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    InOpe - 1 - Forecasting

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    1537701
    The document proposes 4 exercises involving forecasting techniques: 1) making forecasts using simple and weighted moving averages for croissant demand, 2) forecasting demand for May using exponential smoothing with trend and linear regression, 3) forecasting quarterly demand using decomposition, 4) assessing forecast accuracy using MAD, tracking signal, MAPE and MSE based on actual and forecasted demand values.

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    InOpe - 1 - Forecasting

    Uploaded by

    1537701
    19 views2 pages
    The document proposes 4 exercises involving forecasting techniques: 1) making forecasts using simple and weighted moving averages for croissant demand, 2) forecasting demand for May using exponential smoothing with trend and linear regression, 3) forecasting quarterly demand using decomposition, 4) assessing forecast accuracy using MAD, tracking signal, MAPE and MSE based on actual and forecasted demand values.

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    The document proposes 4 exercises involving forecasting techniques: 1) making forecasts using simple and weighted moving averages for croissant demand, 2) forecasting demand for May using exponential smoothing with trend and linear regression, 3) forecasting quarterly demand using decomposition, 4) assessing forecast accuracy using MAD, tracking signal, MAPE and MSE based on actual and forecasted demand values.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    19 views2 pages

    InOpe - 1 - Forecasting

    Uploaded by

    1537701
    The document proposes 4 exercises involving forecasting techniques: 1) making forecasts using simple and weighted moving averages for croissant demand, 2) forecasting demand for May using exponential smoothing with trend and linear regression, 3) forecasting quarterly demand using decomposition, 4) assessing forecast accuracy using MAD, tracking signal, MAPE and MSE based on actual and forecasted demand values.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 2

    Proposed Exercises - Forecasting

    Exercise 1
    Deli-Croissanets markets croissants through a chain of food stores. Lately he has
    constantly suffered from overproduction due to forecast errors. The following data are
    your demand for croissants (in dozens) during the last four weeks. The croissants are
    made for the next day; For example, the production of croissants on Sunday is for
    Monday's sales, Monday's production is for Tuesday's sales, and so on. The bakery is
    closed on Saturdays, so Friday's production must meet the demand on Saturday and
    Sunday.

    4 weeks ago 3 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week

    Monday 2.200 2.400 2.300 2.400


    Tuesday 2.000 2.100 2.200 2.200
    Wednesday 2.300 2.400 2.300 2.500
    Thursday 1.800 1.900 1.800 2.000
    Friday 1.900 1.800 2.100 2.000
    Saturday (closed on saturdays)
    Sunday 2800 2700 3000 2900

    Make a forecast for this week as follows:


    a) a) For each day, use a simple moving average of four weeks.
    b) b) For each day, use a weighted moving average with weights of 0.40, 0.30, 0.20
    and 0.10 (most recent week to oldest).
    c) c) Deli-Croissanets is also planning its purchases of ingredients for bread
    production. If the demand for bread had been forecast for 22,000 breads last
    week and only 21,000 loaves were ordered, what would be the Deli-Croissanets
    forecast for this week using exponential smoothing with α = 0.10?
    d) d) Suppose that, with the forecast made in c), this week's demand actually
    reaches 22,500. What would be the new forecast for next week?

    Exercise 2
    Given the following information, make a forecast for the month of May using exponential
    smoothing with trend and linear regression.

    Month January February March April


    Demand 700 760 780 790

    For exponential smoothing with trend, suppose that the previous forecast (for April),
    including the trend (FIT) was 800 units, and the previous trend component (T) was 50
    units. Further, alfa (α) = 0,3 and delta (δ) = 0,1.

    For linear regression, use demand data from January to April to fit the regression line.
    Use the regression functions of Excel Intercept and Slope to calculate these values.
    Exercise 3
    The quarterly demand for the last two years is shown below. From these data,
    makea forecast for next year using the decomposition.

    Actual
    Trimester demand

    (t) (y)
    1 300
    2 540
    3 885
    4 580
    5 416
    6 760
    7 1.191
    8 760

    Exercise 4
    A specific forecast model was used to forecast the demand for a product. The corresponding
    forecasts and demand are shown below. It uses MAD, the tracking signaltechnique, the MAPE and
    the MSE to assess the accuracy of the forecast model.

    Period Actual Forecast


    October 700 660
    November 760 840
    December 780 750
    January 790 835
    February 850 910
    March 950 890

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