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■ INTRODUCTION
The capture of CO2 from flue gases is viewed as one potential
paper, refining, silicon carbide manufacturing, soda ash
production, titanium oxide, and zinc smelting (Figure 1).
Industrial processes often yield exhaust streams containing
instrument to reduce global CO2 emissions. In terms of
higher CO2 content than the flue exhausts from fossil-fuel fired
research, development and deployment, most of the existing
electricity production (e.g., coal and natural gas). It is generally
work on carbon capture has focused on fossil-fuel based power
accepted that there is an inverse relationship between cost of
generation (coal and natural gas). Yet abatement from CO2 separation and initial dilution of a mixed feed stream.4,5 As
industrial emissions has been largely overlooked, ignoring a a consequence, carbon capture from industrial processes may
substantial source of carbon dioxide. In 2013, the global offer more economical abatement than what is projected in
industrial sector emitted approximately 5.5 gigatonnes of similar applications within the power sector.
carbon dioxide (GtCO2), or 23% of total global CO2 emissions1 To assess the economic potential of carbon capture applied
(see Supporting Information (SI) Figure S1 for U.S. break- to EIPs, this study provides a cost analysis that aggregates the
down).2 These emissions are the byproduct of the production three major components of the carbon capture supply chain:
of commodities such as glass, cement, ammonia, and steel separation, compression, and transport. We estimate the full
materials that form the essential fabric of the modern economy economic cost, referred to as the levelized cost of CO2
(2). To date, these commodities have few viable substitutes. separation (in dollars per tonne of CO2 captured). We then
Further, unlike the electricity sector, where mitigation can be employ a geo-referencing approach, which links industrial
achieved through a shift to cleaner, low-carbon energy sources sources to current and potential future CO2 sinks (utilization
such as wind or solar, there are no economic pathways that lead opportunities), to identify least cost pathways for abatement,
to zero CO2 emissions for most industrial commodity given a local mix of supply and demand.6 The aim is to classify
manufacturing. While overall production from such Essential these EIPs based on economic viability for carbon capture,
Industrial Processes (EIPs) has declined in the U.S., it is which is ultimately a combination of industry- and site-specific
projected to increase globally 45−60% by 2050 to meet the factors. Overall, our study identifies opportunities for CO2
demands of a rising global population and economic activity.3
We identify the following processes (products) as EIPs: Received: April 5, 2017
aluminum, ammonia synthesis, mixed carbonate use, cement, Revised: August 17, 2017
biofuels (e.g., ethanol), ferroalloys, glass, iron and steel, lead, Accepted: August 31, 2017
lime, magnesium, petrochemicals, phosphoric acid, pulp and Published: August 31, 2017
Figure 1. National distribution of essential industrial processes. Graduated symbols denote potential CO2 capture volume (at 90% capture rate).
emission reductions from industrial sources. The availability of an overall economy perspective.7 Because prices from current
low cost capture opportunities in a particular region may lead CO2 sources such as natural reservoirs and select industrial
to an expanded CO2 commodity market, potentially displacing facilities are low ($7/tCO2 to $25/tCO2),8 public policy in the
carbon dioxide production from natural reservoirs and/or form of carbon regulations and/or pricing may ultimately have
specialty chemical manufacturing facilities. This replacement to play a supportive role in enabling the kind of market we
would have the effect of reducing overall CO2 emissions from examine in this study.
B DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.7b01723
Environ. Sci. Technol. XXXX, XXX, XXX−XXX
Environmental Science & Technology Article
Table 2. Minimum Work and Sherwood-Derived Separation/Capture Cost Estimations for Various Industries
CO2 content min. work (kJ/mol CO2 estimated cost (US$/tCO2 literature estimates (2016 US$/tCO2
source (mol %)a ref Captured)b captured) captured) ref
aluminum 4−10 6, 19, 20 8.2−10.8 45.8−65.6 68.2c,d − 76.3c,e 21
ammonia 30−99.9+ 22 0.0−5.0 0.0f − 29.0 21.2c,g 23
carbonates 20 24 6.2 36.0
cement 14−33 25, 26 4.7−7.3 28.1−39.2 57.3c,g, 68.4c,g, 54.8h − 95.3i, 23, 27,
28
ethanol 99.9+ 29 0.0 0.0f 12.7j 30
(biofuels)
ferroalloys 8−10 31−33 8.3−8.9 46.3−50.6
glass 7−12 31, 34 7.7−9.3 44.4−54.9
iron and steel 20−27 25, 35 5.5−6.2 31.4−34.2 21.7k − 24.4k, 32.6l − 44.0l, 57.3c,g 23, 36,
37
lead 15 38 7.1 40.5
lime 20 31 6.2 34.4
magnesium 15 31, 39 7.1 40.7
petrochemicals 30−99.9+ 35, 40 0.0−5.0 0.0f − 28.6
pulp and paper 8 41 8.9 48.0 31.1m − 35.0m 61.7n 42, 43
refining 3−20 44, 45 6.2−11.7 33.5−70.4 44.8o, 57.0p, 92.8q 45−47
silicon carbide 8 48 8.9 51.4
soda ash 36−40 49 4.0−4.4 25.6−26.7
TiO2 13 50 7.5 41.2
zinc 15 38 7.1 40.2
natural gas 3−5 10, 40 10.3−11.7 57.2−69.9 76.3r 51
petroleum 3−8 10, 25 8.9−11.7 47.0−69.0
coal 10−15 40, 52, 7.1−8.3 36.5−42.7 37.1−54.6s 54
53
a
Range in composition due to different processes or different capture points within the same process. When not directly reported, values were
estimated from a complete mass balance assuming NG fuel and 15% excess air. bCalculated assuming 99.5% purity and 90% capture, ref 10. cIncludes
cost of compression. dCalculated at 10% CO2 purity. eCalculated at 4% CO2 purity. fFor near pure streams, separation costs are considered in the
compression and dehydration stage. gIncludes costs for transport and storage. hOxycombustion. iPostcombustion MEA. jIncludes compression and
dehydration. kSelexol capture from the blast furnace. lPostcombustion capture from blast furnace; mCapture using precombustion shift technology.
n
Amine capture from boiler. oPCC from gasifier exhaust. pSMR with CCS, cost avoided. qPCC on combined stack (9% CO2), cost avoided. rMEA
PCC, 90% efficiency, cost avoided. sPCC from supercritical pulverized coal, includes compression.
modeling.4,12−14 We expand upon this principle to build a cost costs (including fuel and electricity) and operational conditions.
model based on current capture costs and conditions. Given Analysis of model sensitivity to several factors has been
cost estimates for CO2 capture technologies from power conducted and is presented in the SI. Moreover, Sherwood
generation, we use the Integrated Environmental Control estimates align with processes with relatively low energy penalty
Module (IECM)15 to calibrate the model. Specifically, the and should be considered a lower bound in instances that
IECM provides estimates for the facility and operating costs deviate from this system design.16 As an example, compare
(including fuel costs) of electricity generation and carbon oxyfiring with calcium loopingshown to integrate well in
dioxide capture equipment for natural gas combined cycle cement facilitiesagainst PCC MEA capture.17,18
(NGCC), subcritical pulverized coal (PC) and integrated Levelized Cost of CO2 Compression. The IECM also
gasification combined cycle (IGCC) systems of various provides estimates for the equipment and operating costs
capacities (net power outputs), capture efficiencies and flow required to compress separated CO2. It is understood that the
rates. Based on the methodology described and data provided CO2 product is H2O saturated and compression costs include
in the SI, these model output costs are used to determine the dehydration. To calculate the LCC as a function of capture
levelized cost of separation, LCS, for each combination of efficiency and flow rate (similar to the calculation of LCS), the
generation technology, peak capacity, capture efficiency, and procedure for NGCC, PC and IGCC outlined above is
flow rate. In this study, 24 estimates of LCS (and LCC, repeated, however this time with compression equipment
discussed in the next section) were generated, based on the present. The capacity and operational costs calculated for
three generation technologies (NGCC, PC, IGCC), two separation are subtracted from the corresponding values that
capacities each (large and small) and four capture rate (90%, include both separation and compression costs. Using the total
80%, 70%, 60%). These estimates became the basis for a cost mass of CO2 separated for each calibrating case, we determine
equation using a multivariate regression, with LCS as the the LCC. Finally, in the same approach using a multivariate
independent variable and capture rate (%), flue CO 2 regression the resulting relationship to each EIP, the levelized
concentration (%) and flow rate (tonnes/day) as the cost of compression is determined. Results show a range
dependent variables (see also SI). The resulting linear between approximately $4 per tCO2 and $10 per tCO2.
