Theme 2 Macro
Theme 2 Macro
Theme 2 Macro
1 economic growth
There are 4 main macroeconomic indicators
GDP is a measure of economic growth, economic growth can be measured with the change in
national output of a period of time, national output is all the goods and services produced by a
country
GDP can also be calculated with the national expenditure or aggregate demand
Economic growth is measured as a percentage, the rate of economic growth is the speed at
which national output grows over a period of time.
GNI is the gross national income and this is the GDP plus net income from abroad, this may be
any UK firms making profit from a foreign investment minus any foreigner investment
domestically.
GNP is gross national product, this is the total output of the citizens of the country, whether they
are a resident or not
Limitations of GDP
While GDP and GDP per capita are easy to compare between countries and have many
benefits, there are some downsides to comparing countries with GDP
The extent of the hidden economy / Public spending / Income inequality / Hours worked / free
time / working conditions / environmental damage / different spending needs
Inflation
CPI
The consumer price index is the method of inflation measure used in the UK
A base year for prices is selected and a family expenditure survey is handed out, a basket of
over 600 goods is used and each item is weighted in relevance to percentage of total
expenditure. Weights are then multiplied by changes in price and the total is the inflation rate.
The limitations are that CPI does not measure mortgage interest payments or council tax
The information given by households can be inaccurate
The basket of goods only changes once a year
Inaccurate for a non typical household
Changing quality of goods and services
New products
Does Not account for differences in regional spending
Employers and trade unions use inflation as a starting point in wage negotiations
The government uses them to increase state pensions and other welfare benefits
Some benefits are index linked and they rise to the same percentage as their according year.
Causes of inflation
Rising costs of production, increased minimum wage or raw materials increase in price
Increase in the global price of energy
Movements in the exchange rate (if the value of the currency decreases the cost of raw
materials increases)
Cost push inflation occurs when the cost of production for businesses increase, this can be
things like increase in minimum wage, increase in the cost of raw materials, when there is cost
push inflation output and employment falls causing slow growth and rising inflation
Demand pull inflation is when the total demand for goods and services exceeds the total supply,
as the economy reaches full capacity labor and raw material shortages occur more frequently,
making it harder to expand business and increase output however demand pull inflation is
related to a increase in real GDP (economic growth) and an increase in employment levels.
Effects of inflation
Inflation impacts everyone differently, some people benefit and some people don't.
Pros
● workers with strong bargaining power (or unions) can ask for pay rises
● Debtors real interest rates will decrease
● Producers which increase their prices faster than costs
Cons
● People on fixed incomes suffer
● Lenders will suffer
● Savers loose if they kept their money in an account
● Firms that are dependent on exports may lose sales and profits
If they are unemployed they must be jobless and looking to work for the past 4 weeks and
willing to work in 2 weeks
Or they might be out of work, found a job and are waiting to transfer within the next 2 weeks.
An alternative measure is the claimant account, this counts the number of people claiming
benefits and it is added to those who must be looking for work to claim universal credit
Under employment
Underemployment occurs when people are looking to work more hours at their job, looking for
additional work or their skills are not being fully utilized.
Causes of unemployment
Cyclical (demand deficient) unemployment
This occurs when there is a decrease in the AD of a country and therefore firms are forced to
fire employees due to decreased revenues.
Frictional unemployment.
This is caused by people who are seeking a better job or have gotten a new job and are waiting
to transfer there will always be frictional unemployment regardless of the economic cycle
Structural unemployment
This occurs when there is a lack of suitable skills for the jobs available (miners being sacked
and having no office skills)
Or when there is geographical immobility meaning people are willing to work better jobs but
cannot transport to them or house prices in that area are too high
Seasonal unemployment
This is when a business is only profitable at a certain time of the year, i.e christmas tree sellers
Often times these workers may have a second job to help them throughout the year yet still
remain unemployed for periods of time
Unemployment trap
This is when there is little incentive for someone who is unemployed to start working again as
the loss of welfare benefits and the need to pay an income tax may lead to them being worse off
overall child care costs may also contribute to a barrier of finding work
When immigration occurs in an economy there will be a rightward shift in the supply, this causes
the wage rate to decrease and the quantity supplied and consumed of labor to increase
1) Extra spending may worsen the current account if more exports are purchased
2) Risk of acceleration in demand pull and cost push inflation
3) Less spare labor means labor shortages
2.1.4 Balance of payments
The balance of payments records all financial transactions of a country with other countries.
