PMT

Cambridge International AS & A Level

MATHEMATICS 9709/52
Paper 5 Probability & Statistics 1 May/June 2023
MARK SCHEME
Maximum Mark: 50

Published

This mark scheme is published as an aid to teachers and candidates, to indicate the requirements of the
examination. It shows the basis on which Examiners were instructed to award marks. It does not indicate the
details of the discussions that took place at an Examiners’ meeting before marking began, which would have
considered the acceptability of alternative answers.

Mark schemes should be read in conjunction with the question paper and the Principal Examiner Report for
Teachers.

Cambridge International will not enter into discussions about these mark schemes.

Cambridge International is publishing the mark schemes for the May/June 2023 series for most
Cambridge IGCSE, Cambridge International A and AS Level and Cambridge Pre-U components, and some
Cambridge O Level components.

This document consists of 18 printed pages.

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Generic Marking Principles

These general marking principles must be applied by all examiners when marking candidate answers. They should be applied alongside the specific content of the
mark scheme or generic level descriptors for a question. Each question paper and mark scheme will also comply with these marking principles.

GENERIC MARKING PRINCIPLE 1:

Marks must be awarded in line with:
 the specific content of the mark scheme or the generic level descriptors for the question
 the specific skills defined in the mark scheme or in the generic level descriptors for the question
 the standard of response required by a candidate as exemplified by the standardisation scripts.

GENERIC MARKING PRINCIPLE 2:

Marks awarded are always whole marks (not half marks, or other fractions).

GENERIC MARKING PRINCIPLE 3:

Marks must be awarded positively:
 marks are awarded for correct/valid answers, as defined in the mark scheme. However, credit is given for valid answers which go beyond the scope of the
syllabus and mark scheme, referring to your Team Leader as appropriate
 marks are awarded when candidates clearly demonstrate what they know and can do
 marks are not deducted for errors
 marks are not deducted for omissions
 answers should only be judged on the quality of spelling, punctuation and grammar when these features are specifically assessed by the question as
indicated by the mark scheme. The meaning, however, should be unambiguous.

GENERIC MARKING PRINCIPLE 4:

Rules must be applied consistently, e.g. in situations where candidates have not followed instructions or in the application of generic level descriptors.

GENERIC MARKING PRINCIPLE 5:

Marks should be awarded using the full range of marks defined in the mark scheme for the question (however; the use of the full mark range may be limited
according to the quality of the candidate responses seen).

GENERIC MARKING PRINCIPLE 6:

Marks awarded are based solely on the requirements as defined in the mark scheme. Marks should not be awarded with grade thresholds or grade descriptors in
mind.

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Mathematics Specific Marking Principles

1 Unless a particular method has been specified in the question, full marks may be awarded for any correct method. However, if a calculation is required then
no marks will be awarded for a scale drawing.

2 Unless specified in the question, answers may be given as fractions, decimals or in standard form. Ignore superfluous zeros, provided that the degree of
accuracy is not affected.

3 Allow alternative conventions for notation if used consistently throughout the paper, e.g. commas being used as decimal points.

4 Unless otherwise indicated, marks once gained cannot subsequently be lost, e.g. wrong working following a correct form of answer is ignored (isw).

5 Where a candidate has misread a number in the question and used that value consistently throughout, provided that number does not alter the difficulty or
the method required, award all marks earned and deduct just 1 mark for the misread.

6 Recovery within working is allowed, e.g. a notation error in the working where the following line of working makes the candidate’s intent clear.

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Mark Scheme Notes

The following notes are intended to aid interpretation of mark schemes in general, but individual mark schemes may include marks awarded for specific reasons
outside the scope of these notes.

Types of mark

M Method mark, awarded for a valid method applied to the problem. Method marks are not lost for numerical errors, algebraic slips or errors in units.
However, it is not usually sufficient for a candidate just to indicate an intention of using some method or just to quote a formula; the formula or idea
must be applied to the specific problem in hand, e.g. by substituting the relevant quantities into the formula. Correct application of a formula
without the formula being quoted obviously earns the M mark and in some cases an M mark can be implied from a correct answer.

