Global Hotel Investment Outlook 2024
Global Hotel Investment Outlook 2024
Global Hotel Investment Outlook 2024
Global Hotel
Investment
Outlook 2024
Executive summary
2023 was a challenging year. While fears of a global recession did not come to fruition, rising interest rates led to
widespread capital market dislocation which placed significant downward pressure on global real estate investment
volumes. Further, escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war,
and the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war and humanitarian crisis have resulted in continued global uncertainty.
Despite these challenges, the global lodging industry demonstrated resilience as RevPAR soared to a full recovery
in 2023. Through November, the proportion of RevPAR recovered to 2019 by region ranged from 94% to 121%,
with the Middle East leading the way followed by Europe and the Americas. Asia Pacific (APAC) remains the only
global region yet to reach full recovery; however, performance has risen over the past six months and RevPAR is
expected to surpass 2019 levels by Q1 2024. Global resort and leisure-heavy markets, which were generally the first
to recover following the Covid-19 pandemic, have started to see some normalization in demand while urban market
performance has accelerated as business, group, and international travel all recover. Look for urban hotels to soar
even further in 2024 with London, New York, and Tokyo likely to attract the most investor interest.
While global RevPAR has now exceeded 2019 levels by 12%, there remains room for further growth in 2024.
Outbound Chinese travel, expected to be a major driver of hotel demand following the country’s reopening in early
2023, has so far been sluggish reaching only 50% of 2019 levels due to visa delays and airlift issues. Look for Chinese
travel to accelerate in 2024 which should primarily benefit broader Asia and gateway U.S. cities. Full recovery likely
will not materialize until 2025 though as domestic volatility persists. Expect Europe to continue to be a favored
destination for both foreign and domestic travelers, particularly as Paris gears up to host the Summer Olympics and
Taylor Swift takes her Eras Tour to the U.K. and Western Europe. Other markets to watch include India, driven by its
rising middle class, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Spain. While the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) expects
business travel spend to reach a full recovery in 2024, leisure tourism will likely continue to be the primary driver of
global hotel performance.
As we enter 2024, look for consumers to continue to prioritize travel, particularly that which aligns with their
personal values. Hotels that clearly articulate a commitment to sustainability, wellness, and authenticity will have a
competitive advantage to not only meaningfully increase market share, but also drive higher asset values and unlock
new sources of capital. A hotel’s brand has never been more important as traveler expectations are on the rise. With
1,350 global hotel brands to choose from, it is crucial that hotels communicate, and more importantly execute,
on their brand promise. Look for hotel owners to refine their brand promises in 2024, with the potential for brand
consolidation, particularly as traditional hotel brands expand into new verticals, beyond just places to sleep.
1,400
$80 $80.6
was generated by first-time hotel buyers, the highest portion
200
$- 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Irreplaceable luxury assets as well as the select-service and extended-stay sectors will remain the
most favored and liquid in 2024 driven by the growth in global wealth and the continued blurring of
lines between living and traveling, respectively. Look for this to drive bifurcation in asset pricing, with
luxury hotels expected to trade at a premium as other segments likely experience a pricing reset.
Expect institutional capital that has been on the sidelines for much of 2023 to reemerge in 2024,
particularly for must-have assets in safe-haven markets. Foreign investment, which has been largely
absent over the past three years, should also accelerate now that all international borders are reopen.
Look for cash-rich Middle Eastern and Asian investors to acquire quality assets across Europe and in
select U.S. markets.
London has seen a surge in both inbound international and domestic European travel, benefitting from the weaker British Pound
which continues to attract both tourists and investors alike. London RevPAR grew 19% relative to 2019 driven by historic ADR
as hotel operators continued to navigate high inflation. Look for the market’s occupancy, which still lags 2019 by 3 percentage
points, to accelerate in 2024 and drive RevPAR even higher. This should fuel hotel investment volume which closed 2023 at
a mere $867.8 million, down 64% from historical averages. Expect impending loan maturities and deferred capex to catalyze
transactions in 2024, with the luxury sector likely to be the largest recipient of capital.
Driven by the highest ADR in the market’s history, New York RevPAR soared in 2023, exceeding 2019 levels by 14%. The market
has benefitted from the reemergence of international travel coupled with a surge in domestic group and business demand, with
As we head into 2024, look for global urban group revenue now up nearly 10% relative to 2019. Expect continued growth in 2024 underpinned by the resurgence of inbound
markets to be the most appealing for hotel Asian travelers following the removal of China’s group travel ban in August. The market will also benefit from limited future
investment driven by accelerating fundamental supply growth driven by new zoning laws and the city’s de facto AirBnb ban. Investors have already taken notice, with New York
performance. In fact, JLL’s 2023 Global Hotel leading all global markets in 2023 hotel liquidity at $3.3 billion, 28% higher than its historical average. As development costs
Investor Sentiment Survey reported that 84% rise, driving the cost-to-build significantly above the cost-to-buy, look for transaction volume to accelerate further, with foreign
of hotel investors expect to deploy the bulk investors likely to be the most acquisitive.
of their capital towards urban markets over
the next 12 months. As asset pricing generally Although slower to reopen than London and New York, hotel performance in Tokyo accelerated significantly in 2023. While
remains below pre-pandemic levels, expect inbound Chinese travel is only half of pre-Covid levels due to visa delays and airlift challenges, intraregional travel has soared,
urban hotel liquidity to increase further. leading to a 9% growth in RevPAR relative to 2019 (in local currency). Like London, the continued depreciation of the Yen has
resulted in strong inbound visitation, while investors have taken advantage of the weaker currency. Hotel transaction volume
reached $1.2 billion in 2023, 31% higher than the market’s historical average. Look for liquidity to grow only slightly in 2024 as
negative leverage remains a challenge.
Europe will likely be the largest beneficiary as it prepares for the -93%
This acceleration in international travel should not only strengthen urban hotel performance but should also lead to some growth in cross-border hotel investment which has been largely absent since the onset of
Covid. From 2010-19, foreign hotel investment accounted for an annual average of 22% of total global hotel investment volume. This has shrunk to only 12% over the past three years as many global investors have
been pushed to the sidelines due to geopolitical instability and fears of a global recession. While volatility persists, look for cash-rich, low-leverage investors to drive cross-border capital led by sovereign wealth
funds, HNWIs, and family offices. Expect Middle Eastern and Asian investors to be the most acquisitive, with urban markets in Europe and select U.S. cities to be the largest beneficiaries. Look for Africa and India to be
selectively targeted by European and Asian investors as major hotel brands expand into these markets.
Brand/Parent company M&A transactions involving publicly-traded and/or large global hotel
companies, 2012 - 2023
$25 16
15
14
$1,400.0
$1,200.0 $1,172.9
$1,000.0
Total impact bond issuance (billions USD)
$901.5
$841.2
$800.0
$600.0 $582.2
$400.0 $350.6
$192.0
$200.0 $172.1
$95.0
$38.4 $47.2
$-
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: Bloomberg
Contributors
Zach Demuth
Global Head of Hotels Research
JLL Hotels & Hospitality Group
[email protected]