In Memory of Imre Lakatos
In Memory of Imre Lakatos
In Memory of Imre Lakatos
University o] Kiel
Introduction
Our age is called the scientific and technical age. By that we mean that
science plays a dominating role nowadays and almost everything is in-
fluenced by it for this reason. The position of science can be compared with
the position of theology in the past, however strange this may seem to us
at first. In the same way as theology once penetrated life and made people
understand, interpret and solve everything by means of theology, the
sciences of today are considered to be capable of everything. The voice of
scientists will not be ignored in any kind of problem. Today people ask
scientists before inaugurating a big event; in earlier time it was the church
that was asked to bless the plan. Both in public and private affairs they are
asked for their advice, even if they are occupied with rather controversial
subjects such as sociology, political science, and futurology. Fantastic
amounts of money are spent on science and scientific programs comparable
with the costs which were spent on the building of cathedrals in earlier
times. And in the same way as in the past nobody thought he could be saved
without theological instruction, people nowadays believe nobody can reach
happiness without having received a university education.
What is the origin of this supreme importance of science ? The supreme
role of science is based on the opinion which originated in the age of the
Enlightenment that science alone can open up the way to the real truth.
According to this opinion science has in this or that case already reached the
absolute truth, or has at least gotten closer and closer to the truth. The
picture of reality created by the sciences is becoming more and more exact
and intensive all the time. Their statements and theories are justified either
by objective facts or by necessarily true principles, and they are constantly
being examined by them.
It is not important here that some, being dependent upon empiricism,
put more weight on facts, and that some, being rationalists, emphasize
principles more. In the end empiricism and rationalism have contributed
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equally to the scientific optimism which has always been the motive power
for the immense changes which have taken place in the world since the
time of the Enlightenment. I even believe that this optimism is still in-
creasing greatly.
Nevertheless it is based on an illusion and is under the spell of a myth :
the myth of science.
There are neither absolute facts nor absolutely true principles on which
scientific statements and theories could be based or by which they could
be justified in a cogent way. On the contrary, in science, principles and
propositions about facts are only parts of theories. They are given, selected,
and valid within their frame of reference only, and consequently they are
dependent on it. This is true of all empirical sciences, the natural sciences
as well as the historical. 1
The situation today is even worse, however, for the myth of science.
Scientific facts, unavoidably dependent on theories, will change as soon as
the theories change. For this reason it is wrong to assume that science con-
tinuously and necessarily improves its knowledge about the same subjects in
the course of its development. We must not be confused by the fact that
very often the same words are used when one theory is replaced by another.
Thus we meet the same words everywhere in present-day physics; words such
as mass, momentum, velocity, time, or space. But strangly enough they often
mean something different depending on the theoretical context in which
we use them. For example, we could use them in the context of Cartesian
physics, Newtonian physics, or the physics of Einstein, etc.
Therefore in science new facts never appear just by themselves. They
will only be discovered in light of a new theory (which must pre-exist them).
It would be in vain to try to simply add new facts to the present knowl-
edge of science. They will first have to be put into the changed context
which created them. The facts already known, however, will partly be in-
terpreted in a new way, partly they will be excluded, or they will even be
declared an illusion. Let us think, for example, of the rise of mechanics in
the seventeenth century. After the basic idea had been created, a great
number of new discoveries in the field of the laws of motion were made.
The facts which had been interpreted more biologically with the Aristotelian
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method were now considered in a very different way. Everything was seen
from the point of view of mechanics. Natural life, which once had been
the center of scientific research, remained almost without attention during
that time. "Animalia sunt automata" said Descartes categorically, and with
these words he concealed the special scientific problems of natural life.
