2049 上銀 NMR 20240228
2049 上銀 NMR 20240228
2049 上銀 NMR 20240228
extended, and for some products it is more than 2 months vs 1-2 months a quarter ago;
UTR after Chinese New Year began to rise; 2) Outlook: management said 2H24E sales y-y Relative performance chart
growth should turn positive with full-year growth of double-digit %, thanks to a demand
recovery in the China market, particularly for semiconductor equipment, aerospace, heavy
equipment, factory automation, and NEV-related products. Whether 1Q24E sales y-y growth
will turn positive and when Europe demand will recover remain uncertain; 2024E quarterly
GM should not be as low as 4Q23, according to management.
Worst is behind; earnings growth upcycle should arrive in 2024/25F
4Q23 results missed, but we believe Hiwin’s operating profit y-y growth up-cycle should
arrive in 2Q24F after seven quarters of recession, supported by management’s
aforementioned comments. We also note: 1) global PMIs bottomed in late 2023, with US
ISM manufacturing PMI up from 46.7 in Nov-23 to 49.1 in Jan-24, Euro Zone PMI up from
43.1 in Oct-23 to 46.6 in Jan-24, and China Caixin manufacturing PMI up from 49.5 in Oct-
23 to 50.8 in Jan-24; 2) THK’s (6481 JP, Buy) positive outlook for 2H24E: the company’s Source: LSEG, Nomura
latest sales outlook indicated that its 2H24E sales will be JPY174bn, +18% y-y/+16% h-h.
As Hiwin’s quarterly sales are highly correlated with that of THK, we believe this implies an Research Analysts
increase in Hiwin’s sales momentum in 2024F (we expect Hiwin’s 1H24F/2H24F sales to
Taiwan Industrials
grow 4%/21% y-y). We believe Hiwin’s improved order visibility should be a favorable factor
Kenny Chen - NITB
for the company’s sales and ASP stabilization, and thus, for margin expansion in 2024/25F
[email protected]
vs 2023, leading to 52%/43% 2024/25F operating profit y-y growth (vs -52% in 2023). +886 2 21769978
Cut 2024/25F earnings estimates by 13%/9%; maintain Buy, TP hiked to TWD342
Our new TP of TWD342 (TWD279 earlier) is based on 27x 2025F EPS of TWD12.66 (vs
27x 2024F EPS previously). We roll over the valuation multiple to 2025F earnings as we
believe the earnings y-y growth upcycle usually lasts for 8-9 quarters given the historical
patterns. The stock is currently trading at 28x/20x 2024/25F EPS.
See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-US analysts.
Nomura | Hiwin Technologies Corp 28 February 2024
2
Nomura | Hiwin Technologies Corp 28 February 2024
Company profile
Hiwin is primarily engaged in professional design/development and manufacturing of motion control components/products, such as ballscrews, linear
guides, industrial robots, rolling bearings and medical treatment equipment products.
Valuation Methodology
Our target price of TWD342 is based on 27x FY25F EPS of TWD12.66, which is at the low end of the 15-56x range since 2014. The benchmark
index for Hiwin is TAIEX.
ESG
Hiwin has introduced and adopted the concept of environmental protection into the decisive processes of innovation, manufacturing and service of
products, adoption of raw material, and abandonment of waste material.
