1.

Introduction
Transportation is essential for a nation’s development and growth. In both the public and
private sector, opportunities for engineering careers in transportation are exciting and rewarding.
Elements are constantly being added to the world’s highway, rail, airport, and mass transit systems,
and new techniques are being applied for operating and maintaining the systems safely and
economically. Many organizations and agencies exist to plan, design, build, operate, and maintain
the nation’s transportation system.

2. Transportation and Society

The purpose of transportation is to provide a mechanism for the exchange of goods, people,
information, and to support economic improvements for society. Transportation provides the
means to travel for purposes of employment, exploration, or personal fulfillment and is a necessary
condition for human activities such as commerce, recreation, and defense. Transportation is
defined as the movement of people and goods to meet the basic needs of society that require
mobility and access. There are many examples of transportation movements that occur daily; a
family journeys to another country to seek a better life, a medical emergency requires the
immediate transfer of a patient to a hospital, a sales executive travels across the country to attend
a management conference, a truckload of fresh produce is delivered to a supermarket, and workers
commute from their homes to places of employment.
The quality of transportation affects a society’s ability to utilize its natural resources of labor
and/or materials. Transportation also influences the competitive position with respect to other
regions or nations. Without the ability to transport products easily, a region may be unable to offer
goods and services at an attractive price and thus may reduce or lose market share. By providing
transportation services safely, reliably, and quickly with sufficient capacity and at a competitive
price, a state or nation is able to expand its economic base, enter new markets and import skilled
labor.
Every developed nation and region with a strong economic base has invested in high-quality
transportation services. In the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, nations such as England and
Spain with a strong maritime presence became the rulers of vast colonial empires and established
international commerce with trade routes to North America, India, Africa, and the Far East. In the
twentieth century, countries that became leaders in industry and commerce—such as the United
States, Canada, Japan, and Germany—relied on modern networks of sea, land, and air
transportation. These systems enhanced the capability of their industries to transport manufactured
goods, raw materials, and technical expertise and thus maximize the comparative advantage over
other competitors. In the twenty-first century, information technology and the integration of land,
sea, and air modes have helped to create a global economy. For countries lacking natural resources,
reliance on transportation is essential to assure the importation of raw materials needed to
manufacture automobiles, electronics, and other export products.
 Modern integrated transportation facilities are a necessary but not sufficient condition to assure
economic development and prosperity. Without competitive transportation services, the economic
potential of a region is limited. To succeed, a region must be endowed with natural or human
resources, infrastructure (such as water, power, and sewage disposal facilities), financial capital,
adequate housing, and a strong military defense. When these conditions are in place, economic
growth will depend on the quality of the internal transportation system, which consists of
highways, railroads, airlines, shipping, and ports. It will also depend on the quality of multimodal
linkages with the rest of the world, including maritime, rail, trucking, and air services.
Good transportation provides many benefits to society in addition to its role in economic
development. Advances in transportation have contributed to the quality of life and have expanded
opportunities to engage in the pursuit of happiness, a right of Americans stated by Thomas
Jefferson in the Declaration of Independence. Modern transportation systems have provided the
world with an unprecedented degree of mobility.
In contrast to earlier times, today we can travel by auto, rail, ship, or airplane to any part of the
nation or world to visit friends and relatives and explore new sights. We can also alter our present
living conditions by moving elsewhere. Because of good transportation, health care has
dramatically improved—for example, drugs, transplants, and medical equipment can be
transported in emergency situations to a remote hospital or patients can be moved quickly to
specialized medical facilities. Improvements in transportation have contributed to the worldwide
decline of hunger as food shortages due to famine, war, or weather have been replenished by air
and sea lifts. Other benefits to society include extension of life expectancy, enhanced opportunities
for advanced education and technical training, increased incomes and standards of living, broader
recreational options, reduction of inequality in education and employment, and wider participation
in worldwide multicultural experiences.
The benefits of providing society with improved transportation, whether they are justified on
the basis of economic development or mobility, are not achieved without a price. The costs to
society are both direct and indirect. Direct costs include capital and operating expenses including
right of way, facilities and maintenance. Indirect costs include environmental effects, congestion,
property damage, injuries, and deaths.

