Relationship Between Industrialization and Environmental Pollution in Tajikistan

Volume: 26, Issue: 1
Page: 130-154
International Journal of Science and Business
2023
Journal homepage: ijsab.com/ijsb
Relationship between Industrialization and

Environmental pollution in Tajikistan
UMARALIEVA, Takhmina & Guy Merlain DJAKOU
Abstract
Environmental pollution is a serious issue in the majority of countries due to
industrial activities. In this context, the present study aimed to investigate
the relationship between industrialization and environmental pollution in
Tajikistan. Explanatory variables employed included population growth,
urbanization, economic growth (GDP), GDP per capita, and energy
consumption. Environmental pollution was treated as the explained variable,
and the study applied the Theory of Environmentally Responsible Behavior,
IJSB
Reasoned/Responsible Action theory, and the Environmental Citizenship Accepted 06 August 2023
Model of Human Interaction with the Environment, forming the theoretical Published 11 August 2023
DOI: 10.58970/IJSB.2171
framework for this research. A correlational research methodology was
employed in this study. The results of the econometric tests revealed the
following: Industrial output (resulting from industrial activities), population
growth, urbanization, economic growth (GDP), and energy consumption have
a positive and significant impact on the emission of greenhouse gases
(environmental pollution) in Tajikistan. Conversely, GDP per capita has a
negative impact on the emission of greenhouse gases (environmental
pollution) in Tajikistan. Furthermore, there exists a bidirectional causality
between all variables and environmental pollution (greenhouse gas
emission), with the exception of GDP per capita. Based on the findings, the
analysis concluded that a long-term association exists between
industrialization, the alternative variables, and environmental pollution, ISSN: 2520-4750 (Online) 2521-3040 (Print)
except for GDP per capita. The study also presented several
recommendations on how to promote industrial symbiosis (IS).
Papers published by IJSAB International are
licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-
NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Keywords: Industrialization, Urbanization, Economic Growth, Environmental Pollution, Tajikistan.
About Author (s)

UMARALIEVA, Takhmina (Corresponding Author), Ph.D. Student, School of Economics, Capital
University of Economics and Business (CUEB), Beijing, China.
Guy Merlain DJAKOU, Ph.D., School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business (CUEB),
Beijing, China.
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IJSB Volume: 26, Issue: 1 Year: 2023 Page: 130-154
1. Introduction
1.1 Research Background
Environmental pollution issue is a serious one in the majority of countries because of industrial
activities. The uncontrolled industrial activities in many countries lead to consequences such
as air pollution, water pollution, acid rain, smog and oil spills. The issue of environmental
pollution is constantly becoming real today as many developing countries are industrializing.
Industrial growth has been impacting the world with severe problems since time immemorial.
The ecosystem and the elements of natural structures such as water, air, land and habitats,
especially the environment, are under immense pressure. To understand the gravity of the
issue, the environmental effects of industrialization should be analyzed more carefully and
sensibly (Patnaik, 2018). Li et al. (2018) opined that industrial effluents contain various critical
nutrients or have properties that can effectively be used with commensurate social and
environmental advantages for many value-added purposes. The implementation of green
approaches in the context of the integrated framework for industrial ecology (IE), using
technology focused on the 6Rs (reducing, reuse, recycling, regeneration, redesign, rethinking),
offers an outstanding chance to protect natural resources in the region, while improving the
regional economy sustainably. It calls for an effective strategic approach, which covers factors
that can influence industrialization regarding technology, climate, socio-culture and economy.
It is often important to benefit from other related scenarios before creating a realistic approach
to strategic growth (Bauer et al., 2019). A structured approach to situations with the same
implications can help to better explain how the instance took place and can objectively examine
circumstances, strategies, actions and general scenarios relevant to the problem. Against this
backdrop, this study investigates the relationship between industrialization and
environmental pollution in Tajikistan.
1.1.1 Industrialization
Oqubay (2018) defines industrialization as the method of transforming an economy
predominantly from an agricultural to a manufacturing-based one. Human manual labour is
also supplemented by the development of mechanized mass and the assembly lines replaced
by craftsmen. Industrialization features include rapid development, greater division of labour,
and the use of technology innovation to address challenges rather than reliance on factors
beyond human influence. In addition, the social and economic transition of society from rural
to manufacturing is referred to as industrialization. Between 1760 and 1840, the industrial
revolution was witnessed worldwide, where many countries developed many factories,
especially in Europe and North America. During this era, new computers were replaced by
conventional manual work and processes which could more easily execute tasks. While
modern tools and machines made work simpler and production higher, new challenges were
also brought on by industrialization. Some of the negatives included air, water and soil
pollution, which contributed to a major decrease in the quality of life and life expectancy
(Merriman, 2019). While industrialization has many benefits, its principal adverse
consequence is pollution which can have an adverse impact on the health of human beings. If
businesses do not pay for the environmental harm or are not priced for it, this is called a
negative externality. Deforestation, species extinction, widespread pollution, unsustainable
waste and other types of environmental degradation put the cost pressure on human society
(Pata, 2018).
1.1.2 Environmental Pollution

The environment is the overall surrounding and it is made of the biological as well as the
natural resources. According to World Bank (2020), the term environment refers to social and
natural conditions that surround the human race including future generations to come. The
environment covers elements and components including land, air as well as water. It also
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covers the layers that are found in the atmosphere, the organic as well as inorganic matter. In
general, the term environment is used to refer to natural habitats for human beings that are
made up of various components. The environment can be seen as the total surrounding found
within the context of human beings (Bauer et al., 2019). Environmental pollution is the
introduction of various substances and agents that are harmful to all life that depend on the
environment for survival. Environmental pollution is brought about the pollutants and it can
generally refer to pollution of air, water and land (Gumede & Savage, 2017). Pollution of the
environment is a serious challenge with far-reaching influence on human life and health as well
as the level of agricultural productivity. In fact, environmental pollution is regarded as a serious
challenge in the present world. Several activities of human beings include the application of
technology to change the ecosystems resulting in pollution of the environment (Nadal et al.,
2016). Environmental pollution has remained a challenge across the world. For instance, a total
of 342,000 contaminated sites were identified in Europe for the year 2018. According to the
Statistics by the World Health Organization (WHO), the year 2017 saw a total of 4.3 deaths in
households across the world largely attributed to air pollution while a total of 842,000
households died the same year due to water pollution around the globe (Triassi et al., 2019).
Pollution of the environment can be considered as the unwanted change in the biological,
physical and chemical composition of the soil, water and air and this is particularly harmful to
the life that relies on the environment for survival. There are several forms of pollution for
instance energy or chemical substance like light, heat or noise. The pollutants of the
environment can either be foreign energies/substances or contaminants that occur naturally
(Gworek et al., 2016).
1.1.3 Industrialization and Environmental Pollution in the Context of Tajikistan

Tajikistan is a Central Asian country with Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, China, and Uzbekistan
surrounding it. In the last few years, because of the ease with which the Government has made
land, water, cheap labour, electricity and various incentives and concessions available,
Tajikistan has attracted a large number of industries. This includes tax concessions, power
subsidies and tax holidays. Tajikistan had impressive industry establishments in 5,673 sectors
representing a cross-sector of various industries by mid-2019, as annual industrial growth
varied from 1.86-12.28% (Abdullaev, 2018). Today, Tajikistan's industrial development is
driven by seven well-established industrial estates. New industrial estates are also being
planned because of the industrial-friendly environment as several big industrial firms with a
national reputation and many prominent multinationals have shown considerable interest in
building their plants in Tajikistan in the near future. Along with economic growth, this
accelerated industrialization led to sudden population growth, urbanization and apparent
stress on basic life support structures, which took environmental impacts closer to tolerance
threshold limits. In Tajikistan, factories have been rated as Red, Orange and Green based on the
type and intensity of emissions, with respect to extreme, middle and low pollution capacity in
that order. Currently, 19% of the overall sectors are in the red band, 21% orange and 60%
green. By mid-2019, Tajikistan was expected to generate about 36,768 tons per year of
hazardous waste (Мирзоев, 2019). Although some industries sell their waste in another area
except for a single unsafe recycling unit and no protected waste site to ensure proper
management of industrial wastes, waste is inadequately disposed of and in a manner that is not
proper which burdens the environment in many waste disposal units. Uncontrolled,
insufficient and unsystematic waste disposal poses a significant risk to the health of the
region's ecosystem.
1.2 Research Objectives
The main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between industrialization and
environmental pollution in Tajikistan. The following specific objectives guided the study:
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1.2.1 Specific Objectives

