1.

26 PROBABILITY AND QUEUEING T

EOR
Example 7:
exclusive events and P (A U B)
B) #0,0, prove
ne
IfA and B are mutually th
P(A)
P(A/A UB) p(A)+P(B)
Solution:
A and B are mutually exclusive.
.AnB =
and P(A UB) =P(A) +P(B)
PIAn(AUB)]
. P (A/A
UB)=P(AUB)
P[AA)U(AnB)] P(A)
P(AUB) PP(AUB)
P(A) [AnB
P(A)+P (B)
Example 8
with P (B) *1, prove that
IfAand B are two events
P(A/B ) = A J - P ( A n B [A.U. Apr'0
1-P(B)
Solution
P(A/E)= P(A) (1)
P(B)

AnB AnB

Now A = (AnB)U(AnB)

P(A) = P(AnB) +P (AnB)

[: AnBand AnB are disjoint)

P (AnB) = P(A)-P (A nB) ..(2)

Also P(B)+P(E) = 1

P(B) = 1-P(B) . (3)

Substituting (2) and (3) in (1), we get
P(A/B) = P[A)-P(AOB)
1-P(B)
UNIT 1 **********e*ee***********e**********************e******ee******** *******++ *******
 PROBABILITY AND RANDOM VARIABLES
Example 9: 1.27
iACB, then P (A/B)2 P(A).
Solution: A.U. June '03)
ACB AnB- A
P (A/B) -AOB) PA)
P (B)
P (B)
.P(A/B)2 P(A)
Example 10:

UPA)= 0.35, P (B)=0.73, P (A n B)

0.14, =
find P (AuB).
A.U. May '04, Nov '07]
Solution:
Using Demargon's laws
AUB = (AnB)
P(A UB) =
P(AnB)
P (A UB) =
1-P(AnB)
=1-0.14 0.86
Example 11:
IfP (A) =
0.5, P (B) 0.3 and P (A
=

OB)=0.15, find P (A/B).

[A.U. June 03]
Solution:

P(A/E) = AOB) P(A)-P (A nB)

P(B) 1-P(B)
0.5-0.15 0.5
1-0.3
Example 12 :

IfA and B are independent and P (A) =,P (B)=, find P(A nB)
[A.U. May 05
Solution
Since A and B are independent,
P(AnB) = P(A) P(B)

*°°°************ **** 0**eeee ************s***se******************° UNIT1

 P R O B A B I L I T YA N D Q U E

1.28 P(A
n
B).
find

Example 13: (B/A)

-0.8,

P ( A ) - 0 . 9 ,

P P ( A B )

PA)
P (B/A)
Solution
P ( A n B )

0.9
0.8

0.9
x
=
0.8
P ( A n B )

.: = 0.72

the
following
assionn

ments ot
Erample 14: events
in S,
can
[A.U. Nov '0m
two
are any
and B
If A = 0.6
probability possible.
P (B)
P(A) = 0.5; 0.25
=

P(AnB)=
0.2; PP (A/B)

Solution:
We know that
P(AnB
P (A/B) P(B)
0.2
0.25 0.6
not possible.
The given
probabilities are

Example 15: not permissible given

are
of probabilities
Why the following assignment
that A, B, C are mutually exclusive.
P(A) =
0.24; P (B) =0.4
24
[A.U. June "03]
P (AUC)
=

Solution
should
P(AUC) =
24 not possible since probability of any quantity
be 1.
Example 16:
IfP (A) 0.65, =
P (B) =
0.4 and P (An B) =
0.24, can A and B e
dependent events.
Solution:

P(AnB) P(A). P(B) =

0.24 0.65 x0.4

Aand B are dependent events.
UNIT 1.aesseeeeesses snettl
PROBABILITY
AND RANDOM VARIABLES 1.29
Example 17
ItA and B are independent events, prove that
() A and Bare independent.

(i) A andB are independent.

i) A andB are independent.
[A.U. May '07]
Solution:
Since A and B are independent, we have

P(AnB)= P(A) P (B) [Definition] .(1)

() B (An B)u (AnB)

Now AnBand A nB are disjoint.

P (B)= P(AnB)+P (AnB)

PCAnB) P(B)-P(AnB) =

P(B)-P(A)-P(B) [By (1)

=
P (B)[1-P (A)]
- P(B)[P (AD

P(A) P(B)
A and B are independent.