3. Transportation Planning
Transportation planning involves the process of developing plans and programs that improve
present travel conditions. Planners ask questions such as: Should an existing airport be expanded
or should a new one be built? Should a freeway be widened? Should a rail transit line be
constructed? The process involves defining the problem, setting goals and objectives, collecting
travel and facilities data, forecasting future traffic demand, and evaluating options. The planner
may also be required to assess the environmental impacts, the effect of the project on land use, and
the benefits of the project compared with the cost. Physical feasibility and sources of funding are
also considered. The final product is a comparison of various alternatives based on established
objectives and criteria and an analysis of how each option will accomplish the desired goals and
objectives. A plan is then recommended for consideration and comment by decision makers and
the public
Transportation design involves the specification of features that comprise the transportation
facility such that it will function efficiently and in accord with appropriate criteria and
mathematical relationships. The final design provides a blueprint for use by the owner and the
contractor as it establishes the detailed specifications for the project. The design process involves
the selection of dimensions for geometric features of alignment and grade as well as structural
elements for bridges and pavements. For runways or highways the pavement thickness is
determined. If bridges or drainage structures are required (for example, at a railroad grade crossing
or in retrofitting tunnel clearances to accommodate double-stacked railroad cars), a structural
design is performed. Provision for drainage facilities, including open channels, culverts, and
subsurface elements, is included in the design. Traffic control devices are also specified (for
example at railroad grade crossings and within marine terminals). Traffic control centers for air,
rail, or highway systems will require facilities for monitoring and modifying traffic patterns as
conditions warrant. Design engineers must be proficient in subjects such as soil mechanics and
foundations, hydraulics, land surveying, pavement structure, and geometric design. The design
process results in a set of detailed plans that can be used for estimating the facility cost and for
carrying out the construction.
Transportation construction involves all aspects of the building process. Typically a
construction firm is selected because of its experience, availability of skilled construction workers,
and competitive low bid. Some construction firms specialize in a particular aspect of
transportation, such as highway construction, airports, seaports, and rail transit. For a very large
project, several construction firms usually organize a consortia and subdivide the work into
segments. Construction firms also specialize as subcontractors for tasks such as electrical,
foundations, pilings, bridges, tunnel borings, framing, plumbing, and earth moving. The
transportation engineer’s role in construction is to represent the owner to assure the project is being
built according to specifications, to approve partial payments, to inspect the work in progress, and
to represent the owner in negotiations for changes in work or in disputes that may arise. The
transportation engineer may also be employed by the contractor and in this capacity is responsible
for estimating costs, managing day-to-day work, dealing with subcontractors, and representing the
firm in negotiations with the contracting agency or firm.
Transportation operations and management involves the control of vehicles in real time to
ensure that they are traveling in paths that are secure from interference with other vehicles or
pedestrians. While each transportation mode has unique traffic control procedures, it is the
responsibility of the transportation engineer to devise systems and procedures that will assure both
safety and capacity. On highways, individual drivers are in control of vehicles and thus the traffic
control system consists of signs, markings, and signals, which are intended to warn and direct
motorists. The transportation engineer applies the latest technology to monitor traffic, provide
information to motorists, and respond to traffic crashes. Air traffic control is a one-on-one process
with a controller monitoring the location of every aircraft and providing directions regarding
cruising altitude, speed, take-off, and landing. Rail systems are controlled from a traffic center and
by railway signals that automatically assign right-of-way and dictate speed. The locomotive driver
may operate under visual or radio control. In each instance the transportation engineer is
responsible for developing a control system that is consistent with providing the highest level of
safety and service.
Transportation infrastructure maintenance involves the process of assuring that the nation’s
transportation system remains in excellent working condition. Often maintenance is neglected as
a cost-saving tactic, and the result can be catastrophic. Maintenance is not politically attractive, as
is new construction, yet the effects of deferred maintenance—if undetected—can result in tragedy
and ultimately public investigations of the causes and blame for negligence. Maintenance involves
routine replacement of parts, regularly scheduled service, repair of worn surfaces in pavements,
and other actions necessary to maintain the vehicle or facility in a serviceable condition.
Maintenance also involves data management for work activities and project scheduling as well as
the analysis of maintenance activities to assure that they are carried out appropriately and
economically. The transportation engineer is responsible for selecting maintenance strategies and
schedules, forecasting maintenance cycles, managing risk, handling tort liability, evaluating the
economic costs of maintenance programs, testing new products, and scheduling maintenance
personnel and equipment.

