Sustainability Webinar 12-01-2020

Sustainability and Technology
Webinar, December 1, 2020

Vikas Dhole and Ron Beck, Aspen Technology Inc.
Moderated by Lee Nichols, HP Magazine
Today’s Presenters
Lee Nichols Vikas Dhole

Editor-in-Chief, Vice President, Product Management
Associate Publisher Aspen Technology, Inc.
Hydrocarbon Processing
Moderator
Paige Morse Ron Beck

Director, Industry Marketing Director, Marketing Strategy
Aspen Technology, Inc. Aspen Technology, Inc.
© 2020 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

Agenda
❖ Sustainability Market Forces
❖ Industry Levers for Change
❖ Technology Use Cases

Industry Decarbonization Initiatives
Companies Worldwide are Pursuing Aggressive
Decarbonization Initiatives
▪ Energy Companies:
– NetZero Carbon by 2050: Total, Shell, BP, Repsol, Equinor,
OMV, Petronas, Lukoil, OMV, COP
– NetZero Carbon by 2030: ENI, Sinopec 25% by 2030: ADNOC
▪ Chemical Companies:
– NetZero Carbon by 2050: Dow 2040: LANXESS
– Keep Carbon neutral from 2018 to 2030: BASF
– 15% reduction by 2030: LyondellBasell 50% by 2025: Evonik
▪ Industry Financiers:
– JP Morgan net zero carbon in 2020 and establishes Center
for Carbon Transition (CCT)
Globally, external forces are driving prioritization of sustainability
IEA believes that the likely future

decarbonization scenarios will
drastically impact energy mix … to
achieve the orange and green … Through 2030, Renewables will be
scenarios, very extensive investment more and more important (the
in energy transition will be needed green) and oil and gas will grow, but
slowly (the red and purple) … … external social and investment pressure
is driving chemical industry towards a
heavy focus on the circular economy …
Sources: IEA Webinar, 11/2020 and Accenture

Regionally, Europe, Middle East and Americas have the highest focus on
sustainability; Asia has highest demand growth
… Trends will diverge by region, with Asia and Africa

(left 4 bars) showing growth and US, Japan &
Europe at the slowest GDP and energy growth rate
and shifting most towards renewable energy … low carbon incentives and carbon taxes vary
sources … considerably by region and country and will
continue to drive different digital investment
Source: IEA, 10/2020 behaviors … Source: carbontax.org
… and the investment community, following social pressures, is
incentivizing industry to invest in and show progress in sustainability
… JPMorgan Chase, largest commercial funder of energy Capital, is driving companies to demonstrate concrete
commitments towards sustainability and progress on metrics …
Source: JPMorgan Chase, Oct 6, 2020

Energy Companies Must Decarbonize Across the Value Chain
Emissions by source, share, and possible solutions (McKinsey data)
CO2 (energy related) CO2 (not energy related) Non-CO2
Extraction Flaring Fugitive Crude Refinery heat Hydrogen Fugitive

and drilling (CO2) emissions/ transport and power production/ emissions
venting (CH4) systems FCC emissions (CH4)
10% 5% 47% 5% 20% 3% 10%
▪ Energy efficiency ▪ Carbon capture, ▪ Vapor recovery ▪ Crude marine ▪ Energy efficiency ▪ Renewable ▪ Vapor recovery
use, and storage units transport hydrogen
▪ Electrification ▪ Change fuel or ▪ Leak detection
▪ No flaring ▪ Leak detection ▪ Crude pipeline feedstock ▪ Reforming and repair
▪ Carbon capture, and repair transport with CCUS
use, and storage ▪ Electrification ▪ Resolve leaks
▪ Bio-based
▪ Carbon capture, hydrogen
use and storage
▪ Change feedstock
Source: McKinsey The Future is Now: How Oil & Gas Companies can Decarbonize, Jan 2020

Technology Will Play a Key Role

Sustainability in Capital Intensive Industries
Resource Energy Transition Circular

Efficiencies & Decarbonization Economy
Reduce usage of resources such Renewable/alternative energy Waste reduction, recycling,
as energy, water or feedstock sources, biofuels renewable feedstocks, innovation
Reduce Emissions & Waste

