Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101040

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Energy Strategy Reviews

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Enabling factors for the development of mini-grid solutions in Mozambique:

A PESTLE-based analysis
Castro Antonio Soares a, b, *, Diana Shendrikova a, Giacomo Crevani a, Berino Silinto c, d,
Emanuela Colombo a
a
Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy
b
FUNAE - Fundo de Energia, Rua de Imprensa, 256 6th Floor, Maputo, Mozambique
c
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University Eduardo Mondlane, Av. de Mozambique Km 1.5, Mozambique
d
Department of Planning, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Landleven 1.9747 AD, Groningen, the Netherlands

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Handling Editor: Mark Howells Electricity is crucial for each country’s economic and social development. More than half of the population in
Sub-Saharan African (SSA) lack access to energy, which has dire consequences for the local population’s living
Keywords: conditions, as well as affecting the local economy and increasing poverty. Renewable energy-based mini-grid
Mini-grid development (REBM) systems are the promising solution to mitigate the issue of energy access in rural areas, however, the
rural electrification
expansion of renewable energy (RE) systems and the rate of energy access are both advancing at a slow pace. This
Evidence-based policymaking
study used PESTLE analysis (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental) in the context
PESTLE analysis
Enabling factors of Mozambique, a SSA country, to identify the most important categories and factors to support decision-making
Renewable energy processes by breaking down existing barriers and hurdles in the energy sector enabling them to plan and
implement measures, subdivided in primary, secondary and tertiary for the development of REBM in remote
settlements. Even though PESTLE analysis is rather often worldwide applied to the energy sector, its application
to the Sub-Saharan context is rare, while its application to the Mozambique energy sector is absent in scientific
literature. Besides, within our study, energy experts from different professional backgrounds and nationalities
have been interviewed using an online questionnaire: 62 energy experts (48 Africans, and 14 Non-African) from
14 different countries assessed the categories and factors. The experts questioned identified the political category
as the most crucial for policy-makers to prioritize, with the top three global weighting factors being, Clear
Government policies (plan, regulation, priority, strategy) 5.79%, National financial scheme for RES investments
4.93%, and cost of investment 4.86%. The findings can support policy-makers breakdown barriers in the energy
sector, planning and implementing measures for the REBM development, and contribute to achieving the SDG7
target.

to achieve SDG 7 - universal electricity access by 2030 [4] (see

Figs. 6–10).
1. Introduction Mozambique is one of the countries with the lowest rate of electri­
fication in SSA region hovering at only 38% corresponding to about 11.8
There is no country that can develop without universal access to million people, while the total population is around 31 million people
reliable, affordable, and sustainable energy. Electricity access is the [5,6]. More than 54% of the population lives below the poverty line and
cornerstone to mitigating the economy and poverty migration [1], around 70% of people live and work in rural areas in extreme poverty,
especially in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where the number of people deprived of income, education, and healthcare [7]. Such a condition is
living deprived of electricity access estimated by IEA was 580 million in reflected in the composition of the energy mix in Mozambique with
2019, compared to 610 million in 2013 [2]. Unfortunately, this positive biomass providing around 70% of the primary present energy supply
trend has been reversed in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, making [8]. In the African context, biomass is linked to the many types of
basic energy services inaccessible to nearly 100 million people who conventional fuels (dung, charcoal, firewood, agricultural residues),
already had electricity connections [2,3], thus undermining the efforts

* Corresponding author. Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini, 21056, Milano, Italy.
E-mail address: [email protected] (C.A. Soares).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2022.101040
Received 1 August 2022; Received in revised form 27 November 2022; Accepted 20 December 2022
Available online 10 January 2023
2211-467X/© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-
nc-nd/4.0/).
C.A. Soares et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101040

The scientific literature has also widely addressed the analysis of

Acronyms feasibility studies, resource assessment, and mini-grid sizing of the sys­
tems for rural electrification in SSA [27,28]. Still, context-specific
REBM Renewable energy-based mini-grids studies of the factors, enabling the deployment of REBM in SSA and
RE Renewable Energy especially in the countries, characterized by low electricity access rates,
PESTLE Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and while involving different categories of stakeholders are insufficiently
Environmental explored. The current study, focusing on Mozambique’s experiences and
SDG7 Sustainable Development Goal 7 adopting a PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technical, Legal, and
SSA Sub-Saharan Africa Environmental) analysis methodology to identify and classify the
O&M Operation & Maintenance enabling factors, is aimed at giving its contribution to filling this gap
SLR Systematic Literature Review supported by interview-based feedbacks/viewpoints of energy experts
R&D Research and Development from various/different backgrounds and nations, but with an experience
FDI Foreign Direct Investment of working in Sub-Saharan and Mozambique energy sector in particular.
GoM Government of Mozambique Overall, 62 energy experts from 14 different countries (48 Africans and
GDP Gross Domestic Product 14 non-Africans) have been surveyed and evaluated the categories and
GHG Greenhouse Gas factors using an online questionnaire.
The relevance of this study is also characterized by its practical
output and applicability, providing policy makers with instruments and
recommendations for evidence-informed policymaking based on the
which unsustainable use causes environmental and health problems [9]. results of this study. Since all difficulties cannot be tackled simulta­
Mozambique has a great potential for power generation, now dominated neously owing to technical, logistical, social, or economical restrictions,
by hydropower, which generates 81% of all electricity [8]. The country the study will assist governments and other stakeholders in determining
has 2.7 GW of built capacity, with 95% coming from the Cahora Bassa which problem to address first, especially in SSA states such as
hydropower project, 4% from solar, and 1% from bioenergy [10,11]. Mozambique. Despite being limited to Mozambique, the conclusions of
Still, the majority of rural communities are located far from the national this article have broader implications because most developing coun­
grid, they reside in remote settlements which are scattered and char­ tries in the region (SSA) confront similar energy challenges. In doing so
acterized by a low density of population and low rate of electricity this paper will address the following questions:
consumption [12,13], which often makes the electrification through
national grid economically unviable [14,15]. In general, there are three Q1. Among the categories that make up the PESTLE analysis (Political,
possible solutions to approach rural electrification, namely: Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental), which
national-grid extension, standalone systems, and mini-grids (hybrid categories should be prioritized by policymakers for the effective
mini-grids or 3rd generation mini-grid, as in Ref. [16]. Standalone sys­ development of REBM in rural areas of Mozambique?
tems are particularly suitable for very dispersed populations or single Q2. What are the most important factors that can facilitate and
households [17], representing a cost-effective option for low tiers of strengthen the deployment of REBM in Mozambique?
service, while 3rd generation mini-grids are often pointed as the
superior-quality solutions to boost local development [16,18]. 3rd Q3. What are the differences in stakeholders’ vision of the priorities
generation mini-grids are a very recent technology, characterized by and measures to adopt in order to boost the development of REBM in
specific parts for the generation, consumption, metering, and distribu­ Mozambique?
tion of electricity. Moreover, they adopt remote-controlled energy The reminder of this paper is organized as follows: in section 2 the
management systems and prepay smart meters (to reduce operating up-to-date situation in Mozambique is analyzed as far as the electrifi­
costs), are designed to inject, and receive energy from the national grid cation, access to energy, and regulatory framework are concerned. In
(to reduce investment risk), has a comprehensive set of the latest soft­ Section 3 the methodology adopted is explained, while in Section 4 the
ware and hardware technology, and facilitate efficient use of electricity results and discussion are analyzed. Section 5 will be dedicated to the
(it reduces the costs of kWh units, boosts profitability and fosters local policy recommendations, based on the research output, followed by a
economic growth) [16]. The context of Mozambique, characterized by conclusion and recommendation.
dispersed and widely suppressed demand as well as a huge renewable
power potential [19,20], could drastically benefit from electrification 2. Current renewable energy policy and regulatory framework
through renewable energy-based mini-grids (REBM). Such a solution
can face the unpredictable nature of renewable resources, being Mozambique is living in an energy paradox: the country has a
composed of solar panels, batteries, and backup diesel generators while considerable number of dams with a total electricity generation capacity
allowing for high and productive tiers of service [21]. They are reliable, of more than 2075 MW [11,29]. Nevertheless, more than 80% of the
ecologically sustainable, and more cost-effective [22], thanks to power generated is sold to neighboring countries, and less than 500 MW
declining technological costs, new business models, and hundreds of is consumed internally [29,30]. Despite the huge power generation
already identified prospective locations [16,23]. potential in the country, the lack of energy in rural areas is still acute.
Mini-grids are not a new phenomenon, since the public services have Establishing an effective energy policy and regulatory framework
owned and operated off-grid diesel generators for remote villages for would help to reduce barriers as well as stimulate and incentivize REBM
around 25 years [24]. Still, energy development is increasing in Africa at development and attract more investment in the sector. Even though
a slow pace, because of a set of barriers that are undermining the Mozambique has been using diesel mini-grids for more than two de­
development of the mini-grids in rural areas, such as: Energy policy and cades, the development of the sector, let alone REBM, is still slow due to
regulatory barriers, economic and financial barriers, technological and ineffective energy regulations that do not foresee or consider the private
human resources barriers, social and geographical barriers, [25], being sector as one of the main players having a pivotal role in the develop­
the lack of clear and effective energy policy and regulatory frameworks ment of renewable energy in rural communities [26,31].
the main barriers a [13,26]. From the literature analysis of 44 scientific From the institutional point of view, the Ministry of Mineral Re­
papers and grey literature sources, it can be concluded that the factors sources and Energy (MIREME) regulates and supervises the energy in­
responsible for the development of the mini-grids in rural areas in dustry in Mozambique. However, there are, other significant institutions
developing nations are rather well explored. within the government structure whose missions and objectives have an

