Unit 1.2
Unit 1.2
Unit 1.2
• They approach the study of the economy in much the same way as a
physicist approaches the study of matter and a biologist approaches
the study of life: They devise theories, collect data, and then analyze
these data in an attempt to verify or refute their theories.
• the scientific method—the dispassionate development and testing of
theories about how the world works.
• This method of inquiry is as applicable to studying a nation’s economy
as it is to studying the earth’s gravity or a species’ evolution.
• Isaac Newton, the famous seventeenth-century scientist and
mathematician, allegedly became intrigued one day when he saw an
apple fall from an apple tree
• Newton to develop a theory of gravity that applies not only to an
apple falling to the earth but to any two objects in the universe.
• An economist might live in a country experiencing rapid increases in
prices and be moved by this observation to develop a theory of
inflation.
• The theory might assert that high inflation arises when the
government prints too much money.
• To test this theory, the economist could collect and analyze data on
prices and money from many different countries. If growth in the
quantity of money were not at all related to the rate at which prices
are rising, the economist would start to doubt the validity of his theory
of inflation.
• If money growth and inflation were strongly correlated in
international data, as in fact they are, the economist would become
more confident in his theory.
• Physicists studying gravity can drop many objects in their laboratories
to generate data to test their theories.
• By contrast, economists studying inflation are not allowed to
manipulate a nation’s monetary policy simply to generate useful data.
• Economists, like astronomers and evolutionary biologists, usually
have to make do with whatever data the world happens to give them
• When a war in the Middle East interrupts the flow of crude oil, for
instance, oil prices skyrocket around the world.
• For consumers of oil and oil products, such an event depresses living
standards.
• For economic policymakers, it poses a difficult choice about how best
to respond.
• But for economic scientists, it provides an opportunity to study the
effects of a key natural resource on the world’s economies, and this
opportunity persists long after the wartime increase in oil prices is
over.
Assumptions
• Economists make assumptions for the same reason: Assumptions can
make the world easier to understand. To study the effects of
international trade, for example, we may assume that the world
consists of only two countries and that each country produces only
two goods.
• Of course, the real world consists of dozens of countries, each of
which produces thousands of different types of goods.
• But by assuming two countries and two goods, we can focus our
thinking.
• Once we under-stand international trade in an imaginary world with
two countries and two goods, we are in a better position to
understand international trade in the more complex world in which
we live.
Assumptions
• Similarly, economists use different assumptions to answer different
questions.
• Suppose that we want to study what happens to the economy when
the government changes the number of dollars in circulation. An
important piece of this analysis, it turns out, is how prices respond.
• Many prices in the economy change infrequently; the newsstand
prices of magazines, for instance, are changed only every few years.
Assumptions
• Knowing this fact may lead us to make different assumptions
• when studying the effects of the policy change over different time
horizons.
• For studying the short-run effects of the policy, we may assume that prices
do not change much.
• We may even make the extreme and artificial assumption that all prices are
completely fixed.
• For studying the long-run effects of the policy, however, we may assume
that all prices are completely flexible.
• Just as a physicist uses different assumptions when studying falling marbles
and falling beach balls, economists use different assumptions when
studying the short-run and long-run effects of a change in the quantity of
money.
Economic Models
• The economy consists of millions of people engaged in many
activities—buying, selling, working, hiring, manufacturing, and so on.