Bigg Stuff
Bigg Stuff
Bigg Stuff
( 2019 - 2023 )
As the borders narrow down, the global competition is now measured in terms
of economic growth more than anything else, the use of foreign policy for
getting the maximum benefit for oneself is the key role of the diplomats and
foreign policy scholars.
According to Alex Mintz and Karl DeRouen in the book Foreign Policy
Decision making , it is all like a chess game, searching for alternatives ,
finding different alternatives and consequently executing them. According to
Shashi Tharoor in Pax Indica , the basic task of India in international affairs is
to wield a foreign policy which enables and facilitates domestic transformation
of India. What Tharoor wants to point out is that how can we enhance our
economy and society by the way we engage in the world. The idea of India
innately carries with itself a feature of heterogeneity , the presence of
innumerable castes and cultures, the ethnicities across the region. According
to the World Population review report , The current population of India is
1,429,531,309 based on projections of the latest United Nations data. The UN
estimates the July 1, 2023 population at 1,428,627,663. The management of
people on domestic and international level, the interests of state and the
decisions on international forums matter for India more than ever before.
According to the State of the Economy report published by RBI , agencies
project India to be one of the fastest growing economies at the rate of 6.5-7.0
per cent in FY23.
India became the fifth largest economy in the world according to IMF latest
GDP calculations. We acquire a major role in the global space having the
biggest working population, a huge market and a strategic space
geopolitically. Tharoor , in Pax Indica writes that what is expected of our
national leaders is that they work in a global environment keeping these
domestic priorities in mind.Ensuring that decisions are for the country's
security , freedom to make choices of one’s own interest. After that a country
must move on to build up relations with those nations which are essential
suppliers of
investment and trade, energy and mineral resources, food supplies and water
flows. This is what India’s strategic autonomy has been all about. Rajesh
Rajagopalan in his piece in Journal of International Affairs calls this an
Evasive Balancing.
According to Rohan Mukherjee and David Melone , from 1947 to this day ,
from Idealism to pragmatism , a word to describe the situation is realpolitik.
There was a time when State was the only cynosure, there was a time when
National interests outshined the international stage.
And just when things were proceeding calmly , nobody knew that British
policies could rub us the wrong way , the divide and rule which commenced
with Bengal divide, was not just a wound , it was a bloody bad cut indirectly
culminating in partition , no one was keen about except a few.
This Kashmir crisis was a problem forevermore , from that to princely states
like Hyderabad, India was in a state of a patient healing a broken arm.
From a profitable colony to leading the NAM, from language politics to caste
politics , from a Mahalanobis plan to fighting poverty , India sailed through.
There was a certain symphony in foreign policy , Chinese bonhomie got off
well , although soon the relations took a rough turn.
Melone and Chatterjee call 1970’s and 80’s an intermittent realism.
The Congress system started scattering in 67 and Mrs. Gandhi’s phase was a
tough call for India, ten years later India cleared the dust of its eyes and took a
lucid turn towards the Soviet Union.
The era of 90’ s made us realise the public loss India was facing, politics
veered towards alliance , identity and coalition ( Chatterjee , Melone )
International relations too turned realistic, the capitalist world was suddenly
welcome, defence deals being signed, it was a Look East phase of 1992.
According to Sudhanshu Tripathi , India started to connect with Asian and
African countries in search of oil , gas and resources. The writer of the paper
India’s Foreign Relations Xenia Dormandy comments that Condoleezza Rice
in 2005 noted that the world had to accept India in some way.
C. Raja Mohan says that it is a notion that Modi’s foreign policy is a significant
shift from Nehru.
It is no secret that India’s relations with Russia are on a latent decline.
Although The emphasis on the ‘Global South’ does not take away the growing
weight of the major powers, especially the United States (US), and its allies in
Europe and Asia, in India’s international relations.( Mohan , 2022 )
India has not stopped buying oil from Iran despite US sanctions , albeit
CAASTA , we decided to buy S - 400 from Russia . India has not signed the
NPT , but the Indo - US nuclear deal took place , India has stood neutral in the
Ukraine crisis , and we have kept our decades long Soviet bond intact , while
hinting that this is not an era of war . India speaks up against the public
burning of Quran and India too supports the issue of the Philippines in the
Nine dash line.
This strategic autonomy is both an opportunity and the challenge for India to
manage as S Jaishankar calls out. India pervasively strives for strategic
autonomy, even so today , yet it is possible in a global order so volatile ?
Gideon Rachmaninov phrases that it is imperative for India to now formally
join the US alliance.
The big elephant in the room is how India should conduct itself in the evolving
International system ?
