HUL Result Updated
HUL Result Updated
HUL Result Updated
November 1, 2011
HUL
Performance Highlights
(` cr) Revenue EBITDA OPM (%) PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
2QFY11
4,681 563 12.0 526
`388 -
2QFY12
5,522 738 13.4 645
% yoy
18.0 31 134bp 22.6
Angel Est
5,345 672 12.6 599
% Diff
3.3 9.8 79bp 7.5
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
HUL posted a strong set of numbers for the quarter, above our estimates. The companys top line grew by 18% yoy to `5,522cr (`4,681cr). Recurring earnings for the quarter grew by 22.6% yoy to `645cr, above our estimates. We remain Neutral on the stock. Key highlights during the quarter: HUL posted impressive top-line growth of 18% yoy, driven by healthy volume growth of 10% yoy. Overall, FMCG sales grew by 20% yoy, aided by 20.5% yoy growth in the home and personal care (HPC) business and 17% yoy growth in the foods business. The soaps and detergent (S&D) segment posted 21.8% yoy revenue growth, while its EBIT margin expanded by 65bp yoy to 12.4%. The packaged food business reported 20.9% yoy growth. The personal products segment grew by 18.2% yoy, registering the tenth consecutive quarter of double-digit volume-led growth. At the operating level, OPM expanded by 134bp yoy to 13.4%. During the quarter, HUL reduced its ad spends and other expenses and negated the affect of gross margin pressure. Outlook and valuation: Post 2QFY2012, we maintain our revenue and earnings estimates. We expect HUL to post a ~13% CAGR in its top line over FY2011-13E, largely aided by steady performance of the companys personal care and foods division (aided by innovations and higher ad spends), spike in detergents volume growth and modest performance of its soaps business (aided by brand re-launches). In terms of earnings, we expect HUL to post a ~17% CAGR. At the CMP of `388, the stock is trading at 29.2x FY2013E earnings. We see a limited upside in the stock price from current levels; hence, we maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 52.5 12.1 17.7 17.7
3m (4.6) 20.4
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit (Adj.) % chg OPM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
FY2010 17,524 (13.4) 2,103 (15.9) 14.5 9.7 38.5 32.5 90.5 101.3 4.7 32.0
FY2011 19,401 10.7 2,099 (0.2) 12.2 9.7 36.4 31.9 80.5 88.5 4.2 34.6
FY2012E 21,865 12.7 2,523 20.2 13.6 11.7 33.3 26.8 87.5 93.1 3.7 27.2
FY2013E 24,637 12.7 2,877 14.0 14.0 13.3 29.2 23.3 85.3 93.6 3.3 23.3
Sreekanth P.V.S
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6841
Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales Consumption of RM (% of Sales) Staff Costs (% of Sales) Advertising Expense (% of Sales) Other Expenses (% of Sales) Total Expenditure Operating Profit OPM (%) Interest Depreciation Other Income PBT (excl. Extr. Items) Extr. Income/(Expense) PBT (incl. Extr. Items) (% of Sales) Provision for Taxation (% of PBT) Recurring PAT PATM (%) Reported PAT Equity shares (cr) FDEPS (`)
2QFY12 5,522 3,001 54.3 287 5.2 651 11.8 844 15.3 4,784 738 13.4 1 57 166 847 44 891 16 202 23.9 645 11.7 689 216 3.2
2QFY11 4,681 2,383 50.9 245 5.2 646 13.8 843 18.0 4,118 563 12.0 0 55 161 668 40 709 15 143 21.3 526 11.2 566 218 2.6
% yoy 18.0 25.9 17.3 0.8 0.1 16.2 31.1 671.4 3.1 3.3 26.7 25.7 41.8 22.6 21.7 21.7
1HFY2012 11,026 6,075 55.1 574 5.2 1,284 11.6 1,676 15.2 9,609 1,417 12.9 1 113 292 1,595 103 1,699 15 382 24.0 1,213 11.0 1,316 216 6.1
