CCN2311

FOUNDATIONS OF DATA SCIENCE

LECTURE 2
Normal Distribution and Binomial
Distribution
 Topics
1. Binomial Distribution
2. Uses of Binomial Distribution
3. Normal Distribution
4. Uses of Normal Distribution

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 2

 Bernoulli Distribution (Discrete)
Before we introduce Binomial Distribution, we will introduce a
special case called Bernoulli Distribution.
A random variable 𝑋𝑋 has a Bernoulli Distribution if 𝑋𝑋 has the
following pmf
𝑝𝑝 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑥𝑥 = 1
𝑓𝑓 𝑥𝑥 = �
1 − 𝑝𝑝 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑥𝑥 = 0
Alternatively,
𝑓𝑓 𝑥𝑥 = 𝑝𝑝 𝑥𝑥 1 − 𝑝𝑝 1−𝑥𝑥 , 𝑥𝑥 = 0,1
where 𝑝𝑝 is a fixed probability.
Typically, people call the event 𝑋𝑋 = 1 a success and 𝑋𝑋 = 0 a
failure.

CCN1028 Elementary Statistics Page 3

 Example 1
Find the mean and variance of a random variable 𝑋𝑋 if the parameter
𝑝𝑝 is equal to 0.4.
Solution:

𝜇𝜇 = 𝐸𝐸 𝑋𝑋 = 1 𝑝𝑝 + 0 1 − 𝑝𝑝 = 1 0.4 + 0 1 − 0.4 = 0.4

𝜎𝜎 2 = 𝐸𝐸 𝑋𝑋 2 − 𝜇𝜇2 = 12 0.4 + 02 1 − 0.4 − 0.42 = 0.24

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 Mean and Variance of Bernoulli
Distribution
In general, the mean, variance and standard deviation of a
Bernoulli random variable are
𝜇𝜇 = 𝑝𝑝
𝜎𝜎 2 = 𝑝𝑝 1 − 𝑝𝑝
𝜎𝜎 = 𝑝𝑝 1 − 𝑝𝑝

How to derive these

formula?

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 Applications of Bernoulli Distribution
Here are some situations that can be modelled by Bernoulli
Distribution
• Whether a sharp shooter hits the target with ONE shot
– 𝑋𝑋 = 1 if he hits the target, 𝑋𝑋 = 0 if he misses the target
• Whether a student guess the answer of ONE multiple choice
question correctly
– 𝑋𝑋 = 1 if the guess is correct, 𝑋𝑋 = 0 if the guess is wrong
• Whether a voter (i.e. ONE voter) supports a candidate in an
election
– 𝑋𝑋 = 1 if the voter supports the candidate, 𝑋𝑋 = 0 if the voter does not
support the candidate

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 Limitation of Bernoulli Distribution
It is about the behavior of one single individual (or one trial), which
limits its application.

What if we have to model the behavior of a group of people (or

multiple trials)? E.g. guessing the answers of 10 multiple choice
questions, the voting preferences of 1000 voters.

Binomial Distribution is a generalization of Bernoulli Distribution by

allowing multiple trials.

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 Binomial Distribution
If 𝑌𝑌1 , 𝑌𝑌2 , …, 𝑌𝑌𝑛𝑛 are 𝑛𝑛 independent random variables with parameter
𝑝𝑝, then 𝑋𝑋 = 𝑌𝑌1 + 𝑌𝑌2 + ⋯ + 𝑌𝑌𝑛𝑛 is a binomial random variable with
parameter 𝑛𝑛 and 𝑝𝑝. We will denote it as 𝑋𝑋~𝐵𝐵(𝑛𝑛, 𝑝𝑝).

Binomial Experiment is a probability experiment (such as a game)

that will give rise to a binomial random variable.
1. A Bernoulli (success-failure) experiment is performed 𝑛𝑛 times, where 𝑛𝑛 is a
(non-random) constant.
2. The 𝑛𝑛 Bernoulli experiments (trials) are independent.
3. The probability of success of each trial is a constant 𝑝𝑝; the probability of
failure is 𝑞𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝𝑝.
4. The random variable 𝑋𝑋 equals the number of success in the 𝑛𝑛 trials.