3
Nomura | Hiwin Technologies Corp 28 February 2024
Nomura
TWDmn 4Q23 Diff% Consensus Diff(%) 3Q23 q-q (%) 4Q22 y-y (%)
estimates
Total sales 5,758 5,898 -2% 5,951 -3% 6,558 -12% 5,592 3%
Gross profit 1,516 1,898 -20% 1,905 -20% 2,182 -31% 1,823 -17%
Operating profit 179 660 -73% 708 -75% 944 -81% 500 -64%
Pretax profit 286 647 -56% 704 -59% 793 -64% 580 -51%
Net profit 333 530 -37% 557 -40% 631 -47% 459 -28%
EPS (TWD) 0.94 1.50 -37% 1.57 -40% 1.78 -47% 1.30 -28%
(pp) (pp) (pp) (pp)
Gross margin (%) 26.3 32.2 (5.8) 32.0 (5.7) 33.3 (6.9) 32.6 (6.3)
Operating margin (%) 3.1 11.2 (8.1) 11.9 (8.8) 14.4 (11.3) 8.9 (5.8)
Pretax margin (%) 5.0 11.0 (6.0) 11.8 (6.9) 12.1 (7.1) 10.4 (5.4)
Net margin (%) 5.8 9.0 (3.2) 9.4 (3.6) 9.6 (3.8) 8.2 (2.4)
Source: Company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P. consensus forecasts, Nomura estimates
TWDmn 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23
Ballscrew 784 1,055 1,009 1,104 1,183 1,384 1,612 1,561 1,536 1,893 1,699 1,183 1,098 1,251 1,246 1,094
Linear guide 2,292 3,710 3,860 4,106 3,818 4,535 4,927 4,173 5,040 5,205 5,092 3,402 3,693 4,279 4,394 3,627
Industrial robot 207 508 626 523 404 575 509 398 509 605 578 560 417 461 393 461
Others 331 356 378 418 586 555 482 563 481 532 552 447 526 592 525 576
As % of total sales
Ballscrew 22% 19% 17% 18% 20% 20% 21% 23% 20% 23% 21% 21% 19% 19% 19% 19%
Linear guide 63% 66% 66% 67% 64% 64% 65% 62% 67% 63% 64% 61% 64% 65% 67% 63%
Industrial robot 6% 9% 11% 9% 7% 8% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 10% 7% 7% 6% 8%
Others 9% 6% 6% 7% 10% 8% 6% 8% 6% 6% 7% 8% 9% 9% 8% 10%
y-y
Ballscrew -11% 10% 11% 37% 51% 31% 60% 41% 30% 37% 5% -24% -29% -34% -27% -8%
Linear guide -34% -15% 17% 60% 67% 22% 28% 2% 32% 15% 3% -18% -27% -18% -14% 7%
Industrial robot -7% 21% 36% 77% 95% 13% -19% -24% 26% 5% 14% 41% -18% -24% -32% -18%
Others -30% -2% -8% 17% 77% 56% 27% 35% -18% -4% 14% -21% 9% 11% -5% 29%
q-q
Ballscrew -2% 35% -4% 9% 7% 17% 16% -3% -2% 23% -10% -30% -7% 14% 0% -12%
Linear guide -10% 62% 4% 6% -7% 19% 9% -15% 21% 3% -2% -33% 9% 16% 3% -17%
Industrial robot -30% 145% 23% -16% -23% 42% -11% -22% 28% 19% -4% -3% -26% 11% -15% 17%
Others -7% 7% 6% 11% 40% -5% -13% 17% -15% 11% 4% -19% 18% 13% -11% 10%
TWDmn 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23
Taiwan 361 338 294 369 479 634 678 536 681 576 475 336 287 263 328 288
Asia 1,771 3,996 4,170 4,306 3,715 4,582 4,819 4,218 4,767 5,435 5,228 3,299 3,096 4,279 4,197 3,685
Europe 1,193 1,013 1,116 1,169 1,438 1,551 1,657 1,540 1,740 1,812 1,743 1,510 1,950 1,712 1,705 1,439
America 289 281 294 308 359 282 377 402 378 412 475 447 401 329 328 345
As % of total sales
Taiwan 10% 6% 5% 6% 8% 9% 9% 8% 9% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 5% 5%
Asia 49% 71% 71% 70% 62% 65% 64% 63% 63% 66% 66% 59% 54% 65% 64% 64%
Europe 33% 18% 19% 19% 24% 22% 22% 23% 23% 22% 22% 27% 34% 26% 26% 25%
America 8% 5% 5% 5% 6% 4% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 8% 7% 5% 5% 6%
y-y
