacity reached 609 GWAC. development of the PV industry, expand the supply of
clean, low-carbon energy, and actively promote the
The fast development of China's PV installed capacity decarbonisation and low-carbon transformation of
in 2023 was mainly due to the combined effect of China, both at the local and national levels.
connecting the first set of large utility-scale projects
to the grid, and the rapid decline in the price of PV
system cost components. By the end of the year, Drivers for solar growth
China's polysilicon production stood at about 1.43 In the future, it is anticipated that China's PV industry
million tonnes, up 67% from 2022; wafer production will evolve towards greater efficiency, greener practices,
reached 622 GW, an increase of 68%; cell production and enhanced smart capabilities. The PV industry is
totalled 545 GW, up 65%; while module production expected to align with the construction of new electric
reached 499 GW, up 69% over the previous year. power systems, enhancing efficiency and the use of
green, intelligent processes in value chains for the
National targets for solar PV manufacturing sector. In terms of applications, China
will promote the development of key technologies for
In April 2024, the National Energy Administration issued integrated 'solar-storage-grid' solutions.
the "Guidance on Energy Work in 2024", providing
guidance on the deployment of energy work In order to actively advance carbon-peaking and
throughout the year, as well as development targets. carbon-neutrality, China is accelerating the deployment
The document highlights the need to keep optimising of a new energy system. The rapid development of PV
energy infrastructure, and increased targets for the and other forms of renewable energy is now an
proportion of installed power generation from non- inevitable trend, and the expansion of green electricity
lays a solid foundation in this regard.
© LONGi

FIGURE GW 1.1 CHINA ANNUAL SOLAR PV MARKET 2019-2023, BY CPIA
250
200
96
150
GWAC
100
51 120
50
14 31
10
32 25 36
20
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Distributed
Utility-scale
Another driver for solar growth in China comes from PV installations in 2023. The residential sector installed
a growing electricity demand. Electricity consumption 43.5 GWAC, accounting for 45% of the newly distributed
is expected to achieve an average annual growth of PV additions, while the commercial and industrial (C&I)
6% over the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which will segment added 52.8 GWAC, accounting for 55% of the
require additional renewable energy capacity. newly distributed PV additions.
Solar power can be integrated seamlessly with various
sectors, including construction, transportation, and Challenges for the market
agriculture. These dual land-use projects allow for the
Although the participation of solar PV in the electricity
exploration of new PV applications and business models,
spot market trading has become a trend in most
further broadening the scope for solar development.
provinces, introducing new energy sources on the
spot market can cause fluctuations in electricity price.
Utility-scale vs. distributed and rooftop developments Unlike medium and long-term trading, spot power
market trading altered the previous solar PV business
In 2023, utility-scale new installed capacity reached
model. Additionally, different provinces have different
120 GWAC, accounting for 56% of all installations.
rules for spot power trading, making it difficult to
Distributed PV annual installed capacity reached 96
predict PV revenues, which is becoming a new
GWAC, providing the remaining 44% share. Having
challenge. In the future, under the spot market system,
overtaken new distributed installations, new utility-
electricity prices will change with time and location.
scale installations have become the main driver for new

Therefore, PV enterprises should break away from the In 2023, China's PV industry has seen substantial
fixed-price and explore ways to participate in spot growth both in terms of manufacturing and
market-based trading of PV power generation. installations. For 2024, the Chinese Photovoltaic
Industry Association (CPIA) expects China’s annual PV
market to reach 190-220 GWAC, keeping the record-
Outlook for the years 2024-2030
breaking order of magnitude reached in 2023, while
In December 2023, at COP28, 118 countries signed the global installed capacity may reach 390-430 GWAC. By
Global Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency 2030, we can expect China's average annual PV
Commitment to triple global installed renewable installed capacity to stay above the 250 GW level (see
energy generating capacity by 2030, and double the Fig. GW 1.2).
average annual rate of improvement in global energy
Author: China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA).
efficiency. This will contribute to advance the
deployment of renewable energy, especially solar,
which is the fastest growing renewable source.
FIGURE GW 1.2 CHINA PV MARKET SCENARIOS 2024-2030, BY CPIA
350
317
307
300
271
252
GWAC
250 242
237
220
213
206
200 190
100
2024 2025 2026 2028 2030
Low scenario High scenario

support, improved permitting and administrative
2. EU-27 framework, a higher than expected order pipeline
from 2022 that was finally met with wide product and
Overview of PV developments in 2023
installer availability, created the conditions for the
2023 was a remarkable year for solar PV deployment record growth in 2023. The year 2023 showed the
in the EU, which added 61 GW and reached 264 GW of best annual growth rate since 2018, and was the year
cumulative capacity, equal to 50% year-on-year with the highest absolute market growth ever, with
growth, up from the 40.4 GW installed in 2022 (see over 20 GW more than the market size in 2022.
Fig. GW 2.1.). This is significantly higher than the Germany led this surge, installing 15 GW or a quarter
55.9 GW SolarPower Europe estimated in its Dec. of the total EU installations, while Spain and Italy
2023 published EU Market Outlook, a number that was completed the podium, with over 14 GW combined.
gradually adjusted upwards over the last few months Market diversification is also increasing, as 14 out of
as official numbers from Member States became 27 Member States crossed the GW scale in annual
available. A combination of high energy prices, political capacity additions.
FIGURE GW 2.1 EU-27 ANNUAL SOLAR PV INSTALLED CAPACITY 2000-2023
70
60.9
60
50 50%
40.4
40
GW
44%
30 28.1
41%
20
10
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Germany Spain Italy Netherlands Poland France
Austria Greece Romania Belgium Rest of Europe

Germany emerged as the top performer in 2023, with Drivers & Challenges
a 104% annual growth and exceeding its 9 GW national
Government policies and regulations play a critical role
target for 2023 by a large margin. The market is
in shaping growth for renewable energy in the EU,
showing maturity, with regulatory stability and high
particularly as the sense of urgency following the
public acceptance of PV, as well as a balanced
energy price crisis diminishes. Energy security
contribution to capacity additions from all PV
concerns and high energy prices catalysed rapid
segments. Contrary to earlier expectations, Spain
growth in EU solar PV installations during 2022-2023.
slightly rose (5%) in 2023, bringing the market to 8.9
Additionally, as countries sought to mitigate volatile
GW, while the Italian market more than doubled (111%)
fossil fuels, EU policymakers adopted supportive
and reached 5.2 GW. Other EU GW markets were the
measures for solar deployment, among which the
Netherlands (4.9 GW), Poland (4.6 GW), France (3.2
setting of the 750 GW (600 GWac) REPowerEU target
GW), Austria (2.7 GW), Sweden (2 GW), Belgium (1.9
by 2030, improved permitting conditions, and a EU
GW), Greece (1.6 GW), Hungary (1.6 GW), Portugal (1.5
rooftop solar strategy. Nevertheless, high energy prices
GW), Romania (1.5 GW), and Bulgaria (1.2 GW). Czech
have been the key driver of growth in 2022 and 2023,
Republic missed the GW mark by around 20 MW.
making many projects economically viable, despite
Among the 27 Member States, 26 installed more solar
several bottlenecks and a high interest rate
capacity than the year before.
environment. Today, with energy prices receding
towards pre-crisis levels, the role of policymakers has
become even more critical to maintain high installation
rates and prevent future dependency on fossil fuels.
A promising development is the recent increase in certainty and public perception surrounding
solar ambition under the National Energy and Climate renewable energy, and pose a threat to continued solar
Plans (NECP) targets. However, despite this progress, market growth. Fortunately, EU and national policies
the targets are still 30% below SolarPower Europe’s adopted during the period of heightened urgency
Medium Scenario trajectory projected for 2030, and could help mitigate the impact of less solar-oriented
17% below the REPowerEU target. government changes, and are expected to continue
influencing solar deployment in the medium term.
Compounding this uncertainty are the recent and
upcoming Member State and EU elections, raising In this regard, a significant driver to solar growth in the
concerns about policy stability and adherence to EU is the strong increase in auctioned solar capacity,
deployment targets. For example, the newly elected particularly in the utility-scale segment. The
government coalition in the Netherlands has momentum created by larger auctioned capacities
announced an abrupt halt of policy support for will lead to an increase in utility-scale contributions,
residential solar (compared to a gradual phaseout) and growing from 35% in 2023 to 45% and beyond from
reduced future support for electrification. Such 2026 onwards (see Fig. GW 2.2.). Still, rooftop solar is
sudden policy changes, particularly from expected to remain the largest market segment until
governmental shifts, significantly harm investor the end of our forecast period in 2028.
FIGURE GW 2.2 EU-27 ANNUAL ROOFTOP VS. UTILITY-SCALE SEGMENTATION 2023-2028
90
80
70 35%
39% 41%
60 65%
61% 45% 45% 46%
59%
55% 55% 54%
%
50
40
30
20
10
0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Rooftop Utility-scale

PV technology advancements, economies of scale at enhancing the efficiency of their teams and attracting
production level, and large overcapacities in global PV additional workforce, also from less flourishing sectors,
manufacturing have contributed to a drop in product like construction. As such, the skill shortage in the EU
prices, which decreased overall significantly, and for solar industry has become less of a barrier to growth.
solar modules by 50% over the course of 2023. These
Finally, the change in the economic and financial
price cuts have partially masked the worsening in the
landscape has been detrimental to the solar business
business case for large-scale solar. Within a high
case. The lifting of several bottlenecks and the
interest rate environment and rising PV penetration
availability of low-cost components have somewhat
shares, large-scale solar projects increasingly
masked the damaging effects of a more challenging
experience high curtailment and price cannibalisation.
financial environment for solar. Persisting high interest
This is particularly visible in Southern European
rates are no longer accompanied by high energy prices
markets, which exemplify the challenges that await the
and low grid congestion. Additionally, the continuation
rest of Europe if grid and flexibility constraints are
of administrative hurdles, regular court cases, and
insufficiently addressed. Without adequate grid
unstable policy frameworks has undermined investor
development, storage deployment and demand
certainty by making solar a comparatively riskier asset
response, the growth of the solar market is capped.
to invest in. Consequently, the cost of capital has
After a year of record growth, these issues only magnify,
increased, adding to the financial burden on solar
revealing further vulnerabilities in the grid during peak
projects. In response, de-risking contracts such as PPAs
periods. As such, the future of solar is tightly bound to
have risen in popularity. This is also notably linked to the
policymakers’ focus on grid reinforcement and
higher cost-bearing capacity of large corporations with
flexibility-boosting policies. This includes clear policy
sustainability targets, which will continue to be a key
actions supporting battery storage and the
driver. On small-scale deployment, the high inflationary
electrification of heating, cooling and transportation.
environment is hurting purchasing power, postponing
Until recently, product component availability and skills many households’ decisions to invest in solar PV. This
were identified as crucial bottlenecks to solar growth in is especially true for lower-income households who are
the EU. Today, access to components does not pose a unable to access affordable green loans or other policy
major hurdle anymore. However, exceptions exist, such measures to help bridge the initial investment barrier.
as a shortage of power transformers that continues to For continued market growth, it is essential that both
influence large-scale deployment timelines. On skills, the business case of large-scale solar and the
solar companies have made considerable strides in accessibility of small-scale solar is improved.
48 MW, Tábua, Portugal. © Greenvolt

Outlook instability. Consequently, 19 out of 27 markets are
expected to grow year-on-year, 7 less than in 2023.
After the record year registered in 2023, growth is
expected to slow significantly to single digits in 2024 – In our most likely scenario, we expect the EU market
the first time since the lift of trade measures in 2018. This to grow 5% to 63.9 GW in 2024, followed by a partial
reduction can be attributed to the high baseline set by recovery in the next two years, up 12% to 71.8 GW in
2023 and a changing market environment. While more 2025 and 13% to 80.9 GW in 2026 (see Fig. GW 2.3.).
mature and well-established markets are now stabilising By 2028, our Medium Scenario anticipates 96.7 GW of
their growth path, cyclical markets face downturns annual capacity additions, although the High Scenario
because of unadjusted policy support and regulatory reaches the 100 GW mark already in 2026, and 126
GW in 2028.
FIGURE GW 2.3 EU-27 ANNUAL SOLAR PV MARKET SCENARIOS 2023-2028
140
126
120
100 97
9%
88
9%
81
80 75 13%
72
GW
12%
61 5% 64
60
60
52
40
20
0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Medium Scenario

Market concentration is decreasing rapidly. In 2019, 2024, the top 10 are estimated to account for 80% of
the top 10 markets installed 95% of solar capacity in the installed capacity while the top 5 will only cover
the EU, and the top 5 accounted for 78%. Since then, 60%. This trend is expected to continue, with 16 GW-
that share has been steadily decreasing to 83% for the scale markets by the end of 2024 compared to 14 GW
top 10 in 2023, and 65% for the top 5. By the end of markets in 2023. By 2025, 19 out of 27 EU markets will
reach the GW scale (see Fig. GW 2.4).
FIGURE GW 2.4 EU-27 GW MARKETS
2023 2024
Austria: 4% Sweden: 3% Greece: 3% Romania: 3%
France: 5% Belgium: 3%
Belgium: 3% Austria: 3% Sweden: 3%
Greece: 3% France: 6% Portugal: 3%
Poland: 8%
Hungary: 3% Bulgaria: 2%
Portugal: 2% Czech Republic: 2%
Romania: 2% Poland: 7% Hungary: 2%
Netherlands: 8% Bulgaria: 2% Ireland: 2%
Netherlands: 7%
14 GW Rest of Europe: 8% 16 GW Rest of Europe: 8%
Italy: 9% Markets Markets