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C.A. Soares et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101040

impact on the industry and the implementation of critical development and rank by importance the key factors that could help boost the
policies directly or indirectly. One such Institution is the Energy Fund development of REBM in Mozambique. Additionally, this research aims
(FUNAE), a governmental entity created under the electricity law of to support future Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) processes,
1997 (law number 21/97) to tackle the problems of rural electrification, since its final goal is to provide policy recommendations to decision-
with a mission to promote sustainable and rational access to energy that makers throughout the dimensions considered [37]. The approach is
contributes to the country’s economic and social development, while its implemented by applying an online-based survey/questionnaire devel­
vision is to become the reference institution in the distribution and oped and delivered to 62 respondents from 14 different countries,
promotion of alternative sources of energy and rural electrification [32]. selected according to their experiences in the energy field, knowledge of
The country has several legislations, laws, policies, and strategies in SSA countries’ energy sector, and with a particular focus on
the energy sector [30,33,34], such as [31,35]: Mozambique cases. Most of these respondents are associated with aca­
demic institutions, mostly (38) Mozambican and the remaining from
• Law on Electricity Act Nº 21/97 of October 1, 1997 amended by other Sub-Saharan African countries and non-African Countries as
Law 15/2011 of 10 August, adopted to create The National Council depicted in Fig. 1. A more detailed graph representing the number of
for Electricity (CNELEC) as regulators and Energy Fund (FUNAE) as respondents for each country is available in Appendix A. The energy
the main entity to promote rural electrification through renewable experts were interviewed to give their opinion on REBM development in
energies. SSA, especially for Mozambique. Within the questionnaire, the re­
• National Energy Policy (decree 5/98, of March 3, 1998) adopted spondents have been asked to provide information about the type of
for the development of energy in Mozambique. It outlines the gov­ institution they are associated with, grouped in civil society (CS), aca­
ernment’s intent to develop household energy access, competitive demic (AC), international organization (IO), private sector (PS), gov­
business, environmental technology, and energy efficiency in the ernment institutions (GI) or donors and investors (DIN).
electricity sector. In the following sections, the methodology will be further detailed,
• National Energy Sector Strategy, established by decree 24/2000 highlighting the specificities brought by the authors.
(October 3, 2000) and revised in 2009 to reflect actions and pri­
ority to implement this policy. The objectives of the strategy include 3.1. Systematic literature review (SLR)
electricity and fuel access to rural and peri-urbane areas, encour­
aging sustainable production of biofuels, and engaging in interna­ Systematic Literature Review (SLR) is a technique of investigation
tional cooperation. that uses explicit, systematic approaches to collect and synthesize in­
• The Policy on the Development of New and Renewable Energy formation from studies that address the specific subject of interest [38].
(Revolution 62/2009, 14 October) was enacted to promote clean In this case, SLR has been applied to identify the factors to be then
energy access through sustainable, efficient, and culturally sensitive included in the PESTLE analysis. The literature reviewed for this study
sources of new and renewable energies. was systematically selected taking into consideration: i) publications
• The Strategy for New and Renewable Energy Development applying PESTLE analysis for policy support in the energy field and/or in
(EDENR) 2011–2025, adopted in 2011 to develop national developing countries; ii) publications addressing factors for the devel­
renewable resources for power generation to meet the demand, opment of REBM; iii) publications addressing energy barriers and
diversifying the energy mix and preserving the environment. challenges for the development of REBM. A total number of 44 publi­
• The National Policy and Strategy for Biofuels approved in 2009, cations has been selected, spacing from scholarly articles to grey liter­
as the basis of the National Program for the Development of Biofuels ature and market reports. Then, for each of the six categories of PESTLE,
(PNDB), aims to promote and use agro-energy resources, to the five most recurring factors have been collected and synthesized for a
encourage socio-economic development, and to address the unpre­ total of 30 factors, as reported in Table 1.
dictability, instability, and volatility of fossil fuel prices in the in­
ternational market [30,33]. 3.2. PESTLE analysis
• Finally, the latest Regulation on Access to Energy in Off-Grid
Zones was established by decree 93/2021 (December 10, 2021), PESTLE analysis is a tool for analyzing and monitoring factors that
to strengthen the current legal framework for the energy sector, affect an organization or sector and can be used to plan or suggest de­
regulating supply activities for access to energy in remote settlement cisions for a project or a policy [101]. PESTLE classifies an unspecified
areas, to boost the productive use of energy for universal access, number of factors into six categories as political (P), economic (E), social
aiming to mobilize additional funding from donors and crowd in (S), technical (T), legal (L), and environmental (E). The number of fac­
private investment. tors as well as the boundaries of each category can be shaped according
to the scope of the research. The consulted articles adopting PESTLE
Despite a considerable number of policies introduced in the past analysis in Sub-Saharan African contexts mostly applied it as a con­
decades, when it comes to mini-grids in Mozambique, particularly those ceptual background for discussing each category. For instance, Zalen­
established by FUNAE, the private sector involvement remains a mirage gera et al. [94], used it to analyse the factors hampering the
[26,36], favoring a logic of public construction and Operation & development of renewable energy in Malawi; more recently, Zebra et al.
Maintenance (O&M) contracts, and a series of other barriers owing to [13], applied the PESTLE approach for macro-environment analyses
the ineffective energy laws and regulatory framework are slowing down specifically for hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs) for developing
the electrification pace. The research presented in this paper is aimed at countries, as similar to Thomas et al. [56] who employed it to assess the
contributing to filling the gap by identifying the most important di­ barriers influencing solar home system provision in Rwanda; finally,
mensions and factors for the REBM development in Mozambique to Agyekum et al. [55] examined Ghana’s renewable energy sector envi­
support an efficient and evidence-based policy-making process. ronment through PESTLE analysis. Such an approach to analysis brings
many advantages [52,55].
3. Methodology
- it provides multi-perspective and cross-sectoral knowledge of the
In this research, a combination of two approaches is applied, namely: subject of interest, identifying priorities and opportunities.
Systematic Literature Review (SLR) and Political-Economic-Social- - it allows to identification of essential elements, forces, and inter­
Technical-Legal-Environmental (PESTLE) analysis. The combination of linkages among the dimensions of investigation, also suggesting
both techniques helps to comprehensively identify, classify, categorize, targets and corresponding action plans.

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C.A. Soares et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101040

Fig. 1. Division of respondents by country and institution.