1HFY2011 9,475 4,830 51.0 496 5.2 1,398 14.8 1,590 16.8 8,313 1,162 12.3 0 109 285 1,338 59 1,397 15 297 22.2 1,040 11.0 1,099 218 5.1
% chg 16.4 25.8 15.7 (8.1) 5.4 15.6 22.0 273.3 4.1 2.5 19.3 21.6 28.6 16.6 19.7 19.7
November 1, 2011
(` cr)
2,000 1,000 -
5.0 -
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
(%)
3,000
10.0
(%)
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
Top-line (LHS)
`cr)
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
( %)
(%)
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
PAT (LHS)
OPM
Gross margin
November 1, 2011
2Q12
2QFY12 2,593 1,613 653 332 291 116 5,597 321 394 88 16 24 (8) 836 77 912 12.4 24.4 13.4 5.0 8.3 (6.7)
2QFY11 2,129 1,365 570 274 265 4,756 250 314 88 10 19 (18) 662 75 737 11.7 23.0 15.4 3.7 7.1 (12.0)
1HFY2011 5,148 3,243 1,262 704 597 223 11,177 557 807 163 34 48 (10) 1,599 116
1HFY2010 4,394 2,730 1,108 590 529 9,617 499 653 157 36 42 (45) 1,341 50 1,391 11.4 23.9 14.2 6.1 7.9 (16.9)
23.8
23.2
November 1, 2011
(` cr)
(`cr)
(%)
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
Top-line (LHS)
EBIT (LHS)
EBIT % (RHS)
2Q12
(`cr)
(`cr)
(%)
1,000 500 -
10.0 5.0 -
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
EBIT (LHS)
EBIT % (RHS)
Top-line (LHS)
November 1, 2011
2Q12
(%)
15.0
(%)
Investment arguments
Increasing innovation and brand repositioning to accelerate growth: HUL has been very actively re-launching products from its existing brands and has increased the pace of new launches, targeting the mid/premium market segment (re-launched Lux, Lifebuoy and Vim in the personal products and the S&D categories, respectively). This, in our view, is positive, considering that the company will have a better control on pricing. Moreover, constant innovations have helped HUL stabilize its market share losses. However, we retain a slight caution against ITCs commitment to categories such as soaps, shampoos and skin care, which may pose a major threat to HUL in the long run. We model in an 8.5% and a 15.7% CAGR in the S&D and personal products segments revenue over FY2011-13E and expect margin to come in at ~12% and ~25% for S&D and personal products segments, respectively. Healthy domestic growth rates and strong balance sheet provide further impetus: HUL, with its iconic brands, has maintained its growth, which is impressive given the recent price hikes across categories and a strong competitive scenario, indicating a revival in consumer demand and higher growth in the mid/premium market segment. Moreover, HUL is a cash-rich, zero-debt company enjoying high RoE of ~75%. We have modeled in a recurring earnings CAGR of ~17% over FY2011-13E, though we expect the companys margin to be under pressure due to high input cost inflation.
November 1, 2011
Dec-05
Dec-07
Dec-09
Apr-05
Apr-07
Apr-09
Aug-06
Aug-08
Sensex
HUL
15x
20x
25x
30x
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Oct-11
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Aug-06
Aug-07
Aug-08
Aug-09
Aug-10
Dec-10
Aug-10
Apr-11
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: Blue line indicates 5-year average
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: Blue line indicates 5-year average
November 1, 2011
Aug-11
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
CY07 14,715 1,040 13,675 13,675 13.0 11,797 7,269 1,440 768 2,320 1,879 14.0 13.7 138 1,740 14.7 12.7 25 432 20.1 2,146 15.3 (182) 2,329 403 18.8 1,743 1,743 1,925 3.8 14.1 8.0 8.0 14.7