There is a huge amount of political dexterity needed to keep up with the multi
alignment and as it is an Indian perception of Unity in diversity , in this game
of multiple poles and diverse choices we ought to find a strategic clarity. New
Delhi has to carefully carve out a trajectory for itself in this global labyrinth.
The USA needs India on many levels, just counting on the fact that ideological
differences never erode, US - China or US Russia can only be trade partners
, not allies in a crisis. New Delhi’s conduct in any country for example South
Africa or Afghanistan is very different from China, we build the country
foundationally and then take the credits.
The US needs India on two levels as Ashley Tellis argues , to counter China
firstly and secondly to manage proliferation, enhancing security and
democracy in the region. The US may be an ageing superpower but still holds
enough strategic ground. US China trade war is now a consistent process, the
expansion of NATO by USA and counter attacks of Russia make the globe a
place for war even more critically, the China Pakistan nexus and threats from
Afghanistan, after US pulling out forces from there and creating a void that
can be filled by anyone , India’s security concerns rise up. The growing
proximity of Russia China , China Pakistan and Russia - Pakistan have left
India too vulnerable.
According to S Jaishankar, India must learn what is called a contradictory
policy , we must not shift to the US completely , and not accept the Russian
conflicts. We seek to build relationships with oddest bedfellows , India is a
power that can bridge divides , a confident nationalism is quintessential for our
stable foothold in Asia.
India is not free from the above mentioned issues , Norman D Palmer
establishes a significant reciprocal relationship between foreign policy and
political development . This research will see how problems in India make its
stand weak on international forums. Just as the rising Hindu Nationalism
becomes a topic of debate amongst American scholars of democracy, our
Kashmir crisis makes us inefficient about the way China treats Vietnam or
Hong Kong, Veena Kukreja argues that India itself maintains a feeble foreign
policy, stops itself to be completely present on global affairs due to long term
goals.
India on Thursday ordered a halt to its largest rice export category in a move
that will roughly halve shipments by the world's largest exporter of the grain (
Livemint , 20 July )
The telegraph some time back time called India a ticking time bomb , that it has a
schizophrenic relationship with its burgeoning population
populous India is also having to contend with the spectre of climate change. Resources like
food and water —820 million Indians are estimated to be water-stressed at present (
Telegraph , 2023) .
Covid has changed the world, for better or for worse is yet to be seen.
The idea of India brings with itself the idea of Indian heterogeneity, there is an existence of
innumerable ethnic groups and cultures , the stratification by caste , deeply entrenched, has
created social cleavages , modern state system is till date trying to eliminate.
Decisions have to be uniform, equity needs to be practised, the system takes the tough call
yet loopholes exist.
We experience an uneven spread of development,
Inter border disputes are more prevalent than ever before, Tripura is burning and West
Bengal recently witnessed a violent failure of electoral system and an uncontrolled violence.
India’s ethnically rich north East is becoming a growing centre of insurgency.
Vikram Sood appropriately talks about a contested dominance.
Worries of territorial integrity are embedded profoundly in Indian Foreign Policy.
Jaishankar reiterates that India’s emergence as a global power has not yet
arrived and still has a goal on the horizon.
Reforms play an important role in our GDP. Although this front is still not
managed well. India’s net exports fell by over 12.7% to $34.66 billion this
April.( THE WIRE , 20 May 2023 )
We aren’t doing well on the manufacturing part , there is no clear cut medium
to long term trade policy.
India imports items like crude oil, critical minerals even gold and diamond ,
despite producing it in a raw form , all of this signals to going towards a
service based export , Exports to India’s key markets – the US, UAE, China,
Singapore, Bangladesh and Germany – witnessed a sharp decline of 12.69%
in April 2023.( wire , 2023 )
India’s multi aligned trade dependence now depends on Russia and China for
imports and America for exports.
This foreign policy is too scattered everywhere .
Expansive import dependence on other nations symbolises a bleak vision for
actualising India’s goal of ‘strategic autonomy’ in its foreign policy, and in
negotiating better deals for trade.
Moreover, the words of previous American political figure Henry Kissinger
about how the US and China cannot be forever adversaries is the United
States track two diplomacy that we need to be wary of.
Coming to the geopolitical situation the power centre has long shifted from
Asia Pacific to Indo Pacific. This is the same world where the victims of
nuclear aggression of Western world are the Presidents of a group of seven.
The keyword here is that though politics and economics are deeply embedded
in each other , the political scenario is ruled by economic interests. China has
its footholds everywhere , whether it’s the Islamic world, Latin America , Africa
or the neighbours India has acted for since years.
