Capital Budgeting
Capital Budgeting
Capital Budgeting
5. Supporting Strategic Goals: Capital budgeting aligns investment decisions with the
strategic objectives of the company. By investing in projects that align with the
company's long-term vision, goals, and core competencies, firms can ensure that their
investments contribute to sustainable growth and competitive advantage.
6. Ensuring Capital Adequacy: Capital budgeting also aims to ensure that the
company maintains adequate capital resources to support its ongoing operations,
expansion plans, and future investment opportunities. By balancing investments in
growth-oriented projects with the need to preserve financial stability, firms can
sustainably manage their capital structure and liquidity position.
IMPORTANCE OF CAPITAL BUDGETING
3. Risk Management: Capital budgeting involves assessing the risks associated with
investment projects, allowing businesses to identify and mitigate potential threats to
their financial health. Through risk analysis and evaluation, companies can make
more informed decisions and implement strategies to manage uncertainties
effectively.
Merits:
3. Focus on Cash Flows: These techniques primarily focus on cash flows, which are
essential for assessing the actual financial impact of an investment.
4. Consideration of Time Value of Money: NPV, IRR, and discounted payback period
explicitly consider the time value of money by discounting future cash flows,
providing a more accurate assessment of investment profitability.
Demerits:
4. Potential Misinterpretation: The use of single-point estimates for cash flows and
discount rates may lead to misinterpretation of results, especially when dealing with
complex projects or uncertain environments.
6. Ignoring Reinvestment Rate: Traditional techniques often assume that cash flows
generated by the project can be reinvested at the same rate as the discount rate, which
may not reflect reality.
1. PAYBACK PERIOD
The payback period method is one of the simplest techniques used in capital budgeting to
evaluate investment projects. It measures the time required for an investment to generate cash
flows sufficient to recover the initial investment cost. Here's how the payback period method
works:
1. Calculate Initial Investment: Determine the initial cash outlay required for the
investment project. This includes the cost of acquiring assets, installation expenses,
and any other associated costs.
2. Estimate Cash Flows: Estimate the cash inflows expected to be generated by the
investment project over its lifetime. These cash flows may include revenues, cost
savings, or other benefits attributable to the project.
3. Calculate Cumulative Cash Flows: Calculate the cumulative cash flows over time
by adding up the cash inflows received each period until the total equals or exceeds
the initial investment.
4. Identify Payback Period: Determine the time it takes for the cumulative cash flows
to equal the initial investment. The payback period is the point at which the initial
investment is fully recovered.
3. Risk Assessment: The payback period method provides insight into the risk
associated with an investment by indicating how long it takes to recover the initial
investment. Shorter payback periods generally indicate lower risk, as the investment
recovers its cost more quickly.
4. Decision Making: It can serve as a screening tool for investment projects, helping
companies prioritize projects with shorter payback periods. This can be especially
useful when a company needs to choose among several potential projects with limited
resources.
1. Ignoring Time Value of Money: The payback period method does not consider the
time value of money, meaning it ignores the fact that a dollar received today is worth
more than a dollar received in the future due to factors such as inflation and the
opportunity cost of capital.
2. Incomplete Measure: It only considers the time it takes to recover the initial
investment and does not account for cash flows beyond the payback period. As a
result, it provides an incomplete picture of a project's profitability and may lead to the
neglect of long-term benefits.
3. Subjectivity in Cutoff Period: The selection of the cutoff period for payback (e.g.,
three years, five years) is often arbitrary and subjective, leading to inconsistencies in
decision-making. Different managers may have different preferences for payback
periods, leading to potential biases.
4. Ignoring Cash Flow Timing: The payback period method treats cash flows
uniformly, ignoring the timing of cash inflows and outflows within each period.
Projects with uneven cash flow patterns may be incorrectly evaluated or compared.
5. Risk and Uncertainty Ignored: It does not consider the risk or uncertainty
associated with future cash flows, such as changes in market conditions, technology
obsolescence, or regulatory factors. Projects with shorter payback periods may appear
more favorable, even if they entail higher risk.
2. The Accounting Rate of Return (ARR) method
The Accounting Rate of Return (ARR) method, also known as the Average Rate of Return or
the Return on Investment (ROI) method, is a simple capital budgeting technique used to
evaluate the profitability of an investment project. Unlike other methods such as Net Present
Value (NPV) or Internal Rate of Return (IRR), the ARR method does not consider the time
value of money. Instead, it focuses solely on accounting profits generated by the investment
relative to the initial investment cost. Here's how the ARR method works:
The ARR is calculated as the average annual accounting profit generated by the investment
project divided by the average investment cost, expressed as a percentage. The formula for
ARR is as follows:
Where:
Average Net Profit = Average annual net income generated by the project, typically
calculated as the average of the net income over the project's useful life.
Average Investment = Average initial investment cost of the project, often calculated
as the initial investment cost + Salvage Value divided by 2.
2. Calculate Average Annual Accounting Profit: Find the average of the annual
accounting profits over the project's useful life.
3. Determine Initial Investment Cost: Determine the initial cost of the investment
project, including capital expenditures, installation costs, and any other associated
expenses.
