Autonomous Adaptation To Climate-Driven Change in Marine Biodiversity in A Global Marine Hotspot

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https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01186-x
BIODIVERSITY CHANGE AND HUMAN ADAPTATION
Autonomous adaptation to climate-driven change in marine

biodiversity in a global marine hotspot
Gretta T. Pecl , Emily Ogier, Sarah Jennings, Ingrid van Putten,
Christine Crawford, Hannah Fogarty, Stewart Frusher,
Alistair J. Hobday, John Keane, Emma Lee, Catriona MacLeod,
Craig Mundy, Jemina Stuart-Smith, Sean Tracey
Received: 18 June 2018 / Revised: 1 February 2019 / Accepted: 9 April 2019
Abstract While governments and natural resource 2014). Many aspects of marine ecosystems, including their
managers grapple with how to respond to climatic human components, are being profoundly impacted, and
changes, many marine-dependent individuals, historically adequate mechanisms for coping with change
organisations and user-groups in fast-changing regions of are being severely challenged. Societal responses to such
the world are already adjusting their behaviour to change have comprised both mitigation and adaptation,
accommodate these. However, we have little information with the former dominating national and international
on the nature of these autonomous adaptations that are agendas, and the latter prevailing at finer scales such as
being initiated by resource user-groups. The east coast of regional, sectoral and community levels. While both
Tasmania, Australia, is one of the world’s fastest warming responses are needed, the demand for human system
marine regions with extensive climate-driven changes in adaptation that maximizes opportunities and minimizes
biodiversity already observed. We present and compare environmental, economic and social consequences will
examples of autonomous adaptations from marine users of rapidly increase. This is, particularly under business-as-
the region to provide insights into factors that may have usual climate scenarios (Pecl et al. 2017), if the longevity
constrained or facilitated the available range of of natural marine systems and associated livelihoods is to
autonomous adaptation options and discuss potential be ensured.
interactions with governmental planned adaptations. We Human system adaptation to climate change involves
aim to support effective adaptation by identifying the suite decisions across a potentially complex multi-agent land-
of changes that marine users are making largely without scape comprising both private and public actors (Adger
government or management intervention, i.e. autonomous et al. 2005). Adaptation can be initiated by private indi-
adaptations, to better understand these and their potential viduals and be in that individual’s self-interest; however,
interactions with formal adaptation strategies. adaptation can also be initiated by governments, and in the
public interest. In the marine context, individuals, firms,
Keywords Autonomous adaptation Climate change peak bodies, environmental non-governmental organisa-
Indigenous knowledge Local knowledge tions, civil society, management agencies and governments
Marine biodiversity Species redistribution at various geographical and jurisdictional scales all make
adaptation decisions. Adaptation decisions in the context of
marine systems are influenced by, for instance, strategy,
INTRODUCTION timeline, costs and other limitations (Miller et al. 2018).
Actors differ in terms of the extent and nature of their stake
Climate-driven change in marine systems is already in the marine resource and in the way in which they will
extensive and predicted to escalate (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. experience change, as well as in terms of their capacity and
agency to act (van Putten et al. 2015). They also differ in
terms of their values, beliefs and attitudes as reflected in
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this
article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-019-01186-x) contains sup- the diverse range of processes, behaviours, activities and
plementary material, which is available to authorized users. actions implemented by these groups. Adaptation requires
Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

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not only the willingness to change, but also the practical the case of common pool marine resources). This includes
possibility to change in terms of agency, power and responses by individuals or where a community or group of
resources (Huntington et al. 2017). marine users works with others (collaboratively) (Hunt-
Adaptation actions and processes have been categorised ington et al. 2017). For autonomous adaptation to be
according to a number of different schema for a variety of effective, the right incentive, knowledge, resources and
purposes (see Table 1 in Grüneis et al. 2016). Beyond the skills are combined (Fankhauser et al. 1999).
private- public actor divide, the distinction is drawn on the To date, studies of marine adaptation in human systems
basis of their purposefulness, timing, temporal and spatial have focused on developing the frameworks and principles
scopes, form, function and performance at achieving of adaptation planning. Empirically based studies of
intended objectives (Malik et al. 2010). A distinction is implemented adaptation actions, the evaluation of the
also often drawn on the basis of the extent of an actor’s outcomes of these actions (Bradley et al. 2015; Miller et al.
intent to adapt, with some actions arising spontaneously 2018), and how the actions of government and non-gov-
and without conscious deliberation, in response to the ernment actors might connect, are scarce. Where sector- or
manifestations of climate change in natural and human region-wide adaptation planning has progressed, this has
systems. At the other end of the spectrum of intent to adapt been largely done without reference to an understanding of
(Fankhauser et al. 1999) lies planned adaptation which is the non-government adaptation landscape (Cinner et al.
the result of a coordinated decision, based on an awareness 2011; Jennings et al. 2016; Miller et al. 2018), which often
that conditions have changed, or are about to change, and progresses ahead of the generally more deliberative and
that action is required to return to, to maintain or to achieve proactive adaptations characteristic of government agen-
a desired state (Smith et al. 2000). cies (Nayak 2017). In the absence of explicit mechanisms
The marine domain poses special challenges for to ensure, for instance, adaptive management, individuals,
unravelling the nature of human system adaptation (Miller organisations and communities may have greater flexibility
et al. 2018). The fingerprint of climate change in marine to adjust their behaviour more readily to accommodate
systems is complex, with changes in sea temperatures and changes evident in the natural ecosystems they depend on
acidity, sea levels and currents acting individually and in (Ojea et al. 2017; Huntington et al. 2017). Moreover,
combination to produce highly uncertain conditions that although there is a burgeoning literature on climate change
impact the operations and performance of all actors (Pecl related adaptation, little attention has been paid to identi-
et al. 2014a, 2017). Problems associated with potentially fying the best mix of adaptation responses in the design of
countervailing adaptation responses, and the conflicts they adaptation strategies at various scales (Tompkins and
may fuel, are magnified by the large number of non-gov- Eakin 2012). Meeting this challenge involves understand-
ernment actors who derive benefit from marine resources, ing the extent to which different adaptation actions may
and who also often hold different values. The pivotal role impede or enhance the effectiveness or possibilities of
of government actors in marine management and gover- other actions, and the manner in which individual actions
nance is also notable. The increasing role of co-manage- act to complement or substitute for one another or produce
ment processes and models of participatory governance in co-benefits (or costs) for other actors or groups.
key marine sectors, such as fisheries, have ostensibly Here, we aim to identify, collate and analyse the suite of
served to increase the agency and adaptive capacity of changes that marine users are initiating in response to cli-
recognised marine users (Ogier et al. 2016; Nursey-Bray mate-driven changes in biodiversity, without direct or
et al. 2018). However, as a number of theorists have noted leading government or management interventions, i.e. user-
(Berkes 2009; Pinkerton 2011, 2018), the power geome- based autonomous adaptations. We use the east coast of
tries between government and non-government actors Tasmania, Australia, as an illustrative case as it is one of
remain problematic as these mechanisms (usually applied the world’s fastest warming marine areas (Hobday and Pecl
only symbolically or technically between government and 2014) with climate-driven changes already observed in the
non-government industry actors) have largely failed to distribution, abundance, and productivity of marine
substantively re-structure power relations. This can have resources, as well as substantial climate-driven changes in
the unintended consequence of further marginalisation of critical marine habitats (Last et al. 2011; Ramos et al.
non-government actors in some cases (e.g. Indigenous 2015). There has been considerable investment in research
fishers); effects which could have direct implications for to underpin marine adaptation in the broader region
the possibility of user-based autonomous adaptation. (Creighton et al. 2016), and the east coast of Tasmania has
We define autonomous adaptation as adaptation actions been specifically acknowledged as a region with the
that were initiated by non-government actors, rather than potential for study of human system adaptation (Frusher
those with direct powers over the planned management of et al. 2014). The east coast of Tasmania also supports a
the changing resources themselves (i.e. the government in wide range of marine resource uses and interests, including