The balance of payments is made up of the current account, capital account and financial
account for theme 2 we only focus on the current account
1) Trade in goods
2) Trade in services
3) Investment and employment income (salaries paid to workers abroad, dividends from
stocks in a foreign country etc
4) Transfers (payments between countries which aren't for a good or service (sending
money back to home country for family)
Deficit isn't bad and it may mean people in A surplus for a prolonged period of time leads
the country are wealthy enough to afford lots to stagnation where low domestic demand
of imports and allows them to have a higher lead to a decrease in economic growth
standard of living but unsustainable in the
long run
A deficit leads to a fall in currency leading to A large surplus may be due to a over reliance
higher import prices in the short run and may on imports
also lead to inflation
Aggregate demand is the total level of expenditure of goods and services produced in a given
time span, this can be calculated with
AD = C + I + G + ( X - M )
The curve can be shown on a graph as shown below,
Consumption is also known as consumer spending and is the spending from consumer /
households on goods and services
The marginal propensity to consume is the change in spending relative to a change in income it
has a formula C/Y where change in consumption is divided by change in income
Saving is important as it helps people when they have no source of income, provides a fail safe
for firms when profit is low, furthermore saving is needed to fund investment and it acts as a
buffer of financial resources for consumers, when there are tough economic ties people use
savings to spend and to get out of debt.
2.2.3 investment
1) Investment is the money spent by firms on assets which they will use to prudence goods
a) Gross investment is all investment spending
b) Net investment only includes investment that increases productive capacity
If a firm has 3 old trucks, and they buy 5 more, the gross is 5 trucks but the net is
2 trucks.
Risk
The level of risk will affect the amount of investment by firms, if there is economic instability it is
likely the firm will not invest
Government spending is not always directly linked to revenue, if the government spending is
greater than revenue there will be a budget deficit but if government spending is less than
revenue there will be a budget surplus
Governments use fiscal policy to alter their spending and taxation so that they can influence
aggregate demand
If aggregate demand is low and growth is slow, they may overspend creating a budget deficit to
increase AD and boost economic growth
If AD is high and the economy is experiencing a boom then it is likely the government would
increase taxes and spend less to reduce AD and slow down economic growth
An imbalance will influence the circular flow of income, a budget surplus acts as a withdrawal
form the circular flow but a deficit will be an injection into the economy.
Imbalances are fine in the short run however are unsustainable in the long run and harm
economic growth.
2.2.4 imports and exports
A change in the value of a currency will affect net exports in different way sin the long and short
run
Changes in the world state economy will also be influenced if other countries are suffering
economically there will be a decrease in the level of exports and increases in imports, when
other countries are in a boom there will be an increase in exports and a decrease in imports.
The degree of protectionism from tariffs and quotas influence imports, if the country you are in
has a high degree of protectionism then it is likely you will not benefit from importing
2.3.1 aggregate supply
There are two different aggregate supply curves
There is a short run aggregate supply (SRAS) and there is a long run aggregate supply
curve LRAS.
Changes in the costs of production lead to a shift in the SRAS, a reduction in the cost of
production leads to a shift, this as as for the same price level more output can be produced so
the curve shifts to the right
Changes in the factors of production also cause the LRAS to shift, an improvement increases
the total capacity meaning the curve will also shift rightward.
Shifts are often caused by changes such as level of education, demographic changes, better
healthcare, cheaper raw materials etc.
The multiplier effect comes about because injections of new demand for goods and
services into the circular flow of income, stimulate another round of spending - because
one person's spending is another person's income this leads to an overall bigger effect on
society than the initial injection
The circular flow of income demonstrates the flow of income between firms and households.
Firms produce goods and services, which are then traded for labor that households produce,
the households then spend the money on more goods and services, this is called the circular
flow of income.
There are injections and withdrawals into this system, when there is an increase in investment
or there is increased government spending we consider that an injection, when there is money
leaving out through taxation, or exports, we consider that a withdrawal.
Injections have a multiplier effect on the circular flow meaning the actual change is much
greater than the value of the injection.
The size of the multiplier depends on the rate at which money leaks from the circular flow if
there is a lot of money being spent on exports, there will be a smaller injection, the formula for
the injection is 1/(1-MPC)
The multiplier is dependent on the MPC and this is what will make the biggest change to the
AD, it is dependent on several factors
Wealth is the total value of the assets owned by individuals or firms in an economy, this can be
money in savings, stocks or physical items
Unlike income, a flow of money, wealth is a stock concept
2.5.1 causes of economic growth.
Short run economic growth can be defined as change in the position of the PPC or an increase
in demand.
Long run economic growth can be considered as an entire shift of the PPC or the aggregate
supply, where the total potential output has increased.
EXPORT LED GROWTH
Export led growth is one of the biggest expansions of real GDP and therefore economic growth
as more and more resources enter your country.
Advantages
1) Acts as an injection into the economy
2) Export sales provide revenue and profits for businesses
3) Industries help facilitate trade such as trade insurance logistics and port facilities,
countries with fast growing export sectors are likely to see increased foreign investment
4) International trade increases domestic producers' competition, this increases the overall
innovation and lower prices for consumers.
Disadvantages
1) Focusing on only exports leads to over dependence on the economic cycles of other
countries
2) Running persistent surpluses may cause other countries to enforce more trade policies
3) Production capacity may overcome domestic needs and wants lowering the life quality of
domestic people
4) Rapid export led growth leads to demand pull inflation and domestic residents suffer the
most
5) Export-led growth is unsustainable if a country only has enough resources for domestic
use.
