RESERVOIR

ENGINEERING COURSE
MPET-4101
UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES

Instructor: Rodolfo Soto Becerra, Ph.D.

e-mail: [email protected]
Module 3
RESERVOIR MODELS
 Reservoir Drive Mechanisms
 Appraisal of Oil and Gas Fields
• Volumetric Method
• Material Balance
• Decline Curve Analysis
 DCA – Rate vs. Time
plots
• A rate vs. time plot can show that reserves will be
produced in a realistic time period and for the purposes of
carrying out an economic limit test (ELT)
Phase

b
:
:
:
Oil

0
Di qi ti : 0.0148182 M.n.
• But extrapolation of curve may be more difficult to use in te : 2776.15 m3/d
End Rate : 05/31/2004
reserves estimation (unless curve-fit program is used). : 06/30/2012
Final Rate
6000 : 0.01 m3/d
Cum. Prod.
Cum. Date : 659.625 m3/d
Reserves : 5693.07 Km3
Calendar Day Oil Rate (m3/d)

EUR : 05/31/2004
: 4347.49 Km3
4500 : 10040.6 Km3
Forecast Ended By : Time
Forecast Date :

3000

1500

0
1989 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
 Projection of Performance Trends
• Predicts future rates from extrapolation of historical
performance trends (rates, ratios, flowing pressures)
• Production decline curve analysis common example
 Relates reserves to producing rates directly as function
of time or cumulative production
• Estimated reserves must be adjusted for
cumulative production, fuel, and shrinkage
• Applicable with as little as 6 months production, better
with long production history (several years)
 Superior method in final stages of depletion
 Learning Objectives
• You will be able to
 Use conventional decline curve analysis
 Match past performance
 Estimate future production using decline curves
 Estimate reserves using decline curves
and production trend plots
 State theoretical basis for decline-curve analysis
 State assumptions inherent in decline-curve
analysis
 Learning Objectives
 State respective values of b for specific
situations
 Estimate reserves using decline curve
analysis and “minimum decline rate,” and
state limitations of this method
 Use effective and nominal decline equations
 Use exponential and harmonic decline
Why Do We Use Decline Curve
Analysis?
 Match past performance trends with a
model
 Forecast future
 Estimate reserves
What Can Change the Trend?

 Field operations, development strategies

 Increase or decrease in flowing
bottomhole pressure
 Drilling infill wells
 Drilling stepout wells
 Initiating secondary or tertiary recovery
program
Empirical Observation: The Arps Equation

Stabilized rate at time

0, volume/time Decline rate at
time 0, 1/time
qi
qt  
1  bDit  1b

Rate at time t,
volume/time Arps’ decline
Time
constant,
dimensionless
Common Units for Variables in Arps’
Equation
• q (rate at time t)
 STB/D, STB/mo, STB/yr
 Mscf/D, MMscf/D, ….
• Di (decline rate at time 0)
 1/D, 1/mo, 1/yr
• t (time)
 D, mo, yr
 Theoretical Basis for Arps’ Decline
Equation
• Production at constant BHP
• Well or reservoir in boundary-dominated flow
(sometimes incorrectly called “pseudo steady-
state flow”)
 No transient flow data
• Constant productivity index
 No change in damage or stimulation
 Skin factor constant
• Constant radius of drainage
• Derivations in Fetkovich, SPE 4629
 Decline Curves
• Three basic types (rate vs. time)
 Exponential (or constant percentage) (b = 0)
 Hyperbolic (0 <b < 1)
 Harmonic (b = 1)
 Exponential Decline
(b = 0; Di =a = constant)
• Nominal decline rate, a(instantaneous decline
rate)
q  qie at
 qi 
Watch units!
Careful! ln   If t in yr, a in yr-1
  q 
qi, q must be one a If t in mo, a in mo-1
t
unit of time!
• Effective decline rate, d (decline rate over
one unit of time, usually a year)
qi  q
d  1  ea
qi a  ln1 d 
 Exponential Decline