Greenhouse Gases Metrics in Capital Intensive Industries
Sustainability
Energy Transition Greenhouse Gases

& Decarbonization
Renewable/alternative Metrics to Track Progress
energy sources, biofuels
Immediate Progress:
▪ Carbon Intensity
▪ Energy use
▪ Water use
▪ Harmful Emissions: SOX, NOX,
Reduce GHGs
Emissions & Waste
▪ Toxic substances
▪ Safety (process & people)
Long-term Goals:
Resource Efficiencies Circular Economy ▪ Net Zero Emissions
Reduce usage of Waste reduction, recycling, ▪ Design out Pollution
resources such as energy, renewable feedstocks,
water or feedstock innovation

Material Recycling in Capital Intensive Industries
Sustainability
Energy Transition Material Recycling

& Decarbonization
Renewable/alternative Metrics to Track Progress
Immediate Progress:
▪ Material Loss Intensity
▪ % Collected for Recycling
▪ Pyrolysis & Feedstock Reuse
▪ Waste Reduction
Reduce
Emissions & Waste ▪ Landfill Reduction
▪ Safety (process & people)
▪ % Renewables in Products
Long-term Goals:
Resource Efficiencies Circular Economy
Reduce usage of Waste reduction, recycling,
▪ Net Zero Emissions
resources such as energy, renewable feedstocks, ▪ Design out Waste & Pollution

Technology Use Cases and Case
Studies

Sustainability in Capital Intensive Industries: Resource Efficiencies
Energy Transition
& Decarbonization
Renewable and alternative Resource Efficiencies
Challenge
Energy inefficiency is creating
excess carbon load (up to 25%);
Growing global water shortage
Opportunity
Reduce Improve energy, utility and supply
Emissions & Waste chain effectiveness, efficiency and
sources in current operations
Value
Save 10-15% energy use & cost,
reduce 20% carbon load


Energy Efficiency & Fuel Substitution Can Get Companies
30% of the way and is a very strong initial focus
Energy Efficiency is the

key short-term lever with
best economics
Cost of
CO2
Abatement
Strategies
Source: EU Concawe, 2019
Percent of refineries CO2 load that is abated

Energy Management: Simultaneous Demand and Supply Management
Specialized skills needed

OBJECTIVE
CHALLENGES
Optimize energy consumption:
reduce process demand &
optimize utility system Consider demand & supply
Energy-capital-capacity
tradeoffs

Demand Side Energy Savings: Optimum Design & Debottleneck
Aspen Plus®, Aspen HYSYS, Activated Energy, Economics & EDR Analysis
Maximize Energy Efficiency and Reduce Emissions by 5-20%
Benefits
▪ Identify targets to achieve maximum
energy recovery
▪ Reduce energy consumption through

heat integration
▪ Replace and/or optimize the

performance of heat exchanger
networks.
▪ Higher efficient process units
▪ Improve sustainability and reduce

carbon footprint
Energy Optimization in Introduction of New Chemicals Line:
Optionality with integrated modeling achieves reduced energy and CO2 footprint
SUSTAINABILITY GOAL SOLUTION
▪ Aspen HYSYS simulates process
▪ Evaluate process options in alternatives.
new chemicals unit
▪ Activated Energy workflow
▪ Reduce overall energy
consumption and carbon optimizes process heat use
footprint ▪ Aspen Energy Analyzer provides
▪ Improve both lifecycle optimized design
VALUE CREATED economics and energy use
▪ Iterate with HYSYS for best low carbon
▪ Energy optimization workflow identified
solution
energy savings optionality resulting in:
– Steam usage reduction of 24% “Activated Energy Analysis provides an intuitive
– Reduce steam consumption (24.1
USD/T-feed); reduce production of
optimization workflow, saving 24% steam use! ”
steam (17.2 USD/T-feed)
Winner, Best Energy Mgmt. Technology