1) To assess the effects of industrial output on environmental pollution in Tajikistan.
2) To determine the long-run and short-run relationship between industrialization and
environmental pollution in Tajikistan.
3) To understand the effects of explanatory variables (population growth, urbanization,
economic growth (GDP), GDP per capita, energy consumption) on environmental pollution in
Tajikistan.
4) To draw policy implications from the results of (i), (ii) and (iii) above.
1.3 Research Questions
1) What dangers does industrialization pose to our environment and natural resources in
Tajikistan?
2) Does a long-run and short-run relationship exist between industrialization and
environmental pollution in Tajikistan?
3) Do other explanatory variables (population growth, urbanization, economic growth (GDP),
GDP per capita, and energy consumption) cause environmental pollution in Tajikistan?
4) How industry, and the environment together can contribute towards achieving
environmental sustainability?
2. LIRERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Theoretical Underpinning
2.1.1 Behavioral change model
This reasoning is directly linked to the assumption that if people were better informed they
would become more aware of environmental issues and therefore be motivated to conduct
themselves in an environmentally sound manner. As can be seen in the following figure when
knowledge increases, environmental positions are developed that lead to responsible
environmental action.
Knowledge Awareness or Attitude Action
Figure 2. 1: Behavioral Change Model
Further research nevertheless denied the arguments of those who saw this model as changing
the principles of human behaviour. This has long failed to recognize or support the legitimacy
of such a simplified linear model. In the course of the following years, researchers focused on
the assumption that a number of variables interact at various levels to influence the inclusion
of environmental responsibility. Varela-Candamio et al. (2018) discuss that although very
simplistic, the behavioural model provides a basis for assessing the possible relationship
between environmental awareness and attitudes and how these can result in action or
inactivity. Well-known environmental variables may not necessarily mean good and
sustainable environmental performance. However, a lack of knowledge or awareness of the
environment cannot necessarily mean poor environmental practice. Other factors such as the
locus of control, the intention to act and the responsibility of the individual should therefore be
considered. While this model can decipher a possible line of connection, the reality is far more
complex than this linear trend, hence a more advanced model that includes this line of relation
offers a brief explanation of the interaction between the interacting variables in the
preservation of the natural environment.
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2.1.2 Theory of environmentally responsible behavior (ERB)

Hines, Hungerford and Tomera proposed and Lee and Oh (2018) further developed the theory
of ERB. The theory suggests that the desire to behave is a significant element that affects ERB.
The model of responsible environmental behaviour suggests that the following factors are
intended to function, place of control (a feeling of personal control over activities in one’s lives),
behaviours, the sense of personal responsibility and awareness. The model notes that the
internal control center has an important effect on the purpose of to act that significantly defines
the ERB of a person. This model further illustrates that the control center, people's attitudes
and their intention to behave exist. The authors have stated that the control center explicitly
influences the attitudes of the person and can contribute to positive intervention and changed
behaviour. The theory thus concentrates more on current relationships between parameters
which affect the behavior of an individual than on the singular impact of a particular variable.
The following figure summarizes the different relations between the concepts of ERB. The
internal control center has an influence on people's decision to behave according to this ERB
theory.
Figure 2. 2: Theory of Environmentally Responsible Behavior (ERB)
No single mechanism is responsible for existing behaviours of waste management systems or

is necessary to trigger behavioural changes or changes in behaviour. For example, despite laws
from waste control agencies, people pile up their waste materials in the middle of the street in
big cities to prevent this from occurring. Many such flutters are doing this at strange times
when law enforcement authorities are unavailable; some people are affected by the
indiscriminate disposal of such garbage, as they see others doing so (Su et al., 2020). From the
figure, Knowledge alone is not enough to take responsibility for the environment, whilst some
people’s knowledge and regulations of the environment could lead them to a good attitude that
could lead to positive actions, other people could have internal and external controls, such as
influenced by others' actions or a strong belief to act. A separate attitude system and control
core as well as an acting will are not necessary to establish a purpose to act unified by a general
definition, they are a foundation on which environmental predisposition is constructed. In the
management of waste, there exists no single factor that brings about a change in current
behaviour. For instance, despite the existence of stiff regulations forbidding people and
industries from dumping waste materials, some industries still damp waste and other particles
in large cities. As indicated in the Figure above, knowledge on its own is not adequate for
enhancing responsible actions and behaviour towards the environment.
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2.1.3 Reasoned/Responsible action theory

The Reasoned / Responsible action theory was proposed by Ajzen and Fishbein but has been
advanced by (Akintunde, 2017). The theory argues that various human behaviours are
influenced and shaped by rational thoughts. According to the theory, there exists a link
between intentions to act and the final behaviour of an individual as predicted by attitudes.
They are the subjective beliefs and norms that shape these attitudes. The theory of reasoned
action is used to account for the time when individuals are guided by good intentions, but
ensuring that these intentions are translated into good actions is affected by inadequate
confidence.
Figure 2. 3: Theory of Reasoned/Responsible Action
Reasoned action theory is important in so far that it provides a foundation for understanding
why people may not act for their environment, whether because of their lack of trust or because
they feel they have no control over behaviour. The theory of reasoned action is important. In
addition, as stated (Akintunde, 2017), people can form different beliefs about the consequences
of conduct on the basis of various experiences and various normative beliefs. These convictions
in turn determine attitudes and subjective norms that then determine intent and behavior. As
shown in the figure, a better understanding of a behaviour can be gained by tracing the
determinants of a behaviour back to the underlying beliefs, thereby changing the number of
such beliefs. The model explains further how good environmental intentions are not enough to
drive action in themselves. As can be observed in the image, attitudes and subjective norms
help to predict behavioural intentions. The social environment has been shown to mediate the
effects of environmental behaviour. Likewise, Chakrabarty (2020) offers the basis for
integrating demographic characteristics because they positively or negatively influence
individual environmental attitudes.
2.2 Empirical Literature

2.2.1 Cross-sectional Studies
Several cross-section studies have proved there exists a significant positive relationship
between industrialization and environmental pollution. Nasrollahi et al. (2020) suggest that
today's pollution from industries is integrally linked to financial manufacturing, contemporary
technology, lifestyles, sizes of populations of humans and animals, and a host of other variables.
Except for wide macro transitions with various social benefits, it is unlikely to yield. These
transitions include moving away from fossil fuels and waste-intensive techniques, bringing to
bear our most advanced science, changing prices and other financial incentives, perceiving
emissions as either transboundary or global, and moving towards a world population that is
very stable. According to Majolagbe et al. (2017), Land is frequently used as a waste treatment
recipient for effluents from industries. Land also gets spills of waste. The land pollution is the
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degradation of the earth's land surface by bad farming methods, mineral exploitation,
industrial waste dumping, and indiscriminate urban waste disposal. For a lot of municipal and
some industrial waste, recycling materials is practical to some extent, and a tiny but increasing
percentage of solid waste is being recycled. However, when waste is mixed, recovery becomes
hard and costly. New methods have been created to sort ferrous and nonferrous metals, paper,
glass, and plastics, and many communities with recycling programs now need separation of
waste. Developing better handling techniques, inventing new products for recycled materials
and finding new markets for them are crucial problems in recycling. Environmental pollution
is currently a major problem around the world on a large and unprecedented scale (Chowdhary
and al., 2018). Trends point in two ominous directions: towards big and increasing releases of
certain chemicals primarily from burning fossil fuels as a result of industrialization, which are
now considerably modifying natural systems on a worldwide scale and towards constant rises
in the use and release of countless biocide goods and poisonous substances into the
atmosphere. These raise a more severe issue presenting tremendous problems to the societies,
both developed and developing. Several large-scale social and technological transitions are
required to tackle the severe pollution problems for decades to come.
2.2.2 Country-specific Studies

In order to look for the presence of a relationship between industrial water pollution and
economic growth, Khan et al. (2019) took international panel data from 12 countries from 2007
to 2019. They calculate the effects of growth in income on three pollution determinants:
manufacturing share in overall output; the sectorial composition of production; and the
industrial pollution rate at the end of the pipe per unit of output. Regression
analysis demonstrated that the manufacturing output follows the curve trend of Kuznet while
the other two do not conform. When these three relationships are merged, however, the curve
of Kuznets is not noticed. Total industrial water pollution grows quickly and stays
approximately steady by middle-income status. Data from many countries have been extended
and LDCs have shown that OECD countries have been the top contributors to industrial water
pollution. Negative responses from economic development to pollution intensity are adequate
to keep world pollution over the twelve-year sample span at about 15 percent.
Aniyikaiye et al. (2019) did a comparison of industrial pollution loads in 14 industries in Lagos,
Nigeria, with conventionally analyzed effluent pollution loads computed using the Industrial
Pollution Projection System (IPPS). Statistically validated data have been conducted with t – a
test at the 95 per cent confidence interval (2-tailed) and the variance analysis (ANOVA) for
determining whether the IPPS pollution load is substantially different in terms of jobs and
overall output; and the traditional effluent analysis has pollution loads at p > 0.05. In all
industries except basic industrial gas production, where two means vary greatly, they found
that no substantial difference occurs between the pollution loads measured in respect of these
two variables. IPPS pollution loads at the traditional effluent study at this limit often were
positive compared with pollution loads. The consequence is that the IPPS techniques offer an
inexpensive way to estimate pollution in developed countries. In developing economies with
limited resources to protect the environment, industrial emissions management also would be
improved. The effectiveness of the intervention steps will decrease gross industrial pollution
significantly.
2.2.3 Industrial Growth and Environmental Pollution

