J`urglb Yelkogf

[`rlsegtesos: ^tlte-`d-Lrt klblh Celhlglg ]r`sekurlb, Alsob ]lsoeg klg

Klhplc Doso`b`fos

@bea :
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]resept`r :
kr. Orvlg Hekos`g, ^p.](C) DO^Y, DL]^Y
kr. Degty Lgffrlogy, ^p.], DL]^Y

ILFOLG ]UBH@G@B@FO
DLCUB[L^ CEK@C[EYLG UGOTEY^O[L^ LGKLBL^
Y^U] KY. H KJLHOB ]LKLGF
9=9=
 [`rlsegtesos: ^tlte-`d-Lrt klblh Celhlglg ]r`sekurlb, Alsob ]lsoeg klg
Klhplc Doso`b`fos

Listrlc
Eduso pbeurl serogf terjlko klg hegyeiliclg h`riokotls klg h`rtlbotls
ylgf togffo plkl ierilflo plsoeg. [`rlsegtesos klplt hegfurlgfo fejlbl ylgf
sofgod
sofgodocl
oclg
g klg lklgy
lklgyll perilo
periloclg
clg plkl
plkl plrlhe
plrlheter
ter doso`b`
doso`b`fos
fos terhlsu
terhlsuc
c kospge
kospgel,
l,
`blarlfl klg tokur. Cehljulg terilru, pegffugllg ubtrls`goc `bea toh pr`sekurlb
causus klplt hegogfcltclg celhlglg t`rlsegtesos. Alb ogo hehugfcogclg ugtuc
koblcuclg
koblcuclg t`rlsegtesos
t`rlsegtesos plkl ogkovoku
ogkovoku kegflg
kegflg resoc` togffo seperto plkl plsoeg
kegflg
kegflg rosoc`
rosoc` perklr
perklrlal
lalg
g ylgf
ylgf togffo
togffo,, eduso
eduso pbeurl
pbeurl ioblter
ioblterlb.
lb. Ublslg
Ublslg ogo lclg
lclg
herl
herlgf
gfcu
cuh
h cehl
cehlju
julg
lg teri
terilr
lru
u klbl
klblh
h ce
celh
lhlg
lglg
lg pr
pr`s
`sek
ekur
ur t`
t`rl
rlse
segt
gtes
esos
os,,
pegfurlgflg fejlbl setebla t`rlsegtesos klg pehlalhlg tegtlgf klslr doso`b`fos
ugtuc periloclg plsoeg.

]egklaubulg
Eduso pbeurl kokolfg`sos plkl beioa klro <,5 jutl `rlgf ko Lherocl ^eroclt
setolp tlauggyl klg koseiliclg `bea ierilflo c`gkoso hekos ylgf hegklslro.
]egyeili plbogf uhuh klro eduso pbeurl lklbla flflb jlgtugf c`gfestod koocuto
`bea ogdecso pbeurl klg ceflglslg. Lklgyl eduso pbeurl koclotclg kegfg h`rtlbotls
ylgf
ylgf togffo
togffo,, lplpug
lplpug pegyei
pegyeilig
ligyl
yl klg h`riok
h`riokotl
otlss ylgf
ylgf sofgod
sofgodocl
oclg
g terhlsuc
terhlsuc
kosp
kospge
gell kl
klg
g pe
pegu
guru
rugl
glg
g cu
culb
lbot
otls
ls aoku
aokup.
p. Hecl
Heclgo
gosh
shee yl
ylgf
gf hegk
hegklsl
lslro
ro ug
ugtu
tuc
c
hegfurlgfo fejlbl setebla t`rlsegtesos lklbla hubtodlct`rolb, tetlpo cehugfcoglg
utlhlg
utlhlgyl
yl heboil
heboiltcl
tclg
g perilo
periloclg
clg klblh
klblh heclgo
heclgoshe
she `t`t
`t`t perglp
perglplslg
lslg kegflg
kegflg
kl
klhp
hplc
lc yl
ylgf
gf beio
beioa
a ce
ceno
nobb kl
klro
ro pe
pego
gogf
gfcl
cltl
tlg
g v`
v`bu
buhe
he pl
plru
ru kl
klg
g du
dugf
gfso
so pl
plru
ru..
[`rlseg
[`rlsegtes
tesos
os klplt
klplt koblcu
koblcuclg
clg ugtuc
ugtuc kolfg`
kolfg`sto
stoc
c klg terlpeu
terlpeutoc
toc kegflg
kegflg tujulg
tujulg
hegfurlgfo fejlbl klg hehuboaclg culbotls aokup ylgf koseiliclg `bea kospgel.
C`hpboclso
C`hpboclso ylgf plbogf
plbogf uhuh klro t`rlsegtesos
t`rlsegtesos lklbla pgeuh`t`rlcs.
pgeuh`t`rlcs.
Ierilf
Ierilflo
lo togfcl
togfcltt pgeuh`
pgeuh`t`r
t`rlcs
lcs tebla
tebla koblp`
koblp`rcl
rclg
g klblh
klblh boterl
boterltur
tur (=% ->?%).
->?%).
C`hpboclso blog terhlsuc gyero, seslc glpls, ltlu relcso vls`vlflb. C`hpboclso
ylgf jlrlgf tetlpo serous lklbla perklrlalg, ekehl plru reecsplgso, klg tusuclg
`rflg ylgf toklc kosegfljl. Klblh ieierlpl tlaug terlcaor, togfclt c`hpboclso
ylgf terclot kegflg t`rlsegtesos tebla hegurug kegflg pegffugllg plgkulg U^F
, pehoboalg
pehoboalg b`clso ylgf ieglr, pegfehilgflg
pegfehilgflg toh pr`sekurlb,
pr`sekurlb, klg cetlltlg
cetlltlg ylgf
cetlt teralklp
teralklp pr`t`c`b
pr`t`c`b ugoverslb.
ugoverslb. ]egflhltlg
]egflhltlg blgfcla-blg
blgfcla-blgfcla
fcla celhlglg
celhlglg ogo
hehugfcogclg koblcuclggyl t`rlsegtesos plkl plsoeg kegflg nlcuplg ylgf beioa
buls tlgpl c`hpboclso ylgf hegogfclt, terhlsuc plsoeg kegflg rosoc` perklrlalg
klg plsoeg
plsoeg kegflg
kegflg eduso
eduso pbeurl
pbeurl ioblte
ioblterlb.
rlb. Ierocu
Ierocutt ogo lclg
lclg kotogj
kotogjlu
lu cehlju
cehljulg
lg
terilru
terilru klblh
klblh celhlg
celhlglg
lg pr`sek
pr`sekur
ur t`rlseg
t`rlsegteso
tesos,
s, hegfao
hegfaoblg
blgfcl
fclg
g fejlbl
fejlbl setebla
setebla
t`rlsegtesos klg pehlalhlg tegtlgf klslr doso`b`fos ugtuc periloclg plsoeg.

