Infinity Lithium INF Research Update 1702373977
Infinity Lithium INF Research Update 1702373977
Infinity Lithium INF Research Update 1702373977
For important information, please see the Disclosure & Disclaimer section at the end of this document.
Infinity Lithium Corporation Ltd (ASX: INF)
Significant Lithium Project Strategically Located
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. INF Valuation ...................................................................................... 3
San José Lithium Project Financial Modelling and NPV Valuation ....... 3
Market Peers ........................................................................................ 3
INF Sum of the Parts Valuation ............................................................ 3
2. INF Strategy ........................................................................................ 4
3. San José Project Benchmarking ...................................................... 5
Mineral Resource ................................................................................. 5
Capital Intensity and Mine Life ............................................................. 5
Other Parameters ................................................................................. 5
4. Lithium Market Outlook ..................................................................... 6
Overview .............................................................................................. 6
Price Forecast ...................................................................................... 6
5. San José Lithium Project .................................................................. 7
Location ................................................................................................ 7
History .................................................................................................. 8
Ownership ............................................................................................ 8
Geology and Geological Interpretation ................................................. 9
Mineral Resource Estimate .................................................................. 9
Mining ................................................................................................. 10
Metallurgical Testwork ........................................................................ 11
Processing.......................................................................................... 11
Partnerships ....................................................................................... 13
6. Directors & Management Team ...................................................... 14
Adrian Byass, Non-Executive Chairman............................................. 14
Ryan Parkin, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer ............ 14
Remy Welschinger, Non-Executive Director....................................... 14
Jon Starink, Executive Director and Chief Technical Officer .............. 15
Ramón Jiménez Serrano, Executive Director ..................................... 15
Dr David Maree, Technical Advisor .................................................... 16
7. Investment Risks ............................................................................. 16
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Infinity Lithium Corporation Ltd (ASX: INF)
Significant Lithium Project Strategically Located
1. INF Valuation
San José Lithium Project Financial Modelling and NPV Valuation
We have initially modelled the project based on the September 2023 updated
scoping study with the following key parameters:
• Ore mined: 47.7 million tonnes
• Head grade: 0.66% vs 0.74% Li2O in mineral resource
• Mining/processing rate: 2 million tonnes per annum
• Recovery: 90%
• Construction: 2 years
• Life of mine: 26 years
• Capex: US$1,544 million (including US$257 million of contingencies)
• Mining cost: US$23.5/t mined (back calculated)
• Processing cost: US$4,717/t LiOH
• No royalties
• Discount rate: 8%
• Lithium hydroxide price: US$27,000/t LiOH
Our model results in a pre-tax NPV of US$4,095 million (vs US$4,116m
announced by INF) and an IRR of 25.1% (vs. 25.8% announced). The post tax
values are US$2,874 million NPV and 23.3% IRR (vs US$2,870m and IRR
21.3%).
Using various lithium hydroxide prices, Table 1.1 summarises the valuation of the
San José lithium project.
Table 1.1 – San José Project NPV Valuation
Lithium Hydroxide Price Post tax NPV8% IRR
Market Peers
Figure 1.1 charts the market capitalisation of the selected companies and some
parameters of their flagship lithium project: expected lithium hydroxide annual
production and stage of development. More importantly, it includes the ratio
market capitalisation to NPV as a percentage.
Considering the latest positive ASX announcements (updated scoping study,
substantial government grant of A$31 million, favorable development towards in
relation to permitting), we have selected a ratio of 5%, which is in line with market
peers.
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Infinity Lithium Corporation Ltd (ASX: INF)
Significant Lithium Project Strategically Located
$300
$200 4% of NPV
4% of NPV
$115m $96m 5% of NPV 4% of NPV 9% of NPV
$77m $70m 1% of NPV
$100 $65m $46m
$0
VUL.ASX EMH.ASX EUR.ASX SAV.AIM ZNWD.AIM LPD.ASX INF.ASX
$100
Zero Carbon, Germany Wolfsberg, Austria Barroso, Portugal Zinnwald, Germany Karibib, Namibia San Jose, Spain
Cinovec, Czech Republic
$200
24,000 tpa LiOH 29,386 tpa LiOH 8,800 tpa LiOH 29,000 tpa LiOH equiv. 12,011 tpa LiOH 4,350 tpa LiOH 33,000 tpa LiOH
$300 DFS completed PFS Jan 2022 DFS Jan 2023 SS June 2023 PEA Sep 2022 DFS and FEED completed SS Nov 2023
Source: Evolution Capital
2. INF Strategy
INF aims to facilitate Europe’s energy transition through the development of its
fully integrated San José Lithium Project, and the development of innovative,
sustainable lithium processing technologies through its Infinity GreenTech
business. With a demand for enormous quantities of lithium chemicals forecasted
for Europe over the coming years and a determination to become more self-
sufficient in its supply of critical raw materials, the San José Lithium Project can
contribute close to 33,000tpa of battery grade lithium chemicals to the region’s
lithium-ion battery value chain. The recently introduced (March 2023) European
Critical Raw Materials Act aims to ensure that by 2030 the EU extraction capacity
covers at least 10% of the EU's annual consumption of strategic raw materials
and the EU processing capacity covers at least 40% of the EU's annual
consumption of strategic raw materials. With less than 10 lithium projects located
in the EU, there is a strong political incentive for them to reach production.
