How Urban Morphology Relates To The Urban Heat Isl

sustainability
Article
How Urban Morphology Relates to the Urban Heat Island
Effect: A Multi-Indicator Study
Biao Liu, Xian Guo * and Jie Jiang
School of Geomatics and Urban Spatial Informatics, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,
Beijing 100044, China; [email protected] (B.L.); [email protected] (J.J.)
* Correspondence: [email protected]
Abstract: Urban morphology quantitatively expresses a city’s spatial structure, internal relationships,
and physical form. It has advantages for predicting urban growth and analyzing the current state
of cities in the literature. A comprehensive study on the complex relationships between urban
morphology and urban heat island intensity (UHII) is of great importance for mitigating the urban
heat island (UHI) effect for megacities. This study models urban morphological indicators in fine
resolution based on three aspects: building morphology, ecological infrastructure, and human
activities. The model accurately captures UHII by employing the definition of UHI effects. The
relationship between urban morphology and UHII was further examined using extreme gradient
boosting (XGBoost) and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP). By taking central Beijing, China as
study area, major findings include the following: (1) Significant daytime UHI effects were observed
within the research area, particularly during the summer months, when it appears to be most severe.
More than 90% of the region experiences varying degrees of the UHI effects. (2) UHI is significantly
correlated with both 2D and 3D urban morphological indicators. Low sky view factor (SVF) and high
SVF tend to mitigate UHI, whereas moderate SVF tends to aggravate UHI. (3) In densely populated
areas, tall trees may be more effective than other forms of vegetation at mitigating UHI. Based on the
aforementioned findings, this article suggests that urban morphology optimization should focus on
seasonality, spatial specificity, and indicator specificity for megacities in urban design and spatial
planning aimed at mitigating UHI.
Keywords: urban morphology; urban heat island intensity; XGboost regression; energy balance
Citation: Liu, B.; Guo, X.; Jiang, J.
How Urban Morphology Relates to
the Urban Heat Island Effect: A
Multi-Indicator Study. Sustainability
1. Introduction
2023, 15, 10787. https://doi.org/
10.3390/su151410787 In recent years, cities have become essential living spaces for over half of the world’s
population, and the continuous growth of urban populations has resulted in significant
Academic Editor: Baojie He
transformations in urban morphology [1]. Humans colonize the biosphere by replacing
Received: 8 June 2023 natural land surfaces with impermeable built environments, resulting in anthropogenic
Revised: 5 July 2023 emissions, such as heat and pollution, and the destruction of vegetation could otherwise
Accepted: 6 July 2023 absorb these emissions [2]. Consequently, urban areas exhibit higher air and surface
Published: 10 July 2023 temperatures compared to outlying rural regions, known as the urban heat island (UHI)
phenomenon [3]. With the ongoing expansion of cities, the UHI effect has been intensifying,
leading to various detrimental impacts on society, including increased energy consump-
tion [4], aggravated pollution [5], and adverse effects on people’s health conditions and
Copyright: © 2023 by the authors. status of wellbeing [6]. Therefore, it is imperative to address this issue urgently and gain
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
a clear understanding of the factors influencing UHI in order to effectively mitigate its
This article is an open access article
harmful effects.
distributed under the terms and
Research has shown that the UHI effect is influenced by multiple factors, including
conditions of the Creative Commons
climatic components, urban morphology, land surface characteristics, and human activi-
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
ties [7]. While previous studies have primarily focused on climatic component and land
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
4.0/).
surface characteristics, urban morphology actually plays a crucial role in the formation
Sustainability 2023, 15, 10787. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151410787 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

Sustainability 2023, 15, 10787 2 of 20
and growth of the UHI effect [8]. Differing from climatic components and land surface
characteristics, urban morphology encompasses various aspects such as urban structure
types, landscape patterns, and settlement density, which are key factors in the formation
and development of the UHI effect [9]. Numerous studies have demonstrated that urban
morphology substantially affects surface temperature [10]. However, due to the multiple
quantitative indicators associated with urban morphology, which can describe the spatial
structure, internal relationships, and landform characteristics of cities from different per-
spectives, the main objective of this study is to comprehensively establish the correlation
between 2D and 3D indicators at a fine scale and the UHI effect.
At the macroscale of cities, some progress has been made in the study of the re-
lationship between urban morphology and UHI. Using spatial autocorrelation analysis,
geographically weighted regression, and other techniques, researchers have analyzed the re-
lationship between urban landscape and the UHI effect [11]. This field of study emphasizes
the importance of land use changes, impervious surfaces, vegetation, and water bodies
in contributing to the UHI effect [12–14]. However, the role of urban morphology, such
as building height and building density, is often overlooked in many cases. The influence
of urban morphology on the UHI effect is particularly prominent at the microscale. As a
result, several studies have proposed that urban morphological features at the microscale,
such as building density and layout, can significantly impact the urban heat island effect.
Nevertheless, most indicators are based on 2D analyses, while it has been demonstrated
that 3D spatial morphology represents a crucial characteristic of urbanization.
In a 3D urban context, some researchers have examined the relationship between
urban morphology and the UHI effect [15]. The majority of experimental studies utilize
medium-to-high-resolution remote sensing images in conjunction with digital surface
models to extract building form characteristics [16]. Nonetheless, this approach is incapable
of acquiring accurate details regarding the contour and altitude of individual constructions.
In contemporary times, the swift advancement of remote sensing technology has led to
the increasing prevalence of 3D geographic information data, which encompass building
story heights and building outlines. These data provide effective support for extracting
large-scale fine-grained urban 3D spatial form indicators, such as sky view factor and
building density [17,18]. Consequently, using 3D geographic information data for building
feature extraction has become a widely discussed method. The majority of researchers
have only calculated the Pearson correlation coefficient between the landscape and UHI
effect, concluding that the majority of landscape indicators are significantly correlated, but
lacking a detailed analysis of the effect of each morphology indicator on the UHI effect [19].
Simultaneously, certain researchers have only considered the impact of building space
while disregarding the mutual influence between various land cover types [20], resulting in
the insufficient explanatory power of morphology indicators for the UHI effect. Moreover,
there is a divergence of opinions regarding the effectiveness of 3D urban morphological
indicators in influencing UHI compared to 2D indicators [18,21].
Traditional regression analysis models, such as multiple linear regression [22] and
polynomial regression [23], are based on predefined linear or nonlinear relationships
and still have advantages in certain specific scenarios. However, their ability to handle
complex relationships is limited. On the other hand, machine learning models have
the capability to automatically learn complex relationships from data, enabling them to
better fit complex real-world problems and nonlinear relationships [24]. Random forests,
XGBoost, support vector machines, and artificial neural networks are widely used models
in current research [25]. Although machine learning models have been proved effective in
classification and regression, it still remains challenging to understand the interrelationships
between the factors with these ‘black box’ models [26]. At the same time, traditional
regression analysis methods are inadequate to support in-depth analysis of the correlation
between various urban morphological indicators and the UHI effect [27]. To address these
issues, we have introduced an interpretable modeling approach, known as the Shapley
additive explanations (SHAP) method. The SHAP model is one of the methods based
on the framework of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) [28], which is designed to