[ogklclg Celhlglg ugtuc [`rlsegtesos

[`rlsegtesos
]lgkulg U^F

Ltebectlsos, hl
hlss
ssll plru
plru,, c`gs
c`gs`b
`bok
okls
lsoo pl
plre
regc
gcoh
oh,, kl
klg
g pe
pego
gogf
gfcl
cltl
tlg
g
aehoko
aehokoldrl
ldrlfh
fhll klplt
klplt hehoboc
hehobocoo tehulg
tehulg pehero
peherocsl
csllg
lg rlko`f
rlko`frldo
rldo klg dosoc
dosoc ylgf
ylgf

serupl
serupl kegflg
kegflg eduso
eduso pbeurl
pbeurl.. Ubtrls`
Ubtrls`g`f
g`frldo
rldo teb
tebla
la teriuct
teriuctoo beioa
beioa edecto
edectodd klblh
klblh
hegfok
hegfokegto
egtodoc
doclso
lso eduso
eduso pbeurl
pbeurl klropl
klroplkl
kl rlko`f
rlko`frldo
rldo klkl
klkl klg pehero
peherocsl
csllg
lg dosoc
dosoc
glhug hlsoa alhpor slhl segsotodgyl kegflg n`hputek t`h`frlpay (N[). Jocl
koilgk
koilgkogf
ogfclg
clg kegflg
kegflg N[ t`rlcs
t`rlcs ugtuc
ugtuc ketecs
ketecsoo eduso
eduso pbeurl
pbeurl,, U^F hehoboc
hehobocoo
segsotodotls ?9% klg spesodotls ?>% . Alb ogo hegyeiliclg tersekolgyl slrlgl
p`rtlieb ugtuc hegfevlbulso plsoeg ko slhpogf tehplt tokur klg hegfaogklro
plplrlg rlkolso. Koln`g et lb hehilgkogfclg pegffugllg U^F kegflg
peherocsllg dosoc ugtuc hegegtuclg b`clso t`rlsegtesos ylgf teplt klg
hegehuclg
hegehuclg ilawl <5% b`clso ylgf kotlgklo algyl ierklslrclg
ierklslrclg peherocsllg
peherocsllg

dosoc ierlkl plkl p`soso ylgf ierp`tegso ilalyl. ^eblog otu herecl hegehuclg
ilawl pegffugllg U^F hegogfcltclg cehlhpulg ugtuc hegehuclg b`clso
pbeurl ylgf lhlg ugtuc lsporlso cetocl toklc nucup algyl kegflg peherocsllg
dosoc.
dosoc. [oklc
[oklc hegfae
hegfaerlg
rlgclg
clg ilawl
ilawl seiebu
seiebuh
h pegffu
pegffugll
gllg
g rutog
rutog U^F,
U^F, togfcl
togfcltt
c`hpbo
c`hpbocls
clsoo klro
klro t`rlseg
t`rlsegtes
tesos
os beioa
beioa togffo
togffo,, kegflg
kegflg kr
kryy tl
tlp
p, pgeuh`
pgeuh`t`r
t`rlcs
lcs klg
blserlso `rflg ylgf toklc kosegfljl beioa serogf kotehuclg.
]lgkul
]lgkulg
g seclrl
seclrlgf
gf hegkuc
hegkucugf
ugf pegffu
pegffugll
gllg
g rutog
rutog U^F relb-tohe ugtuc
okegtodoclso eduso pbeurl seblhl t`rlsegtesos. [ebla koiuctoclg senlrl c`gsosteg
ilawl pegffugllg U^F hegfurlgfo
hegfurlgfo togfclt c`hpboclso, ylotu pgeu
pgeuh`t`rlcs
h`t`rlcs klg
ceiutualg pehlslgflg naest tuie.
tuie. ^lbla sltu stuko pr`spectod cenob pertlhl ylgf
hehilgkogfclg pegffugllg U^F koilgkogfclg peherocsllg dosoc hegehuclg
ilawl U^F hegfurlgfo togfclt pgeuh`t`rlcs klro >=% hegjlko =%. ^ejlc otu,
ieierlpl pegebotolg blog tebla hegfc`gdorhlso tehulg ogo. Hetl-lglbysos ylgf
koblcuclg `bea F`rk`g et lb heherocsl togfclt pgeuh`t`rlcs setebla t`rlsegtesos
klg hegehuclg ilawl pegffugllg U^F lklbla prekoclt`r tercult tugfflb ugtuc
togfclt pgeuh`t`rlcs ylgf beioa regkla (`kks rlto` =,>3 ?5% n`gdokegne ogtervlb
=,9-=,6). ]egffugllg U^F jufl teriucto aehlt iolyl klg klplt hegfurlgfo iolyl
rlwlt oglp, hugfcog seilfolg clregl togfclt c`hpboclso ylgf beioa regkla.