Industrialization has contributed to the deterioration of the environment In terms of industrial
pollution. A 100% pollution-free world is a fallacy with manufacturing running. It is neither
necessary nor feasible. As a result of heavily polluting factories like thermal power stations,
coal mining, cement, iron sponge, steel & ferroalloys, gasoline, and chemicals, waste, haze,
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fumes, and greenhouse gas emissions exist. These clusters have not only been harmful to
manufacturing but often do irreparable harm to our environment and ecosystems, frequently
infringing the potential of the environment. Environmental pollution is a harmful by-product
of industrialization and can adversely affect human health. If businesses do not pay for the
environmental harm or are not priced for it, this is called a negative externality. Deforestation,
species extinction, widespread pollution, unsustainable waste and other types of
environmental degradation put cost pressure on human society (Nasrollahi et al., 2020).
In an analysis by Rahman and Kashem (2017), the environmental impacts of industrial

development are defined and quantified, with particular reference to developed countries, and
with policy recommendations, including the use of renewable technology and environmentally
sustainable manufacturing techniques. The researchers think that developed countries are
mostly shown to be particularly polluting in their industrial sector. This has led to severe
pressures on the environment in combination with a large agriculture sector which contributes
to deforestation, erosion of the topsoil and desertification, and the depletion of its natural
resource base has made the population poor. This crisis shows that strong industrialization
policies are highly necessary for the economic growth of developed countries and calls for
natural resource conservation and the use of low-waste or environmentally clean technology.
The more industrial capability a nation has built, the greater the economic growth and
development prospects. This would achieve sustained changes in living standards, jobs,
working conditions, schooling and welfare if applied sustainably, taking note of the sometimes-
fragile existence of the surrounding environment, social patterns and economic circumstances.
If technological growth on the other hand is accompanied by the destruction of the
environment and depletion of resources, social exploitation and economic imprudence, the
related gains will not remain (Zafar et al., 2020). There is also a need to ensure developing
countries have access to basic utilities and new, secure and sustainable electricity. Access to
electricity will also help achieve universal elementary education and foster gender equality
through the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
2.2.4 Population Growth and Environmental Pollution

A high population growth rate, in addition to low per-capita income, has weakened
environmental conditions, although population growth has proved to be a significant source of
growth. The effect of population growth on the environment is mainly attributed to the use of
natural resources and waste production, environmental pressures such as depletion of
habitats, air and water contamination and increased pressure on arable land (Liang & Yang,
2019). In addition to rising stresses on marginal lands, soil erosion, overgrazing, timber burns,
soil erosion, silting or floods, the rapidly growing population increases the use of pesticides,
fertilizers, and damage of the soil and water contamination. The three fundamental
demographic factors birth (natality), death (mortality), and migration and immigration
(population flows into countries contribute to higher population) lead to changes in population
size, density, distribution, etc. (Adu & Denkyirah, 2018).
Poverty is a major consequence of population growth, and it plays a major role in

environmental destruction, and this uneven allocation of wealth and scarce possibilities
contribute to pushing and pulls for people living below the poverty line (Polasky et al., 2019).
Poorer people who can't fulfil their needs by buying are required to use common property
services such as forests for food farming and fuel, woodland pasture and get water from ponds
and rivers. This also helps to deteriorate the environment by exploiting natural resources, such
as land, air and water. The human burden caused by the overuse of surface and groundwater
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waters by the poor has contributed to the degradation and depletion of water supplies, the use
of rivers for raw wastewater and agricultural waste management and the acceleration of the
poverty phase begins (Baloch et al., 2020). Nasir et al. (2021) on environmental degradation
and the role of economic development, and industrialization in India opined that Population
growth is a factor determining the degree to which environmental and natural resources are
under threat. India is the world's second most populated nation with more than 1,271 billion
(17.5 percent) inhabitants. In India, population growth is very high annually and decade, with
little decline. Indian urbanization (population growth) has continued as it has been in other
parts of the world, with continuous populations and activities in large towns with backward
areas and small towns which seem to stagnate. This problem is catastrophic because if the
environment is not well managed, the structural systems are divided, the architecture
requirements are not rigorous and the measures are improperly adapted to various facilities
to implement environmental concerns (Panwar et al., 2018). The relationships between people
and the environment have also been seen as having a connection to sustainability, and the
relationship between them needs to be understood (Panwar et al., 2018).
2.2.5 Urbanization and Environmental Pollution

One of the most irreversible human effects on the global biosphere is the conversion of Earth's
surface to urban uses. It speeds up the depletion of highly productive agricultural fields, affects
energy use, and changes the environment, changing hydrology and biogeochemical cycles.
These effects can be observed on many occasions. For example, potential urbanization will pose
imminent challenges to ecosystems: in the next few decades, the biggest rates of land
conversion will most probably be in biodiversity hotspots largely unsettled by urban
development in 2000. In cities, the essence of urban expansion also determines the
susceptibility of urban residents to environmental stress (Liang et al., 2019).
According to Munir and Ameer (2018), urban expansion's environmental consequences spread
far from the urban centers themselves. Agriculture is stepping up the remaining undeveloped
land in increasingly urbanization areas and is likely to extend to new zones, thus stressing land
supplies. In comparison, urban areas shift cycles of precipitation to hundreds of kilometers in
length. Urban development will also impact the global climate. About 5 percent of the overall
tropical deforestation and land use pollution are projected to increase in direct reduction of
plant biomass from areas with a high likelihood of urban growth. These impacts are yet to be
studied in their depth and scope. While various studies have represented how urbanization
impacts CO2 emissions and heat budgets, the climate system is starting to understand the
impact of flowing water, aerosol and nitrogen. A big cause of this environment pollution
situation is the overwhelming scale of the city population, the haphazard and unforeseen rise
of urban settlements, and the desperate shortage of infrastructure. The exponential
development of both natural and migrating urban communities has exerted heavy demand on
public services, such as infrastructure, hygiene, transport, power, housing, sewage, water
transport, power, public health and education. Rural immigrants then suffer from hunger,
unemployment and under-employment, beggary, robbery, dacoity, burglary and other social
evils. Urban spread soon invades valuable farmlands (Effiong, 2018).
2.2.6 Economic Growth (GDP Growth) and Environmental Pollution

Some researchers evaluated the role of economic growth in the environment based on the
concept of mass preservation: the growth of production ultimately results in an increase in the
exploitation of natural resources in the economic system. But the natural world is constrained
by the absorption of waste generated by the industrial system that grows to excessive global
economic growth. In the end, continuous economic growth can harm a region, a nation and
even the global environment more or help boost the quality of the environment (Adu &
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Denkyirah, 2018). Pollution is also rising as the economy grows. Both are not in lock, though,
as the latest Economic Synopses (2020) indicate that pollution is growing slower than
economic growth. Aung et al. (2017) conclusion is different from the "Environmental Kuznets
Curve" (EKC). The EKC variation suggests that in the early stages of production, pollution rises
with economic growth. However, the trend reverses beyond a certain degree of development,
and economic growth improves environmental conditions by creating resources that are used
to ensure environmental sustainability. The researchers find that pollution increases
monotonically with economic growth. Economic activity is rising by 1 percent, which also
raises pollution but at a slower rate. In other words, pollution is slowing down GDP. Scholars
have carried out many studies and are primarily concerned with the environmental pollution
effects of economic growth. One of these is the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) proposal
and related scientific research. In order to explain the relationship between these
variables better. The researchers found the reverse U relationship between economic growth
and environmental pollution. The lower the stage of economic growth, the less
environmental pollution. Environmental degradation is on the rise as industrialization
increases. The heavily polluting industrial economy is becoming a service economy or
technology-driven economy with improvements to the country's economic structure and the
pollution level is decreasing in the higher stage of economic growth (Bildirici & Gökmenoğlu,
2017). First, most EKC literature believe that EKC exist and later will be confirmed with
numerous evidence and methods of analysis. Western researchers use national cross-
sectional data and panel data in particular to validate EKC by matching the cubic or quadratic
polynomial model (Ssali et al., 2019). Most studies in China use time series data directly to
match a quadratic or cubic polynomial model and then find authentication linking points (Lu
et al., 2017).
2.2.7 GDP Per Capita and Environmental Pollution