Now A =
(AnB)u (AnB)
P(A) = P (AnB)+P (AnB)

[AnB and AnB are disjoint]

P(A) =
P(A)-P(B)+P(AnB)
P(AnB) P(A)-P (A) P(B) =

= P(A)[1 -P(B)]

P(A) P)
.A and B are
independent.
*******eees***a*asesessa*ssusee*s******es*nnssssaas UNIT 1
********a**ss***ssonssesese****es****s********
1.30 PROBABILITY AND QUEUEING EING THE
i) We know that
AR A n B

P(AB)
. P(AB) =
= 1-P(AUB)

= 1-[P(A) + P (B)- P (AnB)]

=1 -P(A) - P (B) + P (AnB)

=
1-P(A)-P(B) + P (A) P(B)
[A and B
= 1-P (A) -P (B) [1 -P (A)]
independe
=
[1-P(A)] [1 -P(B)]
i.e., P(AnB)= P(A) P (BE)
A and B
are independent.
Example 18 :
The probability that machine A will be performing an usual
years time is while the
function it
probability that machine B will still be
operatim
usefully at the end of the same
period is . Find the
machines will be
performing an
probability that bot
usual function.
Solution: [A.U. June "03, May "0

P(machine A operating
usefully) -

P(machine B operating usefully) =

P (Both A
and Bwill operate usefully) =
P(A) x P(B)

UNIT 1.*e**e****. *a******* s***4eesessssesseeaesaseseresoseeaeaess*********

PROBABILITY AND RANDOM VARIABLES 1.31
Example 19
A bag contains 8 white and 10 black balls. Two balls are drawn in
succession. What is the probability that first is white and second is black.

[A.U. Apr 04]

Solution:

Total number of ball =

8+ 10
18

P (drawing one white ball from 8 balls) =

18
10
P (drawing one black ball from 10 balls) =

P(drawing first white and second black) =

Example 20
Two persons A and B appear în an interview for two vacancies for the

same post. The probability of A's selection is and that of B's selection is
What isthe probability that:

() Both of them will be selected

() None of them will be selected [A.U. June '07]
Solution:

P(A selected) =

P(B selected)
P(A will not be selected)=1-

[Total Probability = 1]

PB willot be selected) 1- -a
()P(Both A and B will be selected) = P(A) x P(B)

(i) P(none of them selected) =

******* e*******eeea**assoosse***nuo**ae*ase****Bae
******e*******s*****e*************eee** 1
1.32 PROBABILITY AND QUEUEING THE

Example 21
White complexion t
man wants to marry a girl having qualities: e

probability of getting such a girlis handsome dowry

-

the
ability o
probability
20
1 the probability 100 FindOu
here is
getting this is 50 manners and style
these thre,
ne
probability of his getting to such a girl when the possession of
[A.U. May "
attributes is independent.
Solution
P (simultaneous occurrence of all these qualities)
P(style)
P(complexion) x P (dowry) x

0.00001
20 50 x 100
Example 22: students A, B, C whose chances
A problem in mathematics is given to 3
respectively. What is the probability thatthe
ofsolving it are,
[A.U. May 04]
problem will be solved?
Solution
P(A will not solve the problem) = 1-i

P(Bwill notsolvethe problem) =

1 -

P(C will notsolvetheproblem) =

1 -

P(all the three will not solve the problem) = 5

P (all the three will solve the problem) = 1 - =

HUYGEN'S PROBLEM
Example 23:
A and B
alternately throw a
throws 7 and B wins if he throws pair
of dice. A wins if he throws 6
7
before B
before A throws 6. If A
begins, show that
his chance of
winning is 30
A.U. Apr '03]
Solution
Since 2 dice are
thrown,
Given that
n (S) =
366
7 is the success getting of 6 is the success for
a sum
for B. A and getting a sum or
UNIT 1
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 1.33
VARIABLES
PROBABILITYAND
RANDOM
2), (3, 3)
a sum 6
-{ (1,5), (5, I), (2, 4), (4,
Chances ofgetting
n (A) 5
P(A) = A )
P(A) n (S) 36

{(2,5)(5,2)(1,6),(6,1),(3, 4),
(4, 3)
7
of getting a n (B)
sum
Chances
= 6

P(B) = (B)
and fifth trial
the A will play in the first, third,
game,
Since A begins
etc.
P(A winningthe game)
B losses and A wins;
P(A wins; A losses,
=