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 8

 Example 2
Suppose you have 10 multiple choice questions in a test. Each question has 5
choices and you are try to guess the answers at random. Let 𝑋𝑋 be the number of
correct answers out of the 10 questions.

𝑌𝑌1 , 𝑌𝑌2 , …, 𝑌𝑌𝑛𝑛 are 𝑛𝑛 independent Bernoulli random variables indicating that if you
guess the answers of the 𝑛𝑛 questions correctly. i.e. If you guess the i-th question
correctly, 𝑌𝑌𝑖𝑖 = 1, otherwise 𝑌𝑌𝑖𝑖 = 0. Here 𝑌𝑌𝑖𝑖 ’s are independent and identically
distributed Bernoulli random variables with parameter 𝑝𝑝 = 1/5.

The number of correct answers out of the 10 questions is 𝑋𝑋 = 𝑌𝑌1 + 𝑌𝑌2 + ⋯ + 𝑌𝑌𝑛𝑛 .
This random variable has a binomial distribution with parameter 𝑛𝑛 = 10 and 𝑝𝑝 =
1
, i.e. B(10,0.2)
5

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 9

 Example 3
In a survey, a sample of 20 (i.e. 𝑛𝑛 = 20) random voters are asked if they support
Candidate A in an election. Suppose 𝑋𝑋 is the total number of voters supporting
Candidate A in the sample. (Assuming that the probability for a voter to support
Candidate A is 𝑝𝑝)

The responses of the 20 voters can be represented using 𝑌𝑌1 , 𝑌𝑌2 ,…, 𝑌𝑌20 . These
random variable are independently and identically distributed Bernoulli random
variable with an unknown parameter 𝑝𝑝.

Total number of voters supporting Candidate A in the sample is 𝑋𝑋 = 𝑌𝑌1 + 𝑌𝑌2 +

⋯ + 𝑌𝑌𝑛𝑛 . 𝑋𝑋 has a binomial distribution 𝐵𝐵(20, 𝑝𝑝).

In this example, 𝑝𝑝 is unknown and typical objective of carrying out a survey is to

estimate the unknown parameter 𝑝𝑝.

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 10

 Example 4
In this question, you are asked to construct a random
variable that has a binomial distribution
Solution:

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 11

 Example 4
In this question, you are asked to construct a random
variable that has a binomial distribution
Solution:
Some possible examples are

1. Flip a coin for 10 times, the be the number of heads obtained (𝑋𝑋) has a binomial
distribution 𝐵𝐵(10,0.5).

2. Suppose the probability for a random person getting cancer in a city is 𝑝𝑝 = 0.01. Then
the number of person with cancer in a random sample of 100 people has a binomial
distribution 𝐵𝐵(100,0.01)

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 12

 Probability Mass Function of Binomial
Distribution
The probability mass function (pmf) of a binomial random
variable 𝑋𝑋~𝐵𝐵(𝑛𝑛, 𝑝𝑝) is given below

𝑛𝑛 𝑥𝑥 𝑛𝑛−𝑥𝑥
𝑓𝑓 𝑥𝑥 = 𝑃𝑃 𝑋𝑋 = 𝑥𝑥 = 𝑝𝑝 1 − 𝑝𝑝
𝑥𝑥
for 𝑥𝑥 = 0, 1, … , 𝑛𝑛

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 13

 Mean and Variance of Binomial
Distribution
If 𝑋𝑋~𝐵𝐵(𝑛𝑛, 𝑝𝑝), the mean and variance of 𝑋𝑋 are given by

𝜇𝜇 = 𝐸𝐸 𝑋𝑋 = 𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛
𝜎𝜎 2 = 𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉 𝑋𝑋 = 𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛(1 − 𝑝𝑝)

Note that the above formula can be derived from the

mean and variance of Bernoulli distribution.

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 Example 5
Suppose you have 10 multiple choice questions in a test. Each question has 5
choices and you are try to guess the answers at random. Let 𝑋𝑋 be the number of
correct answers out of the 10 questions.
Find the probabilities
1. You got exactly 2 questions correct.
2. You got 2 or more questions correct.