]egffugllg [ecg`b`fo U^F ]`rtlieb

Kegflg cehljulg klblh
klblh tecg`b`fo,
tecg`b`fo, U^F p`rtlieb ylgf beioa cenob tebla
kocehilgfclg, seaogffl
seaogffl hukla koilwl `bea k`cter. ]erlgfclt
]erlgfclt ogo pertlhl clbo
kofuglclg
kofuglclg klblh ec`clrko
ec`clrko`frldo
`frldo tetlpo
tetlpo jufl seferl
seferl kofuglclg
kofuglclg klblh evlbulso
evlbulso
plru. Hegfogflt ucurlggyl ylgf beioa cenob, lkl cecalwltorlg ilawl U^F
p`rtlieb hugfcog hehoboco culbotls flhilr ylgf curlgf `ptohlb. ^eiula stuko
cenob hegfevlbulso pegffugllg U^F p`rtlieb ugtuc plgkulg t`rlsegtesos (g 8 >)
klg peroclrko`segtesos (g 8 ?). ^tuko ogo hegehuclg
hegehuclg ilawl U^F p`rtlieb klplt
hegfokegtodoclso eduso pbeurl senlrl hehlklo klg t`rlsegtesos klplt koblcuclg
tlgpl
tlgpl pegogf
pegogfclt
cltlg
lg rosoc`
rosoc` c`hpbo
c`hpbocls
clso.
o. ^eiula
^eiula stuko
stuko ylgf
ylgf beioa
beioa ieslr
ieslr (g 8 6>)
hegf
hegffu
fugl
glcl
clg
g U^F
U^F p`
p`rt
rtli
lieb
eb se
seil
ilfl
floo tlhi
tlhila
lalg
lg ug
ugtu
tuc
c r`
r`gt
gtfe
feg
g kl
klkl
kl kl
klbl
blh
h
hegfokegtodoclso eduso pbeurl. ]erlgfclt fegfflh hlhpu hegfokegtodoclso
hegfokegtodoclso eduso
pbeurl ylgf ieslr plkl 4>% plsoeg, seklgfclg soslgyl
s oslgyl hehoboco eduso cenob ltlu
eto`b`fo blog klro cebloglg ylgf ternltlt plkl r`gtfeg klkl. Ehplt pubua eglh
plsoeg ieralsob hegjlblgo t`rlsegtesos ylgf koplgku `bea U^F p`rtlieb tlgpl
lklgyl c`hpboclso. Culbotls flhilr ylgf sekehocolg rupl seaogffl peherocsl
kl
klpl
pltt hegf
hegfok
okeg
egto
todoc
doclso
lso en
ena`
a`fe
fego
gosot
sotls
ls ltlu
ltlu se
secl
cltt yl
ylgf
gf tokl
toklc
c se
serlf
rlflh
lh,, yl
ylgf
gf
hegu
hegugj
gjuc
uccl
clg
g pe
perk
rklrl
lrlal
alg
g ltlu
ltlu ed
edus
usoo ec
ecsu
sukl
klto
todd pl
plkl
kl 4 pl
plsoe
soeg.
g. Jlko,
Jlko, ce
ceto
tocl
cl
kookegtodoclso, U^F hehugfcogclg pegffugl toklc algyl hegfokegtodoclso b`clso
ugtu
ugtuc
c hehl
hehlsu
succ
cclg
lg jlru
jlruh
h tetl
tetlpo
po jufl
jufl hege
hegegt
gtuc
uclg
lg cl
clrl
rlct
cter
eros
osto
toc
c se
sepe
pert
rtoo
ec`feg
ec`fegoso
osotls
tls klg ceierlk
ceierlkllg
llg seclt
seclt ltlu b`cubl
b`cublso
so ylgf
ylgf klplt
klplt hehilg
hehilgtu
tu klblh
klblh
hegegtuclg eto`b`fo ylgf hegklslro. ^eblog otu, ieierlpl prlctoso hegflgjurclg
pegffugllg rutog hlg`hetro pbeurl ugtuc hehlgtlu teclglg pbeurl seblhl
t`rlsegtesos.
t`rlsegtesos. Hugnubgyl
Hugnubgyl pegffugll
pegffugllg
g hlg`heter
hlg`heter kofotlb
kofotlb fegfflh,
fegfflh, ylgf tebla
teriucto ierc`reblso iloc kegflg trlgskuser ebectr`goc, klplt hehiult pegkecltlg
ogo beioa hukla.

