Stock Valuation Model

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COMPS ANALYSIS Company


Name
Ticker
Currency
Dividend Yield
Shares outstanding (m)
Share Price ($)
Expected Growth Rate
Market Capitalisation 0
Debt (m)
Cash (m)
Net Debt (m) 0
Enterprise Value (EV) 0
EBITDA (m)
EBIT (m)
Total Assets
Equity (Book value) (m) 0
CAPEX
Sales
Net Income
EPS NA
Current P/E NA
EV / EBITDA NA
EV / EBIT NA
EV / SALES NA
EV / (EBITDA - CAPEX) NA
P/B NA

Mean
Current P/E NA
EV / EBITDA NA
EV / EBIT NA
EV / SALES NA
EV / (EBITDA - CAPEX) NA
P/B NA

BUY > 15%


OUTPERFORM 15% > X > 5%
HOLD 5% > X > -5%
UNDERPERFORM neg 5% > X > -15%
SELL X < 15%
Comparable Valuation

g to formulas

Comparable 1 Comparable 2 Comparable 3 Comparable 4

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA

Comps Multiples Analysis

Standard Deviation Skewness Minimum Maximum


NA NA 0.0x 0.0x
NA NA 0.0x 0.0x
NA NA 0.0x 0.0x
NA NA 0.0x 0.0x
NA NA 0.0x 0.0x
NA NA 0.0x 0.0x
able Valuation

Comparable 5 Comparable 6 Comparable 7 Comparable 8

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA

Share Price Under/(Overpriced)


P/E Price NA NA
EV/EBITDA Price NA NA
EV/EBIT Price NA NA
EV/Sales Price NA NA
EV/EBITDA - CAPEX Pr NA NA
P/B Price NA NA
Recommendation
DCF Analysis
Name Google Units Millions
Ticker GOOG

Weighted Average Cost of Capital

Accrued Interest Exp 346


Total Debt 12844
Pre-Tax Cost of Debt 2.69%

Marginal Tax Rate 21%


After-tax Cost of Debt 2.13%

Short Term Debt 0


Long Term Debt 12844
Other Fixed Payments 0
Shareholder's Equity 251635
Debt to Equity Ratio 0.05

Risk Free rate 3.55% US 10-year Treasury bond yield


Market Risk Premium 5.60%
Asset Beta 0.95 Damodharan
Country Risk 0 Damodharan
Equity Beta 0.99
Cost of Equity 9.08%

Total Debt 12844


Share Price 88.8
Share Outstanding 13353
Cash and Cash Equivalents 116250
Market Capitalisation 1185746
Total Value 1198590

WACC 9.01%

Assumption
Revenue Growth 23.42% 18.30%
COGS % of Rev 43.87%
Operating Exp % of Rev 29.98%
Depreciation Growth 6.08%
Current Assets Growth 9.15% 12.46%
Current Liabilities Grw 43.16% 30.62%
CAPEx Growth -6.33%
Terminal Growth Rate 2.80%
Period End Date 3/31/2017 3/31/2018 3/31/2019
Total Revenues 110855 136819 161857
Cost of Goods Sold 45583 59549 71896
Gross Profit 65272 77270 89961
Operating Expenses 36358 44675 54033
EBITDA 28914 32595 35928
Less: D&A 6899 9029 11651
EBIT 22015 23566 24277
Less: Income Tax 4623 4949 5098
EBIAT 17392 18617 19179
Add:D&A 6899 9029 11651
CFO 24291 27646 30830

Current Assets 124,308.00 135,676.00 152,578.00


Current Liabilities 24,183.00 34,620.00 45,221.00
Net Working Capital 100,125.00 101,056.00 107,357.00
Change in Working Cap 1000.00 931 6301

CAPEX 13,184.00 25,139.00 23,548.00

Free Cash Flows 10106.85 1576.14 980.83


Terminal Value
Year
Discount Factor
Present Value of FCF
Enterprise value 1668683
DCF Implied Equity Value 1772089
DCF Implied Share Value 132.71
Market Share Price 88.71
Underpriced / Overpriced 49.60%
Safety Margin Price (30%) 92.90
Recommendation BUY

BUY > 15%


OUTPERFORM 15% > X > 5%
HOLD 5% > X > (5%)
UNDERPERFORM (5%) > X > (15%)
SELL X < (15%)

