Lesson 2 Basic Concepts of Probability

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STATISTICS

AND
PROBABILITY
Basic
Concepts of
Probability
Coin Toss
Experiment
A.Toss a coin 10 times.
No. of heads:
No. of tails:
Write the number in fraction form.
Heads:
Tails:
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B. Toss a coin 20 times.
No. of heads:
No. of tails:
Write the number in fraction form.
Heads:
Tails:
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C. Toss a coin 30 times.
No. of heads:
No. of tails:
Write the number in fraction form.
Heads:
Tails:
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1. How many times did
the heads appear?the
tails?
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2. Add the fractions for
the outcomes of heads.

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3. Add the fractions for
the outcomes of tails.

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Random
Experiment
It is an action or process
that leads to one of
several possible
outcomes.
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Examples:
Tossing a Coin

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Collectively exhaustive
means that the possible
outcomes must be
included.
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Mutually exclusive
means that no outcomes
can occur at the same
time.
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Sample
Space
It is a list of all possible
outcomes of an
experiment.
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Sample Point
It is an individual
outcome of an
experiment.
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Finite sample
space
It has a finite number of
outcomes in it.

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Infinite
sample
space
It the number of
outcomes in the sample
space is not finite.
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Null space
It has no outcomes in it
and, consequently,
cannot occur.
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Cardinality
The total number (k) of
the sample points.

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Event
It is any subset of the sample
space (S) consisting of one or
more sample points to which
a probability is assigned.
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Example: tossing a coin twice
Event: Getting at least 1 head

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Counting
Sample
Points
If a certain experiment can be
performed in 𝒏𝟏 ways and
corresponding to each of these ways
another experiment can be performed in
𝒏𝟐 ways, then the combined experiment
can be performed in 𝒏𝟏 . 𝒏𝟐 ways.
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Suppose a coin and a die are
tossed. Find how many outcomes
there are in the sample space.

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If repetition of the digit is not
allowed, how many three-digit
numbers can be formed from the
digits 1,2,4,5 and 6? How many of
these are odd?
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Probability of
an Event
Probability
It is a numerical measure of
the likelihood of the
occurrence of an event.
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Properties of
Probability
Probability
0≤ 𝑷 𝑬 ≤ 𝟏
a. P(E)=0, if the event cannot occur
b. P(E)=1, if the event occurs every
time.

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Probability
∑𝑷 𝑬 = 𝟏 𝒐𝒓 ∑𝑷′ 𝑬
The list of all outcomes must be a
non-overlapping set of events that
includes all the possible outcomes.

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Probability

𝑷 𝑨 +𝑷 𝑨 =𝟏
The complement of event A is the
event that occurs when event A does
not occur.

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Classical
Approach
It is used to determine the
probability associated with
games of chance.

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𝒏(𝑬)
P(E)=
𝒏(𝑺)

n(E)= number of occurrence of E


in the sample space.
n(S)= cardinality of the sample
space.
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Find the probability of getting
exactly 2 heads when tossing
a coin twice.

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Find the probability of
drawing a face card from a
standard deck of cards.

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Counting
Techniques in
Computing
Probability
Permutation
Factorial
The number of
permutations of n distinct
objects is n! (read as n
factorial)
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In how many ways can 3
boys and 3 girls sit in a row?
In how many ways, if the
boys must sit together?
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Permutation
The number of permutations
of n objects taken r at a time is
𝒏!
P(n,r)=
𝒏−𝒓 !

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In how many ways can a
family of six be seated in a
mini-bus consisting of 20
chairs?
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Circular
Permutation
The number of permutations
of n distinct objects arranged
in a circle is (n-1)!

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If 4 Americans, 3 Chinese and 3 Filipinos
are to be seated at a round table, how
many seating arrangements are
possible when people of the same
nationality must sit next to each other?

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Permutation
with
Repetition
The number of distinct permutations
of n objects of which 𝒏𝟏 are of the
first kind, 𝒏𝟐 of a second kind, 𝒏𝒌 of a
kth kind is
𝒏 𝒏!
=
𝒏𝟏 , 𝒏𝟐,… 𝒏𝒌 𝒏𝟏!𝒏𝟐!…𝒏𝒌
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In how many ways can the
letters of the word
indeterminate be arranged?

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Combination
The combination of n objects
taken r at a time is a selection
of r objects out of n where
order does not count.
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𝒏!
C(n,r)=
𝒓! 𝒏−𝒓 !

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A high school wants to buy a six
computers for its laboratory from a
local supplier. The supplier has ten
computers in the stock. How many
ways are there to buy six computers
from the supplier?
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Empirical
Approach
𝒏(𝑬)
P(E)=
𝑵

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If you cast a fair die 25 times
and 8 of them result in a “6”,
what is the emperical
probability observed in this
event?
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Worksheet
no. 2
Tell whether the following set
of data has finite sample
space or infinite sample
space.
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1. The set of all species of
birds in California.
2. The set of all persons in
America for the year 2023.
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3. Set of all points in a plane
4. Set of all whole numbers
5. Set of all natural
numbers less than 25.
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6. Set of whole numbers
between 5 and 45.
7. Set of positive integers
that is a multiple of 3.
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8. Set of all natural
numbers
9. Set of all integers
10. Set of square root of 81.
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Group
Activity
Group 1: Three coins
Group 2: Pair of Dice
Group 3: Deck of Cards
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Group 1: A coin is tossed thrice. Find:
a. The sample space
b. The total number of sample points
c. The probability of getting exactly 3
heads
d. The probability of getting at least 1
tail.
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Group 2: A die is tossed. Find:
a. The sample space
b. The probability of getting an odd
number?
c. The probability of getting a number
greater than or equal to 5
d. A number less than 4
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Group 3: Draw a card from a standard
deck of cards. Find
a. Probability of getting an ace?
b. Probability of getting a black card?
c. Probability of getting a heart?
d. Probability of getting a face card
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