Bajaj Electricals Q1FY24 Result Update Centrum 11082023
Bajaj Electricals Q1FY24 Result Update Centrum 11082023
Bajaj Electricals Q1FY24 Result Update Centrum 11082023
Institutional Research
India I Consumer Electricals
11 August, 2023
BJE reported flat YoY sales at Rs11.1bn amidst subdued consumer demand and Market Data
unseasonal rains impacting peak summer. Consumer products grew 2% YoY to Rs8.7bn Bloomberg: BJE IN
as 10% YoY growth in Appliances was offset by 8% YoY decline in fans. Lighting sales 52 week H/L: 1,328/1,003
fell 13% YoY to Rs2.4bn amid demand weakness and LED price erosion. BJE continues Market cap: Rs136.3bn
to de-risk its concentration on general trade (down 9% YoY), as it scale up alternate Shares Outstanding: 115.1mn
channels like modern retail (+50%), Institutional (+20%), CSD (+20%) and E-commerce
Free float: 37.4%
(+20%). Gross margin improved 60bps YoY to 29.6% while EBITDA margin fell 40bps
Avg. daily vol. 3mth: 1,31,888
YoY to 6.1% due to higher logistic costs and continued investment in brand building Source: Bloomberg
and R&D. Lower operating profit led to 10% decline in PAT to Rs375mn. BJE aims for
Changes in the report
200bps gross margin expansion over next 2-3 years driven by premiumization, sourcing
Rating: ADD; Unchanged
and cost efficiencies. The management believes that BJE’s financial metrics are healthy
Target price: Rs1,240; up 3.3%
and once demand revives and operating leverage kicks in, the operating margin profile
Transitioning to only consumer
be close to double digit, possibly in FY25. BJE has transitioned to reporting financials EPS:
business estimates
of only consumer entity without EPC business as NCLT approval for de-merger is Source: Centrum Broking
received. We retain ADD rating on the stock with a target price of Rs1,240 based on Shareholding pattern
SOTP basis. Jun-23 Mar-23 Dec-22 Sep-22
Consumer Products: Appliances growth offset by Fans’ decline Promoter 62.9 62.9 62.9 62.9
Consumer Products sales grew 2% YoY to Rs8.7bn with EBIT margin of 4.7%, down 30bps FIIs 14.3 14.3 13.6 14.0
YoY. Decent 10% YoY growth in Appliances was offset by 8% YoY decline in Fans segment DIIs 11.9 12.4 12.2 12.3
due to unseasonal rains in peak summer. Volume de-growth in fans was in early double Public/other 11.0 10.5 11.3 10.8
Source: BSE
digits. Premiumization in fans is underway as the share of sub-economy fans is down to
58% in Q1FY24 vs. 67% in FY23. The share of BLDC fans in ceiling fans portfolio rose to Centrum estimates vs Actual results
14% vs. 2% YoY. BJE has soft launched its Nex brand of premium fans (priced at Rs2,500- YE Mar *Centrum Actual Variance
7,500). Price under-recovery in fans still stays at 3-5% due to high competition. The (Rs mn) Q1FY24 Q1FY24 (%)
Nirlep brand for appliances would be re-launched in Sept’23 with new product portfolio Revenue - 11,121 -
and wider price range with initial launch of pressure cookers and cookware. Morphy EBITDA - 676 -
Richards portfolio grew 12% YoY on a low base. In-house manufacturing share is at 15- EBITDA margin (%) - 6.1 -
20%, and could rise by 10% over next few years. PAT - 375 -
EPS - 3.3 -
Lighting: Weak consumer demand and LED price erosion impacts growth Source: Centrum Broking. Actual numbers are not comparable
Lighting sales fell 13% YoY to Rs2.4bn. EBIT margin was up 20bps YoY at 8.1%. Consumer to our estimates due to business restructuring as Bajaj
Electricals has transitioned to reporting financials of only
lighting witnessed sales decline while professional lighting sales was flat YoY, excluding consumer entity without EPC business
EESL order from the base quarter. Weakness in demand was the prominent reason for
sales decline, while LED price erosion was in single digit. BJE is focusing on improving its
sales mix through value added products. In-house manufacturing share is at 30%, and
could rise by 10% over next few years.
Retain ADD rating with a revised target price of Rs1,240
We expect BJE to post 13% revenue CAGR over FY23-25E, while 120bps operating margin
expansion and lower tax rate will drive 30% earnings CAGR. Maintain ADD with SOTP
target of Rs1,240 valuing consumer business at Rs1,200 and EPC at Rs40.
Financial and valuation summary
YE Mar (Rs mn) 1QFY24A 1QFY23A YoY (%) 4QFY23A QoQ (%) FY23A FY24E FY25E
Revenues 11,121 11,292 (1.5) 12,920 (13.9) 48,892 54,422 62,762
EBITDA 676 733 (7.8) 946 (28.6) 3,748 4,103 5,601
Consumer Electricals
Chirag Muchhala
EBITDA margin (%) 6.1 6.5 (40bps) 7.3 (120bps) 7.7 7.5 8.9
Research Analyst, Consumer Electricals
Adj. Net profit 375 419 (10.4) 530 (29.2) 2,154 2,554 3,653 +91-22-4215 9203
Adj. EPS (Rs) 3.3 3.6 (10.6) 4.6 (29.2) 18.7 22.2 31.7 [email protected]
EPS growth (%) 57.2 18.5 43.0
PE (x) 63.8 53.8 37.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 35.7 32.1 23.1
PBV (x) 7.0 6.4 5.6
Rahul Kumar Mishra
RoE (%) 11.6 12.4 15.9 Research Associate, Consumer Electricals
RoCE (%) 13.2 13.8 17.3 +91-22-4215 9265
Source: Company, Centrum Broking [email protected]
Please see Disclaimer for analyst certifications and all other important disclosures.