2.5.2 output gaps.
The output gap is the difference between the actual level of the GDP and its estimated potential
level, this is expressed as a percentage of potential output.
A positive output gap is where actual GDP is more than predicted GDP (sign of excess AD in
an economy)
A negative output gap occurs when an economy is performing under its predicted GDP
In reality it is not easy to measure the true value of a GDP as it is based on productivity, exact
value of labor force, business output and underemployment.
Recessions occur when there is negative economic growth for at least two consecutive
quarters.
During a recovery the economy begins to grow again from negative economic growth
boom Recession
2) Environmental effects
- Negative externalities such as pollution and waste
- Risk of unsustainable use of finite resources
1) Economic growth
2) Low unemployment
3) Low and stable inflation
4) Balance of payments equilibrium
5) Balanced government budget
6) Protection of the environment
7) Income inequality
Taxation
Direct taxes these are applied on income, wealth and profit, these are things such as income
tax, inheritance tax and corporation tax, this burden cannot be passed onto someone else
Indirect taxes
Indirect taxes are taxes on spending such as duties on fuel, cigarettes and alcohol. Especially
VAT sold on almost all goods and services, producers can pass on an indirect tax onto
consumers based on the price elasticity of demand
Tax revenues are the main source of income for the UK government
Taxes and aggregate demand
Changes in the income tax alter the level of consumption, changes in corporation tax alter the
incentive to invest / enter a market, changes in import taxes can change flows of international
trade
Fiscal budget surpluses and deficit
If total government spending is less than total tax revenues there is a budget surplus
If total government spending is more than total tax revenues there is a budget deficit
Government borrowing is the amount the government must borrow every year to finance the
difference, usually this borrowing is done through the sale of government bonds or also known
as government debt
Austerity policies are policies used by the government to reduce the size of the budget deficit,
here there are increases to the government revenue made and decreases to the spending to
help decrease the built up costs.
These are cuts in government spending, higher taxes, and supply side policies to help increase
the level of growth
Monetary policy.
Monetary policy refers to the changes in interest rates, the supply of money, and exchange
rates.
Nominal interest rates are interest rates accounted for inflation, if there is a 10% interest rate but
a 5% inflation rate, there is a 5% nominal interest rate.
The Bank of England is assigned with the task of ensuring the free floating currency, hitting the
2% inflation rate, quantitative easing and capital / liquidity requirements for banks.
Quantitative easing
1. Purchasing Assets: The central bank creates new bank reserves (digital money)
and uses these funds to buy assets, primarily government bonds, from banks and
other financial institutions.
2. Increasing Money Supply: By purchasing these securities, the central bank injects
liquidity directly into the financial system, increasing the money supply.
3. Lowering Interest Rates: QE aims to lower interest rates on bonds, which can
lead to a decrease in the overall yield curve across various types of debt. Lower
interest rates make borrowing cheaper for businesses and individuals, which can
stimulate investment and spending.
4. Wealth Effect: By buying assets, QE can also lead to higher asset prices (like
stocks and real estate), creating a wealth effect. People and institutions with
assets that increase in value may feel wealthier and more willing to spend,
further stimulating economic activity.
5. Encouraging Lending: With more reserves, banks can increase lending to
businesses and consumers. This can lead to economic expansion as companies
invest and hire more, and consumers increase spending.
6. Influence on Currency: QE can affect the value of a country's currency. Increasing
the money supply typically devalues the currency, which can make exports more
competitive and potentially improve the trade balance
Currency depreciation
Inflation
- A fall in currency makes imports more expensive
- Causing an increase in cost push inflationary pressure
- Makes domestic energy and food bills higher
Market led policies to make markets work better and give the private sector more freedom
They act to
This can be shown by the following diagram, as you can see after expansionary fiscal policy
supply / or the total potential of a country increases, this means that inflation will decrease as
maximum capacity is now further while real GDP increases.
The benefits are that if they are successful we can reach a better trade off between inflation and
unemployment (phillips curve)
We are more flexible to changes in external supply meaning we won't be as dependent on other
countries
Livings standards increase from long term economic growth
Reduced unemployment
Improved competitiveness
1) Unemployment and inflation, the phillips curve tells us that as employment increases,
inflation will also increase.
2) Economic growth and inflation, excess growth from AD puts inflationary pressures on the
economy
3) Economic growth and the balance of payments a consumer boom may cause the trade
deficit to rise as spending on imports increase
4) Economic growth and inequality, when there is rapid economic growth some areas are
exploited for the benefits of others leading to inequality
5) Environmental degradation, almost all economic growth leads to environmental
degradation
6) Income inequality vs economic growth, does high inequality cause slower long term
growth
Macroeconomic policies
Monetary policy to keep inflation low relative to the inflation of comparative countries
Infrastructure to help increase export competitiveness
Inelastic phillips curve, when there is little labor, firms must raise
wages to attract labor leading to an increase in price