MLS Statistics 3rd Quarter
MLS Statistics 3rd Quarter
MLS Statistics 3rd Quarter
October 17, 2011 2011 THIRD QUARTER RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE SALES REPORT Westchester and Putnam Counties, New York The Westchester-Putnam real estate market enjoyed a welcome uptick in sales volume in the third quarter of 2011. Real estate firms participating in the Empire Access Multiple Listing Service reported a total of 1,944 closed transactions in Westchester in July through September, an increase of 148 transactions or 8% from the same period last year. Among the various property types in Westchester County, co-op sales posted the largest percentage increase, 18%. The 160 Putnam County transactions constituted a 13% increase. These Westchester and Putnam County closings largely resulted from market activity during the late spring and early summer months. The burst of third quarter sales still was insufficient to counterbalance the relatively weak postings of the first and second quarters. From January through September there were 4,774 closed sales in Westchester County, about 8% fewer than for the first nine months of 2010. However, the direction of the market appeared to be improving. On a seasonally adjusted basis1 the third quarter sales were running at a rate 5% ahead of the prior quarter. In Putnam County the improvement was 12%. Taking all nine months into account and projecting for the balance of the year, 2011s year-end performance could come close to 2010s and establish a mildly improving trend line from the depths of the recession in 2009.
3rd10
3rd11 Amount
110 2 47 (11) 148 13 5 18
Westchester County 1,190 1,216 1,326 235 229 231 367 255 302 106 96 85 1,898 1,796 Putnam County 159 132 27 10 186 142 1,944 145 15 160
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Change 09-10
3rd 09 3rd 10 3rd 11 Amount Percent Westchester County (133) -4.2% 2,322 3,165 3,032 538 724 629 (95) -13.1% 867 1,011 856 (155) -15.3% 248 282 257 (25) -8.9% 3,964 5,182 Putnam County 378 440 64 47 441 487 4,774 406 51 457
(408) (34) 4 (30) -7.9% -7.7% 8.5% -6.2%
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED QUARTERLY SALES, 2009 - 2011 2009 3rd 3,630 820 1,300 420 6,170 620 100 720 2009 4th 4,620 1,100 1,620 500
7,840
Property Type Single Family Condominiums Cooperatives 2-4 Family Total Single Family Condos+Co-ops Total
2010 2nd
2010 3rd
2010 4th
2011 2nd 3,780 800 1,060 370 6,010 640 100 740
%Change
2011/22011/3
Westchester County 4,700 3,660 3,720 1,210 810 820 1,850 900 1,010 440 8,200 380 5,750 320
5,870
660 140
800
650 60
710
730 70
800
The third quarter median sale price2 of a Westchester single family house was $684,005 or about 6% below last years level of $730,250 when there was a high (28%) proportion of million-dollar-plus properties in the mix. The proportion of high end sales decreased just slightly to 26% by 2011 and thus did not influence the overall third quarter median price very much. Rather, the average price of properties selling for less than $1 million decreased by 8% on average from a year ago. In 2010 the median sale price among properties selling for less than $1 million was $590,000; in 2011 that submarket median fell to $540,000. The third quarter median sale price of a Westchester condominium decreased by just 2.5%, to $337,500. For cooperative units, however, the decrease was 7%, to $166,011. It is noteworthy that single family houses and cooperatives, both posting lower prices, also posted higher sales volumes. In Putnam County there was no change from the $330,000 third quarter single family house medians posted in both 2009 and 2010. Putnam County has very few transactions in the $1 million-plus range to influence its statistics.
In response to the burst of sales this past quarter, the end-of-quarter inventory in Westchester on September 30 was slightly decreased from last year, by 3% to 7,124 units. Putnam Countys single family house inventory decreased by about the same percentage. Inventory in both counties is now a bit lower than it was in 2008 when the recession was building.
Type Of Property Single Family Houses Condominiums Cooperatives 2-4 Family Houses Single Family Houses Condos & Co-ops
MEDIAN SALE PRICE 3rd08 3rd09 710,000 395,900 187,750 471,250 375,000 282,500 630,000 362,000 170,500
Change 10-11
Percent
Westchester County
-6.3% -2.5% -7.3% 17.4% 0.0% 24.8%
399,500 298,058 350,000 Putnam County 330,000 330,000 330,000 215,000 179,500 224,000
Type Of Property Single Family Houses Condominiums Cooperatives 2-4 Family Houses Single Family Houses Condos & Co-ops
MEAN SALE PRICE 3rd08 3rd09 918,737 449,235 213,309 472,734 430,721 260,261 818,793
Change 09-10
3rd10 924,747
Percent
Westchester County
(40,338) 34,788 (13,556) 54,230 (17,377) 76,208 -4.4% 8.9% -6.5% 17.6% -4.4% 39.9%
390,413 392,582 191,609 207,865 377,566 307,565 Putnam County 367,037 396,970 228,463 191,090
Change 10-11
(27) 9 (18)
It would be fair to conclude from these sales data that lower prices stimulated much of the increase in sales volume. Low mortgage interest rates counted, too. During the late spring when consumers were applying for mortgage loans for these now-closed transactions, the average mortgage interest rate on a 30-year conventional loan was trending downward from about 5.0% in April to about 4.7% by July. The combination of lower prices and extremely low interest rates made Westchester and Putnam real estate more affordable than at any time in recent memory, thus turning some of the pent-up demand into real sales.
Another factor that bodes well for the Westchester-Putnam market is the apparent increase in sales activity in New York City. Reports from various brokerages operating in the city indicate that sales volumes in the boroughs have increased in the range of 12% 16% over last year. If that level of activity is maintained it will unblock the citys market and allow more sellers in New York City to move to the suburbs including Westchester. Unemployment remains a serious problem although Westchester is outperforming the State and New York City with an unemployment rate that has trended downwards from 7.3% in 2009 to around 6.5% today. Still, consumers are exposed to incessant reporting of the national rate, 9.1%, which contributes to a nervousness about economic conditions that in turn suppresses enthusiasm for purchasing a property. Wild swings in the stock market also add to the climate of uncertainty. Overall, however, if the country does not fall into a second recession, our regions third quarter real estate results point more to an emerging recovery than to backsliding into a moribund market..
# # # The Empire Access Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (EAMLS) is a subsidiary of the Westchester Putnam Association of Realtors, Inc. EAMLS serves more than 900 real estate offices having listings in Bronx, Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess Counties. All data tables refer to Westchester County sales unless expressly noted otherwise. The reported transactions do not include all real estate sales in the area or all sales assisted by the participating offices but they are fairly reflective of general market conditions. EAMLS does not provide data on sub-county geographic areas. Persons desiring sub-county data are invited to contact participating real estate offices in the desired areas.
Any text or data from this report may be reprinted with attribution to Empire Access Multiple Listing Service, Inc. as the source. Prior reports dating back to 1981 are available on the Realtor Associations website, www.wpar.com; click on Market Statistics. A membership directory searchable by municipality is also available on that site.
The seasonally adjusted rate is an annualized rate for a given quarter. It represents what the total sales volume would be for the whole year based on the quarters customary share of total annual sales.
2
The median sale price is the mid-point of all reported sales, i.e., half of the sales were for more than the median price and half were for less. The median is not affected by unusually low or high sale prices. The mean sale price is the arithmetic average, i.e., the sum of all sales prices divided by the number of sales. The mean does reflect the influence of sales at unusually low or high prices.