estimation yields Levelized Cost of CO2 Transportation. Generally, there
LCs = 80.94 − 0.25caprate − 80.63conc − 0.0006flowrate are two methods of transport: pipeline and tanker delivery
(trucking). Transport via rail could be viable if the source and
(2)
sink were located proximal to railheads, though economics
This relationship is applied to each EIP to estimate LCS, rarely prove favorable over short distances (<700 miles.). The
assuming a 90% capture rate. These results, together with majority of CO2 transport studies have focused on pipeline
typical EIP conditions, are summarized in Table 2 and span a transport, primarily based on the assumptions of large
range of $0 per tCO2 (for pure stream capture) to $70 per quantities of CO2 produced (e.g., electricity generation) and
tCO2. While the cost of separation shows a clear inverse utilized (e.g., EOR).55−57 For example, a PC power plant can
relationship with concentration, flow rate plays a smaller role as produce 3.5−4 MtCO2 per year. Under these conditions,
industrial flow rates are comparable in scale and cost of pipeline delivery exhibits a lower unit cost attributed primarily
separation is less sensitive to variations in flow rate as CO2 to economies of scale. However, these studies do not account
concentration increases (Figure 2). Note that literature costs of for smaller-scale operations where pipeline transport may be
capture may deviate from calculated estimates based on cost prohibitive. Situations exist where the volume of CO2 is
differing assumptions regarding cost of capacity, operational simply too low to avoid high cost pressurization of the stream.
For pipeline transport, CO2 must be compressed to a liquid
dense phase, typically at pressures ranging from 9−15 MPa and
temperatures between 10−35 °C.10 For tanker delivery,
liquefied CO2 is stored in cryogenic vessels and transported
by tank trucks with a capacity range of 2−30 tonnes. Here, CO2
is compressed to 1.7 MPa and −30 °C. Generally, the
theoretical power required to compress CO2 to a suitable level
for transport can be calculated (SI Table S10). For these low-
volume CO2 applications (<0.1 MtCO2 per year), which are
typical for EIPs, trucking is more cost-effective for any distance,
compared to an appropriately sized piping infrastructure (SI
Figure S4). As such, we focus solely on truck transportation for
our case study provided in SI Section 5. The standard cost
model of Berwick and Farooq58 is used as the basis for trucking
transport levelized cost estimates, LCT (refer to SI). There are
two key variables that affect the cost of transportation; distance
and tanker utilization. While LCT increases with greater
distances, it is inversely related to the proportion of the tanker
used per delivery.
Figure 2. Prediction of capture costs from power (black circles) of
varying gas flow rates (low to high). This data is used to predict Importantly, our calculation of LCT is based on a static
levelized costs of capture for several irreplaceable industries (colored market, whereby total supply from a given source is fully
circles and diamonds). Not shown are cost points for streams of 99.9+ accommodated by available sinks within a 100 mile radius. This
% CO2 purity, for which the cost of capture is assumed to approach formulation represents a best-case setting, whereby partial
zero. supply to a set of sinks is not considered. A case where some
D DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.7b01723
Environ. Sci. Technol. XXXX, XXX, XXX−XXX
Environmental Science & Technology Article
Figure 3. National distribution of CO2 utilization opportunities. Graduated symbols denote CO2 demand. Enhanced oil recovery dominates demand
but is geographically isolated from industrial emitters in the Northeast and West coast, where smaller scale opportunities may play a more prominent
role.
