A Study On Impact of Share Repurchase (Buyback) On Stock Return
A Study On Impact of Share Repurchase (Buyback) On Stock Return
A Study On Impact of Share Repurchase (Buyback) On Stock Return
PROJECT REPORT
ON
Submitted by
“Jariwala Tapan Tarunbhai”
April 2023
DECLARATION
I, the undersigned Tapan T. Jariwala, student of MBA (2 year full-time) program at the
Department of Business & Industrial Management, Veer Narmad South Gujarat University, Surat,
hereby declare that the work reported by me in this report titled “A Study on Impact of Share
Repurchase (Buyback) on Stock Return” is original and fully an outcome of the summer
research project work carried out by me .
I also declare that the secondary sources of information have been duly acknowledged wherever
used. Further, I would like to declare that this report has not been submitted to any other university
or institute for the award of any degree or diploma.
Date:
Place: Surat
………………………
(Tapan Jariwala)
SPID: - 2021070106
MBA (Full-Time) Program
Subject: CP-403 & 404 Project Study
Department of Business and Industrial Management,
Veer Narmad South Gujarat University,
Surat
I
Department of Business & Industrial Management
Veer Narmad South Gujarat University,
Surat
CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the project study report title “A STUDY ON IMPACT OF SHARE
REPURCHASE (BUYBACK) ON STOCK RETURN” submitted by TAPAN TARUNBHAI
JARIWALA is a record of the work carried out under my guidance and supervision for the subject
“project study (cp-403 & 404)” in MBA (full-time) Sem-IV.
To the best of my knowledge, this report has not been submitted to any other university of institute
for any degree or diploma award.
II
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I am glad to express my profound sentiments of gratitude to all who rendered their valuable help
for the successful completion of this project report titled “A STUDY ON IMPACT OF SHARE
REPURCHASE (BUYBACK) ON STOCK RETURN.”
It is my great pleasure to have this opportunity to express my sense of gratitude to our head of the
department Prof (Dr.) Manish Sidhpuria It is due to his encouragement, which would not have
been completed without his help.
I would like to express my huge thanks and gratitude to Prof (Dr.) Janki Mistry for prompt
support and guidance in accomplishing this project.
I express my Gratitude to Department of Business and Industrial Management for the support and
the environment it has provided me.
My sincere gratitude goes to Veer Narmad South Gujarat University that gave me a chance to
brighten my academic qualification that provides the opportunity to have practical knowledge
about the relevant field.
TAPAN T. JARIWALA
III
EXECUTIVE SUMMERY
Firstly, I have included certain things like introduction of stock market, introduction of Share
Buyback and a brief study of impact of Share repurchase (Buyback) on stock return,
The objective behind preparing the report has been mentioned in brief and the main objective is to
study “A STUDY ON IMPACT OF SHARE REPURCHASE (BUYBACK) ON STOCK
RETURN.”
There is certain limitation of the project report like limited numbers of share buybacks (only during
the year 2018 to 2022), study is only on returns and abnormal returns of different stocks.
The report includes 5 chapters. The first chapter is introduction. It includes introduction of share
buyback, Indian stock market, NSE & BSE, Emerging scenario of share buyback in the Indian
corporate and also introduction of share buyback and its impact on Indian stock market.
The second chapter is literature review in which we show that past research in our topics which
helps us for our project.
The third chapter is Research methodology which provides information about the sample size,
sampling design, sampling unit; research instrument used problem statement, research objective,
research design, data collection methods and limitation of the study.
The fourth chapter is data analysis. In it all collected information are analyzed through MS Excel.
and all the collected information is shown through tables also made some interpretation about each
tables.
The fifth chapter is conclusion. The outcome of each data is mention under this heading and in
conclusion the overview of the study.
IV
INDEX
Page
Sr. No. Topic
No.
Declaration I
Department Certificate II
Acknowledgement III
Executive Summary IV
Chapter-1 Introduction
1.1 An Introduction to the Indian stock market 1
1.2 Emerging scenario of share buyback in the Indian corporate 3
1.3 Meaning: Relevant Law 4
1.4 Share Buy-Back: An Overview 5
1.5 Share Buyback: Positive Aspects 6
1.6 Share Buy-Back Negative Aspects 6
1.7 Which Companies Should Consider a Share Buy-Back? 7
SEBI Regulations, 1998 For Buy-Back Of Securities Latest
1.8 7
Amendments
1.9 Buyback Through Tender Offer 9
1.10 Buyback From Open Market Through Stock Exchange 11
1.11 Buyback From Open Market Through Book-Building 12
Chapter-2 Literature Review
2.1 Literature review 14
Chapter-3 Research Methodology
3.1 Definition Of Research 17
3.2 Research Problem Statement 17
3.3 Objectives of Study 17
3.4 Research Design 17
3.5 Sampling Plan 18
3.6 Type of Data 18
3.7 Sources of Data 19
3.8 Scope of The Study 19
3.9 Limitations of Study 19
Chapter-4 Data Analysis
4.1 What is event study? 20
4.2 What is t-Test? 22
4.3 t-Test Analysis of Open market Buyback offer 25
4.3.1. t-Test analysis of Share Buyback during the year 2022-23 25
4.3.2. t-Test analysis of Share Buyback during the year 2021-22 27
4.3.3. t-Test analysis of Share Buyback during the year 2020-21 28
4.3.4. t-Test analysis of Share Buyback during the year 2019-20 30
4.3.5. t-Test analysis of Share Buyback during the year 2018-19 32
4.4 t-Test Analysis of Tender offer Buyback 34
4.4.1. t-Test analysis of Share Buyback during the year 2022-23 34
4.4.2. t-Test analysis of Share Buyback during the year 2021-22 36
4.4.3. t-Test analysis of Share Buyback during the year 2020-21 38
4.4.4. t-Test analysis of Share Buyback during the year 2019-20 40
4.4.5. t-Test analysis of Share Buyback during the year 2018-19 42
4.5 Summary of data analysis 44
Chapter-5 Conclusion
5.1 Findings 45
5.2 Conclusion 46
Bibliography 47
Webography 49
Annexure 50
List of Tables
Page
Sr. No. Topic
No.