As the confusing world gets more confusing, the global stage is experiencing some
uncomfortable shifts for the Indian state , there is a significant tilt of Russia and
Pakistan towards China. Moscow is critical towards QUAD, Pakistan is inherently in
dichotomy with Indo US camaraderie , seeking intense defence cooperation. Also
through Pakistan , China gets easy roadways across Indian territory,
Pakistan and Russia are being pushed closer together over a negotiated political
settlement over Afghanistan, while cracks in the Russia-India-China strategic triangle
are solidifying.( EURASIAN TIMES , 2021 )
CPEC is China’s ambitious project. Support from Pakistan and Russia is going to be
useful to make this potential turn to reality . Gwadar port in Pakistan provides direct
access to the Chinese in the Indian Ocean. Russia has only denied joining CPEC
due to India’ s vulnerable part , Russia and China are fast exploring Western Indian
Ocean, the fight for the Arctic also picks up pace in this Russia China world , there is
a significant lack of Western foothold in the Arctic. The question is can India afford to
handle the partnership of the front which is too far away from global leadership.
Russia has struck a deal with Sudan to establish a naval base in the country.
Going close to the US , India is straining its relations with Iran too.
The bilateral naval exercise between China and Pakistan—Sea Guardians 2020,
further solidifies this claim. In October last year Russia and Pakistan supported the
claim for non interference in Chinese internal matters.
India’s soaring relations with the USA drive Russia to prioritise its matters too.
If India and Russia carry a common thread of socialist economy , India and America
too share common commitment towards freedom , democratic principles and liberty.
We saw 2 + 2 dialogues , COMCASA , also there is a growing bilateral trade in
defence , space technology , Cyber dialogue , working groups etc . Apart from this
the notion of free and open Indo Pacific is the common goal of these countries. This
globalised world demands cross country cooperation despite the confrontational
issues existing. Russian President Putin too spoke up that it is not wise for India to
restrict its relationship with other countries just because it shares a special bond with
Russia.
Today Indian policies are much more pragmatic , visible and assertive , though
the above mentioned issues bring out a conclusion that the reforms are
needed irrespective. It is a time to move away from status and prestige and
focus on hard power as much as the soft one.
Menon says India’s policies still don’t match the resonance of the current
realities ?
Why does he think so ?
The pandemic has changed the global scenario in myriad of ways and one
among them is that shallow callous decisions fail after a certain point of time.
India really does lose by the sanctions , by the US China trade war, there is a
lack of our reach for the permanent seat in the security council , despite India
having the world's largest population and being the fifth largest economy.
Reduction and diversification of dependence is one such practice to adopt,
India must work on its ever growing energy sector.
The pharmaceuticals sector needs to be strengthened. The institutional
breakdown of a country , whether in the form of electoral violence or the inter
state disputes, must be critically analysed. The violence against women can
only be stopped from educating women on all fronts. A well aware women , a
strong educational system, the proper coordination between legislative ,
executive and judiciary is what India currently needs to work on. A strong
democracy will build up our front automatically in the global world, a strong
promoter of Global South as India claims to be. Hosting the G20, BRICS and
SCO summit is a great move from India , as we show that we hold that
integral individualistic view with all empowering community goals.
The idea of India is not that weak , as some debates point out, whether it’s
Washington or China , India stands resilient.
The solution for India lies in operating in a quiet mode for the next five years,
working on our internal systems , and staying away from unnecessary feuds.
There is no great alliance which can solve all our problems without having a
strategically different opinion on a few issues
It is a genuine fear that alliance with the US will rob New Delhi of its agency ,
move us into yet another pawn amidst utwo power blocks, which is the last
thing India wants now because only a multipolar Asia can lead to a multipolar
world.
LITERATURE REVIEW
There is a lot of available literature on India’s foreign policy and strategic autonomy
yet no work altogether discussed the topics structurally.
Ian Hall in his book ‘ MODI AND THE REINVENTION OF INDIAN FOREIGN
POLICY’ is one of the recent work on this topic, where the strategies of Modi
government with focus on domestic issues are discussed, it describes a tale of how
our current prime minister through a multi aligned diplomacy and domestic issue
base walks the way through to make India a leading power.
Ian Hall also has an article on the same titled Multialignment and Indian Foreign
Policy under Narendra Modi.
There is another book , Indian Foreign Policy by Chris Ogden where Ogden sparks
some light on how Indian foreign Policy is in a state of transition and how many
policies are continued, discarded and evolved. Author also analyses various policies.
Four central themes permeate through this book which are great power aspiration,
Development and modernisation, importance of history and memory , paradoxes and
tensions .