In my opinion, this example makes it clear that new discoveries and
ideas in science cannot always be considered to be an extension, improve-
ment, or enrichment of the old. Often the appearence of new discoveries
and ideas is (somehow) comparable to the rise of a completely new interpre-
tation of the world, a world of partly different, partly enlarged, or partly
limited contents. Let me sum up these thoughts once more. The empirical-ra-
tionalist optimism about science is based on a myth for the following reasons:
1. There are no absolute facts, nor absolute principles, on which the sciences
could be based. 2. Science does not offer a constantly improved and enlarged
picture of the same subjects and the same empirical contents. 3. In the
course of its history science does not approach an absolute truth, free of
any theories.
Naturally, I realize how briefly I have explained these theses here. I have,
however, already tried to explain them in a more extensive way on other
occasions, :~ and I may hope to find some consensus with the supposed con-
sequences of such theories. People ask: "Haven't we lost everything, if
neither experience nor reason are final and irrevocable instances deciding
like a supreme court on scientific statements and theories ? Can science be
justified at all in any way other than rationalistically or empirically ?
Wouldn't it become somehow enigmatic, mystic, and irrational ? Would it
not disintegrate into total arbitrariness ? Would it not be made wide open
to relativism and scepticism ? Would we not have to bury all hope of
scientific progress ?"
I will now try to do something, which may appear paradoxical; to cast out
devils by Beelzebub. I will try to show that these dangers conjured up will
disappear in the moment in which we see the sciences in their radical histori-
dry.
To prove this I maintain first of all that, although science is based on
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facts and principles, neither of these are absolute - - this would be the em-
pirical rationalist opinion - - but rather they are determined by a certain
historical situation. This situation then decides about the scientific facts and
principles and not vice versa.
In an attempt to clarify this, I will first define the term "Historical
situation" with the help of two historical scientific categories, which I want
to call "historic system ''a and "historical system set." The category "historic
system" deals with the structure of historical processes in general and not
just with the scientific ones. Such processes are based partly on natural
laws (psychological, physica[, etc.), partly, however, according to rules man
has created.
I want to concentrate on these rules.
There are as many rules of this kind as there are spheres of life. Think of
the rules of daily life, the rules of custom or the various relationships people
have to each other. Think of the rules we follow in the world of business,
economics, public affairs, or the rules of art, music, religion, and last but
not least, of the rules of language.
On the one hand such rules arose through historical development and are
therefore also subject to changes in history. On the other hand, they si-
multaneously give our lives a systematic constitution. So I want to speak of
historical rule systems, referred to below just as "systems." They do not
satisfy certain ideals of exactness and completeness; it is mostly true, how-
ever, that they are as exact as is necessary in order to be applicable in
situations for which they are intended. Contrary to wide spread opinion, I
therefore believe that our nonscientific normal life also has a certain formal
rationality and logic insofar as it takes place within such systems.
The second historical scientific category mentioned - - called "historical
system set" - - I want to define as a structured set of partly contemporary,
partly traditiona!, systems related to each other in many different ways, with-
in the frame of which a human community lives at a given time. Scientific
systems - - and these are theories and hierarchies of theories, as well as the
rules of scientific work - - are therefore part of this total set of systems,
which is the world of rules in which we live and work all the time.
The relations of the elements of this set to each other can be those of
practical motivation; for example, one system can be morally judged, sup-
ported, or rejected by another. Think of the method used in the past for
correcting theoretical scientific statements with the help of theological or
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established all this we have to face the question which inevitably arises.
What does scientific progress mean ?
First of all, we see that the development of science is largely caused by
disharmony within individual sets of systems and by internal change in such
sets. I will try again to clarify this by giving an example. Consider the
system set of the Renaissance. It contains, among other things, a certain
emancipatory humanism, certain doctrines of theology, Ptolemaic astronomy,
and Aristotelian physics. This humanism contradicts Ptolemaic astronomy,
which itself is closely connected with the theology of the time. The contra-
diction was solved by Copernicus through a change in astronomy, and this
was to the advantage of humanism. Through this, however, a new contra-
diction appeared, namely that between the new astronomy and the physics
of Aristotle which had remained unchanged. Thus attempts were also made
to solve this problem. When with Newton this attempt was finally completed,
not only had Aristotle been given up, but also Copernicus. 8 The changed
scenery of natural science now had its feedback effect on humanism and
theology. In the end, everything had changed; astronomy, physics, humanism,
theology, and also, and this must be given particular emphasis, the facts and
principles connected with them. The result was an entirely new system set
and an entirely changed historical situation.
