18th February, 2024

Vspartans Consultants Pvt Ltd

Research Report - Biocon Limited

NSE Code: BIOCON
Recommendation: Buy
Current Price: INR 287
Target: INR 397
Potential Upside: 38%
Expected Holding Period: 12 Months
Financial Ratios:
Market Cap Rs 34439 Cr Promoters 60.6%
Holding

Current Price Rs 287 Pledging % 0.00%

52 Wk High/Low Rs 307/192 Debt to Equity 0.96

PE Ratio 28.7 EPS (TTM) 10.00

Book Value 158 Dividend Yield 0.52%

ROCE 5.92% ROE 4.78%

About the Company:

Biocon Limited: A Global Biopharmaceutical Leader

About Biocon:

Biocon Limited is a leading biopharmaceutical company based in India, with a

global presence in over 120 countries. Founded in 1978, Biocon has grown into a
multi-divisional conglomerate with a mission to deliver affordable, high-quality
medicines for unmet patient needs.

Business Divisions:

Generics: Biocon's generics business is one of the largest in India, offering a

wide range of affordable medicines across various therapeutic segments.
They are known for their expertise in API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients)
manufacturing and supply chain management.
Biosimilars: Biocon is a leading player in the global biosimilars market, with a
strong portfolio of biosimilar versions of complex biologics used in oncology,
diabetes, and other chronic conditions.
Branded Formulations: This division focuses on developing and
commercializing innovative new drugs for the Indian market, primarily in
areas like diabetes, oncology, and immunology.
 Research Services: Biocon Syngen offers contract research and
manufacturing services (CRAMS) to the global pharmaceutical and
biotechnology industry.

Recent Developments:

Biocon Biologics partnered with Sandoz Australia for the commercialization

of two biosimilars in February 2024.
The company received tentative approval for its Dasatinib tablets from the
US FDA in February 2024.
Biocon invested heavily in R&D, with a spend of ₹817 Cr in Q3 FY24.

Strengths:

Strong brand recognition and reputation for quality.

Diversified business model with a presence across various segments.
Leadership in generics and biosimilars market.
Focus on innovation and R&D.

Challenges:

Intense competition in the pharmaceutical industry.

Regulatory hurdles in new markets.
Price pressure in the generics market.

Future Outlook:

Biocon is well-positioned for future growth driven by its strong product

portfolio, focus on innovation, and expanding global presence. The growing
demand for affordable biosimilars and branded formulations presents
significant opportunities for the company.

Biocon's Manufacturing Footprint and Expansion Plans:

Current Facilities:

Biocon operates 5 state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities across India,

located in Bangalore, Hyderabad, and Visakhapatnam.

These facilities are USFDA, EMA, COFEPRIS, and KFDA approved, ensuring global
compliance and quality standards.

They cater to a diverse range of products, including:

APIs (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) based on fermentation, synthetic
chemistry, peptides, and high-potent APIs.

Oral solid formulations for generic medicines.

Expansion Plans:

Biocon is committed to expanding its manufacturing capacity to meet growing

demand and support future growth.

Key initiatives include:

Visakhapatnam Greenfield Facility: A new 50-acre facility under

construction, dedicated to API production based on fermentation and
synthetic chemistry. Expected to be operational by 2025.
Biologics Manufacturing Expansion: Biocon Biologics is investing in
expanding its existing Bengaluru facility and building a new facility in
Bengaluru to increase biosimilar production capacity.
Oral Solid Dosage Expansion: The acquisition of Eywa Pharma's facility in
Cranbury, New Jersey, USA, provides Biocon with its first US-based
manufacturing unit for oral solid dosage forms. This expands Biocon's reach
in the US market and enables faster product launches.

Acquisitions:
Biocon has been actively pursuing acquisitions to strengthen its manufacturing
capabilities and product portfolio.

Recent acquisitions include:

Eywa Pharma Inc., USA (September 2023): Provides oral solid dosage
manufacturing capacity in the US.

Biocon's Acquisition of Viatris' Biosimilars Business: A Closer Look

On November 18th, 2022, Biocon Biologics Ltd. successfully completed the

acquisition of Viatris Inc.'s global biosimilars business for a total consideration
of up to USD 3.335 billion. This acquisition marked a significant milestone for
Biocon, solidifying its position as a leading biosimilar player globally.
Details of the Transaction:

Consideration: Up to USD 3.335 billion, including:

USD 2 billion upfront cash payment.

USD 1 billion in compulsorily convertible preference shares (CCPS) in Biocon
Biologics, representing an equity stake of at least 12.9% on a fully diluted
basis.
Additional payments of up to USD 335 million expected in 2024.

Acquired Assets:

Viatris' global biosimilars portfolio, spanning 11 approved biosimilars and

several biosimilars in development, across various therapeutic areas like
oncology, diabetes, and ophthalmology.
Commercial infrastructure and salesforce in over 30 countries.
Development and manufacturing capabilities.