4.1 Return and abnormal return of Open market buyback (2022-23) 25
4.2 t-Test analysis of Open market buyback (2022-23) 26
4.3 Return and abnormal return of Open market buyback (2021-22) 27
4.4 t-Test analysis of Open market buyback (2021-22) 27
4.5 Return and abnormal return of Open market buyback (2020-21) 28
4.6 t-Test analysis of Open market buyback (2020-21) 29
4.7 Return and abnormal return of Open market buyback (2019-20) 30
4.8 t-Test analysis of Open market buyback (2019-20) 30
4.9 Return and abnormal return of Open market buyback (2018-19) 32
4.10 t-Test analysis of Open market buyback (2018-19) 32
4.11 Return and abnormal return of Tender offer buyback (2022-23) 34
4.12 t-Test analysis of Tender offer buyback (2022-23) 35
4.13 Return and abnormal return of Tender offer buyback (2021-22) 36
4.14 t-Test analysis of Tender offer buyback (2021-22) 37
4.15 Return and abnormal return of Tender offer buyback (2020-21) 38
4.16 t-Test analysis of Tender offer buyback (2020-21) 39
4.17 Return and abnormal return of Tender offer buyback (2019-20) 40
4.18 t-Test analysis of Tender offer buyback (2019-20) 41
4.19 Return and abnormal return of Tender offer buyback (2018-19) 42
4.19 t-Test analysis of Tender offer buyback (2018-19) 43
4.20 Summary of Data analysis 44
List of Charts
Page
Sr. No. Topic
No.
4.1 Chart of open market buyback: Year 2022-23 26
4.2 Chart of open market buyback: Year 2021-22 28
4.3 Chart of open market buyback: Year 2020-21 29
4.4 Chart of open market buyback: Year 2019-20 31
4.5 Chart of open market buyback: Year 2018-19 33
4.6 Chart of Tender offer buyback: Year 2022-23 35
4.7 Chart of Tender offer buyback: Year 2021-22 37
4.8 Chart of Tender offer buyback: Year 2020-21 39
4.9 Chart of Tender offer buyback: Year 2019-20 42
4.10 Chart of Tender offer buyback: Year 2018-19 43
A Study on The Impact of Stock Repurchase on Stock Return
1.1.1. Overview
The long-term performance of the Indian equities market has consistently outperformed that
of other asset groups. To make the most of it, all it takes is some knowledge and patience
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) are the two
stock exchanges that govern the Indian stock market. The Government of India legally
approved 22 stock exchanges under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act of 1956. These
were the regional stock markets, which also included ones in Hyderabad, Jaipur, Madras, and
other places, but most of them are no longer in use. Under SEBI's departure strategy, most of
these regional stock exchanges have been shut down in recent years.
The two stock exchanges, BSE and NSE, currently account for nearly all of the country's stock
trading activity and are the biggest and most popular stock exchanges in India. These
exchanges use digital platforms for trade. In these two exchanges, each has a unique electronic
automated trading system. These systems are among the quickest and most sophisticated in
existence
The National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) and Central Depository Services Limited
(CDSL) are two other central depositories. The shares in India are digitally recorded by these
depositories.
Depository Participants, or D.P. for short, refer to a number of the central depositories'
members. For investors to use the services of central depositories, they must create a Demat
account with one of these D.P.s.
Like bank accounts store money, your Demat account keeps digital records of your shares.
The majority of brokers, big banks, and NBFCs are D.P.s. It is the investor's choice to choose
a Depository Participant and should be followed accordingly for creating a Demat account.
However, the investors can also communicate with the central depository via this Demat
account
Before the development of central depositories, stock trading took place in person. The buyer
and seller exchanged shares using a physical share document. This previously came with
several dangers, including poor delivery, false share certificates, ripped or patched
certificates, delayed certificate delivery, etc. These dangers associated with physical
certificates were reduced with the development of digitized central depositories, such as
NSDL and later CDSL. In 1996, the NSDL was first released. On the same ideas, a second
repository called CDSL was launched later in 1999.
The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. are the
two biggest stock exchanges in India. The BSE is the oldest stock exchange in Asia and India.
It has been around since 1875, although the NSE only enabled trading in 1994. Mumbai is
home to both the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange.
The BSE eventually implemented a fully computerized digital trading system, but the NSE
was the first Indian stock exchange to employ a computerized, screen-based electronic trading
system
Both exchanges currently employ the BOLT (BSE On-Line Trading) and NEAT (National
Exchange for Automated Trading) technologies for automated digital trading.
To match and execute an order, both exchanges employ a computerized open limit order
matching mechanism. This process automatically matches all purchase orders with the
corresponding sell limit orders.
The BSE has more listed businesses than any other stock market in the world, with more than
5500. At the same time, the NSE lists roughly 2000 firms. About half of the firms listed on
the BSE do not frequently trade, making their shares relatively illiquid. About 90% of the
BSE and NSE market capitalization is made up of the top 500 listed companies.
Competitive forces with the unleashing of the liberalization policies have made corporate
restructuring as a necessity for survival and growth. Operational, financial and managerial
strategies are employed to maintain competitive edge and turnaround a sickened performance.
Financial restructuring involves either internal or external restructuring (i.e., Mergers and
Acquisitions).
In the internal restructuring an existing firm undergoes through a series of changes in terms of
composition of assets and liabilities. Section 77A, 77B and 77AA now allow companies to buy
back their shares following the recommendations of committee on corporate restructuring, which
was set up by the government to propose various strategies to strengthen the competitiveness of
the banking and finance sector, companies are now allowed to repurchase their own shares. This
will enable the companies to catch up with other developed markets as part of the government's
moves to liberalize the local market and hence emerged the concept of SHARE BUY BACK in
the Indian corporate scenario.
1.3.1. Comparative analysis of the companies act, 1956 and the companies act, 2013
✓ The 1956 Act provided that no offer of buy-back shall be made within a period of 365 days
reckoned from the date of the preceding offer of buyback. The expression ‘offer of buy-
back’ was defined as buy-back by resolution of the board of directors within the 10% limit.