- it assists decision-makers in avoiding initiatives on irrelevant factors Agency, saying the investments in off-grid electrification are hampered
and adjusting their perception of the issue. by a lack of adequate renewable energy policy [102], and the ineffective
- it promotes the development of strategic and external thinking. political commitment, according to the World Future Council, is a key
hurdle to a renewable energy program in any country [103]. Therefore,
The comprehensive PESTLE approach here employed is based on the the necessity of strong policy support for off-grid electricity is critical
methodologies adopted in previous literature in the context of devel­ [104]. In brief, all the categories of PESTLE analysis depend on Political
oped countries [40,46,99]. Particularly, it is here applied as an inves­ will to a certain extent. This category discusses deeply political stability,
tigation framework using a questionnaire supplied to collect opinions clear government policies (plan, regulations, priority, strategy), national
from stakeholders, mainly energy experts, but belonging to different research & development innovation policies, policy incentives (tariffs,
stakeholder categories, which allowed us to identify the priorities for taxations, and subsidies), and International/bilateral relationships
different groups at a disaggregated level. The 62 respondents were asked (funding) (see Fig. 5).
first to attribute a weight (0% ÷ 100%) to each of the categories of The results of other similar studies in the renewable energy sector
PESTLE, identifying the most relevant ones for the deployment of REBM differ according to a geographical area and are characterized by the
in Mozambique. After that, each respondent assigned a weight (1 ÷ 5) to developed/developing country divide. So, in the context of developing
each of the factors in Table 2., according to the following ranking: 1 – countries political and economic factors are usually more important [40,
Less Important, 2 – Important, 3 – Fairly Important, 4 – Very Impor­ 43,55,105], generally confirming the outcomes of our study. In the
tant, 5 – Extremely Important. The results have then been collected and context of developed countries and in presence of effective energy pol­
analyzed. For sake of clarity, the steps of the PESTLE analysis process icies, other factors may gain major importance, such as environmental
adopted for the study are reported in Fig. 2. [99].
The process develops in five sequential steps: The following sections deal with an in-depth analysis of each factor
within the six categories. The discussion is made on a local weight lwi
- STEP 1: definition of categories and selection of factors from SLR basis, meaning that each i-th factor is assigned with the average value
- STEP 2: identification of stakeholders, i.e., relevant energy experts computed aggregating the six classes of respondents and normalized to
from different institutions 100% for each category. The formula is reported in eq. (1), where wi is
- STEP 3: questionnaire delivery and administration through Google the average weight of the i-th factor among all the classes j of re­
form spondents, ranging between 1 (Less Important) to 5 (Extremely Impor­
- STEP 4: each respondent rates categories and factors, implicitly tant), and computed as in eq. (2).
producing his hierarchy of factors as depicted in Fig. 3. wi
- STEP 5: the results are collected, clustered, and analyzed by the lwi∈k* category = (1)
∑
5
authors, and then turned into policy implications wi
i∈k* category

4. Results and discussion ∑

weights attributed to i − th factor by respondents of j − th class
(2)
j
wi =
In the questionnaire, energy experts and stakeholders were first total number of respondents
given to evaluate the PESTLE analysis categories (Political, Economic,
By comparing the factors on a local weight basis, it is possible to
Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental) providing the per­
highlight the most relevant ones within each category. Vice versa, the
centage weights for a total sum of 100%. Then, they were asked to order
global weight gwi comparison allows drawing overall conclusions
by the importance of the factors within each category. The weights of the
crossing different categories eq. (3).
categories have been averaged among all the classes of respondents,
obtaining the cwk* category weight associated with each category. gwi∈k* category = cwk* category * lwi∈k* category (3)
Fig. 4shows the results of the average weights of PESTLE analysis pro­
Thus, 40% of the identified factors constitute 44.7% of the global
vided by different energy experts. It is interesting to note that two
weight of the factors across the categories. This allows us to skim a set of
(Political and Economic) out of total of 6 categories are perceived by
transversal factors that experts consider the most important in REBM in
experts to cover almost half (47%) of the collective weights. According
Mozambique. Table 2 highlights this selection: political stability, clear
to the comments provided by different stakeholders, it is argued that the
government policies (plan, regulation, priority, strategy), national
most important category is the political one for many reasons, explained
financial scheme for RE systems investments, cost of investment, public
in the following section. The state’s monopoly on the energy sector or
acceptance and willingness to pay, economic capacity/ability to pay,
industry (both on and off-grid) creates considerable constraints on en­
locally available technical expertise, proper sizing, clear and transparent
ergy growth. As a result, significant sector changes are only achievable if
regulatory framework, private sector involvement and ease of doing
there is a genuine political desire and a long-term commitment to do so.
business, sustainable exploitation of natural resources and resilience to
Other respondents mentioned that to accelerate the development of
environmental risks. Tables specific to each category of respondent have
REBM, political will is required, which is critical in attracting in­
also been prepared and a comparative graph with the results is reported
vestments, new technology, private sector integration, etc. Furthermore,
in Appendix B.
all these arguments are supported by International Renewable Energy

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Table 1 Table 1 (continued )

Factors derived from SLR. Categories Key factors Reference Descriptions
Categories Key factors Reference Descriptions
69,70,83,84,
Political Political stability [31,39–63] The references from 89–91,94,95]
Clear Government [13,35,41,43, the political category Technical Locally available [13,41,46,51, This category’s
policies (plan, 46,51,52,55, were chosen while technical expertise 52,59,64,69, contents include
regulation, priority, 56,58–87] considering the 70,73–75,79, adequate mini-grid
strategy) relevant elements, 81,82,87,89, optimization,
Availability of [13,40,41,46, each with a particular 91,92,94,96, operation and
national Research & 51,52,55,56, focus, such as: clear, 97] maintenance culture,
Development 58,60,67,69, stable, and long-term Efficiency of the [41,52,60,62, and local technical
innovation policies 70,72,74,79, policies, international end-user technology 63,69,72,81, and energy expertise,
81–83,86, collaboration for 82,90,92,96, as well as the quality
88–93] innovation and 100] of end-user
Policy incentives [40–43,46,52, capacity building, and New technologies [40,41,43,46, appliances and the
(Tariffs, taxation, 55,56,58–62, incentive legislation and technology 51,52,55,56, transfer of new
subsidies) 64,70,72,75, to lure in energy transfer 58–64,67,69, technologies.
79,81–88,90, players. 70,72,73,75,
92–97] 79,81,82,82,
International/ [13,42,43,46, 84,88,90–94,
bilateral 52,55,58,64, 96,98,99]
relationships 67,69,72,75, Operation & [13,55,58–60,
(International 79,81,84,87, Maintenance 63,64,70,74,
funding) 88,90,91,93, procedure and Spare 81,83,87,88,
95,98] parts availability 90–92,94,96,
Economical General economic [41,42,46,52, The references in this 97,100]
stability 55,59–61,69, category were chosen Proper sizing [41,43,46,52,
72,81,82,84, by considering many 56,58,59,61,
88,95,99], topics, including 64,70,75,85,
National financial [13,41,46,56, macroeconomic 87,89,91–94,
scheme for RES 58,64,67,69, environmental 96,99]
investments 70,73,87, concerns, RES Legal Clear and [40–42,46,52, The legal category’s
92–94,96–98, investment strategies, Transparent 55,56,59–61, determining factors
100] high-RES investment, regulatory 63,69,73–75, taken into account
Cost of investment [13,41,43,46, and effective mini- framework 79,81,82,84, issues like a
52,55,56,58, grid development 86,90,91,94, transparent and
59,61,61–64, business models. 95,97,98,100] efficient bidding
67,69,70,72, Timely update of the [43,51,52,60, process, a strong
74,75,81,82, legislation 67,74,79,81, regulatory
85,87,90, 82,88,90,93, framework, and ease
92–94,96,97, 99] of doing business. The
99,100] Transparent bidding [41,42,46,59, management of the
Economic [40,42,43,46, procedure 63,74,75,81, energy sector,
environment 52,55,58–60, 83,84,91,92, governance, and
(interest rate, 62,67,69, 98] private sector
inflation, exchange 72–75,81,83, Private sector [41–43,55,59, involvement are
rate, GDP) 84,86–88,90, involvement and 64,70,73,74, additional topics
93,95,98,99] ease of doing 79,82,83,86, considered.
Viable business [13,41,43,51, business 90,90,92,
models 63,67,70,74, 94–96]
81–85,91–94, Clear and effective [41,43,52,55,
96,98] governance of the 56,59,60,63,
Social Public acceptance [13,43,51,55, The keywords in this energy sector & 67,69,74,75,
and willingness to 56,62–64,67, category were division of 79,81,83,84,
pay 67,73,74,82, contents like public responsibilities 84,86,87,90,
88,90,91,93, acceptance, 91,94,95,97,
94,96] capability, and 98,100]
Social background [41–43,46,51, willingness to pay. Environmental Geographical [41,46,55,79, The strategic
(cultural, religious, 52,55,56,58, Additionally, the location and 81,84,90,91, approach employed
ethnic, etc.) 63,64,69,70, content assessed in Weather 93–96] in the category was
72–75,79,81, this category to Environmental [40–43,46,52, the use of specific
82,84–88, discover relevant targets 56,60–63,67, words and topics like
90–93,95,97, references includes 69,70,73,75, climate change, GHG
98,100] the demographic 79,81,82,84, emissions,
Economic capacity/ [40,43,51,52, change, social norms, 86,90,93–95, environmental
ability to pay 58,61,62,64, and engagement of 97,98,100] resilience and
67,69,70,75, the energy players in Accountability of [13,40,41,43, awareness,
79,81,83–85, RE projects. GHG emissions and 55,56,60,62, geographical
93,94,98] other pollutants 63,74,75,79, location, natural
Demographic trends [40,46,52,55, 81–84,86,90, disasters, and
(Growth rate, 56,58–61,69, 94–96,99,100] weather to identify
density, migration) 72,74,75,79, Sustainable [13,40,41,46, relevant references.
81,84,88,90, exploitation of 52,55,56,63,
93,95,98,100] natural resources (e. 67,70,73,74,
Community [41–43,46,51, g., water basins, 79,82,90,91,
engagement 58,61,64,67, biomass, land) 94–100]
Resilience to [13,41,43,46,
environmental risks 46,52,55,
(continued on next page)

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Table 1 (continued ) foreign direct investments, otherwise avoided by the majority of

Categories Key factors Reference Descriptions multinational corporations [108].