Impact on Biocon:

Expanded Biosimilar Portfolio: Biocon Biologics now boasts one of the

broadest and deepest biosimilar portfolios in the industry, with 18 marketed
biosimilars and a robust pipeline.
Enhanced Geographical Reach: The acquisition grants Biocon direct
commercial presence in advanced markets like the US and Europe, along
with strengthening its position in emerging markets.
Financial Growth: The combined entity is expected to achieve significant
revenue and profitability growth, boosting Biocon's overall financial
performance.

Benefits & Challenges:

Benefits:

Increased market share and global leadership: The combined entity

commands a significant market share, solidifying Biocon's position as a
leading biosimilars player globally.
Enhanced research and development: The combined R&D capabilities are
expected to accelerate the development and launch of new biosimilars.
Improved access to affordable medicines: Increased capacity and reach
facilitate greater access to affordable biosimilars for patients worldwide.
Challenges:

Integration complexities: Integrating two large organizations with diverse

processes and systems presents challenges.
Regulatory approvals: Ensuring smooth regulatory approvals and market
access for acquired biosimilars in new geographies requires careful
navigation.
Financial management: Successfully integrating the financial aspects of the
acquisition while maintaining financial stability demands strategic planning.

Current Status:

As of February 18th, 2024, the integration of Viatris' biosimilars business into

Biocon Biologics has been successfully completed in several regions, including
Europe, North America, and over 70 emerging markets. This signifies significant
progress in realizing the potential of this transformative acquisition.

Overall, Biocon's manufacturing expansion plans and acquisitions demonstrate

its commitment to becoming a leading global biopharmaceutical player. These
initiatives are expected to fuel future growth and create value for stakeholders.

About Pharma Industry in India:

Indian Pharma Industry: A Global Leader in API, Generics, and Biosimilars

Global Position:

3rd largest by volume: India's pharmaceutical industry ranks 3rd globally in

terms of volume output, behind the US and China.
"Pharmacy of the World": It plays a crucial role in supplying affordable
medicines to the world, especially in developing countries.
Major strengths: Low-cost manufacturing, strong scientific talent, and a
large domestic market are key drivers of its success.

Key Segments:

API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients):

India accounts for approximately 8% of global API production, supplying
raw materials for drug manufacturing.
Large and diverse API manufacturing base offers cost-competitiveness.
Regulatory concerns and quality control issues remain challenges.
 Generic Drugs:
World leader in generic drug production, holding a 20% global market
share by volume.
Provides affordable essential medicines to meet unmet needs globally.
Increasing price pressure and competition pose challenges.
Biosimilars:
Fast-growing segment with strong Indian presence.
Biocon Biologics is a global leader, offering several approved biosimilars
and a robust pipeline.
Regulatory complexities and competition from established players exist.

Comparison with the World:

Strengths:

Cost-competitiveness: Lower production costs enable affordable medicines.

Strong talent pool: Large pool of scientists and engineers at competitive
salaries.
Growing domestic market: Domestic pharma market is expanding rapidly,
driving industry growth.
Government support: Supportive policies and schemes are attracting
investments.

Weaknesses:

Regulatory challenges: Concerns about quality control and regulatory

compliance persist.
Innovation gap: Limited investment in R&D compared to developed
countries.
Limited API self-sufficiency: Dependence on China for some key APIs raises
concerns.
Price pressure: Intense competition leads to shrinking profit margins.

Opportunities:

Growing global demand for affordable medicines: Expanding market for

Indian generics and biosimilars.
Rise of chronic diseases: Increased demand for innovative therapies
presents opportunities.
Government initiatives: Schemes like PLI (Production Linked Incentive) aim
to boost domestic API production and R&D.
Threats:

Intellectual property (IP) challenges: Difficulty in developing new drugs due

to stringent IP regimes.
Competition from other emerging markets: Countries like China are
increasing their share in the pharma sector.
Regulatory changes in key markets: Stringent regulations in developed
markets can impact market access.

Overall, the Indian pharma industry enjoys a strong position globally in API,
generics, and biosimilars. However, addressing weaknesses and capitalizing on
opportunities are crucial for sustained growth and global leadership.

Per Capita Pharmaceutical Spending: India vs. World Comparison

with Future Growth Prospects
India:

Per capita spending:Varies depending on the source and methodology used.

Here are some estimates:
$57 (USD, PPP): This figure comes from the 2022 Statista report on
pharmaceutical spending per capita by country. It uses purchasing power
parity (PPP) to adjust for differences in living costs, making comparisons
more meaningful.
$14 (USD, current): This figure comes from the World Bank data for 2020.
It uses current US dollars, which means it doesn't adjust for differences in
living costs and might underestimate relative spending power.
Overall spending: India ranks 18th globally in total pharmaceutical spending,
but 140th in per capita spending, reflecting its large population.
Reasons for low spending: Lower drug prices due to a strong generics
industry, limited health insurance coverage, and out-of-pocket expenses as a
major source of healthcare funding.