The GDP Per Capita is not necessarily theoretically linear in its relationship with environmental
quality. Although per capita income increases can increase environmental degradation by
increased resource use as a result of economic growth, higher levels of production can also
mitigate environmental damage. This counteracting impact on environmental effects is
accomplished through multiple channels. The relationship between GDP per capita growth and
environmental degradation in China was investigated by Hao et al. (2020). The study aimed to
examine the relationships between environmental pollution and economic growth in
Zhejiang's industrial development according to time series data on three forms of pollution
index from 1981 to 2018, using Johansen's co-integration tests and the Granger causality test.
The findings showed three kinds of pollution indexes, each with a negative long-term per capita
GDP co-integration relationship which does not result in environmental degradation as a result
of economic growth. The findings also reveal that, with exception to industrial solid residue
discharge, the per capita GDP granger caused emissions from industrial waste water and gasses
emission.
On the other hand, Cederborg and Snöbohm (2016) on their research question, is there a
relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions? In order to investigate
the potential impact of economic growth on environmental degradation, the study explored the
relationship between per capita GDP and per capita emissions of carbon dioxides (CO2). The
research was carried out on cross-sectional data in 69 industrial and 45 developing countries.
Several hypotheses were reviewed with differing views on potential environmental
destruction impacts of economic growth. Their research concluded, however, that there is a
correlation between economic growth and degradation of the environment. The empirical
result of the cross-sectional analysis in turn suggests a correlation between GDP per capita and
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carbon dioxide emissions per capita. The correlation is strong, indicating that rising GDP per
capita contributes to increasing emissions of carbon dioxide. There is no tipping point where
emissions start to decline when high enough GDP is reached, as some hypotheses say.
Among the mechanisms for explaining why the Human Development Index (HDI) can actually
result in better environmental quality as countries grow richer, are improved technology,
increased demand for environmental quality and better government regulation. The
environmental model of the Kuznets Curve is based on the counterbalancing impact and
forecasts a rise in environmental degradation as the countries get wealthier, with
comparatively high per capita incomes. This theoretical setting includes watching declining
environmental sustainability as less developed economies rise. However, the environmental
consequences of economic growth could slow down and gradually revert, beginning at some
amount of income per capita (Keng & Khan, 2019). The theory of EKC is the most commonly
used methodology for evaluating the GDP per capita relationship with environmental pollution.
The inverted U-shaped pattern was dubbed an environmentally-friendly Kuznets curve after
the original Kuznets curve after Grossman's first EKC analytical analysis and it represents the
inverted U-figures of Kuznets' income-equality. The EKC suggests that the environmental
condition continues to drop at an early stage of economic growth before the average benefit in
the developed stage hits a certain level and then increases (Armeanu et al., 2018).
2.2.8 Energy Consumption and Environmental Pollution

The research on energy consumption and environmental pollution was carried out by
Rafindadi et al. (2018): data from the Simultaneous Equations Panel Model in developed
countries. The paper´s findings indicate that energy consumption raises CO2 emissions. The
source of energy consumption and CO2 pollution occurs in a bi-directional manner. Their
findings also indicate the per capita effects of GDP on CO2 emissions. The empirical findings
show energy use and environmental pollution in these countries. The economic relationship
shows, thus, that reducing the CO2 emissions of developed countries depends on the change of
the energy consumption trend and renewable energies simultaneously replace fossil fuels in
their production. Therefore, it is important to commit to sustainable growth in those countries
in international negotiations to control CO2 emissions and energy consumption. Martins et al.
(2019) opined that many sources of energy have an environmental impact. By most acts,
including air and water pollution, public health damage, biodiversity and habitat destruction,
water use, land use and greenhouse gas emissions, fossil fuel, oil and natural gas cause
significantly higher harm than renewable energy sources. However, the environmental effects
of renewable energy, such as wind, solar, geothermal, biomass and hydropower, may also be
significant. Depending on the particular technology, the geographical condition and some
further considerations, the precise form and severity of environmental impacts differ. By
recognizing the environmental problems currently and the potential associated with
each, renewable energy sources can effectively mitigate or prevent these consequences, as they
become an increasing part of our energy supply.
Liu & Lin (2019) studied energy consumption, economic development and environmental
improvement in China. Researchers have addressed that China is under more and more
pressure to curb pollution, as the largest developing country in the world. However, will China
achieve parallel growth in energy consumption, economic growth and environmental
protection? The paper analyzed the long-term and causal relationship between energy
consumption, economic growth and environmental pollution in China from 1993 to 2017, in
order to address the issue. This approach is based on a multivariable vector error correction
model based on the Johansen cointegration test and the Granger causality test. Empirical
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studies showed that long-term relationships occur between energy consumption, economic
growth and degradation of the environment. The test findings show that the cause of pollution
is both energy use and industry effluents, while the cause of environmental pollution is energy
consumption, and vice versa. The strategy would suggest that strategies to save resources and
mitigate pollution can be implemented without impeding economic growth.
2.3 Conceptual Framework

A conceptual framework is concept of connection between variables in a research and it shows
the connection graphically or dramatically. The independent variable in this case is
industrialization and the dependent variable is environmental pollution. The moderating
variable between the independent and dependent variable will be government policy.
Explanatory Variables
• Population Growth
• Urbanization
• Economic Growth (GDP)
• GDP per Capita
• Energy Consumption
Environmental Pollution
Industrialization
• Air Pollution
• Industrial Output • Water Pollution
• Land Pollution
Figure 2. 4: Conceptual Framework
2.4 Research Hypothesis

According to Abdullaev (2018), industrialization has caused environmental pollution in terms
of industrial waste. The high-polluting industries, such as thermal power plants, coal mining,
cement, iron and sponge, steel and ferroalloys, oil and chemical products are the cause of dust,
smoke, fumes and toxic gasses. As mentioned earlier, the objective of this research is to
investigate the relationship between industrialization and environmental pollution in
Tajikistan adopting other explanatory variables such as population growth, urbanization,
economic growth (GDP), GDP per capita and energy consumption in order to provide a detailed
conclusion.
2.4.1 Industrialization lead to environmental pollution

A study carried out by Abdusamadzoda et al. (2020) showed that apart from causing economic
growth which his positive, industrialization´s negative side has resulted in a sudden increase
in population, urbanization, over-representative stress on basic life-support systems and
environmental impacts has been created together with economic growth which have led to the
thresholds of tolerance. Based on the nature and severity of pollution, the Tajikistan industry
is now classified as Red, which means high pollution. To test this hypothesis, the researcher
will carry out an analysis to check whether industrialization has led to environmental pollution
in Tajikistan.
H1: Industrialization lead to environmental pollution in Tajikistan.
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2.4.2 Population growth leads to environmental pollution

Мирзоев (2019) viewed that the rapid population growth could be attributed to major causes
of environmental degradation in Tajikistan. The population growth of Tajikistan is increasing
pressure on the constantly degrading and limited natural resource base in Tajikistan. The
growing population has led to rapid growth in Tajikistan's energy production, consumption,
and environmental degradation. To test this hypothesis, the researcher will carry out an
analysis to check whether population growth has led to environmental pollution in Tajikistan.
H2: Population growth lead to environmental pollution in Tajikistan.
2.4.3 Urbanization leads to environmental pollution

Uncontrolled urbanization in Tajikistan has resulted in very rapid environmental degradation,
causing many problems such as soil degradation, worsened water quality, increased air
pollution, noise and waste disposal problems. While Tajikistan is one of the least urbanized
countries in the world, it has now undergone a severe urban growth crisis although
urbanization is an instrument of economic, social and political progress. To test this hypothesis,
the researcher will carry out an analysis to check whether urbanization has led to
environmental pollution in Tajikistan
H3: Urbanization leads to environmental pollution in Tajikistan.
2.4.4 Economic growth (GDP) leads to environmental pollution

The Tajikistan economy has been growing by an average of 7% since 2011. While this is good,
it has come up at the expense of the environment due to increased industries and urban
sprawling. The effect of economic growth on the environment includes increased usage of
energy sources which are non-renewable, increased pollution levels, global warming and
possible habitat loss. The higher economic growth has come at the expense of the environment.
To test this hypothesis, the researcher will carry out an analysis to check whether economic
growth (GDP) has led to environmental pollution in Tajikistan
H4: Economic growth (GDP) lead to environmental pollution in Tajikistan.
2.4.5 GDP per capita leads to environmental pollution