62–64,67,69,
70,75,79,81,
4.1.2. Clear government policies (plan, regulation, priority, strategy)
84,86,88,90, Clear Government policies (plan, regulation, priority, strategy) fac­
91,93–95,97, tor was classified as extremely important with a local weight value of
99,100] 24.4%. Clear policies and regulatory frameworks are fundamental to
creating an enabling environment for the development of solutions for
energy access in SSA [109,110]. Some respondents stated that having a
4.1. Political category
clear strategic plan and setting priorities for electrification assures in­
vestors and increases the confidence level for safe investment and
4.1.1. Political stability
guarantee the return by providing guidelines and a vision on national
The second place among the factors is occupied by Political stability,
priority issues to be pursued in the short, medium, and long term.
classified as very important with a value weight of 20.5%. According to
Additionally, ad-hoc institutional and regulatory frameworks, flexible
some respondents, having political instability in the country is harmful
policy adjustment mechanisms at different stages of mini-grid devel­
to investors who need guarantees of being able to safely operate, since
opment, financing schemes, tariffs, tax regimes, and others measures to
most of the renewable energy projects are long-term commitments,
reach the strategic goals of energy access should be adopted. In fact,
many international investors decline investment requests from states,
according to ESMAP, light regulation is typically adequate as mini-grids
characterized by unpredictable occurrences and instability (corruption,
enter the market and expand. However, the government may need more
terrorism) [106]. Others emphasize political stability’s crucial role in
legislation when small grids take over their local markets to guarantee
the implementation of the policies to promote REBM use among the
high service standards at the most affordable price. Scholars agree that
rural population in the conflict areas, particularly vulnerable and unable
mini-grid projects must be part of a broader electrification strategy that
to settle in the areas chosen for electrification. For instance, the current
tackles obvious regulatory and potential challenges at both national and
armed conflict and instability issues in Cabo Delgado in Mozambique led
local levels, and effective planning tools for designing electricity plans,
to the suspension of all the development projects in the affected areas
strategy, and priority definition are essential for determining the best
[107]. One respondent stated that in all contexts, political stability is
electrification approach for various sub-national areas [111]. Therefore,
fundamental for the implementation and operation of economic and
flexible, and constantly updated policies are required to ensure the
especially social projects since they are the first to be suspended in case
resilience of the energy systems and mini-grid development and unleash
of potential risks. Besides, inward investments plummet in the event of
their potential to provide electricity to as many as 500 million people by
political tension in a region, even if the government policies are clear.
2030 [16].
So, stability becomes one of the most important variables in attracting

Table 2
From category weights (cw) to local (lw) and global (gw) weights.
CATEGORIES Category WEIGHTS KEY FACTORS Factor WEIGHTS Local WEIGHTS Global WEIGHTS
(cw) (w) (lw) (gw)

Political 24% Political stability 3.5161 20.49% 4.85%

Clear Government policies (plan, regulation, priority, strategy) 4.1935 24.44% 5.79%
Availability of national Research & Development innovation 2.8226 16.45% 3.90%
policies
Policy incentives (Tariffs, taxation, subsidies) 3.4839 20.30% 4.81%
International/bilateral relationships (International funding) 3.1452 18.33% 4.34%
Economical 23% General economic stability 3.3226 19.09% 4.45%
National financial scheme for RES investments 3.6774 21.13% 4.93%
Cost of investment 3.6290 20.85% 4.86%
Economic environment (interest rate, inflation, exchange rate, 3.4032 19.56% 4.56%
GDP)
Viable business models 3.3710 19.37% 4.52%
Social 16% Public acceptance and willingness to pay 3.6774 23.03% 3.58%
Social background (cultural, religious, ethnic, etc.) 2.0000 12.53% 1.95%
Economic capacity/ability to pay 4.0161 25.15% 3.91%
Demographic trends (Growth rate, density, migration) 2.6613 16.67% 2.59%
Community engagement 3.6129 22.63% 3.52%
Technical 15% Locally available technical expertise 3.5645 21.01% 3.10%
Efficiency of the end-user technology 2.7419 16.16% 2.39%
New technologies and technology transfer 3.0645 18.06% 2.67%
Operation & Maintenance procedure and Spare parts availability 3.5161 20.72% 3.06%
Proper sizing 4.0806 24.05% 3.55%
Legal 13% Clear and Transparent regulatory framework 4.0484 23.33% 3.20%
Timely update of the legislation 2.7869 16.06% 2.21%
Transparent bidding procedure 3.2742 18.87% 2.59%
Private sector involvement and ease of doing business 3.6774 21.19% 2.91%
Clear and effective governance of the energy sector & division of 3.5645 20.54% 2.82%
responsibilities
Environmental 9% Geographical location and Weather 3.2419 19.38% 1.73%
Environmental targets 3.0323 18.13% 1.62%
Accountability of GHG emissions and other pollutants 2.9194 17.45% 1.56%
Sustainable exploitation of natural resources (e.g., water basins, 3.9516 23.63% 2.11%
biomass, land)
Resilience to environmental risks 3.5806 21.41% 1.91%

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C.A. Soares et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101040

reaching the weight of 20.3%. The respondents state that policy in­
centives can facilitate a successful business plan and attract private in­
vestments in a virtuous loop, for the development of REBM. Incentives
are essential as private sector companies and individuals with available
funding in RE projects and research development might feel more
motivated to invest. Brookings Institution’s research shows that strong
incentives, typically in the form of feed-in tariffs and tax credits, stim­
ulated the large-scale growth of RE installations in the grid-scale solar
and wind businesses [114]. Moreover, incentivizing economic policies is
crucial to allow the implementation of tariffs that are both affordable
and able to pay back the investment and the operational expenses,
making mini-grid investments feasible [111,115]. In Mozambique, the
government has tried to create broader incentives to stimulate invest­
ment, create jobs, and promote exports [116]. However, these tax ad­
vantages and incentives are not specifically aimed at the renewable
energy industry. Therefore, the government should introduce clearer
and more specific incentives to attract private investment in the sector
[13].

4.1.5. International/bilateral relationships (international funding)

This factor, able to contribute to the creation of a favorable invest­
ment environment is directly linked to the next factor in the ranking
Fig. 2. Steps of PESTLE methodology adopted in the study. International/bilateral relationships (International funding), weighted
as important with 18.3%. Some experts interviewed claimed that
bilateral international relations enable the mobilization of money across
4.1.3. Availability of national research & development innovation policies countries through partnerships with international funders or investors,
The research and development innovation policies are one of the which is fundamental for developing countries like Mozambique, with
factors that need major consideration by the policymakers. This factor low internal investment availability. External partners funded most
scored 16.5% and was classified as less important compared to other renewable energy projects deployed in developing nations. Therefore, in
factors by the experts interviewed. Therefore, they claim that research the energy industry, little can be done without the help of foreign
and development (R&D) policies are very important and fundamental
issues for the development of RE technology in the context of
Mozambique, since despite the effort of rural electrification undertaken
in the last decade, there are still no tangible results. According to some
studies, to achieve sustainable development in developing countries, the
technical progress of energy required by the government and its tran­
sition or technological advancement of research and development
(R&D) is crucial [112], and also market knowledge, network capabil­
ities, technical expertise, and financial strengths are the primary drivers
of RE development. Therefore, Research and Development (R&D) pol­
icies, according to Martins are critical in this process for understanding
technology trends and promoting the development of renewable energy
technologies [113].

4.1.4. Policy incentives (tariffs, taxation, subsidies)

Fig. 4. Average weights of PESTLE categories, called category weights (cw).
Within this category, Policy incentives (tariffs, taxation, subsidies)
were classified by stakeholders as fairly important among other factors,

Fig. 3. The hierarchy of PESTLE factors, implicitly defined by each respondent to the questionnaire.