Italy: 9%
Germany: 25% Germany: 25%

Spain: 15%
Spain: 12%
2025
Austria: 3% Belgium: 3%
Greece: 4% Sweden: 3%
Romania: 4% Portugal: 3%
Poland: 7% Bulgaria: 2%
Czech Republic: 2%
Ireland: 2%
Lithuania: 2%
Netherlands: 6%
Hungary: 2%
Denmark: 2%
Finland: 1%
France: 7% 19 GW Rest of Europe: 5%
Markets
Italy: 9%
Germany: 25%
Spain: 12%

Our cumulative installation forecast indicates that REPowerEU target, which is more ambitious, is still
NECP targets set by Member States are still well below 19% below the Medium Scenario projections and is
expected solar market developments. Even though expected to be reached by 2029 in the Medium
the aggregated NECP targets are 87% higher than the Scenario and 2028 in the High Scenario. It is important
original targets measured in 2019, they remain to note that these under-ambitious targets can have
significantly below EU ambition and projected market negative impacts on renewable energy deployment.
developments (see Fig. GW 2.5). Our extrapolation of For instance, insufficiently ambitious targets can lead
the Medium Scenario to 2030 results in 890 GW of to an underinvestment in grid infrastructure and
operating solar PV capacity by the end of the decade, demand response boosting policies. Realising true
which is 42% higher than the aggregate NECP targets. growth potential too late can cause significant hurdles
This means that the EU is expected to reach the in the future.
aggregated NECP target by 2028 already. The
Authors: Jonathan Gorremans, Raffaele Rossi &
Michael Schmela, SolarPower Europe.
FIGURE GW 2.5 EU-27 INSTALLED SOLAR PV CAPACITY SCENARIOS 2023-2030
900 890 GW
800
750 GW
700
626 GW
600
500
GW
400
335 GW
300
269
200
100
0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Medium Scenario projection to 2030 NECP 2023 (Extrapolated)
EU Commission REPowerEU Scenario NECP solar target 2019

Solar deployment increased across all market

3. United States segments. The utility-scale segment captured the
largest share of new capacity and the largest growth
Overview of 2023 PV development rate, with 22.5 GW and a 77% increase from 2022. The
The US solar industry had a record-breaking 2023. residential sector installed 6.8 GW, growing 13% from
2022, while the C&I segment installed 1.8 GW (+19%)
In the first full year of the Inflation Reduction Act’s clean and the community solar sector added 1.1 GW (+3%).
energy incentives, US solar businesses dramatically
expanded deployment across market segments, and
domestic solar manufacturers moved forward major Drivers for solar growth
investments across the solar value chain. In 2021, the United States set a goal to reach 100%
While the US solar market is growing rapidly, the siting, carbon-free electricity by 2035 and, since then, the US
permitting, and interconnection of solar projects remains solar industry has raced to meet this goal.
a key challenge for developers, and global market Solar was the top technology for new electricity
conditions continue to put pressure on US producers. generation capacity in 2023, accounting for 53% of
According to the Solar Energy Industries Association’s new generating capacity. This was the fifth
(SEIA) Solar Market Insight Year in Review, the US added consecutive year that solar led new capacity additions
a record 32.4 GW of new solar capacity in 2023. This and the first time solar accounted for over half of new
represents a 51% increase from 2022. In terms of total electricity generating capacity.
capacity, the US now operates a solar fleet of more than In fact, it was also the first time in 80 years that a renewable
180 GW, up 22% from 148 GW in 2022 (see Fig. GW 3.1). electricity source accounted for over 50% of new annual
capacity additions to the US grid (see Fig GW 3.2).
FIGURE GW 3.1 UNITED STATES CUMULATIVE SOLAR PV CAPACITY 2010-2023, BY SEIA
200
180.2
180
160
147.8
140
126.4
120
102.9
GW
100
83.2
80 69.5
58.7
60
46.8
40 31.5
22.8
20 15.5
5.3 9.3
2.9
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
SOURCE: SEIA/Wood Mackenzie Solar Market Insight Report 2023 Year in Review. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

FIGURE GW 3.2 NEW US ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITION 2010-2023, BY SEIA
100 4 4 3 1 3 2 2 2 2
8 6 8
10 12
9 15
90 19
17
11 29 17
32
Share of new installed capacity (%)
80 27 29 40 19
18
47
70 36 57
60 38 33 13
44 46 24
31
50 27
36 37 22
40
25
41 18
30 5
41 53
28 46
20 38 37 43
25 35
28 29
10 24 23
8 10
4
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Solar Wind Natural gas Coal Other
SOURCE: SEIA/Wood Mackenzie Solar Market Insight Report 2023 Year in Review. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024
Elm Branch solar park, 163 MW, Texas, United States. ©Lightsource bp

By 2040, solar is expected to be the largest source of The most pressing challenges are related to siting,
total US electric generating capacity. Long-term permitting, and interconnecting solar projects. Long
deployment and manufacturing incentives in the interconnection queues with US regulators and a variety
Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are foundational to of local permitting challenges can alter the timeline and
meeting these milestones. cost of solar projects. The move by FERC to reform
interconnection regulations is positive, but success will
The IRA includes a 10-year extension of the investment
ultimately depend on effective implementation.
tax credit (ITC), which is critical to financing projects
Addressing these barriers will be key to meeting US clean
and driving deployment. Growth may also be boosted
energy goals and the country’s growing power demand.
by recent interconnection reforms. In 2023, the Federal
Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued an order The value of solar in the US is also impacted by federal
which attempts to reduce solar project development and state policy changes. The Federal Reserve’s
timelines by penalising transmission providers for not decision to maintain high interest rates will limit solar
conducting interconnection studies in accordance growth across the rooftop and utility-scale sectors. In
with defined deadlines. addition, the outlook for rooftop solar could be
impacted if more states follow California and transition
The IRA also included new incentives for domestic
away from net metering to programmes that lower
solar manufacturing across the value chain. Some of
export compensation rates for solar customers.
these facilities have already started production,
including new inverter, racking, and module The US manufacturing buildout is expected to reduce
manufacturing. More facilities are expected to come supply chain risk and encourage more deployment. While
online in the next few years, including missing parts of domestic manufacturing is rapidly expanding, it takes
the US solar value chain such as wafers and cells. In time to build domestic supply chains, and falling global
2023 alone, solar module manufacturing capacity solar prices are putting pressure on domestic producers.
grew from 8.5 GW to over 16 GW. Meanwhile, the risk of potential trade action continues
to inject uncertainty into the US deployment outlook.
Challenges Finally, there is policy uncertainty tied to the upcoming
2024 presidential election. This could potentially shift US
While the US solar industry is larger than ever, many
clean energy goals, the impact of recently passed
technical, policy, and regulatory issues continue to
incentives, and the urgency to fix the regulatory
restrict the long-term pace of solar growth.
challenges impeding more exponential solar deployment.
Author: The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA).
© OMCO Solar

addition of 12.3 GWAC of new solar PV capacity, with
4. Brazil about 8.3 GWAC attributed to distributed generation
and nearly 4.1 GWAC to centralised generation.
Overview
As a result of this impressive growth, Brazil was ranked
In 2023, the Brazilian solar PV market has shown its as the third largest solar PV market in 2023 in terms
resilience despite an apparently unfavourable of added capacity, and sixth in terms of cumulative
macroeconomic environment in the country. The installed capacity.
basic interest rate (SELIC rate) was 13.75% during the
first semester of 2023, then slowly decreased in the
second semester to reach 11.75% by the end of the Distributed and centralised PV system developments
year. In Brazil, this basic interest rate has a substantial In Brazil, solar PV systems are categorised into two
impact on the local economy, as well as the access to main types:
financing. For the solar PV sector, a high cost of capital
can significantly impact the availability and feasibility 1. Distributed generation: this encompasses small-
and medium-sized solar PV systems, each equal to
of loans for new solar PV systems.
or below 5 MW in capacity. These systems
Adding to this challenging context, several electricity participate in the Brazilian national net-metering
distribution utilities started to block the connection of program, allowing for the exchange of surplus
new distributed solar PV projects, under alleged claims electricity with the grid;
of reverse power flow in different points of the grid. 2. Centralised generation: large-scale solar PV power
This negatively impacted small and medium solar PV plants with capacities exceeding 5 MW. These
systems’ market growth in some areas of the country, plants commercialise their electricity through
resulting in hundreds of millions of US dollars in regulated market auctions administered by the
postponed investments. Federal Government or through bilateral PPAs
within the free electricity market.
Despite these challenges, Brazil's solar PV market
remains on a steady upward trajectory, solidifying its As established by the legal framework for distributed
relevance in the renewable energy sector. At the end renewable generation in the country (Law nº
of 2023, the nation achieved a total installed solar PV 14,300/2022), the beginning of 2023 saw a change in
capacity of 37.9 GWAC, surpassing official government the net-metering mechanism for new solar PV
forecasts yet again. Notably, 2023 witnessed the distributed generation projects. The law introduced a
Parnaíba - MS, Brazil. © ABSOLAR/HC Drones

gradual fee for the use of the grid when electricity is 2.8 GWAC in 2022 to 4.1 GWAC in 2023, mostly selling
injected into it. Since this change only applied to new its electricity through bilateral PPAs on the wholesale
systems requested from 2023 onwards, there was a electricity market.
peak of applications for new distributed generation
solar PV in 2022. As a result, the distributed generation
Solar PV Forecast
market boomed to record numbers in 2022. In light of
this, there were concerns as to how these new The Brazilian Solar Photovoltaic Energy Association
conditions would affect the market in 2023. The good (ABSOLAR) forecasts a lower but still robust market
news is that the solar PV distributed generation performance for solar in 2024. It is expected an annual
market remained strong in 2023, decreasing by less addition of new 9.4 GWAC of new solar PV capacity,
than 0.2 GWAC (-2%) when compared to 2022. considering both centralised and distributed
generation. The projected slowdown is driven by the
On the other hand, Brazil has made significant
lack of transmission infrastructure that limits the
progress in large-scale solar PV power plants. In 2023,
dispatch of new centralised generation in some
the annual installed capacity of new centralised
regions and limitation for new connection of
generation solar PV systems increased by 47.5%, from
distributed generation projects.
FIGURE GW 4.1 FORECAST OF SOLAR PV INSTALLED CAPACITY IN BRAZIL, BY ABSOLAR
90 Total optimistic scenario

Total conservative scenario
80 77.4
Installed capacity (GWAC)
70 67.7
59.7
60 62.1
52.9 57.3
50 47.3 53.2
49.4
45.1
40
30
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Distributed Solar Conservative Scenario (MWAC) 30,940 32,851 33,699 34,309 34,916
Distributed Solar Optimistic Scenario (MWAC) 32,375 34,979 37,940 41,181 44,981
Centralised Solar Conservative Scenario (MWAC) 14,179 16,570 19,462 22,962 27,197
Centralised Solar Optimistic Scenario (MWAC) 14,903 17,940 21,736 26,482 32,413
Total Conservative Scenario (MWAC) 45,119 49,421 53,161 57,271 107,094
Total Optimistic Scenario (MWAC) 47,278 52,919 59,676 67,663 77,394
SOURCE: ABSOLAR (2023) and official projections from EPE (2022). © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

According to ABSOLAR and based on official projects. ABSOLAR has been working to defend and
projections from the Brazilian Energy Research Office represent the solar PV sector towards the Federal
(EPE), solar PV may reach between 62.1 GWAC Government, the regulatory agency, other technical
(Conservative Scenario) and 77.4 GWAC (Optimistic authorities and the Brazilian National Congress to
Scenario) of cumulative installed capacity by 2028. For develop solutions for these problems. To further
distributed generation, the cumulative installed unlock the immense Brazilian solar PV potential, it is
capacity until 2028 may reach between 34.9 GWAC and essential to structure good public policies,
45 GWAC. For centralised generation, ABSOLAR programmes, and incentives, at the federal, state, and
estimates average annual capacity installations municipal levels.
between 3.3 GWAC and 4.2 GWAC until 2028. The total
The current Federal Government has a special focus
yearly forecast for both centralised and distributed
on social and environmental topics. This is a positive
generation is between 4.8 GWAC and 7.9 GW AC of solar
environment for solar PV use in social programmes
PV average capacity additions between 2024 and 2028.
developed by the public authorities, as an alternative
to the country’s high electricity price. Taking this into
Challenges and opportunities consideration, ABSOLAR is recommending the
implementation of solar PV systems in low-income
Despite the promising future of solar PV in Brazil, there
households through the “Minha Casa Minha Vida”, the
are regulatory and infrastructure bottlenecks that
“Luz para Todos” and the “Mais Luz para a Amazônia”
must be considered. Distributed generation is facing
government programmes. Additionally, the
challenges for new connections to the grid. This
association is motivating the authorities to expand the
problem is based more on legal and regulatory
use of solar PV in government-owned buildings,
grounds than on technical difficulty, as electricity
assisting the government in reducing their electricity
distribution utilities are using misinterpretations in the
costs and carbon footprint.
Law nº 14,300/2022 as a justification to deny new
connection applications. Furthermore, the lack of In addition to solar, Brazil has an immense potential in
transmission infrastructure in certain regions could energy storage and green hydrogen technologies.
continue to limit the development of new large-scale According to McKinsey’s 2021 article “Green
817.9 kW Ana Nery Hospital, Santa Cruz do Sul-RS, Brazil. © ABSOLAR

Hydrogen: an opportunity to create sustainable wealth strategic role on the international stage, and has a
in Brazil and the world”, green hydrogen alone may unique opportunity to showcase its economy and
bring more than 200 billion USD in new investments market, both to the international community and
to the country by 2040. renewable energy investors.
It is important to highlight that, since December 2023, ABSOLAR will continue to defend solar PV in Brazil,
Brazil holds the G20 presidency, representing the energy storage, and green hydrogen sectors, and will
most industrialised economies in the world. continue to develop and implement strategic
Additionally, in November 2025 Brazil will host the 30th recommendations to increase the widespread
Conference of the Parties to the United Nations adoption of solar PV and sustainable technologies in
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC the country.
COP30), in the city of Belém, the capital of the state
Authors: Dr. Rodrigo Lopes Sauaia, CEO; Dr. Vinicius
of Pará. In light of this, the country currently has a
Suppion, Technical and Regulatory Specialist; ABSOLAR.