• Cumulative production
t t

N p or G p   q dt  qi  e dt at

o o
qi  q Watch units!
N p or G p  If q in STB/D, a in days-1
a If q in STB/mo, a in mo-1
If q in STB/yr, a in yr-1
 Decline-Curve Shapes (1)
• Exponential

Log
rate, q
Exponential decline

Time, t
 Graphical Analysis for Exponential
Decline
100
Rate, STB/D

10
0 5 10 15 20
Time, years
Graphical Analysis for Exponential
Decline
100

90

80

70
Rate, STB/D

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Cumulative Production, MSTB
 Nominal v Effective Decline
• The nominal decline factor a is defined as the negative slope
of the curve representing the natural logarithm of the
production rate q vs. time t
d lnq 1 dq
a=  
dt q dt
 Nominal decline is a continuous function and it is the decline
factor that is used in the various mathematical equations relating
to decline curve analysis. For exponential decline it is a constant
with time.
• The effective decline factor d is a stepwise function that is in
better agreement with data recording practices. It is the drop
in production rate from qi to q1 over a specific time period. It is
defined as
qi  q1
d=
qi
 Nominal v Effective Decline
It is easy to convert from a nominal decline factor to an
effective decline factor and vice versa.
• To convert from nominal decline factor (a) to the effective
decline factor (d):

d  1  ea
• To convert from effective decline factor (d) to the nominal
decline factor (a):

a   ln1 d 
• Thus an ‘effective’ decline of 10 % per year is equivalent
to a nominal decline of 10.54% per year and vice versa
Nominal vs. Effective Decline
. 3
Diverging
Similar at high
2 at low values
Nominal values
Decline, a
1

0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Effective Decline, d
 Hyperbolic Decline
• When the rate/time line isn’t straight on
semilog coordinates Watch units!
1 Dit is dimensionless!

q  qi 1 bDit  b
t
0<b<1

 Again, N p or G p   qdt
0

qi  q 
b
q
So N p or G p  i1b 1b

1 bDi

 Decline-Curve Shapes (2)
• Hyperbolic

Exponential decline

Log
rate, q
Hyperbolic decline

Time, t
 Hyperbolic Decline
• How to fit (unknowns qi, Di, b)
 Non-linear curve fitting (computer)
• Ample data needed for good fit
• Mian, Vol.I, Pp.102-103 one method
(discussed in later slides)
• Fit with limited data is risky; not guided by
engineering principles
 Fetkovich type curves
 Fetkovich recommendations using
expected values of b (Paper SPE 28628)
 Harmonic Decline

• Special case of hyperbolic decline for b=1 (rare

in practice)
qi
q
1 Dit 

N p or G p  qi ln qi 
Di  q 
 Decline-Curve Shapes (3)
• Harmonic decline

Exponential decline

Log Harmonic
rate, q decline

Hyperbolic decline

Time, t
Rembering: 3 Sets of Equations

 Hyperbolic general case

 where 0 < b < 1
 Exponential decline where b = 0
 Harmonic decline, where b = 1
 Cartesian Rate vs time
100

90

80

70
Harmonic
Rate, STB/D

60

50 Hyperbolic
40

30

20
Exponential

10

0
0 5 10 15 20
Time, years
 Semilog Rate vs Time
100

Harmonic
Rate, STB/D

Hyperbolic

Exponential

10
0 5 10 15 20
Time, years
 Log-Log Rate vs Time
100

Harmonic
Rate, STB/D

Hyperbolic
Exponential

10
0.1 1 10 100
Time, years
 Cartesian Cumulative Production
vs Time
450

400
Cumulative Production, MSTB

350
Harmonic

300

250 Hyperbolic
200

150 Exponential

100

50

0
0 5 10 15 20
Time, years
 Cartesian Rate vs Cumulative
Production
100

90

80

70
Rate, STB/D

60

50 Harmonic
Exponential
40

30

20

10 Hyperbolic
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Cumulative Production, MSTB
 Semilog Rate vs Cumulative
Production
100

Harmonic
Rate, STB/D

Exponential
Hyperbolic

10
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Cumulative Production, MSTB
 Log-Log Rate vs (1 + b Di t)
100