Company-Wide Initiative to Reduce Energy Consumption and
Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 10.3%; $19.2M/year savings
▪ 10.3% energy consumption ▪ Partnered with Samsung

and GHG reduction by 2020 Engineering to develop
solution:
▪ Overcome the lack of in-
– Aspen Plus, HYSYS, Aspen
house modeling & analysis Energy Analyzer, Aspen EDR
VALUE CREATED project skills and ACCE
Over $19.2M USD savings

per year for large aromatics
Extensive analysis identified and ranked over 250 energy
complex with 1.2 year
payback
improvement ideas
Systematic approach to energy & process optimization,

even for “efficient” plants, results in energy reduction
Optimizing Aromatic Production Distillation Section
for Energy Efficiency and Yield Improvement
▪ Obtain optimal design with ▪ Aspen Plus and Activated

while considering energy Energy Analysis:
costs for conceptual process – Integrated optimization tool
design of purification – Analyzed all major
configurations in the plant and
section.
identified high value
VALUE CREATED opportunities
• Achieved 35% total

energy and CO2 savings
Integrated technical & economic
• 7% Reduction in
minimum product selling Analysis resulting in Optimum
price
Design
Digital Twin Reduces Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions
Improve Process Online model mirrors real plant behavior enabling improved
Performance & Reduce operations, higher margins, lower CO2
Energy and CO2
Benefits
▪ Support operational decisions

▪ Reduce emissions and violations
▪ Train operators for startups,
shutdowns and unexpected events
▪ Improve margins
▪ Understand and visualize operations
▪ Monitor equipment performance
▪ Provide operating targets for
Advanced Process Control

Refinery Emissions Digital Twin: Model for Virtual Measurements
improved emissions tracking, reporting efficiency, and refinery unit yields
▪ Stay in compliance under ▪ First principles (simulation)
dynamic emission rules model (HYSYS), calibrated
▪ Improve accuracy, quality and online with plant data
speed of emission reporting for
▪ CO2 SOX, NOX and
KPI insight
emissions and furnace and
▪ Run at maximum yield while FCC performance calculated
VALUE CREATED meeting CO2 reduction and online
compliance targets
Emissions reporting:
▪ Increased KPI visibility
▪ Increased reporting accuracy “Emission Model digitally helps us improve the fuel mix that
can reduce emission keeping a balance with profitability. This
▪ Emissions and performance could be provided only by a model-based system capable of
insights viz. sustainability targets monitoring instantaneous values.”
Emission based crude optimization - N Chandrasekhar, General Manager Winner: Best
FS&E, BPCL Kochi Refinery, 1/2020 Innovation for
2020
Plantwide Digital Twin Creates Energy Savings and CO2 Reduction
Aspen Plus model with operator interface saves 15% steam use
▪ Developed plant-wide digital
▪ Improve operational efficiency
& effectiveness at growing twin model based on process
ethanolamines site simulation (Aspen Plus)
▪ Created simple interface for

▪ Provide easy-to-use interface
for both operators and plant operators (ASW)
VALUE CREATED technical support team for agile ▪ Runs thousands of case studies
decision-making to improve operations
15% reduction in steam
consumption, with
OXITENO uses this plant-wide digital twin to solve operating
reduction in GHG emissions
problems, help operators, & improve sustainability.
A simple control room interface provides intuitive access to

operators
Energy Savings, CO2 Reduction, and Yield Increase
With Advanced Control (DMC3) and Models Online
▪ Optimize overall process ▪ DMC commissioned first to

performance including help adjust multiple
variables and still meet
reduction in energy and CO2
product demands
consumption
▪ Digital twin optimization
models added later to
VALUE CREATED address product profitability
1.05 1.11
1.06 shifts and energy costs
APC and online
1.0 optimization
models together reduced
$ / hr
Project increased production by 7% and reduced energy

energy
0.91 use 7-9% &
increased reactor energy
use by 7-9%
efficiency by as much as - David Platt, Dow Chemical
Baseline Best DMC DMC+RTO Mature
68% Practices
Supply Side Energy and Emissions Reduction
Aspen Plus®, Aspen HYSYS, Aspen Utilities Online Optimizer, Aspen DMC3
Reduce Site Wide Energy Expenditures and Emissions by 1-5%
Benefits
▪ Monitor and optimize energy
demand and supply
▪ Create dashboards to monitor

emissions & other relevant KPIs
▪ Develop optimal plan for purchase,

generation and distribution of
utilities
▪ Deploy and maintain online digital

twins for process and utility models
driving APC targets

Energy, CO2, and Operating Cost Reduction with
Closed-Loop Utilities Optimizer and APC
▪ Shut down of part of the ▪ Site-wide utilities model

