An Undergraduate Journal Review

Submitted to the Faculty of the

Department of Physical Sciences
College of Arts and Sciences
Cavite State University
Indang, Cavite

In partial fulfilment
of the requirements for the subject
BSAM 100 (Differential Equations)

DANICA JULIE ANN AGUILAR

ANALYN EROLES
MA. THERESE JOY B. SUYAT

January 2024
 Introduction

Extinction has played a major role in the wildlife world. Species are on verge of
extinction at a faster rate due to changes in their natural habitat, climate changes,
pollution and other types of environmental situations. Over the past years, group of
Chinese and American scientists researching the antelope’s birthing and breeding
behaviors, and have discovered that pregnant antelopes run a higher risk of being
hunted.

The researchers found in the 1998-1999 time periods, that the percentage of
pregnant females dropped dramatically. At the same time an average of 20,000
antelopes were slaughtered annually. The population also has dropped several million
to below 70,000 in the past two decades due to extensive poaching and the damage of
the animals’ habitat in the wake of a gold rush.

The equilibrium states and their stability have traditionally been analyzed using
mathematical models. Some models are difference equation models and some are
differential equation models. To make a mathematical model useful, the researchers use
quantitative methods that allow them to forecast a population’s future and express the
numerical results, and leads to the development of models. In this paper, the researcher
focused on the logistic growth model to see the limitations for the population on the
population of Tibetan Antelope in China. Based on it, a general model is constructed. It
may either show the time until extinction or until the population has either decreased or
increased to reach an equilibrium level.
 Chapter 2
Basic Mathematical Techniques

2.1 A standard equation for general population growth

General population models can always be written in the form of a standard
equation. It looks like the following:
(Rate of change in quantity) = (Number of births) – (Number of deaths)
Where the quantity is related to the number of members of given population.
The equation can be written as the following:
P’(t) = (B – D)P(t)
Supposed that P(t) represent the amount of the species of interest present at
time, B represents the death rate. Note that B and D could be functions of time t or be
related to the population. Base on above equation, Let’s make some additional
assumptions.

2.2 Model 1. Both B and D are constants

Supposed that r = B – D, then r is a constant, becomes
P’(t) = rP(t)
In this simplest model, note that r can be positive; it means the population is
increasing or negative; it means the population is decreasing. It depends on which rate
term is dominant. So, we can call that r is the rate of growth or rate of decrease of the
population. This model is called the exponential model.
For differential equation, researcher find the solution easily with the known initial data.
To solve this differential equation, the researcher reviewed the definition of the solution
of such an equation (Solution of a first order initial value problem).
The differential equation is easily solved as a first order differential equation, leading to
a general solution of the following term:
P(t) = P0en
where P0 represents the initial population size.
 Mathematically, it can be described as the change in P over time is proportional
to the side of the population present. This model presents exponential growth without
limit. The researcher chose to start from this simplest model and then based on it try to
involve some factors step by step coming closer to describing the actual situation and
approaching the goal.

2.3 Assume that death rate is constant for populations are limited by some factors.
Reproduction might be a reason to the decrease of birth rate.
We can create a model where birth rate is a linearly decreasing function of the
population size where B0 and B1 are constants in form:
B = B0 – B1 P(t)
Since B is the birth rate, it should be between 0 to 1. That is, 0 ≤ B0 – B1 P ≤ 1, where B0
is the initial rate and P is the population. To control B, we need to find the range of B 1
B 0−1 B
and by manipulation, the value B1 is between and 0 .
P P
Let D0 represent initial death rate to get
P’(t) = (B0 – B1 P – D0)P =B0 P – B1P2-D0P= (B0 – D0)P – B1P2
Then define K=B1 and M = (B0 – D0)/D1 to rewrite the differential equation as,
P
P '(t )=KM P(1− )which describes logistic growth. To analyze the model and find out
M
the solution, we need to review Verhulst Equation. The logistic law of population growth
is described by the first order differential equation, N’ = rN(1 - N/K), where N is the
number of individuals in the population, and r is the intrinsic rate of change in
population, and K is carrying capacity of the environment.
The derivative will be zero at N = 0 and N = K. These two values are called equilibrium
solutions.
Using our analysis, we construct phase line diagram.
Solutions tend toward the equilibrium at K and solution N=K is stable while equilibrium at
0 is unstable. According to this model, if the population is above 0, it will go to the
carrying capacity K eventually.
So as time increases the population size reaches a finite limit. The value M is defined in
terms of birth and that expressions it was referred as the limitation of population and
expected in real world.