Harmonic
Rate, STB/D

Hyperbolic

10
1 10
(1+b Di t)
 Observed Values of b

30

25

20
Frequency,% 15

10

5
0
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1.0
Values of b

From Cutler, Arps

 b Values for Specific Situations
• b indeterminate
 Constant or increasing rate
 Flow all transient (infinite acting)
 b Values for Specific Situations

• b = 0, exponential
 Single-phase liquid flow (highly undersaturated oil
wells) (derived)
 High-pressure gas
 Low-pressure gas with backpressure curve
exponent n = 0.5 (tubing-limited wells)
 Depletion or solution-gas drive with unfavorable kg /
ko
 b Values for Specific Situations

• b = 0, exponential
 Poor waterflood performance
 Wells with high backpressure
• Where pwf / p 1
 Liquid-loaded gas wells
 Gravity drainage with no free surface
 b Values for Specific Situations

• b = 0.3
 Typical for solution-gas drive (derived)
• b = 0.4 to 0.5
 Typical for gas wells (derived values)

b  0.5for pwf  0
b  0.4 for pwf  0.1p
 b Values for Specific Situations

 • b = 0.5
 Gravity drainage with a free surface (derived)
 Full water drive in oil reservoir (field data
 observation)
 • b > 0.5
 Layered, no cross-flow reservoirs
 Minimum Hyperbolic Decline
• Decline exponent “b” theoretically in range
0<b<1, but apparent “b” from data fitting can be
greater than 1 (almost always because transient
data are included in data matched)
 b>1 as a history match is possible;
 b>1 as a realistic forecast is NOT!.....BUT:
• Some analysts (and commercial software) allow
user to project trend into future and allow curve
to “go exponential” with a specified minimum
(exponential) decline rate, usually based on
analogy or intuition
 Dmin example: Spraberry Field
• Cronquist: “For routine
decline trend analysis, most
engineers use the classic
Arps hyperbolic equation to
fit observed trends and set a
minimum annual decline
consistent with experience in
the area to ensure that
computed (future) decline
rates do not become
unrealistically small.”

Example: EUR overestimated by 50% without use

of the Dmin observed in other wells in the field.
 Other Performance Trend Plots –
Gas Reservoirs
• Volumetric gas reservoirs
 p/z vs. Gp plot (Cartesian coordinates) should be
linear – a form of Material Balance
 Extrapolate to (p/z) at abandonment pressure to
determine EUR
• Water-drive gas reservoirs
 WGR vs. Gp on semilog plot often linear,
extrapolated to economic limit WGR
 Alternative is plot of FTP vs. Gp, extrapolated to line
 pressure
 Calculating Decline Rate, Remaining
Reserves
10,000
843 STB/month
(1 January 2002) 717 STB/month
Oil production, STB/month

(1 January 2003)
1,000

Actual Production Forecast

100
Cumulative oil production (Np)
31 December 01 =78,044 STB

10
’97 ’00 Year ’03 ’06
Calculating Decline Rate, Remaining
Reserves
• Calculate
 Effective (d) and nominal (a) decline rates
 Remaining reserves (NP) from 1 January 2002 to
 EL of 200 STB/month
 Time (t) to produce to EL
 Ultimate oil recovery (Nul) to EL
 Production rate (q04) at end of year 2004
 Calculating Decline Rate,
Remaining Reserves
10,000
843  717
d 100  14.95  15% 843 STB/month
843
(1 January 2002) 717 STB/month
(1 January 2003)
Oil production, STB/month

1,000 15% exponential

decline
Actual Production Forecast

100 Cumulative oil production (Np)

31 December 01 =78,044 STB

a   ln 1 0.15  0.1625 or 16.25%

10
’97 ’00 Year ’03 ’06
 Calculating Decline Rate,
Remaining Reserves
10,000
843 STB/month
(1 January 2002) 717 STB/month
Oil production, STB/month