Cederborg and Snöbohm (2016) on their research question, is there a relationship between
economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions? In order to investigate the potential impact of
economic growth on environmental degradation, the study explored the relationship between
per capita GDP and per capita emissions of carbon dioxides (CO2). The research was carried
out on cross-sectional data in 69 industrial and 45 developing countries. Several hypotheses
were reviewed with differing views on the potential environmental destruction impacts of
economic growth. Their research concluded, however, that there is a relationship between
economic growth and the degradation of the environment. As Tajikistan´s economy improves,
the GDP per capita is improving and an increase in the middle class which is aware of
environmental degradation hazards. Does this have any effect on environmental pollution in
Tajikistan? To test this hypothesis, the researcher will carry out an analysis to check whether
GDP per capita has led to environmental pollution in Tajikistan.
H5: GDP per capita leads to environmental pollution in Tajikistan.
2.4.6 Energy consumption leads to environmental pollution

Alvarez et al. (2017) discussed that today's global energy consumption helps pollute, and
degrade the environment and global greenhouse emissions. The rise of population and the
economic growth that continues to increase per capita energy usage are causing rises in energy
consumption. So, the inevitable population rise in the short term and the economic growth
required for many countries have significant environmental effects, because energy usage is
already growing. Currently, oil, gas and coal are the second most used energy sources in
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Tajikistan. However, most of these decisions to use oil, natural gas and fossil fuels do
substantially more damage than renewable energy sources. These damages include air and
water pollution, public health damage, wildlife and habitat loss, poor quality water use, land
use and greenhouse gases emissions. To test this hypothesis, the researcher will carry out an
analysis to check whether energy consumption has led to environmental pollution in
Tajikistan.
H6: Energy consumption lead to environmental pollution in Tajikistan.
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY.
3.1 Research Design
The type of research design that will be employed in this study is co-relational research design.
In general, correlation research examines co-variation between two or more variables
(Bloomfield & Fisher, 2019). It can be accomplished by a variety of data which include the
collection of empirical data. Often times, co- relational research is considered type of
observational research as nothing is manipulated by the experimenter or the individual
conducting research. Co-relational explanations argue that phenomenon Y (such as
environmental pollution) is related or affected by factor X (such as industrial activities).
3.2 Population and Sample

Population is a collection of items with the appropriate knowledge that can respond to research
questions and which the researcher is interested in (Creswell & Creswell, 2017). The target
demographic for the research was industrial growth, index of industrial output, other
alternative variables indexes included population growth, urbanization, economic growth
(GDP), GDP per capita and energy consumption data in Tajikistan. This data is time series and
is a collection for the period 1990 to 2019.
3.3 Data Collection

To achieve the objective of this study, secondary data was be used. Secondary data can be
defined as information collected by someone other than a researcher for a purpose other than
the research project at hand (Martins, Cunha & Serra, 2018). The secondary data included
information on the industrial output (industrialization) population growth, urbanization,
economic growth (GDP), GDP per capita, energy/power consumption and greenhouse gases
emission index (environmental pollution). This data was collected from World Bank, relevant
institutions inside Tajikistan and other publications.
3.4 Data Analysis and Presentation

This research aim is to examine the relationship between industrialization and environmental
pollution in Tajikistan. Co-integration and Causality analysis were adopted on long and short
run dynamics and causal relationships between industrial output, population growth,
urbanization, economic growth (GDP), GDP per capita, energy consumption and greenhouse
gases emission (environmental pollution) in Tajikistan over the period of 1990–2019. The
collected data was analyzed using quantitative techniques notably Statistical Package for the
Social Sciences (SPSS) software to enable the carrying out of the analysis. Because we have
more than one independent variable, multiple regression analysis will be the best statistical
tool to use. The analyzed data will be presented in tables, graphs and charts. The multiple
regression analysis was specified as follows;
Y= β0 + β1(X1) t + β2(X2) t + β3(X3) t + β4(X4) t + β5(X5) t + β6(X6) t + e…………………………(1)
Where,
Y = Environmental Pollution (Green House Gases Emissions)
X1 = Industrial Output
X2= Population Growth
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X3= Urbanization (Urban Population)

X4= GDP (Economic Growth)
X5= GDP Per Capita
X6= Energy (Power) Consumption
e= is the error term
t= time dimension
Whereby:
β0 = the minimum Y when the rest of the variables are held at a constant zero
In statistical studies like this, consisting of the analysis of large numbers, it is advisable to use
the logarithm function to avoid the advent of problems such as "heteroskedasticity" during the
results. To avoid such a problem, equation (1) will be defined as follows:
L (GHGE) = β0 + β1 L (IO)30 + β2 L(PopG)30 + β3 L(U)30 + β4 L(GDP)30+ β5 L(GDPPC)30 + β6

L(EC)30 + μt. (4)…………………………………………….. (2)
Here, log is used for natural logarithm and t for the time period of twenty-nine years. GHGE is
used for Greenhouse Gases Emissions, IO for Industrial Output, PopG for Population Growth, U
for Urbanization, GDP for Economic Growth, GDPPC for GDP per Capita and finally EC for
Energy Consumption.
4. DATA ANALYSIS, RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

4.1 Descriptive Statistics Analysis
Table 4.1 below presents descriptive statistics for the key variables used in this study. The total
number of observations in the analysis is 30, representing annual time series data, during the
period 1990 to 2019. The main topic for this study is to research the relationship between
industrialization represented by industrial output and environmental pollution in Tajikistan
represented by greenhouse gas emissions values. The industrial output mean was found to be
$0.46 billion while the standard deviation was $0.22 billion. For greenhouse gas emissions
mean was 14440.35 Kiloton of CO2 and the standard deviation was 3183.45 Kiloton of CO2. The
low value of standard deviation in these variables compared to means indicates the values
collected were uniform following a certain pattern, which in this case proves as
industrialization increases, environmental pollution in Tajikistan also increases. Explanatory
variables, economic growth (GDP) has the highest mean and the highest standard deviation of
$3.89 billion and $2.85 billion respectively. Population growth (POPG) (M=6.95 million people,
SD=1.20 million people). Urbanization (UPop) (M=1.90 million persons, SD=0.28 million
persons). Power consumption (PC) (M=2075.12 Kw/h, SD=509.33 Kw/h). GDP per Capita
(GDPPC) (M= $516.36, SD=$312.57). Therefore, the standard deviation of each individual
series is small from its mean, indicating a low coefficient of variation of the series.
Table 4. 1: Descriptive Statistics

N Mean Maximum Minimum Std. Deviation Skewness Kurtosis
IO 30 0.460 0.897 0.186 0.223 0.403 -1.432
PopG 30 6950267.60 9321018 5283814 1196129.450 0.469 -0.928
UPop 30 1899851.195 2544637.914 1640069.148 280930.104 0.959 -0.322
GDP 30 3.887 9.113 0.861 2.845 0.532 -1.393
GDPPC 30 516.358 1104.172 138.429 312.568 0.391 -1.347
PC 30 2075.121 3358.560 1296.140 509.331 0.726 0.731
GHGE 30 14440.345 22661.267 10059.396 3183.453 0.895 0.780
4.2 Correlational Analysis

Table 4.2 shows the pairwise correlation matrix for the key variables involved in the analysis.
There is a positive linear association between industrial output, population growth,
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urbanization GDP growth, GDP per capita and greenhouse gas emissions (environmental
pollution). In addition, the results show that there is a negative impact between power
consumption and all other variables but a positive correlation on greenhouse gas emissions
(environmental pollution) in Tajikistan. In addition, the variable´s Pearson correlation is more
than .05. This indicates that there is a strong correlation between the variables. According to
Kozak and Piepho (2018), Pearson Correlation values greater than 0.05 suggest that the
variable under analysis is highly correlated.
Table 4. 2: Correlations
IO PopG UPop GDP GDPPC PC GHGE
IO 1 0.606** 0.754** 0.782** 0.785** -0.295 0.754**
PopG 0.606 ** 1 0.968** 0.899** 0.825** -0.906** 0.115
UPop 0.754** 0.968** 1 0.925** 0.861** -0.804** 0.323
GDP 0.782** 0.899** 0.925** 1 0.987** -0.711** 0.412*
GDPPC 0.785** 0.825** 0.861** 0.987** 1 -0.606** 0.492**
PC -0.295 -0.906 ** -0.804** -0.711** -0.606** 1 0.272
GHGE 0.754** 0.115 0.323 0.412* 0.492** 0.272 1
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).
4.3 Stationarity Properties

The stationary test applied the unit roots test which is better in testing the unit roots before
the co-integration of the variables in order to avoid lying problems (Engle and Granger, 1987).
As previously stated, the unit root test method was the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test.
For easier analysis, because the values are big, the data was log-transformed. The results of the
unit root test are shown in table 4.3 below.
Table 4. 3: Unit Root Test Results