4. Calculate Average Investment Cost: Divide the initial investment cost by the
project's useful life to find the average investment cost per year.
5. Compute ARR: Divide the average annual accounting profit by the average
investment cost and multiply by 100 to express the result as a percentage.
Interpretation of ARR:
If the ARR is greater than the required rate of return or the company's minimum
acceptable rate of return, the project is considered acceptable.
If the ARR is less than the required rate of return, the project may be rejected.
Advantages of ARR:
2. Uses Accounting Data: It relies on accounting profits, which are readily available
from financial statements.
Limitations of ARR:
1. Ignores Time Value of Money: ARR does not consider the time value of money,
which can lead to incorrect investment decisions.
2. Doesn't Account for Cash Flows: It ignores cash flows, focusing solely on
accounting profits, which may not reflect the economic reality of the investment.
4. Doesn't Consider Project Duration: It assumes that the project's cash flows and
accounting profits are uniform over its useful life, which may not be the case in
practice.
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW (DCF) TECHNIQUES OF CAPITAL BUDGETING
The discounted cash flow (DCF) technique is a financial valuation method used to estimate
the value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows. It involves discounting
those cash flows back to their present value using a discount rate.
Merits:
1. Incorporates the Time Value of Money: DCF takes into account the principle of the
time value of money, recognizing that a dollar received in the future is worth less than
a dollar received today due to factors like inflation and opportunity cost.
2. Focuses on Cash Flows: DCF focuses on the cash flows generated by an investment,
which is a more reliable measure of value than accounting profits, as it accounts for
actual cash movements.
Demerits:
2. Complexity: DCF analysis can be complex, requiring detailed financial modeling and
understanding of financial concepts such as discounting, perpetuity, and terminal
value calculation.
4. Ignoring Market Dynamics: DCF may overlook market dynamics and qualitative
factors such as competitive landscape, regulatory changes, and technological
advancements, which can significantly impact the future cash flows of an investment.
5. Difficulty in Choosing Discount Rate: Selecting an appropriate discount rate (cost of
capital) for discounting future cash flows is subjective and requires estimation,
leading to potential biases and errors in valuation.
The concept of NPV is based on the time value of money, which states that money available
today is worth more than the same amount in the future due to its potential earning capacity.
By discounting future cash flows to their present value, NPV takes into account the
opportunity cost of investing money in a project.
2. Accounting for Risk: NPV allows for the incorporation of risk by using a discount
rate that reflects the risk associated with the investment. This makes NPV a more
comprehensive method compared to techniques like payback period or accounting
rate of return, which do not explicitly consider risk.
3. Considers All Cash Flows: NPV considers all cash inflows and outflows associated
with a project over its entire life. This includes initial investment, operating cash
flows, salvage value, and any other relevant cash flows. By considering the entire
cash flow stream, NPV provides a more accurate picture of the project's profitability.
4. Decision Criteria: NPV provides a clear decision rule: if the NPV is positive, the
project is expected to generate more value than it costs, and thus it's considered
acceptable. If the NPV is negative, the project is not expected to generate sufficient
returns to cover its costs and should be rejected.
2. Assumption of Reinvestment Rate: NPV assumes that cash flows generated by the
project can be reinvested at the discount rate used in the analysis. However, in reality,
it may be difficult to find investment opportunities with the same rate of return,
leading to potential inaccuracies in NPV calculations.
4. Inflexibility with Mutually Exclusive Projects: NPV may not provide clear
guidance when evaluating mutually exclusive projects (projects where selecting one
precludes the selection of others). In such cases, NPV may favor projects with higher
absolute NPV, even if they have lower NPV per dollar invested, potentially leading to
suboptimal decision-making.
5. Ignoring Real Options: NPV assumes that investment decisions are irreversible,
ignoring the value of flexibility or options that may arise during the project's life. Real
options such as the option to expand, delay, or abandon a project have value but are
not explicitly considered in NPV analysis.
7. Bias towards Short-Term Projects: Since NPV discounts future cash flows, projects
with shorter payback periods may appear more favorable than longer-term projects,
even if the latter have higher overall profitability.
PROFITABILITY INDEX
The Profitability Index (PI) measures the ratio between the present value of future cash flows and
the initial investment. The index is a useful tool for ranking investment projects and showing the
value created per unit of investment.
Therefore:
If the PI is greater than 1, the project generates value and the company may want to
proceed with the project.
If the PI is less than 1, the project destroys value and the company should not proceed with
the project.
If the PI is equal to 1, the project breaks even and the company is indifferent between
proceeding or not proceeding with the project.
The higher the profitability index, the more attractive the investment.
3. Clear Decision Criterion: Like NPV, the Profitability Index provides a clear
decision rule: if the index is greater than 1, the project is expected to generate
more value than it costs, making it acceptable. If the index is less than 1, the
project is not expected to generate sufficient returns to cover its costs and
should be rejected.
4. Limited Consideration of Risk: While the Profitability Index accounts for the
time value of money, it may not explicitly consider the risk associated with the
investment. Projects with similar PI values may have different risk profiles,
which are not reflected in the index, potentially leading to suboptimal
decision-making.