Utility-scale and rooftop developments in 2023-24
5. India In the objective of escalating residential rooftop
Overview of PV developments installations in India, in February 2024, the government
launched the PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana scheme,
2023 has been one of the best years in India’s solar aiming to provide free electricity to households in India.
industry. The country installed around 15.5 GW of solar Under the programme, households will be provided with
in India’s Financial Year (FY) April 2023 to March 2024, a subsidy to install solar panels on their roofs. The
reaching 81.8 GW of cumulative capacity (see Fig GW subsidy will cover up to 40% of the cost of the PV
5.1). India’s renewable energy capacity as of 31st March system. The scheme is expected to benefit 10 million
2024 stands at 143 GW without including large households across India and add 30 GW of capacity in
hydropower installations, positioning India at 4th place the next 3 years. It is also estimated that the scheme
globally in terms of installed RE capacity, and 4th place will save the Indian government 9 billion USD (8.3 billion
in terms of solar energy installations, which constitute EUR) per year in electricity costs.
57% of the total RE capacity.
On the utility-scale front, the development of Solar
Out of the total 81.8 GW cumulative solar capacity, Parks and Ultra Mega Solar Power Projects, launched
64.4 GW come from utility-scale installations, while in December 2014 with an initial capacity of 20 GW,
grid-connected solar rooftop installations contribute has seen a significant increase to 40 GW by 2025-26.
11.9 GW. Additionally, hybrid projects integrating solar As of November 30, 2023, the Ministry has awarded
components have added 2.6 GW to the nation's solar 50 solar parks across 12 states, totalling 37.5 GW in
capacity, while off-grid solar systems contribute 3 GW. capacity, with 10.4 GW already commissioned.
Furthermore, it is predicted that in the next financial
year 2024-2025, India will add around 26-30 GW of In FY 2023-2024, India’s renewable tenders reached
solar energy installations. Along with accelerating solar 70 GW, far surpassing the annual bidding target of 50
deployment, India’s solar manufacturing saw a 100% GW. This highlights the importance of utility-scale
growth, increasing module manufacturing capacity solar and hybrid installations in the coming two years.
from 21 GW to 44 GW.
FIGURE GW 5.1 RE SECTOR-WISE CUMULATIVE CAPACITY, BY NSEFI
Biomass (Non -Bagasse): 0.92 GW

Small hydro: 5.0 GW
Biomass (Bagasse): 9.4 GW
Wind power: 45.9 GW

143 GW
Solar power: 81.8 GW
SOURCE: NSEFI. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

India’s government has also announced an additional has started to meet the set targets to increase solar
13 GW of renewable energy capacity alongside a 12 manufacturing to 100 GW for 2026 (see Fig. GW 5.2).
GWh BESS in Ladakh, with the construction of an Inter- The targets, which have been revised upwards from
State Transmission System to facilitate power last year, will bring India to become the world’s second-
evacuation and grid integration for these projects. largest solar manufacturing hub by 2025.
In 2023, the government has also set Renewable
Purchase Obligation (RPO) targets, mandating an Challenges
increasing share of renewable energy in the total
Transmission Infrastructure. With growing PV capacity
energy mix until 2030, indicating a significant leap
additions and ambitious targets, timely deployment of
towards sustainability.
grids will be a key issue to address in the coming years
With the implementation of the Production Linked to achieve India’s transmission targets, especially
Incentive (PLI) in 2022, aiming to escalate and beyond 2025. While the Indian government has already
promote domestic manufacturing in India, production pledged investments in creating a dedicated Inter State
FIGURE GW 5.2 INDIA’S MANUFACTURING OUTLOOK FOR 2024-2028, BY NSEFI
150
125
Module 100
78
60
100
80
Cell 65
45
28
75
60
Wafer+ingot 40
2028
25
8 2027
2026
75
2025
60
Polysilicon 40 2024
25
8
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

GW

Transmission System (ISTS) along with a Green Energy Outlook
Corridor, there are also requirements to establish
India already exceeded the target of tendering 50 GW
transmission systems in states with moderate
a year in 2023, and obtained bids for 70 GW of RE
availability of solar resources.
projects with a major share coming from solar. The
Land Availability. In the coming years, due to the sheer majority of these projects will be commissioned in the
volume of solar generation that will be integrated to the next three years. This indicates that India will add as
grid, there are a number of challenges that India needs much solar in the next three years as it has added in
to address, including land availability. It will be important the last 10 years. The country is also poised to reach
to mobilise two possible solutions to address this the 100 GW mark before April 2025, and will cross the
challenge. First, the government, taking cue from the 150 GW mark by February 2027.
success of Ultra Mega Solar Parks, can look at identifying
Authors: Subrahmanyam Pulipaka, CEO; Shubhang
hubs where integrated renewable energy generation,
Parekh, Manager - International Relations and New
including storage, can be stationed. A second solution
Projects; National Solar Energy Federation of India
to land-use constraints can be dual use of land, whereby
(NSEFI).
solar generation is co-located with agricultural activities,
for example low risk crops including horticulture. This
can also increase land use efficiency while helping the
nation achieve its energy targets.
FIGURE GW 5.3 INDIA 5-YEAR SOLAR OUTLOOK
300
258
250
220 217
200 185 185
150 155
GW
150
127
116
103
100
50
0
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Low High

© Seecan Renewable
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Japanese solar and renewable energy targets
6. Japan • The government’s PV target: According to the Long-
Overview of PV developments term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook (Energy
Outlook) published by the Ministry of Economy,
Having achieved record capacity addition of 10.8 GW Trade and Industry (METI), the cumulative installed
in 2015, the Japanese PV market has been on a PV capacity target for 2030 is 130-147 GW (104-
downtrend following the reduced FIT support for solar 118 GWAC) to meet the new carbon reduction target
PV. In 2023, Japan installed around 6.2 GW of new solar of up to 50% by 2030.
PV capacity, down some 0.5 GW from 2022. The
cumulative installed capacity at the end of 2023 is • Renewable Energy Target: According to the METI’s
expected to reach 91.3 GW. Even with the reduced FIT Energy Outlook, the renewable part of its energy
support, Japan’s PV market is expected to start generation mix is 36-38% by 2030.
trending upward again from 2024, due to the growth • Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association's (JPEA)
in residential and C&I rooftop markets, and new vision (PV OUTLOOK 2050): In JPEA’s PV OUTLOOK
corporate renewable PPA models. Japan’s emissions 2050, the cumulative installed PV capacity is
reduction target of 46–50% by 2030 will require a expected to be around 154 GW (125 GWAC) in 2030.
large increase in the share of renewable energy, in This ambitious target – which is 7 GW higher than
particular solar PV.
FIGURE GW 6.1 JAPANESE SOLAR PV MARKET SCENARIOS 2024-2028, BY JPEA
12
10.8
10 9.7
8
6.7
6.2
GW
0
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Historical JPEA’s PV Outlook 2050
SOURCE: JPEA. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

METI’s target – means, on average, that around 9 An additional driver to solar growth stems from
GW of solar PV will have to be installed every year policies setting PV mandates for new buildings. The
from 2024 until 2030. Tokyo Metropolitan Government, and Kawasaki City,
will make it mandatory to install PV systems on new
buildings, including detached houses, starting in 2025.
Drivers for solar growth in Japan
If similar installation mandates spread to
The FIT scheme has been the strongest driver of solar municipalities across the country, the PV market,
growth in Japan since its introduction in July 2012. especially residential rooftop, will expand significantly.
However, the relevance of this FIT scheme has
In addition to the needs of renewable energy users, the
decreased, and a more market-oriented Feed in
PPA model is beginning to gain traction in the Japanese
Premium (FIP) has been introduced in April 2022.
PV market, driven by government subsidies and rising
Instead of setting a fixed feed-in tariff rate, the FIP
electricity prices. According to METI, the installed
scheme allocates a certain amount of premium in
capacity of the PPA model outside the FIT Scheme
addition to the wholesale electricity price. This way,
reached some 0.6 GW in 2022.
the remuneration level is connected to the current
electricity prices. Under the new framework, larger
projects will be subject to the FIP remuneration, while Utility-scale vs. distributed & rooftop solar
the FIT is maintained for smaller systems. The new developments
FIT/FIP scheme is expected to be a new driver for
In 2023, residential PV (below 10 kW) capacity
solar demand.
additions totalled some 1.0 GWAC, same as in 2021. We
The ‘self-consumption business model’ for expect this segment to grow further, supported by the
commercial and industrial users is growing rapidly in FIT and various subsidies for net-zero energy houses
Japan. On-site, self-consumption PV systems are (ZEH), battery systems, etc. Beyond 2025, municipal
becoming more attractive to business users, as the PV installation mandates for new buildings, including
LCOE of PV power generation is already competitive those from the Tokyo Metropolitan Government and
with the retail electricity prices of commercial and Kawasaki City, could be a strong driver of residential
industrial users. rooftop market growth.
102.3 MW Terras Energy Yakumo Solar Park, Hokkaido, Japan. © Terras Energy

Distributed solar PV under 1 MW, mostly ground- emergence of PPA type business models, this
mounted, is on a downward trend since 2016, mainly decade will see the transition towards a market
due to reduced FIT support. This segment requires a growth with little reliance on the FIT/FIP regime.
business transformation, for example, from a simple
• Grid constraints: Limited grid capacity and
ground-mounted system to a self-consumption
curtailment risks are the primary causes for the
system integrated with renewable energy users’
downward market trend in Japan. In 2023, the
and/or local community’s energy demand. The
curtailment of solar PV in the Kyushu area
segment is also expected to grow again with the
increased to around 8%, and the risk became
growth of corporate PPAs outside the FIT scheme.
apparent. METI is working on additional mitigation
Large solar PV systems of 1 MW and above, including measures to minimise curtailment risk, including
utility-scale systems, are also trending downwards. In demand-side management and flexible supply-side
addition to the FIT termination, power grid constraints operations. Moreover, METI is developing the long-
and land availability have also contributed to reduced term grid expansion programme to accommodate
demand. This segment is likely to start growing again large amounts of renewable energy.
in the medium term, as soon as these constraints are
• Land availability: New business models without
overcome, and with improved cost competitiveness.
dedicated land space (e.g., on-site self-
Following the introduction of the FIP regime, many
consumption models), and utilisation of
investors and developers are preferring to wait due to
unused/abandoned farmland are a solution to the
the significant uncertainties about future electricity
limited land availability problem. To date,
prices. At the same time, they are turning more and
conversion of unused/abandoned farmland to solar
more towards on-site PPAs.
farms is very limited as it requires strict legal
procedures, and the local authorities’ permission.
Challenges The government is now tackling those constraints
by reforming existing laws and regulations.
• Smooth transition from FIT to FIP: FIPs were
introduced in 2022 as a mandatory incentive • Cost competitiveness: The cost of solar PV in Japan
mechanism for large-scale solar PV (250 kW and still needs to be reduced to compete with the
above from 2024), and optional for distributed solar conventional gas and/or coal fired power plants. The
PV (50 kW – 250 kW from 2024). One of the biggest average cost of the ground-mounted Solar PV of 250
challenges for the industry and for policymakers is kW is estimated at around 12 JPY/kWh (0.073
the smooth transition from FITs to more market EUR/kWh). The FIT for a ground-mounted PV system
oriented FIPs. between 10 and 50 kW is set at 10 JPY/kWh (0.061
EUR/kWh) and 8.9 JPY/kWh (0.054 EUR/kWh), for
• Business model transformation: The role of FIT/FIP
systems from 50 kW to 250 kW for 2025.
will gradually shrink in the coming years. With the
Author: Takeaki Masukawa, Secretary General, Japan
Photovoltaic Energy Association (JPEA).