Hegoblo C`hpetegso ]r`sekurlb klg ]ebltoalg ^ohublso

^lltt tecg`
^ll tecg`b`f
b`foo terseko
tersekol,
l, lkl cecalw
cecalwlto
ltorlg
rlg terclo
terclott peblto
pebltoalg
alg ylgf
ylgf teplt
teplt
ugtuc U^F ogo. Klblh cekul stuko ylgf koseiutclg koltls hegfeglo pegffugllg
perlgfclt fegfflh, `perlt`r ylgf hegffuglclg U^F sukla ierpegflblhlg
klblh
klblh hegffu
hegffuglc
glclg
lg U^F klg heblcu
heblcuclg
clg t`rlseg
t`rlsegteso
tesos.
s. Ieierlp
Ieierlpll pegebo
pegebotolg
tolg
hegugjuccl
hegugjucclg
g ilawl togfclt c`hpboclso
c`hpboclso t`rlsegtesos beioa regkla iobl koblcuclg
koblcuclg
`bea `perlt`r ylgf ierpegflblhlg. ^eblog otu, seiula hetl-lglbysos hegugjucclg
cetocl t`rlsegtesos koblcuclg `bea `perlt`r ylgf beioa ierpegflblhlg hehoboco
togfclt c`hpboclso seieslr >,?% koilgkogfclg kegflg koblcuclg `bea `perlt`r
ylgf curlgf ierpegflblhlg kegflg togfclt c`hpboclso 1,5% (] 8 .=;).
^eblog peherocsllg ierublgf clbo plkl plsoeg, rejoheg pegfljlrlg ylgf
plbogf teplt ugtuc t`rlsegtesos kopertlgylclg. Erl kohlgl '' see `ge, k` `ge, telna
`ge'''' ugtuc
`ge ugtuc pebltoa
pebltoalg
lg pr`sek
pr`sekurl
urlbb ierfes
ierfeser
er ce lrla
lrla h`keb
h`keb pegflj
pegfljlrl
lrlg
g ierilso
ierilsoss
c`hpetegso ylgf beioa terstructur. ^tuko ko ioklgf clrko`b`fo hegugjucclg ilawl
ilaclg setebla bltoalg, prlctoso ilru ylgf hegffuglclg U^F p`rtlieb flflb
ugtuc tlhpob seiloc herecl ylgf tebla kobltoa senlrl d`rhlb. ^ohublso heruplclg
lblt
lblt pegk
pegkok
okoc
oclg
lg ylgf
ylgf se
sekl
klgf
gf ierc
ierceh
ehil
ilgf
gf.. ^e
^eso
so sohu
sohubl
blso
so ko t`
t`rl
rlse
segt
gtes
esos
os
hehugfcogc
hehugfcogclg
lg pegfljlrlg
pegfljlrlg sostehltos klg pegoblolg
pegoblolg cogerjl plkl sehul lspec
pr`sekur, terhlsuc cepltualg teralklp pr`t`c`b
pr`t`c`b ugoverslb, pegffugllg plgkulg
U^F,, klg pegfeb
U^F pegfeb`bl
`bllg
lg p`tegs
p`tegsoo c`hpbo
c`hpbocls
clso.
o. ^tuko
^tuko teb
tebla
la hegugj
hegugjucc
ucclg
lg ilawl
ilawl
ceterlhpoblg t`rlsegtesos klplt kotogfcltclg setebla bltoalg ylgf rutog kosertlo
ke
kegf
gflg
lg pe
peblt
bltoa
oalg
lg so
sohu
hubl
blso.
so. ^ohu
^ohubl
blso
so se
sesu
sulo
lo ug
ugtu
tuc
c sehul
sehul togf
togfcl
cltl
tlg
g pe
peser
sertl
tl
pebltoalg. [eglfl hekos klplt hegogfcltclg cogerjl herecl plkl peherocsllg
ceterlhpoblg cbogos t`rlsegtesos seieslr 6<% setebla pebltoalg sohublso. ^eblog otu,
klblh prlctoc ieslr plru, kotehuclg ilawl sohublso lwlb ylgf koc`hioglsoclg
kegflg pehiltlslg juhbla pegyekol ylgf heblcuclg t`rlsegtesos hehperiloco
togfclt pgeuh`t`rlcs klro 1,4% hegjlko <,<%.
 Ugtuc
Ugtuc hegoblo
hegoblo c`hpeteg
c`hpetegso
so U^F,
U^F, tae Ubtrls`ugk-Fuokek [a`rlnegtesos
^c
^cob
obbs
bs lg
lgk
k [lsc
[lscss Lsses
Lsseshe
hegt
gt [est
[est (UF-^
(UF-^[L[)
[L[) tebla kocehilgfc
kocehilgfclg
lg klg klplt
kofuglclg plkl h`keb
h`keb sohublso seiebuh prlctoc cbog
cbogos.
os. Lblt pegoblolg ierupl <==
p`og ylgf kovlboklso ogo hegfevlbulso pegfetlaulg pegffugl kegflg
pegf`perlsolg hesog U^F, hegfokegtodoclso `rflg utlhl, heglgklo b`clso
t`rlseg
t`rlsegteso
tesoss ylgf
ylgf teplt,
teplt, klg hegfc
hegfclrlc
lrlcter
terosls
oslsoo eduso.
eduso. Lblt
Lblt pegobl
pegoblolg
olg ogo klplt
klplt
kofugl
kofuglclg
clg senlrl
senlrl ierceb
ierceblgj
lgjutl
utlg
g ugtuc
ugtuc hegfuc
hegfucur
ur klg hegk`c
hegk`cuhe
uhegtl
gtlsoc
soclg
lg
c`hpetegso pr`sekurlb senlrl ierclbl.