The 2013 Act has changed the 365 days period to 1 year period. The period of 1 year under
the 2013 Act has to be reckoned from the date of the closure of the preceding offer of buy-
back whereas under the 1956 Act the 365 days period was to be reckoned from the date of
the preceding offer of buy-back. The 2013 Act omits the definition of the expression ‘offer
of buy-back’.
✓ The 1956 Act requires every buy-back to be completed within 12 months from the date of
passing the special resolution or the Board resolution as the case may be. The 2013 Act
replaces the 12 months’ time-limit with 1 year time-limit.
✓ Section 77A(5)(c) of the 1956 Act provided that the buy-back may be from holders of odd
lots of shares. Section 68(5) of the 2013 Act omits this provision.
✓ Penalties for violation of section 68 of the 2013 Act are lot heavier than penalties for
violation of section 77A of the 1956 Act.
✓ Requirement of transfer to Capital Redemption Reserve under section 77AA of the 1956
Act applied when buy-back was out of free reserves. Requirement under the 2013 Act
applies when buy-back is “out of free reserves or securities premium account.”
✓ The 2013 Act provides that prohibition on buy-back to continue for till 3 years after
specified default(s) remedied. Under the 1956 Act, prohibition on buy-back ceased
immediately when default ceased to subsist.
A company may decide to buy-back its shares for one of the following reasons:
➢ To return surplus cash to shareholders as an alternative to a higher dividend payment or
investing the surplus cash in existing or new operations.
➢ Adjust or change the company’s capital structure quickly, say for those companies seeking
to increase its debt/equity ratio.
➢ To increase earnings per share and net asset value per share as a possible signal to the
market place that management is of the view that the prospects of the company justify a
market price higher than that currently accorded by the market.
➢ To improve the various performance parameters like EPS,DPS, operating cash flow per
share, etc.
➢ To achieve or maintain a target capital structure.
➢ The repurchase of its own shares may conversely have a negative signaling effect as the
market place may think that the company has fewer growth opportunities after a share buy-
back, due to erosion of cash resources.
➢ Management may not seek to utilize any existing excess cash effectively by acquiring new
investments or developing profitable markets.
➢ Possible mismanagement may arise if too high a price is paid for the re-purchased shares,
to the detriment of remaining shareholders, or if cash resources are eroded to the level that
could give rise to a risk of insolvency at the expense of its creditors.
➢ If buy-back is undertaken by replacing shares with debt in cases where companies do not
have adequate funds for buy-back of shares, the proposal may misfire on the company.
➢ A return of funds by way of a share buy-back is less certain than an annual dividend stream.
A company with some of the following characteristics may find a share buy-back scheme
feasible:
➢ A company that has a high net surplus cash position may consider a share buyback.
➢ A company that has a low debt/equity ratio may go in for a share buyback for the purpose
of increasing the ratio.
➢ A company, which does not, has a high capital expenditure requirements in future may go
in for a share buyback.
➢ A company with a High dividend yield may also consider for a share buyback.
➢ The company, which is of view, that the intrinsic value of the shares of the Company is
substantially higher than the market price of the Shares of the Company may consider for
a share buy-back.
As part of SEBI's constant endeavor to align regulatory requirements with the changing market
realities as well as to enhance efficiency of the buy-back process, the following changes to buyback
of shares or other specified securities from the open market through stock exchange mechanism
have been approved:
(i) The mandatory minimum buy-back has been increased to 50% of the amount earmarked
for the buy-back, as against existing 25%, failing which amount in the escrow account
would be forfeited subject to a maximum of 2.5% of the total amount earmarked.
(ii) The maximum buy-back period has been reduced to 6 months from 12 months.
(iii) The companies shall create an escrow account towards security for performance with an
amount equivalent to at least 25% of the amount earmarked for buy-back.
(iv) The company shall not raise further capital for a period of one year from the closure of the
buy-back except in discharge of subsisting obligations as against the existing 6 months.
(v) The company shall not make another buy-back offer within a period of one year from the
date of closure of the preceding offer.
(vi) The disclosure requirements have been rationalized requiring disclosure of the shares
bought back on a cumulative basis on the website of the company and the stock exchange,
only on a daily basis instead of the current requirement of disclosure on daily, fortnightly
and monthly basis.
(vii) The companies can buy-back 15% or more of capital (paid-up capital and free reserves)
only by way of tender offer.
(viii) Procedure for buy-back of physical shares (odd-lot) has been modified which includes
creation of separate window in the trading system for tendering the shares, requirement of
PAN/Aadhaar for verification, etc.
(ix) The companies are permitted to extinguish shares bought back during the month, within
fifteen days of the succeeding month subject to the last extinguishment within seven days
of the completion of the offer.
(x) The promoters of the company shall not execute any transaction, either on-market or off-
market, during the buyback period.
1) The company should obtain approval of shareholders for buy back by a special resolution.
The explanatory statement to be annexed to the notice of the general meeting for the
purpose of passing the special resolution for buy back. The notice shall broadly contain the
following information:
• Maximum price at which the buyback would be made.
• Number of shares/securities that the company proposes to buy.
• Since the promoters are not permitted to participate in the buy back, the information
regarding their shareholding etc.,
is not required to be given.
2) File a copy of special resolution with SEBI and concerned stock exchanges where the
shares of eh company are listed within 7 days of passing such resolution.
3) File a Declaration of Solvency with SEBI in the prescribed form, duly verified by an
affidavit.
4) Nominate a compliance officer and an investor service center for compliance with the buy-
back regulations and to redress the grievances of the investors.
5) Appoint a merchant banker.
6) Make a public announcement of buy back (at least 7 days prior to commencement of buy
back). Public announcement shall also contain disclosures regarding details of brokers,
stock exchanges through which the buy-back of shares would be made and appointment of
merchant banker.
7) Copy of public announcement, along with the fees, to be filed with SEBI within 2 days of
making the announcement.