AT LEVEL FIRST DIFFERENCE
t Stat P-value t Stat P-value
LIO -1.143 0.264 -3.24 0.003
LPopG 4.992 0.000 -3.489 0.002
LUPop 0.238 0.814 -2.611 0.002
LGDP -0.424 0.676 -2.891 0.008
LGDPPC -0.664 0.513 -2.911 0.008
LPC -0.745 0.463 -3.074 0.005
LGHGE -2.248 0.034 -2.718 0.012
From the analysis, the variables at the level appear to be non-stationary but seem to be
stationary at first difference. The results show that the null unit root hypothesis could not be
rejected at the level. However, when the first differences of the logged variables are considered,
the null hypothesis is rejected in favour of an alternative hypothesis which states that the series
is stationary. Thus, their first difference turns out to be stationary. These results provide an
indication of the existence of a possible long-term relationship in the model. This justifies the
test of co-integration and causality in checking whether the model has a long-term relationship
or not.
In addition, the results are presented in the form of an interception. Critical value statistics are
given in response to MacKinnon values. All variables are transformed by applying the
logarithm. According to table 4.3, the variables were not stationary at the first difference, this
is because some values were less than the calculated critical value at 95% which is -1.711. But
after taking the first difference, all variables become stationary i.e. the values of the t-statistic
were greater than -1.711 which means rejecting the null hypothesis but accepting the
alternative hypothesis. This shows that the series is stationary. In conclusion, the series is
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integrated in order of 1(1) i.e. stationary after the first difference. NB: The values are only taken
in absolute terms hence we ignore the negative.
4.4 Cointegration Analysis

After detecting that all series are I (1), the Johansen maximum co-integration analysis was
applied to test for the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables that are non-
stationary. The results were as shown in Table 4.4.
Table 4. 4: Johansen Test for Co-integration

Maximum Rank Trace Statistics Critical Value Max-Eigen Statistic Critical Value
0 190.8045 94.15 79.9541 39.37
1 110.8504 68.52 44.4495 33.46
2 66.4009 47.21 36.0369 27.07
3 30.3641 29.68 16.9203 15.97
4 13.4138 13.26 10.9327 10.07
5 6.2143 5.54 5.2361 6.31
6 2.4810 3.76 2.48810 3.76
** Trace test indicates 5 eqn (s) of cointegration at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the null hypothesis at the 0.05 level
The approach of Johansen was used to test the cointegration. The Johansen test generally
involves two tests namely "Trace statistics" and "Maximum eigenvalue". The null hypothesis to
be tested for the case of the trace test is there at most "r" number of co-integration vectors
while the null hypothesis for the eigenvalue test is there "r" co-integrating vectors against the
existence of alternative r + 1 (Naidu et al., 2017). Based on the results of co-integration in Table
4.4, the Trace Statistics and Max Eigenvalues of maximum rank from 0-5 are higher than the
critical value hence we reject the null hypothesis. This means we have more than 5
cointegration equations in this model. This leads to the conclusion that we reject the null
hypothesis of no cointegration in this model hence this indicates there exists a long run
indication that there is a long-term relationship between the variables.
4.5 Causality Test Analysis

The study employed the Granger causality Wald Test to test for causality between variables.
The results were as seen in table 4.5 below.
Table 4. 5: Granger causality Wald Test

Independent Variable Dependent Variable Prob > chi2
Log IO Log GHGE 0.019
Log PopG Log GHGE 0.000
Log U Log GHGE 0.000
Log GDP Log GHGE 0.044
Log GDPPC Log GHGE 0.455
Log EC Log GHGE 0.035
From the results, we can deduce that the P value on industrial output is 0.019 which is less than
0.05 which shows there is a causal relationship between IO and GHGE we reject the null
hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis that industrial output causes the emission of
greenhouse gases (environmental pollution). The P value of population growth is 0.000 which
is less than 0.05 which shows there is a causal relationship between population growth and
emission of greenhouse gases hence we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative
hypothesis that population growth causes the emission of greenhouse gases (environmental
pollution). The P value of urbanization is 0.000 which is less than 0.05 which shows there is a
causal relationship between urbanization and the emission of greenhouse gases hence we
reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis that urbanization causes
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emission of greenhouse gases (environmental pollution). The P value of economic growth

(GDP) is 0.044 which is less than 0.05 which shows there is a causal relationship between
economic growth (GDP) and the emission of greenhouse gases hence we reject the null
hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis that economic growth (GDP) causes the
emission of greenhouse gases (environmental pollution). The P value of GDP per capita is 0.455
which is more than 0.05 which shows there is no causal relationship between GDP per capita
and emission of greenhouse gases hence we do not reject the null hypothesis that GDP per
capita does not cause emission of greenhouse gases (environmental pollution). Finally, The P
value of energy consumption is 0.000 which is less than 0.05 which shows there is a causal
relationship between energy consumption and the emission of greenhouse gases hence we
reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis that energy consumption
causes the emission of greenhouse gases (environmental pollution).
4.6 Regression Analysis

Since all the variables are found to be co-integrated at most 5, there exists a long-run dynamic
relationship between the variables. Granger shows that if at least two variables are co-
integrated, there will be causality between them at least in one direction. In order to determine
the direction of causation between the variables, a regression analysis was carried out. The
results are shown in table 4.6.
Table 4. 6: Model Summary

Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate
1 0.977a 0.954 0.942 0.0216375
a. Predictors: (Constant), Log EC (Kwh per capita), Log IO (Billions of US $), Log GDPPC (US $), Log UPop, Log PopG (Millions),
Log GDP ( Billions of US $)
Based on the results, the coefficient value of R is 0.977, representing 97.7 per cent, which
indicates that there is a coefficient between the study variables. The value of R Square is 0.954,
which constitutes 95.4% per cent, suggesting that there is a 95.4% chance of variables other
than Industrial Output, Population Growth, Urbanization, GDP, GDP per Capita and Energy
consumption that affects the Environmental Pollution (Greenhouse Gases Emissions) in
Tajikistan.
At a 5% confidence level, analysis of variance was carried out (ANOVA). Findings are shown in
Table 4.7.
Table 4. 7: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression 0.198 6 0.040 84.680 0.000b
Residual 0.011 23 0.000
Total 0.209 29
a. Dependent Variable: Log GHGE (KT of CO2)
b. Predictors: (Constant), Log EC (Kwh per capita), Log IO (Billions of US $), Log GDPPC (US $), Log UPop, Log PopG (Millions),
Log GDP ( Billions of US $)
From the table, (0.000 < 0.05) which shows that the model was significant. This finding show
that the overall regression was significant in determining the relationship between
industrialization (Industrial output) and environmental pollution (Greenhouse gases
emission). According to Piepho (2018), if the p-value is less than 0.05, then the overall
regressions is significant.
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Table 4. 8: Regression Coefficients

Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.
1 (Constant) 3.486 3.383 1.030 0.002
Log IO 0.329 0.052 0.831 0.247 0.000
Log PopG 0.355 0.391 0.294 1.596 0.000
Log UPop 0.708 0.486 0.503 3.023 0.000
Log GDP 0.154 0.036 0.640 4.327 0.000
Log GDPPC -0.158 -0.041 -0.544 -3.847 0.001
Log EC 0.545 0.202 0.618 2.705 0.013
a. Dependent Variable: Log GHGE (KT of CO2)
The regression equation of long run which obtained is:
LGHGE= 3.486+0.329LIO+0.355LPopG+0.708LU+0.154LGDP-0.158LGDPPC + 0.545LEC

From the overall regression coefficient Table 4.8, the findings prove that, all factors kept
constant, environmental pollution would be at 3.486. The finding also showed that an increase
in industrial output would increase environmental pollution (greenhouse gases emission) by
32.9%. A unit change population growth would increase environmental pollution (greenhouse
gases emission) by 35.5%. Urbanization would increase environmental pollution by 70.8%
when there is unit increase. A unit increase of GDP would increase environmental pollution by
15.4%. A unit increase of GDP per Capita would reduce environmental pollution by 15.8%.
Finally, a unit increase of energy consumption would increase environmental pollution by 54.5
%.
4.7 Results and Discussions