(1 January 2003)
1,000 15%

Actual Production Forecast

100 Cumulative oil production (Np)

31 December
q  q  01 =78,044 STB
Nr  i EL
a


843 20012  47,483STB
10 0.1625
’97 ’00 Year ’03 ’06
 Calculating Decline Rate,
Remaining Reserves
10,000
843 STB/month
(1 January 2002) 717 STB/month
(1 January 2003)
Oil production, STB/month

1,000 15%

Actual Production Forecast

100 Cumulative oil production (Np)

31 December 01 =78,044 STB
ln
843 

t   200   8.85 years
0.1625
10
’97 ’00 Year ’03 ’06
 Calculating Decline Rate,
10,000
Remaining Reserves
843 STB/month
(1 January 2002) 717 STB/month
(1 January 2003)
Oil production, STB/month

1,000 15%

Actual Production Forecast

100 Cumulative oil production (Np)

31 December 01 =78,044 STB
N ul  N p  N r
 78,044  47,483  125,527 STB
10
’97 ’00 Year ’03 ’06
 Calculating Decline Rate,
Remaining Reserves
10,000
843 STB/month
(1 January 2002) 717 STB/month
(1 January 2003)
Oil production, STB/month

1,000 15%

Actual Production Forecast

100 Cumulative oil production (Np)

31 December 01 =78,044 STB
qYE04  qieat
 843e0.16253  518 STB/month
10
’97 ’00 Year ’03 ’06
Nominal vs Effective Decline

 Nominal decline can be directly converted from

one set of time units to another
 Effective decline cannot be directly converted
from one set of units to another.
 Conversion depends on hyperbolic exponent b
 Convert effective to nominal decline in the original units
 Convert nominal decline to the new units
 Convert nominal decline back to effective decline in the
new units
Example 1

 Convert a nominal decline of 12 %/yr to %/mo

Example 1 Solution

12%  12%  1yr  1%

Di    
yr  yr  12mo  mo
Example 2

 Convert an effective decline rate De = 12%/yr to

%/mo, assuming exponential decline
 Example 2 Solution
First, we convert the effective decline to nominal decline:

Next, we convert the nominal decline in fracture/year to fracture/months

Finally, we convert the nominal decline back to effective decline as shown below.

For exponential decline, an effective decline rate of 12 %/yr is the same as an effective
decline rate of 1.0596 %/mo, not 1 %/mo

D
De  1  e
 0.010653
 1 e
1
 0.010596 mo
Estimating b From Reservoir Drive
Mechanism
 Each drive mechanism has a characteristic b
value
 If b cannot be estimated from production data, b
may be estimated from the drive mechanism
 Estimating b from Reservoir Drive
Mechanism References
1. Fetkovich, M. J.: “Decline Curve Analysis Using Type Curves,” JPT (June 1980) 1065-1077. Originally
presented as SPE 4629 at the 1973 Annual Fall Meeting, Las Vegas, 30 Sept. - 3 Oct.
2. Matthews, C. S. and Leftkovits, H. C.: “Gravity-Drainage Performance of Depletion-Type Reservoirs,” Trans.
AIME (1956) 207, 265.
3. Leftkovits, H. C. and Matthews, C. S.: “Application of Decline Curves to Gravity-Drainage Reservoirs in the
Stripper Stage,” Trans. AIME (1958) 213, 275.
4. Maley, S.: “The Use of Conventional Decline Curve Analysis in Tight Gas Well Applications,” paper SPE
13898 presented at the SPE/DOE 1985 Low Permeability Gas Reservoirs Symposium, Denver, Colorado,
19-22 May.
5. Gentry, R. W., and McCray, A. W.: “The Effect of Reservoir and Fluid Properties on Decline Curves,” JPT
(Sept. 1978) 1327-1341.
6. Mead, H. N.: “Modifications to Decline Curve Analysis,” Trans. AIME (1956) 207, 11-16.
7. Fetkovich, M. J., Fetkovich, E. J., and Fetkovich, M. D.: “Useful Concepts for Decline Curve Forecasting,
Reserve Estimation, and Analysis,” paper SPE 28628 presented at the 1994 Annual Technical Conference
and Exhibition, New Orleans, 25-28 September.
8. Fetkovich, M. J., Bradley, M. D., Works, A. M., and Thrasher, T. S.: “Depletion Performance of Layered
Reservoirs Without Crossflow,” SPEFE (Sept. 1990) 310-318.
Example 4