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production of high value seafood by commercial fishers cases of user intent but uncompleted action, were selected
and aquaculture sectors (ABARES 2016), Tasmanian as the aim of the study was to explore the characteristics of
Aboriginal peoples cultural connections to sea country a range of user-based adaptation behaviours and the
(Lee 2017), and high levels of participation in recreational potential interactions with formal, planned adaptation on
fishing, with nearly 30% of the population participating that which Nelson et al. (2009) describe as the ‘‘adaptation
annually (Lyle et al. 2014). dynamic’’. For this reason also, the sample of cases
We describe the changing resource conditions and local- selected was not intended to be necessarily representative
level adaptation actions of seven diverse groups of marine or complete but to explore the range of behaviours by a
resource users in the region. Applying Ostrom’s social- diversity of users with varying levels of agency in relation
ecological systems framework (2009), we organise our to the governance of the marine resources at stake (Yin
analysis of autonomous adaption actions by marine 2014).
resource users, rather than ethnic or social units or com- We then examined the following characteristics of the
munities, in order to specifically examine the potential selected examples in order to generate insights into how
interactions of any user-based autonomous adaptation different users are responding to climate-driven changes
actions with planned or government-led adaptation strate- and the implications for governance:
gies for marine resource uses. Identified adaptation actions
• What forms of adaptation actions are being undertaken
by resource user groups are then mapped to an existing
by users (i.e. non-government sector actors) in response
adaptation action typology, and the outcomes of actions
to high levels of ecological change in marine systems?
further categorised using the conceptual framework for
• Who are the primary actors?
assessing vulnerability to climate change in climate-sen-
• What level of access do users have to formal power
sitive social-ecological systems developed by Marshall
over marine resources?
et al. (2010). The relationship of these autonomous adap-
• What other key assets do users have to enable
tation actions to the existing governance system settings is
adaptation actions?
discussed, providing an important step towards a compre-
• What is the geographic scale of these behaviours and
hensive understanding of the potential mix of adaptation
expected outcomes? How dependent is the adaptation
responses, and the level of agency and power relations that
action on government cooperation?
may need to be further explored and considered in the
• What are the expected outcomes of the adaptation
overall design of adaptation strategies. After describing the
behaviour for levels of ecological vulnerability of the
approach in more detail below, we provide a synthesis of
marine socioecological system and socioeconomic
these climate-driven changes in biodiversity, including
vulnerability of affected marine users? What type of
how such changes have been observed by marine system
benefit is generated?
users, before progressing to the adaptation actions
• How may the observed adaptation behaviours poten-
documented.
tially interact with planned government efforts and
what are the implications for further adaptation
planning?
APPROACH
The adaptation behaviours identified for each type of
We undertook synthesis of existing data from multiple marine resource user were categorised using an existing
sources which drew on varying knowledge systems and typology of forms of adaption behaviours derived from a
applied established analytical frameworks to examine the synthesis of theoretical frameworks and tested using
kinds of local-level autonomous adaptation behaviours the empirical studies by Biagini et al. (2014). The typology
selected cases of marine resource users are undertaking on was selected because it explicitly accounts for adaptation
the east coast region of Tasmania, south-eastern Australia. behaviours by non-government actors (Tompkins and
Our approach was designed to identify and examine char- Eakin 2012).
acteristics of autonomous adaptation in marine socioeco- Levels of agency of resource users as primary actors or
logical systems to inform further in-depth structured and ‘‘initiators’’ in these cases is a critical factor. This is
systematic analysis. attested to by the work of various theorists such as Taylor
Examples of user-based adaptation behaviours were (2014) and Nasiritousi et al. (2014) who have highlighted
selected on the basis of our collective domain expertise and the relational basis of vulnerability, and therefore of
experience in relation to changes in the actions of users of adaptive capacity of non-government actors, which
the marine systems in the case study region (see Hunt- requires an explicit focus on ‘‘how people seek to gain
ington et al. 2017 for a similar approach). Cases of realised access to and control over changing resources’’ (Nightin-
autonomous adaption actions (i.e. behaviours), rather than gale 2017). In order to understand the level of agency held

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by resource users responding to change, both the relation- waters south along the east coast of Australia (Ridgway
ship to power and the capacity to act need to be examined 2007), and by the cooler eastward-flowing Leeuwin Cur-
in order to understand the context within which adaptive rent extension, which can extend to the east coast of Tas-
responses occur (Adger 2003). In their study of small mania (Ridgway and Condie 2004). The extension of the
communities responding to environmental change, Hunt- EAC over recent decades to the east coast of Tasmania has
ington et al. (2017) examined a range of forms of com- seen the region become one of fastest warming marine
munity capitals (per Emery and Flora 2006) in order to regions globally (Hobday and Pecl 2014) and has been
understand the conditions within which communities had associated with major southward range extensions in the
sufficient agency to enable action. In our case study region, distributions for almost 100 species (Last et al. 2011;
living marine resources are owned by the state (Kailis Sunday et al. 2015).
2013) and, as such, the level of agency held by resource While long-term change has been a focus in the physical
users is inevitably relational to the institutional power of and biological studies in the region, extreme events have
the state. For each example, we determined the level of attracted more attention in recent years, including marine
access of marine resource users to formal power (i.e. as heatwaves (Hobday et al. 2016a). For example, the 2015
typically held by government processes and actors) over Tasman Sea marine heatwave was the longest and most
resource conditions, as well as the level of dependence of intense marine heatwave ever recorded, lasting 251 days
the adaptation action on government cooperation, using a and reached a maximum intensity of 2.9 C above clima-
synthesis of approaches to analyse power relations applied tological values (Oliver et al. 2017a, b). The marine heat-
by Sova et al. (2014) and Stöhr et al. (2014). wave was associated with a number of nearshore ecosystem
Non-government actors ranged from individual recre- events including new disease outbreaks in farmed shellfish,
ational users through to multinational aquaculture firms; mortality of wild abalone, and records of species normally
therefore, the key capitals or assets available to these users associated with warmer ocean conditions. Extreme marine
were also examined. We drew on the approach used by heatwave events are projected to increase in this region as
both Badjeck et al. (2010) and Huntington et al. (2017) to climate change continues (Oliver et al. 2017a, b).
understand what key assets actors have available to
mobilize to enable adaptive behaviours. Biological changes observed in the system
We applied the conceptual framework for assessing
vulnerability to climate change in climate-sensitive social- Biological changes at all trophic levels have been observed
ecological systems developed by Marshall et al. (2010). in the east coast waters of Tasmania, that have either been
This framework offers a modified iteration of the Expo- attributed to climate change, or are entirely consistent with
sure-Sensitivity-Adaptive Capacity vulnerability assess- expectations under climate change (Fig. 1 and see Frusher
ment framework (IPCC 2007) in response to a number of et al. 2014). These responses include changes in abun-
identified limitations of the IPPC’s framework in relation dance, distribution, recruitment, and physiology of key
to socioeconomic scales of concern and determinants commercial and recreational fishery (Pecl et al. 2014a) and
(Hahn et al. 2009). We use this framework to analyse and key aquaculture species (Doubleday et al. 2013). In addi-
compare potential outcomes for ecological and socioeco- tion, major impacts have also resulted from increases in the
nomic vulnerability for the observed adaptation beha- timing and duration of harmful algal blooms (HABs, e.g.
viours. In addition, we examined the extent to which the Noctiluca scintillans and Gymnodinium catenatum, Halle-
observed adaptation behaviours were likely to interact with graeff et al. 2008), and the occurrence of new strains (e.g.
(that is, were synergistic with or countervailing to) formal, Alexandrium tamarense) and species (e.g. Pacific Oyster
planned adaptation strategies led by government actors, Mortality Syndrome (POMS)).
and whether there were implications of this interaction for Changes in productivity on the east coast of Tasmania
future pathways for transformative adaptation (Wise et al. are linked to a * 50% decline in the biomass of the spring
2014). bloom, associated with a shift in relative abundance of cold
water diatoms to warm water dinoflagellates (Thompson
et al. 2009). Warming waters have also resulted in a shift in
CONTEXT AND BACKGROUND the southern range of many species (Pitt et al. 2010;
Johnson et al. 2011; Last et al. 2011; Couturier et al. 2015;
Physical environment Robinson et al. 2015; Kelly et al. 2016; Stuart-Smith et al.
2016; Ramos et al. 2018), which is leading to the estab-
Waters off the east coast of Tasmania are influenced by the lishment and persistence of species in ‘‘new’’ areas of the
southward extension of the warm East Australian Current Tasmanian coast. Reports by divers and recreational fishers
(EAC), which carries warm and nutrient poor tropical to a local citizen science project of ‘‘out-of-range’’

