This document discusses international financial management topics including exchange rates, forward exchange rates, interest rate parity, hedging international cash flows, and investing in foreign real assets.
This document discusses international financial management topics including exchange rates, forward exchange rates, interest rate parity, hedging international cash flows, and investing in foreign real assets.
This document discusses international financial management topics including exchange rates, forward exchange rates, interest rate parity, hedging international cash flows, and investing in foreign real assets.
This document discusses international financial management topics including exchange rates, forward exchange rates, interest rate parity, hedging international cash flows, and investing in foreign real assets.
If a company has monetary assets denominated in a foreign currency, it is exposed to the risk of exchange rate fluctuations. Purchasing power parity is an application of the assumption that free markets do not allow arbitrage opportunities to exist for long. Law of one price Exchange rates portray relationships in wealth exchanges across national borders in much the same manner as interest rates portray wealth exchanges across time. Exchange Rates Imperfections Frictions include: Transaction Cost Information Costs Perishability
Even with its imperfections, there is an impressive
elegance and consistency in exchange rates across currencies based on the general economics of international transactions. Forward Exchange Rates
By entering a forward exchange contract, a trader
commits to purchase or sell an amount of currency at a fixed rate at a fixed time in the future. The same result can be achieved by borrowing in the foreign currency, exchanging spot and investing the proceeds in the domestic currency. See example on page 11/7 Interest Rate Parity Interest rate parity ensures that borrowing or lending in one currency at the interest rates applying to that currency will produce the same final wealth as borrowing or lending in any other currency at the interest rates applying to the other currencies. Stated that way, the concept is almost self evidently necessary: interest rates must adjust to ensure such parity or there will be arbitrage opportunities. Relative interest rates = Relative forward exchange discount or premium Forward Exchange, Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations Maintaining purchasing power across time requires that the forward exchange rates for any two currencies be consistent with the inflation expected in those currencies. Nominal interest rate = Real interest rate + Effect of inflation (1 + nominal rate)n = (1 + Real rate)n x (1 + inflation rate)n The connection is that interest rate differentials are caused by inflation differentials, which are the root cause of the observed discount or premium on forward exchange. Hedging International Cash Flows Forward Contract Covered Borrowing Foreign Exchange Options Investing in Foreign Real Assets The basic process of deciding upon the financial viability of a foreign investment is the same as a domestic one: estimate the expected cash flows from the investment and discount at the investment’s cost of capital (or use the cost of capital as a hurdle rate for IRR analysis). 1. It can predict future exchange rates between sterling and Euro, apply those to the Euro future cashflow estimates, and discount future sterling cash flows to the present at the sterling discount rate. 2. Or it can discount future Euro cashflow estimates at the Euro discount rate and translate these Euro values to sterling values using the spot exchange rate. Extra risks in foreign investment Financial Sources for Foreign Investment Monetary assets are those whose returns are expected to be fixed in monetary or money terms in the future, regardless of the inflation rate in the economy. Only these are serious candidates for the hedging of exchange risk. Real assets are not fixed in foreign currency value, but will increase in value with increases in foreign inflation. This applies to plant and equipment, but also other longer-term productive assets.