1. Estimate the decline curve parameters qi and Di for

a. exponential decline,
b. harmonic decline, and
c. hyperbolic decline with b=0.5.
2. Forecast production for 20 years for
a. exponential decline,
b. harmonic decline, and
c. hyperbolic decline with b=0.5.
3. Calculate the ultimate recovery Npa and the time to
abandonment ta for a field-wide economic limit rate
of 9000 STB/mo.
Example 4 Solution

 Prepare the appropriate graphs for analysis with

exponential, harmonic, and hyperbolic decline and
estimate qi and Di
 For convenience, we use time in months, and plot
the production volume for the month as a monthly
rate at the midpoint of the month
 Develop a new rate table with time in decimal
months
 Exponential Decline Solution

1. Graph q vs t on a semilog scale

2. Draw the best-fit straight line (or use linear regression to fit log(q) vs.
t)
3. Read qi from the intercept as 65,700 STB/mo
4. Find the slope by reading two points on the straight line. We have a
point for t=0; now read the rate at t=240 months as 3490 STB/mo. The
slope is given by
5. The decline rate Di is obtained from the slope m by
We may read the production rate directly from the graph at the desired
points in time to obtain the forecast
Exponential Decline Solution
Decline Curve Example - Exponential Decline

100000

65700
Production rate, STB/month

10000

3490

1000
0 60 120 180 240
Time, months
 Exponential Decline - Forecast
As an example, calculate the rate and cumulative production at 60
months.

First, calculate the rate q at 60 months.

 1.223102 60 
qt   qie Di t
 65700 e  31540 STB / mo

Next, calculate the cumulative production Np(t) at 60 months.

qi  qt  65700  31540

Np t    2
 2,793,100 STB
Di 1.223  10

At t = 240 months, the rate q is 3490 STB/mo and the cumulative

production Np is 5,086,700 STB
 Exponential Decline - Abandonment
First, calculate the ratio.
qi 65700
r   7.3
qa 9000
Next, calculate the time to abandonment ta

ln r ln7.3 
ta   2
 162.5 months
Di 1.223  10
Finally, calculate the cumulative production at abandonment Npa.

qi  qa 65700  9000 
Npa   2
 4,636,100 STB
Di 1.223  10
Harmonic Decline Solution

 For harmonic decline, we graph q vs Np on a

semilog scale
 First, we have to compute the cumulative
production as a function of time
 Simply adding the monthly volumes will give
the cumulative production at the end of each
month
 Production rate is calculated as an average
over the month, and should be plotted at the
middle of each month
 Harmonic Decline Solution
 To get cumulative production at the middle of
month j+1, use

Npj1 2  Npj  0.5q j1  Npj1 2  0.5q j  q j1 

where
Npj is the cumulative production through the end of month j
qj+1 is the monthly production volume for month j+1
Npj+1/2 is the cumulative production through the middle of month j+1
The cumulative production at the middle of month is given as
Middle of Month 1
Middle of Month 2
 Harmonic Decline Solution
Finally, using the table of t, q, and Np, plot q vs. Np on a semilog scale,
as shown on this slide.
100000
Production rate, STB/month

10000

1000
0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

Cumulative production, STB

 Harmonic Decline Solution
Draw the best-fit straight line (or use linear regression to fit log (q) vs Np); Read qi from
the intercept as 68,800 STB/mo; Find the slope by reading two points on the straight
line. We have a point for Np=0; now read the rate at Np=3,000,000 STB as 31,300
STB/mo. The slope is given by. The decline rate Di is obtained from the slope m by
100000
68800