National Targets
7. Australia The Albanese government remains committed to
Overview achieving 82% renewable energy by 2030. The focus will
remain on the development of utility-scale projects, and
In 2023, Australia saw the first year of reduced growth integration of the grid across the country. Transmission
since 2013, with 4.6 GW of solar PV capacity installed. needs the most development in this space, with various
Rooftop solar made up the majority of this with 3.17 social licence issues arising with landholders.
GW of new installations, as Australia continues to lead
the world for the share of households with rooftop Recent slowdowns in renewable energy capacity growth,
solar, with over one-third of all residential homes using especially in utility-scale projects, are due in a major part
rooftop solar. to the planning and approvals process. Bottlenecks in
government mean that some projects face months of
The percentage of overall electricity generation from delays before a site can be developed. This also impacts
renewables continues to rise, reaching 39% of total investment in utility-scale solar PV projects.
generation in 2023, compared to 36% in 2022.
However, there has been a noticeable stall in utility-
scale solar developments. Drivers
The Australian Labor government continues to Announced in 2023, the Capacity Investment Scheme
advocate for Australia’s role in the renewable energy aims to achieve 23 GW of new renewable electricity
transition, committing significant resources to solar generation, with another 9 GW of dispatchable
PV manufacturing and capacity generation. Notably, capacity, between now and 2027. It focuses on utility-
the announcement of a Net Zero Economy Authority scale development, which has seen a significant
highlights the current government’s role in guiding slowdown in the last year. The Scheme aims to
Australia to Net Zero. increase utility-scale capacity mostly by encouraging
investments, following a major drop in 2023.
© Tindo Solar

Announced in early 2024, the Solar Sunshot Market Challenges
Programme aims to use 1 billion AUD to boost
The major challenge is network connection &
Australia’s solar PV manufacturing capacity. The
transmission for utility-scale solar PV, and market
government believes developing domestic capability
design and operation that continue to penalise PV (&
in this area of the supply chain is essential for
wind). There have been some major policy initiatives
maintaining Australia’s prominence as a renewable
by the Federal Government, now a strong supporter of
energy powerhouse. This announcement follows
renewables, and in States and Territories. These have
more than 830 million AUD in previous funding for
been accompanied by financial commitments which
large-scale projects.
should see growth in our sector. Policies and funding
now mandate firmed supply, so we are seeing a
Utility-scale vs distributed massive increase in hybrid plants with batteries and
addition of batteries to existing facilities.
Out of the 56 renewable energy projects under
construction as of December 2023, 38 were utility- The national opposition party coalition’s obsession with
scale PV projects. This share is down from 2022, due nuclear power continues to grow. With Australia’s
to an abnormally large number of projects being current position and history, nuclear power is the most
approved in previous years. However, the trend of expensive and slowest energy source to develop as we
recent slowdowns in utility-scale capacity growth is continue to transition away from coal and gas power
evident from a slow pipeline of approvals. stations. The possibility of nuclear power is being
flaunted as a delay tactic to extend the life of our coal-
Only 1.5 billion AUD was secured for utility-scale
fired power stations, going against the booming solar PV
developments in 2023, as opposed to 6.5 billion AUD
industry, which already provides the cheapest electricity.
secured in 2022. This is likely due to a slowing approval
process and a backlog of projects undertaken in
previous years.
Tindo Solar Pv manufacturing plant in Adelaide, Australia. © Tindo Solar

Outlook for coming years Concerning large-scale solar PV, there is a need to
unlock barriers to deployment, including significant
Australia still has enormous untapped potential for
delays in planning approvals processes.
solar PV in the residential, commercial and large-scale
solar fields. Solar PV will play a critical role in Australia reaching its
target of 82% renewables for 2030, with the condition
In the residential area, there is a need to unlock
that governments unlock critical barriers to deployment.
investment for lower income earners in public and
private housing, including amongst renters. The Author: Steve Blume, Secretary, Smart Energy Council
commercial solar industry is growing significantly off a & Connor Price SEC Policy Analyst.
low base, but there is enormous potential for solar PV on
office buildings, apartments and large public buildings.
FIGURE GW 7.1 AUSTRALIA SMALL-SCALE SOLAR PV INSTALLATIONS 2019-2023
120 1,200
100 1,000
Annual installed capacity (MW)

Installations (thousands)
80 800
60 600
40 400
20 200
0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Installations Installed capacity
SOURCE: Clean Energy Regulator (CER). © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

installed capacity increasing by approximately 3.3 GW.
8. South Africa As a result, South Africa now operates a solar fleet
larger than 8 GW, across all market segments.
Overview of PV developments
The South African Solar PV landscape has changed National solar PV targets
dramatically in the last few years since first crossing
the 1 GW annual installed capacity threshold in 2020. South African national energy procurement is guided
Regulatory reforms enacted in 2022 have resulted in by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy
unprecedented growth in the private utility-scale (DMRE) through the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)
project development sector, while energy security 2019. A Draft IRP 2023 revision was released for
concerns have driven the uptake of residential solar public comment in January 2024. The draft version
PV and BESS systems. has 2 planning horizons, from 2025 to 2030, and from
2031 to 2050. The first horizon is focused primarily
The unbundling of South Africa’s vertically integrated on energy security, while the second horizon
national utility, ESKOM, into three distinct units, proposes a few energy scenarios for South Africa,
namely Generation, Transmission and Distribution, ranging from a balance of existing coal, nuclear and
further indicates that the electricity supply industry is renewable generation technologies to renewable
rapidly changing in South Africa. The unbundling will dominated plans.
drive private sector participation and competition in
generation. Private sector participation in Until the IRP 2023 revision is formally adopted by the
transmission infrastructure development is currently DMRE after a public participation programme, the
under discussion to unlock solar PV projects in high 2019 IRP allocations will remain in force. The current
renewable potential areas suffering from grid solar PV targets are 8.3 GW or 10.52% of the total
connection constraints. installed capacity, for 2030. A total of 4.3 GW has been
procured to date across six bidding rounds of the
Against this backdrop, the South African solar PV Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer
market has grown significantly in 2023 with the total Procurement Program (REIPPPP) of which 2.2 GW is
SCATEC Kenhardt Project, Northern Cape province, 540 MW solar coupled with 225 MW/ 1,140 MWh battery storage. © SCATEC

already operational. A seventh REIPPPP bidding round households and businesses investing in solar rooftop
for 1.8 GW of Solar PV capacity was released in solutions. Various commercial banks launched
December 2023. products linked to the EBBS in Q4 2023 after it was
launched in August 2023.
Public procurement of Battery Energy Storge Systems
(BESS) took off in 2023 with 2 procurement rounds Last year, energy resilience became an increasingly
released. The BESS procurement is aimed specifically important driver of demand in the C&I market
at easing network congestion in high solar penetration segment. Commercial banking members of the South
areas and allowing more solar generation to be African Photovoltaic Industry Association (SAPVIA)
connected in the future. The first round for 513 MW of reported that up to 85% of C&I projects funded in
BESS at specific substations in the Northern Cape was 2023 combined rooftop solar PV with BESS, a
released in March. Five preferred bidders were significant shift from previous years. BESS coupled
announced in November 2023. A second round of with C&I solar offer many advantages to customers
procurement for 615 MW/2,460 MWh of BESS capacity beyond loadshedding resilience – self-consumption
was released to the market in December 2023. optimisation, peak demand management and peak
load shifting to name a few.
Drivers of solar growth The greatest driver for overall solar PV demand in
South Africa has been the regulatory reforms enacted
Demand for solar PV in South Africa has market
in December 2022, removing the licence threshold for
segment specific drivers. Residential demand for solar
private sector projects. Apart from the 10 MW
PV and BESS has been predominantly driven by the
threshold removal, projects are no longer required to
electricity generation shortfall, and the ensuing power
apply for ministerial determination to construct and
cuts from loadshedding. While C&I demand has
operate a pure generation facility in South Africa. This
traditionally been driven by OPEX control and
reform, coupled with the demand from large-scale
sustainability concerns, utility-scale demand has been
industrial energy users for more sustainable electricity
driven both by the growth of offsite generation for
sources, has resulted in the unprecedented growth of
bilateral PPAs, and by the emergence of energy
the private PPA market in South Africa, ultimately
aggregators and traders, a new feature in the South
driving the development of utility-scale solar PV
African market.
projects. All solar PV projects installed in South Africa
South Africa experienced 6,907 hours of loadshedding larger than 100 kW are required to register with the
in 2023, the worst year on record and an 82.9% National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA)
increase compared to 2022. As such, the residential prior to construction. In 2023, 384 solar PV projects
demand for solar PV and BESS was driven up to meet with a total capacity of more than 2.7 GW were
the emergency electricity needs for many South registered with NERSA. The provincial distribution of
African households. The South African residential registered projects is displayed in Figure GW 8.1.
market’s installed capacity increased by
Electricity Wheeling is a uniquely South African term
approximately 330 MW in 2023, while approximately
referring to the practice of off-site generation,
450 MWh of home batteries were added in 2023,
predominantly in rural high renewable production
bringing the total residential battery fleet to 1.4 GWh.
areas, “wheeling” energy across the existing
The uptake of residential solar PV systems has transmission and distribution networks to industrial
unfortunately been limited to higher income off-takers. The practice involves a bilateral PPA or
households. As a result, the South African government could involve energy aggregators or traders facilitating
supported the rollout of financing schemes targeting the transactions. In 2023, 2.1 GW of wheeling-specific
middle income households. One such scheme is the solar PV projects were registered with NERSA,
Energy Bounce Back Scheme (EBBS) supported by the representing 79% of all registered projects by capacity
National Treasury. The EBBS provides a 20% first loss and 86% of all projects larger than 10 MW. This shows
guarantee to participating banks to de-risk lending to a clear trend in the market towards larger-scale private
sector projects.

FIGURE GW 8.1 SUM OF CAPACITY BY PROVINCE, BY SAPVIA
900
800 777
700
600 572
533
487
500
MW
400
300
200 167
100 83
48 42 30
0
Northern North Limpopo Free Gauteng Mpumalanga Eastern Kwazulu- Western
Cape West State Cape Natal Cape
SOURCE: SAPVIA. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024
Unfortunately, wheeling does not guarantee energy distribution system operator where the system is located.
security for off-takers. Since off-takers are often Registrations and technical compliance levels are
embedded with a distribution network, they are significantly higher in the C&I market segment.
exposed to the risk of the distribution network being
The greatest challenge still facing the utility-scale sector
de-energised due to loadshedding, thus negating the
is the lack of grid-connection capacity in high renewable
ability to wheel energy from the IPP.
potential areas combined with the slow pace of expected
transmission infrastructure rollout. In 2023, the high solar
Challenges potential areas of South Africa, in the Northern, Western
and Eastern Cape provinces, respectively, had exhausted
Within an integrated network of distribution entities,
all available grid-connection capacity. The next best areas
statutory bodies and regulatory organisations aimed at
– namely the Free State and the North-West provinces –
streamlining installation and equipment standards,
are expected to exhaust all available capacity within the
technical interconnection requirements and approval
next 2 to 3 years. The ESKOM transmission entity
processes, the speed of regulatory reform has been far
estimates that approximately 14,000 km of new
slower than the market uptake of solar PV systems.
transmission lines are needed by 2032 to integrate
Undercapacity within these entities to address the
approximately 53 GW of expected renewable projects.
required regulatory reforms has been a challenge for the
This represents 43% of the existing 33,000 km of
South African solar PV market for much of the last decade.
transmission infrastructure. This infrastructure is
This has resulted in approximately 45% of the residential
expected to be rolled out in a phased approach with 79%
solar PV systems not being registered with the respective
of the planned rollout to take place from 2028 to 2032.

Finally, skill shortages across both semi-skilled and skilled technology will enable the development of bankable
sectors remain a barrier to the solar PV market’s growth projects to participate in the wholesale market, even if
rate in South Africa. Additional uncertainties regarding the the projects are in less desirable solar resource areas
medium-term sustainability of residential solar PV due to grid capacity constraints.
demand are hampering the establishment of medium- to
Unfortunately, South Africa will run the risk of
long-term skill development interventions for residential
loadshedding in the short and medium term until the
installations. The large rooftop and utility-scale market
addition of new generation capacity from various
segments are resorting to direct recruitment of university
sources is systematically matched with appropriate
skills or external expert skills from more established
system adequacy. Thus, loadshedding will continue to
markets to meet the skill requirements of the sector.
play a significant role in the solar PV market, as has been
the case in driving demand and uptake of residential
Outlook for the years 2024-2028 solar PV and BESS. However, the residential market
must adapt and prepare for an increasingly likely future
The energy supply industry in South Africa is
with lower levels of loadshedding by introducing
undergoing structural changes, initiated in 2017,
alternative revenue streams to new installations.
resulting in opportunities for solar PV deployment
Residential incentives including feed-in tariffs,
while addressing some of the challenges listed above.
additional tax incentives and the integration of PV and
The unbundling of the state-owned, vertically- batteries with the expected rise of electric vehicles will
integrated utility ESKOM into three units and the become the focus for driving residential demand.
establishment of an independent transmission system
Finally, the decarbonisation of supply chains in
operator presents an opportunity for solar PV to play a
response to Nationally Determined Contribution
significant role in the energy generation sector in South
(NDC) targets or international trade requirements,
Africa. The work of establishing a wholesale electricity
such as the recently introduced EU Carbon Border
market is gaining momentum, with a target date of 1st
Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), will drive further
April 2026 set for the introduction of the market. This
uptake of solar PV in the C&I sector, whether through
will be followed by a five-year transition period to a fully
on-site or off-site solar generation.
functioning wholesale day-ahead, balancing, and
ancillary services market. The expected cost Authors: De Wet Taljaard, Technical Specialist: Solar
decreases in solar generation and utility-scale BESS Energy, South African PV Industry Association (SAPVIA).
6.8 MW, Boardwalk Inkwazi, Richard's Bay, South Africa. © SolarEFF

with an annual installation rate of around 2 GW of
9. United Arab renewable energy capacity. In 2023, 2.6 GW of new
capacity was connected to the grid. This brought total
Emirates installations to 5.3 GW by the end of last year, according
to IRENA (see Fig. GW 9.1).
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has emerged as a
pioneer in developing solar PV energy, driven by its
National Solar PV and RE targets
ambitious goals for a sustainable energy future and a
commitment to diversifying its energy mix. The UAE has set ambitious national targets for solar PV
deployment, serving as a driving force behind its solar
energy development. The Dubai Clean Energy Strategy
Overview of PV development up to 2023
2050 aims to produce 75% of Dubai's energy from
The UAE has firmly established itself as a leader in solar renewable sources by 2050, with interim targets of 7%
PV development by completing numerous large-scale for 2020 and 25% for 2030. Similarly, Abu Dhabi's Plan
projects in 2023. Most notably, the world’s largest envisions installing 5.6 GW solar PV capacity by 2026.
single-site solar power plant, Dubai's 2 GW Al Dhafra These targets underscore the UAE's long-term vision
solar PV project, was commissioned in November 2023. and commitment to renewable energy adoption.
This achievement is a testament to the country's
"relentless efforts to enhance the amount of renewable
Drivers for Solar Growth
energy in the entire power mix" and its commitment to
a sustainable energy future. The UAE's growth in the The UAE's drive for solar growth in 2023 was fuelled by its
solar PV sector is further shown by its reputation as one ambitious renewable energy targets and a combination
of the region's fastest-growing utility-scale markets, of large-scale projects and supportive policies.
FIGURE GW 9.1 UAE CUMULATIVE SOLAR PV CAPACITY, 2014-2023, BY MESIA
6
5.3
4
GW
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
SOURCE: IRENA (2024). © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