This example not only demonstrates that the term "system set" is very
suitable for collecting, sorting out, and putting into order developments of
the kind mentioned above, but it also confirms the opinion expressed earlier
that such developments have their origins in disharmonies. Just as any
other, the Renaissance system set had its flaw, and the attempt was made to
remove it. The example, however, also demonstrates something else which is
no less remarkable. It in fact shows that this "catharsis" was only reached
with the help of the available means; that is, with those means provided by
the system set. Solutions are sought within the given situation, which only
changes of its own accord. This is exactly what I mean when I speak of
an internal change in the system set. For what did people do ? They accepted
one part of the set and tried to adapt the other elements to this part.
Criticism and creative change were based on something already existing
historically. Finally, we can settle here a last and very typical point. In the
example mentioned above those parts of the system set survived which
strongly contradicted the facts combined with them, while those parts of
the system vanished which seemed to harmonize much better with the facts
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seen in their own right. Thus, for example, the rotation of the earth re-
mained an unsettled problem as long as no law of inertia existed and as long
as the physics invented ad hoc to save the Copernican theory remained back-
ward in comparison to Aristotelian physics. The reason for the change here
is not the discovery of new facts, it is rather the internal disharmony of
the system set. In order to sum up my thoughts once more, I wish to ex-
press them metaphorically: the movement of science is mainly the self-
movement of system sets.
This metaphor has nothing to do with Hegel's philosophy, even if this
might seem to be the case at first sight. A few indications may suffice to
show this. The disharmonies of which I speak and the processes they bring
about are not dialectical. Thus, for example, the emancipatory humanism of
the Renaissance, on the one hand, and Ptolemaic astronomy, on the other
hand, are not opposed to each other as Thesis and Antithesis in Hegel's
sense, since the one did not of necessity produce the other. Systems are
usually not perfectly exact and clear, and, therefore, their disharmonies
and their possible solutions cannot be rationally given with strict necessity.
Scientific systems are no exception here, since their difference from other
systems is, with regard to their exactness, only one of degree. The reason
for this is by no means just carelessness. On the contrary, we usually avoid
formal perfection because it easily leads to sterility and to a lack of flexi-
bility in connection with constantly changing situations. Thus, if we try to
adapt any system to new situations we will generally not be able to decide
in a necessary manner and without any other alternative how to do, so.
Consequently there will always be ranges of possibilities, and neither the
disharmonies nor their solutions will be strictly determined in a unique way.
Hegel's dialectic, however, consists of a process, the necessity, strictness, and
exactness of which is claimed to be in no way inferior to that of formal
logic, most particularly because it is consecrated by the Weltgeist. I can
detect nothing of this kind in historical events. Thus, in opposition to Hegel,
I stress the contingency in history.
This contingency concerns, on the one hand, the spontaneous acts which
transform the vagueness mentioned above into more or less clear contra-
dictions, or into their solutions, in the course of practice. I call them
"spontaneous" because nothing can force us to do this transformation in
just one way. On the other hand, everything is also contingent which is em-
pirical. The empirical has by no means been eliminated here, even if it has
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been pointed out that facts are dependent on theories. On the contrary, every
system set delivers a totality of possibilities of communicating with reality,
or, to put it in Kantian terms, it delivers "the conditions of the possibilities"
of having experience at all. These conditions may change historically - - and
this is the difference from Kant - - but ho~v, the reality will appear under the
special conditions of a given system set we can never necessarily foresee, and
consequently it is as contingent as the reaction to it within the same system
set?