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Fig. 1 Schematic illustrating the key changes in biodiversity on the east coast of Tasmania that are either considered climate-driven changes or
are consistent with changes expected under climate change. Although the figure is split into ‘‘pre-warming’’ and ‘‘warming’’ these changes have
obviously occurred over time, and some changes are starker than others. All changes depicted are referenced in the main text
observations of a wide variety of species are frequent potentially linked to climate change, but which are cur-
(Table S1). Habitat changes have also resulted from rently uncertain (15%) and would involve more detailed
warming waters, including a decline in giant kelp (Wahl research to confirm.
et al. 2015), and an increased prevalence of urchin barrens
(Ling et al. 2009). Collectively, the arrival of new species,
the reduction in availability of preferred species, and COMMUNITY UNDERSTANDING
changes in environmental conditions, have altered risks and AND PERCEPTIONS OF THESE CHANGES
opportunities for local marine industries (van Putten et al.
2015; Champion et al. 2018). Some of these changes are At a fundamental level, autonomous responses to change
already affecting Tasmanian livelihoods, such as the bar- depend on people’s awareness that changes are indeed
rens forming sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii (Ling occurring. Barriers to awareness about climate change are
2008), and POMS (de Kantzow et al. 2017). likely to also be barriers to action (Hodgkinson et al. 2014),
Combining industry observations with scientific data and communication plays a crucial role in growing
and analyses gives a more complete understanding of awareness. Observation of change and awareness are
current changes in the fisheries and broader environment. intricately linked and are partly a function of direct expo-
In a workshop format held in 2012, we asked 40 fishery sure to climate change and the type of experiences people
managers, industry representatives (commercial and have with the changing marine environment (Keller and
recreational) and researchers from our region for observa- McInerney 2008). For instance, divers may observe change
tions, possibility related to climate, that were either specific directly underwater, while fishers may observe change in a
to their operations and fishery or the ecosystem in general more indirect manner through variations in catch, bycatch,
(for full details see Pecl et al. 2014b, Table S2). Of the 23 or even fish prices. Direct and indirect observation of
observations reported, 35% were observations not familiar change can influence people’s perception of risk and
to researchers, indicating the potential benefit of fisher’s influence their adaptive behaviours (Weber 2010; Weber
knowledge expanding scientific knowledge. While the and Stern 2011). However, people’s perceptions of envi-
majority of observations (70%) could be linked to climate ronmental change are socially constructed (Taylor 2014),
change or variability, fishers also reported observations and their direct and indirect observations are influenced by

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cognitive processes, including ingrained mental models, oral histories. Climate change is endemic to Indigenous
scientific complexities, and positive or negative dissonance Australian communities, as much as the localised responses
(van Putten et al. 2015) that underpin the formation of over time to maintain sustainability in conservation stew-
beliefs about the cause of observed change (Mccright and ardship (Wali et al. 2017). For Indigenous Australians,
Dunlap 2011; Whitmarsh 2011). These cognitive processes many of the implications of climate-driven changes in
help explain people’s rejection or acceptance of attributing biodiversity cannot be adapted to, including cultural loss of
observed marine environmental change to climate change governance and connections to sea country (see Box 1).
(van Putten et al. 2015) and may ultimately influence their
autonomous adaptive behaviour.
Many fishers are keen observers of the marine envi- INDUSTRY AND COMMUNITY RESPONSES
ronment and develop functionally oriented knowledge of TO CLIMATE-DRIVEN CHANGES
marine ecosystems (McGoodwin 2001; Gledhill et al. IN BIODIVERSITY
2015). However, perception and acceptance of the science
of climate change by fishers are intricately linked to their Recreational fishing
ability to untangle the many interacting factors that affect
fishery performance, including overfishing, management- Extensions in the distributional range of fish and inverte-
driven change, market demands (size, season), natural brate species from mainland Australia, across the Bass
fluctuations in population dynamics, inter-annual variation Strait, and into the waters adjacent to Tasmania are well
in biophysical environment, interactions with other species, documented (Johnson et al. 2011; Last et al. 2011;
habitat loss and finally climate change (Taylor 2014; Robinson et al. 2015; Stuart-Smith et al. 2016). Several of
Metcalf et al. 2015). For abalone fishers for example, our these species are particularly popular amongst recreational
collective understanding is that two recent catastrophic fishers from the southeast region of mainland Australia,
heatwave events—events never seen before by multi-gen- including pink snapper (Chrysophrys auratus), yellowtail
eration fishers—were the trigger for awareness of the kingfish (Seriola lalandi), and King George whiting (Sil-
potential for climate change to affect their livelihoods, and laginodes punctata) and as such provide new recreational
the associated need to consider operational changes in the fishing opportunities for fishers in Tasmania (Robinson
fishery, where there is capacity to make such change. Prior et al. 2015). Anecdotally, there are reports of snapper and
to the extreme heatwaves, in the rock lobster fishery at yellowtail kingfish being encountered over several decades
least, acceptance of climate change was very low despite in Tasmania, mostly along the north and northeast coasts;
lobster fisher’s observations of changes in the marine however, the frequency of encounters of recreational fish-
environment being almost entirely consistent with climate ers with these species is increasing as is the geographic
change (Nursey-Bray et al. 2012). Research since then extent of the encounters (Robinson et al. 2015; Stuart-
shows that there has been a significant improvement in Smith et al. 2016; Champion et al. 2018).
marine user knowledge of marine processes, particularly The increasing availability of kingfish has led to several
changes in species distributions as a result of warming social media pages and forums dedicated to targeting the
waters (Bannon 2016; Oliver et al. 2017a, b). The citizen species in Tasmanian waters. The information gained from
science project Redmap (Range Extension Database and these forums, on methods to effectively target the fish, as
Mapping project, www.redmap.org.au and see Table S1) well as real time information on where and when they can
has likely had an influence on marine users in Tasmania’s be caught, has undoubtedly increased fisher interactions.
understanding and attributions of change, and possibly As an example, a seasonal abundance of kingfish in the
increased their trust in the regional climate science (Ban- vicinity of the Tasman Peninsula in 2016 led to several
non 2016; Nursey-Bray et al. 2018), illustrating the charter operators advertising kingfish charters for the first
importance and potential value of trusted information as time. In stark contrast, the fishers who have been successful
potential conduits for autonomous adaptation. in capturing snapper in the southern waters of Tasmania
For Indigenous Australians, local observations are tend to keep the information about where and when the fish
transmitted generationally through oral and artistic are being caught very quiet. Discussions with the fishers
endeavours, in means described by Caillon et al. (2017) as revealed concerns that if the information is shared the
vertically, horizontally and obliquely kinship-linked increased effort could have a significant effect on the fish
knowledges. The reliance on kinship as a tool to encode that are present, with several of the fishers noting that the
and share knowledges (Lee and Tran 2016) is demonstrated people currently catching snapper generally practice catch
through Nunn and Reid’s (2016) finding that across 21 and release. This highlights an interesting quandary for
diverse Australian coastlines knowledges of sea level rises fisheries managers, given that there are significant knowl-
dating back 7000–13 000 years have been retained through edge gaps as to whether the fish are resident or migratory