World:

Per capita spending: The average global per capita spending on

pharmaceuticals in 2022 was $689 (USD, PPP) according to Statista.
Variations: There is significant variation in per capita spending across
different countries. The United States leads with $1,292 (USD, PPP), followed
by Switzerland and Germany.
Factors influencing spending: Factors like healthcare systems, drug pricing
regulations, income levels, and disease burden all play a role in per capita
 spending.

Key takeaways:

India's per capita pharmaceutical spending is significantly lower than the

global average.
This is due to several factors, including lower drug prices, limited health
insurance coverage, and out-of-pocket expenses shouldering a major part of
healthcare costs.
Despite lower spending, India's pharmaceutical industry plays a prominent
role globally in manufacturing generic drugs.

Key Financial Data:

All figures except EPS are in INR Crore Source: screener.in

Quarterly P&L Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23

Sales 2140 2320 2941 3774 3423 3462 3954

Operating Profit 356 442 589 957 681 717 903

Profit Before Tax 197 229 -26 497 184 214 808

Net Profit 167 82 -21 414 149 173 753

EPS 1.20 0.39 -0.35 2.61 0.84 1.05 5.50

The quarterly results have demonstrated consistent growth over the past six to
seven quarters. Revenue has increased from INR 2,140 crore in the June 2022
quarter to INR 3,954 crore in the December 2023 quarter. Net profit has also
seen significant growth, rising from INR 167 crore in the June 2022 quarter to
INR 753 crore in the latest quarter.

However, there was a net loss in the December 2022 quarter, amounting to INR
21 crore. This was primarily due to an exceptional loss of INR 271 crore. Without
this exceptional loss, the December 2022 quarter would have shown a good net
profit as well.

Overall, the company has achieved its highest-ever revenue, operating profit,
profit before tax, net profit, and earnings per share, indicating its best-ever
quarterly performance.
Very low forward looking PE Ratio:
The company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28.7 based
on its trailing twelve months (TTM) numbers. However, considering the net profit
of INR 753 crore posted in the latest December 2023 quarter and assuming
similar performance in the coming quarters, the accumulated profit over the
next four quarters would be INR 3,012 crore (753 * 4).

With a current market capitalization of INR 34,439 crore, and based on the
expected net profit of INR 3,012 crore in the coming year, the stock is trading at
a forward-looking P/E ratio of just 11.43 (Market Cap 34,439 / Expected Net
profit 3,012). This calculation is based on the assumption that the company will
perform similarly or better than it did in the latest December 2023 quarter.

Peer Group Comparison:

Additionally, a comparison with peer group companies shows that the median
price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the pharmaceutical industry is 34.56, whereas
Biocon's TTM PE ratio is 28.73, and the forward-looking PE ratio is just 11.43,
indicating a relatively low valuation.
Furthermore, Biocon is also trading at a low valuation in terms of the price-to-
book value (PBV) ratio. The median PBV of the industry is 4.18, whereas Biocon's
PBV is just 1.81.

All figures except EPS are in INR Crore

Yearly P&L Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 TTM

Sales 3891 4123 5514 6300 7143 8184 11174 14612

Operating Profit 980 829 1394 1575 1581 1793 2412 3258

Profit Before Tax 850 610 1215 1186 1068 983 897 1703

Net Profit 688 453 1003 871 846 772 643 1489

EPS (split adjusted) 5.10 3.10 7.54 6.24 6.17 5.40 3.85 10.00

The company has shown consistent growth over the past several years. Revenue
has tripled from INR 3,891 crore in March 2017 to INR 14,612 crore in the trailing
twelve months (TTM), indicating strong and steady growth. Furthermore, there
has been a consistent pattern of growth over this period. The company has
achieved its highest-ever revenue, operating profit, and net profit in the TTM
period, demonstrating its best-ever performance.

All figures are in INR Crore Source: screener.in

Balance Sheet Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Sep-23

Share Capital 300 300 600 600 600 600 600

Reserve 4881 5798 6106 7027 7832 17267 18382

Borrowing 2264 2422 2715 4481 5147 18019 18252

Other Liabilities 2545 3672 4993 6382 6763 15856 17342

Total Liabilities 9990 12192 14414 18490 20342 51742 54577

Fixed Assets 3700 4471 5971 6364 6569 29468 34634

CWIP 1303 1899 2196 2800 4110 7317 3260

Investments 675 1012 966 1952 1588 2069 2040

Other Assets 4312 4811 5281 7374 8074 12888 14642

Total Assets 9990 12192 14414 18490 20342 51742 54577

The increase in share capital from 300 crore to 600 crore in the financial year
ending March 2020 was due to a 1:1 bonus issue, indicating no capital dilution
but rather a stock split. Biocon has been on a growth trajectory, as evidenced by
the increase in shareholder's funds, with reserves rising from 4881 crore in
March 2018 to 18382 crore in September 2023.