Priya Chacko In Indian Foreign Policy: The Politics of Postcolonial Identity from 1947
to 2004 discusses India first being the moral power from nuclear technology to the
India China War. In part two the author emphasises on the modern turns India takes,
the tough phase of 1960’s , also how India sails through friendships and animosities,
lastly it discusses the BJP rule and its initial influences.
One of the prominent books on contemporary Indian foreign Policy is by David
Melone , Does the elephant Dance. This book has proved to be significant in this
current research as Melone reiterates the aspects of history relevant to foreign policy
, examining the role of internal and external policy changes. India’s multilateral
diplomacy and its exchanges with various South Asian neighbours proves to help to
put forward this debate of multialignment.
The author speaks about the various dimensions India addresses upon in tandem
with history , politically , economically, the areas of military , defence and so forth.
Another book which creatively discusses the ideas of multialignment and diplomacy
is Shashi Tharoor’s Pax Indica in which he talks about the real power of India lying
somewhere beyond what is there in form of nuclear weapons or economy or the
physical sources of strength, this noted public speaker and UN official beautifully
inculcates Nye’ s idea of soft power , not directly referring to him but yes elaborating
on this idea of Indian brand. Whether it is China or Europe or America , India has a
specific plan of action, geo- strategic space being an important one.
India’s quid pro quo with the West albeit the non cooperation on NPT, scholars
studying India just from a China angle and still this idea of Indian Foreign Policy
remaining unexplored to an extent.
In his book “India’s Foreign Policy: Retrospect and Prospect” , Sumit Ganguly , also
analyses India’s relations from independence to present day world order. There is a
level of analysis approach and this book conceptually touches on important themes.
The interesting thing is that prominent scholars like Barsur have contributed by
writing up some chapters in this work.
Coming to the next portion of this research, one of the literature on this topic is
Rajendra Abhyankar’s book ‘Indian Diplomacy: Beyond Strategic Autonomy’ which is
in a way a comprehensive survey of India’s foreign policy. Although the book goes
beyond strategic autonomy, the book first conceptually covers the idea of strategic
autonomy. Addressing the world order pre and post Cold War, the book discusses
the non alignment and travels all the way through India’s metamorphosis, how India
had to take some unprecedented turns, the key idea that is also used in this
research from this book is how India utilises its foreign policy for nation’s
development and security.
Notable books on comprehensive view Russia China Pakistan strategic trilateral are
still a potential although several research papers on this are significant to put the
idea in motion. Amina Khan, strategic fellow at ISSI , elaborates on this issue with
relation to Afghanistan being the common point , also the author brings in our
attention China’s increasing attempts in the peace process , especially after the US
pulls out of that area.
Samprity Biswas in her paper ‘ Russia–China–Pakistan Engagement in the
Changing Global Context: Scrutinising the Realist Logic of a Trilateral ‘Axis’ ‘
The study analyses the issue with a realistic dimension and relative gains, the
changing India Russia dynamics and positioning it in light of Western counter
alliance.
One book that is a must read on contemporary Indian foreign policy is Dr. S
Jaishankar’s ‘ The India Way ‘
The book picks up themes like rise of China , the US China dynamics and takes up
the prominent countries India is connected to today, what India’s interests are with
the emerging India America relationship, why India still has a long way to go, noting
that the nation has evolved and is still evolving. There is an elaboration of deals and
foreign trade agreements India signs, and what implications are of cooperation from
Europe , Japan , encompassing the QUAD alliance , finishes with domestic and
security challenges. Jaffrelot while reviewing this book speaks about how India
prefers to take forward its national interests in a multilateral way rather than crude
alliances , and those alliances too being just interest and issue based alliances.
RATIONALE AND SCOPE OF STUDY
The rationale and scope of my study is to examine the current Indian measures in
relation to foreign policy, strategic autonomy and how it connects to the overall
development of India as a leading power in the global arena. Since this world is
neither unipolar or bipolar, rather a scattered multipolarity would be a term more
appropriate, it is equally easy and difficult as a matter of perspective to put up a
strong front, New Delhi stands at the centre of this Indo-Pacific debate.
A great divide is apparent underneath, India - USA relationship gathering more and
more eyes everyday. The Russia Ukraine war somewhat has made us question how
strongly we support the war. China is technically pervasive and practically having its
influence on every neighbour country or the countries India considers important
allies. It is no secret that China has been supplying arms to Russia and China
considers Pakistan a very helpful tool to breach India’s neighbourhood. This trilateral
alliance of Russia China Pakistan is being looked by scholars as a counter of India’s
increasing bonhomie with the West on various paradigms. India is at a tough spot, it
needs to fulfil its interests without giving away the core idea of strategic autonomy.