portion of the captured carbon dioxide is not delivered would To supply current utilization operations, CO2 is largely
have the effect of increasing the levelized cost of truck sourced naturally or created intentionally. A direct impact on
transportation, given the utilization of a truck (or fleet of emissions abatement could be realized if these natural or
trucks) would decrease. In this simple model, while variable intentionally generated sources were replaced with EIP-sourced
costs would decrease, the unit cost of capacity and fixed costs CO2. For example, the CO2 used for EOR is mainly supplied
would increase. via natural reservoirs delivered by an extensive CO2 pipeline
Table 3. Statistics and Cost Estimation (Capture, Compression, And Transport) For Pennsylvania-Based Essential Industrial
Sources (Top 10 and Bottom 10 LCO2)
levelized cost (US$/tCO2)
plant output regional demand (ktCO2/ average distance (source to maximum deliverable capture/
industry (ktCO2/a)a a)b (count)c sink) (mi.) (ktCO2/a)d compression transport total
iron and 3033.9 43.3 (76) 40.4 43.3 31.53−35.67 5.43 36.96−41.10
steel
iron and 33.7 44.6 (76) 39.6 33.7 32.58−36.85 4.72 37.30−41.57
steel
iron and 342.6 44.9 (78) 41.9 44.9 32.03−36.24 5.51 37.54−41.75
steel
iron and 137.0 44.9 (77) 49.3 44.9 32.25−36.48 5.94 38.19−42.42
steel
iron and 194.5 43.4 (75) 47.3 43.4 32.17−36.39 6.05 38.22−42.44
steel
iron and 48.5 50.4 (82) 43.3 48.5 32.49−36.76 5.77 38.26−42.53
steel
iron and 196.9 207.4 (268) 59.1 196.9 32.16−36.38 6.49 38.65−42.87
steel
iron and 59.5 41.4 (73) 54.0 41.4 32.44−36.70 6.26 38.70−42.96
steel
cement 120.8 41.1 (73) 53.2 41.1 32.28−36.51 6.48 38.76−42.99
iron and 154.0 178.3 (238) 63.8 154.0 32.22−36.45 6.82 39.04−43.27
steel
mechanism such as a tax credit, carbon tax or other incentive average EIP facility emissions are approximately 800 ktCO2 per
would be required to achieve cost-competitiveness of such year, while the average demand from all sinks is far smaller (ca.
captured CO2, given the wedge between calculated costs in this 15 ktCO2 per year). To establish source/sink relationships, we
study and incumbent offer prices (recall $7/tCO2 − $25/ define a service area encompassing all sink opportunities within
tCO2). Second-order opportunities (refrigeration, polymers, a 100 mile driving radius. Pennsylvania has 47 facilities that
methanol, gum, and wood chemicals and gas manufacturing) meet the aforementioned criteria for the manufacturing of
can potentially accept CO2, but additional considerations serve irreplaceable commodities, including cement (7), glass (7), iron
to complicate deployment and may require substantial and steel (19), lead (1), lime (4), pulp and paper (3), refining
investment in the receiving facility. For example, CO2 is (4), and zinc (2). Carbon dioxide produced in these industrial
known to produce methanol via hydrogenation; however, the processes has the potential to be offset by 772 sink
CO2 route to methanol requires one additional mole of H2 per opportunities identified as traversable within the 100 mile
mole of methanol produced when compared to the carbon cutoff radius and include decaffeination (extraction) (42),
monoxide route. In this case, a reliable low-carbon source of H2 fireproofing materials (5), industrial gas manufacturing (41),
is necessary to ensure that CO2 substitution in methanol gum and wood chemicals (4), polymer manufacturing (35),
production is carbon negative. CO2 in refrigeration applications commercial/industrial refrigeration (461), soda bicarbonate
is another example whereby equipment retrofitting may be manufacturing (1), and soft-drink manufacturing (183).