31300
Production rate, STB/month

10000

1000
0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

Cumulative production, STB

Harmonic Decline - Forecast
For harmonic decline we cannot read the forecast directly from the
graph. Instead, we have to use the equations presented earlier.
 At t = 60 months, q is calculated from
qi 68800
 
qt    33020 STB / mo
 
1  Di t 1 + 1.806  10-2 60 

 Cumulative production Np at 60 months is

qi  qi   68800   68800 
Np t   ln    2  
ln   2,796,500 STB
Di  q   1.806  10   33020 

At a time of 240 months, we have

q = 12,880 STB/mo and Np > 6,374,700 STB
Harmonic Decline - Abandonment
qi 68800
1. Calculate the ratio r r   7.6444
qa 9000

2. Calculate the time to abandonment ta.

r  1 7.6444  1
ta   2
 367.4months  30.6years
Di 1.806  10

3. calculate the cumulative production at abandonment

Npa

qi  qi  68800  68800 
Npa  ln   2
ln   7,738,500STB
Di  qa  1.806  10  9000 
The 20-Year Forecast
100000
Production rate, STB/month

10000

1000
0 60 120 180 240

Time, months
 Hyperbolic Decline Solution
For hyperbolic decline, we graph q-b vs t on a Cartesian
scale, using b=0.5
0.007

0.0065

0.006

0.0055 5.583E-3
1/sqrt(q)

0.005

0.0045

0.004
3.858E-3
0.0035

0.003
0 12 24 36 48 60

Time, months
Hyperbolic Decline Solution

1. Read the intercept a as 3.85810-3

2. Calculate the initial rate qi from the intercept a

3. Find the slope by reading two points on the straight line. We

have a point for t=0, now read the rate at t=60 months as
5.58310-3.
Hyperbolic Decline Solution
Note that the decline rate for hyperbolic decline is between the
decline rates for exponential and harmonic decline

mqbi m
Di   
b ab

2.875  10 5


3.858  10 0.5 
3

 1.490  10  2mo 1
 17.9% / yr
Hyperbolic Decline - Forecast
1.Calculate the rate q.
qi 67200
qt     32090 STB / mo
1  bDit 1b
   
1 + 0.5  1.490  10 60 
- 2 1 0.5

2. Calculate the cumulative production Np

Np t  
qbi

Di 1  b 

q1ib  q1b


67200 0.5
1.490  10 1  0.5 
2
67200 1 0.5 
 32090 1 0.5 

 2,786,900 STB

At t=240 months, the rate q is 8650 STB/mo and the

cumulative production Np is 5,783,900 STB
Hyperbolic Decline - Abandonment

qi 67200
r   7.4667
qa 9000

rb  1 7.4667 0.5  1
ta    232.6months  19.4years
bDi 
0.5  1.490  10 2

Npa 
qbi
Di 1  b 
q1ib  q1ab 


67200 0.5
1.490  10 1  0.5 
2
67200 1 0.5 
 9000 1 0.5 

 5,719,100STB
Hyperbolic Decline - 20-Year Forecast
Decline Curve Example - Hyperbolic Decline
100000
Production rate, STB/month

10000

1000
0 60 120 180 240

Time, months
Comparison of 20-Year Forecasts for
Exponential, Hyperbolic, and
Harmonic Decline Decline Curve Example - Comparison of Forecasts
100000

Field Data

Harmonic
Production rate, STB/month

10000
Hyperbolic

Exponential

1000
0 60 120 180 240
Time, months
Advanced
Decline Curve Analysis
Advanced
Decline Curve Analysis
Instructional Objectives
 Distinguish transient and boundary flow
 Calculate time to reach boundary flow
 Estimate k, s, OOIP, and b
 Forecast future performance
Arps Equation for
Exponential Decline

qt   qie Di t

Decline Curve
Dimensionless Time

t dD  Di t
Decline Curve
Dimensionless Rate

qt 
qdD 
qi
Dimensionless Arps Equation

 For exponential decline

 t dD
qdD  e
Dimensionless
Exponential Decline
100

10

1
qdD

0.1

0.01

0.001
0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
tdD
Dimensionless Arps Equation

 Hyperbolic decline

1
qdD 
 Harmonic decline
1  btdD 1b

1
qdD 
1  t dD 
Dimensionless
Decline Type Curves
100

10

1
qdD

0.1

0.01
0.2 0.6 b=1

b=0 0.4 0.8

0.001
0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
tdD
Constant Pressure Production

0.006329kt 141.2qB
tD  qD 
c trw2 a khpi  p w f 

re s
RD  rwa  rw e
rw a
 Constant Pressure Production
1.E+02

1.E+01

1.E+00
qD

1.E-01 R=inf.

