Setting the scene

1.1 The climate policy context of the Adaptation Gap Report 2022
The world is experiencing an unprecedented climate crisis that threatens to result in catastrophic outcomes at local to global scales,
affecting key dimensions of human life and hindering the provision of global public goods, including peace and security, food
security, health, sustainable energy supply and economic stability (IPCC 2022). This increases the fragility of the most vulnerable
communities and limits their ability to adapt in a context of insufficient mitigation action (UNEP 2021a; IPCC 2022).

In light of the growing recognition of the magnitude of the threat to our society, adaptation has gained increasing prominence as a
global challenge with local, subnational, national, regional and global dimensions (article 7.2 of the Paris Agreement). It is now a
core topic on domestic and international political agendas and is recognized as being of equal importance to climate change
mitigation (Khan and Munira 2021).

In the context of the UNFCCC process, the Glasgow Climate Pact for instance, which was adopted at COP 26 in 2021, stresses the
urgency of enhancing ambition of action and finance in terms of both mitigation and adaptation to address the gaps in implementing
the long-term global goals. Hence, the outcomes of COP 26 include the delayed launch of the two-year Glasgow–Sharm el-Sheikh
work programme on the global goal on adaptation; the urgent call for developed countries to collectively at least double adaptation
finance compared with 2019 levels by 2025; the establishment of the Santiago Network and the Glasgow Dialogue to address loss
and damage; and the recognition of advances in the submission of adaptation communications (46 by August 2022) and national
adaptation plans (NAPs) (UNFCCC 2022) as central instruments to communicate progress in adaptation actions and pledges
towards the first global stocktake.

The global stocktake will take centre stage in 2023, providing an overview of what has been achieved in terms of adaptation action
and support, and coinciding with the completion of the work programme on the global goal on adaptation. To that end, assessing,
measuring and tracking progress on adaptation – at all levels – is of paramount importance but is underdeveloped (Schipper and
Langston 2015; Berrang-Ford et al. 2017; UNEP 2017; Brooks et al. 2019; Magnan et al. 2021a). One of the critical challenges is
for each country to build an understanding of adaptation that makes use of the national communication and other reporting
instruments to improve visibility of different efforts and actions (Beauchamp and Bueno 2021). Providing such national narratives is
considered essential to allow for the global stocktake to contextualize current interventions and plans and to review the adequacy
and effectiveness of adaptation action and support towards achieving the global goal on adaptation.

The global stocktake also entails assessing progress in averting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage, at both the
institutional and financial levels, including economic and non-economic losses. To inform its progress, and in light of the severity
and magnitude of the extreme events that have taken place recently and are having a significant

impact on vulnerable developing countries, attention is

focused on the outcomes of COP 27 which will take place

in Egypt.

Beyond the policy context of the UNFCCC, large-scale nonclimate

and compounding factors are likely to jeopardize

investments in adaptation in the short to medium term. The

war in Ukraine, for example, is putting global energy and

food security under pressure and could result in reduced

adaptation support. Besides a decrease in resilience

among populations affected by energy and food shortages,

in particular among poor people and the most vulnerable

populations, such large-scale non-climate compounding

factors could also constrain the ability to respond to other

climate hazards because finite resources are directed

elsewhere.

On the other hand, the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted

adaptation planning and disaster risk reduction financing

(UNEP 2021b), highlighted to governments the importance

of addressing compound risks through integrated risk

management approaches. Hence, lessons from the war in

Ukraine could be to quickly minimize the dependence on

fossil fuels through investments in renewable energy and

to diversify staple crops through climate-adapted species

and varieties to limit dependence on a small number of

breadbasket regions and crops.

1.2 Status of global climate risk

Understanding the extent of current and future climate risks

on ecosystems, their services and societies is critical in order

to contextualize knowledge on societal adaptation efforts.

The IPCC Working Group II Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC

WGII AR6) released this year provides a comprehensive

assessment of climate risk levels for various regions and

sectors, and against contrasting warming scenarios ranging

from +1.5°C to +4°C before pre-industrial levels, considering

that we are already at +1.1°C (IPCC 2022).

The IPCC WGII AR6 uses 'Reasons for Concern’ (RFCs) to

illustrate five types of aggregated, cross-system and globalscale

climate risks associated with:

● unique and threatened systems

● extreme weather events

● distribution of impacts

● global aggregate impacts

● and large-scale singular events

Compared to the conclusions of the previous IPCC

assessment report published in 2014, risk levels transition

from high to very high in all RFCs (only two RFCs were

regarded as very high in 2014) and at lower global warming

levels (figure 1.1) (IPCC 2014, IPCC 2022, O’Neill, van Aalst

and Ibrahim 2022). This finding aligns with recent estimates

aggregating the risk assessments developed in the 2018

and 2019 IPCC Special Reports (IPCC 2018; IPCC 2019a;

IPCC 2019b), and stating that by 2100, the global climate risk

will increase by two- to fourfold under global warming of 2°C

and 4°C respectively (Magnan et al. 2021b).