I shall add some remarks concerning the opinion that historical processes
are determined by nature; that is, by psychological, biological, physical and
other laws. In this connection people usually refer to emotions which have
at any time determined human beings; emotions such as love, hatred,
thirst for revenge, vanity, etc. There are also references to instincts such as
hunger, thirst, sexuality, etc., as well as to the conditions of climate, geog-
raphy, and similar things. It can be gathered from what I have already said
concerning the role of experience that the self-movement of system sets
does not exclude the influence and effectiveness of such permanent and
therefore nonhistorical natural conditions. On the other hand, it seems to
me that they too can be effective only in the frame of a system set and that
only there can we find the necessary conditions and contents for them.
Thus, for example, the sensual desire of Salome to seduce John the
Baptist is completely mixed up with Jewish, pre-Christian, metaphysics. Or
let us consider homosexuality in ancient Athens. This shows very clearly
how even sexuality is determined by cultural ideas. We never can abstract
Werther's love from the sentimentality of the Storm and Stress movement in
German literature of the eightheenth century, and the love between Tristan
and Isolde can only be understood in connection first with medieval mys-
tidsm, and later, in Wagner's interpretation, with Schopenhauer's mysticism.
To be sure, the pistol shot of an assassin is a physical process, but no Brutus
could have done it; and no Roman could become psychologically tired from
driving for too long a time on the highway.
After these preparatory remarks, I wish to state the following laws re-
garding the structure of historical processes.
1. Each historical period is determined by a system set.
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The structural laws just mentioned do indeed say something about the
constant internal change of system sets, but the question about progress and
relativism in science is not yet answered by this.
I will first turn my attention to relativism. Relativism means that only
accidents, arbitrariness, or a sort of historical destiny decide what is true
or false, what is good or bad. If we regard the structural laws I have al-
ready enumerated we will see that nothing of that kind could necessarily
by concluded therefrom.
First of all, criteria are found within systems for what is true or false,
good or bad. Within systems, decisions can be made about truth and un-
truth, etc. More than this, systems as a whole, and their mutations, can
be rationally accounted for in a historical situation. Let us try the following
example.
If space is Euclidean and if it is established what observation, facts, con-
firmation, and falsification mean, then under certain conditions we will have
the experience that space is filled with gravitational forces, and through this
experience we will discover this truth. Historically these presuppositions
were given neither arbitrarily nor by fatalism, but they were logically
justified by widespread rationalism and its principles during the time of
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At the very beginning I said that there is no absolute truth which we are
approaching more and more closely. There is no absolute truth because
there are no absolute facts or absolutely valid principles which could guide
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7. The Explication and the mutation of systems. Progress I and Progress II.
What can progress in science possibly mean with regard to the structural
laws mentioned above ? Obviously, we can differentiate between two basic
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this question, it is useful to turn to the term "Progress II," which has to
be based on a mutation.
A mutation, for the same reasons as those given for an explication, will
not be considered progressive just by its existence. No one will seriously
consider arbitrariness, the loye of novelty, pomposity, or even insanity as
the only sources of change. This would be completely inadequate. From
whence could we take rational arguments for a mutation but from the
given system set ? I repeat : there are no eternal ideas beyond the system
set where we could find criteria for progress. If this is true, if we have
to remain in a given set of systems, and if there is no way out of it, if our
only chance is to change it by changing its elements, such a change will
be rational only if it improves the harmony of the elements within this
system set. This means that a mutation can only be considered progressive
insofar as it contributes first to the elimination of contradiction, secondly to
the elimination of obscurities, and thirdly to the construction of coherent
connections which are as comprehensive as possible. These contributions I
call the harmonizing of a system set.
Again we take the theory or relativity as an excellent example. When
Einstein decided to attempt a mutation with it - - at first with the Special
Theory of Relativity - - he had intended to reconcile the Maxwell theory
of light with a main principle of classical physics; namely, the principle that
all inertial systems are of the same importance. Later on, however, when it
became obvious that this reconciliation could only take place if the law of
gravity remained excluded from it, he completed a second system mutation
which finally led to the general theory of relativity. He himself maintained
emphatically that his guiding principle was the idea of harmony in this
world. Less speculatively, I would say that in reality he was determined by
the idea of the harmony of the scientific system within the given system set.