8) Buy back shall be made:
• Only on stock exchanges with electronic trading facility; and
• Only through the order matching mechanism except “all or none” order matching
system
The identity of the company as a purchaser shall appear on the electronic screen when the
order is placed.
9) The company and merchant banker to furnish the information to the stock exchange on a
daily basis regarding the shares purchased for buy back. Such information shall also be
published in a national daily.
10) The company to complete verification of acceptances within 15 days of the payout.
11) File the particulars of share certificates that are extinguished and destroyed with stock
exchanges within 7 days.
The following are the methodologies and procedures that would be required in relation to buy back
of shares by private limited companies or unlisted companies:
1) Special resolutions, explanatory statement, solvency declaration, register maintenance, etc.
should be done.
2) The company should make a Letter of Offer to the shareholders after the resolution is
passed as also file a copy of the same with the Registrar of Companies.
3) The letter of offer should be sent to the shareholders within 21 days of filing of the Return
with the Registrar of Companies.
4) The letter of offer filed with ROC should disclose the company’s pre and post buyback
debt equity ratio.
5) A minimum period of 15 days and a maximum period of 30 days should be allowed to the
shareholders for acceptance of the offer.
6) If the shares accepted under buyback by shareholders are more than the shares under offer
by the company for buy back, a proportionate number of shares only can be bought back.
7) The company should verify within 15 days of acceptance of buyback offer from the
shareholders and rejection, if any, should be conveyed within 21 days.
8) The payment should be made within 7 days of completion of acceptance of offer for buy
back by way of opening escrow account with a bank and consideration should be made in
by cash or demand draft or by pay order. In case of rejection, share certificates should be
returned to the shareholders.
9) It is provided that the letter of offer should contain true, factual and material information
and that it should not be misleading in any manner, for which the directors should accept
the responsibility.
10) The letter of offer is not permitted to be withdrawn.
11) No funding is permissible from banks/ financial institutions.
12) Within 7 days of completion of buy back, that is payment of consideration, certificates of
shares that are bought back should be extinguished/physically destroyed within 7 days.
Bens, Nagar, Skinner and Wong (2003) examined and found that executives buyback decisions
are influenced by their incentives to manage their diluted EPS, when earnings fall short of the
desired level to maintain the past growth rate of diluted EPS. They assert that EPS is an important
earnings benchmark and executives are sensitive towards its financial reporting. The application
of tobit regression resulted in positive and statistically significant coefficients on measure of
managerial incentives to repurchase when earnings fall below required level. Their findings reveal
that EPS dilution is a key consideration is managerial equity financing and payout decisions. Thus,
accounting rules have economic consequences.
Hribar et al. (2006) found the evidence of large number of accretive stock buybacks of firms'
quarterly EPS forecasts among the corporations that would have missed analysts forecasts without
the repurchase. The investor discounts the information and is greatest for buybacks that help the
firms' to meet or beat the EPS forecasts. They found clustering of accretive repurchases among
firms with small negative ex-ante (pre-repurchase) earnings forecast errors. This is consistent with
the use of stock repurchase as an earnings management device. Firms exhibit increased tendency
to engage in stock repurchases, when EPS would fall short of analysts' forecast. They exhibit and
give one potential explanation of the reason why managers use repurchases as EPS benchmarking
to avoid large share price penalty or "earning torpedo". Their findings indicate that market does
not properly push up the stock of the firm that meet or beat analysts' EPS forecast.
Voss (2012) illustrated the mechanical effect of EPS and concluded that investors ignore the actual
motive of EPS-induced repurchase and the investors are encouraging firms to continue such
practice.
Brav et al. (2005) conducted a survey from the CFOs of the U.S corporations and 76.1 % of the
respondents cited increasing EPS is an important factor affecting their shareholder buyback
decisions. Again, two different yet notable angles were expressed by executives; One school of
thought purports that buyback reduces number of outstanding shares which automatically increases
the EPS, the other set of executives opine EPS enhancement induced buyback is done only when
funds could not earn the desired cost of capital. Hence, the EPS induced buyback is intentionally
done by some executives.
Dhanani and Roberts (2009) reported similar results that the financial managers of non-
investment companies demonstrated that EPS level are of importance to investors. Almost 76%
respondents agreed that repurchase programs are used in this capacity as earnings are distributed
across a small number of shares.
Badrinath, Varaiya and Ferling (2001) conducted a study over a sample of firms and results
implied that repurchase firms are effectively bridging the gap between their EPS growth rates and
with their peers who do not buyback. They clearly accorded that the firms which got the most rev-
up for their EPS growth are those which are under-performing, under-leveraged and less-
profitable.
Weisbenner (2000) connected the form of executive compensation as potential explanation for
the growth in share repurchases. He examined that the total options and executives stock options
are contributing to dilution of EPS. He found the results that size of stock option program is a
strong predictor of the company's share repurchase activity and is more apt for higher stock returns
focusing over preventing dilution of earnings.
Dobbs and Rehm(2005) outlined that there is a fine difference in increasing the underlying value
and increasing the reported earnings with the employment if buyback. The reason is that the return
on operating income does not magnify and the P/E ratio drops ultimately, when the excess cash is
paid in the form of buyback. Nevertheless, buyback is advantageous to saving tax penalty on
excess cash. While allowing to reach the EPS targets without looking at the long-term health of
the companies, board runs the risk of promoting only short-term effects of buyback. Thus,
executives shall chalk out a significant point of difference between fundamental value
enhancement with the improvement in performance and purely accounting effect of buyback on
EPS, Then only, they can use buybacks efficiently.
Oded and Michel(2008) showed that shareholders are well off under all the policies but the EPS
is largely maximized through share buybacks. But the decision to use surplus cash for share
buyback has no effect on the overall wealth of the shareholders existing at the time zero. They
stated that in imperfect markets buybacks are beneficial in maximizing overall wealth when firms
believe one or another reasons-undervaluation r generation of excess cash given optimum mix of
assets. Repurchases are good news because the Excess cash is returned to shareholders and there
is change in mix of risky assets to total assets yielding a higher return on investments by the
company in future. They believe achieving higher EPS requires firms to maintain at least the same
level of margins as in the previous years.