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Box 1: Implications for indigenous peoples—not all impacts can be adapted to
Dr Aunty Patsy Cameron is worried that sea country traditional knowledges of tebrakunna country, now known as Cape Portland, north-
east Tasmania, are being washed away with every new and rising tide, estimating that the coastline has receded some 15 metres. The loss
of living midden sites that are thousands of years old (Lourandos 1968) are ‘‘now ancient insights lost under the oceans’’ (Aunty Patsy
Cameron pers. comm. 22/07/17) and has massive implications on the transmission of Indigenous knowledges (Mustonen and Mustonen
2011). For example, the remains of the yolla or muttonbird (short tailed shearwater), a coastal nesting bird, found in living middens are an
aid in the passing on and teaching of tebrakunna deep histories and knowledges. Yet Aunty Patsy is worried if the yolla will continue to
nest, be a food source for families and nurture our cultures as their habitat is reduced. This destruction of heritage is paired with the
depletion of kelp and seaweed beds that are home to the maireener shell and shell necklaces, an iconic shell and ‘potent signifier’ (Norman
2013) of tebrakunna and other women and their caring for sea country. Where the maireener rainbow kelp shells are depleted in rapid
numbers, women feel the cultural loss of governance and connections to sea country (see Lee 2017). While extant rights for Tasmanian
Aboriginal peoples to gather and use marine resources under the Living Marine Resources Management Act 1995 creates the spaces, for
example, of autonomy and adaptation for women of tebrakunna country to shift the shell types in necklace-making, there is a distinct lack
of collaboration with scientists and others to record, implement and build on traditional knowledges in research (Huntington et al. 2017).
Aunty Patsy laments ‘‘where is science to help look at our health and wellbeing of the precious resources of sea country?’’ and highlights
the restriction of Indigenous agency to care for sea country without the combination of traditional knowledge and modern science.
and whether their growth and maturity schedules are sim- one of Tasmania’s most popular dive sites, providing easy
ilar to fish found in the warmer waters of the mainland. shore access to giant kelp (Macrocystis) forests (Johnson
This creates challenges in terms of developing effective et al. 2011). Dive clubs would each run multiple dive
size and individual catch limits, which are traditionally the events to the bay every year, often including overnight
methods used for management of recreational species. stays at the adjacent campgrounds. The climate-related loss
of giant kelp from the Fortescue Bay, coupled with sub-
SCUBA diving clubs sequent increases in urchin barrens (Ling 2008; Ling and
Jacques 2009), has greatly reduced recreational diving in
The effects of climate change on recreational SCUBA the area. For example, the state’s largest dive club, the
diving can be traced through shifts in dive locations and Tasmanian University Dive Club, which once facilitated
increased participation of club members in environmental regular dives to Fortescue Bay has not dived the area in
activities. Fortescue Bay in south-east Tasmania was once 5 years. The remaining kelp forests further south in the