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C.A. Soares et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101040

Fig. 5. Local weights for factors in Political Category.

Fig. 6. Local weights for factors in Economic Category.

Fig. 7. Local weights for factors in Social Category.

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C.A. Soares et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101040

both environmental sustainability and economic progress. As for

Mozambique, according to the World Bank, from 2018 to 2020, the FDIs
have almost doubled reaching 3.19 billion dollars, demonstrating a
positive trend and a growing trust on the international scene. Through
increased overall investment and production efficiency, FDI is predicted
to have a favorable impact on both the transfer of technology and
management techniques in developing nations like Mozambique which
will result in fewer carbon emissions [118]. Hence, International/bi­
lateral relations are the cornerstone to promote (techno-economic) re­
sources for REBM development in developing countries.

4.2. Economic category

4.2.1. General economic stability

In a nutshell, economic stability enables citizens to have access to
Fig. 8. Local weights for factors in Technical Category. resources that are necessary for life, such as good housing, financial
resources, food, liveable income, and a job that pays a consistent salary,
partners. Researchers recommend strengthening special partnerships it also contributes to increasing the possibility to increase and stabilize
with nations with strong expertise in strategic sectors like technologies the income generation. According to energy experts, general economic
necessary for renewable energy [117]. International partnerships or stability was ranked the less important factor relative to the other four
foreign direct investment (FDI) are expected to play a crucial role in factors, with a weight of 19.1%. The stakeholders argue that the eco­
supporting economic development because of their positive impacts on nomic stability of a country determines the development of its energy

Fig. 9. Local weights for factors in Legal Category.

Fig. 10. Local weights for factors in Environmental Category.

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C.A. Soares et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101040

sector, and the chances of return on investment and the end user’s important by energy experts, with the weight value of 19.6%. The re­
ability to pay are greater. They also stated that little can happen without spondents posit that the economic environment is decisive, therefore,
economic stability and a financial framework for renewable energy, and motivates national and international investors to invest in the energy
this factor’s stability impacts the flow of finance partners. While sector. The major constraint is the unstable economic environment and
numerous studies argue that energy use and economic growth are excessive fluctuation in inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, GDP, and
positively correlated and the interdependence of the two is largely other factors. However, creating effective economic policies will help to
acknowledged. Some researchers advocate that economic variables must maintain a stable and attractive economic environment. According to
be considered before beginning investment to ensure financial stability Agyekum, all these indicators including currency rates have a role in
and profit potential [41]. Therefore, the government and central banks investment, especially in the renewable energy industry [55]. Therefore,
are responsible for maintaining financial stability and limiting negative private sector investment in mini-grids is hampered by a lack of clear
spill-overs by implementing large-scale fiscal stimulus programs and policies [120]. So, effective economic policy is the key to creating a
monetary expansion [3]. stable economic environment to attract partner.

4.2.2. National financial scheme for RES investments 4.2.5. Viable business models
The national financial scheme for renewable energy system invest­ Feasible business models for the system’s sustainability, and able to
ment was the factor weighted by energy experts and stakeholders as balance commercial and social objectives to accelerate the deployment
extremely important with 21.1%. Thus, they stated that to attract of mini-grids are determinants for the success or failure of the enterprise
financial investment from partners, the government plays a key role as in SSA. The weight value of this factor is 19,4% and is defined as
the main contact to ensure cooperation with international organizations important according to energy experts. It is critical to have transparent
and investors. A strong national energy strategy and an effective finance and comprehensive guidelines and regulations in case the distributing
plan are crucial components that can ensure the inflow of FDI. On the company connects to the main grid. Since each rural region has its needs
other hand, clear obstacles to funding include the absence of suitable and features and there is no one-fits-all solution, a variety of context-
energy regulations and the lack of involvement of the public and private specific viable business models is required to ensure mini-grid accep­
sectors in decision-making [13]. According to the priority plan and tance and sustainability. According to Comello and Peters, in the
diagnostic of the electricity sector, the Government of Mozambique absence of a legislative framework to manage the grid’s arrival, entre­
(GoM), in collaboration with the African Development Bank (AfDB), is preneurs refrain from investing because of the high risk [111,122]. The
aware of the need of structural reforms with the primary goal of major driver of the renewable business model is the energy price
improving the financial and operational performance of the sector to structure of the consumer and the mini-grid operator. Therefore, if the
move away from subsidies and help attract the capital needed to the cost of power is too high, the user cannot afford it, and if it is too cheap,
sector. It intends to implement this by creating a new integrated elec­ the project’s financial viability is jeopardized [55,123]. For this reason,
trification plan and updating the master plan for the electrical infra­ it is crucial to enact effective incentive regulations, a range of viable
structure. It is yet to be seen if these measures reach the set goals, but the business models, and apply a fair cost of energy to reduce investment
necessity of a clear national financial plan is recognized by the national risks.
leadership (GoM) and international institutions (AfDB), investing in the
country [11]. Therefore, it is crucial to reform energy laws to attract 4.3. Social category
investments in the energy sector to promote the development of REBM.
4.3.1. Public acceptance and willingness to pay
4.2.3. Cost of investment In the social category, public acceptance, and willingness to pay were
The cost of investment is one of the key factors that are undermining ranked as very important, with a weighted value of 23.0%. The experts
the development of renewable energy in SSA. This factor was ranked as believe that the community must be comfortable with the technology,
the second most important factor in the economic category by energy and services provided and perceive its usefulness to justify the amount
experts as very important, with a weight value of 20.9%. As the high charged. The experience in renewable energy projects shows that if the
capital cost of investment is a major challenge in poor countries, ac­ project is not accepted in the community, it is 100% likely to fail, even if
cording to the respondents an affordable investment cost in renewable you put in a lot of effort [124,125]. Energy experts believe that the
energy constitutes the main leverage, able to make renewable energy integration and involvement of the community at the beginning of the
feasible, encouraging private and public players in the sector, resulting project is crucial for the development and deployment of the system and
in a significant increase in the deployment of mini-grid systems for rural leads the community to embrace the initiative during the installation
electrification. Also, new technologies require private sector investment, and operation of the mini-grid, because the respondents mentioned that
and technology owners must transfer their expertise from other areas to if public embraces renewable energy initiatives, they are more likely to
the RE industry [119], considering the investment cost, as mini-grids are develop, with the community acceptance playing a crucial role in
thought to be high-risk, low-return investments [120]. This fact is ensuring minimal rejection during the implementation and operation of
confirmed by several international initiatives launched, focused on in­ the mini-grid. Lack of acceptability, often linked to a low level of
vestment facilitation and regulation. For instance, in awareness has a negative impact on community involvement and
Mozambique-specific initiative was approved by the Government in ownership creation among the population. Many people in
2021 [121] aimed to put in place a regulatory framework dedicated to Mozambique, for instance, still prefer energy from the main grid. Ac­
the private sector to promote the development of the REBM. Conse­ cording to Ruggiero, a community ownership strategy can mitigate local
quently, as the capital investment cost of RE is still slowly falling, it is objections in terms of community acceptance [126], while a study
important to create an appropriate mechanism to minimize and keep the developed by Jung, advocates the involvement of important stake­
investment viable. holders, such as the society at large [124]. Moreover, social accept­
ability is not just a gap, but may vary from active support to active
4.2.4. Economic environment (interest rate, inflation, exchange rate, GDP) opposition [124,125], and has a direct impact on the willingness to pay.
This factor, being an aggregated economic indicator, including Gross That’s why the integration of stakeholders including local leadership at
Domestic Product (GDP), income levels at national and per-capita levels, the early stage of the project, public acceptance can be taken for granted.
profit margins, employment rates, and the government industrial,
monetary, and fiscal policies, and not having a straight-forward 4.3.2. Social background (cultural, religious, ethnic, etc.)
connection to the mini-grid development was ranked as fairly It recorded a weight value of 12.5%, the social background was