The increase in borrowing is primarily attributed to the acquisition of Viatris'

Biosimilars Business. The integration of this business has been successful,
reflected in the highest-ever quarterly revenue and net profit reported in
December 2023. Looking ahead, with rising net profit, the company is likely to
either repay its debt, leading to a reduction in the debt-equity ratio (currently at
0.96), or utilize the profits for further expansion, thereby increasing reserves. In
both scenarios, the debt-equity ratio would decrease. However, if the company
opts for aggressive expansion and exceeds its earned net profit in capital
expenditure, additional borrowing may be required.

The company's fixed assets have grown significantly, from 3700 crore in March
2018 to 34634 crore in September 2023, largely driven by the acquisition of
Viatris’ Biosimilars business. Biocon continues its capacity expansion, evident
from the INR 3260 crore in Capital Work in Progress (CWIP) as of September 30,
2023.

In conclusion, Biocon boasts a growing and robust balance sheet, underpinned

by its strategic acquisitions and ongoing capacity expansion initiatives.

Shareholding Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23

Pattern

Promoters 60.64 60.64 60.64 60.64 60.64 60.64

FIIs 15.79 14.42 10.20 9.52 7.97 6.55

DIIs 7.76 8.63 11.89 12.59 14.08 14.51

Others 0.63 0.58 0.55 0.49 0.39 0.33

Public 15.17 15.74 16.70 16.77 16.92 17.96

Source: screener.in All figures are in percentage

The company's shareholding pattern reflects a robust ownership structure, with

Promoters holding a dominant 60.64%, followed by Foreign Institutional
Investors (FIIs) at 6.55% and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) at 14.51%.
Together, Promoters, DIIs, and FIIs own nearly 82% of the company, indicating
strong confidence in the management and products.

While there has been a decrease in FIIs' holding in recent quarters, this entire
stake has been acquired by DIIs, resulting in no net change in the institutional
holding collectively. This reaffirms the continued trust and interest of
institutional investors in the company. Public shareholders hold a relatively
smaller share of 17.96%, with a significant majority of 82% being controlled by
influential entities such as promoters, DIIs, and FIIs.

Technical Chart Analysis:

Zoomed in chart
The stock reached its peak at 487 on December 23, 2020, but has since declined
to 287, representing a decrease of about 41%. This price level is comparable to
where the stock was trading in January 2018, indicating a consolidation phase
lasting over six years.

During this long consolidation period, the company's revenue, net profit,
reserves, fixed assets, and Capital Work in Progress (CWIP) have all seen
significant growth. Following the successful acquisition and integration of
Viatris' Biosimilars Business, along with the posting of its highest-ever net profit,
the stock is now forming a bullish cup with handle pattern on technical charts.
This pattern suggests a technical price target of 397, which represents a
potential upside of 38% from the current price of 287.

Conclusion:
Taking into account various factors including market leadership, record-breaking
quarterly and trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue and net profit, successful
acquisition and integration of Viatris’ Biosimilar business, ongoing expansion
plans, and the stock's very low valuation based on TTM and forward-looking PE
ratios, coupled with the formation of a bullish cup with handle technical chart
pattern, we anticipate a potential upside of 38% with a target price of 397 from
the current price of 287. Therefore, we recommend buying at the current price
of 287 with a target of 397.

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Definition of Ratings

Ratings Expected Absolute Returns over 12-

18 Months

Buy More Than 10%

Hold Between 10% and -10%

Sell Less than -10%

Not Rated We have forward looking estimates

for the stock but we refrain from
assigning valuation and
recommendation

Under Review We will revisit our recommendation,

valuation and estimates on the stock
following recent events

No Stance We do not have any forward-looking

estimates, valuation or
recommendation for the stock

Other Disclosures

Name of the compliance officer– MRS. NISHI SINGHAL

Telephone no. / Mobile no. +91 9881493166

Email id - [email protected]

Name of the Grievances officer- CA. AASTHA AGRAWAL

Telephone no. / Mobile no. +91 9371193166

Email id - [email protected]
ANALYST CERTIFICATION: I, Nirmal Agrawal (B.COM, FCA) Research Analyst author and the
name subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research
report accurately reflect my views about the subject security. I/ also certify that no part of
my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report

Please send your feedback to [email protected] or [email protected]

ANALYST

Nirmal Agrawal [email protected] +91 9881493166

(Sources: Charts and Financial Data from Screener.in and Tradingview.com)