Football Field Chart

Open Low High


DCF Base Case (+- 20) $106.17 $106.17 $132.71
DCF Upside Case (+- 40) $121.54 $121.54 $202.56
DCF Downside Case (+-10) $70.22 $70.22 $78.02
52 week Range $83.45 $83.45 $152.10

$250.00

$200.00

$150.00

$100.00

$50.00

$0.00
DCF Base Case (+- 20) DCF Upside Case (+- 40) DCF Downside Case (+-10)

Other Charts

Google Search & Other 63%


Youtube Ads 13%
Google Networks 12%
Google Services Other 12%
167

12%
12%

13% 63%

Google Search & Other


Youtube Ads
Google Networks
Google Services Other
Google Search & Other
Youtube Ads
Google Networks
Google Services Other

2017 2018 2019


FCF 23,751.30 20,599.90 25,178.00
FCF % Margin 21.43% 15.06% 15.56%

60,000.00 25.00%
2017; 21.43%
2020; 19.72% 2022; 17.19%
50,000.00
20.00%
2019; 15.56%
2018; 15.06%
40,000.00
15.00%

30,000.00 2021; 19.29%

10.00%
20,000.00

5.00%
10,000.00

0.00 0.00%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

FCF FCF % Margin

2017 2018 2019


R&D Expense 16,625.00 21,419.00 26,018.00
Operating Exp 19,733.00 23,256.00 28,015.00
Op Exp % Margin 32.80% 32.65% 33.38%

45,000.00 40.00%

40,000.00 35.00%
35,000.00
30.00%
30,000.00
25.00%
25,000.00
20.00%
20,000.00
15.00%
15,000.00
10.00%
10,000.00

5,000.00 5.00%

0.00 0.00%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

R&D Expense Operating Exp Op Exp % Margin


2017 2018 2019
Capital Expenditure 13,184.00 25,139.00 23,548.00

35,000.00

30,000.00

25,000.00

20,000.00

15,000.00

10,000.00

5,000.00

0.00
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

2017 2018 2019


CapEx 13,184.00 25,139.00 23,548.00
M&A 287 1,491.00 2,515.00

19,448.00 1,972.00 4,017.00


Cash investment in Security
Share Repurchase 4,846.00 9,075.00 18,396.00

70,000.00

60,000.00

50,000.00

40,000.00

30,000.00

20,000.00

10,000.00

0.00
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
-10,000.00

-20,000.00

CapEx M&A
Cash investment in Security Share Repurchase

2017 2018 2019


Cash and Cash Equivalents 101,871.00 109,140.00 119,675.00
Total Debt 3,969.00 4,012.00 16,082.00

160,000.00

140,000.00

120,000.00

100,000.00

80,000.00

60,000.00

40,000.00

20,000.00

0.00
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Cash and Cash Equivalents Total Debt

2017 2018 2019


M&A Cash Acquisitions 287 1,491.00 2,515.00

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

2018 2019
Revenue Growth % 23.42% 18.30%

45.00%

40.00%

35.00%

30.00%

25.00%

20.00% 2021; 41.15%


45.00%

40.00%

35.00%

30.00%

25.00%

20.00% 2021; 41.15%

15.00%
2018; 23.42%
10.00% 2019; 18.30%
2020; 12.77%
5.00% 2022; 9.50%

0.00%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Sep-21 Dec-21
Q Revenues 65,118.00 75,325.00
Q Revenue Growth % 1.89% 15.67%

78,000.00

76,000.00

74,000.00

72,000.00

70,000.00

68,000.00

66,000.00

64,000.00

62,000.00

60,000.00
Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22

Q Revenues Q Revenue Growt


12.77% 41.15% 9.50% 21.03%

14.23% 7.94% -11.71% 6.41%


25.68% 13.06% 2.68% 23.04%
-5.38% 10.59% 22.86% 20.00%
Income Statement Analysi
3/31/2020 3/31/2021 3/31/2022 3/31/2023
182527 257637 282113 327331
84732 110939 123849 143607
97795 146698 158264 183724
56571 67984 79697 98135
41224 78714 78567 85590
13679 12430 15166 19913
27545 66284 63401 65676
5784 13920 13314 13792
21761 52364 50087 51884
13679 12430 15166 19913
35440 64794 65253 71798