]egffugllg Kldtlr ]erocsl klg Cepltualg plkl ]r`t`c`b Ugoverslb

^eblog ugtuc keh`gstrlso cehlaorlg pegffugllg U^F, seso sohublso jufl
klplt hegeclgclg pegffugllg pr`t`c`b ugoverslb ugtuc beioa hegfurlgfo togfclt
c`hpboclso
c`hpboclso klro t`rlsegtesos.
t`rlsegtesos. ]r`t`c`b ugoverslb heherbuclg
heherbuclg kltl plsoeg ylgf
ieglr, pr`sekur, klg peglgkllg b`clso sertl wlctu tugffu pr`nekurlb seferl
seieb
seiebuh
uh hehu
hehubl
bloo pr
pr`s
`sek
ekur
ur.. ^ehu
^ehull pe
petu
tufl
flss yl
ylgf
gf te
terb
rboi
oilt
lt kl
klbl
blh
h pr
pr`s
`sek
ekur
ur,,
terhlsu
terhlsuc
c perlwl
perlwltt plsoeg
plsoeg,, alrus
alrus alkor
alkor sllt togklc
togklclg
lg koblcu
koblcuclg
clg.. Kldtlr
Kldtlr perocs
perocsll
alrus
alrus kofugl
kofuglclg
clg ugtuc
ugtuc hehlsto
hehlstoclg
clg toklc
toklc lkl ebeheg
ebeheg ylgf
ylgf tertog
tertogff
fflb.
lb. Klblh
Klblh
lglbosos pegyeili utlhl klro <; t`rlsegtesos kegflg b`clso ylgf slbla, kotehuclg
ilawl ceflflblg togklclg klg toklc lklgyl pr`sekur peglgkllg b`clso
heruplclg pegyeili ceslblalg ylgf plbogf uhuh. ^ohublso clsus t`rlsegtesos
tebla
tebla kocehi
kocehilgf
lgfclg
clg ugtuc
ugtuc hehegu
heheguao
ao ceiutu
ceiutualg
alg klblh
klblh hehltu
hehltuao
ao pr`t`c
pr`t`c`b
`b
ugoverslb ugtuc hegnefla b`clso ylgf slbla ltlu pr`sekur teralklp plsoeg. Klblh
alb ogo, pesertl pebltoalg kosljoclg kegflg rlko`frld klro plsoeg ylgf slbla. Jocl
toklc
toklc terket
terketecs
ecsoo klg koblcu
koblcuclg
clg t`rlseg
t`rlsegteso
tesos,
s, klplt
klplt terjlk
terjlkoo pgeuh`
pgeuh`t`r
t`rlcs
lcs klg
c`hpbo
c`hpbocls
clsoo blog.
blog. ^ceglr
^ceglro`
o` sohubl
sohublso
so slgflt
slgflt kosucl
kosucloo ilaclg
ilaclg `bea
`bea k`cter
k`cter ylgf
ylgf
ierpegflblhlg, ylgf hegugjucclg ilawl lblt seperto ogo klplt kofuglclg klblh
prlctoc cbogos ugtuc hegoblo c`hpetegso pesertl pebltoalg klg k`cter ylgf sukla
hlplg.. Caususgyl,
hlplg Caususgyl, hegffliugfclg
hegffliugfclg pegffugllg
pegffugllg U^F kegflg
kegflg sohublso
sohublso klplt
koplstoclg
koplstoclg celhlglggy
celhlglggyl,
l, hegfogflt
hegfogflt ilawl, jocl koblcuclg
koblcuclg senlrl toklc ieglr,
hlcl eduso toklc klplt kookegtodoclso plkl sohublso.
]egfehilgflg [oh ]r`sekurlb
^tuko
^tuko ylgf
ylgf koseiu
koseiutcl
tclg
g ko ltls hegugj
hegugjucc
ucclg
lg ilawl
ilawl c`hpet
c`hpetegso
egso klblh
klblh
pegffugllg U^F klg t`rlsegtesos hegogfcltclg celhlglg klg ceieralsoblg
pr`sekur. Alb ogo klplt hegjlko lblslg ugtuc hehpertohilgfclg pehiltlslg
prlctoc ltlu supervoso t`rlsegtesos algyl ceplkl prlctoso ylgf tebla hegjlblgo
pebltoalg klg hehoboco cehlaorlg. Blylglg pr`sekur hekos tebla hehiuctoclg
cehlgjurlg klblh pebltoalg resokeg hekos klblh heblcuclg t`rlsegtesos. Klblh
stuko pern`gt`alg pr`sekur stld ruhla ylgf koilgtu blylglg pr`sekur hekos ko
sltu ogstot
ogstotuso
uso,, togfcl
togfcltt pgeuh`
pgeuh`t`r
t`rlcs
lcs >% ugtuc
ugtuc t`rlseg
t`rlsegteso
tesoss seilgk
seilgkogf
ogf kegflg
kegflg
prlctoso ierpegflblhlg. ^eblog otu, tebla kotehuclg ilawl ceterboiltlg blylglg
pr`sekur hekos klblh pr`sekur rlwlt oglp hegogfcltclg cehugfcoglg pegerlplg
het`ke prlctoc teriloc seperto pegffugllg plkl U^F.
^eblog pegfehilgflg blylglg pr`sekur hekos, hehiltlso juhbla prlctoso
ylgf
ylgf heblcu
heblcuclg
clg t`rlseg
t`rlsegteso
tesoss klplt
klplt ierhlg
ierhlgdll
dllt.
t. Klblh
Klblh ogterv
ogtervegs
egsoo peblto
pebltoalg
alg
hubtoh`klb, Kugnlg et lb hegetlpclg ilawl pehiltlslg t`rlsegtesos ko puslt
hekos lclkehoc
lclkehoc herecl hegjlko
hegjlko 5 petufls
petufls (juhbla
(juhbla t`tlb labo plru lklbla
lklbla ;;)
ylgf hlhpu
hlhpu hegugjuc
hegugjucclg
clg c`hpetegso
c`hpetegso klg hehpertlalg
hehpertlalgclg
clg cehlaorlg
cehlaorlg klplt
hegf
hegfur
urlg
lgfo
fo togf
togfcl
cltt pgeu
pgeuh`
h`t`
t`rl
rlcs
cs klro
klro 1,
1,4%
4% hegj
hegjlk
lkoo <,
<,<%
<% se
secl
clbo
bofu
fuss
hegogfcltclg juhbla t`tlb pr`sekur ylgf koblcuclg. ^uikovoso plru ogtervegso ko
ilgylc puslt cesealtlg ylgf beioa ieslr klplt hehilgtu hehdlsobotlso
pegfehilgflg toh pr`sekurlb causus.
causus.