R=10 R=50 R=100 R=300

R=20 R=1000
1.E-02

1.E-03
1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06 1.E+07 1.E+08
tD
Fetkovich Solution

tD
t dD 

1  re 
2    r  1
   1 ln e   
2  rw a     rw a  2 


  re  1 
qdD  qD ln   
  rw a  2 
 Fetkovich Solution
100

10

1
qdD

0.1

0.01

0.001
0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
tdD
 Fetkovich Type Curve
100
Transient flow Boundary-dominated flow

10 RD=10

20
50
300 100

1 RD=1E6
qdD

0.1

0.01

0.2 0.6 b=1

b=0 0.4 0.8
0.001
0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
tdD
Dimensionless Variables

0.006329kt 1
t dD 
c trw2 a 1  r  2    r  1 
 e   1 ln e   
2  rw a     rw a  2 
 

141.2qB   re  1
qdD  ln   
khpi  p w f    rw a  2 
Drainage Radius Estimate

 0.006329  t  141.2B  q 
re  2    
 c t  t dD  hpi  p w f   qdD 
Drainage Area and
Original Oil-In-Place

re2
A
43560

1  S w  t  q 
N   
c t pi  p w f   t dD  qdD 
Estimating
Permeability and Skin Factor

141.2B  1  q 
k  lnRD    
hpi  p w f   2  qdD 

rw a 
re  rw 
s  ln 
RD  rw a 
Estimating
Permeability and Skin Factor

s re
rwa  rw e RD 
rw a

141.2B  1  q 
k  lnRD    
hpi  p w f   2  qdD 
Applying the
Fetkovich Type Curve
 Graph rate vs. time on log-log scale
 Identify transient and boundary-dominated flow
 Lay field data plot on type curve
 Match field data to type curve
Applying the
Fetkovich Type Curve
 Select a convenient match point
 Read the time match point (tdD, t)
 Read the rate match point (qdD, q)
 Select the early-time stem RD
 Select the late-time stem b
Applying the
Fetkovich Type Curve
 Estimate the drainage radius

 0.006329  t  141.2B  q 
re  2    
 c t  t dD  hpi  p w f   qdD 
 Estimate the drainage area and original oil in
place
re2 1  S w  t  q 
A N   
43560 c t pi  p w f   t dD  qdD 
Applying the
Fetkovich Type Curve
 If RD can be estimated from type curve match,
estimate permeability

141.2B  1  q 
k  lnRD    
hpi  p w f   2  qdD 
 Estimate apparent wellbore radius and skin factor

rw a 
re  rw 
s  ln 
RD  rw a 
Applying the
Fetkovich Type Curve
 If RD cannot be estimated, estimate skin factor
from independent source
 Estimate apparent wellbore radius and RD

s re
rwa  rw e RD 
rw a
 Estimate permeability

141.2B  1  q 
k  lnRD    
hpi  p w f   2  qdD 
Supplementing Monthly Data With
Daily Data
 May not be able to separate the effects of skin
factor and permeability with monthly data alone
 Daily data can help separate skin factor and
permeability
 May need hourly intervals in higher- permeability
reservoirs
 To avoid curve-fitting, seek straight lines
• To forecast production based on fitting a curve to
historical data can be challenging – it is hard to get a
perfect historical curve fit and then it is even harder to
know if the forecast correctly represents this ever-
changing trend.
• It is much easier to forecast a trend that is a straight
line (although it may not be any more accurate).
• Thus, it is important to know what decline equations
can be plotted as straight lines:
• Exponential: log Rate v Time; Rate v Cum. Prod.
• Harmonic: log Rate v Cum. Prod.
Reserve Estimation and
Calculation Methods