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classified by the energy experts as less important compared to the other tendency) will exacerbate the need for localized energy generation.
factors. When it comes to renewable energy transitions, most re­ Thus, it is important to use a mixed energy generation system (on and
searchers focus on the techno-economic aspects of these systems. off-grid) considering the growth of energy demand, allowing for a better
However, without sufficient consideration of the local culture, such an balance between local production and energy consumption [62]. A
approach might be deceptive. According to Sovacool, culture necessi­ study stated that changes in consumer demographic data can have an
tates innovative research systems, as well as the participation of the impact on a country’s economy - the more numerous the working pop­
local people in the research and planning process [127], while the re­ ulation is, the greater its energy usage [55,132]. Therefore, community
spondents highlighted that Africans live by laws of their tradition, reli­ electrification is determined by the energy demand of the village, taking
gion, and culture. In traditional societies, strongly characterized by in consideration the technical solutions that satisfy the population
religious and cultural factors and influences, community representatives growth trend.
and traditional leaders need to be engaged in sensitizing about the
electrification process and mini-grid development. In SSA, where 80% of 4.3.5. Community engagement
the population cooks with solid fuels (wood, charcoal, or coal) [128], Community engagement was classified by energy experts as fairly
and a large part of the population has never experienced access to important and recorded a weight value of 22.6%. In the consulted ex­
electricity, engagement of such strategic key stakeholders as community perts’ opinion, the community must be involved in the project at all the
traditional and religious leaders may become a game changer in phases of its implementation and further maintenance. It is also
acceptability rate of the new technologies. As a positive example of such acknowledged by numerous studies, have that advocating local com­
initiatives, one can cite the engagement of 7350 traditional leaders in munities’ engagement from the start of a project can raise the con­
Nigeria to fight against COVID-19 by sensitizing, mobilizing, and sciousness of renewable energy and ensure its long-term viability and
convincing the rural population [129]. Therefore, it is crucial to emulate social acceptance [13]. In the past community involvement was given a
the successfully applied approach for common well-being. low priority, and the interactions with mini-grid consumers reveal that
more work will be needed in this area to ensure that mini-grid services
4.3.3. Economic capacity and ability to pay meet consumer expectations [83]. In addition, experts highlighted that
The highest score in this category 25.2% was given to the economic community engagement may give a substantial contribution to the
capacity and ability to pay, making it an extremely important factor in success of the energy project because it allows citizens to participate in
the social context. The interviewees believe that people’s capacity to pay awareness, ownership creation, and consumer education, leading to a
must be consistent with a successful business plan. They also believe that major level of acceptance, and willingness to pay to sensitize a com­
a robust business model will secure the long-term mini-grid viability munity of how access to energy can improve their lifestyles as well as
while increasing the chances of the consumer’s payments and contrib­ provide opportunities for income through productive use of energy. The
uting to their ability to pay their power bills. Some studies mentioned utilization of community engagement initiatives promotes the effective
that an African family has a strong desire to use electricity, even though implementation of renewable energy projects in rural areas [133].
rural households and small businesses often have little financial re­ Hence, engaging the local community in all phases of the project will
sources [111]. In Mozambique, there is a region where some consumers increase awareness, long-term viability, and social acceptance and
consider the mini-grid to be common property, and they are not always contribute to the success of RE projects.
convinced or well-informed of the necessity to pay to cover expendi­
tures. For instance, if mini-grids are powered entirely by renewable 4.4. Technical Category
energy (wind, solar or hydro), the public may believe the service should
be supplied for free. Furthermore, due to external funds, investment 4.4.1. Locally available technical expertise
expenses do not have to be collected from users for using the system, The lack of local technical expertise in the remote settlement is a
even the charging of minimal financial resources for maintenance and reality. This factor recorded a weight value 21.0% and was classified as
repair is often overlooked. In rural subsistence villages where paid work very important. The energy experts suggest that the presence of local
is the exception rather than the rule, the ability to pay operational expertise allows the implementation of the technology that, otherwise,
people may appear unnecessary [111]. It means that the capability of the system would be abandoned in a short period. Therefore, training is
the community to pay is low because many of them work in the informal necessary and advisable since it will increase the quality of energy
sector or engage in seasonal activities [130]. They have limited access to generated and ensure the system’s long-term viability [134]. They also
traditional funding channels due to a lack of regular income, a lack of highlighted that local technical expertise is vital to prevent a system
credit history, and an inability to meet funding needs, which further from taking too long to perform critical maintenance. Studies suggest
reduces their ability to pay for traditional services [120]. Thence, raising the need of combining training with the local community will help to
community awareness about O&M payment and injecting money into create local technical expertise and to generate reliable energy for the
the business model will improve the local economy and increase their village [134] and will reduce risks that affect beneficiaries’ satisfaction
income generation to pay electricity bills. [135]. Lack of technological knowledge among people participating, for
instance, might result in dirty solar panels, lowered output, decreased
4.3.4. Demographic trends (growth rate, density, migration) reliability, and poor performance [136]. Hence, the local technical skills
Demographic trends registered a weight value of 16.7%, represent­ are responsible to generate reliable energy and ensuring the operation of
ing the fourth position as an important factor in this category. In the the system during its useful lifetime.
interviewed energy experts’ point of view, the electrification of a certain
locality is determined, first and foremost, by the size of the community, 4.4.2. Efficiency of the end-user technology
demographic density, and growth prospects in the near future. For Regarding the efficiency of the end-user technology, the rural com­
instance, Mozambique has had a steady growth trend in the last 20 munities newly connected to smart mini-grids are leapfrogging the use
years, and it amounted to 2,9% in 2020 [131], in comparison to the of inefficient appliances. Still, this factor scored the local weight value of
global average of 1,1%, 63% of which is the rural population, even 16.2% and was classified as less important among other factors. The
though this trend is in decline due to the urbanization process. energy experts stressed the relevance of the satisfaction of the end-user.
Considering the continuous population growth, it is critical to creating However, end-user adaptation to technology and the use of efficient
solutions that may assist in preventing uncontrolled resources exploi­ appliances is crucial to ensure their satisfaction, as it influences accep­
tation, as well as technology that can adjust the population growth. tance, power bills, and willingness to pay for energy services at high
Thus, demographic trends (increased local population and urbanization tiers. Furthermore, most the renewable energy projects go hand in hand