[`rlsegtesos
[`rlsegtesos plkl ]lsoeg kegflg Yosoc` ]erklrlalg
]erklrlalg
]egklrlalg, terhlsuc aeh`ta`rlx, tebla kolhlto plkl <- >% plsoeg ylgf
hegjlbl
hegjlblgo
go t`rlseg
t`rlsegteso
tesos.
s. ^eiula
^eiula stuko teralkl
teralklp
p <?.>>?
<?.>>? togklclg
togklclg t`rlsegte
t`rlsegtesos
sos
hegu
hegugj
gjuc
uccl
clg
g il
ilaw
awll pe
pegf
gffu
fugl
gllg
lg U^F
U^F kl
klpl
pltt hegf
hegfur
urlg
lgfo
fo ce
cehu
hugf
gfco
cogl
glg
g
perklrlalg seieslr >?%. ]lsoeg ylgf korujuc ugtuc t`rlsegtesos serogfclbo
hehoboco c`gkoso c`h`riokotls ltlu hegf`gsuhso `ilt ylgf ierp`tegso hehiult
herecl ierosoc` beioa togffo
togffo hegflblho
hegflblho perklrlalg.
perklrlalg. ^eiula stuko t`rlsegtesos
t`rlsegtesos
ylgf koblcuclg plkl ><9 plsoeg kotehuclg ilawl ;9% hehoboco < ltlu beioa
dlct`r rosoc` perklrlalg. C`hote ]rlctoc ]eraohpuglg Ylko`b`fo Ogtervegso`glb
herec`hegklsoclg sultu stlgklr plkl tlaug 9=<9 ilawl ugtuc pr`sekur g`g
vlsc
vlscu
ublr
blr ylgf
lgf iere
iereso
soc
c` re
regk
gkla
la se
sepe
pert
rtoo t`
t`rl
rlse
seg
gte
teso
sos,
s, tl
tlrf
rfet
et ogterglto`glb
g`rhlbozek rlto` (OGY) alrus 29.= klg tr`hi`sot 7 5=.===/βB. [rlgsduso klrla
alrus kofugllclg ugtuc hegnlplo tlrfet ogo. ^eblog otu, kolgjurclg pegfegtolg
pegffuglllg nb`pok`freb seblhl 5 alro klg aeplrog ierlt h`becub regkla (b`w-
h`benublr-weofat aeplrog) seblhl < alro seiebuh pr`sekur. Glhug, rec`hegklso
ogo koklslrclg plkl kltl hogohlb klg ilru-ilru ogo kopertlgylclg.
]lk
]lkl tla
tlaug 9=
9=<=
<=,, Ir
Irot
otos
osa
a [a`
a`rl
rlno
nonn ^`no
^`noet
ety
y (I[
(I[^) heh
hehiero
ierocl
clg
g
rec`he
rec`hegkl
gklso
so beveb
beveb N ugtuc
ugtuc hegfao
hegfaogkl
gklro
ro t`rlseg
t`rlsegtes
tesos
os g`gurf
g`gurfegt
egt plkl
plkl plsoeg
plsoeg
kegflg OGY 7 <,5. ]ek`hlg I[^ terutlhl koklslrclg plkl < stuko `bea HnTly
klg [`y plkl tlaug <??<. ]egebotolg ogo hegugjucclg ilawl plkl 9<6 plsoeg
kegflg
kegflg c`lfu
c`lfub`p
b`plto
lto rogflg
rogflg ylgf
ylgf toklc
toklc ko`ilt
ko`iltoo (koked
(kokedogo
ogosoc
soclg
lg seilfl
seilfloo wlctu
wlctu
pr`tr`hiog (][) ltlu wlctu tr`hi`pblstog plrsolb (][[) aogffl kul clbo totoc
tegfla g`rhlb klg / ltlu juhbla tr`hi`sot 5=.===-??.=== /βB) toklc hehoboco
pegogfcltlg rosoc` perklrlalg setebla koblcuclg t`rlsegtesos. ^ejlc pek`hlg I[^
koteriotclg, lkl ieierlpl pegebotolg blog ylgf hegeboto rosoc` perklrlalg plkl
plsoeg ylgf hegjlblgo t`rlsegtesos. ]lkl tlieb < korlgfcuh stuko terilru tegtlgf
togk
togklc
lclg
lg t`
t`rl
rlseg
segte
tesos
sos pl
plkl
kl pl
plso
soeg
eg ke
kegf
gflg
lg roso
rosoc`
c` pe
perk
rklrl
lrlal
alg.
g. ^e
^eiu
iula
la stuk
stukoo
retr
retr`s
`spe
pect
ctod
od tera
teralk
lklp
lp <=64
<=64 plso
plsoeg
eg ylgf
ylgf ko
kobl
blcu
cucl
clg
g `b
`bea
ea ]l
]lte
tebb kl
klg
g J`
J`sa
saoo
hegugjucclg ilawl, hescopug plrlheter c`lfublso toklc koc`recso, toklc lkl
c`hpboclso aeh`rlfoc. Klblh pegebotolg ogo, seilfolg ieslr plsoeg kegflg OGY
lig`rhlb klg goblo tr`hi`sot regkla (<6% OGY7 9.=, 6% OGY7 9.5, ;% OGY7 >,
4% tr`h
tr`hi`
i`so
sott 25=.
25=.==
===
= /βB,
/βB, klg
klg <% tr`h
tr`hi`
i`so
sott 295.
295.==
===
= /β
/βB)
B).. ]e
]ege
gebo
boto
to
hegyoh
hegyohpub
pubclg
clg ilawl
ilawl pegobl
pegoblolg
olg c`lfub
c`lfublso
lso prl-pr
prl-pr`se
`sekur
kur toklc
toklc koperbu
koperbuclg
clg klg
lhilgf iltls alrus koaoblgfclg.
Aoii
Aoiier
ertt kl
klg
g re
recl
clgg
ggyl
yl hehi
hehilg
lgko
kogf
gfcl
clg
g 9 ce
ceb`
b`hp
hp`c
`c pl
plso
soeg
eg ke
kegf
gflg
lg
plrlheter c`lfublso prl pr`sekurlb lig`rhlb (kokedogosoclg seilflo OGY7 <,4 klg
tr`hi`sot
tr`hi`sot 25=.=== /βB). ^ltu ceb`hp`c
ceb`hp`c tebla hegerohl trlgsduso prl pr`sekurlb
pr`sekurlb
kl
klro
ro tr`h
tr`hi`
i`sot
sot ltlu
ltlu pblsh
pblshll ie
iecu
cu seflr,
seflr, se
sekl
klgf
gfcl
clg
g ce
ceb`
b`hp
hp`c
`c c`
c`gt
gtr`
r`bb tokl
toklc
c
hegerohl trlgsduso lpl pug. ^eilgylc 6=4 plsoeg toklc hegklpltclg trlgsduso,
klg toklc lkl c`hpboclso perklrlalg plkl ceb`hp`c ogo. ]lkl >=> plsoeg ylgf
hegklp
hegklplt
lt trlgsdu
trlgsduso
so seiebu
seiebuh
h t`rlseg
t`rlsegtes
tesos
os lkl ; c`hpbo
c`hpbocls
clsoo aeh`rl
aeh`rlfoc
foc plkl
plkl
ceb`hp`c
ceb`hp`c ogo. Herecl hegyohpubclg
hegyohpubclg ilawl perklrlalg
perklrlalg klro t`rlsegtesos
t`rlsegtesos jlrlgf
terjlko, t`rlsegtesos lhlg koblcuclg cetocl plrlheter c`lfublso toklc g`rhlb, klg
toklc lkl hlgdllt klro trlgsduso prl pr`sekurlb.
Klblh stuko ylgf koblcuclg `bea ]unalbsco klg reclggyl, ><9 plsoeg ylgf
hegjlblgo t`rlsegtesos kogoblo ugtuc rosoc` perklrlalg prl pr`sekurlb, terhlsuc
pegogfcltlg OGY, tr`hi`sot`pegol, flflb fogjlb, klg pegffugllg `ilt-`iltlg
ylgf terclot kegflg
kegflg rosoc` perklrlalg.
perklrlalg. Koilgkogf
Koilgkogfclg
clg kegflg
kegflg herecl
herecl ylgf toklc
hegogfcltclg rosoc` perklrlalg, toklc lkl periekllg c`hpboclso perklrlalg plkl
ceb`hp`c rosoc` ylgf beioa togffo (g8 <>=). ]lrl pegeboto hegyohpubclg ilawl
t`rlsegtesos
t`rlsegtesos klplt koblcuclg
koblcuclg kegflg
kegflg lhlg tlgpl c`recso
c`recso fllgffulg
fllgffulg c`lfublso
seiebuh koblcuclg togklclg.
Ilru-ilru
Ilru-ilru ogo, stuko n`a`rt pr`spectod
pr`spectod <9 tlaug, Lubt klg reclg-reclgg
reclg-reclggyl
yl
heblp`
heblp`rcl
rclg
g ilawl
ilawl plkl
plkl ?>9=
?>9= plsoeg
plsoeg ylgf
ylgf hegjlbl
hegjlblgo
go t`rlseg
t`rlsegteso
tesoss toklc
toklc lkl
auiugflg lgtlrl c`hpboclso perklrlalg kegflg goblo OGY, ][, klg tr`hi`sot.
Klblh
Klblh pegebo
pegebotolg
tolg ogo secotl
secotlrr 95% plsoeg
plsoeg kegflg
kegflg OGY 7<,5
7<,5 klg ;,5% kegflg
kegflg
tr`hi
tr`hi`s
`sot
ot 25=.
25=.==
===/
=/βB
βB.. Herec
Herecll hegy
hegyoh
ohpu
pubc
bclg
lg il
ilaw
awll kl
kltl
tl herec
herecll tokl
toklc
c
hegkucugf pek`hlg I[^ sllt ogo hegfeglo rosoc` perklrlalg plkl t`rlsegtesos.

