SSRN Id3857373
SSRN Id3857373
SSRN Id3857373
Abstract
In this paper we analyse the beneficiaries of productivity gains in the In-
dian banking sector during the period from 1992 to 2019. We document the
relative efficiency of different groups of banks by ownership. We find that
the Indian banking sector, particularly the public sector banks experienced
steady productivity growth from the mid 1990s till about 2010. We conduct
a detailed descriptive analysis to examine the various stakeholders that the
productivity gains have accrued to, over the years and across bank groups.
We conclude that most of the gains may have accrued to the shareholders
which for the public sector banks would mean the government. These gains
presumably helped reduce the burden on the government of capitalising the
public sector banks, especially during the 1997-2002 period of sharp rise in
non performing assets.
∗
Assistant Professor of Economics at Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research
(IGIDR), Film City Road, Goregaon East, Mumbai 400065. Email: [email protected]
†
Executive-In-Residence at the Centre of Financial Services, SP Jain Institute of Manage-
ment & Research, Munshi Nagar, Dadabhai Road, Andheri West, Mumbai 400058. Email ID:
[email protected].
A shorter version of this paper appeared as a blog article on Ideas for India.
Link: https://www.ideasforindia.in/topics/money-finance/productivity-growth-in-indian-banking-
who-gained.html
regional rural banks etc. In this paper we primarily focus on the scheduled commercial banks who
account for more than 95% of the credit and deposits in the entire banking system.
In 1991, India embarked upon a policy of economic liberalisation with the ob-
jective to gradually transition into a capitalist, free market economy. A strong
and stable banking system was critical to ensure economic growth. The policy
changes made between 1993 and 1995, ushered in a dramatic shift in banking in
India. New banking licenses were issued to private sector companies. These new
private sector banks started operations in the mid 1990s.
The new private sector banks introduced an element of competition in the In-
into SBI in 2018. We kept SBI and its subsidiaries as a separate group given that it is the biggest
and the most widely present bank (in terms of branches) and hence it might have some pricing
advantage.
The above discussion implies that in the post-reform period, the Indian banking
sector experienced significant productivity gains till about 2010. Stagnant produc-
tivity since 2010 suggests that the gains made have been permanently embedded
in the banking system i.e. they have not been diluted subsequently. It is therefore
important to understand who among the four categories of stakeholders (namely,
owners, depositors, borrowers and employees) benefitted from these producitivity
gains. In this section we analyse each of these four stakeholders and attempt to
assess their share of the productivity gains. In the absence of a plausible empirical
framework to assess this issue, we resort to descriptive analysis of the data, and
reserve a more rigorous investigation for the future.
Indian commercial banks offer three types of deposits - (i) demand deposits (com-
monly known as current account deposits and are similar to checking accounts in
the US), (ii) savings account deposits and (iii) term deposits (also known as fixed
deposits). Of these, demand deposits do not carry any interest. Until 2012, inter-
est rate on savings account deposits (accounting for roughly 25-30% of a bank’s
deposit base) was regulated by the government at 4%. Even after deregulation
most banks adhered to the old levels of 4%.6 Only the term deposits are priced
based on market conditions and their pricing reflects prevailing interest rates and
competitive dynamics in the deposit business.
This implies that if the depositors benefitted from productivity gains, we would
expect the term deposit pricing to improve over time relative to a suitable refer-
ence rate. Accordingly, in figure 5 we plot the annual average interest rate on term
deposits and the 5 year government security yield from 1997 to 2019.7 Average
maturity of term deposits in Indian banks is around 2.6 years (ranges between 2.5
to 2.8 years), and hence 5 year government security is the closest reference yield
with reliable data.8 The reason for using data from 1997 is that reliable data on
6 With the exception of two small private banks whose deposit market share was less than
2%. Presumably banks continued with the low deposit rates because no bank had the incentive to
compete on price. The gain in market share was potentially seen to be minimal and losses quite
high as the entire stock of savings accounts would have to be repriced.
7 Interest on term deposits is calculated as the difference between total interest on deposits and
interest on savings account (calculated at about 3.8% on average deposits). Interest rate of term
deposits is obtained as the ratio of interest on term deposits and average term deposits across two
consecutive years. While the rate on saving account is 4% effectively the rate works out to about
3.8% as banks take the average balance between the 5th and the 25th of each month. The analysis
does not change if we take the rate to be 4%.
8 The pattern of relative pricing and hence the conclusions do not change if we use the 10 year
10
due to the merger of a large Development Finance Institution (DFI) into a commercial bank. This
merger compelled the bank to raise large amount of deposits to meet its reserve requirements
(merger of erstwhile ICICI Ltd into ICICI Bank).