The San José deposit, located in the Extremadura Region of Spain is a highly
advanced, previously mined brownfields development opportunity. INF will mine
the hard rock mica resource and develop processing facilities to provide a
strategically essential European mine-to-end-product lithium chemicals
operation.
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Infinity Lithium Corporation Ltd (ASX: INF)
Significant Lithium Project Strategically Located
6 0.75
4 0.50
2 0.25
0 0.00
Cinovec, EMH San José, INF Zinnwald, ZNWD Barroso, SAV Keliber, SSW Wolfsberg, EUR Karibib, LPD
Lithium Content (Mt LCE) Li2O (%)
Source: company announcements
$60,000 24
$40,000 16
$20,000 8
$0 0
Cinovec, EMH Zinnwald, ZNWD Rhyolite Ridge, Keliber, SSW San Jose, INF Karibib, LPD Zero Carbon, Wolfsberg, EUR
INR VUL
Capital Intensity Life Of Mine
Source: company announcements
Other Parameters
Table 3.1 compiles the results of development studies for projects aiming to
produce lithium hydroxide located mostly in Europe.
Table 3.1 – Selected Projects aiming to produce Lithium Hydroxide
LiOH
Company Ticker Project Study, Date Capex Opex LOM Post Tax NPV† IRR Production
Price*
US$m US$/t years US$m % tpa LiOH US$/t
European Metals EMH.ASX Cinovec PFS, Jan-22 $644 $3,435 25 $1,938 36% 20,900 $17,000
Infinity Lithium INF.ASX San José SS, Nov-23 $1,544 $5,922 26 $2,870 21% 33,000 $27,000
Zinnwald Lithium ZNWD.AIM Zinnwald PEA, Sep-22 $337 $6,200 36 $1,012 29% 12,011 $22,500
Ioneer INR.ASX Rhyolite Ridge DFS, Apr-20 $785 $2,510 26 $1,265 21% 22,000 $15,000
Sibanye-Stillwater SSW.JSE Keliber DFS, Nov-22 $647 $7,426 15 $976 20% 15,000 $26,034
Lepidico LPD.ASX Karibib DFS, Nov-22 $266 $7,100 19 $452 n/a 4,350 $16,800
Vulcan Energy VUL.ASX Zero Carbon DFS, Feb-23 $1,676 $4,477 30 $2,860 26% 24,000 $33,311
European Lithium EUR.ASX Wolfsberg DFS, Jan-23 $866 n/a 15 $1,504 n/a 20,000 $50,000
Source: company announcements. † discount rate of 8% except EUR 6%. * lithium hydroxide price assumption
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Infinity Lithium Corporation Ltd (ASX: INF)
Significant Lithium Project Strategically Located
The San José Lithium Project updated scoping study indicates that the project
key parameters are in line with most lithium hydroxide projects. It is now up to the
company to refine and potentially improve those economic parameters with
additional development studies. Interestingly, the San José project is expected to
produce the largest annual output of lithium hydroxide within Europe.
Source: IEA analysis based on S&P Global (2021), visualising the Global Demand for Lithium
According to S&P Global the market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 18% over
that period.
Price Forecast
In parallel, S&P Global expects the lithium prices to retrace some of the recent
gains and stabilise at a high level around US$25,000/t for lithium carbonate.