A Accuracy mark, awarded for a correct answer or intermediate step correctly obtained. Accuracy marks cannot be given unless the associated method
mark is earned (or implied).

B Mark for a correct result or statement independent of method marks.

DM or DB When a part of a question has two or more ‘method’ steps, the M marks are generally independent unless the scheme specifically says otherwise;
and similarly, when there are several B marks allocated. The notation DM or DB is used to indicate that a particular M or B mark is dependent on
an earlier M or B (asterisked) mark in the scheme. When two or more steps are run together by the candidate, the earlier marks are implied and full
credit is given.

FT Implies that the A or B mark indicated is allowed for work correctly following on from previously incorrect results. Otherwise, A or B marks are
given for correct work only.

 A or B marks are given for correct work only (not for results obtained from incorrect working) unless follow through is allowed (see abbreviation FT above).
 For a numerical answer, allow the A or B mark if the answer is correct to 3 significant figures or would be correct to 3 significant figures if rounded (1
decimal place for angles in degrees).
 The total number of marks available for each question is shown at the bottom of the Marks column.
 Wrong or missing units in an answer should not result in loss of marks unless the guidance indicates otherwise.
 Square brackets [ ] around text or numbers show extra information not needed for the mark to be awarded.

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Abbreviations

AEF/OE Any Equivalent Form (of answer is equally acceptable) / Or Equivalent

AG Answer Given on the question paper (so extra checking is needed to ensure that the detailed working leading to the result is valid)

CAO Correct Answer Only (emphasising that no ‘follow through’ from a previous error is allowed)

CWO Correct Working Only

ISW Ignore Subsequent Working

SOI Seen Or Implied

SC Special Case (detailing the mark to be given for a specific wrong solution, or a case where some standard marking practice is to be varied in the
light of a particular circumstance)

WWW Without Wrong Working

AWRT Answer Which Rounds To

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Question Answer Marks Guidance

1(a) 1 B1
3k  3k  8k  1, so k 
14

B1 FT Table with correct values of x, and at least one correct

x 2 2 3
probability linked with outcome. FT their k.
Condone any additional X values if probability stated as
3 3 8
P(x) , 0.214 ,0.214 ,0.571 0.
14 14 14
B1 FT The outcomes in the table must be –2, 2 and 3.
2 further correct probabilities in table
or 3 correct probabilities not in table linked to outcomes,
or 3 correct FT probabilities in table using their k,
or 3 incorrect probabilities summing to 1 in table if k not
stated.

If k not calculated, SC B1 for the below.

x 2 2 3

P(x) 3k 3k 8k

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Question Answer Marks Guidance

1(b)  3 3 8  M1 Accept unsimplified expression. May be calculated in

 E  X   2  14  2  14  3  14   variance.
 
FT their table with 3 probabilities summing to 0.999 ⩽
6 6 24 total ⩽ 1 (0 < p < 1) or in terms of k.
  
14 14 14

  M1 Appropriate variance formula using their (E(X))2 value.

 Var  X   (2)  14  2  14  3  14   their E  X  
3 3 8 2
2 2 2
 FT their table with 3 or more probabilities (0 < p < 1)
 
2
which need not sum to 1, or in terms of k with an
3 3 8  12  expression no more evaluated than shown.
4  4   9    their 
14 14 14  7
12  12  72  12  
2

   their  
 14  7  

12 5 A1 Answers for E(X) and Var(X) must be identified. E(X)

E(X) = , 1.71, 1 may be identified by correct use in Variance (condone E,
7 7
V, μ, σ2, etc.).
192 45
Var(X) = , 3.92, 3 If A0 earned, SC B1 for identified correct final answers.
49 49

Question Answer Marks Guidance

2(a) 192 B1 Exact value required

[P(no rain) = 0.6   0.8 =] 0.3072,
3

625

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Question Answer Marks Guidance

2(b) 0.6  0.8  0.2 M1 a  b  c where a, b = 0.6, 0.8, c = 0.2, 0.4, 0.7 .
Condone including Wednesday with both 0.3 and 0.7
used.