In India, Mishra (2004), Gupta(2006), Raval (2012) conducted a few studies with regard to
impact of buyback over Indian companies. Almost all of them found the evidence that majority of
the companies witnessed marked increase in EPS. Our motive is to check Indian companies on
EPS parameter and find out the underlying reasons for the same.
3.5.1. Population
Population is set from which samples are drawn;
population here is taken form data available on NSE, BSE and SEBI.
Secondary Data
Announcement report
Share Price Current Market Price
of Share Buyback
An event study employs statistical methods, using time as the dependent variable and then looking
for variables that explain the duration of an event or the time until an event occurs.
If the same type of statistical analysis is used to analyze multiple events of the same type, a model
can predict how stock prices typically respond to a specific event.
Event studies that use time in this way are often employed in the insurance industry to
estimate mortality and compute life tables. In business, these types of studies may instead be
used to forecast how much time is left before a piece of equipment fails. Alternatively, they
could be used to predict how long until a company goes out of business.
The market model monitors the abnormal returns on the specific day of an event, studying the
stock's returns and comparing them to the normal or average returns. The difference is the
actual impact on the company. This technique can be used over time, analyzing consecutive
days to understand how an event affects a stock over time.
An event study can reveal greater market trends or patterns. If the same type of model is used
to analyze multiple events of the same type, it can predict how stock prices typically respond
to a specific event.
Examples:
• Impact of a takeover on the acquiring firm’s share price
• Impact of dividend announcements on a firms’ share price
• Impact of financial crisis on exchange rates
A t-test is an inferential statistic used to determine if there is a significant difference between the
means of two groups and how they are related. T-tests are used when the data sets follow a normal
distribution and have unknown variances, like the data set recorded from flipping a coin 100 times.
The t-test is a test used for hypothesis testing in statistics and uses the t-statistic, the t-distribution
values, and the degrees of freedom to determine statistical significance.
The t-test produces two values as its output: t-value and degrees of freedom. The t-value, or
t-score, is a ratio of the difference between the mean of the two sample sets and the variation
that exists within the sample sets.
The numerator value is the difference between the mean of the two sample sets. The
denominator is the variation that exists within the sample sets and is a measurement of the
dispersion or variability.
This calculated t-value is then compared against a value obtained from a critical value table
called the T-distribution table. Higher values of the t-score indicate that a large difference
exists between the two sample sets. The smaller the t-value, the more similarity exists between
the two sample sets.
This method also applies to cases where the samples are related or have matching
characteristics, like a comparative analysis involving children, parents, or siblings.
The formula for computing the t-value and degrees of freedom for a paired t-test is:
Objective:
Hypothesis:
H0: There is no significant difference between the Abnormal return & Return.
H1: There is a significant difference between the Abnormal return & Return.
Significant Level: 0.05
If p>0.05, We accept the null hypothesis
Else, We reject the null hypothesis
Abnormal
Return Return
-3.33067E-
Mean 0.114068475 17
Variance 0.007868145 0.007868145
Observations 20 20
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 38
t Stat 4.066581366
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.000115825
t Critical one-tail 1.68595446
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.000231651
t Critical two-tail 2.024394164
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
Interpretation:
As per p-value of t test is 0.00232 which is less than 5 % level of significance so we reject null
hypothesis which means that there is a significant different between pre and post share Buyback
during the year 2022-23 in open market Buyback. it means that stock returns of the companies are
increased substantially after the Buyback offer.
Abnormal
Return
(Current
Return
Date Name (Return -
price/Previous
Price - 1) Expected
Return)
11-Aug-21 Balrampur Chini Mills Limited 0.13 -0.17
26-Jul-21 Tanla Platforms Limited 0.09 -0.21
23-Jun-21 Infosys Limited 0.10 -0.20
1-Jun-21 Navneet Education Ltd. 0.23 -0.07
6-Apr-21 Insecticides (India) Limited 0.64 0.34
5-Mar-21 Jagran Prakashan Limited 0.30 0.00
1-Mar-21 Nava Bharat Ventures Ltd. 0.41 0.11
12-Feb-21 The Anup Engineering Limited 0.30 0.00
9-Feb-21 VRL Logistics Limited 0.30 0.00
3-Feb-21 Atul Limited 0.41 0.12
2-Feb-21 Freshtrop Fruits Limited 0.39 0.09
Expected
Return 0.30
Abnormal
Return Return
Mean 0.299079305 0
Variance 0.026623563 0.026624
Observations 11 11
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 20
t Stat 4.298675068
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.000174973
t Critical one-tail 1.724718243
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.000349946
t Critical two-tail 2.085963447
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
-0.20
Interpretation:
As per p-value of t test is 0.00035 which is less than 5 % level of significance so we reject null
hypothesis which means that there is a significant different between pre and post share Buyback
during the year 2021-22 in open market Buyback. it means that stock returns of the companies are
increased substantially after the Buyback offer.
Abnormal
Return
(Current
Return
Date Name (Return -
price/Previous
Price - 1) Expected
Return)
24-Dec-20 IIFL Securities Limited 0.29 -0.50
26-Nov-20 Sreeleathers Limited 0.52 -0.28
12-Nov-20 Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited 0.35 -0.45
19-Oct-20 Rane Brake Lining Ltd. 0.34 -0.46
14-Oct-20 Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited 0.35 -0.45
30-Jul-20 Fineotex Chemical Limited 0.47 -0.33
24-Jul-20 eClerx Services Limited 0.66 -0.13
1-Jun-20 Kalpataru Power Transmission Limited 0.69 -0.10
5-May-20 JK Paper Limited 0.12 -0.68
Expected
Return 0.80
t-Test: Two-Sample t-Test
Abnormal
Return Return
Mean 0.795851663 0
Variance 0.366921183 0.366921
Observations 20 20
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 38
t Stat 4.154758027
P(T<=t) one-tail 8.89684E-05
t Critical one-tail 1.68595446
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.000177937
t Critical two-tail 2.024394164
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
-1.00
-2.00
Interpretation:
As per p-value of t test is 0.000178 which is less than 5 % level of significance so we reject null
hypothesis which means that there is a significant different between pre and post share Buyback
during the year 2020-21 in open market Buyback. it means that stock returns of the companies are
increased substantially after the Buyback offer.