increase the interpretability and explainability of AI models [29,30]. In addition, we have
also considered the comprehensive impact of different urban land cover types, such as
buildings, water bodies, and vegetation, on the relationship between urban morphology
and UHI.
The purpose of this study is to use multisource remote sensing data to construct
2D/3D urban morphology models and emerging SHAP interpretable models to achieve
quantitative modeling of urban morphology expression, and to investigate the correlation
between urban morphology and the UHI effect. Specific objectives are (1) to introduce
multi-indicators to characterize 2D/3D urban morphology; (2) to explore the relationship
between urban morphology and UHI during different seasons, including its stability and
variations; (3) to investigate the impact of various urban morphologies on the UHI effect. It
is important to note that although this study investigates the variations of the seasonal UHI
effect, the adverse impacts of UHI on the environment and human health are particularly
pronounced during summer daytime [31]. Therefore, the focus of this study lies primarily
on summer daytime conditions. As part of this work, the following research questions are
addressed: (1) How do different types of indicators impact on UHI? (2) Are the effects of
indicators on UHI consistent across different seasons?
The relationship between urban morphology and the UHI effect is comprehensively
explored by this study, which can also offer advice for urban planners and policymakers on
how to enhance the urban thermal environment during the summer days through rational
landscape planning and urban management.
2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Urban Morphology Indicators and Data Preparation
The present research institute focused on urban climate has a plethora of indicators
about urban morphology, thereby posing a challenge in ascertaining the typical and repre-
sentative indicator type. Drawing upon earlier definitions of the urban spatial form [32–34],
and by the research objectives of this investigation, a total of eight indicators were iden-
tified to characterize urban morphology. The building form indicators were all derived
from building vector data, including diversity of building shapes (DBS), floor area ratio
(FAR), sky view factor (SVF), and building height (HIGH). The indicators normalized dif-
ference built-up index (NDBI), modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI), and
normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were calculated using Landsat 8 satellite
imagery data. The population density (PD) indicator was derived from population raster
data. These indicators collectively encompass various aspects of building form, ecological
infrastructure, and human activity. Table 1 enumerates the classification and explication of
each indicator. Table 2 presents the spatial resolution of each dataset. To ensure consistency
of scale for regression analysis, a 500 m × 500 m grid was used for sampling in ArcMap
10.2, taking into account differences in data types and resolution.
Table 1. Urban morphology indicators.
Type Name Description Calculation

Diversity of building The diversity of building ∑ n ( n −1)
shapes (DBS) shapes in the area D = 1− N ( n −1)
The density of the horizontal Q
2D building form indicators Floor area ratio (FAR) R=
distribution of buildings S
Normalized difference Building and impermeable
NDBI = (SWIR − NIR)/ (SWIR + NIR)
built-up index (NDBI) surface coverage
The extent to which the sky is ∑in=0 sin γi
Sky view factor (SVF) SVF = 1 −
blocked by buildings n
3D building form indicators
The average height of
Building height (HIGH) H IGH = L ∗ H
buildings in the area
Table 1. Cont.
Type Name Description Calculation

Normalized difference Growth, abundance, and
NDVI = (NIR − Red)/(NIR + Red)
vegetation index (NDVI) coverage of vegetation
Ecological infrastructure Modified normalized
difference water index Coverage of water bodies MNWDI = (Green − SWIR)/(Green + SWIR)
(MNDWI)
The density of population in
Human activities Population density (PD) /
the area
Notes: D is the diversity index, N is the total number of individuals, n is the number of individuals. R is the
volume ratio, Q is the total area of the space unit building, S is the area of the plot. n = 360, γi is the direction of
the observer’s line of sight. L is the number of storeys, H is the height of the storey. NIR indicates the reflectance
of the infrared band, Red indicates the reflectance of the red band in the visible band, Green indicates the visible
green band. SWIR indicates the reflectance of the shortwave infrared band.
Table 2. Experimental data introduction.
Data Type Resolution Time Use

17 December 2017 (Winter)
Thermal infrared band 30 m 27 June 2018 (Summer)
Landsat 8 satellite imagery Surface temperature inversion
Multispectral band 100 m 8 April 2018 (Spring)
17 October 2018 (Autumn)
Calculation of morphological
Building vector - 2018
indicators
Population density
Population raster 100 m 2018
calculations
Resources Satellite
2.1 m 2018 Auxiliary data
Three imagery
Nighttime light data 30 m 2015 Auxiliary data
Impervious surface data 30 m 2015 Auxiliary data
The present study used Landsat 8 satellite imagery, building vector data, Resource 3
satellite imagery data, and population data as the primary sources of information. Table 2
provides a comprehensive account of the resolution, acquisition time, and utilization of
each dataset. The selection of Landsat 8 satellite images was based on choosing four im-
ages with cloud cover less than 10% during the period from December 2017 to October
2018. The preprocessing of data typically encompasses several key steps, such as radio-
metric calibration, atmospheric correction, and the cropping of vector data to focus on the
study area.
2.2. Urban Heat Island Intensity Calculation

Urban heat island intensity (UHII) is a significant metric utilized for evaluating the
urban thermal environment. Its magnitude is intricately linked to factors such as urban
morphology, land utilization, and population density. Hence, the examination of alter-
ations and determinants of UHII holds significant pragmatic implications. This study
utilized preprocessed Landsat 8 satellite image data and used the single-window algo-
rithm [35] to perform land surface temperature inversion. Table 3 displays the inversion
outcomes of land surface temperature for the months of December 2017 and June, April,
and October 2018.
Table 3. Background field temperature.
Date Values
Winter—December 2017 2.07 ◦ C
Spring—April 2018 23.12 ◦ C
Summer—June 2018 36.33 ◦ C
Autumn—October 2018 17.57 ◦ C
The concept of UHII pertains to the disparity between the mean temperature in the
primary urban zone and the mean temperature in the neighboring suburban or rural
regions. This metric serves as an indicator of the strength of the UHI effect [36]. Thus, the
equation for computing UHII can be expressed as:
UH I IG = TG − Trural G = 1, 2 . . . n (1)
The calculation for Trural is as follows:

k
Trural = ∑ Ti /k (2)
i =1
TG is the surface temperature value, Trural is the background field temperature, k is

the total number of surface temperature values in the background temperature field region.
The present investigation utilized a methodology for selecting the urban background
temperature field that was derived from prior scholarly works [37,38]. In this paper, we
used the method proposed by Li [39] to detect urban growth and extract complete urban
region (Figure 1). This method utilizes two valuable remote sensing data sources: nighttime
light data and impervious surface data. The nighttime light data were obtained from the
NCEI National Centers for Environmental Information, while the impervious surface data
were acquired from Liu’s team [40]. The area outside the urban boundary with the same
area as the urban area was determined as the urban background temperature field, and the
average land surface temperature within this area was regarded as the urban background
Sustainability 2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 21
temperature [41].
The background field area is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1. The background

Figure 1. Thetemperature field region.
background temperature field region.
The background field area is shown in Figure 1.
2.3. Interpreting Machine Learning Models

2.3.1. XGBoost Regression
XGBoost is a decision tree-based machine learning algorithm [42] that is widely used
2.3. Interpreting Machine Learning Models