12 A1
= 0.096[0],
125

2(c) 48 B1 Correct probability for one clearly identified outcome

P  RDDD   0.4  0.3  0.8  0.8 = 0.0768, evaluated accept unsimplified.
625
18 A correct unsimplified expression is not sufficient.
P  DRDD   0.6  0.2  0.3  0.8 = 0.0288,
625 M1 Add 4 probability values, 0 < p < 1, for appropriate
18
P  DDRD   0.6  0.8  0.2  0.3 = 0.0288, identified scenarios. Accept unsimplified.
625
48 Ways of identifying scenarios for this mark:
P  DDDR   0.6  0.8  0.8  0.2 = 0.0768,
625 Stating the days.
All the unsimplified probability calculations exactly as
stated in the mark scheme.
Identifying the correct branches on a tree diagram and
linking with the values.

No repeated scenarios. No incorrect scenarios.

132 A1 Accept 0.211

0.2112,
625 132
If 0/3 scored SC B1 for 0.2112, .
625

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Question Answer Marks Guidance

3(a) Median = 2710 B1 Must be identified, condone Q2.

Ignore units throughout.

2840 – 2610 M1 2820 ⩽ UQ ⩽ 2850 – 2600 ⩽ LQ ⩽ 2620.

230 A1 www
If M0 scored SC B1 for 230 www.
If key ignored consistently:
B0 Median = 271
SC M1 282 ⩽ UQ ⩽ 285 – 260 ⩽ LQ ⩽ 262
SC A1 23.

3(b) Box-and-whisker plot on provided grid. B1 All 5 key values for B plotted accurately in standard
format using a linear scale with 3 identified values.
Labelled B.
Scale at least 1 cm = $100.

B: 2540 2600 2690 2780 3090 B1FT All 5 key values for A, FT from (a), plotted accurately in
A: 2500 2610 2710 2840 3010 standard format using a linear scale with 3 identified
values. Labelled A.
Scale at least 1cm = $100

B1 Whiskers not through box for both, not drawn at corners

of boxes, single linear scale for the diagram and labelled
‘salaries’ (oe) and $.

3
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Question Answer Marks Guidance

3(c) Examples: B1 Must refer to company B, may be implied by appropriate

Mean less appropriate than median because of extreme value for company B use of $3090.
[at $3090]. Must include an indication that the mean is not
No, extreme value in company B. appropriate.
No, $3090 is an anomaly. No contradictory statements can be present, e.g.
acceptable comment with ‘but mean could be used for
company A’.
Condone reference to $309.

Question Answer Marks Guidance

4(a) 64 B1 Condone 0.102 .

[P(X = 4) =  0.8   0.2  ] 0.1024,
3

625

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Question Answer Marks Guidance

4(b) [P(X < 6 ) =] 1  0.85 M1 1  0.8d , d = 5, 6.

2101 A1 0.67232 to at least 3SF.

= 0.672,
3125 2101
If M0 awarded, SC B1 for or 0.67232 only.
3125

Alternative Method for Question 4(b)

2 3 4 M1 If answer correct, condone omission of 2 from 3 middle
 1   4  1   4   1   4   1   4   1 
[P(X < 6 ) = ]                      terms.
 5   5  5   5   5   5   5   5   5 
Allow M1 for
2 3 4 5
 1   4  1   4   1   4   1   4   1   4   1 
                         
 5   5  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5 

2101 A1 0.67232 to at least 3SF.

= 0.672,
3125 2101
If M0 awarded, SC B1 for or 0.67232 only.
3125

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Question Answer Marks Guidance

4(c)  P  X  0  X  2  M1 14
 P  X  0|X  2    [P( X > 0 ∩ X ≠ 2) = ] , 0.56[0] seen as numerator or
 P  X  2  25
denominator of conditional probability fraction.
14
= 25 M1
[P(X ≠ 2) = ]
19
, 0.76[0] seen as denominator of
19
25
25
conditional probability fraction.
14
= , 0.737
19 A1 14
Final answer = , 0.7368421… to at least 3SF.
19
If A0, SC B1 for correct final answer www.

