Investor Digest: Equity Research - 20 March 2024
Investor Digest: Equity Research - 20 March 2024
Investor Digest: Equity Research - 20 March 2024
Guidance for 2024. The company guided for 1) 5% growth in its mining
* Aggregate of 78 companies in MS research universe,
representing 51.8% of JCI’s market capitalization
contracting business, with 137mn tons of coal production and 1.2mn bcm of
overburden removal; 2) 12mn tons (+1.8% YoY) in coal sales volume (~3mn tons
of coking coal, ~6.6mn tons of thermal coal, and 2.4mn tons from trading); 3)
Komatsu sales to decline to ~4k units (-25% YoY), wherein big machine will
contribute ~25-27% to sales at ~1.2k units (-31% YoY); 4) gold production to
reach 235k oz (Martabe at 210k oz and SGR at 25k oz); 5) UNTR’s internal forecast
of Newcastle coal price at USD 110/ton (vs. our forecast at USD 120/ton); 6) a
target of ~2mn tons of ore sales in 2024 from Stargate; 7) capex at USD 1.3bn,
wherein USD ~1.1bn will be spent on its mining contracting business for the
purchase of heavy equipment, USD 100mn in gold to develop a tailing
management system facility, and USD 100mn to support the expansion of port
and washing plant.
JCI Indices Sectors Last Chg (%) YTD (%) Indo Foreign Flow (US$mn) Last Chg YTD Chg
Financials 1,507.3 +0.1 +3.4 Equity Flow +48.4 +1,728.9
Basic Materials 1,274.8 -0.2 -2.5 Bonds Flow +190.9 -1,127.4
Consumer Non-Cycl 719.9 +1.1 -0.3
Energy 2,130.1 +0.7 +1.4 Commodities Last Chg (%) YTD (%)
Infrastructures 1,592.3 +0.6 +1.4 Crude Oil, Brent (US$/bl) 87.38 +0.6 +13.4
Technology 3,626.0 -0.9 -18.3 Copper spot (US$/mt) 8,871 -1.3 +4.8
Consumer Cycl 817.8 -0.5 -0.4 Nickel spot (US$/mt) 17,190 -2.8 +5.0
Properties 676.4 +0.7 -5.3 Gold (US$/oz) 2,158 -0.1 +4.6
Healthcare 1,330.0 +0.6 -3.4 Tin spot (US$/mt) 27,206 -4.4 +8.1
Industrials 1,108.4 +0.3 +1.3 CPO futures (MYR/ton) 4,201 -0.8 +12.9
Transport & Logistic 1,580.2 -0.1 -1.3 Coal (US$/ton) 129.4 -0.3 -11.6
Rubber forward (US¢/kg) 266.4 -1.2 +53.9
Soybean oil (US$/100 gallons) 48.14 -1.2 +0.6
Baltic Dry Index 2,419.0 +2.0 +15.5
Equity Valuation
Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth (%) Div.Yield (%)
Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025
MANSEK universe 7,337 7,640 4.1 6,036,293 415,103 438,664 14.5 13.8 2.1 1.9 12.3 11.9 8.4 5.6 3.6 3.9
Banking 2,675,747 168,741 187,753 15.9 14.3 2.8 2.6 N.A. N.A. 12.2 11.3 4.1 4.7
BBCA Buy 10,175 11,200 10.1 1,254,324 54,139 58,311 23.2 21.5 4.8 4.4 N.A. N.A. 10.4 7.7 2.7 3.1
BBNI Buy 5,850 6,600 12.8 218,189 23,569 26,628 9.3 8.2 1.4 1.3 N.A. N.A. 12.1 13.0 4.8 5.4
BBRI Buy 6,000 6,700 11.7 909,258 67,100 75,160 13.6 12.1 2.8 2.7 N.A. N.A. 12.4 12.0 6.3 7.0