2.3.1. XGBoost Regression
XGBoost is a decision tree-based machine learning algorithm [42] that is widely used
for classification and regression tasks. Its core formulation can be expressed as follows:
k
F ( y ) = ϕ ( Xi ) = ∑ f k ( Xi ) (3)
k =1
F (y) is the predicted output of the model, Xi denotes the input variable, f k denotes
the kth weak evaluation function, i denotes the mean sample.
The XGBoost used involves the utilization of gradient boosting for the iterative training
of a sequence of decision trees, followed by the application of weighted averaging to
produce the ultimate predictions [43]. The XGBoost algorithm has been found to have
an advantage over other machine learning methods, such as random forests and support
vector machines. This advantage lies in its ability to enhance prediction accuracy while
simultaneously reducing the computational cost. This is achieved by amalgamating weak
regression trees into a robust model, whereby each tree endeavors to rectify residuals in
predictions made by its predecessors [44]. Furthermore, the XGBoost algorithm utilizes a
technique for identifying splits that is sensitive to sparsity during the training of sparse
data. This approach is particularly advantageous when working with data that have low
sampling rates, such as remotely sensed data. Based on the research objectives and data
sources of this study, it can be concluded that the XGBoost model is the most appropriate
option for conducting regression analysis.
2.3.2. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) Method

The significance of model interpretability is on the rise with the increasing prevalence
of machine learning in diverse domains. The opaqueness inherent in conventional machine
learning techniques renders the comprehension and interpretation of such models arduous.
Consequently, the investigation of techniques and instruments for interpreting models has
emerged as a prevalent domain of scholarly inquiry. The primary emphasis in machine
learning is typically on the precision and capacity for generalization of the model. However,
it is important to note that the prediction and decision-making mechanisms of the model
are also of critical importance [45].
Therefore, to comprehend the XGBoost regression model and its impact on UHII
through various indicators, the present study presents a novel approach to the interpre-
tation of machine learning models, specifically the SHAP method. Compared with many
other interpreting approaches such as the single-tree approximation method, decision rule
extraction, refining method, feature importance, and saliency mask methods [46], the SHAP
method offers more consistent and locally accurate attribution values that are individual-
ized for each prediction. The SHAP methodology is founded upon the principle of Shapley
values, which serve to elucidate the influence of individual features on the resultant output
of a given model. The Shapley value, as initially introduced by Lloyd Shapley [47] in the
field of game theory, serves to evaluate the individual contributions made by each partici-
pant towards achieving a win in a given game. The Shapley value is a technique employed
in the field of machine learning to determine the individual contribution of each feature
toward the model prediction. Through the computation of the Shapley value for individual
features, it is possible to derive a hierarchy of feature importance concerning the model’s
predictions, thereby enhancing our comprehension of the model’s predictive outcomes.
Furthermore, the SHAP methodology produces both a comprehensive and a spe-
cific interpretation for each instance by amalgamating the contribution of each feature’s
shape value with its actual value. The overarching interpretation pertains to the model’s
performance on the complete dataset, whereas the specific interpretation pertains to the
model’s performance on individual samples. The aforementioned interpretations can fa-
cilitate comprehension of the decision-making mechanism of the model, offer indications
for enhancing the model’s efficacy, and augment the dependability and explicability of
the model’s predictions. The present investigation examines the relationship between the
SHAP values and the degree of impact, as well as the directionality of changes, associated
with individual indicators on the intensity of the UHI effect. The calculation of SHAP
values is accomplished through the utilization of the formula as denoted by reference [48].
|S|!(p − |S| − 1)!

∑

j = (fx SU x j − f x (S)) (4)
S⊆{x1 }\{x }
p!
,...,xp j
j represents the contribution of the jth feature, x is the vector of feature values of the
instance to be explained, p is the number of features, f x (S) represents the prediction of the
feature values in a subset S.
The SHAP algorithm is available at https://github.com/slundberg/shap (accessed
on 6 December 2022) for information on specific calculation methods.
3. Results
3.1. Experimental Area
The city of Beijing is situated in the northern region of China, with its central point
located at a longitude of 116◦ 200 East and a latitude of 39◦ 560 North. It is surrounded by the
regions of Inner Mongolia, Hebei, and Tianjin. Beijing, being the capital of China, serves as
a hub for political affairs, cultural activities, international communication, and scientific
and technological advancements, encompassing a multitude of urban functions. The
climate of Beijing is characterized as a warm temperate semihumid and semiarid monsoon
climate, exhibiting significant fluctuations in temperature across the seasons [49]. During
the winter season, spanning from December to February, the mean temperature typically
hovers around −10 ◦ C, with the possibility of the temperature dropping to subzero levels
of below −20 ◦ C. During the summer season, which spans from June to August, the mean
temperature typically hovers around 25 ◦ C, while the maximum temperature can exceed
40 ◦ C. The city of Beijing experiences a concentrated amount of precipitation during the
summer season, with an estimated average annual precipitation of approximately 630 mm.
By the conclusion of 2022, it is projected that Beijing will harbor a populace of 21.843 million
and attain a regional Gross Domestic Product of CNY 416.09 billion [50]. The swift growth
of Beijing’s populace, infrastructure, and economy has significantly influenced the city’s
urban morphology [51]. Simultaneously, the expeditious proliferation of the metropolis has
resulted in numerous environmental challenges, particularly the effect of the UHI. Beijing is
deemed as a suitable city for this research based on its climatic and socioeconomic attributes.
Due to the large overall area of Beijing and the presence of mountainous suburban areas,
the city has expanded in a central pattern of urban development. Therefore, this study
mainly focuses on the area within the Fifth Ring Road, which has an approximate area of
667 square kilometers. Figure 2 displays the geographical region under investigation.
3.2. Distribution of UHII and Correlation of Multiple Indicators