Ichihara plant created deployed online using:
opportunities to operate – Real-time historian data
differently to reduce cost – Aspen Utilities model
and emissions, maintaining – Aspen DMC (APC) to
VALUE CREATED a stable utility supply automatically implement
optimal solution
1% improvement in energy
efficiency;
Lower boiler and turbine loads increased flexibility to
1.5% cost reduction
operating conditions and fuel purchase strategies.
Increased flexibility to
choose optimal fuel type, Solution operators to make informed choices to achieve
depending on current prices lowest cost energy supply.
Summary: Potential to Deliver 10-30% Energy Savings Today
Typical Energy Savings*
5-20% Total energy
3-5% 2-10% savings:
2-10% 10 - 30%**
100%
AspenTech Energy Efficiency

70-90%
10-30% More Energy
Efficiency
possible with digital technologies in
Solutions
industrial processes
(IEA Energy Efficiency Oct 2019)
Current energy Design Planning & Performance Advanced Future energy

use Scheduling Management Process Control use
Sequencing varies based on priorities
* Typical savings based on 26 energy efficiency case studies

** Total savings depends on overlap & synergies

Sustainability in Capital Intensive Industries: Decarbonization
Energy Transition Energy Transition &

& Decarbonization
Renewable and alternative Decarbonization
Challenge
Reduce carbon footprint and
emissions over process life-cycle to
achieve long-term carbon neutrality
Opportunity
Reduce Renewable energy sources,
Emissions & Waste green/blue hydrogen and biofuels;
CO2 capture, utilization and storage
Value
At least 20-50% less footprint, >90%
less carbon taxes through CCUS


Carbon Capture System Modeling & Optimization
[ Process Modeling, Aspen Rate-Based Distillation, Economics, APC ]
Achieve Dramatic Reduction in CO2 load via Optimum Carbon Capture System
Benefits
▪ Optimize Carbon Capture Separation
– Accurate Rate-based Distillation
– Interactive Distillation Analysis
Integrated Economic Analysis
▪ Improve energy use and process
economics
▪ Identify cost-effective process to

accelerate commercialization
– Activated Economic Analysis &
Integrated Capital Cost Estimates
▪ Proven track record - multiple projects Interactive Distillation Analysis Rate Based Distillation Modeling

Simulation of Carbon Capture from CASTOR Project Pilot Plant Data
SUSTAINABILITY
CHALLENGE GOALS SOLUTION
SOLUTION
Evaluate techno- Applied Aspen Plus and
Rate-Based Distillation to
economic feasibility of simulate oxycombustion and
new power processes CO2 capture
with integrated carbon
capture Aspen Process Economic
VALUE CREATED Analyzer to evaluate process
operating & capital costs
Identified saving opportunity of
$23million / year using advanced
solvents instead of MEA “Rate-based distillation models are better than
Determined parasitic energy loss equilibrium models in simulating the CO2 capture
and additional capital costs process”
required for CO2 capture Josh Stanislowski, Energy & Environmental Research Center, University of
North Dakota
Josh Stanislowski and Tony Snyder, AspenTech Webinar “Modeling
© 2020 and Cost
Aspen Evaluation
Technology, ofrights
Inc. All Carbon Capture Processes”, May 2, 2012
reserved. 30
Integrated Oxy-fuel Power Generation System with CO2 capture
SUSTAINABILITY
SOLUTION
▪ Identify and improve best ▪ Complete Aspen HYSYS and
carbon capture energy model for integrated
technologies to support oxy-combustion technology,
evaluated optionalities,
Canada national carbon
optimized process for
reduction targets
VALUE CREATED energy use and CO2 capture
Proved CO2 removal