Monumental endeavours, such as the Al Dhafra Solar PV coordination are essential to address technical issues
Independent Power Producer (IPP) project, the world's such as grid stability, voltage fluctuations, and the
largest single-site solar power plant with a 2 GW capacity management of intermittent energy supply.
and 4 million bifacial solar panels, and the Mohammed bin
Moreover, attracting and fostering foreign investment and
Rashid Al Maktoum (MBR) Solar Park in Dubai, with a
international partnerships is vital for achieving the UAE's
planned 5 GW capacity, position the UAE as a global leader
ambitious target of generating 70% of its electricity from
in solar energy production. These projects are expected
renewables for 2050. Continuous innovation, cost
to generate enough electricity to power hundreds of
optimisation, and strategic positioning will be crucial for
thousands of homes while offsetting millions of tonnes
sustained success in this evolving landscape.
of carbon emissions annually. Simultaneously, the UAE
has promoted distributed and rooftop installations
through initiatives like the Shams Dubai Solar Program, a
net-metering scheme facilitating over 5,000 residential
and commercial systems with a combined 200 MW The UAE's solar PV market outlook for 2024-2028 is
capacity by 2023. The UAE has also implemented BIPV highly promising, driven by its strong commitment to
and floating solar PV projects to maximise surface renewable energy expansion. Key projects like the Al
utilisation for solar power generation and established Dhafra Solar PV Plant and the MBR Solar Park indicate
regulations to enable broader deployment of distributed significant growth potential, with around 2 GW of
systems, including rooftop installations. renewable energy installations expected annually.
Technological advancements, including bifacial modules
and potential transitions to N-type cells, promise
Challenges for the market
efficiency gains and lower LCOE post-2025. The market
The UAE's solar PV market faces multifaceted challenges is projected to grow at a CAGR of 12%, reaching 3.72
requiring strategic interventions to ensure sustainable billion kWh by 2028, fuelled by favourable policies and a
growth and development. From a regulatory standpoint, solid commitment to renewable energy. The UAE's focus
the absence of a comprehensive legal framework on human capital development and innovation further
governing distributed generation outside the Dubai strengthens its position as a global hub for sustainable
emirate has created uncertainties, hindering investment development and economic diversification.
and streamlining solar project development. Another
Authors: Tannishtha Das and Hinde Liepmannsohn,
significant challenge lies in integrating solar power into
Middle East Solar Industry Association (MESIA).
the existing grid infrastructure. Careful planning and
Al Dhafra PV2 Solar Project, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. © Hitachi Energy

different trend. It aims to create an energy mix which
10. South Korea includes an expansion of nuclear energy to at least
30% by 2030, assuming normal operation of both
Overview of PV developments existing nuclear power plants and those under
2023 was again a challenging year for the South construction. Under the government’s plan, renewable
Korean solar industry. The solar market has been in energy penetration targets will be set on the basis of
decline since 2020, when it saw over 5 GW of new actual supply conditions, whereby the optimal shares
installations. Only 2.7 GW of new solar capacity was of different electricity generation sources, such as PV
installed in 2023, and market growth is expected to and offshore wind, will be contingent on those factors.
remain difficult in the coming years. The phasing out of coal will be approached by taking
into account supply and demand conditions and the
state of the grid, and the use of carbon-free generation
National Targets for Solar PV sources will take technical conditions into account.
Previous South Korean governments have steadily Finally, the main objectives for the electricity grid will
increased their renewable energy targets. In 2017, be timely construction, grid stabilisation measures in
renewable energy targets were increased from 7% to combination with renewable energy generation,
20% for 2030 under the Implementation Plan for efficiency-oriented redesign and the establishment of
Renewable Energy 3020. In 2019, the 3rd Energy Master an advanced power system.
Plan further introduced a target of 30-35% renewable The current government has lowered the Renewable
energy for 2040. In 2020, the 9th Basic Plan for Electricity Portfolio Standard (RPS) targets from 14.5% in 2023
Supply and Demand (BPESD) further increased the target and 17% in 2024, to 13% and 13.5% in 2023 and 2024
share of renewable energy to 42% for 2034. South Korea respectively (Fig. GW 10.1). The previous 25% RPS
has transformed its energy mix to meet the needs of its target for 2026 has been delayed beyond 2030 as the
people, prioritising a clean and safe environment. renewable energy penetration targets in the 10th
However, the current government's energy policy, led BPESD have been revised downwards to 21.6% for
by President Yoon Suk-Yeol since May 2022, shows a 2030. This is 8.6% lower than the National Greenhouse
Gas Reduction Target confirmed in 2021.
PV on vehicle loading area at Hyundai Motors, Ulsan, South Korea. © Korea Solar Construction Association

FIGURE GW 10.1 SOUTH KOREA'S ANNUAL RENEWABLE PORTFOLIO STANDARDS (RPS) TARGETS 2022-2030, BY KSCA
30
25.0 25.0
25
22.5
20.5
20 19.0
17.0
RPS target (%)
17.0
14.5 15.0
15 13.5
14.0
12.5 13.0
12.5
10
0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2028 2029
Previous RPS Target (%) Revised RPS Target (%)
SOURCE: Korea Solar Construction Association. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024
While the target for renewable energy generation has required to be certified to ZEB level 5 (between 20%
been reduced, the target for nuclear power generation and 40% energy independence). In 2025, these
has been increased from 25.0% to 32.8% for 2030. This standards will be extended to the private sector. This
trend is expected to be more concretely reflected in the mandatory ZEB system is expected to be a good
11th BPESD, which is expected to be finalised in 2024, growth driver for the BIPV market.
with plans to increase the share of nuclear power. In this
context, the outlook for renewables is even more
Outlook
negative. Additionally, the current government has
drastically cut the 2024 budget for renewables, South Korea's solar installations have been declining
decreasing funds supporting several sectors, from from a peak of 5.5 GW in 2020 to 2.7 GW in 2023, and
electricity industry infrastructure to renewable energy demand is expected to stabilise in the next years in
deployment and feed-in tariff schemes. the range of 2.0 to 2.5 GW per annum. This expected
stagnation is attributable to the government’s policy
actions, such as reducing the renewable energy target
New opportunities in the BIPV market
to 21.6% for 2030, abolishing the RPS scheme,
In South Korea, a mandatory zero-energy building introducing an auction system, and capping the
scheme has been in place since 2020, which will be system marginal price at a fixed rate. In addition, while
extended to the private sector from 2024. In 2023, South Korea does not currently have an auction
public buildings of 500 m2 or more and public system in place, the government is considering
apartment buildings of 30 units or more will be introducing one for renewable energy, which could

lead to the abolition of the RPS in the future. The main South Korea's solar power generation is far from grid
reason for this is the cost of the existing RPS. parity, therefore growth will be limited to subsidy-
driven projects. Unless the cost of solar power in
South Korea heavily relies on exports to bolster its
South Korea is brought down to global levels, it will be
economy. Attaining RE100, a global initiative where
difficult to expand demand, and in the worst case,
companies commit to using 100% renewable energy
demand could stagnate below 2.0 GW. Under such
for their operations, holds crucial significance for
conditions, the Export-Import Bank of Korea projects
enhancing Korea's export competitiveness. Thanks to
that the market will remain below the 3 GW range in
this, a substantial surge in Korean companies' demand
the 2024-2030 period (see Fig. GW 10.2).
for renewable energy to meet this target is
anticipated. Nonetheless, the Korean government South Korea signed the pledge at COP28 and pledged
perceives the current cost of PV generation too high its commitment. As a result, the country agreed to
compared to other nations, and only aims to improve triple its renewable energy generation by 2030. There
it in the future. Consequently, the solar market is is also speculation that the renewable energy
currently dwindling, posing a challenge in achieving penetration target may be increased in the 11th
RE100. This discrepancy underscores a misalignment BPESD, due to be released this year. Hopefully, South
between market demand and governmental policies. Korea's solar market will grow again.
Author: Donggun Lim, Professor, Korea National
University of Transportation.
FIGURE GW 10.2 SOUTH KOREA SOLAR PV MARKET SCENARIOS 2024-2030, BY THE EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF KOREA
4
GW
0
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Historical Forecast
SOURCE: Export-Import bank of Korea. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

capacity of 1.8 GW, and there is an increasing number

11. Türkiye of cell investors. Approximately 15,000 people are
employed in solar module factories, 8,000 people in
Overview of PV development up to 2023 the sub-industry of module factories, nearly 5,000
By the end of 2023, total installed power capacity in people in the construction and aluminium sector, and
Türkiye had increased by 2,859 MW, reaching 106,668 15,000 people in the installation sector. The Turkish
MW. Out of it, 1,867 MW of new solar power plants solar PV sector currently employs between 40,000
were commissioned, bringing the total solar PV and 45,000 FTEs. Turkey's solar energy sector provides
installed capacity to over 11 GW (Licenced + employment for 150,000 people directly and 200,000
Unlicenced). Current developments regarding PV solar people indirectly.
power plants in Türkiye have expanded to different
types such as rooftop solar power plants (SPP), land National Targets for Solar PV
SPP for self-consumption, hybrid SPP and storage SPP.
PV module production in Türkiye expanded from 3 Türkiye’s National Energy Plan aims to increase solar
factories to 70 within 10 years. Existing solar module energy capacity to 52.9 GW by 2035 and, according
manufacturers have a total annual production to its 12th Development Plan, it will reach 30 GW by
capacity of 25-30 GW, two companies undertaking the end of 2028. To reach this capacity, 3.4 GW of solar
cell development activities have reached a total power needs to be added in Türkiye every year through
FIGURE GW 11.1 TÜRKIYE’S SOLAR ENERGY INSTALLED CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT AND ANNUAL CUMULATIVE
VALUES, BY GÜNDER
12,000 11,292
10,000 9,425
7,816
8,000
6,667
5,995
MW
6,000
5,063
4,000 3,421
2,000
833
40 249
0
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Installed capacity Cumulative capacity
SOURCE: GÜNDER. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

the 2024-2028 period. The 12th Development Plan facilities, alongside agricultural SPP and floating SPP
will provide incentives supporting clean energy plans. Following the climate crisis and the increase in
production and energy efficiency, green energy prices, the sales of solar energy modules
transformation of the industry, sustainable installed on the roofs of homes and workplaces broke
transportation, circular economy and green a record and increased by more than 50% in 2023.
infrastructure. The 2nd Energy Efficiency Strategy Solar power plants established for self-consumption
Document and the 2nd National Energy Efficiency are exempt from obtaining a production licence or
Action Plans, covering the years 2024-2030, plan to establishing a company, provided that they are on
maximise energy efficiency, increase the share of residential roofs, and it is now possible to generate
renewable energy and prioritise solar and wind energy extra income by selling excess electricity at the
for irrigation. Renewable energy production plants can consumer price through monthly net metering.
be established without a zoning plan in the areas of Studies are increasingly conducted to identify the
seas, dam lakes, artificial lakes and natural lakes obstacles to local initiatives in Türkiye and to increase
declared as renewable energy resource areas by the the number of renewable energy cooperatives that
Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. This have a positive impact on local development.
excludes reservoirs and wetlands providing drinking
water, as well as shores and coastlines within the
Utility-scale vs. distributed and rooftop developments
scope of the Coastal Law.
Several recent regulatory developments are
encouraging PV deployment in different rooftop,
Drivers for solar growth
distributed and utility-scale applications. The gradual
While electricity production in Türkiye increased by transition to Nearly Zero Energy Buildings (nZEB), with
36% between 2013 and 2023, the share of renewable improved energy efficiency and a portion of their
energy in electricity production increased from 29% energy provided by renewable energy sources, became
to 42%. In response to the current legislation in Türkiye mandatory on 1 January 2023. In March 2022, the
promoting electricity generation, especially from solar capacity limit for PV electricity production facilities in
energy, momentum has surged for hybrid and storage non-commercial areas such as apartments, sites,
96 MW, Hilvan, Sanliurfa, Türkiye. © Istrich Energy