Solution:
𝑋𝑋~𝐵𝐵(10,0.2)
10 2 8
1. 𝑓𝑓 2 = 𝑃𝑃 𝑋𝑋 = 2 = 0.2 0.8 ≈ 0.302
2
10 0 10 10 1 9
2. 1 − 𝑓𝑓 0 + 𝑓𝑓 1 = 1 − 0.2 0.8 − 0.2 0.8 = 0.6242
0 1

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 Normal Distribution
Many variables have a “bell-shaped” histogram, i.e., the distribution
is roughly symmetric and most of the observations are concentrated
in the middle.
Example:

Source: https://www.travelstatsman.com/25072016/duty-free-discounts/

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 Normal Distribution – pdf and CDF
If a random variable 𝑋𝑋 has a normal distribution with mean 𝜇𝜇 and variance 𝜎𝜎 2 ,
we will write 𝑿𝑿~𝑵𝑵(𝝁𝝁, 𝝈𝝈𝟐𝟐 ). The pdf of normal distribution has the following form

pdf:
2
1 𝑥𝑥 − 𝜇𝜇
𝜙𝜙 𝑥𝑥 = 𝑓𝑓 𝑥𝑥 = exp − , −∞ < 𝑥𝑥 < ∞
𝜎𝜎 2𝜋𝜋 2𝜎𝜎 2
CDF:
𝑥𝑥 2
1
𝑤𝑤 − 𝜇𝜇
Φ 𝑥𝑥 = 𝐹𝐹 𝑋𝑋 = � exp − 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 , −∞ < 𝑥𝑥 < ∞
−∞ 𝜎𝜎 2𝜋𝜋 2𝜎𝜎 2

Note that the integral in 𝐹𝐹(𝑥𝑥) does not have a close form. This integral are typically
evaluated approximately by using computer. Rough approximations are provided in the so
called normal table.

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 Importance of Normal Distribution
Normal distribution is “not just another distribution”.
1. It is the limiting distribution many other distributions.
2. The limiting distribution of central limit theorem is
normal.

We will look at these topics later in this course.

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 Standard Normal Distribution

When a normal distribution has a mean of 0 and standard

deviation of 1 (i.e. 𝑁𝑁(0,1)). It is called a standard normal
distribution. The random variable is typically denoted by
using 𝒁𝒁.

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 Using Standard Normal Distribution Table
There are two main types of normal table. The one used in this
course can help you in finding the CDF for 𝑧𝑧 from 0 to 3.49 with an
increment of 0.01.
Example:
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 0.84 = 0.7995
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 1.22 = 0.8888
𝑃𝑃 0.84 < 𝑍𝑍 < 1.22 = 0.8888 − 0.7995 = 0.0893

𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < −0.63 = 1 − 0.7357 = 0.2643

𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < −2.47 = 1 − 0.9932 = 0.0068
𝑃𝑃 −2.47 < 𝑍𝑍 < −0.63 = 0.2643 − 0.0068 = 0.2575

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 Example 6
Find the following probabilities using standard normal distribution table.
1. 𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < −0.16 4. 𝑃𝑃(𝑍𝑍 > −0.22)
2. 𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 1.33 5. 𝑃𝑃(𝑍𝑍 > 2.37)
3. 𝑃𝑃 −0.16 < 𝑍𝑍 < 1.33 6. 𝑃𝑃(−0.22 < 𝑍𝑍 < 2.37)

Solution:

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 Example 6
Find the following probabilities using standard normal distribution table.
1. 𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < −0.16 4. 𝑃𝑃(𝑍𝑍 > −0.22)
2. 𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 1.33 5. 𝑃𝑃(𝑍𝑍 > 2.37)
3. 𝑃𝑃 −0.16 < 𝑍𝑍 < 1.33 6. 𝑃𝑃(−0.22 < 𝑍𝑍 < 2.37)

Solution:
1. 𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < −0.16 = 1 − 0.5636 = 0.4364
2. 𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 1.33 = 0.9082
3. 𝑃𝑃 −0.16 < 𝑍𝑍 < 1.33 = 0.9082 − 0.4364 = 0.4718
4. 𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 > −0.22 = 0.5871
5. 𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 > 2.37 = 1 − 0.9911 = 0.0089
6. 𝑃𝑃 −0.22 < 𝑍𝑍 < 2.37 = 0.5871 − 0.0089 = 0.5782