5. Potential Bias towards Larger Projects: The Profitability Index may favor
larger projects with higher absolute cash flows, as they tend to have higher PI
values. This bias may overlook smaller projects with shorter payback periods
or higher returns on investment, leading to missed opportunities for value
creation.
6. Ignorance of Project Scale: The Profitability Index does not account for the
scale of the project. It may not distinguish between projects that require
significantly different initial investments but offer similar returns.
Consequently, it may not provide a comprehensive assessment of the project's
profitability relative to its scale.
7. Limited Consideration of Non-Monetary Factors: Like other quantitative
capital budgeting techniques, the Profitability Index may overlook qualitative
or non-monetary factors such as strategic alignment, environmental impact, or
social responsibility, which could be crucial considerations in investment
decisions.
Example: A company allocates $1,000,000 to spend on projects. The initial investment, present
value, and profitability index of these projects are as follows:
Discounted Pay Back Period
The discounted payback period is a financial metric used to evaluate the time it takes for an
investment to generate enough cash flows to recover its initial investment, taking into
account the time value of money by discounting those cash flows. Unlike the regular
payback period, which does not consider the time value of money, the discounted payback
period considers the present value of future cash flows.
Merits:
1. Considers Time Value of Money: Unlike the traditional payback period, which
ignores the time value of money, the discounted payback period accounts for the
present value of future cash flows. This makes it a more accurate measure of an
investment's profitability.
3. Provides Risk Assessment: By considering the time value of money, the discounted
payback period offers insights into the risk associated with an investment. Projects
with shorter discounted payback periods are generally less risky because they recover
the initial investment sooner.
Demerits:
1. Ignores Cash Flows Beyond Payback Period: Like the traditional payback period,
the discounted payback period focuses solely on the time it takes to recoup the initial
investment. It does not consider cash flows beyond the payback period, potentially
leading to an incomplete assessment of long-term profitability.
2. Dependent on Discount Rate: The choice of discount rate used in the calculation of
the discounted payback period can significantly impact the results. Different discount
rates may lead to different conclusions about the attractiveness of an investment,
making it somewhat subjective.
3. Doesn't Account for Reinvestment: The discounted payback period assumes that
cash flows received after the payback period are not reinvested, which may not reflect
real-world scenarios. Ignoring reinvestment opportunities can underestimate the true
profitability of an investment.
4. Doesn't Consider Profitability: While the discounted payback period indicates when
the initial investment is recovered, it doesn't provide information about the overall
profitability of the investment. An investment with a short payback period may still
have a low NPV or IRR, indicating poor profitability over the long term.
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is a financial metric used to evaluate the profitability of an
investment or project. It represents the discount rate at which the net present value (NPV) of
all cash flows from the investment equals zero. In simpler terms, it is the rate of return at
which the present value of cash inflows equals the present value of cash outflows.
1. Calculate the present value of all cash inflows and outflows associated with the
investment. This involves discounting each cash flow back to its present value using
the IRR as the discount rate.
2. Set up an equation where the sum of the present values of cash inflows equals the sum
of the present values of cash outflows.
3. Solve the equation to find the rate at which the NPV equals zero. This rate is the
Internal Rate of Return.
DCF- C0 = 0
1. Ease of Comparison: IRR provides a single percentage figure that allows for easy
comparison between different investment opportunities. This makes it simpler for
decision-makers to evaluate and prioritize projects.
2. Time Value of Money: IRR takes into account the time value of money by
discounting future cash flows back to their present value. This makes it a more
accurate measure of profitability than simple payback period.
3. Reflects Investment Risk: Since IRR considers the timing and magnitude of cash
flows, it reflects the risk associated with an investment. Higher IRR implies higher
potential returns, which can be appealing to investors seeking higher-risk investments.
4. Flexible: IRR can be used for various types of projects or investments, regardless of
their size or duration. It is applicable to both short-term and long-term projects.
5. Considers Reinvestment Rate: IRR assumes that cash flows received from the
investment are reinvested at the same rate as the IRR itself. This makes it more
realistic than some other metrics.
1. Multiple IRRs: In some cases, a project may have multiple IRRs, making
interpretation challenging. This can occur when the project has alternating periods of
positive and negative cash flows.
2. Assumes Reinvestment Rate: While IRR assumes that cash flows are reinvested at
the same rate as the IRR, this might not be realistic in practice. The actual
reinvestment rate may vary, affecting the accuracy of the IRR calculation.
3. Ignorance of Scale: IRR does not consider the scale of investment. Two projects with
different cash flows and initial investments may have the same IRR, but vastly
different profitability in absolute terms.
4. No Clear Decision Criteria: While a higher IRR generally indicates a more desirable
investment, it doesn't provide a clear threshold for decision-making. It does not
consider the size or risk of the investment, so it should be used in conjunction with
other metrics.
5. Sensitive to Timing: IRR heavily depends on the timing of cash flows. A delay in
receiving cash flows can significantly impact the calculated IRR and may not
accurately reflect the project's true profitability.