2.4 If B is constant, supposed that death rate is linearly increasing function of population
size such that D0 and D1 are positive constant.
From P’(t) = (B – D0 - D1P) = (B0 – D0)P – D1P2 , if we define K = D1 and M = (B0 – D0)/D1
P
Then the differential equation becomes, P '(t )=KM P(1− )
M
The size of population goes to a finite number that is related to the initial data.
Therefore, for this model the result is expected in the real world.

2.5 The simple logistic equation is a formula for describing the evolution of an animal
population over time. A difference involves differences. The simplest first order model,
Nn+1 = rNn have Nn as the number of animals this year, Nn+1 next year and r as growth
rate without limit but population is bound by limitations of its surrounding so the logistic
equation becomes Nn+1 = rNn (1-Nn) It allows the solution to be calculated recursively
and be true for all values of the integer variable n.

Chapter 3
Problem Description

3.1 The Tibetan Antelope survives in thin atmosphere on high level where few animal or
human living in that area. It is hard to obtain research on them due to geographic
distribution and the state of Chinese government. Also, there are high elevations
uninhabited by humans so census and statistic analysis of wildlife populations is hard.
The data used in this paper was collected after 1950. According to statistics, the
quantity of Tibetan Antelopes from was reduced 650 000 in 1974 to 50 000 in 1989.
Many factors affect the population such as hunting wildlife foe people’s hunger and
animal furs for fashion. Since 1979, they are recognized as endangered species and
protected but their population was still shrinking because of hunting.
3.2 According to the IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural
resources), population estimate between 1950 and 1960 ranged from 500 000 to 1 000
000.

Chapter 4
Modeling the Logistic Model

4.1 The researcher derived a mathematical model for the Tibetan Antelope using the
population sizes for the years between 1959 and 1960.
4.2 Let’s consider the logistic growth model with form:
P’ = rP(1-P/K)
4.3 The equation can be expressed as:
P
P(t + 1) – P(t) = r (1− )
K
It can be rewritten as:
ΔP P
=r (1− )
P K
which says that the ratio of Δ P to P is a linear function of P. Based on calculation, the
overall resulting plot is approximately linear and the given data is logistic.
4.4 Determining the value of r and K
In the least square approximation graph, we know the equation for the line, which is,
y = -0.0145x + 0.0967
Substituting the point P(1950) into this equation, we obtain,
y1 = -0.045*(0.5)+0.0967 = 0.08945
Similarly, substituting P(1951) into it, we obtain,
 y2 = -0.145*(0.55)+0.0967 = 0.0887
That is to say, we can get values of the ratio, a, where y=a. Then we have,
y1 = 0.08945 and y2 = 0.0887
Substituting the data of 1950, 1951 and 1952 to the equation. We have the following
two equations:

r 1− ( 0.5K )=0.08945
r (1−
K )
0.5
=0.0887

Supposed that r, K ≠ 0
0.5
1−
K 0.08945
=
0.55 0.0877
1−
K
Simplifying it, we have:
K = 6.463
Then we obtain the value for r,
r = 0.097
Therefore, the model is:
' P
P =0.097 P(1− )
6.463
As we know, the size of population for the logistic model tends to the carrying capacity
K. In this case, the size is bound by 6.463 million. In another words, the limiting number
for this population model is 6.463 million.

Chapter 5
Conclusion

A model for the population of Tibetan Antelope from the 1950 to 1960 was constructed.
That is, the differential equation that approximately models, this population is
P
P '=0.097 P (1− )
6.463
Also, the present model is showed to be logistic. From the model we can predict the
population limitation of the Tibetan Antelope. The number is 6.463x106.
The researchers find the solution and matches the given data. It implied that the
mathematical model obtained had potential as a possible logistic growth.
However, this model was not suitable after 1960 for more factors had to be considered
in order to create and define a proper model. Human interferences like hunting and
killing played a major role in the decreased population of Tibetan Antelopes.