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state are now only accessible by boat, making dives to has in other zones (Mundy and McAllister 2018). The
them more infrequent and expensive. Climate change, in Eastern zone has experienced significant habitat change
particular, the increasing abundance and range extension of linked to climate shifts (loss of giant kelp and increased
the destructive long spined sea urchin (Ling and Jacques urchin barrens (Ling et al. 2009; Wahl et al. 2015), two
2009), C. rodgersii, has also resulted in recreational dive significant marine heatwave events (2009/2010 and
clubs becoming increasingly involved in environmental 2015/2016 Oliver et al. 2017a, b), and a 1 in 100 year storm
activities. Seven Tasmanian dive clubs were involved in in 2016. The timing of these events also coincides with low
the ‘‘Subtidal Reef Monitoring and Community Awareness points in performance of the fishery over the last 17 years
Project’’ that aimed to monitor and describe impacts of (Mundy and Jones 2017).
increasing urchin densities and associated barrens (Ling Awareness of the sensitivity of H. rubra to temperature
and Jacques 2009). Climate change topics (e.g. Redmap (Moltschaniwskyj et al. 2014) has led to operational
Australia project, urchin distribution, impacts and man- changes in the fishery, including changes to the way aba-
agement) feature regularly in presentations at the annual lone are held and handled during transport, reluctance by
Tasmanian Combined Dive Clubs Weekend. many divers and processors to fish when forecast air tem-
peratures are above 18 C, or changes in the time of day
Commercial fishing that fishing occurs when temperatures are likely to exceed
18 C. Processors and divers have utilized global swell
Southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) recruitment has forecast models for the past decade, and increasingly they
undergone a decline in Tasmania although it is currently are utilizing available information on sea surface temper-
uncertain if it has stabilised at a lower limit, or if variability ature and seasonal climate outlooks to plan their fishing
is masking a longer-term continued decline. The fishery is activities. From 2012, a seasonal closure was implemented
co-managed by government and industry, and responses to in the Eastern zone for January to March inclusive, due to
declines in stock so far have included a decrease in the the recognition that abalone are in poor condition during
overall quota from 1540 to 1050 tonnes (https://dpipwe.tas. this period, coinciding with the warmest sea temperatures
gov.au/sea-fishing-aquaculture/commercial-fishing/rock-lob on the east coast (Mundy and McAllister 2018).
ster-fishery/rock-lobster-catch). Further reductions have Climate-driven range extension of the sea urchin C.
occurred in the most affected areas of the east coast through rodgersii has led to the establishment of a wild harvest
the introduction of a regional commercial Total Allowable industry for this species in Tasmania. Unreported in the
Catch (TAC) cap, in addition to the statewide TAC cap. state before 1978, winter warming of waters above the
This is the first time that spatial management measures critical temperature threshold for larval development of
specifying catch have been introduced to the fishery. 12 C has resulted in the species becoming highly abun-
Industry have also strongly supported measures to increase dant, even causing extensive urchin barrens in some
testing for toxins. With the increased prevalence of HABs regions (Ling 2008; Ling et al. 2009). Trial harvests for the
(Hallegraeff 2010), there has been the need for testing of a lucrative urchin roe were first conducted in 2009, with the
variety of invertebrates including abalone and rock lobsters fishery growing to yield landings of 96 tonnes by 2014.
to ensure public safety. Warm water associated with the Current production supplies the domestic market, although
Tasman Sea 2015 heatwave (Oliver et al. 2017a, b) coin- options to export product have also been explored. Industry
cided with large mortalities of lobsters held in processor subsidies are being trialled in an attempt to accelerate the
tanks. As a response, many operators have changed their development of the fishery and offset destructive urchin
landing practices so that they are unloading their (live) grazing and barren expansion on coastal reefs.
catch in areas with cooler waters.
The Tasmanian abalone fishery remains the largest wild- Aquaculture
harvest abalone fishery globally, a position held for more
than four decades. The primary target species Haliotis Shellfish farming in Tasmania has developed since the
rubra has a broad geographic range and populations in 1980s and is based on the introduced Pacific oyster,
Tasmania represent the southern and cooler extremes of its Crassostrea gigas, with a smaller amount of blue mussels,
thermal range (Mundy and McAllister 2018). Fishing effort Mytlius galloprovincialis (Crawford et al. 2003). Over the
and catch have been managed within geographic zones last 5 years, two events with direct links to climate change
since 2000 (Mundy and Jones 2017), which has enabled have had a major impact on the industry. Firstly, mussels,
some insight on the interaction between effects of fishing scallops, oysters, clams, abalone and rock lobsters on the
and effects of climate change. In the Eastern zone, TAC east coast of Tasmania were found to have high levels of
has reduced from 1120 tonnes in 2001 to 293 tonnes in Paralytic Shellfish Toxins, originating from a bloom of the
2018, but the stock has not shown signs of rebuilding, as it harmful alga, Alexandrium tamarense (Hallegraeff and

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Bolch 2016). This alga is highly toxic to humans and resulted physiologically (i.e. in terms of nutrition—Miller et al.
in a global product recall and significant economic losses. 2006; reproduction—Pankhurst and King 2010; respira-
The alga was identified as a new strain of A. tamarense that tion—Barnes et al. 2011), and phenologically (Fjelldal
has developed in response to changing environmental con- et al. 2011) and may make them more susceptible to dis-
ditions (Hallegraeff et al. 2017), and research indicates it is ease (Douglas-Helders et al. 2001). These issues are con-
associated with nutrient poor waters from the EAC, with founded by the fact that warmer waters carry less oxygen,
more stratified coastal waters and downwelling conditions adding significant additional stress. Furthermore, warming
favouring these dinoflagellates. This resulted in additional waters have the potential to bring new disease problems;
costs for farmers, who have supported development of a fish range extensions can result in both new species inter-
rapid immunological test-kit, fine-tuned to Tasmanian actions and novel vectors for pathogens which can cause
shellfish toxin profiles, to ensure the oysters are safe to eat. serious diseases. Recent outbreaks of a pilchard
Shellfish farmers have been trained to use this simple, rapid orthomyxovirus (POMV), potentially as a result of inter-
and cost-effective test kit and are now implementing it into actions with wild fish, highlight these risks (Galea et al.
their routine harvesting protocols (Dorantes-Aranda et al. 2018).
2017; DPIPWE 2017a, b). The aquaculture industry has a limited suite of options
Another major challenge for Pacific oyster farmers has to reduce direct effects of climate change (Hobday et al.
been the incursion of a virulent virus which causes Pacific 2016b): (i) move to cooler waters, (ii) move onshore, or
Oyster Mortality Syndrome (POMS). This was first detected (iii) breed more robust fish. All of these options are cur-
in south eastern Tasmania in January 2016 when up to 90% rently being investigated in Tasmania. Seasonal forecasting
of all farmed oysters died (Whittington et al. 2016). At this can provide early warming of challenging conditions
time, water temperatures were higher than normal due to the (Spillman and Hobday 2014), allowing a range of respon-
strong southerly penetration of the EAC. Although the epi- ses, such as early harvesting, to be implemented where the
demiology of POMS is still not well understood, viral out- forecasts suggest negative conditions (Hobday et al.
breaks are clearly triggered by warmer summer water 2016b). A cost–benefit analysis of offshore sea-pens, land-
temperatures (Paul-Pont et al. 2014; de Kantzow et al. 2017). based growout and larger post-smolt production high-
Oyster farmers have responded to this disease by developing lighted that climate change and warming waters were likely
a selective breeding program for disease-resistant oysters. to be significant drivers of major technological change in
Many have also changed their farm management practices, the Tasmanian salmon industry (King et al. 2016). How-
such as growing only juveniles in POMS-infected areas over ever, the subtler climate changes such as slightly increased
winter, when the temperatures are too low to trigger the virus, temperatures and lower oxygen concentrations may already
or placing more small oyster spat on their leases in summer, be being accommodated through changes in husbandry
to accommodate losses and have sufficient survive to supply practices such as reducing stocking levels, or aeration/
the market. The larger hatcheries have restructured to try to oxygenation (Hobday et al. 2016b). Selective breeding has
ensure POMS-free spat, including incorporating upgraded been a major investment and longer-term development
biosecurity standards, and building new hatcheries in South strategy for the industry over the last 20 years, with tem-
Australia. Ironically, one option being considered by several perature tolerance amongst the key breeding improvements
oyster farmers is the potential to culture the Sydney Rock achieved (Taylor et al. 2007, 2009; Dominik et al. 2010;
Oyster, Saccrostea commercialis, which is not affected by Pankhurst and King 2010; Kube et al. 2012). Whilst
POMS but which now occurs in Tasmania, presumably as a selective breeding and changing farming practices can help
result of the extended southward flow of the EAC. address some of the symptoms of climate change ulti-
Salmonid aquaculture is growing rapidly in Tasmania, is mately, the future of aquaculture in Tasmania will be
a major contributor to the state economy (DPIPWE underpinned by appropriate site selection that explicitly
2017a, b), but faces significant challenges from climate- accounts for warming waters (Hobday et al. 2018); this will
driven changes (Battaglene et al. 2008). The main species be critical to ensure the long-term environmental sustain-
grown in Tasmania is Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) which ability of salmon aquaculture.
in its endemic locale has an optimal temperature range of
between 4 and 10 C (Reddin et al. 2000), and an upper
thermal tolerance limit of 22–24 C (Barton 1996). In CHARACTERISTICS OF ADAPTATIONS
Tasmania, summer farming temperatures can range from BY MARINE RESOURCE USERS
14 to 22 C (Pankhurst and King 2010). Whilst Tasmanian
stocks would appear to have adapted over time to be tol- Marine users in Tasmania are undertaking a wide range of
erant of these warmer water conditions (Pankhurst and forms of autonomous adaptation behaviours (Table 1; Table
King 2010), increased temperatures will challenge the fish S3), typical of non-government, rather than government