Alternative Method for Question 4(c)

1 2 3 4 5 M1  Number of outcome  X  0  X  2   14 seen as

 
1 0 1 2 3 4
numerator or denominator of conditional probability
2 1 0 1 2 3
fraction.
3 2 1 0 1 2
4 3 2 1 0 1
M1  Number of outcome  X  2  19 seen as denominator
5 4 3 2 1 0  
of conditional probability fraction.
 Number of outcome  X  0  X  2  
 P  X  0|X  2    A1 14
 Number of outcomes X  2  Final answer = , 0.7368421… to at least 3SF.
19
14
, 0.737
19

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Question Answer Marks Guidance

4(d) 6 M1 One term 9Cx  p  x 1  p 9 x , 0  p  1, 0  x  9.

[P(X >2) = 1 – P(0, 1, 2) with p = ]
25
9 1 8 2 7
 19   6   19   6   19  A1 1 – (9C0 1 p 9 + 9C1  p 1 1 p 8
1 – (9C0   + 9C1     + 9C2     )
 25   25   25   25   25 
+ 9C2  p  1  p  ) , 0  p  1 .
2 7
[1 – (0.08459 + 0.2404 + 0.3037)]
Correct expression from their p, accept unsimplified, no
terms omitted leading to final answer.
Condone omission of last bracket only.

0.371 B1 0.371 ⩽ p < 0.3715 .

Alternative Method for Question 4(d)

6 M1 One term 9Cx  p  x 1  p 9 x , 0  p  1, 0  x  9.

[P(X>2) = P(3,4,5,6,7,8,9) with p = ]
25
3 6 4 5 8 1 9
9  6   19   6   19   6   19   6  A1 9C3  p 3 1 p 6 + 9C4  p 4 1 p 5 + … + 9C8
C3     + 9C4     + … + 9C8     + 9C9  
 25   25   25   25   25   25   25 
 p  1 p + 9C9  p  , 0  p  1 .
8 1 9
[0.2238 + 0.1060 + … + 7.529  10 + 2.642  10 ]
–5 –6
Correct expression from their p, accept unsimplified, no
terms omitted leading to final answer.

0.371 B1 0.371 ⩽ p < 0.3715 .

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Question Answer Marks Guidance

5(a) 15.4  16.5 16.8  16.5 M1 Use of ± standardisation formula once with 16.5, 0.6 and
[P(15.4 < X < 16.8 ) =] P( Z  ) either 15.4 or 16.8 substituted.
0.6 0.6
[= P( 1.833  Z  0.5) ]

[= Φ  0.5   Φ 1.833  1  ] M1 Calculating the appropriate probability area (leading to

0.6915  0.9666 – 1 their final answer, expect > 0.5).
0.6915 – (1 – 0.9666)
or
(0.6915 – 0.5) + (0.9666 – 0.5) OE are alternatives.

= 0.658 A1 0.658 ≤ p < 0.6585 .

If A0 scored, SC B1 for 0.658 ⩽ p < 0.6585 .

[Expected number =] 0.6581  150 B1 FT FT their 4SF (or better) probability from a normal
= 98, 99 calculation.
Must be a positive single integer answer.
No approximation notation.

5(b)   17.1  18.4   B1 0.5825 < z ⩽ 0.583 or – 0.583 ⩽ z < – 0.5825 seen.
P  Z     0.72 
    M1 Use of the ± standardisation formula with 17.1, 18.4, σ
17.1  18.4 and a z-value (not 0.28, 0.72, 0.4175, 0.2358, 0.7642,
 0.583
 0.6103, 0.3897, …).
Condone continuity correct ± 0.05, not  2 ,  .

  2.23 A1 AWRT

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Question Answer Marks Guidance

5(c) [Mean = 120  0.72 =] 86.4 B1 2 24

86.4, 84 and 24 , 24.192 to at least 3SF seen, allow
[Var = 120  0.72  0.28 =] 24.192 5 125
unsimplified.
May be seen in standardisation formula.
(4.918 ⩽ σ ⩽ 4.919 implies correct variance)
Incorrect notation is penalised.