Figure 4.2 – Lithium Market Supply and Demand and Prices
2,000 $80,000
Chemical Supply/ Demand (kt LCE)
$70,000
1,500 $60,000
$50,000
1,000 $40,000
$30,000
500 $20,000
$10,000
0 $0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
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Infinity Lithium Corporation Ltd (ASX: INF)
Significant Lithium Project Strategically Located
Source: INF
The San José Lithium Project is located near the town of Cáceres approximately
280 kilometres west- southwest of Madrid, within the Extremadura Region of
Spain as shown in Figure 5.1. Spain is considered to be a low sovereign risk
investment location. The Project area is well serviced by infrastructure including
electricity, gas, water and roads. There is a significant and growing availability of
renewable electricity available to the Project. On 31st July 2023, Infinity through
its wholly owned subsidiary Extremadura New Energies, announced the
formation of Spanish renewable energy entity Extremadura Energy H2 Hub
(EEHH). The MoU between the parties highlighted that EEHH will provide the
Project a first right to secure a long-term green energy power purchase
agreement (PPA). The ability to source and secure green energy is critical for an
environmentally, socially and economically credentialled industrial project in
Europe, particularly against the backdrop of competitive energy availability issues
due to energy pressures within the EU. San José will have the opportunity to
secure long term and low-cost green energy prices, mitigate pricing volatility, and
eliminate costs for grid access and transmission, providing a robust position for
the advancement of San José.
As the demand for electric vehicles increases throughout Europe, the demand for
lithium-ion batteries is projected to increase. The Project is located in close
proximity to the growing European lithium-ion battery market. Of note, is the
Envision Group battery plant, a €2.5 billion investment, with a planned production
capacity of 30 GWh to be built 100km from Cáceres, in Navalmoral de la Mata in
the central-western region of Extremadura.
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Infinity Lithium Corporation Ltd (ASX: INF)
Significant Lithium Project Strategically Located
On 19th July 2023, INF announced having secured a long-term (35 years) lease
over land for the industrial development of the San José Lithium Project. The
industrial zoned land is located within the granted Exploration Permit. The rights
that have been secured over the single largest landholding for the designated
lithium chemical conversion plant and related processing activities comprises 36
hectares or more than one third of the total proposed development. area. The
industrial zoned land is located adjacent to the sealed road and other key
infrastructure.
History
The Project area has been historically mined for tin into the 1960s, with existing
evidence of those activities remaining, including underground mining
infrastructure and other disused buildings occupying the San José area. After
cessation of tin mining, exploration and technical studies were undertaken by
Spanish mining group Tolsa S.A. (‘Tolsa’) in the 1980s and 1990s which resulted
in the identification of a substantial resource of lithium bearing mica minerals.
Tolsa conducted technical studies on the mining and extraction of lithium at the
time. The Project did not progress under Tolsa’s ownership and the tenure lapsed
due to the different market conditions at the time.
In 2015 the Directorate-General for Industry, Energy and Mines of the Regional
Government of Extremadura (‘Junta’) called for tenders including areas now
referred to under San José. Spanish mineral resource company Valoriza Mineria
S.A. (‘Valoriza Mineria’) submitted an application and was successful in the
tender process with rights relating to a research permit area granted in early
2016. Infinity and Valoriza Mineria later entered into a Joint Venture (‘JV’)
agreement with Infinity having now earned a 75% interest in the Project.
Infinity has the Option, at its election to proceed to a 100% interest in the Project
through a payment to Valoriza Minera.
Ownership
San José resides within the Project special purpose vehicle Technología
Extremeña del Litio (TEL). Infinity retains 75% Project ownership through its
wholly owned subsidiary Extremadura New Energies. Valoriza maintains 25%
Project ownership, with Infinity maintaining an option to acquire Valoriza’s interest
in the Project prior to the final investment decision.
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Infinity Lithium Corporation Ltd (ASX: INF)
Significant Lithium Project Strategically Located
The exercise of the call option requires an upfront payment between €2m and
€4m dependent on timing of acquisition. Considering the relatively low cost to
exercise the option, we have assumed 100% project ownership in our valuation.
Table 5.1 – San José 2018 Mineral Resource Estimate – 1,000 ppm lithium cut-off
Classification Tonnes Li2O% Li2O content
Table 5.2 – San José 2018 Mineral Resource Estimate – 2,500 ppm lithium cut-off
Classification Tonnes Li2O% Li2O content
Source: INF
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Infinity Lithium Corporation Ltd (ASX: INF)
Significant Lithium Project Strategically Located
Mining
Previous mining at San José has been conducted using underground methods
on a limited scale to extract tin-bearing quartz veins.