Abnormal
Return
(Current
Return
Date Name (Return -
price/Previous
Price - 1) Expected
Return)
16-Dec-19 JAGRAN PRAKASHAN LIMITED -0.16 -0.28
15-Nov-19 PENNAR INDUSTRIES LIMITED -0.33 -0.44
7-Aug-19 VAIBHAV GLOBAL LIMITED 1.41 1.30
13-Jun-19 Nava Bharat Ventures Limited -0.04 -0.15
23-May-19 Action Construction Equipment Limited -0.19 -0.30
1-Apr-19 Aurionpro Solutions Limited -0.14 -0.25
27-Mar-19 Orbit Exports Limited 0.29 0.18
20-Mar-19 Infosys Limited 0.12 0.00
7-Feb-19 Cyient Limited 0.14 0.03
5-Feb-19 Persistent Systems Limited 0.25 0.14
3-Jan-19 Selan Exploration Technology Ltd. -0.13 -0.24
Expected
Return 0.11
Abnormal
Return Return
Mean 0.111626724 0
Variance 0.224135788 0.22414
Observations 11 11
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 20
t Stat 0.55296026
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.293209444
t Critical one-tail 1.724718243
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.586418888
t Critical two-tail 2.085963447
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
Interpretation:
As per p-value of t test is 0.58642 which is more than 5 % level of significance so we accept null
hypothesis which means that there is no significant different between pre and post share Buyback
during the year 2019-20 in open market Buyback. it means that stock returns of the companies are
not volatile after the Buyback offer.
Abnormal
Return
(Current
Return
Date Name (Return -
price/Previous
Price - 1) Expected
Return)
14-Dec-18 Goldiam International Ltd 0.74 0.57
15-Nov-18 Oriental Cabon & Chemicals Ltd 0.21 0.03
14-Nov-18 Natco Pharma Limited -0.16 -0.34
26-Oct-18 Lakshmi Machine Works Limited 0.07 -0.11
4-Oct-18 TD Power Systems Limited 0.29 0.12
24-Sep-18 ICRA Limited -0.16 -0.33
17-Sep-18 Thyrocare Technologies Limited -0.10 -0.27
3-Aug-18 Music Broadcast Limited 0.10 -0.07
2-Jul-18 DCM Shriram Limited 0.75 0.57
28-Jun-18 Sreeleathers Limied 0.78 0.61
11-Jun-18 Mcleod Russel India Ltd. 0.21 0.04
29-May-18 Indiabulls Real Estate Limited -0.22 -0.40
31-Jan-18 BSE Limited -0.24 -0.41
Expected
Return 0.18
Abnormal
Return Return
Mean 0.1753 0
Variance 0.13964 0.13964
Observations 13 13
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 24
t Stat 1.19599
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.12169
t Critical one-tail 1.71088
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.24338
t Critical two-tail 2.0639
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
Interpretation:
As per p-value of t test is 0.2434 which is more than 5 % level of significance so we accept null
hypothesis which means that there is no significant different between pre and post share Buyback
during the year 2018-19 in open market Buyback. it means that stock returns of the companies are
not volatile after the Buyback offer.
Expected -0.04
Return
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
Interpretation:
As per p-value of t test is 0.4672 which is more than 5 % level of significance so we accept null
hypothesis which means that there is no significant different between pre and post share Buyback
during the year 2022-23 in Tender offer Buyback. it means that stock returns of the companies are
not volatile after the Buyback offer.
Expected 0.19
Return
Return Abnormal
Return
Mean 0.191685886 -5E-18
Variance 0.07909398 0.07909
Observations 32 32
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 62
t Stat 2.726329945
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.004157906
t Critical one-tail 1.669804163
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.008315811
t Critical two-tail 1.998971517
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
Interpretation:
As per p-value of t test is 0.008316 which is less than 5 % level of significance so we reject null
hypothesis which means that there is a significant different between pre and post share Buyback
during the year 2021-22 in Tender offer Buyback. it means that stock returns of the companies are
increased substantially after the Buyback offer.
Expected 0.70
Return
Return Abnormal
Return
Mean 0.69796461 0
Variance 3.23852011 3.23852
Observations 24 24
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 46
t Stat 1.34354038
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.09284379
t Critical one-tail 1.67866041
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.18568758
t Critical two-tail 2.0128956
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
-5.00
Interpretation:
As per p-value of t test is 0.1857 which is more than 5 % level of significance so we accept null
hypothesis which means that there is no significant different between pre and post share Buyback
during the year 2020-21 in Tender offer Buyback. it means that stock returns of the companies are
not volatile after the Buyback offer.
Expected -0.01
Return
Return Abnormal
Return
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
Interpretation:
As per p-value of t test is 0.89243 which is more than 5 % level of significance so we accept null
hypothesis which means that there is no significant different between pre and post share Buyback
during the year 2019-20 in Tender offer Buyback. it means that stock returns of the companies are
not volatile after the Buyback offer.
Expected 0.04
Return
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
Interpretation:
As per p-value of t test is 0.2233 which is more than 5 % level of significance so we accept null
hypothesis which means that there is no significant different between pre and post share Buyback
during the year 2018-19 in Tender offer Buyback. it means that stock returns of the companies are
not volatile after the Buyback offer.