79.5  86.4 M1 Substituting their mean (not 18.4) and their positive
P(X < 80) = P( Z  ) 4.9185 into ± standardisation formula (any number for
24.192
79.5), condone their 4.9182 and √their 4.918 .

M1 Using continuity correction 79.5 or 80.5 in their

standardisation formula.

[P( Z  1. 4029) = 1− Φ 1.403 ] M1 Appropriate area Φ, from final process, must be a
probability. Expect final answer < 0.5 .
1 − 0.9196
Note: correct final answer implies this M1.

0.0804 A1 0.0803 ⩽ p ⩽ 0.0804

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Question Answer Marks Guidance

6(a) S + 4C + 2R 6C1  8C4  11C2 [= 6  70  55] = 23 100 M1 6Ce  8Cf  11Cg, with e + f + g = 7 seen.
S + 5C + 1R 6C1  8C5  11C1 [= 6  56  11]  3696
S + 6C [+ 0R] 6C1  8C6 [ 11C0][= 6  28] = 168 B1 Correct outcome/value for 1 identified scenario, accept
unsimplified, www.

M1 Add values of 3 correct scenarios.

No incorrect scenarios, no repeated scenarios.
Condone 6Ce  8Cf  11Cg, with e + f + g = 7 to identify S,
C, R.

[Total =] 26964 A1 cao

6(b) 2!  3!  4!  6 M1 2!  3!  4!  k, k an integer > 0. 1 can be implied.

=1728 A1 If A0 scored SC B1 for 1728 www.

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Question Answer Marks Guidance

6(c) Method 1

6!  7  6  5 M1 6!  k, k an integer > 0. 1 can be implied.

M1 m!
 7  n  r; 6 ⩽ m ⩽ 9; a = 1, 2; b = 1, 4;
a!  b!
1 ⩽ n, r ⩽ 6, n ≠ r.

M1 m!
 7  6  5; 6 ⩽ m ⩽ 9; a =1, 2; b = 1, 4.
a!  b!

151 200 A1 Condone 151 000.

If A0 scored SC B1 for 151 200 www.

Method 2

6!  7P3 M1 6!  k, k an integer > 0. 1 can be implied.

M1 m! m!
× 7Pq, or × 7 Cq  q ! ; 6 ≤ m ≤ 9; a =1, 2;
a!  b! a!  b!
b = 1, 4; 1 ≤ q ≤ 6.

M1 m! m!
× 7P3, or × 7 C3  3! ; 6 ≤ m ≤ 9; a =1, 2;
a!  b! a!  b!
b = 1, 4.

151 200 A1 Condone 151 000.

If A0 scored SC B1 for 151 200 www.

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Question Answer Marks Guidance

6(c) Method 3

6!  35  3! M1 6!  k, k an integer > 0. 1 can be implied.

M1 m!
 35  q!; 6 ⩽ m ⩽ 9; a =1, 2; b = 1, 4;
a!  b!
1 ⩽ q ⩽ 3.

M1 m!
 35  6; 6 ⩽ m ⩽ 9; a =1, 2; b = 1, 4.
a!  b!

151 200 A1 Condone 151 000.

If A0 scored SC B1 for 151 200 www.

Method 4

9! – 7!3! – 3P2  6!  7  6 M1 9! – 7!r! – q, r an integer > 1, q an integer ⩽ 0. 0 and 1

Or may be implied.
9! – 7!3! – 3!  7!  6
M1 s!
– 7!3! – q; s = 8, 9; a =1, 2; b = 1, 3; c = 1, 4;
[= 362 880 – 30 240 – 181 440] a !  b!  c!
q an integer ⩾ 0. 0 and 1 may be implied.

M1 s!
– 7!3! – 3P2  6!  6  7, 6 ⩽ s ⩽ 9,
a !  b!  c!
s!
or – 7!3! – 3!  7!  6, 6 ⩽ s ⩽ 9.
a !  b!  c!
a =1, 2 b = 1, 3 c = 1, 4. 1 may be implied.

151 200 A1 Condone 151 000.

If A0 scored SC B1 for 151 200 www.

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