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with smart and efficient technologies. According to Mert, the reduction recorded the highest weight value 23.3%. According to our respondents,
of losses in the energy system is linked to the reduction of peak load, a clear and transparent regulatory framework is the top priority, as it
increasing energy efficiency and a reduction of the cost of the service to facilitates successful mini-grids, allows for investments (both national
the final user [137]. Thus, the use of efficient appliances can reduce by and foreign), mitigates conflicts, facilitates the involvement of relevant
60% the capacity installed [16], and electricity bills, and increase the actors, and is also important for market development. As per Comello
reliability of the system in the community. and Peters, if no regulatory framework exists to govern the grid’s arrival,
entrepreneurs will avoid investing due to the risk [111,122]. The main
4.4.3. New technologies and technology transfer regulatory hurdles in the context of mini-grids are laws, rules, and legal
Technology transfer to developing countries is meant to foster the frameworks that either favor or hinder the implementation of energy
diffusion of renewable energy technologies, also included in the clean technology solutions in different sizes of these mini-grids [122]. It also
development mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol [138]. This factor was allows for the creation of a viable developer’s business model, providing
classified as important, with a weight value of 18.1%. Some interviews specific technical, quality, and process standards to the actors engaged,
highlighted that mini-grids require the advancement and arrival of new such as renewable energy agencies. Therefore, it is crucial to enact an
technology. They recommend countries adopt modern technologies that effective, and clear regulatory framework to attract investments, and
are suitable for the local context, accounting for their social acceptance. new actors, and to ensure a viable business model for the sustainability
Technology transfer for local production of renewable energy systems is of REBM.
critical to the renewable energy device take-up model, as well as price
reduction that will minimize most economic hurdles [139]. However, to 4.5.2. Timely update of the legislation
ensure the continuity of new technologies and technology transfer, The weight value of this factor is 16.1% and was classified as less
operation and maintenance, spare part availability, and proper dimen­ important. The respondents are convinced that the energy sector should
sioning must be considered [59]. Therefore, transformation and effec­ be more involved in the process of updating energy legislation, having as
tive development will not be achieved unless the technology is properly a reference the legislation of the countries, that have made significant
disseminated, and financial resources are appropriately managed [106]. progress in off-grid rural electrification. The energy laws and legislation
Whence, the new technologies, and technology transfer will ensure the must be more detailed and clearer and constantly adjusted to accom­
development of REBM if O&M, spare parts, proper sizing, and proper use pany the dynamics of the energy market, to guarantee technological and
of resources are considered. economic development and specific needs. ESMAP defends the option of
introducing laws that make more sense in each area and accommodate
4.4.4. Operation & Maintenance procedure and spare parts availability the dynamic evolution of the community, ecosystem, and development
O&M and spare parts availability assure the long-run functionality of over time [150]. Thus, the technology, economy, and development of a
the system. This factor recorded a local weight value of 20.7% and was country are dynamic processes, so it is essential to maintain legislation
classified as fairly important. The experts mentioned that as economic up to date to keep up with the trend.
conditions improve, individuals tend to consume more power, placing
greater demand on infrastructure in the long run. Therefore, on the one 4.5.3. Transparent bidding procedure
hand, this ensures the success and financial sustainability of the project, It recorded a weight value of 18.9% and was classified as an
but on the other, it burdens the facilities and leads to the need for important factor. Bids in form of fixed-amount award grants or cost-
adequate and constant technical maintenance. Studies reported some reimbursable grants represent an important leverage for renewable en­
cases where mini-grids have been properly sized but have failed to run ergy project development in general and mini-grids in particular. Energy
beyond a few years after commissioning, lacking consistent operation experts believe that having a transparent bidding process is crucial for
and maintenance [140,141]. Thence, these factors are the cornerstone giving investors a clear picture of the regulations and creating confi­
for REBM development and ensure long-term system operation. dence, as well as attracting private investments. Furthermore, excellent
procedure and transparency must be created in the auction bidding
4.4.5. Proper sizing process. The World Bank advocates the same position as the re­
This factor was ranked with the highest weight value of 24.1% and spondents, highlighting procurement based on adequate bidding docu­
classified as extremely important by energy experts. Results from the ments and an open procedure [16]. Ergo, a transparent bidding process
questionnaire mention that proper sizing is essential to avoid inefficient raises reliability and guarantees the quality standard required for the
investments (oversized systems), or energy systems insufficient to service.
enable growth (undersized systems). When economic conditions
improve, people tend to consume more power, putting additional pres­ 4.5.4. Private sector involvement and ease of doing business
sure on infrastructure in the long run. That’s why proper sizing is crucial This factor was ranked with the second-best weight value of 21.2%
for the infrastructure’s performance over its lifetime. Furthermore, the and was classified as very important by the respondents. Experts agree
performance of the system is largely determined by effective resource that the regulatory framework and the engagement of the private sector
assessment and an appropriate optimization model. Adequate sizing, are necessary preconditions for REBM development. The latest
including load demand estimation [142,143] and optimal capacity Mozambique regulatory policy mentioned above, is intended to support
installation [144,145], is reportedly critical for the long-term sustain­ the energy supply of the private sector and challenge the Mozambican
ability of the system. The process of mini-grid optimization is quite energy sector, to adapt to new technological trends, and new financial
complex and challenging, that’s why, the lack of knowledge about the models, improve relevant facts of the rural market, show competence
load conditions, electricity demand, and projected load increase might and coordination in dealing with an increasing number of associated
pan out in poor service quality and unreliable optimization. For such stakeholders [151]. The experts highlighted that the private sector is an
reason, standards for aligning sequential mini-grid sizing procedures accelerator of the national energy sector, driving development in all
have been proposed both by researchers [146,147] and public in­ economic sectors through capital investments, capable of complement­
stitutions [148,149]. ing and adjusting government action. However, the private sector’s
involvement relies on a favorable business environment, and ease of
4.5. Legal Category doing business. Zebra, with its technological expertise, defends the same
idea as the experts regarding the role of private companies in the energy
4.5.1. Clear and transparent regulatory framework sector. Therefore, its contribution is dependent on government cooper­
This factor was classified as extremely important among others and ation, which is supplied in the form of subsidies, exemptions, and lower

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taxes [13]. However, policy goals aimed at the private sector must be enhancing resilience to environmental threats, while the introduction
balanced against the social and developmental demands of the poor and spread of clean cooking can improve health conditions of the rural
community [83]. population, women, and children. Researchers believe that with rising
energy demand and growing environmental concerns, RES is developing
4.5.5. Clear and effective governance of the energy sector & division of rapidly also due to their low pollution and GHG emissions [59]. Hence,
responsibilities REBM is highly recommended to be deployed in rural areas because it
This factor recorded a weight value of 20.5% and was classified by will help to meet the energy transition and community health.
the respondents as fairly important. The primary state organizations,
ARENE, MIREME, and FUNAE, have historically been in charge of the 4.6.4. Sustainable exploitation of natural resources (e.g., water basins,
country’s energy industry, which has suffered from problems with poor biomass, land)
coordination between state actors and other market participants [151], Sustainable exploitation of natural resources scored a weight value of
aggravated by the hidden debt scandal in 2016 with the involvement of 23.6% and was ranked as extremely important. As per energy experts,
senior government officials that undermined international trust, credi­ REBM projects must be legally regulated in the context of long-term
bility, and foreign investments in the country for the years to come. resource exploitation and reasonable utilization. Basins, and biomass,
Some literature mentioned that through their influence on the level of like all other natural resources, must be utilized just enough for the
uncertainty for business, the quality of governance and political insta­ current generation while remaining sustainable so that future genera­
bility have a direct impact on the volume and character of investment in tions can benefit from them. Researchers believe that rational exploi­
a country [110]. Thence, clear, and effective governance can attract tation of renewable energy sources can determine the RE contribution to
international partners, help the country to meet the SDG7 goal, and the national energy mix and promote the deployment and wise use of
provide good living conditions for rural communities. renewables. Therefore, can also assist decision-making in renewable
energy planning by providing information on regional potentials and
4.6. Environmental Category constraints to various stakeholders, thus envisaging an energy devel­
opment vision that can promote energy development towards sustain­
4.6.1. Geographical location and weather ability and prevents losses due to energy transport over long distances
It recorded a weight value 19.4% and was classified as fairly [155]. Overall, the effectively established energy policy and laws are the
important. As per energy experts, renewable energy resource availabil­ cornerstones to guaranteeing and fostering sustainable exploitation of
ity is determined by geographical location and climate. Africa has vast natural resources.
resource potential for the majority of RES: wind, solar, hydro, and
geothermal energy and RE is becoming more affordable, thanks to 4.6.5. Resilience to environmental risks
dropping costs [152]. Mozambique has so far largely explored and put According to the questionnaire’s results, this factor was classified as
into action only its hydropower potential, which accounts for 81% of very important and registered a weight value of 21.4%. The energy
installed capacity. Still, the profile of renewable resource distribution is experts believe that resilience to environmental risks ensures the long-
not uniform and site-specific, there are places of greater and lesser term viability of deployed energy resources and infrastructure, and
occurrence, which is a key determining factor in attracting or repelling adaptation to regional natural phenomena. Mini-grids require a solid
investment in development in RE in a certain area. However, having and flexible regulatory framework to guarantee their long-term viability
adequate road access makes it easier to get to after a breakdown, while also considering their exposure to environmental challenges. The
because the road conditions and RE are extremely dependent on the mini-grid projects must be designed taking into account the effects of
local climate. Andrijanic stated that technological development and climate change and natural disasters that the region has suffered and
investment are crucial elements in increasing quality and efficiency, ensuring the resilience of the systems in the future as part of a strategic
which will result in lower emissions, improved systems, and climate prevention framework. Renewable energy technology and a stable
resilience [62]. The literature mentioned that the environmental con­ infrastructure contribute to the creation of a resilient and long-term
sequences of RE systems are highly dependent on capacity and location, energy system [156]. Therefore, the deployment of hybrid systems is
both of which impact the generation capacity of the systems [153]. advisable because tend to be more cost-effective and resilient to tech­
Therefore, effective resource assessment is crucial to determine the nological uncertainty, as well as offer more operational efficiency and a
availability of the local resources (site and weather conditions) to more stable power source [157]. Ergo, resilient power systems combine
properly define the type of technology to be employed. a variety of technological solutions with integrated planning procedures
to enable systems to supply dependable, safe, and secure energy in the
4.6.2. Environmental targets face of short-term disasters and occurrences, as well as long-term
According to the experts, the weight value of the factor was 18.1% climate change. In addition, also help to reduce GHG emissions, which
and was classified as important. Results from the questionnaire will help to offset future climate impacts [158].
demonstrate that mini-grids were designed for areas with limited access
to the national grid because they are in general, non-polluting, sus­ 5. Conclusion and recommendations
tainable during operation, and pose few threats to the environment.
Moreover, RE is a suitable solution to mitigate the problem of energy 5.1. Conclusion
access to meet the SDG7 goal. However, one of the key motivations for
the transition to sustainable energy sources is to meet climatic and This study investigates and classifies the most important factors for
environmental goals. Therefore, hybrid systems provide superior effi­ the development of REBM in Mozambique, merging two different ap­
ciency, and planning flexibility, are reliable and generate stable elec­ proaches: a systematic literature review (SLR) and a PESTLE analysis.
tricity [154], and is cost-effective compared to main-grid energy [87]. This holistic approach was necessary due to the multifacetedness of the
problem characterized by a high rate of the population living without
4.6.3. Accountability of GHG emissions and other pollutants energy access (62%), and the lack of development of REBM in
The experts classified accountability of greenhouse gas (GHG) Mozambique, despite the huge potential of RE resources available. The
emissions as less important among other factors and recorded a weight study was developed with the contribution of 62 energy experts from 14
value of 17.5%. Even though in the case of Mozambique the most different countries (48 Africans and 14 non-Africans). Experts classified
stringent priority remains access to energy, using RES decreases GHG the most important category that should be taken into consideration or
emissions, contributing to the creation of a more sustainable society and prioritized by policymakers. According to the experts’ answers, the