11
Bank borrowers are important stakeholders in the banking business and rightful
claimants to productivity gains. As in the case of the depositors, any sharing
ofproductivity gains by the borrowers should get reflected in the pricing of loans.
Loan prices should decline relative to an appropriate reference rate. In figure 7 we
plot the average yield on loans for all banks and the 10 year government security
yield for the period from 1997 to 2019.11
The figure shows that the loan prices have not declined relative to the G-Sec
rate and infact the loan pricing premium over the risk-free reference rate has been
more or less constant from 2005 onwards. This suggests that as in the case of
depositors, the borrowers too may not have received any share of the productivity
gains enjoyed by the banking system.
Loan prices typically include a risk premium and a maturity premium. Any
change in the average riskiness of borrowers or in the average maturity of the
loans would impact the loan premium. This implies that if during the period
under review, the average maturity of loans went up or the riskiness of the average
borrower increased, then even constant loan price premium might represent gains
to borrowers. However, the data shows that there has been no perceptible change
in average loan maturity, which has stayed constant at around 3 years. Riskiness
of the average loan is hard to assess purely from publicly available data. There is
however a case to be made, looking at the rapid build up of non performing loans
(NPLs) in the period from 2014 to 2018 that riskiness of loans was increasing
11 The pattern does not change if we use the 5 year G-Sec yield instead.
12
3.3 Employees
The next stakeholders that we consider are employees. Employee costs (wages
and salaries) are a component of the overall cost of intermediation. Hence pro-
ductivity growth measured as a reduction in the cost of intermediation would im-
ply that employee costs would come down but the important question is, by how
much on a relative scale. In figure 9 we plot the employee costs for the banking
system as a percentage of average total assets, and total income.
We find that there has been a secular decline in employee costs from about 2%
of average total assets to around 1%. As a percentage of total income, they have
come down from around 40% to roughly 30%. It is worth noting that the share of
employee costs in the total operating costs (not shown here) also came down from
around 70% to 50%.
Employee costs have come down largely because the number of employees
declined between 1991 and 2010. To evaluate the possible share of employees in
productivity gains of the banking system, we plot the real per employee wage cost
relative to the growth in real balance sheet of the entire banking sector from 1992
to 2019 in figure 10. 12 Our hypothesis is that if the employees had shared some
12 The real parameters are computed by deflating the nominal numbers by the consumer price
index.
13
3.4 Shareholders
The last stakeholders we consider are shareholders of the banks. For the PSBs,
the majority owner is the government which, by law, has to maintain at least 51%
14
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4 Conclusion
Our descriptive analysis from 1992 to 2019 reveals that banking sector in India ex-
perienced substantial productivity gains till about 2010 after which the gains seem
to have plateaued and even declined marginally in recent years. Among the bank
groups, private sector banks which primarily began operating from 1994-95 on-
wards in the post-liberalisation era, witnessed sharp reductions in their operating
costs even as their balance sheets expanded rapidly, indicating steady productiv-
ity improvement. These banks started on superior technology platforms which
may have contributed to the steep efficiency gains. However the benefits ran their
course by about mid 2000s. On the other hand, public sector banks witnessed
17
18
19
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latory reforms on cost structure, ownership and competition in Indian banking,”
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20
Kumar, Sunil and Rachita Gulati, “Did efficiency of Indian public sector banks
converge with banking reforms?,” International Review of Economics, March
2009, 56 (1), 47–84.
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21
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3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Figure 5 Term Deposit Pricing Relative to Risk Free Government Security Yield
This figure shows the annual average interest rate on term deposits of all banks and the yield of
5-year G-Secs for the period 1997 to 2019. Interest on term deposits is calculated as the difference
between total interest on deposits and interest on savings account (calculated at about 3.8% on
average deposits). Interest rate of term deposits is obtained as the ratio of interest on term deposits
and average term deposits between two years.
14
12
In percentage terms
10
8
6
4
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
24
10
8
6
4
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Figure 7 Average Loan Pricing relative to Risk Free Government Security Yield
This figure shows the annual average yield on loans for all commercial banks and the 10 year
government security yield. Average yield on loans is calculated as the ratio between interest
earned on loans and average total loans and advances across two consecutive years.
14
12
In percentage terms
10
8
6
4
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
25
26
Figure 10 Real Per Employee Compensation and Total Balance Sheet of the
Banking System
This figure shows the evolution over time of the total wages and salaries of employees of all com-
mercial banks and the total annual assets of the banks, both parameters deflated by the consumer
price index of the respective years.
27
28
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Ratio of operating cost to average total assets Ratio of PPOP to average total assets
29
30
31