4. Transportation Engineering
Transportation engineering is the profession responsible for the planning, design, construction,
operation, and maintenance of transportation infrastructure. The field includes highways, airports,
runways, railroad stations and tracks, bridges and waterways, drainage facilities, ports and harbors,
and rail or bus transit systems. Employment opportunities exist in these areas with federal
transportation agencies, state government, special transportation authorities, consulting firms,
railroad or airline companies, private industry, and professional associations. While this
employment sector has been linked to civil engineering, transportation professionals often have
academic training in other engineering disciplines, such as mechanical, electrical, aerospace, and
information technology. In addition to a basic understanding of transportation principles, the
transportation engineer must be broadly educated with knowledge about engineering
fundamentals, science, statistics, oral and written communications, computers, economics, history,
and social sciences. Typically, the modern transportation engineer has completed a bachelor’s
degree in engineering and a master’s or doctorate in a transportation specialty.
Transportation engineers are typically employed by the agency responsible for building and
maintaining a transportation system, such as the federal, state, or local government, a railroad, or
a transit authority. They also work for consulting firms that carry out the planning and engineering
tasks for these organizations. During the past century, transportation engineers have been
employed to build the nation’s railroads, the interstate highway system, and rapid transit systems
in major cities, airports, and turnpikes. Each decade has seen a new national need for improved
transportation services.
 It can be expected that in the twenty-first century, heavy emphasis will be placed on the
rehabilitation of the highway system, including its surfaces and bridges, as well as on devising a
means to ensure improved safety and utilization of the existing system through traffic control,
information technology, and systems management. Highway construction will be required,
particularly in suburban areas. Building of roads, highways, airports, and transit systems is likely
to accelerate in less-developed countries, and the transportation engineer will be called on to
furnish the services necessary to plan, design, build, and operate highway systems throughout the
world.

1. Travel Demand
The basic purpose of transportation planning and management is to match transportation supply
with travel demand, which represents the need for transportation infrastructure. A thorough
understanding of existing travel pattern is necessary for identifying and analyzing existing traffic-
related problems. Detailed data on current travel pattern and traffic volumes are also needed for
developing travel forecasting / prediction models. The prediction of future travel demand is an
essential task of the long-range transportation planning process for determining strategies for
accommodating future needs. These strategies may include land use policies, pricing programs,
and expansion of transportation supply—highways and transit service.
There are different levels of planning, directed to different types of problems. The terminology for
these levels of planning and analysis varies according to the context. For example, the expressions
‘‘micro,’’ ‘‘meso,’’ and ‘‘macro’’ are sometimes used to describe the level of detail or the size of
an area used for an analysis. Similarly, the expressions ‘‘site-specific,’’ ‘‘corridor,’’ and ‘‘area-
wide’’ or ‘‘metropolitan’’ are used to describe variations in the scope of a problem. The approach
and techniques for analyzing and forecasting travel would vary according to the level of analysis.
Even for a particular level of analysis, the techniques may have to be adjusted to match the
constraints of available data and human resources.
An example of a micro-level or site-specific analysis is the case of a congested road intersection.
In this case traffic engineers would be interested in detailed traffic flow characteristics, including
turning movements of vehicles along each approach and pedestrian volumes across each approach.
Management strategies in this case would involve traffic operation and roadway design-oriented
techniques. A corridor-level analysis, on the other hand, would cover a larger area, say 10 miles
long and 2 miles wide. A major highway with severe congestion problem may require a corridor
analysis. The origin and destination of trips and modal choice of travelers would be of interest in
this case. Station-to-station movements of passengers may have to be estimated in the case of a
rapid transit service along the corridor. At the macro level the concern may be total energy
consumption by the transportation sector or the total emission of an air pollutant; for these cases,
information on total vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) on each functional class of roads will be
needed.
It is important to recognize that the nature of problems to be examined dictates the level of planning
to be used as well as the technique for travel demand analysis. The discussion of this chapter will
be oriented mostly to meso scale or area-wide travel demand analysis that is commonly performed
in urban transportation planning studies. Even for this type of analysis for an urban area at the
meso scale, the approach and details of techniques and models to be used would depend on the
size of the area as well as the resources available for carrying out the work. For example, a small
urban area may not have the manpower or funding needed for carrying out large-scale surveys and
developing advanced mathematical models. The need for customizing the planning and modeling
approaches based on specific situations was discussed in detail by Grecco et al. (1976).

2. CHARACTERISTICS OF TRAVEL
Certain special characteristics of travel demand require recognition for planning and
design purposes. These are discussed in the following subtopics.
2.1. Spatial and Temporal Variations
The total magnitude of travel demand alone is not sufficient for detailed planning and management
purposes. The spatial and temporal distributions of travel are also important items of information
to be considered in determining supply strategies. The peaking of travel at certain time periods
requires a level of transportation supply that is not needed at other times. However, due to the
nature of supply, which cannot be adjusted easily, large investments have to be made to provide
roadway or transit service capacities to accommodate peak period travel, and this capacity is not
utilized efficiently at other times. An imbalance in the directional distribution of travel also creates
similar inefficiencies.
The spatial orientation of trips has important influence on supply requirements and costs. A few
typical spatial distribution patterns of trips in urban areas are listed below:
• Travel along dense corridors, which are usually radial connecting suburbs to central business
district (CBD)
• Diffused travel pattern caused by urban sprawl
• Suburb to suburb or circumferential travel
• Travel within large activity centers in CBD and suburbs
Different modes of transportation may be needed to serve these different travel patterns. For
example, fixed-route public transit service usually is efficient for concentrated travel along a dense
corridor, but it is not ideally suited to serve a diffused travel pattern in a cost-effective manner.