performance
Maximize CO2 capture through
Proved energy efficiency process integration while
achieving minimum energy use
Proved power generation
economics
Simulation of Carbon Capture from CASTOR Project Pilot Plant Data
SUSTAINABILITY
SOLUTION
Optimize operating Applied Aspen Plus and
Rate-Based Distillation for
conditions: liquid rate, lean CO2 capture using MEA
loading, gas temperature,
packing height, packing type,
etc.
VALUE CREATED
The absorber model was
able to accurately predict
the temperature and CO2
profiles of the CASTOR Pilot
Plant data, enabling process
design & cost evaluation
Ref: “Aspen RateSep Absorber Model for CO2 Capture, CASTOR Pilot
© 2020 Plant”
Aspen Russ Dugas,
Technology, IFP –reserved.
Inc. All rights Lyon, France 32
Bio-based Fuels and Chemicals; and H2 Economy
[ Aspen Plus®, Activated Energy and Economics, APC ]
Substitute Low Net Carbon Biofuels and Bio Based Chemicals
Benefits
▪ Integrate bio-based process units into refining and
chemical production flows:
– Reduce carbon-footprint
– Re-cycling of plastics and wastes with
pyrolysis
Biofuels Innovation & Commercialization Electrolysis Process for Hydrogen
▪ Improve energy use and economics of processes;
accelerate commercialization
▪ Many template models available for 1st and 2nd

Generation bio-processes
▪ Modeling to improve e-Hydrogen economics
▪ Hybrid Models capture innovative processes Bio Refining and Chemicals Commercially Viable Algae to biofuels
Sustainability in Capital Intensive Industries: Circular Economy
Energy Transition
& Decarbonization
Renewable/alternative Circular Economy
Challenge
Reduce waste and extend material
use to reduce environmental impact
Opportunity
Design out waste, pollution and
Reduce optimize recovery of energy and
Emissions & Waste material from waste
Value
Reduce waste, material and
transportation carbon footprint 20%,
up to 20% saved life cycle energy1

1 McKinsey, 2019

Waste Recovery/Recycle Opportunity
$1.5Bn Innovation
Investment
To develop circular economy solutions
(Alliance to End Plastic Waste)

Source: Alliance to End Plastic Waste, September 2020

Lifecycle Modeling of Polymer Processes: Key to Circular Economy
Design Evaluate Design Operate Improve
Accelerate development of new Evaluate technical and economic Size & rate key equipment. Guide operating decisions. Troubleshoot quality issues.
products and new grades feasibility Verify safety & controllability Minimize energy costs Debottleneck
70% Reduction 25% Faster estimates Saved $1 Million CAPEX, 7-10% Increase Reduced cycle time 25%
in experiments On time, under budget $300k development costs in production
Using Aspen Polymers Using ACCE to analyze Using Aspen Polymers Using On-Line With Aspen Polymers
to optimize recipe costs of a $20 billion to de-bottleneck Digital Twin & Aspen Plus Dynamics
for new polymer product polymer mega-project an HDPE plant for LDPE production for a specialty polymer
2% production increase
Rapid Evaluation of $135k Annual savings
Technical Feasibility 20% less variability in MFI
European Polymer
Producer
Using Aspen Plus and Using Aspen Plus to
Aspen Polymers to design Using online Aspen Polymers
optimize batch recipe for
PET recycling processes model with Aspen Non-Linear
autoclave polyethylene
Model Predictive Control

Address Challenges of Circular Economy
Aspen Plus®
Recover energy and product from plastics
Benefits
▪ Design recovery processes to convert
Pyrolysis
polymer into fuel Gas
– e.g. pyrolysis & gasification Waste

Tires
▪ Optimize chemical recycling

processes to recover monomer and
Air
minimize byproducts
Pyro Oil
▪ Reduce plastic waste and loss of Char
resources Cooling Ash

water
Wojtwicz and Serio, “Pyrolysis of waste tires: A modeling and parameter estimation study using Aspen Plus ®“,
Waste Management V 60, February 2017, Pages 482-493

Eliminating Plastic Waste: Economically Viable Polyester Recycling Process
▪ Evaluate technical & ▪ Develop rigorous models for
economic feasibility of PET chemical recycling process
recycling process and downstream separations
▪ Evaluate feedstock blends
▪ Leverage models for process

VALUE CREATED improvements in greenfield
plants around the world
The model was used as basis
for operational changes for
significant improvement in
plant performance &
process design