BBTN Buy 1,345 1,800 33.8 18,876 3,877 4,302 4.9 4.4 0.6 0.5 N.A. N.A. 5.5 11.0 3.9 4.1
BNLI Neutral 940 1,000 6.4 34,010 2,868 3,425 11.9 9.9 0.8 0.8 N.A. N.A. 26.3 19.4 2.5 3.0
BTPS Buy 1,300 2,100 61.5 10,014 1,610 2,050 6.2 4.9 1.1 0.9 N.A. N.A. 46.4 27.4 5.6 7.2
BRIS Buy 2,660 2,300 (13.5) 122,704 6,518 7,525 18.8 16.3 2.9 2.5 N.A. N.A. 16.1 15.5 1.6 1.8
ARTO Neutral 2,670 3,100 16.1 36,996 166 364 223.3 101.5 4.3 4.2 N.A. N.A. 154.6 120.0 0.0 0.0
BNGA Buy 1,995 2,300 15.3 49,744 6,831 7,598 7.3 6.5 1.0 0.9 N.A. N.A. 10.6 11.2 8.2 9.2
BFIN Buy 1,295 1,500 15.8 19,476 1,948 2,329 10.0 8.4 1.9 1.7 N.A. N.A. 18.3 19.6 5.0 6.0
AMOR Buy 970 1,500 54.6 2,156 110 118 19.5 18.2 7.4 7.3 14.4 13.5 19.3 7.0 5.0 5.4
Construction & materials 151,936 10,613 12,515 14.0 12.2 1.0 0.9 9.5 8.6 25.0 15.1 3.1 3.3
AVIA Buy 545 670 22.9 33,765 1,659 1,729 20.3 19.5 3.4 3.3 15.4 14.5 7.0 4.2 4.3 4.6
INTP Buy 8,550 12,010 40.5 29,357 2,228 2,560 13.2 11.5 1.3 1.1 6.2 5.0 9.6 14.9 0.0 0.0
SMGR Buy 5,650 8,530 51.0 38,146 3,142 3,493 12.1 10.9 0.8 0.8 5.5 5.1 17.9 11.2 4.9 5.8
ADHI Neutral 310 530 71.0 3,311 171 289 19.3 11.4 0.4 0.4 7.5 6.3 84.1 68.6 0.0 0.0
PTPP Buy 555 700 26.1 3,441 378 525 9.1 6.6 0.3 0.3 8.2 7.8 35.9 39.1 2.4 14.3
WIKA Neutral 240 580 141.7 2,150 137 214 15.7 10.0 0.2 0.2 13.5 12.7 N/M 56.6 1.3 2.0
WSKT Neutral 202 220 8.9 2,703 -443 41 -13.1 142.6 0.3 0.3 33.8 23.3 38.4 N/M 0.0 0.0
WTON Neutral 110 170 54.5 959 228 261 4.2 3.7 0.2 0.2 2.2 2.1 7.7 14.4 6.6 7.1
JSMR Buy 5,250 5,800 10.5 38,104 3,114 3,403 12.2 11.2 1.2 1.1 9.3 8.5 39.0 9.3 3.3 1.6
Consumer staples 602,796 51,713 54,659 11.7 11.0 2.2 2.1 8.2 7.5 13.4 5.7 4.5 5.2
CMRY Buy 4,530 5,800 28.0 35,944 1,540 1,852 23.3 19.4 5.3 4.6 17.0 13.8 24.1 20.2 1.9 2.4
ICBP Buy 11,000 13,800 25.5 128,281 10,914 10,501 11.8 12.2 2.5 2.2 9.5 8.6 20.3 -3.8 2.8 3.3
INDF Buy 6,425 7,600 18.3 56,411 10,992 10,713 5.1 5.3 0.8 0.7 5.2 4.7 18.8 -2.5 5.2 6.2
MYOR Buy 2,530 3,550 40.3 56,568 3,373 3,790 16.8 14.9 3.3 2.9 10.5 9.3 5.6 12.4 2.3 2.4
UNVR Neutral 2,740 2,800 2.2 104,531 4,954 5,822 21.1 18.0 30.0 24.4 14.6 12.6 3.2 17.5 4.6 4.7
GGRM Buy 19,600 32,650 66.6 37,712 6,539 7,401 5.8 5.1 0.6 0.6 3.5 3.4 11.1 13.2 8.2 11.5
HMSP Buy 850 1,070 25.9 98,870 9,244 10,132 10.7 9.8 3.2 3.1 8.0 7.2 9.9 9.6 8.5 9.3
KLBF Neutral 1,415 1,530 8.1 66,328 3,046 3,236 21.8 20.5 2.9 2.7 13.7 12.9 9.4 6.2 2.2 2.4
SIDO Buy 605 690 14.0 18,150 1,110 1,212 16.4 15.0 5.1 4.9 11.5 10.6 16.7 9.2 5.1 5.9
Healthcare 85,856 2,950 3,351 29.1 25.6 4.4 4.0 13.4 11.9 17.6 13.6 1.2 1.4
MIKA Neutral 2,650 3,000 13.2 37,753 1,097 1,214 34.4 31.1 5.8 5.3 21.7 19.4 14.3 10.7 1.3 1.5
SILO Buy 2,260 2,980 31.9 29,394 1,184 1,334 24.8 22.0 3.4 3.1 10.2 9.3 12.8 12.6 1.3 1.5