^eblog
^eblog plrlhe
plrlheter
ter c`lfub
c`lfublso
lso ylgf
ylgf lig`rh
lig`rhlb,
lb, pegffu
pegffugll
gllg
g `ilt-`
`ilt-`ilt
iltlg,
lg,
caususgyl nb`pok`freb, tebla koclotclg kegflg rosoc` perklrlalg plkl plsoeg ylgf
hegjlblgo `perlso klg kolgfflp seilflo c`gtrlogkoclso teralklp pr`sekur iekla
ebectod. Glhug, pegfaegtolg nb`pok`freb senlrl kogo klplt hehoboco c`gsecuegso
ylgf dltlb seperto pegogfcltlg rosoc` tr`hi`sos stegt kegflg pegogfcltlg ogdlrc
ho`clrk klg cehltolg. Ieierlpl pegebotolg tebla hehilals celhlglg heblcuclg
t`rlseg
t`rlsegteso
tesoss plkl
plkl plsoeg
plsoeg ylgf
ylgf hehlcl
hehlcloo nb`pok
nb`pok`fr
`freb.
eb. [ofl
[ofl pubua
pubua plsoeg
plsoeg ylgf
ylgf
hehlclo nb`pok`freb tlgpl cebloglg c`lfublso bloggyl hegjlblgo t`rlsegtesosklro
pegebotolg `bea Zlbt klg reclggyl. Ceb`hp`c ogo toklc hegehuclg pr`sekur
plscl perklrlalg ylgf sofgodoclg. ^eblog otu, Hlah``k et lb hehpebljlro 95
plsoeg ylgf hehlclo nb`pok`freb ylgf hegjlblgo t`rlsegtesos ltlu pegehpltlg
naest tuie (<; Dregna). ^ltu plsoeg hehoboco aeh`t`rlcs ylgf sofgodoclg senlrl
cbogos plkl ceb`hp`c ogo. Klblh stuko terseiut ko ltls klro ><9 plsoeg ylgf
hegjlblgo t`rlsegtesos klro pegebotolg `bea ]unalbsco et lb, <5 plsoeg hegffuglclg
nb`pok`freb. [lc sltu pug klro plsoeg ogo hegflblho c`hpboclso perklrlalg plscl
pr`sekur. ^enlrl ierslhl-slhl, ieierlpl pegebotolg ogo hegugjucclg ilawl
cogerjl t`rlsegtesos hugfcog lhlg plkl plsoeg ylgf hehlclo nb`pok`freb.