The underground mining plan supports a 2 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa)
processing plant located on site. The mine will be developed with the portal
entrance located in close proximity to the proposed lithium chemical conversion
facility. The access to the resource via two declines will extend approximately
1,300m and drive from the portal WNW declining to approximately 60m below
ground before it encounters the resource.
Source: INF
The mine will ramp-up to full production over a 2-year period from start of
production and then operate at 2.0Mtpa production for 22 years before it reduces
based on current available resources to cease production after 26 years. The
mine plan delivers 47.7Mt for a contained 145.7kt of LCE to the processing plant.
The mine schedule is shown below in Figure 5.5.
Source: INF
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Infinity Lithium Corporation Ltd (ASX: INF)
Significant Lithium Project Strategically Located
Metallurgical Testwork
On 7 September 2023, INF announced the successful scaled-up production of
battery grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from the completion of
metallurgical test work.
INF’s wholly owned subsidiary Infinity GreenTech Pty Ltd (‘INFGT’) has finalised
the first stage locked cycle test work to confirm material improvements in
recoveries and the successful production of battery grade lithium hydroxide
through the application of INFGT’s Li-Stream RPKTM process.
The patent protected Li-Stream RPKTM process has been developed and
optimised for the production of battery grade lithium hydroxide at San José.
The Company’s Technical Advisory Committee has progressed a detailed
evaluation of multiple technically feasible alternative extractive technologies and
reagents for lithium bearing hard rock ores, including the evaluation of
comparative operating costs and process complexity, with a view to ensuring that
the optimum process flowsheet is ultimately adopted for commercial
development. The evaluation of alternative processes was undertaken as part of
the feasibility study process and internal assessment of multiple technologies,
with consideration to opportunities relevant to social, environmental and technical
improvements that could potentially eventuate from hard rock lithium chemical
processing. The review identified several opportunities and focused effort on two
processes which can potentially offer significant improvements over the
previously adopted process in terms of process performance, operating cost and
complexity, energy security and environmental footprint.
Li-Stream RPKTM has been developed specifically for the mineralogy at San José.
Previously completed open circuit test work confirmed optimised conditions for
recoveries and the basis for advancement of Locked Cycle Test (‘LCT’) work. Li-
Stream RPKTM has confirmed in excess of 90% recoveries from ROM to lithium
products at San José and the production of battery grade lithium hydroxide
through the direct processing of ROM from San José.
Li-Stream RPKTM significantly reduces the ROM-to-Product flowsheet complexity
by eliminating a number of unit operations including the requirement for
beneficiation, calcining and roasting, whilst co-generating energy applicable for
leaching, evaporation and crystallisation.
Processing
The lithium hydroxide process converts an underground-mined dark mica rock
ore of 0.66% Li2O into a battery grade lithium hydroxide monohydrate powder
(LiOH·H2O, or LHM) at 56.5% purity.
The process retains a typical hard rock lithium chemical conversion process of
lithium sulphate liquor to battery grade LHM.
The process plant facility has been designed to output circa 33,300 tonnes per
annum of LHM product based on a ROM feed grade of 0.66% Li2O and feed rate
of 2 million tonnes per annum of ROM (dry basis) to the processing plant, based
on the mine schedule. Lithium recovery is based on locked cycle test (‘LCT’) work
(as announced on 7 September 2023) which has indicated that in excess of 90%
extraction of lithium is possible in the hydrometallurgical process.
Stage 1: Crushing & Milling Circuit
Ore is mined underground at 2 million tonnes per annum. Primary crushing is
carried out underground and crushed ore is transferred to the above ground
crushing circuit which is comprised of a double deck screen, secondary and
tertiary cone crushers.
The crushed ore stockpile provides crushed material between the mining
operations and downstream milling and lithium chemical conversion operations.
Crushed ore is fed into the SAG mill feed chute along with process water to
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Infinity Lithium Corporation Ltd (ASX: INF)
Significant Lithium Project Strategically Located
achieve a SAG mill operating density of 60% solids as required for optimum grind
efficiency.
Product sized particles are separated from coarser particles through cyclone
separation. Fine particles are sent directly to the leaching unit while the coarse
particles report to the cyclone underflow which flows by gravity to the feed chute
of the ball mill. Process water is also added to the feed chute of the ball mill to
adjust the pulp density to a level required for efficient grinding.