1. The trends in observed impacts and projected

risks, as well as the gradual reaching of adaptation

limits, call for global mitigation and adaptation to be

more strongly coupled. This is captured by the term

‘climate-resilient development’ used in the IPCC

WGII AR6 which describes a comprehensive climate

response that builds on both synergies and tradeoffs

between

mitigation

and

adaptation,

in

order

to

advance

sustainable

development

under

changing

climate.

Climate-resilient

development

requires

putting

people

and

ecosystems

at

the

centre,

while

recognizing
the

unequal

challenges

posed

by

climate

impacts

and

risks,

especially

in

developing

countries.

Lastly, science shows that every additional increment of

warming makes a difference, and exceeding 1.5°C could

trigger multiple tipping points that would fundamentally

alter the Earth’s climate (McKay et al. 2022). To strengthen

the evidence of basic hydrometeorological information

in support of climate impacts, particularly in small island

developing states (SIDS) and least developed countries

(LDCs), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and UNEP

2. From a global perspective, current adaptation efforts

are largely anticipated to remain incremental, meaning

that they do not sufficiently challenge the root causes

of exposure and vulnerability (IPCC 2022).

3. There is agreement among the scientific community

that the range of options for adaptation is shrinking

are investing in the Systematic Observations Financing

with increasing warming (Haasnoot, Lawrence and

Facility (SOFF) to overcome existing capacity gaps and

rapidly implement the Global Basic Observing Network (see

box 1.1).

Magnan 2021; IPCC 2022). As such, the still very high

global trajectory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

will increasingly challenge the ability of societies to

adapt in the near future.

The IPCC WGII AR6 also assessed eight representative

key risks

to describe “severe climate risks” and thereby

illustrate “dangerous interference with the climate system”

that the UNFCCC refers to in its founding document.

The findings show that some large ecosystems, such as

biodiversity hotspots, regions with food and water insecurity

(e.g. most of sub-Saharan Africa), warm water coral reefs,

and arctic environments are already experiencing extreme

and sometimes irreversible climate impacts. The IPCC WGII

AR6 also warns that widespread and substantial climate

risks will affect a growing number of systems over this

century, including large and medium-sized urban systems

in both hemispheres (Dodman et al. 2022; IPCC 2022). Such

risks are sometimes anticipated to occur well before the

end of this century and even under a low-emission scenario

aligning with the +1.5°C/+2°C temperature goals of the

Paris Agreement.

4. The scientific literature still provides little

evidence of effective risk reduction resulting from

implemented action (Berrang-Ford et al. 2021).

It therefore remains challenging to understand

whether what is implemented today will lead to

long-term benefits in terms of climate risk reduction.

Similar concerns have been raised in previous

Adaptation Gap Reports (AGRs) (e.g. UNEP 2021b)

and motivated the inclusion of a chapter dedicated to

effectiveness in this edition (chapter 5). As a result,

the risk of maladaptation from current adaptation

efforts should not be underestimated (UNEP 2019;

IPCC 2022).

The assessment of adaptation efforts by the IPCC WGII AR6

also provides evidence that adaptation is taking place in all

regions and sectors (Berrang-Ford et al. 2021; IPCC 2022)

and predominantly addresses water-, food- and povertyrelated

issues.

The

vast

majority

of

these

responses

are

taking

place

at

the

local

level

(e.g.

individuals,

households

and
local

governments).

Beyond

that,

the

scientific

community

raises

seven

main

concerns

(IPCC

2022;

Magnan,

Anisimov

and

Duvat

2022):

5. Risk assessments emphasize that even ambitious

adaptation cannot fully prevent climate-changerelated

impacts,

even

at

low

levels

of

warming

for
some

high-risk

regions

(IPCC

2018;

O’Neill,

van

Aalst

and

Ibrahim

2022;

IPCC

2022).

This

means

that

residual

risks

i.e.

risks

that

remain

despite

adaptation

and
adaptation

limits

are

expected

to

become

closer

and

more

fixed

with

climate

change

(Organisation

for

Economic

Co-operation

and

Development

[OECD]

2021).

In

that

respect,

the

IPCC

WGII
AR6

extensively

discusses

losses

and

damages

to

refer

to

the

irreversible

impacts

caused

by

anthropogenic

climate

change,

highlighting

progress

made

in

attribution

science

since

the

IPCC’s