The discussion of the results consists of tests which were applied to the annual time series data,
during the period 1990 to 2019. The first test was descriptive statistics, showing the total
number of observations in the analysis is 30. Additionally, the standard deviation of each
individual series is small from its mean, indicating a low coefficient of variation of the series.
The second test is that of the correlation which indicates the existence of a linear and positive
association between industrial output, population growth, urbanization, economic growth,
GDP per capita and emission of greenhouse gases (environmental pollution). Third, the
stationarity test was applied and at the level, the variables were not stationary but after the
first differentiation, all the variables are stationary. Then the cointegration test was undertaken
which showed that there is a long-term relationship between the variables. Since all variables
are co-integrated at plus 4, there is also a causal relationship between them.
The regression gives the equation below, the interpretation here will be done one by one from
a statistical point of view and also from the Tajikistan point of view.
L (GHGE) = β0 + β1 L(IO)t + β2 L(PopG)t + β3 L(U)t + β4 L(GDP)t - β5 L(GDPPC)t + β6 L(EC)t + μt.
LGHGE =3.486+0.329LIO+0.355LPopG+0.708LU+0.154LGDP-0.158LGDPPC + 0.545LEC
i.IO represents industrial output (Industrialization)
The results show that showed that an increase in industrial output would increase
environmental pollution (greenhouse gas emission) by 32.9%. This means there exists a
positive relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable. The p-
value of the variable is 0.000 which is less than 0.05 meaning industrial output has a significant
relationship with environmental pollution in Tajikistan.
This result was observed in a study carried out by Abokyi et al. (2019) indicating a positive link
between industrialization and environmental pollution when they opined that the global
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environment has been deteriorating over the years this is because industrial processes play a
significant role. Environmental policy and emerging technology in developed countries
decrease environmental damage per produced unit, but industrial activity and increased
demand continue to place environmental and natural resource stresses on the basis of
production. The environmental effects in developed countries are two-fold: old environmental
issues, such as deforestation and land degradation, remain largely unresolved. Newer
industrialized challenges, such as increased greenhouse gas emissions, air and water
contamination, increased waste volumes, desertification and pesticides, arise concurrently.
Tajikistan's industrial development is driven by seven well-established industrial estates. New

industrial estates are also being planned because of the industrial-friendly environment as
several big industrial firms with a national reputation and many prominent multinationals
have shown considerable interest in building their plants in Tajikistan in the near future. Along
with economic growth, this accelerated industrialization led to sudden population growth,
urbanization and apparent stress on basic life support structures, which took environmental
impacts closer to tolerance threshold limits. In Tajikistan, factories have been rated as Red,
Orange and Green based on the type and intensity of emissions, with respect to extreme, middle
and low pollution capacity in that order. Currently, 19% of the overall sectors are in the red
band, 21% orange and 60% green. By mid-2019, Tajikistan was expected to generate about
36,768 tons per year of hazardous waste (Мирзоев, 2019).
ii.PopG refers to population growth.

The results obtained in this study show that a unit change population growth would increase
environmental in pollution (greenhouse gas emission) by 35.5%. This shows that there exists
a positive relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable. The p-
value of the variable is 0.000 which is less than 0.05 meaning population growth has a
significant relationship with environmental pollution in Tajikistan. This is held true by Liang
and Yang (2019) when they discussed that a high population growth rate, has weakened
environmental conditions, although population growth has proved to be a significant source of
growth. The effect of population growth on the environment is mainly attributed to use of
natural resources and waste production, environmental pressures such as depletion of
habitats, air and water contamination and increased pressure on arable land. In addition to
rising stresses on marginal lands, soil erosion, overgrazing, timber burns, soil erosion, silting
or floods, the rapidly growing population increases the use of pesticides, fertilizers, and
damage of the soil and water contamination. Rapid population growth could be attributed to
major causes of environmental degradation in Tajikistan. The population growth of Tajikistan
is increasing pressure on the constantly degrading and limited natural resource base in
Tajikistan. The growing population has led to rapid growth in Tajikistan's energy production,
consumption, and environmental degradation. The impact on soil, surface water pollution, air
pollution and global warming, lead to absolute poverty, which has become more and more of
an issue. In developing countries such as Tajikistan, the rate of environmental destruction and
degradation is much higher than in developed countries. Population growth is the annual
demographic change caused by disparities in birth over death and emigration and immigration
imbalances.
iii.U is the urbanization

The results showed that urbanization would increase environmental pollution by 70.8% when
there is a unit increase. This shows that there exists a positive relationship between the
independent variable and the dependent variable. The p-value of the variable is 0.000 which is
less than 0.05 meaning urbanization has a significant relationship with environmental
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pollution in Tajikistan. This was proved by Effiong (2018) when he discussed that, the big cause
of this environmental pollution situation is the overwhelming scale of the city population, the
haphazard and unforeseen rise of urban settlements, and the desperate shortage of
infrastructure. The exponential development of both natural and migrating urban communities
has exerted heavy demand on public services, such as infrastructure, hygiene, transport,
power, housing, sewage, water transport, power, public health and education. Urban spread
soon invades the valuable farmlands leading to the direct loss in vegetation biomass. Areas
with high probability of urban expansion are predicted to contribute about 5 percent of the
overall tropical deforestation and land use pollution are projected to increase in direct
reduction of trees and forests from areas with a high likelihood of urban growth. As a result of
uncontrolled urbanization in Tajikistan, there has been a very rapid environmental
degradation and a large number of problems such as land insecurity, water quality
deterioration, excessive air pollution, noise and waste disposal problems. While Tajikistan is
one of the least urbanized countries in the world, the country today is facing a severe crisis in
urban development from the little sprawling towns. These problems are economic, social and
political difficulties which have generated serious socio-economic problems. Urbanization,
attributable to industrialization and economic development is a phase that leads to cities'
growth. The population of Tajikistan increases by about 2.4 percent per year, averaging 820
live births per day. By 2050, if the trend persists, the world would have nearly 16.2 million
inhabitants, which is almost twice the current population.
iv.GDP or Economic growth

The study found that a unit increase of GDP would increase environmental pollution by 15.4%.
This shows that there exist a positive relationship between the independent variable and the
dependent variable. The p value of the variable is 0.000 which is less than 0.05 meaning
economic growth (GDP) has a significant relationship with environmental pollution in
Tajikistan. This was shown in a study by Kong and Khan (2019) when they discussed that the
relationship between the level of income and environmental degradation is reversed.
Economic growth is related to deterioration of the environment in the first stage. At this point,
the rise in manufacturing activities in low-level countries leads to an increase in the output of
high-oil energy and an increase in pollutant emissions. The pattern of environmental
destruction gradually decreases due to environmental consciousness, along with
manufacturing shifts and tighter environmental laws, as utilities grow and technologically
intense businesses dependent on information. Tajikistan economy has been growing with an
average of 7% since 2011. While this is good, it has come up at the expense of the environment
due to increased industries and urban sprawling. The effect of economic growth on the
environment includes increased usage of energy sources which are non-renewable, increased
pollution levels, global warming and possible habitat loss. The higher economic growth has
come at the expense of environment.
v.GDP per Capita (GDPPC)

The coefficient in this case is negative, hence the study observed that a unit increase of GDP per
Capita would reduce environmental pollution by 15.8%. This shows that there exists a negative
relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable. The p-value of the
variable is 0.001 which is less than 0.05 meaning GDP per capita has a significant relationship
with environmental pollution in Tajikistan. This was discussed by Keng and Khan (2019) when
they observed that, among the mechanisms for explaining why the Human Development Index
(HDI) can actually result in better environmental quality as countries grow richer, are
improved technology, increased demand for environmental quality and better government
regulation. The environmental model of the Kuznets Curve is based on the counterbalancing
150
impact and forecasts a rise in environmental degradation as the countries get wealthier, with
comparatively high per capita incomes. This theoretical setting includes watching declining
environmental sustainability as less developed economies rise. However, the environmental
consequences of economic growth could slow down and gradually revert, beginning at some
amount of income per capita.
As Tajikistan´s economy improves, the GDP per capita is improving and an increase in the
middle class which is aware of environmental degradation hazards. The governments of
Tajikistan decided to phase out substances used in refrigerators as they have the ability to
destroy stratospheric ozone. People are now aware of the need to conserve the environment
and the importance of green spaces in cities and towns. This is attributable to the rising middle
class which is well-educated and wants quality life. The booming Tajikistan construction
industry as a result of the demand for houses from the middle class, has established ways to
minimize building energy use, by constructing buildings that are more economical in heating,
illumination, cooling, ventilation and the provision of hot water.
vi.EC Meaning Energy (power) Consumption