5.1. Findings
After completing t test, I found that 6 out of 10 t test accept null hypothesis which means in that 6
study there is no impact of Share Buyback on different stock returns of Indian stock market but
there is 4 t test in which we found that there is impact of Share Buyback on different stock returns
of Indian stock market. These 4 tests are:
I. t-Test analysis of Share Buyback during the year 2022-23 (Open Market offer)
II. t-Test analysis of Share Buyback during the year 2021-22 (Open Market offer)
III. t-Test analysis of Share Buyback during the year 2020-21 (Open Market offer)
IV. t-Test analysis of Share Buyback during the year 2021-22 (Tender offer)
1. t-Test analysis of Share Buyback during the year 2022-23 (Open Market offer):
As per p-value of t test is 0.00232 which is less than 5 % level of significance so we reject null
hypothesis which means that there is a significant different between pre and post share Buyback
during the year 2022-23 in open market Buyback. it means that stock returns of the companies are
increased substantially after the Buyback offer.
2. t-Test analysis of Share Buyback during the year 2021-22 (Open Market offer):
As per p-value of t test is 0.00035 which is less than 5 % level of significance so we reject null
hypothesis which means that there is a significant different between pre and post share Buyback
during the year 2021-22 in open market Buyback. it means that stock returns of the companies are
increased substantially after the Buyback offer.
3. t-Test analysis of Share Buyback during the year 2020-21 (Open Market offer):
As per p-value of t test is 0.000178 which is less than 5 % level of significance so we reject null
hypothesis which means that there is a significant different between pre and post share Buyback
during the year 2020-21 in open market Buyback. it means that stock returns of the companies are
increased substantially after the Buyback offer.
4. t-Test analysis of Share Buyback during the year 2021-22 (Tender offer):
As per p-value of t test is 0.008316 which is less than 5 % level of significance so we reject null
hypothesis which means that there is a significant different between pre and post share Buyback
during the year 2021-22 in Tender offer Buyback. it means that stock returns of the companies are
increased substantially after the Buyback offer.
5.2. Conclusion
• From the above analysis, we can see that 3 out of 4 t test analysis in open market offer is
rejected which means there is a significant difference between the share buyback and
stock return, it means there is impact of share buyback on stock return.
• So that, in open market buyback, the impact of share buyback on stock return is more
than the tender offer buyback.
• As open market deal is done on trading hours of market, we may assume that the stock
price is more volatile because of huge quantity is traded on stock exchange.
• It can also affect the whole index (Nifty & Sensex) if the quantity or issue size is huge
provided by the company.
• We can see that only 1 out of 4 t Test analysis in Tender offer is rejected (Year 2021-22),
which means the impact of share buyback on stock return is only seen in the year 2021-
22. It means there is no difference between share buyback event and stock return in the
year 2022, 2020, 2019 & 2018.
• In tender offer, the quantity is fixed and most of the time it is buy backed by the big
financial institution. So, we may assume that the stock price is less volatile during the
market hours.
• In open market offer, most of the stock price is increase after the buyback offer as we can
see from the annexure while, most of the stock price is decreases after buy back in tender
offer.
Bibliography
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Webography
https://www.sebi.gov.in/sebiweb/home/HomeAction.do?doListing=yes&sid=3&ssid=14&smid=
116
https://www.sebi.gov.in/sebiweb/home/HomeAction.do?doListing=yes&sid=3&ssid=14&smid=
116
https://www.moneycontrol.com/
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/t-test.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sharerepurchase.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/eventstudy.asp#:~:text=An%20event%20study%20is%20
an,react%20to%20a%20given%20event.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/stocks/emami-approves-rs-186-crore-buyback-
plan-at-rs-450-a-share-10303751.html
https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/nifty-50-9.html
https://www.bseindia.com/sensex/code/16/
https://www.nseindia.com/
Annexure
List of share buyback (Tender offer) during the year 2018 to 2022
Price Price
Buyback Capital
Date Name Equity (qty) Before After
price bought back
Buyback Buyback
12/23/22 Softsol India Limited 2058524.00 170 349949080 168 153
Jagran Prakashan
12/22/22 Limited 46000000.00 75 3450000000 74 71
Technocraft Industries
12/20/22 (India) Limited 1500000.00 1000 1500000000 900 1175
12/17/22 Tips Industries Limited 126000.00 2600 327600000 1821 1732
eClerx Services
12/16/22 Limited 1714285.00 1750 2999998750 1422 1435
Triveni Turbines
12/15/22 Limited 5428571.00 350 1899999850 294 279
Kama Holdings
12/14/22 Limited 34500.00 14500 500250000 13643 12221
Triveni Engineering &
12/14/22 Industries Limited 22857142.00 350 7999999700 281 264
12/5/22 Cosmo First Limited 1009345.00 1070 1079999150 843 651
11/9/22 Orbit Exports Limited 408163.00 245 99999935 192 161
Dhanuka Agritech
11/3/22 Limited 1000000.00 850 850000000 685 733
Garware Technical
10/25/22 Fibres Limited 240000.00 3750 900000000 3574 3270