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Table 1 Forms of adaptation behaviours undertaken by Tasmanian marine resource users compared with global typology adapted from Biagini
et al. (2014)
Form of adapon Descripon
fishers (Rock
Recreaonal
Recreaonal
aquaculture
aquaculture
Commercial
Commercial
behaviour
producers
producers
(Abalone)
operators
Salmonid
Shellfish
Lobster)
Charter
fishers
fishers
divers
Capacity building Developing human resources, local instuons, and
communies, equipping them with the capability to
adapt to climate change
Management and Incorporang understanding of climate science,
planning impacts, vulnerability and risk into government and
instuonal planning and management
Pracce change Revisions or expansion of pracces and on the
ground behaviour that are directly related to building
resilience
Public policy The creaon of new policies or revisions of policies or
regulaons to allow flexibility to adapt to changing
climate
Informaon Systems for communicang climate informaon to
help build resilience towards climate impacts (other
than communicaon for early warning systems)
Physical Any new or improved hard physical infrastructure
infrastructure aimed at providing direct or indirect protecon from
climate hazards
Warning or Implementaon of new or enhanced tools and
observing systems technologies for communicang weather, climate
and climate-driven risks, and for monitoring changes
in the climate or resource system
Green Any new, improved or restored so, natural
infrastructure infrastructure aimed at providing direct or indirect
protecon from climate impacts or hazards
Financing New financing or insurance strategies to prepare for
future climate disturbances
Technology Develop or expand climate-resilient technologies

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actors (Nasiritousi et al. 2014; Gutiérrez and Morgan 2017). formal and informal co-management arrangements, such as
The most common form of adaptation behaviour is practice fishing industry actor support for changes to output controls
change, from spatial re-distribution of effort and targeting to (total allowable catch settings) which ultimately requires a
account for less available/more available species; to chang- Ministerial decision; and aquaculture industry actor
ing commercial product farming, handling and landing requests for both resources for new testing kits and incor-
practices to maintain supply and quality. The predominant poration of testing into routine, mandated public health
forms of adaptation behaviours are practice change, warning checks. Moderate dependence was identified for seven of
or observing systems, and technology which likely reflects the observed adaptation behaviours. These included beha-
the extent to which marine resource users are independent of viours involving re-distribution of activities which are
government-led action. However, observed adaptation reliant on government-approved access to new marine
behaviours also included examples of management and areas or marine species, as well as activities dependent on
planning, and public policy, in two cases. These forms of government cooperation in adjusting monitoring and
adaptation behaviours (for example, industry support for assessment regimes or co-investment in research and
regional management interventions to reduce ecological development. This highlights the relational basis of the
sensitivity) exemplify that the possibilities for user-initiated adaption response space available to marine users to formal
adaptation actions can be highly dependent on or constrained governance structures for those resources.
by government actors. The range of observed adaptation behaviours are
Actors initiating adaptation actions varied in the degree expected to reduce ecological exposure (e.g. commercial
of agency over changing resource conditions in terms of fishers and post-harvest operators maintaining fish condi-
access to formal power over changing resource conditions, tion by landing them in cooler waters); reduce ecological
the extent and type of key assets available to them, and sensitivity (e.g. supporting higher levels of uncaught lob-
dependence on government cooperation. A wider array of ster biomass that reduces sensitivity to ecological change;
forms of adaptive actions were observed for industry actors selective breeding programs for farmed shellfish and sal-
than non-industrial (i.e. recreational and Indigenous) monids; and diversification of marine resources targeted as
actors, and these actions had a wider geographic scale of part of livelihood strategies to reduce sensitivity arising
effect. This may reflect that industry actors had moderate from dependence on single fisheries sectors); reduce
levels of access to formal power and higher levels of social, industry exposure to ecological vulnerability and socioe-
cultural and financial capital (Table S3). Furthermore, with conomic resource dependence on ecologically exposed
the exception of adaptive actions to promote more con- marine resources (e.g. development of new industry tar-
servative levels of resource extraction, the types of adap- geting range shifting species associated with reduced pro-
tive actions industry actors had available to them and ductivity of target species); and increase adaptive capacity
pursued were more likely to have lower levels of depen- (e.g. social media platforms which facilitate greater
dence on government cooperation. Comparatively, recre- knowledge mobilisation; and early warning systems that
ational actors were found to have lower levels of agency enable marine farmers to predict challenging conditions
and available assets and therefore fewer adaptive response and anticipate required practice changes) (Table S3).
possibilities. However, the lower diversity of type and Approximately half of the behaviours were expected to
more localised geographic scale of action and potential both build adaptive capacity and reduce either ecological
effect of adaptive responses by recreational users is also sensitivity or exposure to climate-driven impacts. Practice
likely to reflect the significant differences in stakes and change, which is the dominant form of adaptation observed
interests between marine users pursuing livelihoods from in these examples, is most commonly linked with potential
marine resource use (i.e. industry actors) and recreational reduction of ecological sensitivity.
hobbyists pursuing discretionary activities (Jentoft 2007). Closer consideration of the potential interaction between
In contrast, the marginalised position of Tasmanian Abo- adaptation behaviours of marine users as non-government
riginal peoples and their low levels of access to formal actors and the government sector (Table S3) highlights the
power, institutional forms of governance (i.e. research) and extent of potentially countervailing interactions. Non-
assets, other than through limited recognition of some government actor behaviours could lead to delays in sig-
extant rights to specific marine resources, is likely to nals received by public sector management agencies con-
account for the absence of an observed adaption response cerning the extent of negative impacts (e.g. changing farm
space for Tasmanian Aboriginal peoples (see Box 1). management practices that mask significant changes in
High dependence on resources, and responses or formal farming conditions and delay more deliberative spatial
sanction by government actors was identified for three of planning responses), and potentially dampen the incentive
the observed adaptation behaviours (Table S3). These for more transformational, but higher cost solutions. They
included adaptation behaviours undertaken under both may also lead to perverse, unintended impacts, or