This study utilized Landsat 8 remote sensing images within the Fifth Ring Road area
of Beijing for four distinct periods spanning from 2017 to 2018. The surface temperature
was inferred through implementation of the single-window algorithm, and the UHII was
calculated using the UHI definition. The UHII calculation outcomes were classified into
six categories using the Jenks natural break method [52] inversion results. These cate-
gories include non-heat island regions (<0 ◦ C), low-intensity heat island regions (0–0.5 ◦ C),
medium-intensity heat island regions (0.5–2 ◦ C), subintensity heat island regions (2–3.5 ◦ C),
high-intensity heat island regions (3.5–6.5 ◦ C), and very-high-intensity heat island regions
(>6.5 ◦ C).
proliferation of the metropolis has resulted in numerous environmental challenges, par-
ticularly the effect of the UHI. Beijing is deemed as a suitable city for this research based
on its climatic and socioeconomic attributes. Due to the large overall area of Beijing and
the presence of mountainous suburban areas, the city has expanded in a central pattern of
urban development. Therefore, this study mainly focuses on the area within the Fifth Ring
Sustainability 2023, 15, 10787 Road, which has an approximate area of 667 square kilometers. Figure 2 displays the 8ge- of 20
ographical region under investigation.
Figure
Figure 2. 2. Location
Location map
map ofof Beijing’s
Beijing’s Fifth
Fifth Ring
Ring Road
Road area
area (the
(the left
left map
map shows
shows geographical
geographical location
location
informationand
information andthe
theright map shows
right map shows the
thespatial
spatialdistribution of of
distribution buildings within
buildings the Fifth
within Ring Ring
the Fifth Road).
Road).
The spatial distribution of UHII exhibits significant seasonal variations, as illustrated
in Figure 3a. Aofdistinct
3.2. Distribution UHII and“strong west-east
Correlation and strong
of Multiple south-north” pattern characterizes the
Indicators
UHII distribution. During winter, the high-intensity
This study utilized Landsat 8 remote sensing images and very-high-intensity
within heat island
the Fifth Ring Road area
areas are primarily concentrated within the Second Ring Road and southwest of the Fourth
of Beijing for four distinct periods spanning from 2017 to 2018. The surface temperature
to Fifth Ring Roads. Utilizing the ArcMap raster calculator, the quantification of image
was inferred through implementation of the single-window algorithm, and the UHII was
elements was computed, revealing that the corresponding area constitutes approximately
calculated using the UHI definition. The UHII calculation outcomes were classified into
30% of the aggregate. By contrast, during the summer season, the UHI effect exhibits a
six categories using the Jenks natural break method [52] inversion results. These categories
more severe manifestation within the Fifth Ring Road. A majority of the regions within
include non-heat island regions (<0 °C), low-intensity heat island regions (0–0.5 °C), me-
this area, approximately 90%, demonstrate distinct levels of the UHI effect, which appear
dium-intensity heat island regions (0.5–2 °C), subintensity heat island regions (2–3.5 °C),
to cluster in a discernible pattern. The findings illustrated in Figure 3b,c indicate that
high-intensity heat island regions (3.5–6.5 °C), and very-high-intensity heat island regions
regions with high-intensity heat islands are predominantly situated in residential zones
(>6.5 °C).
characterized by compact constructions. Conversely, non-heat island areas are primarily
The spatial distribution of UHII exhibits significant seasonal variations, as illustrated
situated in blue-green spaces that are encircled by water bodies and vegetation. This means
in Figure 3a. A distinct “strong west-east and strong south-north” pattern characterizes
that water plays the most obvious role in the dissipation of heat in Beijing. However, it is
worth noting that regions with a prevalence of vegetation also exhibit reduced UHII. It is
an indisputable fact that regions characterized by a high concentration of buildings exhibit
elevated UHII levels. Chapter 4 will provide a more comprehensive analysis.
The objective of this research was to examine the correlation between the intensity
of UHII and the multi-indicator. Initially, a Pearson correlation coefficient analysis was
performed to evaluate the linearity of the association between the variables and to quantify
the extent of correlation between the two variables before executing a regression analysis.
The correlation coefficient is a numerical measure that varies from −1 to 1. A coefficient of
1 denotes a complete positive correlation, a coefficient of −1 denotes a complete negative
correlation, and a coefficient of 0 denotes no correlation. The objective of this analysis is to
ascertain the potential correlation between UHII and the multi-indicator. This will aid in
the selection of appropriate independent variables for subsequent regression analyses.
This means that water plays the most obvious role in the dissipation of heat in Beijing.
However, it is worth noting that regions with a prevalence of vegetation also exhibit re-
duced UHII. It is an indisputable fact that regions characterized by a high concentration
of buildings exhibit elevated UHII levels. Chapter 4 will provide a more comprehensive
analysis.
Figure
Figure 3. UHII
3. UHII distribution
distribution in in
allall seasonswith
seasons withtwo
two samples’
samples’ aerial
aerialphotos.
photos.
Table 4 displays Pearson’s correlation coefficients computed for the multi-indicator
The objective
about UHII. Theof this research
correlation was tofor
coefficients examine the correlation
the building between
indicators remain the intensity
consistent across of
UHIIalland the multi-indicator. Initially, a Pearson correlation coefficient analysis
four seasons, both positively and negatively. However, it is noteworthy that certain was per-
formed to evaluate
building theexhibit
indicators linearity of the
inverse associationFAR
correlations. between
and DBSthe exhibit
variables and to
positive quantify
correla-
tions throughout
the extent all seasons,
of correlation between whereas
the two HIGH and SVF
variables demonstrate
before executing negative correlations
a regression analysis.
throughout all
The correlation seasons. The
coefficient is a correlation
numericalcoefficients
measure thatexhibit significant
varies from −1variation across the of
to 1. A coefficient
diverse indicators, with the FAR indicator maintaining a value of approximately
1 denotes a complete positive correlation, a coefficient of −1 denotes a complete 0.4 and the
negative
SVF indicator approximately −0.2. The study found that there were significant negative
correlation, and a coefficient of 0 denotes no correlation. The objective of this analysis is
correlations between vegetation and water bodies across all seasons, except winter, where
to ascertain
vegetationtheindicators
potentialdisplayed
correlation between
positive UHII andWhile
correlations. the multi-indicator. This will aid
the majority of indicators
in the selection
were observedof to
appropriate independent
have a significant impact onvariables for subsequent
UHII throughout regression
all seasons, analyses.
except the PD
Table 4 displays
indicator, Pearson’s
none of the indicators correlation
were deemedcoefficients
adequate incomputed for the
independently multi-indicator
elucidating the
about UHII.
spatial The correlation
dispersion of UHII. coefficients for the building indicators remain consistent
Table 4. Pearson’s correlation between multi-indicator and UHII.
UHII FAR DBS HIGH SVF PD NDVI NDBI MNDWI

Spring 0.418 ** 0.398 ** −0.426 ** −0.237 ** 0.092 ** −0.125 ** 0.339 ** −0.179 **
Summer 0.410 ** 0.426 ** −0.298 ** −0.222 ** 0.005 −0.364 ** 0.339 ** −0.072 **
Autumn 0.378 ** 0.338 ** −0.384 ** −0.213 ** 0.064 ** −0.115 ** 0.215 ** −0.209 **
Winter 0.289 ** 0.355 ** −0.348 ** −0.173 ** 0.008 0.245 ** 0.171 ** −0.321 **
** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
3.3. XGBoost Regression between Multi-Indicator and UHII

To further investigate the impact of various indicators on UHII, an XGBoost regression
model was used to analyze multiple indicators, as presented in Table 5. These five sets
of independent variables were analyzed separately using XGBoost regression models to

examine the relative prominence of each indicator during specific seasons. The indicators
were categorized into five groups of independent variables: 2D building indicators, 3D
building indicators, all building indicators, ecological infrastructure indicators, and all multi-
indicators. As for the regression performance metric, it is not feasible to compare feature
importance across different groups due to its metric-specific nature. We chose explained
variance (R2 ) to offer a clearer explanation for performance variations among model groups.
Because UHII varies significantly across seasons, a sampling grid of 500 m by 500 m was
used, and distinct XGBoost regression models were developed for each season. Table 5 shows
that the models created for the 3D indicators had a lower R2 , whereas the R2 of all spatial 2D
indicators was enhanced in comparison to the 3D indicators across all four seasons. Summer
showed a significant difference of 16.7%. The 2D indicators predict UHII better than the
3D indicators. However, it is important to note that the 2D indicators do not provide a
comprehensive representation of the building indicators. This improvement is because the
building metrics models perform significantly better than their 2D counterparts. Specifically,
during the autumn season, the R2 value increased by 10.1%. Blue and green spaces are
important in urban areas. Including the ecoinfrastructure index may improve the ability to
predict UHII by an average increase of approximately 5% compared to the building model
in isolation. These findings indicate that using various indicators can enhance the ability to
predict UHII.
Table 5. The percentage of explained variance of UHII with different variable groups (under the
significance level of 0.05).
Variable Group Percentage of Explained Variance of UHII