The results revealed that a unit increase in energy consumption would increase environmental
pollution by 54.5 %. This means that there exists a positive relationship between the
independent variable and the dependent variable. The p-value of the variable is 0.013 which is
less than 0.05 meaning energy consumption has a significant relationship with environmental
pollution in Tajikistan. This is shown by Rafindadi et al. (2018) when they conducted research
on energy consumption and environmental pollution: data from the Simultaneous Equations
Panel Model in developed countries. The paper´s findings indicate that energy consumption
raises CO2 emissions. The source of energy consumption and CO2 pollution occurs in a bi-
directional manner. Their findings also indicate the per capita effects of GDP on CO2 emissions.
The empirical findings show energy use and environmental pollution in these countries. The
economic relationship shows, thus, that reducing the CO2 emissions of developed countries
depends on the change of the energy consumption trend and renewable energies
simultaneously replace fossil fuels in their production. Therefore, it is important to commit to
sustainable growth in those countries in international negotiations to control CO2 emissions
and energy consumption. Hydropower is Tajikistan's main energy source, followed by power
generated from oil, gas and coal. These non-renewable sources of energy have led to
environmental pollution when the power plants are operating. This includes air and water
pollution, public health damage, wildlife and habitat loss, water use, land use and carbon
emissions, which have significantly more harm than if Tajikistan could have adopted renewable
energy sources such as wind and solar.
5. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

This section is divided into two points, the first of which will be the conclusion according to the
empirical studies carried out, the second, the policies recommended to reduce environmental
pollution in Tajikistan.
5.1 Conclusion
The relationship between industrialization and environmental pollution is discussed in the
literature review in addition to other alternative variables. The theories of Environmentally
Responsible Behavior, Behavioral Change Model and Reasoned Action have also been widely
reviewed in this study, we note at the end of this study that the relationship between
industrialization and environmental pollution in Tajikistan is complex, to say the least. Based
on a Johansen and Max Eigen co-integration test, the empirical results demonstrated the
existence of a long-term relationship. Reasoning at the aggregate level, the results indicate that:
151
Population growth has a positive and significant impact on the emission of greenhouse gases
(environmental pollution) in Tajikistan hence the conclusion that population growth causes
environmental pollution in Tajikistan. Urbanization has a positive and significant impact on the
emission of greenhouse gases (environmental pollution) in Tajikistan hence the conclusion
urbanization causes environmental pollution in Tajikistan. Economic growth (GDP) has a
positive and significant impact on the emission of greenhouse gases (environmental pollution)
in Tajikistan hence the conclusion that economic growth (GDP) causes environmental pollution
in Tajikistan. GDP per capita has a negative impact on the emission of greenhouse gases
(environmental pollution) in Tajikistan hence the conclusion that GDP per capita does not
cause environmental pollution in Tajikistan. Energy consumption has a positive and significant
impact on the emission of greenhouse gases (environmental pollution) in Tajikistan hence
energy consumption causes environmental pollution in Tajikistan. The main question this
thesis was trying to answer is, does industrialization affect environmental pollution in
Tajikistan? Based on the findings that industrial output (industrialization) has a positive and
significant relationship with emission of greenhouse gases (environmental pollution) in
Tajikistan, this study concludes that industrialization causes environmental pollution in
Tajikistan. Such a result, therefore, indicates the implication of industrial activities in Tajikistan
and is linked to the promotion policy that the State has to put in place. The results of causality
tests indicate short and long-term bidirectional causality in Granger's sense, from
industrialization to environmental pollution, in other words, industrial
activities/industrialization is the source of environmental pollution.
5.2 Recommendations
Rampant industrialization, urbanization, population growth, energy consumption and
economic growth have had a significant role in putting pressure on natural resources and also
causing environmental pollution of various magnitudes. Tajikistan has been experiencing a
similar kind of situation for many decades. The study recommends the following to curb this
trend:
1) Major efforts are highly required to ensure the sustainability of industrialization both in
terms of environmental pollution reduction measures as well as the promotion of more eco-
friendly industries. As a dynamic plan to protect the country's natural wealth, a transformation
of the sector into an eco-industrial network is required. Strong ties between industries and
employing clean technology measures will facilitate the transition to a diversified, high-income
economy while ensuring a safer environment.
2) Industry should recognize that the environmental and economic advantages of the eco-
industrial network will certainly bring in the long run and the socio-economic growth and the
sector will be improved greatly.
3) The Government of Tajikistan should develop strategies to overcome problems by changing
or introducing appropriate approaches and addressing missing aspects of the related policies
for reinforcing sustainable industrialization.
4) In order to provide for conditions under which industrial symbiosis (IS) can thrive,
industries require a combination of incentives, laws, management, intelligence and other
technology mechanisms.
5) Regional development agencies and local governments should accept the responsibility for
balancing economic development with maintaining a clean environment such that an industry
caught polluting the environment and unhealthy waste disposal should face the full force of the
law even if it’s providing employment opportunities and economic growth to the region
6) Giving back to the environment is the best way to reduce environmental degradation.
Industries should consider it one of the CSR activities as planting trees, since trees give us clean
air to breathe, basically filter the bad carbon dioxide and pump the good oxygen, so without
152
trees, we would never be able to survive. This is initiative industries and companies can
consider.
7) Recycling should be adopted in Tajikistan by industries as the best way of slowing
environmental degradation and should be shared by everyone. Recycling is the best way to
prevent environmental degradation and this is a mission everybody in the world should take to
save the planet.
8) Industries and individuals should minimize the use of fossil fuels, such as oil in their
machine operations. The government should provide incentives and tax reductions for the
assembly of electric cars, and solar panels, energy-saving building materials. This way
industrialization will be realized at the same time promoting environmental protection.
Companies should switch to go green for the purpose of cutting down their overall resource
consumption, such as power.
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Cite this article:

UMARALIEVA, Takhmina & Guy Merlain DJAKOU (2023). Relationship between
Industrialization and Environmental pollution in Tajikistan. International Journal of Science
and Business, 26(1), 130-154. doi: https://doi.org/10.58970/IJSB.2171
Retrieved from http://ijsab.com/wp-content/uploads/2171.pdf
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Volume: 26, Issue: 1

Relationship between Industrialization and

Keywords: Industrialization, Urbanization, Economic Growth, Environmental Pollution, Tajikistan.

About Author (s)

1.1.2 Environmental Pollution

1.1.3 Industrialization and Environmental Pollution in the Context of Tajikistan

1.2.1 Specific Objectives

Knowledge Awareness or Attitude Action

Figure 2. 1: Behavioral Change Model

2.1.2 Theory of environmentally responsible behavior (ERB)

Figure 2. 2: Theory of Environmentally Responsible Behavior (ERB)

No single mechanism is responsible for existing behaviours of waste management systems or

2.1.3 Reasoned/Responsible action theory

Figure 2. 3: Theory of Reasoned/Responsible Action

2.2 Empirical Literature

2.2.2 Country-specific Studies

2.2.3 Industrial Growth and Environmental Pollution

In an analysis by Rahman and Kashem (2017), the environmental impacts of industrial

2.2.4 Population Growth and Environmental Pollution

Poverty is a major consequence of population growth, and it plays a major role in

2.2.5 Urbanization and Environmental Pollution

2.2.6 Economic Growth (GDP Growth) and Environmental Pollution

2.2.7 GDP Per Capita and Environmental Pollution

2.2.8 Energy Consumption and Environmental Pollution

2.3 Conceptual Framework

2.4 Research Hypothesis

2.4.1 Industrialization lead to environmental pollution

2.4.2 Population growth leads to environmental pollution

2.4.3 Urbanization leads to environmental pollution

2.4.4 Economic growth (GDP) leads to environmental pollution

2.4.5 GDP per capita leads to environmental pollution

2.4.6 Energy consumption leads to environmental pollution

3.2 Population and Sample

3.3 Data Collection

3.4 Data Analysis and Presentation

X3= Urbanization (Urban Population)

L (GHGE) = β0 + β1 L (IO)30 + β2 L(PopG)30 + β3 L(U)30 + β4 L(GDP)30+ β5 L(GDPPC)30 + β6

4. DATA ANALYSIS, RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

Table 4. 1: Descriptive Statistics

4.2 Correlational Analysis

4.3 Stationarity Properties

Table 4. 3: Unit Root Test Results

4.4 Cointegration Analysis

Table 4. 4: Johansen Test for Co-integration

4.5 Causality Test Analysis

Table 4. 5: Granger causality Wald Test

emission of greenhouse gases (environmental pollution). The P value of economic growth

4.6 Regression Analysis

Table 4. 6: Model Summary

Table 4. 7: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)

Table 4. 8: Regression Coefficients

LGHGE= 3.486+0.329LIO+0.355LPopG+0.708LU+0.154LGDP-0.158LGDPPC + 0.545LEC

4.7 Results and Discussions

Tajikistan's industrial development is driven by seven well-established industrial estates. New

ii.PopG refers to population growth.

iii.U is the urbanization

iv.GDP or Economic growth

v.GDP per Capita (GDPPC)

vi.EC Meaning Energy (power) Consumption