After this discussion, we can now also answer the question mentioned
before as to the kind of function and significance a system must have, if
its explication is to be considered as "Progress I." It must contribute to the
removal of disharmonies within the system set in the same way as the
mutation by which it was produced. Once more the theory of relativity may
serve as an example, since its ability to bring various phenomena and
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immense changes which finally deeply affected even sacred structures such
as those of the German Reich. In this age we can observe the beginning of
the secularization of the states. The printing press and the rise of the
commoners destroyed old hierarchies and privileges, and strengthened a new
individualism. All these emancipatory movements led finally to the idea
that the divine creation and consequently the construction of the celestial
universe, too, shollld be understandable to human reason.
Thus, on the one hand, there was a more or less coherent, more or less
harmonious, variety of systems, and, on the other hand, this variety was
opposed to different systems which seemed to be more and more contra-
dictory in themselves. In this situation Copernicus' decision, favorable as it
was to Renaissance Humanism, is comprehensible, and it is comprehensible
that his own discrepancies did not disturb him very much. His opponents
were progressive, too, inasmuch as they brought these discrepancies to light.
Consequently, it is wrong when people usually maintain that the church,
which fought against Copernicus so strongly, was merely reactionary.
The aim of harmonizing a system set cannot, however, be confined only
to progress in science. A system set comprehends much more than this.
Therefore, we can say in general that progress as such, wherever it may
occur, in science or elsewhere, will not be directed towards a goal outside
history, to an eschaton, for instance, because nothing of that kind exists.
Nor will it consist of a radical change, a creation of something absolutely
new. For a change which does not somehow involve bringing into harmony
something which already exists will end in the madness of idiosyncrasy.
Progress may certainly contain disharmony, disagreement, challenge, con-
tradictions, and problems. Real progress, however, will only be achieved
if such disharmonies and disagreement are the price to be paid for a much
larger and much more important agreement of the system set within itself.
There is something else which I wish to say. Progress, as I understand it,
is not just confined to a so-called progressive age, as the common notion
would have it. To believe that would be to show narrow-mindedness and a
lack of historical sense. Every historical system set is capable of harmonizing,
and each is, of course, also capable of spoiling itself by making the dis-
harmonies already in existence hopelessly bigger and bigger. The course of
history demonstrates both processes in many examples.~ Progress I and
Progess II are normative standards of measurement. By using them we can
determine the value of explications or mutations.
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final result. We cannot say that the second and later system set contains
more truth than the one before, even if all the mutations that produced the
new system set were produced in a very rational and progressive way, which
is not always the case. Progress II can only provide a short time of happiness,
just as any time of happiness will only be a short one. I hardly need to
mention Progress I, which leads to a standstill in the long run and which
furthermore will be brought to an end by a mutation in any case. Progress
II primarily means finding temporary relief before being confronted again
with new and different problems. 15
10. Conclusion
NOTES
1 The reader will notice that I deal first with scientific facts, later with scientific sentences
about facts. If the latter are dependent upon theories, however, then the former cannot be
a n y t h i n g absolute either. For the content of the fact can be given scientifically only by a
sentence about it. In saying, "'this electric current has a voltage of zoo," I want to express
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a fact. Therefore, if this sentence is dependent on theories, which it is, then this is also the
case regardng the fact which it expresses.