mosques, farms and villas increased from 10 kW to 25 and tax incentives. As the number of licenced solar &
kW. With the regulatory amendment published in the storage projects grows and investments continue, the
issue dated 23 July 2022, the Ministry of Environment, sector's primary goal is to expand capacities to
Urbanisation, and Climate Change has introduced maintain those investment processes. One of the
flexibility regarding solar energy installations on topics that primarily affects the solar sector regards
buildings in areas without zoning plans. It has been the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
established that installations intended for self- (CBAM) Regulation adopted on 1 October 2023, in the
consumption and agricultural irrigation, covering a context of the European Green Deal. The regulation
surface area of up to 125 m², as well as rooftop SPP will enter into force on 1 January 2026. In this pilot
installations with a maximum height of 150 cm from implementation process, hydrogen, electricity, iron
ground level, are exempt from requiring a building and steel, fertiliser, cement and aluminium were
licence and usage permit. The Public and Municipality included in the scope of CBAM in the first stage.
Renewable Energy Project (KAYEP) plans to install solar
power plants on open car parks and roofs of
institutions in order to meet all or part of the electrical
energy consumption of central government buildings GÜNDER, Türkiye’s Solar Energy Association, continues
(subject to self-consumption) under suitable to provide services to ensure the proper development
conditions. According to Ember, the country’s potential of the renewable energy sector and contribute to
rooftop solar capacity is at least 120 GW, while the employment, in a world where investment strategies
annual potential for rooftop solar electricity generation for the energy transition are rapidly being developed.
is 148 TWh, corresponding to 45% of Türkiye’s total We contribute to projects that promote R&D,
electricity consumption in 2022.10 combating climate change, qualified workforce,
gender equality and energy cooperatives.
Türkiye's floating solar power potential is
GÜNDERMYM provides the opportunity to manage
approximately 80 GW. The first floating solar power
employment correctly and benefit from occupational
plant, the Kuzova Floating Solar Power Plant built on
safety at the highest level both in the country and in
Keban Dam, started to produce 1.8 GWh of electrical
the European Union within the scope of the Europass
energy annually. The aim is to expand floating solar
Certificate for National Qualifications. The
power projects throughout the country.
organisation was authorised as the examination
center of the solar energy sector on 1 March 2023.
Challenges for the market METU-GÜNAM continues to lead Türkiye in
contributing to new technologies and applications by
Stringent financial conditions delay the financing of
carrying out R&D and innovation projects through
renewable energy projects. There is a need to create a
numerous national and Horizon European projects.
structure that no longer requires appropriate financing
One of these projects, the SolarHub project, aims to
packages supported by public banks and state
strengthen the solar energy innovation ecosystems of
subsidies by pioneering the establishment of
Greece and Türkiye.
financing models such as low-interest loan models
Author: Turkish Solar Energy Association-GÜNDER.
10 Ember Climate (2023): Türkiye can expand solar by 120 GW through

rooftops.

dominating the market. The island's abundant sunshine,
12. Taiwan particularly in the southern regions, has provided a
conducive environment for solar energy development.
Solar PV Deployment in Taiwan: A Promising Path
Ahead
Drivers for solar growth
Taiwan's journey towards renewable energy,
particularly solar PV deployment, has seen remarkable In alignment with its renewable energy goals, Taiwan
progress in recent years. With growing concerns over has set ambitious targets for solar PV deployment.
climate change and energy security, Taiwan has set The government aims to reach 20 GW of installed
ambitious targets to increase its share of renewable solar capacity by 2025 and 31 GW by 2030,
energy in the power mix. accounting for 4.6% of the country's electricity
generation. Considering the 12.4 GW total capacity at
Taiwan's solar PV industry has experienced significant the end of 2023, the 2025 solar target would mean
growth over the past decade, driven by favourable installing 7.6 GW of new capacity in the next two
government policies, technological advancements, and years (see Fig. GW 12.1). Taiwan’s government had
increasing environmental awareness. In 2023, 2.7 GW of previously stated in June 2022 that the 2025 target
new capacity were added to the country’s solar operating had been extended to October 2026. Furthermore,
fleet, a 33.1% increase compared to the year before. By there are long-term aspirations to achieve a carbon-
the end of 2023, Taiwan had installed over 12.4 GW of neutral energy sector by 2050, with solar PV playing
solar PV capacity, with utility-scale installations a crucial role in this transition.
FIGURE GW 12.1 CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY OF PV IN TAIWAN 2010-2030, BY BUREAU OF ENERGY, MINISTRY
OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS
40
35
31
30
25
20
GW
20
15
12.4
10
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Historical Estimate Forecast
SOURCE: Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

Several factors have contributed to the rapid Challenges for the Market
expansion of solar PV in Taiwan. Government
Despite the significant progress, the solar PV market in
incentives, such as feed-in tariffs and tax credits, have
Taiwan faces several challenges. Grid integration issues,
stimulated investment in solar projects. Additionally,
such as intermittency and variability, pose operational
public support for renewable energy initiatives and the
challenges for utility-scale solar projects. Additionally,
declining costs of PV technology have made solar
land constraints and environmental concerns may limit
power increasingly competitive compared to
the expansion of ground-mounted installations,
traditional fossil fuels. Moreover, concerns about air
necessitating innovative solutions for space utilisation.
pollution and the desire to reduce reliance on
Furthermore, uncertainties surrounding policy support
imported energy sources have further incentivised the
and regulatory frameworks could affect investor
adoption of solar energy.
confidence and project viability in the long term.
Utility-scale vs. Distributed and Rooftop

Outlook for the Years 2024-2028
Developments
Looking ahead, the future of solar PV in Taiwan appears
Taiwan distinguishes itself from other countries by
promising. Continued advancements in technology,
predominantly using ground-mounted solar
including the development of high-efficiency solar
photovoltaic systems. Initially, the country promoted
panels and energy storage solutions, are expected to
rooftop solar photovoltaic systems through FIT
drive further cost reductions and enhance the
mechanisms. However, ground-mounted systems
competitiveness of solar energy. Moreover, ongoing
offer greater generation capacity. Government FIT
efforts to modernise the grid infrastructure and
incentives also have attracted developers to invest in
improve grid flexibility will facilitate the integration of
ground-mounted systems, which now account for
large-scale renewable energy projects. With supportive
over 35% of total installations, a significant increase
government policies and growing public awareness of
from previous years. Despite this, rooftop solar
the benefits of solar energy, Taiwan is well-positioned
photovoltaic systems, which have a smaller
to achieve its renewable energy targets and emerge as
environmental impact, continue to be strongly
a leader in the global clean energy transition.
promoted by government policies.
Authors: ShuYu Yang, PV Industrial Analyst, ITRI; Daniel
Lee, Taiwan Photovoltaic Industry Association (TPVIA).
Floating PV on the Kaohsiung Reservoir in Taiwan. © jemmy999/Shutterstock.com

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13. Saudi Arabia rate (CAGR) of 40.1% from 2023 to 2030 to reach 31.5
GW, according to GlobalData. Since 2022, the country
Saudi Arabia has achieved tremendous progress in has added 2.1 GW of renewable power capacity,
solar PV development through 2023, motivated by its marking a 300% increase from the cumulative
objective to diversify its energy mix. renewable capacity addition of 700 MW during 2012-
22. Saudi Arabia's abundant solar radiation and
Overview of PV development up to 2023 strategic focus on solar and wind power underpin its
remarkable progress in the solar PV sector.
In 2023, Saudi Arabia’s newly installed solar capacity
reached approximately 1.9 GW. Ongoing projects
under construction surpassed 8 GW by the end of National Solar PV and RE Targets
2023, with an additional 13 GW in the development Saudi Arabia has set ambitious national targets for
pipeline. Notable initiatives include a 52 MW rooftop solar PV development from 2024 to 2028 under its
PV project portfolio. In terms of cumulative capacity, National Renewable Energy Program (NREP). The
the solar fleet reached 2.2 GW by the end of 2023, Renewable Energy Project Development Office
according to IRENA (see Fig. GW 13.1). (REPDO) aims to increase local content requirements
Between 2015 and 2023, Saudi Arabia’s renewable (percentage of materials, labour, services, and other
power capacity surged from 0.02 GW to 3 GW, with inputs sourced from within the country) for PV
solar PV accounting for 82.6% of the total in 2023. projects from 17-19% to 33-35% by 2024-25 and 40-
Under the current market projections, it is accelerating 45% by 2028 and beyond. Saudi Arabia targets 58.7
the growth of its renewable energy capacity and is GW of renewable energy generation for 2030, with a
FIGURE GW 13.1 SAUDI ARABIA CUMULATIVE SOLAR PV CAPACITY 2014-2023, BY MESIA
2.5
2.2
2.0
1.5
GW
1.0
0.5
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
SOURCE: IRENA (2024). © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

staggering 40 GW coming from solar PV, reflecting its with a greater focus on utility-scale projects. On the
strategy to develop a local renewable manufacturing utility-scale front, the country updated its Renewable
ecosystem. These ambitious targets, coupled with Energy and Energy Efficiency Development Plan in Q4
Saudi Arabia's abundant solar radiation, position solar 2019, aiming to install 5.6 GW of utility-scale solar PV by
PV as a primary focus in its drive to diversify energy 2030 to diversify the electricity generation mix.
sources and ensure long-term supply security. Regarding distributed and rooftop developments, the
Saudi NREP targeted 9.5 GW of installed renewable
energy capacity by 2023. This target, however, has been
Drivers for Solar Growth
largely underachieved, with residential rooftop
Saudi Arabia's solar growth from 2024 to 2028 is developments not being largely economically viable for
propelled by abundant solar resources, with irradiation households in Riyadh based on the current electricity
levels ranging between 2,000 and 2,500 kWh/m²/year, tariffs. It is estimated that the aggregate residential solar
making solar energy economically attractive. power capacity stands at around 400 MW in the capital,
Supportive government policies like the NREP aim to Riyadh. While utility-scale developments took
decrease dependency on fossil fuels, with targets set precedence, Saudi Arabia made progress on both fronts
to increase renewable energy's share in the total energy in 2023, aligning with its strategy to maximise economic
mix. Declining solar module prices and versatile benefits from the remaining hydrocarbon reserves while
applications offer lucrative investment opportunities, expanding renewable power capacity domestically.
supported by net-metering regulations incentives for
private sector investment. Various procurement
Challenges for the market
mechanisms, including competitive auctions and
state-owned projects, are accelerating solar expansion. The solar PV market in Saudi Arabia faces several critical
challenges to its sustainable growth that must be
addressed. Firstly, grid integration and stability become
Utility-scale vs. distributed and rooftop developments
increasingly difficult as the share of intermittent solar PV
In 2023, Saudi Arabia made significant strides in utility- increases in the energy mix. Secondly, large-scale solar
scale and distributed rooftop solar developments, albeit projects require significant land resources, which can lead
© Sakaka Solar Energy Co.

to land use conflicts. Additionally, solar panel production Arabia renewable energy market size reached
and maintenance can consume substantial amounts of approximately 1.5 GW in 2023. Looking forward,
water, a scarce resource in the region. Moreover, despite IMARC Group expects the market to reach 29.1 GW by
Saudi Arabia's solid industrial infrastructure, solar PV 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 38.97% during 2024-2032.
manufacturing is still in its infancy. As there is no local solar
This growth will be fuelled by several factors, including
value chain, the country is largely reliant on the import of
increasing government initiatives to support solar
modules, inverters and BOS components from abroad.
energy adoption through monetary incentives,
Finally, the market is experiencing a transformative
subsidies, and promoting solar rooftops. Moreover,
impact from ongoing technological advancements and
Saudi Arabia's latest solar tender saw significant
the continual reduction in the cost of solar technology,
increases in bid prices due to rising PV equipment
which needs to be effectively managed. Addressing these
costs, with the lowest bid at 0.05563 SAR/MWh
challenges through innovative solutions and strategic
(0.01366 EUR/MWh), a 43% increase from the
planning is crucial for the sustainable growth of the solar
previous record. Despite the recent challenges, Saudi
PV market in Saudi Arabia.
Arabia's NREP and its 40 GW solar PV capacity target
for 2030 will continue to create significant
Outlook for the years 2024-2028 opportunities for the market.
The outlook for the PV market in Saudi Arabia from Authors: Tannishtha Das and Hinde Liepmannsohn,
2024 to 2028 appears highly promising. The Saudi Middle East Solar Industry Association (MESIA).
CREATING TOMORROW’S SOLUTIONS
BEFORE THERE IS A SOLAR PANEL –

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the grid in 2023, the greatest since 2011 (see Fig. GW
14. United 14.1). Around 13,000 sub-50 kW installations are being
made each month now, according to data from the
Kingdom Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS). 2023
set a post-subsidy record for smaller-scale PV
Overview of PV developments installations below 50 kW.
2023 was an extraordinary year for solar energy in the At utility scale, EDF’s 500 MW Longfield project, which
UK. According to official figures, 15.7 GW of once built will be the largest solar farm in the country,
cumulative solar capacity was in place at the end of secured consent from the government in June 2023.
the year. However, the industry considers this to be a
significant underestimate, with Solar Media Ltd
suggesting that the figure was 17.6 GW, up 1.7 GW on National Targets for solar PV
2022. The difference is largely due to underestimating
The government targets 70 GW of solar capacity for
the burgeoning commercial-scale rooftop market,
2035. How this will be achieved is the subject of the joint
which is hardly accounted for in official statistics.
Government and industry Solar Taskforce, which was
The combination of high gas prices, the need for established in May 2023 was co-chaired by Solar Energy
energy security and the response to climate change UK chief executive Chris Hewett and two ministers,
saw 190,000 smaller-scale installations connect to Graham Stuart MP and latterly Andrew Bowie MP.
FIGURE GW 14.1 YEARLY INSTALLATIONS BELOW 50 kW 2009-2023, BY MCS
250 1,600
1,400
200
1,200
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Yearly capacity (MW)
1,000
150
800
100
600
400
50
200
0 0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Yearly installed capacity Cumulative installed capacity
SOURCE: MCS. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