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maladaptations (e.g. ecological impacts of concentrated warning or observing systems to monitor climate-driven
effort on new dive sites or newly targeted species). In changes in the environmental condition of marine farm
contrast, non-government adaptation behaviours to build lease sites), concurrent (for example, selective breeding
adaptive capacity of marine users through heightened programs for fish and shellfish stock, support for com-
knowledge mobilisation, and warning and observing sys- mercial fishery quota reductions) and reactive (for exam-
tems, were likely to be synergistic with planned ple, shifting dive locations).
adaptations. While we do not compare these non-government adap-
tation actions with government-led adaptation, our findings
suggest public benefits could be arising from some of the
THE ADAPTATION SEASCAPE synergistic marine user adaptations. Tompkins and Eakin
(2012) found a high reliance on non-government actors to
Our domain expert synthesis of marine user adaptations resource adaptation actions and limited government
and the characterization of these adaptations has revealed resources to drive planned adaptation. In effect, non-gov-
an active and diverse private agent adaptation landscape ernment actors were producing public goods although they
(Table S3). Adaptive actions undertaken in Tasmania are note that such adaptation is not a substitute for govern-
moderating damage of climate change to social and eco- ment-led adaptation because of the disjuncture between
nomic systems, particularly through actions aimed at temporal and spatial scales of the types of adaptations
building adaptive capacity of actors. It has also highlighted pursued by these different actors, and of the limited
the role of autonomous adaptation in those components of instruments available to ensure equitable distribution of
marine socioecological systems (e.g. shifts in dive loca- public goods produced—the same limitations may also
tions, technological uptake) which are less reliant on top- apply in the case explored here.
down government actions. Other identified adaptations We found evidence of likely complex interactions
involve private actors (both individually and collectively) between private and public adaptation in the region, with
exerting bottom-up influence through their engagement in examples across multiple user groups of private actions
co-management process for management actions aimed at having the possibility to distort both the timing and extent
reducing the sensitivity of marine resources (e.g. support of potentially more beneficial government adaptation. The
for reduced quota, requests for increased HAB testing). current adaptations documented here only avoid disruption
While the approach used to collate adaptations does not to the existing system, and none of the observed adaptation
assure a comprehensive representation of this private actions are anticipated to be transformative, in part due to
adaptation landscape, it comprises an evidence-based first the inability of non-government actor-driven adaptation
step describing where and how user-based autonomous alone to effect transformations on the resilience of common
adaptation is occurring, and the manner in which such pool resources systems (Tompkins and Eakin 2012).
actions may interact with government-led adaptation. Some However, the development of an urchin harvesting sector
of the adaptation actions described here may have multiple could possibly be considered as transformational adapta-
drivers behind the behaviour (e.g. a change in TAC) or may tion as it creates a new industry addressing the root of the
be difficult to attribute directly to climate drivers. How- invasive pest problem (albeit not addressing the ultimate
ever, even if this is the case, it is in some respects less root of the problem—climate change). In the context of
important to know the exact causes (or interaction of future potential transformations, it may also be important
causes) as long as adaptation commences before it is too to consider the relative permanency of current adaptation
late. Moreover, adaptation is only possible if the adaptive choices. Infrastructure and technology investments (such as
capacity exists within these marine sectors and they are undertaken by the aquaculture industry) can be expensive,
well organised. and they might make it more difficult to be adaptive in the
High-level characterisation of adaptation actions by future as the expensive investment has to be paid off
industry and community actors suggests that for all sectors through company profits first. Costly adaptations may
demand for and access to information is key, and for potentially restrict flexibility and adaption options in the
aquaculture, technology development also appears to be future. We also note that as not all impacts of climate
particularly important, with large private ‘‘investments’’ change are equivalent in terms of the implications for the
already taking place (e.g. real time environmental intelli- different user groups, e.g. SCUBA divers having to shift
gence systems and investment in selective breeding). locations to maintain a recreational pursuit versus poten-
‘‘Practice change’’ adaptation actions occasionally have the tially irreversible loss of species through which Indigenous
potential to be countervailing to government planned people feel their governance and connections to sea
adaptation. The observed adaptation behaviours include country; therefore, it is in some ways difficult to compare
those that are anticipatory (for example, resourcing of new the effectiveness and outcomes of any autonomous actions.

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The east coast of Tasmania may be unique in some understanding of such changes to ensure the greatest
contexts as there is a close relationship between industry, potential for strategic and coordinated adaptation.
science and government (and many managers in govern-
ment have worked in their positions for many years helping Acknowledgements We thank the recreational and commercial
fishers, divers, resource managers, tourism operators and seafood
the building of trust) that may have facilitated the dis- processors that shared their knowledge and information regarding
semination and indeed co-production in some cases of their practices. We are particularly grateful to the Tasmanian
information used to precipitate or inform adaptation actions Indigenous community that generously shared their experiences and
(Frusher et al. 2014). There are many enabling pre-condi- perspectives, especially Dr Aunty Patsy Cameron. Citizen science
contributors to the Redmap Australia project (www.redmap.org.au)
tions at play—strong research networks and capacity, good provided the observations and associated images for Table S1. We are
conservation, remoteness, low human population and high grateful to the resource managers, researchers and fishing industry
biodiversity—however, there is still a dissatisfaction in representatives from the project ‘‘Preparing fisheries for climate
framing a whole or complete picture at a local level. change: identifying adaptation options for four key fisheries in South
Eastern Australia’’, FRDC Project No 2011/039 that attended the
Moreover, there is clearly insufficient attention and March 2012 workshop and provided the observations in Table S2. GP
resources allocated to potential impacts of marine climate was supported by an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship.
change for Tasmanian Aboriginal peoples, and critically, Animate Your Science produced Fig. 1, under our guidance.
not all implications of climate change can be adapted to.
Additionally, the contribution here of diverse co-authors
demonstrates, for example, that the linkages between
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(Salmo salar L.) during natural amoebic gill disease challenge. Emily Ogier is a Research Fellow in social sciences at the Institute
Aquaculture 294: 172–179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. for Marine and Antarctic Studies. Her research focus is the human
aquaculture.2009.06.007 dimension of marine systems (fisheries and aquaculture in particular),
Taylor, R.S., J.W. Wynne, P.D. Kube, and N.G. Elliott. 2007. Genetic and the way this interaction is governed through both formal insti-
variation of resistance to amoebic gill disease in Atlantic salmon tutional and social processes. Currently she is investigating the
(Salmo salar) assessed in a challenge system. Aquaculture 272: incorporation of public interest and value in marine governance
94–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2007.08.007. systems, through both top-down public policy processes and changes
Thompson, P.A., M.E. Baird, T. Ingleton, and M.A. Doblin. 2009. in social acceptability driven by social movements and conflicts.
Long-term changes in temperate Australian coastal waters: Address: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of
Implications for phytoplankton. Marine Ecology Progress Series Tasmania, PO Box 49, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.
394: 1–19. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps08297. Address: Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania,
Tompkins, E.L., and H. Eakin. 2012. Managing private and public Private Bag 49, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.
adaptation to climate change. Global Environmental Change 22: e-mail: [email protected]
3–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.010.
van Putten, I.E., S. Frusher, E.A. Fulton, A.J. Hobday, S.M. Jennings, Sarah Jennings is an Adjunct Senior Researcher at the Tasmanian
S. Metcalf, and G.T. Pecl. 2015. Empirical evidence for different School of Business and Economics at the University of Tasmania. As
cognitive effects in explaining the attribution of marine range a marine economist, her research aims to support policy makers and
shifts to climate change. ICES Journal of Marine Science. managers design incentives and institutions that effectively align the
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsv192. outcome of resource users’ behaviours and actions with those that
Wahl, M., M. Molis, A.J. Hobday, S. Dudgeon, R. Neumann, P. best meet the needs and aspirations of society.
Steinberg, A.H. Campbell, E. Marzinelli, et al. 2015. The Address: Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania,
responses of brown macroalgae to environmental change from Private Bag 49, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.
local to global scales: direct versus ecologically mediated Address: Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, University
effects. Perspectives in Phycology 2: 11–29. https://doi.org/10. of Tasmania, Private Bag 84, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.
1127/pip/2015/0019. e-mail: [email protected]
Wali, A., D. Alvira, P.S. Tallman, A. Ravikumar, and M.O. Macedo.
2017. A new approach to conservation: Using community Ingrid van Putten is a Research Scientist at CSIRO. Ingrid’s
empowerment for sustainable well-being. Ecology and Society. research focusses on understanding what prompts resource user’s
https://doi.org/10.5751/es-09598-220406. behaviour and on finding tractable ways to influence it by developing
Weber, E.U. 2010. What shapes perceptions of climate change? Wiley incentives, management structures, and policies that ensure the long-
Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 1: 332–342. https:// term viability of marine systems.
doi.org/10.1002/wcc.41. Address: Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania,
Weber, E.U., and P.C. Stern. 2011. Public understanding of climate Private Bag 49, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.
change in the United States. American Psychologist 66: Address: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, 3-4 Castray Esplanade,
315–328. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0023253. Hobart, TAS 7004, Australia.
Whitmarsh, L. 2011. Scepticism and uncertainty about climate e-mail: [email protected]
change: Dimensions, determinants and change over time. Global
Environmental Change 21: 690–700. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. Christine Crawford is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for
gloenvcha.2011.01.016. Marine and Antarctic Studies at the University of Tasmania. Her
Whittington, R., P. Hick, O. Evans, A. Rubio, N. Dhand, and I. Paul- research focuses on ecologically sustainable utilization and conser-
Pont. 2016. Pacific oyster mortality syndrome: A marine vation of estuaries and inshore coastal waters, with a current emphasis
herpesvirus active in Australia. Microbiology Australia 37: on the interactions between aquaculture and the environment.
126–128. Address: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of
Wise, R.M., I. Fazey, M. Stafford Smith, S.E. Park, H.C. Eakin, Tasmania, PO Box 49, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.
E.R.M. Archer Van Garderen, and B. Campbell. 2014. Recon- e-mail: [email protected]
ceptualising adaptation to climate change as part of pathways of
change and response. Global Environmental Change 28: Hannah Fogarty is a PhD student at the Institute for Marine and
325–336. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.12.002. Antarctic Studies at the University of Tasmania and the Centre for
Yin, R.K. 2014. Case study research design and methods, 5th ed. Marine Socioecology. Her research interests include the implications
Thousand Oaks: Sage. of climate change on marine ecosystems and fishery resources, as well
as fisheries management adaptations for climate change.
Publisher’s Note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to Address: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of
jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Tasmania, PO Box 49, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.
Address: Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania,
Private Bag 49, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.
AUTHOR BIOGRAPHIES e-mail: [email protected]
Gretta T. Pecl (&) is a Professor at the Institute for Marine and
Antarctic Studies at the University of Tasmania and the Director of Stewart Frusher is an adjunct Professor in the Centre for Marine
the Centre for Marine Socioecology. Her research interests include Socioecology at the University of Tasmania. His most recent work
ecological implications of marine climate change, human adaptation focuses on bring together different disciplines to develop solutions to
to these changes, citizen science and science communication. enhance seafood production in an environmentally acceptable man-
Address: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of ner.
Tasmania, PO Box 49, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia. Address: Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania,
Address: Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 49, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.
Private Bag 49, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia. e-mail: [email protected]
e-mail: [email protected]