2 Cf. also K. Htibner, "Theorie und Empiric," in : Philosophia Naturalis X (1968); " D u h e m s
historische Wissenschaftstheorie und ihre gegenw~rtige Weiterentwicklung," in : 9- Deutscher
Kongress ffir Philosophic DF~sseldorf 1969, ed. Ludwig Landgrebe, Meisenheim am Glan 1972;
and in Fhilosophia Naturalis XIII (I97x); "Von der Bedeutung der Geistesgeschichte ftir Grund-
legungen in der P h y s i k " i n : Akten des XIV. InternationaIen Kangresses fiAr Philosophic,
Wien x968; " U b e r die Philosophie der Wirklichkeit in der Quantenmechanik," in Philoso-
phia Naturalis XIV (x975). I am citing here mostly my own publications only because I have
to confine myself in this rather short article to my own point of view. (Cf. Footnote x~.) I
will discuss other standpoints in later publications.
3 I introduced the concept "historical s y s t e m " for the first time in my article "Philosopkische
Fragen der Zukunftsforschung" in Sfudlum Generale 0-4 (~97~); of. also my article on " W a s
sind und Was bedeuten Theorien in Natur und Geschichtswissenschaften ?" ed. by the Greek
Humanistic Society, Athens x975, and i n : Natur und Geschichte, xo. Deutsc'her Kongress fi2r
Philosophic z97a, ed. Hfibner and Menne, H a m b u r g ~974, Meiner.
4 Cf. also K. Hilbner, " W a s zeigt Keplers "Astronomia Nova' der modernen Wissenschafts-
theorie ?" in Philosophia Naturalls XI (~969).
s. K. Htibner, " U b e r die Philosophie der Wirklichkeit in der Quantenmechanikr" in Philo-
sopha Naturalis XIV (x973).
6 W.P. Webh, "The Historical Seminar, Its Outer Shell and Its Inner Spirit" in Mississippi
Valley Historical Review 4z, x955/56.
7 Cf. Also K. H/.ibner, "'Was sind "and was bedenten Theorien in Natur und Geschichtswissen-
schaften ?", see footnote 7.
8 For an extensive explanation of the contradiction between Renaissance H u m a n i s m and
Ptolemaic astronomy and Copernicus" attempt to solve it, see H. Blumenberg, Die Kopernika-
nische Wende, Frankfurt x965. K. Hfibner, " W a s zeigt Keplers' "Astronomia Nova' der moderuen
Wissenschaftstheorie und ihre gegenw~rtige Weiterentwicklung," see footnote 2.
9 I have discussed the role of experience more extensively in "Theorie und Empirie" (see
footnote 2). After having distinguished my standpoint from that of Hegel, I shall now add
some comments on Marx. Marx tries to understand all historical processes as being basically
dependent upon the so-called productive powers. This would mean that the starting point
of every change is always exactly the same part of the system set. Marx has, however, extrap-
olated a partly correct description of the system set in a particular epoch, that of the first
industrial revolution, to the whole of history, which is a completely nonhistorical monism.
10 The senselessness of absolute propositions about space follows from the fact that
all the results of the measurements on which they are based, can always be interpreted
either as reflecting the geometry of space or as being influenced by the physical conditions
under which they took place. For example, in antiquity the ideas about space resulting from
Aristotelian philosophy and physics obviously could not be identified with those of Euclidian
geometry. Descartes, on the other hand, deduced his physics from the presupposition that
space is Euclidian, a presupposition which again was rooted, as I have mentioned already, in
his rationalism. Einstein, finally, in introducing Riemannian space into physics, ~tarted from
the principle of the equality of all inertial systems and not from geometry. Thus, by studying
the main turning points in the interpretation of space during the history of science we can
observe with particular clarity how presuppositions render certain decisions on truth or
falsehood possible at all, and how the horizons in which decisions can take place are
changed, and indeed changed by reasonable arguments and certainIy not by pure arbitrariness.
As I have tried to show, for example, in the article already mentioned on "'Theorie und
Empiric," this means that only hypothetical recta-sentences of the following kind can be
empirically true or f a l s e : " I f this or that geometry, then this or that physics," and the
other way around. The fact that we begin with the one or the other, however, can only be
explained in the context of the system which existed before these sometimes revolutionary
changes.
11 Cf. also my article " U b e r die Philosophic der Wirklichkeit in der Quantenmechanik'"
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413