Its five key themes will be grid access, In November, ‘full expensing’ was made permanent,
communications, rooftop, skills development and the allowing companies to deduct the cost of PV and
supply chain. Both Ministers have given the solar and energy storage from their profits before paying
energy storage sector much support – a marked corporation tax.
change in attitude from the brief premiership of Liz
Perhaps most critically, the government has
Truss. At the time of writing, however, the Solar
acknowledged the paramount importance of
Roadmap remains to be published, as the general
resolving long delays in connecting renewable energy
election has led to its postponement. It will
projects to the grid. In November, Chancellor of the
presumably be revised under the new government.
Exchequer Jeremy Hunt agreed to implement almost
In contrast with the current government target, the every measure outlined in the independent Winser
opposition Labour Party has targeted 50 GW of solar Review of the UK’s power networks, intended to
capacity for 2030, which is slightly more ambitious in secure billions of pounds of investment and deliver
terms of growth than the 2035 goal and is clean, green and cheap energy. The chancellor also
significantly above above the current market announced an exemption from the Electricity
trajectory. Solar Energy UK’s manifesto backs the Generator Levy, introduced in the wake of the energy
same 50 GW goal, plus 30 GW of energy storage. price crisis, for new renewable energy projects.
Drivers for solar growth Challenges for the market

2023 saw significant policy announcements, But there are headwinds, with some Conservative MPs
including the designation of solar farms of 50 MW or opposed to the use of agricultural land and some parts
more as ‘critical national priority’ infrastructure. of the media taking an increasingly strident tone
Following SEUK lobbying, the government also against solar farms. Approvals for solar farms over 50
rectified an anomaly concerning residential battery MW are also being delayed.
energy storage systems: tax-free when installed
alongside a new PV system, VAT still applied when
retrofitted to an existing one.
9 MW Emberton solar farm, Buckinghamshire, United Kingdom. © Hollie Blaydes

To address local community concerns about large- activities with the insurance sector improved the
scale solar’s biodiversity impacts, in the spring of RC62 document, so that the commercial PV rooftop
2023, Solar Energy UK released its first biodiversity technology and practice changes are properly
monitoring report, followed by a second in March reflected in the requirements placed on commercial
2024. Solar Habitat 2024 demonstrates that solar property with solar.
farms can be havens for wildlife, with brown hares and
skylarks – considered vulnerable species in the UK –
Outlook for 2024
among the most common species.
Looking forward, the pipeline of new solar farms and
In the area of supply chain sustainability and
battery storage projects has grown exponentially. By
transparency, Solar Energy UK is proud to collaborate
the end of the year, 13 GW of solar farm capacity had
with SolarPower Europe to implement the Solar
received planning permission, with 1.7 GW under
Stewardship Initiative, intended to ensure high
construction. Over 23 GW of battery energy storage
standards of supply chain transparency across
systems were either in construction or had been
Europe. In parallel, the promotion of high installation
approved. We expect that 2024 should be a record
standards and consumer protection has been
year for both sectors.
enhanced through a partnership with MCS, while joint
Author: Gareth Simkins, Senior Communications
Adviser, Solar Energy UK.
Residential solar, South Croydo, London, UK. © Gareth Simkins

In terms of distributed generation, Chilean regulation

15. Chile distinguishes between two categories:
Chile commissioned its first 1 MW on-grid PV power • Medium Size Distributed Generation (MSDG):
plant in 2013. By the end of 2023, the installed capacity facilities between 300 kW and 9 MW connected to
of PV technology has risen dramatically to reach 9 GW, medium voltage distribution feeders
out of the country's 33 GW total electrical capacity. • Rooftop: facilities below 300 kW of installed
Solar energy now accounts for 27% of the total installed capacity
capacity, up from 17% in 2022, and stands as the first
source of electricity generation in Chile, producing 17.7 In 2023, medium-scale distributed generation (MSDG)
TWh. In 2023, almost 2 GW of solar power capacity was constituted 2.9 GW of the total operating capacity,
installed, with an additional 4.8 GW currently under whereas rooftop installations accounted for 220 MW.
construction. Figure GW 15.1 shows the evolution of the
total installed PV capacity over the past decade.
FIGURE GW 15.1 CUMULATIVE SOLAR CAPACITY 2013-2023, BY ACESOL
10
9 8.7
7 6.8
6
GW
5 4.8
4
3.4
3 2.8
2.4
2 1.9
1.1
1 0.5
0.01 0.2
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
NOTE: Totals include large-scale, net billing and MSDG capacity.

SOURCE: ACESOL. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

The installed solar capacity by region, arranged from To solve the congestion problem, at least partially, the
north to south (left to right), is displayed in Figure GW Ministry of Energy presented the Energy Transition Bill
15.2. Most utility-scale projects are located in the to Congress in 2023. This bill aims to promote
sunnier northern part of the country. In contrast, installing battery storage systems and introduce
medium-scale distributed generation (MSDG) significant modifications to the transmission
facilities are predominantly located near the major expansion process. This bill is expected to be
cities in the central region. This distribution has led to approved during the first term of 2024.
worsening congestion on transmission lines, a
problem that has seen a significant increase in 2023.
FIGURE GW 15.2 GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF SOLAR INSTALLED CAPACITY IN CHILE, BY ACESOL
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
MW
1,500
1,000
500
MSDG
0 Large scale
Metropolitana
Valparaíso
Coquimbo
Tarapacá
Ñuble
Biobío
Atacama
O’Higgins
Maule
Arica
Araucanía
Los Ríos
Los Lagos
Aysén
Magallanes
Antofagasta

In 2013, Chile implemented a net-billing scheme to maintain its critical role throughout this transition.
promote rooftop installations. Figure GW 15.3 shows However, achieving this objective entails addressing
the evolution of rooftop installations over the last three prominent challenges. Firstly, there's a need for
decade. Although the number of installations has a significant revision of the wholesale energy market
increased, the 220 MW of cumulative installed capacity to encourage the efficient adoption of renewable
remains a limited volume compared to Chile’s potential. energy technologies and energy storage solutions.
This is primarily due to ongoing regulatory barriers Secondly, a large expansion of the transmission
within the electric distribution segment. infrastructure is necessary to accommodate new
solar capacity. Lastly, a substantial overhaul of the
Chile is dedicated to diminishing its reliance on fossil
distribution sector is imperative to unleash the
fuels and swiftly transitioning to a fully renewable
potential for decentralised power generation and
energy portfolio, aiming for 100% renewable sources
rooftop installations across the country.
as fast as possible. Solar energy is anticipated to
Author: David Rau, Vice President of the Asociación
Chilena de Energía Solar (ACESOL)
FIGURE GW 15.3 CUMULATIVE ROOFTOP CAPACITY 2015-2023, BY ACESOL
250
222.3
200
161.9
150
MW
107.9
100
73.5
50 42.0
21.2
11.5
1.0 4.9
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Utility-scale PV contributed 945 MW of added
16. Mexico capacity in 2023, a significant increase from 2022
(580 MW), although less than in the previous three
years (0.99 GW in 2021, 1.5 GW in 2020, 1.77 GW in
Overview of PV developments 2019). In contrast, distributed solar PV reached a new
In 2023, the Mexican solar PV market installed 1.67 record of 728 MW, 22% more than in 2022 (596 MW),
GW, a 42% increase compared to the 1.18 GW added 53% more than 2021 (476 MW), and higher than 2020
in 2022, 14% more than the 1.47 GW added in 2021, and 2019 (516 MW and 335 MW respectively).
and 17% less than the 2.02 GW installed in 2020. Total Looking at the whole electricity system, utility-scale
capacity operating in the country reached 11 GW, PV capacity represents 8.5% of total installed capacity
which constitutes 18% growth from 2022. This is (90.1 GW), while 63% of installations belong to fossil-
about 18 times the installed capacity in 2017 (0.62 fuel based technologies. In terms of power generation,
GW). Out of the total installed capacity, utility-scale PV fossil-fuel based technologies provided 77%, an
represents 70% (7.66 GW) and distributed solar PV increase compared to 2022 (74%). Meanwhile, solar
30% (3.34 GW). PV showed a slight increase in 2023, contributing to
5.3% of power generation, compared to 4.9% in 2022
and 5.3% in 2021.
FIGURE GW 16.1 MEXICO TOTAL SOLAR PV CAPACITY 2012-2023, BY ASOLMEX
12,000
11,003
10,000 9,330 3,339
8,154
8,000
6,719 2,611
2,015
6,688
7,664
1,539
MW
6,000
6,139
4,669
5,149
4,000 1,023
3,646
2,566
2,000 688
1,878
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Utility-scale PV Distributed solar PV
SOURCE: ASOLMEX. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

Renewable energy and solar PV targets and hindered new private investment in renewable
energy. These changes included cancelling long-term
Before 2013, electricity supply in Mexico was carried
energy auctions and stalling the progress of the CEC
out under a vertically integrated monopoly scheme,
mechanism. Consequently, Mexico failed to achieve
operated and owned by the State through the Federal
its clean energy target for 2021 and is not expected to
Electricity Commission (CFE). After the energy reform
reach the 2024 target either. By 2024, the share of
of 2013, which included the unbundling and
clean energy could drop below 23%, far from the 35%
restructuring of CFE, a competitive electricity market
established in the LTE.
was introduced for generation and supply as well as
open access to transmission and distribution grids. At COP27 in November 2022, Mexico announced an
updated nationally determined contribution (NDC)
In 2015, the Energy Transition Act (LTE) established
target, aiming for a 35% reduction in greenhouse gas
clean energy goals in electricity generation: 25% for
emissions by 2030, up from the previous goal of 22%.
2018, 30% for 2021, and 35% for 2024. To promote
Studies indicate that Mexico would need to add at
investment in renewable energy, two main
least 30 GW of new renewable energy capacity to
mechanisms were implemented: Clean Energy
achieve this updated NDC, comprising 20 GW of
Certificates (CEC) and long-term energy auctions held
utility-scale PV and 10 GW of wind.
annually by the Independent System Operator (ISO),
which secured nearly 4.67 GW of utility-scale PV One year later in November 2023, at COP28, Mexico
capacity between 2015 and 2017, with almost 90% of joined the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency
it starting operation before the end of 2023. Pledge, which aims to triple the world’s installed
renewable energy generation capacity to at least
Since December 2018, energy policy changes aimed
11,000 GW by 2030.
at favouring CFE have resulted in regulatory paralysis
60.8 MW, Aguascalientes, Mexico. © Canadian Solar

Challenges energy storage systems for new projects to address
the variability of renewable energy. However, the
Despite multiple announcements by Mexico regarding
concept of variability is not clearly defined, and thus
its commitment to the global renewable agenda, the
the requirements will depend on the ISO’s discretion.
path Mexico will take towards 2030 remains
Considering the limited operational flexibility of
uncertain. While it is necessary to significantly
Mexico's electrical system, it appears that the
increase investments in new renewable generation
regulation should encompass all the services that
capacity, the urgency for the expansion and
energy storage could provide and establish
modernisation of transmission networks is even
remuneration mechanisms to incentivise
greater. In 2017, network failures or lack of
investments in these technologies.
transmission infrastructure explained 47% of all
Energy Emergency Alerts. By 2022, these same
conditions accounted for 97% of those alerts. Outlook
Decentralised energy solutions, such as distributed Mexico not only needs more clean energy to meet the
solar PV, self-supply projects, microgrids, and battery expected growth in demand but also to seize the
energy storage, are expected to become the primary historic opportunity presented by the process of
alternative to increase the supply of clean energy supply chain relocation, known as nearshoring, in the
since expanding transmission capacity will require coming years. In order to foster new investment in the
several years. sector, long-term stability of regulations, transparency
in permitting process management and technical
A new regulation regarding energy storage is currently
operation, as well as continuous dialogue between
being discussed. This proposal primarily focuses on
authorities and sector participants, are essential.
empowering the ISO to mandate the integration of
Author: Nelson R. Delgado Contreras, Director General,
Mexican Association of Solar Energy (Asolmex).
820 MW Villanueva solar park, Viesca, Coahuila, Mexico. © Kino Energía

In September 2023, the parliament passed a revision

17. Switzerland of the Energy Act, setting a much more ambitious
target. By 2035, the goal is to generate 35 TWh of
electricity from renewable sources excluding
PV development up to 2023 hydropower, almost tripling the existing target. Of this,
In 2023, solar PV experienced its fourth consecutive approximately 30 TWh is expected to be generated
year of market growth exceeding 40%. According to from solar power. Additionally, a target of 45 TWh of
Swissolar’s estimates, new installations in 2023 non-hydro RES has been set for 2050. This increase in
exceeded 1.5 GW and solar power production was renewables aims to compensate for the loss of
around 5 TWh or 9% of total electricity consumption. nuclear power, estimated at around 23 TWh annually
The main trigger for this boom was the Energy Act, from the four reactors still in operation, and to meet
which came into force in 2018 and created a reliable the rising demand for electricity due to
framework for the expansion of renewable energies decarbonisation efforts. There will be a public vote on
after years of uncertainty. this law via referendum on June 9, 2024.
National targets Drivers for solar growth
Switzerland does not yet have any binding targets for Since 2018, a nationwide investment subsidy has
the expansion of solar PV. The current Energy Act sets been in place, covering approximately 20% of the
a target of 11.4 TWh of annual electricity production costs for PV installations, contingent on their size. The
from renewable energies (excluding hydropower) for subsidy is nearly double for systems without self-
the year 2035, which corresponds to around 20% of consumption. The reason for this is that since a
the current consumption. To date, hydropower has substantial share of self-consumption was the only
played a decisive role in electricity supply, annually way to economically operate a PV installation, roofs
producing around 40 TWh. This contribution is on buildings with low or no power consumption were
currently increasing significantly due to the rapid not used to deploy PV. With the new subsidy scheme,
melting of glaciers. these buildings are now being used. For systems of
Façade PV in the Swiss alps, Switzerland. © 3S Swiss Solar Systems