HEAL Buy 1,250 1,880 50.4 18,709 669 803 28.0 23.3 4.3 3.8 10.8 9.2 33.9 19.9 0.9 1.3
Consumer discretionary 346,954 45,080 48,521 7.7 7.2 1.1 1.0 5.4 4.8 -0.4 7.6 5.5 5.3
ACES Buy 845 970 14.8 14,492 875 1,017 16.6 14.3 2.2 2.0 11.3 9.5 15.9 16.2 2.6 3.0
LPPF Neutral 1,695 1,710 0.9 3,831 705 743 5.4 5.2 13.5 6.9 3.2 2.8 4.4 5.4 11.8 12.3
MAPA Buy 1,010 963 (4.7) 28,789 1,656 2,037 17.4 14.1 3.9 3.0 10.5 8.3 23.1 23.0 0.0 0.0
MAPI Buy 1,825 2,480 35.9 30,295 2,625 3,317 11.5 9.1 2.4 1.9 5.6 4.2 24.0 26.4 0.0 0.0
RALS Neutral 478 500 4.6 3,392 259 284 13.1 11.9 0.9 0.9 5.6 4.7 1.7 9.6 6.6 6.7
ERAA Buy 424 540 27.4 6,763 980 1,206 6.9 5.6 0.9 0.8 5.6 4.8 18.6 23.1 4.4 5.2
CNMA Buy 222 315 41.9 18,503 1,088 1,415 17.0 13.1 2.6 2.3 7.1 5.2 77.0 30.0 1.2 2.1
ASII Buy 5,225 8,000 53.1 211,527 29,732 30,759 7.1 6.9 0.9 0.9 5.6 5.1 -7.5 3.5 6.8 6.3
AUTO Buy 2,230 2,900 30.0 10,748 1,752 1,953 6.1 5.5 0.8 0.7 5.7 4.8 8.4 11.4 6.0 6.5
DRMA Buy 1,050 1,800 71.4 4,941 715 788 6.9 6.3 2.2 1.8 5.1 4.4 13.0 10.2 5.8 6.4
SCMA Neutral 148 430 190.5 9,362 1,740 1,926 5.4 4.9 1.5 1.3 3.8 3.3 12.2 10.7 8.4 10.3
MNCN Buy 326 1,300 298.8 4,313 2,953 3,077 1.5 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 7.6 4.2 27.4 28.5
Commodities 1,095,016 72,747 61,042 15.0 17.9 2.3 2.2 7.8 8.8 -8.5 -16.1 2.1 1.7
UNTR Neutral 24,375 27,000 10.8 90,149 14,183 14,061 6.4 6.4 1.1 1.0 2.3 1.9 -29.6 -0.9 6.3 6.2
ADRO* Neutral 2,630 2,700 2.7 84,123 1,021 627 5.7 9.3 0.9 0.9 1.5 2.2 -32.2 -38.6 8.8 5.4
INDY* Neutral 1,470 2,700 83.7 7,659 207 161 2.6 3.3 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.7 -24.8 -21.9 9.8 7.6
ITMG* Neutral 27,225 25,000 (8.2) 29,854 303 151 6.8 13.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.3 -46.3 -50.1 11.8 5.9
Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth (%) Div.Yield (%)
Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025 2024 2025
PTBA Neutral 2,930 2,500 (14.7) 33,761 4,380 3,770 7.7 8.9 1.4 1.4 4.8 5.5 -4.9 -13.9 6.5 5.6
HRUM* Buy 1,395 1,600 14.7 17,902 159 230 7.8 5.4 1.3 1.1 4.6 3.0 -0.2 44.5 2.6 3.7
ANTM Buy 1,660 2,000 20.5 39,891 2,542 3,449 15.7 11.6 1.4 1.3 10.2 7.5 -31.5 35.7 2.2 3.0
AMMN* Buy 8,900 4,200 (52.8) 640,051 1,258 792 35.1 55.8 7.7 6.8 19.9 27.8 739.0 -37.1 0.0 0.0
INCO* Buy 4,180 5,500 31.6 41,534 151 169 19.0 17.0 1.1 1.0 6.1 6.0 -45.1 12.1 0.0 0.0
MDKA* Buy 2,250 3,700 64.4 54,249 40 41 92.8 90.8 3.6 3.4 17.4 14.0 444.0 2.2 0.0 0.0
NCKL Buy 885 1,150 29.9 55,842 6,142 8,282 9.1 6.7 2.0 1.7 7.1 5.3 5.2 34.9 3.3 4.4
Property & Industrial Estate 86,498 9,763 10,394 8.9 8.3 0.7 0.7 6.2 5.7 15.3 6.5 1.7 1.8
BSDE Buy 970 1,560 60.8 20,536 2,447 2,371 8.4 8.7 0.5 0.5 7.0 6.8 0.4 -3.1 0.0 0.0