Spring Summer Autumn Winter
2D building indicators 48.10% 45.60% 39.00% 38.10%
3D building indicators 35.10% 28.90% 30.70% 28.50%
all building indicators 56.30% 57.50% 49.10% 47.20%
ecological infrastructure indicators 29.50% 23.20% 30.50% 31.00%
all multi-indicators 60.60% 61.20% 53.70% 54.50%
Note: the higher the percentage, the darker the shade of red.
3.4. Contributions from Multi-Indicators Based on SHAP Summary Plots

Although XGBoost regression performs well in modeling complex nonlinear relation-
ships, it does not provide a comprehensive account of the contribution of each independent
variable to the dependent variable. To improve understanding of the model’s forecasts
and explain the function of the independent variables in the model, this investigation
introduces the SHAP interpretable technique. The SHAP approach can explain the impact
of individual 3D terrain metrics on changes in UHII. Figure 4 presents the SHAP values for
various metrics. The arrangement of metrics along the y-axis is based on their respective
contributions to UHII in each regression model, with the topmost metric having the highest
contribution and the bottommost metric having the lowest contribution. The chromatic
scheme used in the representation of the indicator values shows that red and blue hues
correspond to the magnitude of the values, with the transition from blue to red indicating
an increase in magnitude and a shift from negative to positive values, respectively. The hor-
izontal axis of the chart displays the dispersion of SHAP values for the image components
of the fishnet grid.
Based on the data presented in Figure 4a,b, it can be observed that the UHII experiences
a significant impact from the FAR (positive) during the spring and midsummer seasons. The
intensity of spatial development pertains to the level of infrastructure, such as buildings,
present within an urban area. Typically, an elevated spatial development intensity within an
urban area implies a greater number of structures, thereby resulting in an escalation of the
UHI effect [53]. The findings suggest that a decrease in the degree of spatial development
can have a notable impact on mitigating the UHI effect within urbanized regions. Based on
all multi-indicators 60.60% 61.20% 53.70% 54.50%
Note: the higher the percentage, the darker the shade of red.
3.4. Contributions from Multi-Indicators Based on SHAP Summary Plots

Sustainability 2023, 15, 10787 Although XGBoost regression performs well in modeling complex nonlinear 11 of 20
rela-
tionships, it does not provide a comprehensive account of the contribution of each inde-
pendent variable to the dependent variable. To improve understanding of the model’s
forecasts and explain
the findings presentedtheinfunction
Figure of theitindependent
4c,d, can be inferred variables
that thein two
the model,
primary this investi-
factors that
gation
impact introduces
UHII during the SHAP
varyinginterpretable
seasons aretechnique. The SHAP
HIGH (negative) andapproach
MNDWIcan explain the
(negative). The
impact
MNDWI of individual 3D terrain
indicator exhibits metrics on capacity
a noteworthy changes to in alleviate
UHII. Figure 4 presents
the heat the SHAP
island effect across
all seasons,
values albeit metrics.
for various exerting The
a substantial
arrangement impact on UHIIalong
of metrics solelythe
during winter.
y-axis Water
is based on bodies
their
have the contributions
respective potential to impact
to UHIIUHII
in eachbyregression
modulating the temperature
model, with the topmostof the surrounding
metric having
environment
the via the absorption
highest contribution and release metric
and the bottommost of heathaving
[54]. Additionally, water bodies
the lowest contribution. can
The
facilitate scheme
chromatic air convection,
used in whereby cooler air of
the representation fromthethe water body
indicator valuesisshows
transported
that redinto the
and
surrounding
blue area, resulting
hues correspond in a coolingof
to the magnitude effect [55]. The
the values, parameter
with of building
the transition from height,
blue towhen
red
altered, has
indicating an aincrease
notablein impact on theand
magnitude intensity
a shiftoffrom
the UHI effect,
negative toas indicated
positive by the
values, HIGH
respec-
(negative)
tively. value. The
The horizontal rationale
axis behind
of the chart this phenomenon
displays the dispersion is of
that
SHAPthe increased
values forheight
the im-of
buildings
age componentsleadsoftothe
a heightened
fishnet grid.flow of ambient air, thereby exerting a greater impact
on the alteration of ambient temperature and consequent exacerbation of the heat island
effect [56].
Summary
Figure4.4.Summary
Figure ofofSHAP
SHAPfeature
featuremaps
mapsfor
forXGBoost
XGBoostmodels
models based
based ononfour
fourseasons:
seasons:
(a)(a) spring;
spring;
(b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter.
(b) summer; (c) autumn; (d) winter.
It is noteworthy
Based on the datathat based on
presented inthe empirical
Figure 4a,b, itfindings
can be illustrated in Figure
observed that 4d, the
the UHII NDBI
experi-
metric exhibits a moderating influence on the UHI effect during the winter
ences a significant impact from the FAR (positive) during the spring and midsummer sea- season. However,
the extent
sons. of this moderating
The intensity effect is not statistically
of spatial development pertains to significant.
the level ofThere is a conjecture
infrastructure, such that
as
the reasonpresent
buildings, for thiswithin
phenomenon
an urban could beTypically,
area. attributedan to the dissipation
elevated spatialofdevelopment
absorbed heat in-by
impermeable
tensity within ansurfaces
urbanin the implies
area city, which occursnumber
a greater at a fasterof rate during thereby
structures, winter. Consequently,
resulting in
areas of the city with a greater concentration of impermeable surfaces
an escalation of the UHI effect [53]. The findings suggest that a decrease in the degree exhibit relatively
of
lower temperatures. The empirical findings indicate that DBS
spatial development can have a notable impact on mitigating the UHI effect within (positive) exerts a more
significant influence on the intensity of heat island across all seasons, as opposed to the
NDBI indicator, as illustrated in Figure 4a–d. Furthermore, the DBS indicator’s contribution
to the UHII ranks among the top four in all four seasons, indicating its relative immunity to
seasonal variations. The regions exhibiting elevated DBS values indicate a greater intricacy
of architectural design and a concomitant rise in the ratio of surface area to volume of
the buildings, thereby augmenting the absorption and reflection potential of the building
surface. According to research, complex buildings in urban areas tend to absorb solar
radiation and heat more efficiently than simpler buildings, leading to an overall increase in
temperature within the city [57]. Furthermore, it is noteworthy that the intricacy of building
structures may have an impact on the air circulation in urban areas. It is plausible that
buildings with more intricate designs could hinder airflow, leading to an increase in heat
transfer between buildings and a decrease in the exchange of heat between the building
mass and its surroundings [58]. Consequently, it is plausible that intricate architectural
structures with multifaceted configurations could exacerbate the UHI effect in comparison
to those with a uniform shape.
Based on the empirical findings depicted in Figure 4, it can be inferred that the
NDVI (negative) exhibits a robust ameliorating impact on the UHI effect throughout all
seasons, whereby an increase in vegetation coverage corresponds to a decrease in the
intensity of the UHI effect [59]. The reason for this phenomenon is that vegetation can
assimilate solar radiation and utilize it for photosynthesis, leading to a decrease in the
amount of solar radiation that reaches the ground directly. Furthermore, it is worth noting
that the transpiration process of vegetation has the potential to decrease the surrounding
temperature. The experimental results presented in Section 3.2 indicate that PD (positive)
is only pertinent during the spring and autumn seasons. Furthermore, the findings in
this section, as illustrated in Figure 4, demonstrate that PD has a lesser impact on the
UHII in comparison to the other indicators. This finding suggests that alterations in
population density do not constitute the primary determinant of the UHI effect in densely
populated regions. Section 4.1 provides a continuation of the comprehensive analysis of
the individual indicators.
Consequently, the strategic implementation of vegetation and trees possessing high
space-filling capacity across the three dimensions of the urban landscape is crucial in
addressing the issue of the UHI effect. Likewise, within metropolitan areas, the erection of
architecturally unobstructed skyscrapers plays a more significant role in mitigating UHII
than level impermeable terrains.
4. Discussion
4.1. Influences of Multi-Indicators on UHII
The comprehension of the UHI effect heavily relies on the energy balance equation,
which has gained significant use in UHI research [43,51,60]. The energy balance equation
is a mathematical expression that characterizes the equilibrium between the amount of
energy that enters and exits a given system. The UHI effect can be analyzed and evaluated
through the utilization of this method, which also considers the factors that contribute to its
formation. The energy balance equation serves as the fundamental framework for devising
effective strategies to mitigate and alleviate the UHI effect. The equation for energy balance
was initially introduced by Oke [61]:
Q∗ + Q F = Q H + Q E + ∆QS + ∆Q A (5)
where Q∗ represents the net all-wave radiation, Q F represents artificial heat, Q H represents
the sensible heat flux, Q E represents the latent heat flux density, ∆QS represents the heat
storage flux, ∆Q A represents the advective heat flux.
The surface heat storage flux is the main source and sink term in the energy balance
equation of the urban subsurface, and plays an important role in the redistribution of surface
energy. The difference in energy balance due to the different subsurface characteristics of
urban and suburban areas is the basis for the heat island effect [51]. The surface in urban
centers consists mainly of buildings, vegetation, and water bodies, while suburban areas
consist mainly of natural surfaces, agricultural land, and woodland. Therefore, to solve
the UHI effect problem, the contribution of buildings, water bodies, and vegetation to
the heat island effect needs to be sorted out. This section focuses on the contribution of
each morphological indicator to UHII based on the best regression model selected by the
XGBoost algorithm, using SHAP dependency plots.
4.1.1. The Influence of Building in 2D/3D Space

