Part IV - TB Data Project

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Part IV: TB Data Project

Part A

Table for the Success Rate data I collected in Part 1

Treatment Success/Failure
Success Failure Total
Cabo Verde 92 8 100
Czechia 68 32 100
Member of WHO

Gambia 84 16 100
Lesotho 77 23 100
Namibia 87 13 100
Saint Lucia 25 75 100
Seychelles 45 55 100
South Africa 79 21 100
South Sudan 84 16 100
Venezuela 84 16 100
Total 725 275 1,000

Part B

1. The probability that a randomly selected case is from the 5th or 6th member of WHO in
my table.
• The 5th and 6th members of WHO are Namibia and Saint Lucia, respectively.
• Total cases for Namibia (5th member) = 100
• Total cases for Saint Lucia (6th member) = 100
• Total cases for both = 100 + 100 = 200
• Total cases in the table = 1,000
200
• Probability = 1000 = 0.2

2. The probability that a randomly selected case is from the 5th member of WHO in my
table or is a failure
• Total cases for Namibia (5th member) = 100
• Total failures for Namibia = 13
• Total failures across all countries = 275
• Total cases in the table = 1,000
100 275 375
• Probability = + = = 0.375
1000 1000 1000
3. The probability that a randomly selected case is from the 5th member of WHO in my
table and is a failure
• Total failures for Namibia = 13
• Total cases for Namibia (5th member) = 100
13
• Probability = 100 = 0.13

4. The probability that a randomly selected case is from the 6th member of WHO in my
table, given it is a failure
• Total cases for Saint Lucia (6th member) = 100
• Total failures for Saint Lucia = 75
75
• Probability = 275 ≈ 0.27

5. The probability that three randomly selected cases (without replacement) are all
successes from the 8th member of WHO in my table
• Total cases for Saint Lucia (6th member) = 100
• Total failures for Saint Lucia = 75
75 78 77
• Probability = 100 ∗ 99 ∗ 98 ≈0.489

Part C
Compute and Interpret a 95% confidence interval for the difference between proportions of
successful treatment for the 5th and 6th members of WHO in my table.

Therefore, the 95% confidence interval for the difference between proportions of successful
treatment for Namibia and Saint Lucia is approximately 0.513 to 0.727
Part D

To carry out a hypothesis test for whether there is a difference in the proportions of successful
treatment for Namibia (5th member) and Saint Lucia (6th member), I’ll use a two-sample Z test,
difference of proportions.

• The Hypotheses that are being tested


Null Hypothesis 𝐻𝑜 :The proportions of successful treatment for Namibia and Saint Lucia
are equal.
𝐻𝑜 : 𝑃𝑁𝑎𝑚𝑖𝑏𝑖𝑎 = 𝑃𝑆𝑡𝐿𝑢𝑐𝑖𝑎

Alternative Hypothesis 𝐻𝐴 : The proportions of successful treatment for Namibia and


Saint Lucia are not equal.
𝐻𝐴 : 𝑃𝑁𝑎𝑚𝑖𝑏𝑖𝑎 ≠ 𝑃𝑆𝑡𝐿𝑢𝑐𝑖𝑎

I'll use a significance level α of 0.05 for this hypothesis test.

Test statistic ( Z) = 8.83


P-value = 0

If my P-value = 0 and α = 0.05

I reject the null hypothesis.

Conclusion:
Based on the data, we have sufficient evidence to conclude that there is a significant
difference in the proportions of successful treatment for Namibia and Saint Lucia.

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