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Alistair J. Hobday is a Senior Principal Research Scientist at CSIRO. Address: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of
Much of his current research focuses on investigating the impacts of Tasmania, PO Box 49, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.
climate change on marine biodiversity and fishery resources, and Address: Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania,
developing, prioritising and testing adaptation options to underpin Private Bag 49, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.
sustainable use and conservation into the future. e-mail: [email protected]
Address: Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania,
Private Bag 49, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia. Craig Mundy is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Marine
Address: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, 3-4 Castray Esplanade, and Antarctic Studies. Craig’s research interests spans tropical and
Hobart, TAS 7004, Australia. temperate large marine ecosystems with a recent focus on fisheries
e-mail: [email protected] ecology of wild harvest abalone fisheries. His current interests center
on the interactions between abalone ecology, large scale physical
John Keane is a Research Fellow at the Institute for Marine and processes and harvest management, particularly with respect to key
Antarctic Studies at the University of Tasmania. He has had 10 years drivers of fleet dynamics.
research experience across a range of fields including commercial Address: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of
dive and small pelagic fisheries assessment and management. John is Tasmania, PO Box 49, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.
also an executive of the Tasmanian University Dive Club and chair of e-mail: [email protected]
the annual Tasmanian Combined (dive) Clubs Weekend.
Address: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Jemina Stuart-Smith is a Research Fellow at the Institute for Marine
Tasmania, PO Box 49, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia. and Antarctic Studies. She has experience in marine ecology, marine
e-mail: [email protected] biodiversity monitoring and conservation, the role of citizen scientists
in data collection and the education of marine issues. Jemina’s
Emma Lee is a trawlwulwuy woman of tebrakunna country and research involves marine monitoring, citizen science and changes in
Research Fellow at the Centre for Social Impact at Swinburne marine biodiversity.
University of Technology. Her research interests centre upon Address: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of
Indigenous peoples and local communities, traditional knowledges Tasmania, PO Box 49, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.
and governance practices, both local and global, to enhance Indige- e-mail: [email protected]
nous benefits of marine environments.
Address: Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Sean Tracey is a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Marine
Private Bag 49, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia. and Antarctic Studies. With a diverse portfolio in fisheries and marine
Address: Centre for Social Impact at Swinburne University of ecosystems science, he conducts innovative research across multiple
Technology, Hawthorn, VIC 3122, Australia. disciplines to address critical questions of ecological consequence,
e-mail: [email protected] and that facilitates sustainable management of marine resources. His
work spans the study of marine species and how they interact with
Catriona MacLeod is a senior research fellow and benthic ecologist each other and their environment, and assessing commercial and
at the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies at the University of recreational fisheries.
Tasmania and the Centre for Marine Socioecology. Catriona’s Address: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of
research is focussed on improving our understanding of ecosystem Tasmania, PO Box 49, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia.
processes, interactions and potential impacts in order to support e-mail: [email protected]
sustainable long-term management of our coastal and marine systems.

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BIODIVERSITY CHANGE AND HUMAN ADAPTATION

Autonomous adaptation to climate-driven change in marine

Received: 18 June 2018 / Revised: 1 February 2019 / Accepted: 9 April 2019

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

Box 1: Implications for indigenous peoples—not all impacts can be adapted to

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

communies, equipping them with the capability to

adapt to climate change

Management and Incorporang understanding of climate science,

planning impacts, vulnerability and risk into government and

instuonal planning and management

Pracce change Revisions or expansion of pracces and on the

ground behaviour that are directly related to building

Public policy The creaon of new policies or revisions of policies or

regulaons to allow ﬂexibility to adapt to changing

Informaon Systems for communicang climate informaon to

help build resilience towards climate impacts (other

than communicaon for early warning systems)

Physical Any new or improved hard physical infrastructure

infrastructure aimed at providing direct or indirect protecon from

Warning or Implementaon of new or enhanced tools and

observing systems technologies for communicang weather, climate

and climate-driven risks, and for monitoring changes

in the climate or resource system

Green Any new, improved or restored so, natural

infrastructure infrastructure aimed at providing direct or indirect

protecon from climate impacts or hazards

Financing New ﬁnancing or insurance strategies to prepare for

future climate disturbances

Technology Develop or expand climate-resilient technologies

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2019

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