The impact of buildings on UHI is multifaceted and contingent upon the interplay
of various factors. The utilization of urban 3D morphology knowledge to facilitate intel-
ligent urban planning holds the potential to offer a viable resolution in addressing the
unavoidable UHI effect that arises as a result of urbanization [43]. The FAR indicator
is frequently employed to characterize the land use status and level of urbanization in
various geographical areas, such as cities, regions, or countries, by measuring the density
and coverage of buildings developed within a particular land area or spatial extent [34].
Figure 5 demonstrates that the SHAP value exhibits a positive correlation with the FAR
value, eventually plateauing as the FAR value approaches 0.5. Based on the observations
made in Figure 5a–c, it is evident that regions characterized by low FAR exhibit a mod-
erating influence on the UHI effect. Conversely, areas with high-density development
tend to exacerbate the UHI effect. The impact of building density on local-scale surface
temperature, air temperature, and UHII is a significant consideration [62]. The arrangement
of buildings frequently assumes a crucial and fundamental function in the emergence of the
UHI effect within a given locality. Once the degree of building development in a particular
Sustainability 2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 21
region is determined, there exists the limited potential for modifying the UHI effect through
alterations to the building structure [63].
Figure 5. SHAP dependency

Figure 5. dependency plots
plots for
for FAR
FAR with
with three
three samples’
samples’ aerial
aerialphotos.
photos.
It
It is
is noteworthy
noteworthy to
to mention
mention that
that the
the majority
majority of
of prior
prior research
research has
has simply
simply determined
determined
that the correlation between SVF and UHII is either affirmative [64] or adverse [21]. The
that the correlation between SVF and UHII is either affirmative [64] or adverse [21]. The
findings obtained from this experiment, as illustrated in Figure 6, indicate that the correla-
findings obtained from this experiment, as illustrated in Figure 6, indicate that the corre-
tion between the two variables does not exhibit a monotonic pattern. An ascending trend is
lation between the two variables does not exhibit a monotonic pattern. An ascending trend
observed when the SVF value falls below 0.85, whereas a descending trend is noted when
is observed when the SVF value falls below 0.85, whereas a descending trend is noted
the SVF value is less than 0.85. UHII experiences a weakening trend when the SVF value
when the SVF value is less than 0.85. UHII experiences a weakening trend when the SVF
is either excessively large or small. The aforementioned phenomenon can be elucidated
value is either excessively large or small. The aforementioned phenomenon can be eluci-
by the notion that the impact of SVF on the temperature response is determined by the
dated by the notion that the impact of SVF on the temperature response is determined by
proportionate influence of the two facets it impacts. On one hand, a higher SVF value
the proportionate influence of the two facets it impacts. On one hand, a higher SVF value
corresponds to increased openness, resulting in improved airflow and wind speed that
corresponds to increased openness, resulting in improved airflow and wind speed that
can impact temperature. On the other hand, a higher SVF value results in greater ground
exposure to solar radiation, which is a significant factor in temperature variation [65].
Based on the information gathered from the HIGH indicator, it can be inferred that the
impact of high-rise buildings on mitigating the UHII is more significant in comparison to
can impact temperature. On the other hand, a higher SVF value results in greater ground
exposure to solar radiation, which is a significant factor in temperature variation [65]. Based
on the information gathered from the HIGH indicator, it can be inferred that the impact of
high-rise buildings on mitigating the UHII is more significant in comparison to low-rise
buildings. The data presented in Figure 7 indicate that the mitigation of UHII becomes
significant when the height of the building surpasses 25 m. The primary factor contributing
to the attenuation of UHII by taller buildings is their ability to generate greater shadowing.
The impact of the height of buildings on the UHI effect may vary based on distinct urban
spatial configurations and underlying climatic conditions [21,66]. Empirical findings from
Shanghai, China indicate that vertical structures exceeding 30 m in height exhibit a mod-
erating influence on the UHI effect [43]. The DBS indicator exhibits a comparable pattern
to that of the FAR indicator, albeit with a greater susceptibility to the influence of UHII,
as evidenced by the data presented in Figure 7b. Different shapes of buildings15
Sustainability 2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW primarily
of 21
affect the UHI effect through their impact on ventilation [67]. A homogeneous cluster of
buildings of a single type may have better ventilation effects, thus mitigating the UHI [68].
Figure6.6.SHAP
Figure SHAP dependency plotsfor
dependency plots forSVF
SVFwith
withthree
threesamples’
samples’ aerial
aerial photos.
photos.
The experimental findings can be verified by the energy balance equation, wherein
the latent heat flux Q E , which is diminished by evapotranspiration, is substituted by the
sensible heat flux Q H , which retains heat on the urban surface, due to the conversion of
vegetation into buildings. In addition, it should be noted that the height and density of
buildings have the potential to impact the magnitude and rate of the heat storage flux ∆QS ,
and thus the intensity and duration of the UHI effect [60]. Taller structures possess a greater
capacity for heat storage and release, thereby exhibiting a more pronounced ability to
alleviate the UHI effect. The impact of buildings on UHII can vary depending on the spatial
scale [67]. Although buildings may have a cooling effect on a small scale, the proliferation
of buildings in urban areas can contribute to an overall increase in UHII at larger scales. To
summarize, there are varying thresholds for FAR, HIGH, SVF, and DBS in urban planning
and construction, which can be utilized by managers to enhance the thermal comfort and
livability of urban areas.
Figure 7. SHAP dependency plots for HIGH (a) and DBS (b).
The experimental findings can be verified by the energy balance equation, wherein
the latent heat flux 𝑄 , which is diminished by evapotranspiration, is substituted by the
Figure 6. SHAP dependency plots for SVF with three samples’ aerial photos.
Figure 7. SHAP dependency