150 kW or larger, an auction system is in place. Utility-scale vs. distributed and rooftop developments
Additionally, in 2018, self-consumption communities
In Switzerland, solar systems have predominantly
were introduced as a mechanism to facilitate the sale
been installed on buildings, with approximately 14% of
of solar power to neighbours through private lines. This
the capacity integrated into the buildings (BIPV).
initiative fosters demand in emerging residential
Residential and commercial sectors each contribute
areas. Like in many other European countries, the
roughly half of the installed capacity. An urgent
conflict in Ukraine also resulted in a significant hike in
parliamentary resolution adopted in 2022 opened the
electricity prices, sparking a surge in solar installations,
door to constructing large-scale solar plants in the
especially on industrial and commercial rooftops.
Alps, potentially increasing winter production.
Often, these systems are operated through on-site
However, significant challenges exist in implementing
PPAs, ensuring a substantial portion of self-
these projects, and it remains uncertain how many
consumption. By contrast, off-site PPAs have seen
plants will be constructed by 2025 – which is the legal
limited adoption in Switzerland thus far. Lastly, an
deadline for those projects.
important catalyst to solar growth is the requirement
for new buildings in most Swiss cantons to self-
generate the electricity they consume.
FIGURE GW 17.1 ANNUAL PV MARKET SEGMENTATION IN SWITZERLAND, 2013-2022, BY SWISSOLAR
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
MW
800
600
400
200
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Single house Multi-family homes Industry, crafts Agriculture

Services Public sector Transport Forecast
SOURCE: Swissolar. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

Challenges for the market be reinforced, which is also associated with lengthy
authorisation procedures.
The shortage of skilled labour in the Swiss
construction industry presents a significant challenge There is a growing need for clarification with building
for the solar sector. Despite these obstacles, the insurers. Due to recent extreme hail events
industry has managed to navigate through substantial heightened requirements for module hail resistance
market growth. However, meeting the demands of this are being discussed. The rise in facade systems, which
growth requires a considerable increase in specialised can significantly contribute to winter power supply,
workforce. To address this, Swissolar will introduce 2- has brought fire protection concerns to the forefront.
year and 3-year apprenticeship programs for solar A joint document by Swissolar and insurance
installers starting from August 2024. Additionally, the companies offers initial clarification, but standardised
association offers various further training courses for fire tests will be necessary moving forward.
career changers.
Currently, there is no standardised regulation for grid-
The authorisation process for solar installations fed electricity prices. Purchase prices vary widely
remains restrictive in many cases, particularly in among the approximately 630 distribution grid
protected town centres. Agri-PV projects are only operators. With the new Electricity Act, these prices
permitted if they enhance agricultural crops, and will be tied to quarterly average electricity market
planned large-scale Alpine plants have faced prices, posing uncertainties for PV system operators
opposition from environmental organisations. Those due to anticipated low summer electricity prices.
large-scale plants usually also require power lines to
© Swissolar

Outlook for the years 2024-2028 grid at a local level at a reduced tariff, promoting the
alignment of production and solar power generation
In 2024, solar power is projected to meet over 10% of
and minimising unnecessary grid expansions.
Switzerland's electricity needs. The future trajectory
Electromobility plays a pivotal role in this context,
hinges significantly on the outcome of the
serving as an intermediate storage solution via
referendum on the new renewables target on 9th June
bidirectional charging. Additionally, heat pumps,
2024. A favourable vote could pave the way for an
currently the predominant heating system in
annual expansion of over 2 GW, facilitating the
Switzerland for new constructions and heating
attainment of the targets outlined in the new Energy
replacements, further bolster the utilisation of
Act. A key catalyst is the proposed regulation to
photovoltaics.
incentivise self-consumption, particularly through
‘local electricity communities’ modelled after Austria. Author: David Stickelberger, Deputy Managing
These communities can leverage the public electricity Director, Swissolar.
FIGURE GW 17.2 ANNUAL SOLAR PV MARKET IN SWITZERLAND, BY SWISSOLAR
25,000 3,000
2,500
20,000
2,000
15,000
GWh/y
MW
1,500
10,000
1,000
5,000
500
0 0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Low Scenario Annual production high

High Scenario Annual production low
Historical
SOURCE: Swissolar. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

Pakistan has witnessed a remarkable expansion in

18. Pakistan distributed grid-connected solar capacity. By the end of
2023, an additional 0.76 GW of distributed on-grid solar
capacity was added under the national net-metering
Overview of PV Developments in Pakistan scheme, almost doubling the cumulative distributed
Pakistan's journey towards solar energy development installed capacity, and reinforcing the country's path
has been marked by remarkable progress, positioning towards large-scale solar adoption (see Fig. GW 18.1).
the country as a significant player in the global Looking ahead, Pakistan aims to integrate another 14
renewable energy sector, demonstrating substantial GW of solar and wind capacity into the grid over the
growth since 2021 and highlighting the nation's next decade, according to the Alternative Energy
commitment to clean energy sources. According to Development Board (AEDB). These ambitious targets
industry experts, in 2022, 2.8 GW of PV modules were underscore Pakistan's determination to leverage its
imported into Pakistan. In 2023, about 5 GW of modules abundant solar potential to meet growing energy
were imported, in spite of import controls. For 2024, the demands sustainably.
prediction is for up to 12 GW of PV modules import.
FIGURE GW 18.1 YEARLY AND CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY UNDER NET-METERING SCHEME, BY PSA
900 1,800
800 1,600
700 1,400
Cumulative capacity (MW)

Yearly capacity (MW)
600 1,200
500 1,000
400 800
300 600
200 400
100 200
0 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Yearly installed capacity Cumulative installed capacity
SOURCE: PPIB. © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

While utility-scale installations continue to dominate Drivers to solar growth
Pakistan's solar landscape, there has been a notable
With approximately 25% of the population still lacking
shift towards decentralised rooftop solar systems. The
access to the grid, Pakistan possesses vast untapped
growing adoption of rooftop solar, particularly in urban
solar potential. The country, with a young population
areas, reflects consumers' desire for energy
exceeding 230 million, recognises solar energy as a
independence and resilience, as well as efforts to
crucial solution to address its energy needs. The active
mitigate rising electricity prices.
involvement of the vibrant private sector, particularly
Today, renewable energy sources currently contribute in rural areas where grid access is limited, is evident in
a mere 5% of Pakistan's electricity generation mix, deploying solar solutions. Initiatives targeting
with off-grid renewables playing a negligible role in solarisation of tube wells and rural electrification
overall energy consumption. Despite this, local projects are gaining traction, unlocking opportunities
discussions often minimise Pakistan's obligation to for decentralised energy generation and distribution.
shift towards renewables, citing the country's
To catalyse solar growth, the Pakistani government has
relatively low greenhouse gas emissions. However,
implemented various policy measures and initiatives. The
such viewpoints overlook the critical imperative for
establishment of regulatory bodies like the AEDB and the
Pakistan to embrace renewable energy sources.
National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority
FIGURE GW 18.2 YEARLY AND TOTAL COMMISSIONED SYSTEMS UNDER NET-METERING SCHEME, BY PSA
60 120
50 100
Yearly systems (thousands)
40 80 Total systems (thousands)
30 60
20 40
10 20
0 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Yearly commissioned systems Total commissioned systems
SOURCE: Pakistan Solar Association (PSA). © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

(NEECA) underscores the government's commitment to resilience. Moreover, solar initiatives support ongoing
promoting renewable energy. The net-metering scheme electrification efforts, extending access to reliable
introduced in 2015 and other incentive programmes, electricity to underserved communities. Concerns
such as subsidised financing through a Long-Term about climate change further underscore the urgency
Financing Facility by the State Bank of Pakistan, and of transitioning to renewable energy, with solar serving
Government Building Solarisation schemes launched as a key tool in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.
across various government departments, have
Amid increasing demand due to rising power bills, the
encouraged solar adoption among households and
prices of PV modules in Pakistan have sharply declined
businesses. Additionally, the development of large-scale
in recent times, increasing solar cost-competitiveness
solar projects, exemplified by the 100 MW Quaid-e-Azam
and affordability. According to distributors, the already
Solar Park in Bahawalpur, highlights the government's
record-low prices have further decreased by 30%
efforts to facilitate utility-scale solar deployment.
since Q4 2023, with modules of different brands
Solar energy plays a pivotal role in addressing Pakistan's available at under 13 EUR cent per Watt, a significant
energy challenges, including frequent blackouts and decline compared to above 26 EUR cent per Watt in
heavy reliance on fossil fuels. By diversifying the energy 2022. This trend is expected to continue, facilitating
mix, solar contributes to enhanced energy security and wider adoption of solar energy in Pakistan.
500 kW, Chand Bagh School, Punjab, Pakistan. © Hadron Solar

Challenges to Solar and Renewable growth investment in clean energy infrastructure and drive
sustainable energy transitions. Pakistan must prioritise
Pakistan faces several obstacles hindering widespread
renewable energy development as a cornerstone of its
adoption of renewables:
sustainable development agenda. By addressing
• Political and economic instability dissuades foreign barriers to adoption and leveraging fiscal policies
investment, exacerbating financial constraints and effectively, Pakistan can accelerate its transition
making renewable energy projects scarce and costly. towards a greener, more resilient energy future.
• Lack of regulatory clarity regarding the integration The government's response to the growing demand
of renewables into the evolving energy market for solar energy has been mixed. While there are plans
plans by the National Electric Power Regulatory to decrease the rate of solar power exported to the
Authority (NEPRA). national grid, reports of imposing a fixed tax on solar
electricity have been dismissed as baseless. However,
• Existing long-term energy procurement contracts
the prevailing system of solar net metering is being
with conventional non-RE generation undermine
scrutinised, with concerns about its impact on the
incentives for transitioning to renewables due to
sector's investment dynamics. Overall, a
the structure of the contracts with capacity
comprehensive review process involving input from
charges upon non-usage.
market experts and stakeholders is essential to ensure
• Fiscal constraints due to subsidies on non- sustainable growth in the solar energy sector.
renewable sources limit the government's capacity
In conclusion, Pakistan's solar energy landscape
to invest in renewables.
presents immense opportunities for growth and
To overcome these challenges, fiscal policies and development. With the right policies, investments, and
incentives play a pivotal role. Broader stakeholder regulatory frameworks in place, Pakistan can
engagement is needed to identify specific actions that accelerate its transition towards a sustainable energy
can facilitate the adoption of renewables. Measures future while reaping the economic and environmental
such as tax incentives, subsidies for renewable energy benefits of solar energy adoption.
projects, and regulatory reforms can incentivise
Author: Waqas Moosa, Pakistan Solar Association (PSA).

146 © FluxSolar
Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024-2028
www.solarpowereurope.org
SolarPower Europe - Leading the Energy Transition

Rond-Point Robert Schuman 2-4, 1040 Brussels, Belgium
T +32 2 709 55 20 / F +32 2 725 32 50
[email protected] / www.solarpowereurope.org
ISBN NUMBER 9789464669169

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Global Market

Welcome to the Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2024-2028.

Project Lead: Michael Schmela, SolarPower Europe.

Design: Onehemisphere AB, Sweden. [email protected]

4 Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024-2028

Visit www.solaranywhere.com to learn more and start a trial of

Solar Resource Real-Time Monitoring & Irradiance &

Integrate nowcast solar data to achieve operational excellence

300 MW fishery-solar plant, Shandong, China. © Huawei

FIGURE 1 NET RENEWABLE POWER GENERATING CAPACITY INSTALLED IN 2023

Other RE: 1 GW, 0.2%

Wind: 117 GW, 20%

Solar: 447 GW, 78%

6 Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024-2028

FIGURE 2 ANNUAL SOLAR PV INSTALLED CAPACITY 2000-2023

Europe AMER APAC China MEA

© SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024-2028 7

FIGURE 3 TOP 10 SOLAR PV MARKETS, 2022-2023

© SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

8 Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024-2028

FIGURE 4 WORLD ANNUAL SOLAR PV MARKET SCENARIOS 2024-2028

Historical data Low Scenario Medium Scenario High Scenario

Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024-2028 9

FIGURE 5 WORLD CUMULATIVE SOLAR PV MARKET SCENARIOS 2024-2028

Historical data Low Scenario Medium Scenario High Scenario

© SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

10 Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024-2028

FIGURE 6 NET RENEWABLE POWER GENERATING CAPACITY INSTALLED IN 2023

Other RE: 1 GW, 0.2%

Wind: 117 GW, 20%

Solar: 447 GW, 78%

12 Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024-2028

FIGURE 7 SOLAR AND RENEWABLE POWER AS A SHARE OF GLOBAL POWER 2018-2023

Solar Other RE Non-RE

SOURCE: Ember (2024). © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024-2028 13

FIGURE 8 ELECTRICITY GENERATION GROWTH RATE FROM 2021 TO 2022, BY TECHNOLOGY

Other renewables 0.0%

Other fossil -7.5%

SOURCE: Ember (2024). © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

1 IEA (2024): Clean energy is boosting economic growth.

14 Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024-2028

2 IEA (2024): Advancing Clean Technology Manufacturing.

Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024-2028 15

Regularly assess (under)performance

Identify unexpected underperformance Reduce time spent preparing reports

See sample reports at:

FIGURE 10 ANNUAL SOLAR PV INSTALLED CAPACITY 2000-2023

Europe AMER APAC China MEA

Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024 - 2028 17

© SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

18 Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024-2028

FIGURE 12 TOP 10 SOLAR PV MARKETS 2023

United States Brazil

Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024-2028 19

FIGURE 13 TOP 10 SOLAR PV MARKETS 2022-2023

© SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2024

20 Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2024-2028