Tanla Platforms
10/17/22 Limited 1416666.00 1200 1699999200 800 737
Shyam Century Ferrous
9/21/22 Limited 10000000.00 28 280000000 24 22
9/5/22 CARE Ratings Limited 2368000.00 515 1219520000 508 673
Quick Heal
8/27/22 Technologies Limited 5000000.00 300 1500000000 216 181
8/18/22 SIS Limited 1454545.00 550 799999750 450 394
8/17/22 Suraj Limited 900000.00 77 69300000 89 143
8/12/22 Granules India Limited 6250000.00 400 2500000000 310 375
7/5/22 Birlasoft Limited 7800000.00 500 3900000000 374 263
Matrimony.com
6/27/22 Limited 652173.00 1150 749998950 820 633
5/25/22 Zydus Lifesciences Ltd 11538461.00 650 7499999650 357 481
Asahi Songwon Colors
5/23/22 Limited 240000.00 400 96000000 336 316
Motilal Oswal
Financial Services
5/20/22 Limited 1454545.00 1100 1599999500 918 666
Indiamart Intermesh
5/3/22 Ltd 160000.00 6250 1000000000 6858 4217
Sarda Energy &
4/27/22 Minerals Limited 811108.00 1500 1216662000 1305 957
4/27/22 Sinclair Hotels Limited 700000.00 143 100100000 95 130
4/4/22 GAIL (India) Limited 56985463.00 190 10827237970 101 107
3/31/22 Filatex India Limited 4250000.00 140 595000000 66 59
2/14/22 FDC Limited 2900000.00 475 1377500000 316 280
Gulf Oil Lubricants
2/14/22 India Limited 1416667.00 600 850000200 488 498
Tata Consultancy
2/14/22 Services Limited 40000000.00 4500 180000000000 3825 3502
2/10/22 K.P.R. Mill Limited 2236000.00 805 1799980000 720 566
Mayur Uniquoters
2/10/22 Limited 6250000.00 650 4062500000 563 395
1/5/22 James Warren Tea Ltd 842717.00 295 248601515 260 263
Indian Energy
2/6/19 Exchange Limited 3729729.00 185 689999865 53 55
2/5/19 Shanthi Gears Limited 5000000.00 140 700000000 127 133
2/4/19 HEG Limited 1363636.00 5500 7499998000 3661 2268
R Systems International
1/22/19 Limited 3690000.00 65 239850000 52 52
1/17/19 Just Dial Limited – 2750000.00 800 2200000000 496 658
1/15/19 NMDC Limited 102040815.00 98 9999999870 98 118
Tata Investment
1/3/19 Corporation Limited 4500000.00 1000 4500000000 880 854
List of share buyback (Open market offer) during the year 2018 to 2022
Price Price
Buyback Capital
Date Name Equity (qty) Before After
price bought back
Buyback Buyback
Navneet Education
6/1/2021 Ltd. 5000000 100 500000000 79 98
Insecticides (India)
4/6/2021 Limited 1043478 575 600000000 311 509
Jagran Prakashan
3/5/2021 Limited 19666667 60 1180000000 49 63
Nava Bharat
3/1/2021 Ventures Ltd. 15000000 100 1500000000 60 84
The Anup
2/12/2021 Engineering Limited 312500 800 250000000 615 797
VRL Logistics
2/9/2021 Limited 2000000 300 600000000 204 264
2/3/2021 Atul Limited 68966 7250 500000000 6314 8932
Freshtrop Fruits
2/2/2021 Limited 750000 90 67500000 73 102
IIFL Securities
12/24/2020 Limited 16666667 54 900000000 43 56
11/26/2020 Sreeleathers Limited 2000000 160 320000000 139 211
Hindustan
Petroleum
11/12/2020 Corporation Limited 100000000 250 25000000000 187 253
Rane Brake Lining
10/19/2020 Ltd. 266667 825 220000000 578 773
Motilal Oswal
Financial Services
10/14/2020 Limited 2307692 650 1500000000 617 832
Fineotex Chemical
7/30/2020 Limited 1100000 40 44000000 30 43
eClerx Services
7/24/2020 Limited 1990909 550 1095000000 315 524
Kalpataru Power
Transmission
6/1/2020 Limited 7272727 275 2000000000 189 320
5/5/2020 JK Paper Limited 7692308 130 1000000000 94 105
OnMobile Global
4/15/2020 Limited 19321429 28 541000000 18 37
Polyplex
4/13/2020 Corporation Limited 1154000 475 548150000 300 769
4/7/2020 Delta Corp Limited 12500000 100 1250000000 58 119
STERLITE
TECHNOLOGIES
3/27/2020 LIMITED 9666667 150 1450000000 66 158
DALMIA BHARAT
3/26/2020 LIMITED 7142857 700 5000000000 434 760
RAMKRISHNA
FORGINGS
3/26/2020 LIMITED 1600000 250 400000000 40 116
Sun Pharmaceutical
3/26/2020 Industries 40000000 425 17000000000 365 530
3/24/2020 Emami Limited 6399810 300 1919943000 204 360
GOLDIAM
INTERNATIONAL
2/17/2020 LIMITED 773073 160 123691680 29 70
1/29/2020 GHCL Limited 2400000 250 600000000 190 138
Dishman Carbogen
1/22/2020 Amcis Limited 4800000 150 720000000 67 201
JAGRAN
PRAKASHAN
12/16/2019 LIMITED 13500000 75 1012500000 48 40
PENNAR
INDUSTRIES
11/15/2019 LIMITED 8888889 45 400000000 27 18
VAIBHAV
8/7/2019 GLOBAL LIMITED 720000 1000 720000000 166 400
Nava Bharat
6/13/2019 Ventures Limited 1562500 160 250000000 92 89
Action Construction
5/23/2019 Equipment Limited 2740000 125 342500000 92 75
Aurionpro Solutions
4/1/2019 Limited 1081081 185 200000000 127 109
Orbit Exports
3/27/2019 Limited 769231 130 100000000 92 119
3/20/2019 Infosys Limited 103250000 800 82600000000 710 792
2/7/2019 Cyient Limited 2857143 700 2000000000 600 686
Persistent Systems
2/5/2019 Limited 3000000 750 2250000000 547 685
Selan Exploration
1/3/2019 Technology Ltd. 833333 300 250000000 167 146
Goldiam
12/14/2018 International Ltd 1980000 90 178200000 14 25
Oriental Cabon &
11/15/2018 Chemicals Ltd 304348 1150 350000000 955 1152
Natco Pharma
11/14/2018 Limited 2500000 1000 2500000000 702 588
Lakshmi Machine
10/26/2018 Works Limited 266667 6000 1600000000 5882 6275
TD Power Systems
10/4/2018 Limited 1171875 256 300000000 23 30
9/24/2018 ICRA Limited 224737 3800 854000000 3710 3130
Thyrocare
Technologies
9/17/2018 Limited 863014 730 630000000 611 550
Music Broadcast
8/3/2018 Limited 1480519 385 570000000 46 51
DCM Shriram
7/2/2018 Limited 5555556 450 2500000000 269 470
6/28/2018 Sreeleathers Limied 2108974 156 329000000 120 214
Mcleod Russel India
6/11/2018 Ltd. 4761905 210 1000000000 136 165
Indiabulls Real
5/29/2018 Estate Limited 26000000 240 6240000000 181 141
1/31/2018 BSE Limited 1509091 1100 1660000000 314 240