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 Percentiles of Standard Normal Distribution
The standard normal distribution can be used “in reverse” when finding
percentiles of Standard Normal Distribution. The 1 − 𝛼𝛼 100𝑡𝑡𝑡 percentile of
standard normal is denoted by 𝑧𝑧𝛼𝛼 . i.e. 𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 > 𝑧𝑧𝛼𝛼 = 𝛼𝛼
For example, 75th percentile of standard normal
distribution is denoted by 𝑧𝑧0.25 .

Area = 1 - 0.25
𝜙𝜙(𝑧𝑧) Area = 0.25
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 ≤ 𝑧𝑧0.25 = 0.75
𝑧𝑧0.25 = 0.67

𝑧𝑧0.25

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 Approximation When Looking Up
Quantiles from Normal Table
The probability you are looking for may not show up in the table
exactly.
Rule 1: Look for the probability that it closest to the value you need
Rule 2: If the value you are looking for is equally close to 2
probabilities in the table, find the z values corresponding to
the two probabilities and use the average of those two
quantiles as the final answer

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 24

 Example 7
Find 𝑧𝑧0.2236 , 𝑧𝑧0.1664 , 𝑧𝑧0.1444 and 𝑧𝑧0.0056 .

z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 𝑧𝑧0.2236 = 1 − 0.2236 0.6 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 𝑧𝑧0.2236 = 0.7764 0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852
𝑧𝑧0.2236 = 0.76 0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133

z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 𝑧𝑧0.1664 = 1 − 0.1664
0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 𝑧𝑧0.1664 = 0.8336 0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389
𝑧𝑧0.1664 = 0.97 1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621

𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 𝑧𝑧0.1444 = 1 − 0.1444 z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 𝑧𝑧0.1444 = 0.8556 1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621
𝑧𝑧0.1444 = 1.06 1.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830

𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 𝑧𝑧0.0056 = 1 − 0.0056

z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 𝑧𝑧0.0056 = 0.9944 2.4 0.9918 0.9920 0.9922 0.9925 0.9927 0.9929 0.9931 0.9932 0.9934 0.9936
2.53+2.54 2.5 0.9938 0.9940 0.9941 0.9943 0.9945 0.9946 0.9948 0.9949 0.9951 0.9952
𝑧𝑧0.0056 = 2.6 0.9953 0.9955 0.9956 0.9957 0.9959 0.9960 0.9961 0.9962 0.9963 0.9964
2
= 2.535

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 25

 Example 8
Find the quantiles 𝑧𝑧0.0194 , 𝑧𝑧0.1580 , 𝑧𝑧0.0127 and 𝑧𝑧0.75 .
Solution:

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 26

 Example 8
Find the quantiles 𝑧𝑧0.0194 , 𝑧𝑧0.1580 , 𝑧𝑧0.0127 and 𝑧𝑧0.75 .
Solution:
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 𝑧𝑧0.0194 = 1 − 0.0194 = 0.9806
𝑧𝑧0.0194 = 2.07

𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 𝑧𝑧0.1580 = 1 − 0.1580 = 0.8420

𝑧𝑧0.1580 = 1.00

𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 𝑧𝑧0.0127 = 1 − 0.0127 = 0.9873

2.23 + 2.24
𝑧𝑧0.0127 = = 2.235
2

Since normal distribution is symmetric, 𝑧𝑧0.75 = −𝑧𝑧0.25 .

𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 𝑧𝑧0.25 = 1 − 0.25 = 0.75
𝑧𝑧0.25 = 0.67
𝑧𝑧0.75 = −0.67

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 27

 Example 9a
Find the unknown 𝑤𝑤 in the following equations.
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 𝑤𝑤 = 0.6772
Solution:

𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 𝑤𝑤 = 0.6772 area=0.6772

𝑤𝑤 = 0.46 𝜙𝜙(𝑧𝑧)

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 28

 Example 9b
Find the unknown 𝑤𝑤 in the following equations.
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 > 𝑤𝑤 = 0.2877
Solution:

𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 > 𝑤𝑤 = 0.2877
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 𝑤𝑤 = 1 − 0.2877 𝜙𝜙(𝑧𝑧) area=0.2877
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 𝑤𝑤 = 0.7123
𝑤𝑤 = 0.56
w

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 29

 Example 9c
Find the unknown 𝑤𝑤 in the following equations.
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 𝑤𝑤 = 0.3897
Solution:
area=0.3897
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < 𝑤𝑤 = 0.3897
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < −𝑤𝑤 = 1 − 0.3897 𝜙𝜙(𝑧𝑧)
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < −𝑤𝑤 = 0.6103
−𝑤𝑤 = 0.28
𝑤𝑤 = −0.28 w

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 30

 Example 9d
Find the unknown 𝑤𝑤 in the following equations.
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 > 𝑤𝑤 = 0.8461
Solution:
area=0.8461
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 > 𝑤𝑤 = 0.8461
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < −𝑤𝑤 = 0.8461 𝜙𝜙(𝑧𝑧)
−𝑤𝑤 = 1.02
𝑤𝑤 = −1.02
w

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 31

 Transformation to Standard Normal
Distribution
The normal table introduced earlier only applies to standard normal
distribution. If we need to tackle a problem about a non-standard
normal distribution, we will need the following transformation.
𝑋𝑋−𝜇𝜇
If 𝑋𝑋~𝑁𝑁(𝜇𝜇, 𝜎𝜎 2 ) and 𝑍𝑍 = , then 𝑍𝑍~𝑁𝑁(0,1).
𝜎𝜎
𝑍𝑍~𝑁𝑁(0,1) 𝑋𝑋~𝑁𝑁(10,25)

area=0.8413 area=0.8413

z x

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 32

 Example 10a
If the exam score of students in a test is normally distributed with
mean 55 and a standard deviation of 5. Find the probability that a
student got a score over 67.

Solution:
Let 𝑋𝑋 be the exam score of a student.

𝑃𝑃 𝑋𝑋 > 67
𝑋𝑋 − 55 67 − 55
= 𝑃𝑃 >
5 5
= 𝑃𝑃(𝑍𝑍 > 2.4)
= 1 − 0.9918
= 0.0082

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 33

 Example 10b
(Continue on with example 10a)
Find the probability that a student got less than 46 in the test.
Find the probability that a student got less than 46 in the test.
Solution:

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 34

 Example 10b
(Continue on with example 10a)
Find the probability that a student got less than 46 in the test.
Solution:

𝑃𝑃 𝑋𝑋 < 46
𝑋𝑋 − 55 46 − 55
= 𝑃𝑃 <
5 5
= 𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < −1.8
= 𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 > 1.8
= 1 − 0.9641
= 0.0359

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 35

 Example 10c
(Continue on with example 10a)
Find the 70th percentile of the test score.
Solution:
Let 𝑤𝑤 be the 70th percentile.
𝑃𝑃 𝑋𝑋 < 𝑤𝑤 = 0.7
𝑋𝑋 − 𝜇𝜇 𝑤𝑤 − 55
𝑃𝑃 < = 0.7
𝜎𝜎 5
𝑤𝑤 − 55
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < = 0.7
5
𝑤𝑤 − 55
= 0.52
5
𝑤𝑤 = 57.6
CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 36
 Example 10d
(Continue on with example 10a)
Find 10th percentile of the test score.
Solution:

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 37

 Example 10d
(Continue on with example 10a)
Find 10th percentile of the test score.
Solution:
Let 𝑤𝑤 be the 10th percentile.
𝑃𝑃 𝑋𝑋 < 𝑤𝑤 = 0.1
𝑋𝑋 − 𝜇𝜇 𝑤𝑤 − 55
𝑃𝑃 < = 0.1
𝜎𝜎 5
𝑤𝑤 − 55
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < = 0.1
5
𝑤𝑤 − 55
𝑃𝑃 𝑍𝑍 < − = 1 − 0.1 = 0.9
5
𝑤𝑤 − 55
− = 1.28
5
𝑤𝑤 = 48.6

CCN2311 Foundations of Data Science Page 38