Batch Means Method

Replications Average Cycle Time Test Statistics

1 667.52877 m 20
2 660.39355 X bar 664.3739185
3 680.07311 Standard dev 21.8545443702454
4 683.17712 99% confidence interval
5 624.98307 t_19, 0.995 2.86093460646498
6 639.4727 LB 650.39303264892
7 674.51885 UB 678.35480435108
8 649.19843 half width 13.98088585108
9 642.60518 With 99% confidence, the
10 665.7985 Conclusion average cycle time is [650.39,
11 684.8709 678.35]

12 676.41662
13 654.49977
14 625.63542
15 705.40615
16 644.92523
17 678.45878
18 662.76068
19 696.01997
20 670.73557
Two Staged Method(How many replications are required to reach the half width)

m0 20 n right hand side

Y bar 664.3739185 3 1065.873517387
S_m0 21.85454437025 4 369.1639546326
99% confidence interval 5 229.3754277931
t_19, 0.995 2.860934606465 6 175.9260743394
epsilon (1%) 6.643739185 7 148.7317950879
8 132.5153577838
Conclusion: 9 121.8270377507
We will have to make 76 more replications to get 10 114.2828681852
a confidence interval half-width of 6.6 minutes 11 108.6869934476
12 104.3775639855
13 100.9601251138
14 98.18560944596
15 95.88929965272
16 93.95805267806
17 92.3116551995
18 90.89169748822
19 89.65466011426
20 88.56746728898
21 87.6045399642
22 86.74579117683
23 85.97523061907
24 85.2799732389
25 84.6495219104
26 84.07523981782
27 83.54995657862
28 83.06767021641
29 82.62331886946
30 82.21260393724
31 81.83185164953
32 81.47790367133
33 81.14802988598
34 80.83985828811
35 80.55131819832
36 80.2805939398
37 80.02608679736
38 79.78638358266
39 79.56023050598
40 79.34651133885
41 79.14422906816
42 78.95249040755
43 78.77049266073
44 78.59751253041
45 78.43289654517
46 78.27605283773
47 78.12644405757
48 77.98358123937
49 77.84701848021
50 77.71634830403
51 77.5911976119
52 77.47122413351
53 77.35611330927
54 77.24557554292
55 77.13934377463
56 77.03717133167
57 76.93883002032
58 76.84410842803
59 76.75281040941
60 76.66475373306
61 76.57976886984
62 76.49769790545
63 76.41839356295
64 76.34171832219
65 76.26754362529
66 76.19574915858
67 76.12622220231
68 76.05885704107
69 75.99355442824
70 75.93022109875
71 75.86876932536
72 75.8091165137
73 75.75118483243
74 75.69490087486
75 75.64019534902
76 75.58700279342
77 75.53526131603
78 75.48491235434
79 75.43590045448
80 75.38817306771
81 75.34168036268
82 75.29637505204
83 75.25221223224
84 75.20914923514
85 75.1671454907
86 75.1261623996
87 75.08616321503
88 75.04711293289
89 75.00897818974
90 74.97172716777
91 74.93532950638
92 74.89975621967
93 74.86497961956
94 74.83097324393
95 74.79771178958
96 74.76517104941
Using a different seed (10), we run for 96 replications and perform batch means again
Replications
1 634.20663 m 96
2 628.19368 X bar 663.7439291667
3 672.92599 Standard dev 21.04402895191
4 693.43388 99% confidence interval
5 626.93774 t_19, 0.995 2.628575670783
6 668.90268 LB 658.098281672
7 669.79919 UB 669.3895766613
8 675.83393 half width 5.645647494668
9 668.07285 With 99% confidence, the average cycle time is [658.1
10 675.1119
11 697.36503
12 622.84385
13 659.47745
14 665.33037
15 678.80123
16 663.39316
17 674.41754
18 652.64416
19 642.61014
20 642.57059
21 672.13048
22 700.69507
23 627.5182
24 674.77816
25 663.3194
26 671.16972
27 670.68916
28 680.25551
29 670.99618
30 655.79952
31 677.39927
32 668.10754
33 681.51269
34 674.7324
35 630.83356
36 695.81435
37 637.83859
38 672.52222
39 678.60285
40 695.68337
41 665.73448
42 685.1641
43 689.94595
44 648.10121
45 653.67309
46 648.10661
47 701.61953
48 621.35735
49 663.90819
50 669.82949
51 664.36797
52 631.41501
53 640.03691
54 664.95332
55 672.19422
56 668.70242
57 665.57724
58 698.14235
59 652.69739
60 650.35023
61 678.99382
62 660.42984
63 649.99524
64 682.53333
65 688.77556
66 669.65364
67 674.25229
68 675.3695
69 653.20339
70 627.15904
71 700.72349
72 658.74468
73 646.6154
74 649.68989
75 656.48947
76 697.0993
77 633.4165
78 613.14377
79 659.61034
80 690.05311
81 636.06891
82 661.93211
83 657.37267
84 655.37536
85 670.45844
86 650.65481
87 690.63019
88 630.51382
89 651.67198
90 649.28256
91 679.52019
92 678.34047
93 676.06813
94 704.68719
95 636.36526
96 655.37622
e average cycle time is [658.10, 669.39]