Foreign policy and political development are codependent variables, and the vision
of India to strengthen itself as an emergent leader of the global south is that we
transition into a more efficient democracy, more responsive systems of civil society
and government. This research ultimately aims to give some key ideas about how
India can adopt some new ways of being without giving up on the old ones.
OBJECTIVES
5. To study the current issues and challenges in front of India in light of its
foreign policy.
6. To give significant examples how foreign policy and political
development are connected. How a strong Indian democracy can
become a prominent voice of the global south.
8. To study how China conflict is leading to other major issues and the
emerging Russia - China - Pakistan trilateral axis.
RESEARCH QUESTIONS -
2. Is the US - India proximity ultimately leading its farther from the conventional
Soviet bonhomie , if yes , what are the consequences? Also can India afford
to trust the West for containing China ?
3. What problems does a Russia - China - Pakistan axis ( which comes to the
fore ) pose before India ?
4. What should be a roadmap for Indian foreign policy in the next five years ( in
the light of Indo - US strategic alliance ) . Especially when India is portraying
itself as a leader of Global South, what is the apparent roadmap and is there
an specific vision in our policymakers mind ? Is it right to say that India needs
to counter some major internal faults to stabilise its position on international
forums ?
5. Who are some low key allies India can benefit from ( Philippines , UAE ,
Argentina , South Africa, Sri Lanka etc ) and how to enhance the relations
with them ?
HYPOTHESES
1. A subtle foreign policy is how India must operate in the next few years.
2. India Russia relations have taken a downside turn, especially after the
Ukraine crisis. America is just a strategic ally, not a permanent one.
4. India does need to take a step back and focus on rejuvenating its internal
systems.
5. There are countries like South Africa and Argentina which can be helpful for
India to expand its reach in the world.
METHODOLOGY
The research especially focuses on the multi-aligned nature of Indian Foreign Policy.
That being said, the nature of research is qualitative , though there are some
statistical facts related to various indexes just for basic reference on India should
improve. The websites of Ministries, the data of international organisations are to be
used.
The objectives of research are fundamental as we analyse an already existing view
of India’s multi-alignment and the highly contested case of strategic autonomy i.e.
only the issue based actions. The Indian foreign policy is being analysed historically
and analytically.
It would be unstructured research because it aims to discuss this great Indian
conundrum of surviving in this scattered multipolarity and having a framework in
mind about how to diplomatically stand strong for the Global South.
The research revisits the concepts of Foreign Policy and how India has
metamorphosed. It is very clear that the trilateral axis of Russia , China , Pakistan
already exists and this Russia Ukraine war and the Chinese conflict automatically
shifts India towards the Indo - US alliance , this research aims to go one step further
and tries to discuss the dynamics where South Asian nuclear powers are divided into
two dichotomous fronts , considering that domestic politics dictates the foreign policy.
War in Russia Ukraine intensifies and Indo US recent cooperation is relatively new, it
would be a descriptive analysis of what turn the great powers take, irrespective, how
can India position itself in the next few years to handle these challenges in a
dexterous manner. In the end , the research includes both an inductive and
deductive approach, but majorly inductive.
We take specific issues to come to some general conclusions and provide reasons
for the same. At last the internet has been an important medium for this research.
Elaborating a little bit more, if need be in further research, the respective places
would be visited and if not consequently the necessary interviews will follow.
To conclude, the research delimits itself to the period between 2019 to 2023 to keep
the facts limited, so that required time can be devoted to each idea being addressed
in the same.
Tentative Chapters :
1. INTRODUCTION
Taking a deeper dig at the current foreign policy, why and how multi alignment
plays a crucial role today. The Importance of India in the World today. Looking
at the policies of conflict and cooperation.
It will then trace a very short history of how foreign policy looked in the pre and
post-Cold War era.
How India moved from an idealistic to a realist notion of practising
International relations. A historical analytical view of the same.
This chapter deals with India’s increasing inclination toward the West and its
diminishing channels of communication with Russia. This is a central chapter
of this research as it addresses multiple questions -
India's relations with America, its relations with Russia, the US-China
competition, and India’s response to both parties with subtle attention to
Chinese diplomacy.
This chapter would deal with the emerging potential of the trilateral axis and
scholars putting it as a counter to the contemporary QUAD setting.
This chapter would look at how the external platform mirrors the internal
platform and vice versa. The key problems in Indian democracy and how they
influence the strength and weaknesses of diplomacy.How India can improve
its stake as a representative of the Global South, what are some countries
with whom we can develop a mutual partnership?
CONCLUSION
The conclusion will be a summary of the thesis, taking a leaf out of every
single chapter. It would be a defence of the initial assumptions.
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