174,296.00 188,143.00 166,109.00 176763.19938495


56,834.00 64,254.00 65,979.00 81180.5899869329
117,462.00 123,889.00 100,130.00 95582.6093980172
10105 6427 -23759 -4547

22,281.00 24,640.00 30,273.00 36327.6

3053.55 33727.36 58738.79 40017.47

1.00
0.92
36684.83

d Chart

Close
$132.71
$202.56
$78.02
$152.10

DCF Downside Case (+-10) 52 week Range

arts

Google Services 90.31%


Google Cloud 9.28%
Other Bets 0.41%
204842

Google CloudOther Bets


9% 0%

Google Services
90%

Google Services Google Cloud Other Bets


Google Services
90%

Google Services Google Cloud Other Bets

2020 2021 2022


35,997.00 49,706.30 48,502.40
19.72% 19.29% 17.19%

25.00%

2022; 17.19%

20.00%

15.00%

21; 19.29%

10.00%

5.00%

0.00%
21 2022

2020 2021 2022


27,573.00 31,562.00 37,941.00
28,998.00 36,422.00 41,756.00
30.99% 26.39% 28.25%

40.00%

35.00%

30.00%

25.00%

20.00%

15.00%

10.00%

5.00%

0.00%
21 2022

xp % Margin
2020 2021 2022
22,281.00 24,640.00 30,273.00

2021 2022

2020 2021 2022


22,281.00 24,640.00 30,273.00
738 2,618.00 7,270.00

9,822.00 8,806.00 -10,989.00

31,149.00 50,274.00 57,362.00

2021 2022

hase

2020 2021 2022


136,694.00 139,649.00 116,259.00
27,872.00 28,508.00 29,336.00

19 2020 2021 2022

uivalents Total Debt

2020 2021 2022


738 2,618.00 7,270.00

1 2022

2020 2021 2022


12.77% 41.15% 9.50%

5%
5%

2022; 9.50%

2022

Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22


68,011.00 69,685.00 69,092.00
-9.71% 2.46% -0.85%

20.00%

15.00%

10.00%

5.00%

0.00%

-5.00%

-10.00%

-15.00%
an-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22

Q Revenues Q Revenue Growth %


Income Statement Analysis
3/31/2024 3/31/2025 3/31/2026 3/31/2027
379798 440674 511307 593262
166625 193333 224321 260276
213172 247341 286986 332985
113864 132115 153291 177861
99308 115226 133695 155124
23105 26809 31106 36091
76203 88418 102590 119033
16003 18568 21544 24997
60201 69850 81046 94036
23105 26809 31106 36091
83306 96658 112151 130127

188100.757073991 200165.503537617 213004.080524286 226666.121375256


99884.6328472166 122898.095229773 151213.869246628 186053.609779599
88216.1242267747 77267.4083078434 61790.2112776585 40612.5115956568
-7366 -10949 -15477 -21178

43593.12 52311.744 62774.0928 75328.91136

47079.13 55295.40 64854.42 75976.28

2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00


0.84 0.77 0.71 0.65
39564.18 42599.02 45802.28 49188.36
3/31/2028 3/31/2029 3/31/2030 3/31/2031
688353 798685 926703 1075239
301995 350400 406564 471730
386358 448285 520139 603509
206369 239447 277827 322359
179989 208838 242312 281151
41876 48588 56376 65413
138112 160250 185935 215738
29004 33652 39046 45305
109109 126597 146889 170433
41876 48588 56376 65413
150985 175186 203265 235846

241204.442904765 256675.249587385 273138.350841897 290657.392251731


228920.441520885 281663.809738471 346559.272685798 426406.67821694
12284.0013838807 -24988.5601510865 -73420.9218439013 -135749.285965209
-28329 -37273 -48432 -62328

90394.693632 108473.6323584 130168.35883008 156202.030596096

88918.78 103984.51 121529.20 141971.88

6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00


0.59 0.54 0.50 0.46
52773.36 56575.29 60614.37 64913.38
3/31/2032
1247584
547341
700242
374028
326215
75897
250317
52567
197751
75897
273648

309300.10161582
524650.960336159
-215350.858720338
-79602

187442.436715315

165807.17
2744773.34
10.00
0.42
1219967.79

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