Figure 7. plots
SHAP for HIGH (a)
dependency plotsand DBS (b).
for HIGH (a) and DBS (b).
4.1.2. The Influence of Vegetation and findings

The experimental Water Bodies in 2D/3D
can be verified by theSpace
energy balance equation, wherein
the latent heat flux 𝑄 , which is diminished by evapotranspiration, is substituted by the
Vegetation andsensible
bodies heatofflux
water are known
𝑄 , which to have
retains heat on theaurban
notable cooling
surface, due to effect on the of
the conversion
UHI effect. A positive NDVI
vegetation value
into is indicative
buildings. In addition,of vegetation
it should coverage
be noted within
that the height andadensity
given of
area. Therefore, ourbuildings
discussion have will be limited
the potential to thetheportion
to impact of the
magnitude and area
rate ofwhere the
the heat NDVI
storage flux
value is positive. It ∆𝑄 , and thus the intensity
is noteworthy that SHAP and duration
values of the UHIpositivity
exhibit effect [60]. Taller structureswhere
in instances possess a
greater capacity for heat storage and release, thereby exhibiting a more pronounced ability
NDVI is low, and conversely, they demonstrate negativity when NDVI attains higher
to alleviate the UHI effect. The impact of buildings on UHII can vary depending on the
values. Prior research endeavors exploring
spatial scale [67]. Although the association
buildings between
may have a cooling vegetation
effect and the
on a small scale, UHI pro-
have produced exclusively
liferation positive orinnegative
of buildings urban areascorrelations.
can contributeThis has been
to an overall documented
increase in
in UHII at larger
scales.
various studies [69,70]. TheTo diagram
summarize,depicted
there are varying thresholds
in Figure for FAR, HIGH,
8a illustrates SVF, andexhibiting
that regions DBS in urban
low NDVI values are characterized by being unpopulated, underdeveloped, and having
limited vegetation. Furthermore, it is observed that such areas have a positive impact
on the UHI effect. The graphical representation in Figure 8b,c reveals that regions with
elevated values primarily comprise tree and grass plantations along the thoroughfares.
Residential areas exhibit a verdant hue, albeit predominantly constituted of diminutive
shrubs that possess the limited potential for mitigating heat islands. The variance in the size
of trees can significantly influence the UHI effect, owing to the fact that larger trees have
the potential to offer greater evapotranspiration and shading effects [71]. A reduced NDVI
indicates that the distribution and size of vegetation are comparatively lower. This results
in a limited cooling impact on the air temperature, which can be easily overshadowed by
the presence of numerous heat sources in the surrounding environment [72,73]. The data
presented in Figure 8 indicate that vegetation has a notable impact on mitigating the UHI
effect. This effect is observed to be more pronounced when the NDVI value exceeds 0.1 and
increases further. Consequently, this effect can lead to the emergence of extensive regions
with lower temperatures on the map. To clarify, the evaluation of the cooling impact of
vegetation can be conducted through spatial aggregation [74].
The MNDWI index, akin to the NDVI, exhibits positivity solely in the region en-
compassing water bodies, thereby restricting our discourse to the positive segment of the
MNDWI. As depicted in Figure 9a, it is evident that in instances where the MNDWI index
assumes a negative value, the region under consideration is devoid of any water bodies.
As per the observations made in Figure 9b,c, an increase in the MNDWI value beyond 0 is
found to be associated with a gradual enhancement of the cooling effect of the water body.
This, in turn, leads to a reduction in the intensity of the UHI phenomenon. The findings of
the trend analysis indicate that the impact of water bodies on mitigating the UHI effect is
more immediate compared to vegetation. Specifically, the presence of water bodies in a
given area tends to result in a reduction in UHI due to the higher extent and consistency
of water bodies per unit of land area. However, it should be noted that the extent of
water bodies’ coverage is comparatively restricted in comparison to that of vegetation,
and consequently, its advantages are only accessible to a restricted population. On the
contrary, the coverage of vegetation is more extensive, and can effectively alleviate the
UHI effect, thereby conferring benefits to a greater populace. Hence, in densely populated
NDVI values are characterized by being unpopulated, underdeveloped, and having lim-
ited vegetation. Furthermore, it is observed that such areas have a positive impact on the
UHI effect. The graphical representation in Figure 8b,c reveals that regions with elevated
values primarily comprise tree and grass plantations along the thoroughfares. Residential
areas exhibit a verdant hue, albeit predominantly constituted of diminutive shrubs that
Sustainability 2023, 15, 10787 possess the limited potential for mitigating heat islands. The variance in the size of trees 16 of 20
can significantly influence the UHI effect, owing to the fact that larger trees have the po-
tential to offer greater evapotranspiration and shading effects [71]. A reduced NDVI indi-
cates that the distribution and size of vegetation are comparatively lower. This results in
urban areas cooling
a limited where impact
there isona the
scarcity of vegetation
air temperature, whichcover
can bethat is also
easily fragmented,
overshadowed the most
by the
efficacious
presenceapproach
of numerous toheat
mitigate
sourcesthe UHI
in the effect would
surrounding be to plant
environment rapidly
[72,73]. growing
The data pre- tall
treessented
[75]. in
Tree species
Figure exhibit
8 indicate varying
that capacities
vegetation for depression,
has a notable impact on shading,
mitigatingand evapotran-
the UHI
effect. This
spiration, effect in
resulting is observed to be more
distinct cooling pronounced
effects. when theof
The promotion NDVI
tree value exceeds
diversity may0.1serve as
and increases
a potential further.
strategy Consequently,
for mitigating UHI thiseffects
effect [76].
can lead to the emergence
Nonetheless, of extensive
the evaluation of these
regions
indices fallswith lowerthe
outside temperatures
purview on the map.
of this To clarify, the
investigation, as evaluation
they cannot of the
be cooling im- using
quantified
pact of vegetation can be conducted through spatial aggregation [74].
three-dimensional
Sustainability 2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW morphometric metrics. 17 of 21
The MNDWI index, akin to the NDVI, exhibits positivity solely in the region encom-
passing water bodies, thereby restricting our discourse to the positive segment of the
MNDWI. As depicted in Figure 9a, it is evident that in instances where the MNDWI index
assumes a negative value, the region under consideration is devoid of any water bodies.
As per the observations made in Figure 9b,c, an increase in the MNDWI value beyond 0
is found to be associated with a gradual enhancement of the cooling effect of the water
body. This, in turn, leads to a reduction in the intensity of the UHI phenomenon. The
findings of the trend analysis indicate that the impact of water bodies on mitigating the
UHI effect is more immediate compared to vegetation. Specifically, the presence of water
bodies in a given area tends to result in a reduction in UHI due to the higher extent and
consistency of water bodies per unit of land area. However, it should be noted that the
extent of water bodies’ coverage is comparatively restricted in comparison to that of veg-
etation, and consequently, its advantages are only accessible to a restricted population.
On the contrary, the coverage of vegetation is more extensive, and can effectively alleviate
the UHI effect, thereby conferring benefits to a greater populace. Hence, in densely pop-
ulated urban areas where there is a scarcity of vegetation cover that is also fragmented,
the most efficacious approach to mitigate the UHI effect would be to plant rapidly grow-
ing tall trees [75]. Tree species exhibit varying capacities for depression, shading, and
evapotranspiration, resulting in distinct cooling effects. The promotion of tree diversity
may serve as a potential strategy for mitigating UHI effects [76]. Nonetheless, the evalua-
tion of these indices falls outside the purview of this investigation, as they cannot be quan-
tified using
Figure three-dimensional
8. SHAP dependency plots morphometric metrics.
for NDVI with three samples’ aerial photos.
Figure 8. SHAP dependency plots for NDVI with three samples’ aerial photos.
Figure 9. SHAP dependency plots for MNDWI with three samples’ aerial photos.
Figure 9. SHAP dependency plots for MNDWI with three samples’ aerial photos.
4.2. 4.2. Implications