Lglt`ho [`rlsegtesos : Iertujulg ugtuc ‒[rolgfbe

‒[rolgfbe `d ^ldety‘
^ldety‘
Yosoc` utlhl perklrlalg lcoilt t`rlsegtesos
t`rlsegtesos ierlslb klro blserlso lrtero
ogterc`stl p`stero`r (ONL), ylgf ierjlblg kegflg ocltlg geur`vlscublr ko lspec
og
ogde
dero`
ro`rr tu
tubl
blgf
gf of
ofll kl
klbl
blh
h lbur
lbur su
suic
ic`s
`stl
tlb.
b. ]e
]egf
gflj
ljlr
lrlg
lg pr
pr`s
`sek
ekur
urlb
lb uhuh
uhuh ko
t`rlsegtesos lklbla hehoboa b`clso ko ltls tublgf ofl ugtuc hegfaogklro tusuclg
pehiubua klrla ogo. Glhug, ONL klplt hehoboco jlbur ylgf ierbocu-bocu klg toklc
klpl
klpltt kopr
koprek
ekoc
ocso
so.. Klbl
Klblh
h st
stuk
ukoo N[ sn
snlg
lg te
tera
ralk
lklp
lp 1< pl
plso
soeg
eg,, Na`o
Na`o et lb
hegugjucclg pegogfcltlg t`rtu`sotls plkl plsoeg blgjut usol ylgf hegfurlgfo
rulgf edectod "lhlg" ugtuc tusuclg. _`geylhl klg reclggyl jufl heblcuclg
stuko N[ lgfo`frldo plkl plsoeg usol blgjut klg hegehuclg ilawl soso blterlb (?-
<= nh klro tublgf ieblclgf) hehoboco persegtlse lrel celhlglg ylgf beioa ieslr
klroplkl
klroplkl soso hekolb (5-4 nh klro tublgf ieblclgf3
ieblclgf3 6?,1% vs. 4<,9%3
4<,9%3 ] 2. ===<).
Jufl hegffuglclg N[ lgfo`frldo, Aebh klg reclg-reclggyl hegehuclg ilawl
ONL terplplr plkl jlrlc rltl-rltl >? hh klro tublgf ieblclgf. ]lkl jlrlc > nh
klro tublgf ieblclgf, tublgf rusuc supero`r algyl hebogkugfo <6% klro ONL,
tetlpo persegtlse ogo hegogfclt hegjlko ?6% plkl 4 nh klro tublgf ieblclgf. ONL
jufl klplt ieralsob kovosulboslsoclg hegffuglclg U^F plkl sllt t`rlsegtesos.
Klblh seiula pegebotolg teralklp 99 plsoeg, 6; klro 11 ONL kookegtodoclso plkl
ierilflo p`soso tublgf rusuc. ^tuko ogo jufl hegugjucclg vlroliobotls ylgf ieslr
plkl ONL ylgf tegtu sljl beioa ilgylc terecsp`s plkl p`soso
p`soso p`stero`r.
^enlrl ceseburualg, stuko ogo hegkucugf rec`hegklso ugtuc heblcuclg
tusuclg ta`rlnegtesos plkl ‒trolgfbe
‒ trolgfbe `d sldety‘,
sldety‘,