FY09# 21,650 1,410 20,239 20,239 48.0 17,583 10,810 2,131 1,152 3,490 2,656 41.4 13.1 195 2,461 41.4 12.2 25 590 19.5 3,025 40.9 4 3,021 524 17.3 2,501 2,501 2,496 29.7 12.3 11.5 11.5 43.3
FY10 18,220 696 17,524 17,524 (13.4) 14,975 8,878 2,391 936 2,770 2,548 (4.1) 14.5 184 2,364 (3.9) 13.5 7 350 12.9 2,707 (10.5) (99) 2,806 604 22.3 2,103 2,103 2,202 (11.8) 12.6 9.6 9.6 (16.0)
FY11 20,306 904 19,401 19,401 10.7 17,036 10,057 2,764 961 3,254 2,365 (7.2) 12.2 221 2,144 (9.3) 11.1 0 586 21.5 2,730 0.9 (207) 2,937 631 23.1 2,099 2,099 2,306 4.7 11.9 9.7 9.7 0.9
FY12E 22,895 1,030 21,865 21,865 12.7 18,893 10,977 3,170 1,104 3,642 2,972 25.7 13.6 247 2,725 27.1 12.5 0 553 16.9 3,277 20.0 0 3,277 754 23.0 2,523 2,523 2,523 9.4 11.5 11.7 11.7 20.1
FY13E 25,852 1,215 24,637 24,637 12.7 21,181 12,147 3,696 1,244 4,094 3,456 16.3 14.0 273 3,183 16.8 12.9 577 15.4 3,760 14.7 0 3,760 884 23.5 2,877 2,877 2,877 14.0 11.7 13.3 13.3 14.0
November 1, 2011
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Preference Capital Reserves& Surplus Shareholders Funds Minority Interest Total Loans Deferred Tax Liability Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Investments Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Other Current liabilities Net Current Assets Total Assets
#
CY07 218 1,221 1,439 89 (212) 1,315 2,669 1,147 1,523 186 1,441 3,277 201 680 2,397 5,111 (1,834) 1,315
FY09# 218 1,844 2,062 422 (255) 2,229 2,882 1,275 1,607 472 333 5,601 1,777 758 3,066 5,784 (183) 2,229
FY10 218 2,365 2,584 (249) 2,335 3,582 1,420 2,162 274 1,264 5,368 1,892 624 2,852 6,733 (1,365) 2,335
FY11 216 2,418 2,634 (210) 2,424 3,760 1,590 2,169 299 1,261 6,095 1,640 701 3,754 7,400 (1,305) 2,424
FY12E 216 2,919 3,135 (210) 2,925 4,417 1,838 2,579 442 1,761 6,362 2,010 809 3,543 8,218 (1,857) 2,925
FY13E 216 3,393 3,609 (210) 3,400 4,879 2,111 2,768 488 2,261 6,952 2,042 924 3,985 9,068 (2,116) 3,400
CY07 2,146 138 122 (142) 403 (26) 1,836 (289) 998 709 (633) 16 2,292 (148) (2,762) (216) 417 201
FY09# 3,025 195 (330) (126) 524 (19) 2,220 (629) 1,167 538 39 333 1,677 (122) (1,181) 1,576 201 1,777
FY10 2,707 184 1,375 (117) 604 (67) 3,477 (502) (931) (1,434) 32 (422) 1,656 (117) (1,929) 115 1,777 1,892
FY11 2,730 221 (242) (190) 631 (416) 1,472 (203) 3 (199) (73) 0 1,642 (190) (1,525) (252) 1,892 1,640
FY12E 3,277 247 895 (167) 754 26 3,525 (800) (500) (1,300) 0 0 2,023 (167) (1,855) 370 1,640 2,010
FY13E 3,760 273 281 (187) 884 11 3,255 (508) (500) (1,008) 0 0 2,402 (187) (2,215) 33 2,010 2,042
November 1, 2011
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Returns (%) RoCE Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) Net Working capital (days)
#
CY07 43.9 44.6 58.3 2.3 6.1 44.3 63.2 8.0 8.1 8.7 9.1 6.7 89.5 83.7 5.1 52 12 102 (54)
FY09# 33.9 31.1 40.7 1.9 4.1 31.3 37.3 11.5 11.6 12.5 7.5 9.5 138.9 142.9 7.0 46 10 77 (35)
FY10 38.5 36.7 32.5 1.7 4.7 32.0 34.9 9.6 9.7 10.6 6.5 12.0 103.6 90.5 4.9 45 14 110 (68)
FY11 36.4 36.2 31.9 1.7 4.2 34.6 33.8 9.7 9.7 10.7 6.5 12.2 90.1 80.5 5.2 53 18 114 (55)
FY12E 33.3 30.3 26.8 2.1 3.7 27.2 27.7 11.7 11.7 12.8 8.0 14.5 101.9 87.5 5.0 46 14 109 (65)
FY13E 29.2 26.6 23.3 2.4 3.3 23.3 23.7 13.3 13.3 14.6 9.5 16.7 100.7 85.3 5.1 46 13 106 (62)
November 1, 2011
10
E-mail: [email protected]
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
HUL No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) :
November 1, 2011
11