Implications forforUrban
UrbanPlanning
Planning and
andManagement
Management
TheThe implementation
implementation ofofgreen
greenroofs
roofsand
andwater
water features
features have
havebeen
beenextensively
extensivelyadvo-
advocated
cated as a crucial component of intelligent urban development approaches aimed at miti-
as a crucial component of intelligent urban development approaches aimed at mitigating
gating the UHI effect [77,78]. This manuscript suggests a set of urban landscape strategies
derived from experimental findings to assist urban planners in more efficiently addressing
UHI. Initially, erecting high-rise structures amidst verdant landscapes and aquatic
the UHI effect [77,78]. This manuscript suggests a set of urban landscape strategies derived
from experimental findings to assist urban planners in more efficiently addressing UHI.
Initially, erecting high-rise structures amidst verdant landscapes and aquatic environments
is a proficient tactic for alleviating the UHI effect [79]. The determination of the height
threshold for tall buildings ought to be contingent upon the factual circumstances of a
particular locality. In the city of Beijing, structures that exceed a height of 25 m, equivalent to
eight storys, may be classified as tall buildings. The vertical expansion of buildings has the
potential to alleviate the strain on finite land resources and offer additional opportunities
for the creation of green spaces. Furthermore, as demonstrated in the research outlined in
Section 4.1.2, it has been found that trees possess a greater capacity to alleviate the UHI
effect in areas with restricted green space, as compared to grass. The study suggests that it
is advisable to exercise significant control over the construction of dense, low-rise clusters
of buildings, as they have been found to exert the most potent influence on the exacerbation
of the UHI effect. It is recommended that urban planners promote the development of large,
multistory complexes as a means of addressing the UHI effect, while also maintaining
site productivity.
5. Conclusions
This paper offers a framework for measuring urban morphology, aiming to comprehen-
sively and objectively evaluate the 2D/3D spatial patterns of cities. Using this framework,
a regression analysis based on the XGBoost algorithm was performed, and the complex
relationship between urban morphology and UHI was explored in the area within the Fifth
Ring Road of Beijing on a 500 m × 500 m grid. In addition, a new interpretation method
called SHAP was applied to compare and analyze the correlation between various spatial
form indicators and seasonal UHI. The following conclusions were drawn: the daytime UHI
effect within the fifth ring road is severe, with over 90% of the area experiencing varying
degrees of UHI, particularly in summer and autumn, while the severity is relatively light in
spring and winter; the impact of spatial form indicators on UHI varies by season, with FAR
being the most correlated indicator with summer UHI and HIGH with autumn UHI, and
some indicators have a more significant impact in specific seasons, such as MNDWI having
a stronger impact on UHI in winter; the composition and structure of buildings are closely
related to UHI, and a dispersed distribution is beneficial in mitigating UHI. The cooling
effect of vegetation on UHI remains valid in the three-dimensional measurement system,
with a larger proportion of vegetation in space showing a greater cooling effect on UHI.
Based on the above research findings, we suggest that when it comes to optimizing ur-
ban spatial forms to mitigate the UHI effect in urban design and spatial planning, attention
should be paid to seasonal, spatial, and indicator-specific considerations. From a seasonal
perspective, the study shows that in the Beijing Fifth Ring area, summer and autumn are
the periods when the daytime UHI effect is particularly severe, while it is relatively mild
in spring and winter. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate strategies mainly to alleviate
the UHI effect according to different seasons. In addition, we also need to consider that
different indicators have different contributions to the urban heat environment in different
seasons. Therefore, when choosing the indicators to be adjusted for morphological opti-
mization, we should select the indicators with a larger contribution in combination with
the impact of the seasons to improve the effectiveness of the adjustment strategy.
It should be noted that this study only considered surface temperature data during
summer daytime, lacking nighttime data. Therefore, the conclusions drawn are only
applicable to daytime urban heat environment optimization. We also need further in-depth
research to explore the impact of the nighttime UHI effect on urban heat environment
optimization and to find corresponding solutions. Due to the limitations of the study scope
and data availability, there are several unexplored directions in urban morphology research
that can enhance our understanding of the UHI effect. These factors include different
vegetation types, biomass, as well as factors such as precipitation, wind direction, and
wind speed that influence the daily UHI.
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, X.G. and B.L.; methodology, B.L. and J.J.; validation, B.L.;
formal analysis, B.L.; resources, J.J.; data curation, B.L.; writing—original draft preparation, B.L.;
writing—review and editing, X.G.; supervision, J.J.; project administration, X.G. and J.J; funding
acquisition, J.J. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This research was funded by The National Key R&D Program of China, grant number
(2021YFB3900904).
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement: The data presented in this study are available on request from the
corresponding author.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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sustainability

Sustainability 2023, 15, 10787. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151410787 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

on the framework of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) [28], which is designed to

2. Materials and Methods

Table 1. Urban morphology indicators.

Type Name Description Calculation

Type Name Description Calculation

Table 2. Experimental data introduction.

Data Type Resolution Time Use

2.2. Urban Heat Island Intensity Calculation

Table 3. Background field temperature.

The calculation for Trural is as follows:

TG is the surface temperature value, Trural is the background field temperature, k is

Figure 1. The background

The background field area is shown in Figure 1.

2.3. Interpreting Machine Learning Models

2.3. Interpreting Machine Learning Models

2.3.2. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) Method

|S|!(p − |S| − 1)!

3.2. Distribution of UHII and Correlation of Multiple Indicators

Table 4. Pearson’s correlation between multi-indicator and UHII.

UHII FAR DBS HIGH SVF PD NDVI NDBI MNDWI

3.3. XGBoost Regression between Multi-Indicator and UHII

of independent variables were analyzed separately using XGBoost regression models to

Variable Group Percentage of Explained Variance of UHII

3.4. Contributions from Multi-Indicators Based on SHAP Summary Plots

3.4. Contributions from Multi-Indicators Based on SHAP Summary Plots

4.1.1. The Influence of Building in 2D/3D Space

Figure 5. SHAP dependency

Figure 7. SHAP dependency

4.1.2. The Influence of Vegetation and findings

4.2. 4.2. Implications

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