Source: INF
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Infinity Lithium Corporation Ltd (ASX: INF)
Significant Lithium Project Strategically Located
After sodium and sulphate removal LHM is crystallised in a two stage LHM
crystallisation, producing an ultra- pure LHM product which is dried and bagged
for sale.
A proprietary lithium recovery process, developed by Infinity GreenTech and
Infinity’s Technical Advisory Committee, processes the bleed from LHM
crystallisation and purge from SSA crystallisation.
Partnerships
On 28 Jun 2021, INF signed a non-binding MOU with LG Energy Solutions for
the offtake of lithium hydroxide.
The key terms of the MOU are detailed below:
• The MOU refers to the potential supply of LiOH for an initial 5-year
period with the potential to continue for a further 5 years
• First right to 10,000tpa of Product with additional volumes under the
MOU subject to negotiations and agreement between Infinity and LG
Energy Solutions
• The purchase price for the product will be based on the market prices
for lithium hydroxide, subject to agreement by the parties and to be
finalised under the terms of a binding offtake agreement.
The maturity date of this MOU has been extended with the latest maturity date
being 22 Dec 2023.
On 31 July 2023, INF, through its wholly owned subsidiary Extremadura New
Energies, announced the formation of Spanish renewable energy entity
Extremadura Energy H2 Hub (EEHH).
The MoU between the parties highlighted that EEHH will provide the Project a
first right to secure a long-term green energy power purchase agreement (‘PPA’).
The ability to source and secure green energy is critical for an environmentally,
socially and economically credentialled industrial project in Europe, particularly
against the backdrop of competitive energy availability issues due to energy
pressures within the EU. San José will have the opportunity to secure long term
and low-cost green energy prices, mitigate pricing volatility, and eliminate costs
for grid access and transmission, providing a robust position for the advancement
of San José.
Source: INF
EEHH will initially progress the development of a green hydrogen plant (with a
maximum capacity of up to 180 MW) and a photovoltaic solar park (with a
maximum capacity of up to 350 MW) in Cáceres in direct alignment to San José.
The large-scale development will potentially provide excess green energy
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Infinity Lithium Corporation Ltd (ASX: INF)
Significant Lithium Project Strategically Located
capacity for other end users, which could attract further opportunities for
additional industrial investment in Cáceres, in alignment with local and regional
government strategies.
The Renewable Project will see Extremadura New Energies partner with Enalter
to establish the Renewables Project JV company upon the successful completion
of an initial scoping phase. Enalter was established as a joint venture between
leading Extremadura company Cristian Lay Grupo Industrial (CLG) subsidiary
Alter Enersun, S.A and Spanish IBEX35 energy company Enagás S.A subsidiary
Enagás Renovable, S.L.
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Infinity Lithium Corporation Ltd (ASX: INF)
Significant Lithium Project Strategically Located
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Infinity Lithium Corporation Ltd (ASX: INF)
Significant Lithium Project Strategically Located
7. Investment Risks
INF is exposed to a number of risks including:
• Geological risk: the actual characteristics of an ore deposit may differ
significantly from initial interpretations.
• Resource risk: all resource estimates are expressions of judgement
based on knowledge, experience and industry practice. Estimates,
which were valid when originally calculated may alter significantly
when new information or techniques become available. In addition, by
their very nature, resource estimates are imprecise and depend to
some extent on interpretations, which may prove to be inaccurate.
• Commodity price risk: the revenues INF will derive mainly through
the sale of lithium products exposing the potential income to metal
price risk. The price of lithium fluctuates and is affected by many
factors beyond the control of INF. Such factors include supply and
demand fluctuations, technological advancements and macro-
economic factors.
• Exchange Rate risk: The revenue INF derives from the sale of metal
products exposes the potential income to exchange rate risk.
International prices of lithium are denominated in United States dollars,
whereas costs are in Euros and the financial reporting currency of INF
is the Australian dollar, exposing the company to the fluctuations and
volatility of the rate of exchange between the AUD, EUR and USD as
determined by international markets.
• Mining risk: A reduction in mine production would result in reduced
revenue.
• Processing risks: A reduction in plant throughput would result in
reduced revenue. In all processing plants, some metal is lost rather
than reporting to the valuable product. If the recovery of metal is less
than forecast, then revenue will be reduced.
• Operational cost risk: an increase in operating costs will reduce the
profitability and free cash generation of the project.
• Management and labour risk: an experienced and skilled
management team is essential to the successful development and
operation of mining projects.
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Infinity Lithium Corporation Ltd (ASX: INF)
Significant Lithium Project Strategically Located
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