Bajaj Electricals Ltd 11 August, 2023
Thesis Snapshot
Estimate revision Valuations
FY24E FY24E FY25E FY25E We assign 35x to Consumer business and 13x to EPC business on FY25E
YE Mar (Rs mn) % chg % chg
New Old New Old earnings. We arrive at an SOTP-based target price of Rs1,240.
Revenue 54,422 - 62,762 -
EBITDA 4,103 - 5,601 -
Valuations Rs/share
EBITDA margin (%) 7.5 - 8.9 -
Consumer business value 1,200
Adj. PAT 2,554 - 3,653 -
EPC business value 40
Diluted EPS (Rs) 22.2 - 31.7 -
Total Target price per share 1,240
Source: Centrum Broking. Note – Bajaj Electricals has transitioned to reporting
financials of only consumer entity without EPC business. We have aligned our EV/EBITDA mean and standard deviation
estimates to reflect only consumer business.
70
Bajaj Electricals versus NIFTY Midcap 100 60
1m 6m 1 year
50
40
BJE IN (3.2) (0.6) 2.4
30
NIFTY Midcap 100 4.4 21.9 23.7
20
Source: Bloomberg, NSE
10
Key assumptions 0
Aug-21
Aug-18
Aug-19
Aug-20
Aug-22
Aug-23
Feb-20
Feb-19
Feb-21
Feb-22
Feb-23
Y/E Mar FY24E FY25E
Consumer Products revenue growth (%) 12.0 16.0
Consumer Products EBIT Margin (%) 7.0 8.7 EV/EBITDA Mean
Lighting revenue growth (%) 9.0 13.0 Mean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev
Lighting EBIT Margin (%) 8.3 9.0 Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Broking
Source: Centrum Broking
Peer comparison
Mkt Cap CAGR (FY23-25E) P/E (x) ROE (%) ROCE (%)
Company
(Rs mn) Sales EBITDA EPS FY23 FY24E FY25E FY23 FY24E FY25E FY23 FY24E FY25E
BJE 1,40,088 13.3 22.3 30.2 65.0 54.8 38.3 11.6 12.4 15.9 13.2 13.8 17.3
CROMPTON 1,93,215 14.7 23.1 27.9 41.7 31.9 25.5 18.1 21.2 23.1 12.7 17.0 20.5
HAVL 8,08,216 15.3 21.5 25.0 75.2 56.8 48.0 17.1 19.8 21.4 16.9 20.2 21.7
ORIENTEL 50,928 19.7 42.7 50.8 67.0 39.8 29.5 13.5 20.4 23.8 16.0 22.8 26.0
POLYCAB 6,86,111 19.1 21.6 23.2 54.0 41.5 35.6 20.9 22.8 22.4 21.4 23.3 23.0
VGRD 1,31,490 17.9 36.9 41.9 69.7 46.5 34.6 12.5 16.5 19.4 11.6 15.0 18.1
Source: Company, Centrum Broking
Consumer Products
Premiumization in happening in fans. Sub-economy share is down to 58% in Q1 vs. 67%
in FY23.
Fans still has 3-5% under recovery due to competition
Volume de-growth in fans is in early double digits in Q1
BJE would have gained market share in fans over six-months period of Jan-June 2023
PCB issues in BLDC fans, if it arises, will happen after 2 to 5 years of usage across brands
Discounting is more pronounced in fans and lesser in kitchen appliances
Next brand for premium fans has been soft launched. Price range is Rs2,500-7,500 vs
Bajaj brand price range of Rs1,300-3,500. Hard launch is likely in next summer
Nirlep brand will be relaunched in Sept with new product portfolio and wider price
range. Initial products will be pressure cooker & cookware.
Nirlep will have a 3-5 years’ journey of product portfolio and brand building. It will see
a moderate investment and won’t hit P&L materially
Lighting
Consumer lighting de-grew. Professional lighting sales is flat excluding the EESL order
delivered in Q1 last year
Products portfolio is fully in place, now at par with leaders. Distributors are put in place.
Overall market growth will revive in Q3.
LED price erosion magnitude is in single digit, Demand weakness is a bigger reason for
weaker sales than price erosion effect.
Improving sales mix through value added products
Outsourced many consumer lighting products and started making professional lighting
products in-house.
As a % of revenue
Direct Costs 71.0 70.3 70.4
Gross Margin 29.0 29.7 29.6
Staff Cost 7.2 6.8 8.1
Other expenses 15.3 15.6 15.5
EBITDA Margin 6.5 7.3 6.1
PAT Margin 3.7 4.1 3.4
Tax rate 27.4 34.5 29.2
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking
10,000 10.1 10
9.5
8
8,000 7.5
7.0 6.6
6
(Rsmn)
(%)
6,000 5.0 5.0
4
4.7
4,000
2
2,000 0
(0.1)
- -2
Q1FY24
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking.
(%)
1,500 4
3.7
1,000 3
2
500 1.4
1
- 0
Q3FY22
Q1FY22
Q2FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Source: Company Data, Centrum Broking.
Note: Bajaj Electricals has transitioned to reporting financials of only consumer entity
without EPC business in Q1FY23. Hence, FY21 and FY22 are not comparable to FY23-25E.
We have aligned our estimates to reflect only consumer business.
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Bajaj Electricals
2050
1550
1050
550
50
Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Aug-23
Bajaj Electricals Ltd
Source: Bloomberg
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Bajaj Electricals
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No
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research report
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Research Analyst
SEBI Registration No. INH000001469
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