AI will Play a Key Role in Sustainability in Capital Intensive Industries
Energy Transition
& Decarbonization
Renewable/alternative
• Predicting unmeasured
values, E.g. Nox, Sox
• New process technologies
Reduce • Sustained Digital Twins
Emissions & Waste
• Data-driven Models &
Optimization
• Accelerate New Process
Technology Development

Hybrid Modeling: Breakthrough Innovation in Modeling
Hybrid Model
Pure First-
Leverage domain knowledge to combine first principles with Pure Machine-
Principles
AI/ML to capture the benefits, while overcoming the Learning Model
Model
challenges, of traditional models
▪ Interpolate and extrapolate

Challenges more accurately Challenges
▪ Easier to analyze and interpret ▪ Need lots of “good” data
▪ May not capture all
phenomenon ▪ Require less training data
▪ May not extrapolate well
▪ Predict inferentials for unmeasured variables
▪ Expertise required or may violate physical
▪ Run more quickly
constraints
▪ Can be time consuming to
create and run ▪ Difficult to interpret
Revolutionize the model creation & deployment workflow to build sustainable

fit-for-purpose models to be used with confidence across the asset lifecycle
Aspen Hybrid ModelsTM Will Accelerate Sustainability Initiatives
Asset-wide Modeling &

Operations Optimization Product/Operations KPIs New Equipment Models
Optimization

For More Information
Energy Transition:
https://www.aspentech.com/en/resources/blog/which-technologies-will-help-
determine-the-winners-in-the-energy-transition
Circular Economy:
https://www.aspentech.com/en/resources/white-papers/improve-sustainability-and-
increase-profits-in-polymers-with-digitalization
Technology and Sustainability Report:

https://www.aspentech.com/en/resources/report/arc-strategy-report-the-
sustainability-future-for-energy-and-chemicals
[email protected] [email protected]

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Sustainability and Technology

Webinar, December 1, 2020

Lee Nichols Vikas Dhole

Paige Morse Ron Beck

© 2020 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

© 2020 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. 3

IEA believes that the likely future

Sources: IEA Webinar, 11/2020 and Accenture

… Trends will diverge by region, with Asia and Africa

© 2020 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. 7

CO2 (energy related) CO2 (not energy related) Non-CO2

Extraction Flaring Fugitive Crude Refinery heat Hydrogen Fugitive

10% 5% 47% 5% 20% 3% 10%

© 2020 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. 8

© 2020 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. 9

Resource Energy Transition Circular

Reduce Emissions & Waste

© 2020 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. 10

Energy Transition Greenhouse Gases

© 2020 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. 11

Energy Transition Material Recycling

© 2020 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. 12

© 2020 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. 13

Resource Efficiencies Circular Economy

© 2020 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. 14

Energy Efficiency is the

Source: EU Concawe, 2019

Percent of refineries CO2 load that is abated

© 2020 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. 15

Specialized skills needed

© 2020 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. 16

Maximize Energy Efficiency and Reduce Emissions by 5-20%

▪ Reduce energy consumption through

▪ Replace and/or optimize the

▪ Higher efficient process units

▪ Improve sustainability and reduce

Winner, Best Energy Mgmt. Technology

▪ 10.3% energy consumption ▪ Partnered with Samsung

Over $19.2M USD savings

Systematic approach to energy & process optimization,

▪ Obtain optimal design with ▪ Aspen Plus and Activated

• Achieved 35% total

▪ Support operational decisions

© 2020 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. 21

▪ Created simple interface for

A simple control room interface provides intuitive access to

▪ Optimize overall process ▪ DMC commissioned first to

Project increased production by 7% and reduced energy

Reduce Site Wide Energy Expenditures and Emissions by 1-5%

▪ Create dashboards to monitor

▪ Develop optimal plan for purchase,

▪ Deploy and maintain online digital

© 2020 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. 25

▪ Shut down of part of the ▪ Site-wide utilities model

AspenTech Energy Efficiency

Current energy Design Planning & Performance Advanced Future energy

Sequencing varies based on priorities

* Typical savings based on 26 energy efficiency case studies

© 2020 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved. 27

Energy Transition Energy Transition &