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    Ba Lecture

    Uploaded by

    divya shinde
    The document contains time series data and forecasts for 12 weeks. It compares actual time series values to simple forecasts like the historical average and moving average. It also calculates error metrics like mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error to evaluate forecast accuracy.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Ba Lecture

    Uploaded by

    divya shinde
    7 views11 pages
    The document contains time series data and forecasts for 12 weeks. It compares actual time series values to simple forecasts like the historical average and moving average. It also calculates error metrics like mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error to evaluate forecast accuracy.

    Original Title

    BA LECTURE

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    © © All Rights Reserved

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    The document contains time series data and forecasts for 12 weeks. It compares actual time series values to simple forecasts like the historical average and moving average. It also calculates error metrics like mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error to evaluate forecast accuracy.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    7 views11 pages

    Ba Lecture

    Uploaded by

    divya shinde
    The document contains time series data and forecasts for 12 weeks. It compares actual time series values to simple forecasts like the historical average and moving average. It also calculates error metrics like mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error to evaluate forecast accuracy.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    of 11

    Week Time seriHistoricaForecast AbsoluteError^2 % Error

    1 17
    2 21 17 4 4 16 19.05%
    3 19 21 -2 2 4 -10.53%
    4 23 19 4 4 16 17.39%
    5 18 23 -5 5 25 -27.78%
    6 16 18 -2 2 4 -12.50%
    7 20 16 4 4 16 20.00%
    8 18 20 -2 2 4 -11.11%
    9 22 18 4 4 16 18.18%
    10 20 22 -2 2 4 -10.00%
    11 15 20 -5 5 25 -33.33%
    12 22 15 7 7 49 31.82%
    -
    Total 5 41 179 -
    3.72727273 16.2727273
    Mean of AbsoMean of Sqaured Error(MS
    Absolute % Error
    19.05%
    10.53%
    17.39%
    27.78%
    12.50%
    20.00%
    11.11%
    18.18%
    10.00%
    33.33%
    31.82%

    211.69%
    19%
    Mean of Absolute % Error (MAPE)
    Week Time seriAverage ofForecast AbsoluteError^2 % Error
    1 17
    2 21 17.00
    3 19 19.00
    4 23 26.67
    5 18 18.00
    6 16 8.20
    7 20 12.83
    8 18 19.00
    9 22 4.75
    10 20 8.89
    11 15 20.00
    12 22 3.18
    Absolute % Error
    Week Time seriMoving Forecaste Forecast Error Absolute
    1 17
    2 21 #N/A
    3 19 #N/A
    4 23 19 4 4
    5 18 21 -3 3
    6 16 20 -4 4
    7 20 19 1 1
    8 18 18 0 0
    9 22 18 4 4
    10 20 20 0 0
    11 15 20 -5 5
    12 22 19 3 3
    19 -19 19
    Error^2 % Error Absolute % Error

    16 17% 17%
    9 -17% 17%
    16 -25% 25%
    1 5% 5%
    0 0% 0%
    16 18% 18%
    0 0% 0%
    25 -33% 33%
    9 14% 14%
    361 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
    9 month
    0.2
    Yt
    Week Time series Forecaste ExForecast Err Absolute ErrError^2 % Error
    1 17 #N/A
    2 21 17
    3 19 17.8
    4 23 18.04
    5 18 19.032
    6 16 18.8256
    7 20 18.26048
    8 18 18.608384
    9 22 18.4867072
    10 20 19.1893658
    11 15 19.3514926
    12 22 18.4811941
    Absolute % Error

    11 months
    Year Bicycle
    t Y t-t1 y-y1 (t-t1)*(y-y1) (t-t1)^2
    1 21.6
    2 22.9
    3 25.5
    4 21.9
    5 23.9
    6 27.5
    7 31.5
    8 29.7
    9 28.6
    10 31.4
    55 264.5

    t1 5.5
    y1 26.45
    Year Bicycle Sales Forecast Error Error^2

    Slope
    Intercept
    R^2
    Forecast11

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