Taiwan -35% -8% -17% 15% 33% 88% 131% 45% 42% -9% -30% -37% -58% -54% -31% -14%
Asia -31% 1% 31% 85% 110% 15% 16% -2% 28% 19% 8% -22% -35% -21% -20% 12%
Europe -24% -31% -12% 12% 21% 53% 48% 32% 21% 17% 5% -2% 12% -6% -2% -5%
America -18% -8% 16% -4% 24% 0% 28% 31% 5% 46% 26% 11% 6% -20% -31% -23%
q-q
Taiwan 13% -7% -13% 26% 30% 32% 7% -21% 27% -15% -18% -29% -15% -8% 25% -12%
Asia -24% 126% 4% 3% -14% 23% 5% -12% 13% 14% -4% -37% -6% 38% -2% -12%
Europe 14% -15% 10% 5% 23% 8% 7% -7% 13% 4% -4% -13% 29% -12% 0% -16%
America -10% -3% 4% 5% 17% -22% 34% 7% -6% 9% 15% -6% -10% -18% 0% 5%
4
Nomura | Hiwin Technologies Corp 28 February 2024
Fig. 7: THK: Quarterly order trends Fig. 8: THK: Quarterly order trends by end-
application
5
Nomura | Hiwin Technologies Corp 28 February 2024
Valuation
Our new TP of TWD342 is based on 27x 2025F EPS of TWD342 (vs 27x 2024F EPS
previously; historical average of 30x since 2014, with a range of 15-56x). We note that
Hiwin’s share price tends to bottom out after seeing y-y sales growth turns positive in the
past four cycles, and we believe starting from Nov-23, the pattern will be repeated. We
believe our assigned P/E of 27x 2025F EPS is justified as the company’s forward-looking
P/E has rerated to above 30x in the past earnings y-y growth upcycles.
6
Nomura | Hiwin Technologies Corp 28 February 2024
Fig. 11: Hiwin: Market cap vs op profit Fig. 12: Hiwin: Market cap vs op profit y-y
growth
Fig. 13: Hiwin: 12M forward-looking P/E Fig. 14: Hiwin: 12M forward-looking P/B
Source: Company data, Nomura estimates Source: Company data, Nomura estimates
Code Company Price Nomura Mkt cap P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) EPS growth (%) Yield (%)
27-Feb Rating US$m FY23F FY24F FY25F FY23F FY24F FY25F FY23F FY24F FY25F FY23F FY24F FY25F FY23F
Automation
2049 TT Hiwin 254.5 Buy 2,849 44.3 28.3 20.1 2.6 2.4 2.2 5.8 8.8 11.6 (54.6) 56.4 40.7 2.2
1590 TT Airtac 1,100 Buy 6,869 31.6 26.1 21.6 5.2 4.7 4.2 17.1 18.8 20.5 15.8 20.9 21.2 1.4
6273 JP SMC 90,260 Buy 40,256 34.1 27.3 23.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 9.7 11.2 11.9 (23.2) 25.0 16.5 1.0
6481 JP THK 3,296 Buy 2,830 22.0 21.4 13.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 5.3 5.2 8.1 (13.1) 2.7 64.0 1.4
6954 JP Fanuc 4,375 Buy 29,259 33.7 31.7 24.3 2.6 2.5 2.5 7.7 8.0 10.3 (27.3) 6.2 30.7 1.8
6506 JP Yaskawa 6,180 Buy 10,955 33.6 31.1 25.1 4.3 3.9 3.5 13.2 13.1 14.8 (7.1) 7.9 24.3 1.0
Average 31.0 27.5 21.5 3.3 3.0 2.8 10.6 11.3 13.1 (11.0) 12.5 31.3 1.3
7
Nomura | Hiwin Technologies Corp 28 February 2024
Appendix A-1
Analyst Certification
I, Kenny Chen, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this Research report accurately reflect my personal views about
any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be
directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Research report and (3) no part of my
compensation is tied to any specific investment banking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc.,
Nomura International plc or any other Nomura Group company.