required. Transport costs are then calculated for the cumulative driving
Case-Study: Ranking Essential Industrial Processes in routes required for full transport of the deliverable CO2. These
Pennsylvania. We apply our cost methodology through an individual CO2 transportation routes serve as the input to the
assessment of the LCO2 associated with source/sink scenarios transport model, and taken together with the capture and
in the state of Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania has a range of EIPs compression cost models, define a physically viable cost
and sink opportunities, and a geographical mix of urban and scenario for each EIP (see the SI for a full description of the
rural areas that make it well suited for a general example. The methodology). Locations for all 47 Pennsylvania EIPs, as well
F DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.7b01723
Environ. Sci. Technol. XXXX, XXX, XXX−XXX
Environmental Science & Technology Article
as the 772 utilization opportunities within the 100 mile radius hence, for a given source, the best-case scenario occurs when all
are presented in SI Figure S6. Levelized separation, captured CO2 can be sunk, subject to a minimization of
compression, and transport costs are calculated for delivering transport costs. We note that in a given region, the CO2 supply
captured industrial CO2 to surrounding utilization opportu- with the lowest LCO2 would be fully absorbed by the sink(s),
nities, and the 20 lowest LCO2 are reported in Table 3 (column and in the event there is excess sink capacity available, the next
8). A large-scale iron and steel plant represents the lowest lowest LCO2subject to transportation constraints and
LCO2 of $38 to $42/tCO2. The LCO2 is based on a given quantity of CO2 producedwould be made available. To
source (in this case an iron and steel plant) being able to fully more fully account for supply and demand within a region, and
transfer its supply to the available sink(s) within the defined to understand what opportunities would arise should adjacent
region. regions become available, a dynamic model is required. We
Figure 4 presents a plot of all cost estimates and the note that in the case where all captured CO2 from EIP is unable
associated mass of carbon dioxide captured and transported. to be fully disposed of within a sink, it becomes “isolated” and,
This result compares to $55−$90/tCO2 for PC and NGCC assuming no alternative disposal, may be released (curtailed).
power generation with carbon capture technologies; see Figure This is presumably the case for the majority of examples
2 and ref 68. These costs represent first-of-a-kind technologies, provided in Table 3; the output from the EIP far exceeds the
and thus are presumed to be substantially lower than more sink capacities. Conversely, only 5 of the 20 examples show all
mature versions.7 It could be anticipated that costs would EIP emissions being fully accommodated by sinks. If it is
reduce as a function of learning and capability building (See anticipated thaton average, over the lifetime of the capture
Comello and Reichelstein (2014) model such a dynamic in the unita portion of the captured carbon dioxide will not be
case of CO2 capture at NGCC facilities). As a calibration, the transferred to a sink, the decision ceteris paribus could be to
levelized cost of capture (separation, compression and either (i) idle the capture process or (ii) build a smaller unit at
transportation) of high purity EIPs such as ethanol production the outset. The result of either would have the implication of a
or from tapping natural reservoirs is ∼$15/tCO2.68 higher LCO2.
As indicated in Table 3, the total LCO2 is minimized for high This case study shows that a set of source/sink pairings can
CO2 purity separation. The least cost options in this region are be identified that jointly minimizes the LCO2 and EIP
dominated by iron and steel manufacturing, anchored by higher emissions. While it may be necessary to increase the geographic
CO2 purity (20−27%) and assisted by low transport costs−a area to achieve such a joint optimization, policy support
function of the average distance required for CO2 delivery mechanisms would be able to offset any rise in LCO2. Such
(Table 3 column 4) and the theoretical maximum amount of incentives ought to be designed to make the capture of CO2
CO2 delivered per year (Table 3 column 5). The latter quantity from EIPs cost competitive with current utilization oppor-
is limited by either the amount of CO2 captured or the tunities from natural reservoirs.
cumulative sink demand. However, for this study, the range in Implications of a Merit-Order Ranking for Essential
transport cost (LCT) is small ($5 − $12/tCO2), while the range Industrial Processes. Despite the apparent urgency of climate
in cost for capture and compression is significant ($32 − $57/ change mitigation, carbon capture and utilization remains slow
tCO2); thus, one would expect a merit-order ranking to follow to uptake. Several barriers remain to commercialization and
closely to those industries with capture points that yield high rapid deployment of carbon capture and utilization (CCU).
CO2 purity, with further sorting due to small discrepancies in These barriers are both economic and technical in nature. A
LCT. At first glance, this would appear to suggest that coherent understanding of the costs of capturing CO2 from the
geographical considerations have minimal influence on LCO2. exhaust streams of industrial sources and delivering purified
However, this observation would necessarily change if the CO2 to industrial utilization sinks is vital to the acceleration of
source were to establish a contract price for delivered CO2; CCU uptake. This study estimates the levelized product cost of
G DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.7b01723
Environ. Sci. Technol. XXXX, XXX, XXX−XXX
Environmental Science & Technology Article
■
small quantities of CO2 to be transported over short distances,
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I DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.7b01723
Environ. Sci. Technol. XXXX, XXX, XXX−XXX
Environmental Science & Technology Article
J DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.7b01723
Environ. Sci. Technol. XXXX, XXX, XXX−XXX