CTRA Buy 1,280 1,610 25.8 23,757 2,165 2,318 11.0 10.2 1.1 1.0 7.1 6.8 23.9 7.1 1.2 1.5
SMRA Buy 510 1,020 100.0 8,419 1,050 1,183 8.0 7.1 0.8 0.7 5.5 4.9 22.6 12.7 0.0 0.0
PWON Buy 408 670 64.2 19,649 2,156 2,188 9.1 9.0 0.9 0.9 6.6 6.3 4.7 1.5 1.5 1.5
LPKR Neutral 69 110 59.7 4,891 833 1,216 5.9 4.0 0.3 0.3 4.3 3.6 163.2 46.0 0.0 0.0
DMAS Neutral 165 160 (3.0) 7,953 1,005 994 7.9 8.0 1.3 1.3 7.0 7.0 13.5 -1.0 11.4 11.3
BEST Neutral 134 130 (3.0) 1,293 108 125 11.9 10.4 0.3 0.3 11.7 7.4 -36.1 15.4 0.0 0.0
Telecom 656,207 41,794 45,294 15.7 14.5 2.3 2.2 6.0 5.6 10.3 8.4 3.4 3.7
EXCL Buy 2,470 3,000 21.5 32,288 1,684 2,114 19.2 15.3 1.2 1.1 4.4 4.1 30.2 25.6 1.4 2.4
TLKM Buy 3,940 4,500 14.2 390,305 27,867 29,124 14.0 13.4 2.5 2.4 5.4 5.0 5.8 4.5 4.3 4.5
ISAT Buy 12,050 12,500 3.7 97,156 4,861 5,950 20.0 16.3 2.8 2.5 5.9 5.5 35.1 22.4 1.5 1.8
MTEL Buy 615 1,000 62.6 50,832 2,144 2,325 23.7 21.9 1.5 1.4 8.8 8.1 9.9 8.4 3.4 3.7
TBIG Buy 1,900 2,500 31.6 43,048 1,586 1,789 27.1 24.1 3.6 3.4 12.4 11.8 6.7 12.8 1.8 2.1
TOWR Buy 855 1,500 75.4 42,578 3,652 3,992 11.7 10.7 2.3 2.0 8.3 7.7 14.0 9.3 2.8 2.8
Transportation 4,329 542 627 8.0 6.9 0.7 0.6 4.7 4.2 12.6 15.7 0.0 0.0
BIRD Buy 1,730 2,180 26.0 4,329 542 627 8.0 6.9 0.7 0.6 4.7 4.2 12.6 15.7 0.0 0.0
Poultry 103,268 7,210 8,556 14.3 12.1 2.1 2.0 8.5 7.5 52.4 18.7 2.7 4.3
CPIN Buy 5,325 6,800 27.7 87,319 5,006 5,956 17.4 14.7 2.8 2.6 11.2 9.7 49.9 19.0 2.7 4.3
JPFA Buy 1,255 1,600 27.5 14,717 2,059 2,336 7.1 6.3 1.0 0.9 4.6 4.2 49.2 13.5 2.8 4.2
MAIN Neutral 550 520 (5.5) 1,231 146 264 8.5 4.7 0.5 0.5 6.1 4.9 1,189.5 81.1 2.4 4.3
Oil and Gas 115,708 9,828 10,476 11.7 11.0 1.4 1.3 6.1 6.2 -2.9 6.6 5.0 5.3
AKRA Buy 1,785 1,700 (4.8) 35,831 2,485 2,567 14.2 13.7 2.7 2.5 9.5 9.0 -0.1 3.3 3.8 3.9
PGEO* Neutral 1,180 1,300 10.2 48,847 154 171 21.9 19.7 1.7 1.6 11.4 11.0 2.0 10.8 2.3 2.5
PGAS* Neutral 1,280 1,600 25.0 31,029 352 375 6.1 5.7 0.7 0.7 3.4 3.5 2.2 6.4 10.7 11.4
Internet 92,310 -7,367 -5,928 -12.5 -15.8 0.7 0.7 -9.8 -14.4 -43.0 -19.5 0.0 0.0
BUKA Buy 142 300 111.3 14,635 603 724 24.3 20.2 0.5 0.5 -34.5 -21.6 N/M 20.2 0.0 0.0
GOTO Buy 72 125 73.6 77,675 -7,970 -6,652 -9.7 -11.9 0.7 0.7 -10.6 -15.0 39.0 17.8 0.0 0.0
Conglomerates 19,669 1,489 1,405 13.2 14.0 0.3 0.3 12.3 12.9 -34.2 -5.6 1.9 1.9
SRTG Buy 1,450 3,400 134.5 19,669 1,489 1,405 13.2 14.0 0.3 0.3 12.3 12.9 -34.2 -5.6 1.9 1.9
Note:
- *) net profit in USD mn
- U/R means Under Review
- n/a means Not Available
- N/M means Not Meaningful
- N.A means Not Applicable
RESEARCH
Adrian Joezer Head of Equity Research, [email protected] +6221 5296 9415
Equity Strategy, Consumer, Internet
Ariyanto Kurniawan Automotive, Coal, Metal Mining [email protected] +6221 5296 9682