A losses, B losses,
A losses, B losses,
A wins; and so on)

BAor A B A BA or...)
P(A or A

A BA)+...
=
P(A) +P(A B A)+P(A B

=
P(A) +P (A) P( B)P(A)
+(P(APP(B)PP(A)+.
2

-
31
+r+rt., r36 *
155
1-216
216
-

30
61 . UNIT1
ool NI- N|
PROBABILITY AND RANDOM VARIABLES 1.35
91
100
P(Part B will 5
be defective) T00
P (Part Bwill not be 5
defective)1-T00
00-
100
95
100
P (the assembled article will not be defective)
P(PartAwill X
P(Part B will
not be defective) not be defective)
91 95
100 100
0.86
Example 27
From a bag containing 4 white and 6 black balls two balls are drawn at
random.
If the balls are drawn one after the other without replacement, find the
probability that:
6) both balls are white
() both balls are black
Gii) the first ball is white and the second ball is black.
iv) one ball is white and the other is black. [A.U. Apr 04]
Solution
Total number of balls = 10
)
P (Ist ball is white) 105
P (2nd ball is white)

. P (both balls are white) = 1 x

ii) P (1st ball is black) =

P(2nd ballis bla.k)

P (both balls are black) =
o
*********0*********os0e**es***e*s**4********9**#********************
UNIT 1
1.36 PROBABILITY AND QUEUEL
P(Ist ball is white)
STH
(i) 10

P (2nd ball is black) 9

white and 2nd ball black)

=

P(Ist ball
(iv) (a) P(1st ball is white and 2nd ball is black)

(b)P (Ist ball is black and 2nd ball is white)

Hence both events (a) and (6) are mutually exclusive

P (one ball is white and the other is black)

Example28:
Find the probability in each of the above four cases, if the ball
drawn one after the other with replacement.
Solution:

P (1st ball is white) =

1

P (2nd ball is white) 10

P (both balls are white) -

6
P(1st ball is black) =

P(2nd ball is black) =

10
P (both balls are black) =

(ii) P(ist ball is white) 10

P (2nd ball is 6
black)= 10
. P(lst white and 2nd black) =
1
UNIT 1. ******eseoe
************ **es*****
******
PROBABILITY AND RANDOM VARIABLES 1.37
(iv) P(lst ball is white and 2nd ball is black)

4 6
10 10
24
100 25
Eample29
Four cards are drawn without replacement. What is the probability that
they are all Aces? [A.U. June '05)
Solution:
.. P (all four cards are Aces)

P(A) P (getting lst Ace) =

P(B) P (getting 2nd Ace)=

P (C) =
P(getting 3rd Ace)=50
P(D) =
P(getting 4th Ace) =

P(A) x P(B) x P(C)x P(D)

1
270725
Example 30:
If two dice are thrown, what is the probability that the sum is ) greater
than 8, (i) neither 7 nor 11. [A.U. May '07]
Solution:
Let S denotes the sum on the two dice. Then S> 8.
ie., S may be 9, 10, 11l or 12.
.P(S>8)= P(9)+P (10)+ P (11)+P (12) .(1)
[By addition theorem]
Sum S = 9 may happen in 4 ways

(3,6), (6, 3), (4, 5), (5, 4)

P (S=9)= 36 .(2)
Sum S= 10 may happen in three ways.
ie, (4,6). (6,4), (5, 5)
******ee**********************a**************************e*******e*** UNIT 1
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 PROBABILITY AND QUEUEING
1.38

P(S 10) 6 two ways.

in
Sum S
=

11 may happen
i.e., (5, 6).
(6, 5)

P(S 11) j6
in one way.
Sum S 12 may happen
ie., (6, 6)

PS =12)
=

in (1), we get
Substituting (2), (3), (4) and (5)

P(S>
7 may happen in 6 ways.
(by Sum S
=

ie, (6, ), (1, 6), (4, 3), (3, 4), (5, 2), (2,
5)
6
P(S 7) 36
Sum S 11 may happen in 2 ways.

ie, (6, 5), (5, 6)

PS=1) =
Let A and B denote the event of getting the sum 7 and I1 respectively
P (the sum is neither 7 nor 11)
P (neither the event A nor B
happened)
= P(ÃnBB)
[A is the complement of A]
= 1 - P(AUB)

1-
[P(A)+P (B)]
=

UNIT 1