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C.A. Soares et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101040

classification of the categories was as follows: the Political category had Therefore, the absence of a standard model for installing mini-grids, an
the highest percentage weight of 24%, followed by the Economic cate­ ineffective plan for resource assessment, and a lack of knowledge to
gory at 23%, and Social, Technological, and Legal categories at 16%, optimize mini-grids considering demand growth over time are the root
15%, and 13% respectively, and the Environmental category had the causes of these issues. It’s crucial to develop research that considers all
lowest weight of 9%. these difficulties at once to eliminate these challenges since those who
The experts also ranked the factors that can facilitate and strengthen are in the field working in this position, like FUNAE, needs it. The cur­
the development of REBM according to their importance and urgency. rent study has indeed prescribed some factors to account for from very
The two main factors (extremely important and very important) in each different dimensions, showing that a comprehensive approach to rural
category were as follows: Political - Clear Government policies (plan, electrification planning is necessary.
regulation, priority, strategy) 24.4%, and Political instability (20.5%).
Economic - National financial scheme for RES investments (21.1%), and
Cost of investment (20.9%). Social - Economic capacity and ability to 5.3. Policy implications
pay (25.2%), and public acceptance and willingness to pay (23.0%).
Technical – Proper sizing (24.1%), and locally available technological Due to the high rate of people living without energy access in a
expertise (21.0%). Legal - Clear and Transparent regulatory framework remote settlement, and the low pace of REBM growth, it was necessary
(23.3%), and Private sector involvement and ease of doing business to identify the best strategy for analyzing and classifying PESTLE cate­
(21.2%). Environmental - Sustainable exploitation of natural resources gories and factors to promote the development of REBM for rural elec­
(e.g., water basins, biomass, land) with 23.6%, and Resilient to envi­ trification. Therefore, all the categories and factors in this study are
ronmental risks (21.4%). Among all the categories the experts priori­ important for the development of REBM. Based on the results and
tized the political as the most important category followed by economic. opinions acquired by the contribution of energy experts, we recommend
This demonstrates that the political category in the sector must be the following to government/policy-makers:
prioritized by the government (policy makers). Therefore, updating
policies, legislation, and strategies in the energy sector will promote the 5.3.1. Primary measures (P, E)
effective development of REBM and the growth of the sector. Comparing
the global weight of factors across all the categories allowed us to • Prioritize the political category by establishing effective energy
identify the key factors in the process: Clear Government policies (plan, policies and regulatory framework, as the policies are the corner­
regulation, priority, strategy) at 5.79%, National financial scheme for stone to attract investment for the development of REBM and can
RES investments 4.93%, and cost of investment 4.86%. A comprehensive enable progress on all SDGs and energy democracy, empowerment of
mapping for global weight factor comparison is reported in Annex A, the local community and local authorities can mitigate vested in­
also highlighting the different attributions by class of expert. It is terests and political interference. In particular, political instability
interesting to note that different stakeholder groups prioritized different and corruption should be addressed, while the regulatory framework
categories and factors. For example, representatives of academia should include short-; medium-; and long-term electrification ob­
emphasized the leading role of political category and clear government jectives and strategies.
policies in particular, civil society attributed major weight to the eco­ • Creation of a national financial scheme for RES investments, and
nomic category (economic capacity and willingness to pay factor), pri­ reduction of capital investment cost, as funding institutions play a
vate sector attributed major weight to the economic category (national critical role in promoting mini-grid integration in developing coun­
financial scheme for investment) while government institutions priori­ tries. The government should gain greater weight and more credi­
tized political category (political stability and clear government bility with potential financing partners and act as a guarantor for
policies). international investors. A clear roadmap and legislation should be
proposed for the cases of eventual connection to the main grid to
5.2. Limitations and future research options derisk investments, creating business opportunities and long-term
sustainability of the REBM.
The present study proposed a new methodology based on SLR and
PESTLE analysis. Even though most of the respondents are originally 5.3.2. Secondary measures (T, S, L)
from Mozambique, there is an inherent risk to disregard different social
and cultural aspects of REBM. Social aspects, within the domain of social • Promote effective, successful, and robust business model with a
theory and cultural practices, can be further investigated and integrated detailed explanation of the procedures required during project
into the methodology, since energy system change is a complex, non- planning, study, and implementation of renewable-based mini-grid
linear socio-technical transition. Energy and society are networked projects in Mozambique. It will secure the long-term mini-grid
cohesively, being co-associational and co-productive, and the method­ viability, while also providing consumers with the capacity and
ology adopted for the study does not reflect these dynamics. The cohe­ ability to pay their power bills, helping to develop the local com­
sive strength of any production-consumption system lies in its munity and improve their living conditions.
contextual grounding, requiring a deeper social and cultural investiga­ • Community involvement and community ownership model in RE
tion. The social theory was out of the scope of this study, yet PESTLE projects by promoting productive uses can mitigate local objections
analysis was able to provide a wide picture with a broad range of as­ in terms of community acceptance. The engagement of local and
pects, but without a deep focus on the causal and feedback relationships community leaders will contribute to the development of REBM in
between categories and factors. Methodological improvements could be rural communities, adding to its credibility within the village and
achieved by adopting semi-structured interviews and/or more specific attracting people from neighboring villages to invest or develop a
social research methods such as the Delphi method. business around the mini-grid.
Given the thorough study conducted to recommend to the policy­ • Prioritizing education and local technical qualification (capacity
makers, possible suggestions can also be given to future research on the building) will contribute to better and more effective resource
topic. Despite the relevant number of REBM installed in SSA, particu­ assessment, demand estimation, and proper sizing of the systems.
larly in Mozambique, most of them are not working as expected since the The lack of knowledge about the load conditions, electricity demand,
systems are either oversized or undersized, and some systems have been and projected load increase might pan out in blackouts and poor
deployed without backup. As already claimed, the disregarding of socio- service quality, unreliable supply, which will lead to a high level of
technical aspects of solutions such as REBM brings to the ineffective. disappointment and unacceptance of the technology.

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C.A. Soares et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101040

• Engagement of the private sector in RE projects by derisking the Software, Visualization, Writing original draft and editing. Giacomo
investment and guaranteeing the ROI and providing a clear and Crevani: Methodology, Investigation, Data curation, Visualization,
transparent regulatory framework will facilitate the development Writing original draft and editing, Berino Silinto: Conceptualization,
and success of REBM systems, attracting great investments, miti­ Methodology. Emanuela Colombo: Supervision, Conceptualization,
gating conflicts, facilitating the involvement of relevant actors, for Methodology, Writing review & editing.
the fulfillment of the SDG7 goal.
Declaration of competing interest
5.3.3. Tertiary measures (E)
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
• A holistic approach to the management of all available resources and interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
not only energy ones should be applied by environmental policies the work reported in this paper.
creation for sustainable exploitation of natural resources (e.g., water
basins, biomass, land). Within this common framework deployment Data availability
of resilient RE systems should be promoted to mitigate environ­
mental risks, accelerate decarbonization and ensure the future gen­ Data will be made available on request.
eration is not harmed by current electrification initiatives, and avoid
resource depletion. Acknowledgements

Credit author statement The authors would like to express their gratitude to all the energy
experts and stakeholders intervieweed who participated in the ques­
Castro Antonio Soares: Conceptualization, Methodology, Investi­ tionnaire. This study was funded by Italian Agency for Cooperation and
gation, Software, Data curation, Validation, Writing original draft and Development – (AICS), through the partinership for knowledge (PfK)
editing. Diana Shendrikova: Conceptualization, Investigation, program – Platform 3.

Appendix A

Fig. 11. Number of respondents by institutions from each country.

Appendix B

15
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16

Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101040

Fig. 12. Comparative analysis of global weights for all the factors.
C.A. Soares et al. Energy Strategy Reviews 45 (2023) 101040

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