Kresna Hutabarat Banking [email protected] +6221 5296 9542
Robin Sutanto Property, Building Material, Cement [email protected] +6221 5296 9572
Inggrid Gondoprastowo, CFA Healthcare, Consumer, Retail [email protected] +6221 5296 9450
Henry Tedja, CFA Telecom, Media, Oil & Gas [email protected] +6221 5296 9434
Farah Rahmi Oktaviani Construction, Poultry, Transportation [email protected] +6221 5296 9623
Boby Kristanto Chandra Banking, Financial Services [email protected] +6221 5296 9544
Eimi Setiawan Cigarette, Retail, Entertainment [email protected] +6221 5296 9549
Jennifer Audrey Harjono Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9617
Danif Nouval Esfandiari Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9580
Vanessa Taslim Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9687
Rangga Cipta Chief Economist [email protected] +6221 5296 9406
Raden Rami Ramdana Economist [email protected] +6221 5296 9651
INSTITUTIONAL SALES
Liliana S Bambang Head of Equity Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Feliciana Ramonda Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Sharon Anastasia Tjahjadi Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Angga Aditya Assaf Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Ilona Carissa Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Anindita Nadia Taufany Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Wisnu Budhiargo Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Jane Theodoven Sukardi Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Michael Taarea Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Reinard Agustinus Barus Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375
RETAIL SALES
Yulius Kurniawan Head of Retail Sales & Distribution [email protected] 6221 526 3445
Boy Triyono Jakarta [email protected] 6221 5296 5678
Care Center Online Jakarta [email protected] 14032
Ruwie Medan [email protected] 6261 8050 1825
Linawati Surabaya [email protected] 6231 535 7218
Maulidia Osviana Lampung [email protected] 62721 476 135
Aidil Idham Palembang [email protected] 62711 319 900
Ardelia Tristianty Suardi Bandung [email protected] 6222 426 5088
Yuri Ariadi Pontianak [email protected] 62561 582 293
Yogiswara Perdana Yogyakarta [email protected] 62274 560 596
Achmad Rasyid Bali [email protected] 62361 475 3066
Dedi Aprihadi Satriyo Makasar [email protected] 0411 361 5073
Ariffianto Priority [email protected] 6221 526 3445
www.most.co.id [email protected] 14032
INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last published report, are: Buy (15% or higher), Neutral
(-15% to15%) and Sell (-15% or lower).
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