A1 The Nomura Group has received compensation for non-investment banking products or services from the subject company in the past 12
months.
A3 The Nomura Group has had a non-securities related services client relationship with the subject company during the past 12 months.
A4 The Nomura Group has had an investment banking services client relationship with the subject company during the past 12 months.
A5 The Nomura Group has received compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the past 12 months.
A6 The Nomura Group expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the
next three months.
A11 The Nomura Group beneficially owns 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the subject company.
Hiwin Technologies Corp (2049 TT) TWD 254.50 (27-Feb-2024) Buy (Sector rating: N/A)
Rating and target price chart (three year history)
Date Rating Target price Closing price
13-Nov-23 279.00 211.00
10-Aug-23 280.00 201.50
11-May-23 312.00 232.00
28-Feb-23 Buy 251.00
28-Feb-23 309.00 251.00
21-Nov-22 Neutral 180.50
21-Nov-22 189.00 180.50
17-Jun-22 Suspended 239.31
28-Feb-22 319.00 261.56
10-Dec-21 361.00 288.75
05-Nov-21 415.00 314.46
05-Aug-21 465.00 329.30
03-Mar-21 525.00 403.23
For explanation of ratings refer to the stock rating keys located after chart(s)
Valuation Methodology Our target price of TWD342 is based on 27x FY25F EPS of TWD12.66, which is at the low end of the
15-56x range since 2014. The benchmark index for Hiwin is TAIEX.
Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price Downside risks: 1) Hard landings in major countries such as the
US and Euro Zone, which may significantly undermine consumer sentiment and manufacturers’ utilization rates; 2) significant
rebound of global CPI/PPI that may cause further interest rate hikes, which may lift the pressure of enterprises’ refinancing
activities, and thus postpone Capex; 3) TWD appreciation may lower some Hiwin products’ competitiveness compared with
Japanese peers.
8
Nomura | Hiwin Technologies Corp 28 February 2024
THK (6481 JP) JPY 3,280 (27-Feb-2024) Buy (Sector rating: N/A)
Rating and target price chart (three year history)
Date Rating Target price Closing price
21-Feb-24 3,700 3,121
11-Nov-23 3,100 2,769.5
10-Aug-23 3,000 2,717.5
06-Jun-23 3,500 3,097
24-Feb-23 Buy 2,957.0
24-Feb-23 3,450 2,957.0
28-Nov-22 2,610 2,732.0
13-Sep-22 2,800 2,800.0
30-May-22 Neutral 2,768.0
30-May-22 3,060 2,768.0
26-Nov-21 3,500 2,647.0
19-Aug-21 4,000 2,484.0
14-May-21 5,000 3,535
For explanation of ratings refer to the stock rating keys located after chart(s)
Valuation Methodology We obtain our target price of ¥3,700 by multiplying our 25/12 EPS forecast of ¥252.9 by a target P/E of
around 14–15x. We reference the peak P/E levels seen during previous periods of earnings recovery as well as the current
market P/E, as the company's earnings and share price show a strong correlation with the machinery demand cycle. We also
note that the automotive & transportation equipment segment generates low margins and earnings tend to be swayed by
automobile output, raw material prices, and demand in Europe and the Americas.
Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price The linear guide industry to which the company belongs is
exposed to capex in client industries. THK derives a substantial 35% of its sales from electronics companies, so profits would be
hit hard if capex were to fall sharply at semiconductor manufacturers and other electronics manufacturers. In such an event, the
share price could undershoot our target.
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9
Nomura | Hiwin Technologies Corp 28 February 2024
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10
Nomura | Hiwin Technologies Corp 28 February 2024
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Nomura | Hiwin Technologies Corp 28 February 2024
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