Choice of domicile and workplace, lifestyles and different travel needs of individuals and families
make the comprehension of trip-making characteristics of a large metro area very complex. These
complexities may be illustrated through trips made by a typical household on a given weekday.
Assume that this household has four members, including two children who go to grade school, and
two cars. It can be seen that there are at least 11 trips made by this household at different times of
day. Most of the trips are auto trips, and two trips are taken in the walk mode. Travel demand
modeling attempts to capture such spatial and temporal variations in travel at an aggregate level,
such as a zone, in which a number of households, businesses, and offices exist.
2.2. Classification of Travel by Trip Purpose and Market Segments
Trip purposes such as work, shopping, and social recreation, and trip-maker’s characteristics such
as income and car ownership, are important factors influencing the elasticity of demand, reflecting
its sensitivity with respect to travel time and cost. For example, work trips may be more likely to
use public transit for a given level of service than trips of other trip purposes.
For a metropolitan study, it is useful to classify travel according to spatial orientation and trip
purpose as shown in Figure. The concept of market segmentation is applicable to the classification
of travel based on trip purpose, trip-makers’ characteristics, and spatial-temporal concentration.
This concept is used in the field of marketing for developing different types of consumer products
targeted to match different tastes and preferences of potential users /buyers of these products. The
concept of market segmentation is applicable to public transportation planning. A single type of
transit service is not suitable for all transit market segments. For example, express buses may be
needed for a commuter market segment. Taxicabs serve a different market segment. Woodruff et
al. (1981) examined this subject in depth.

3. UNITS FOR MEASURING TRAVEL DEMAND

Travel demand is measured and expressed in different ways for different types of analysis.
Examples of different units of measurement are:
1. Trip (between two areas)
2. Trip end (in a given area)
3. Traffic volume (on a road segment)
4. Person trip and vehicle trip
5. Passenger vehicle and freight vehicle
6. Person-miles traveled and vehicle-miles traveled
The definition of each of these units should be understood clearly and an appropriate unit of
measurement should be used to match the case being analyzed. For example, for a parking study,
trip end is the appropriate unit for expressing parking demand. For estimating the number of lanes
to be provided in a road segment, the demand should be expressed in terms of traffic volume. As
pointed out earlier, the appropriate unit of travel for estimating fuel consumption and/or air
pollution attributable to transportation is vehicle-miles traveled (VMT).
4. MEASURING EXISTING TRAVEL
Detailed information on existing travel is needed for two purposes: analyzing existing problems
and developing mathematical models for forecasting travel. A variety of surveys can be performed
for gathering information related to existing travel demand. However, travel surveys are expensive,
and therefore care must be taken to identify the types of information that really would be useful
for specific purposes, and then the most suitable procedures should be selected for gathering the
information. Sampling techniques are useful, and adequate time and care must be devoted to
developing sampling procedures. There are several different types of survey techniques, some of
which are suitable for automobile travel, some for transit travel, and some for general passenger
movement. Survey procedures for freight vehicles and commodity movements may be very
different in certain respects from those of passenger travel. Good references for travel demand-
related survey techniques are Dresser and Pearson (1994), Stopher and Metcalf (1996), and Travel
Survey Manual (Cambridge Systematics, Inc. and Barton-Aschman Associates, Inc. 1996).
4.1. Time Frame for Travel Surveys
Since travel demand varies during a given year according to the season (or month of year) and day
of week, a decision must be made carefully to select a specific time frame or reference for surveys.
For urban transportation studies it is a common practice to develop travel demand information for
an average weekday in the fall. However, the time can be different based on the nature of the
problem to be analyzed. For example, in the case of a tourist-oriented urban area the major concern
may be traffic problems during weekend days or holidays, and surveys may be done to capture
information for one of those days. A few major types of surveys are discussed in the following
sections.
4.2. Origin-Destination Surveys
The classification of trips into the three classes of internal, external-internal (and vice versa), and
through trips is useful for meso-scale and metropolitan-level as well as small-area studies. This
classification scheme is useful for developing forecasting procedures/models as well as policies
and strategies for accommodating travel because strategies for each of these classes of travel would
be different. For example, through trips may require a bypass facility. External-internal trips may
have to be intercepted before they reach a heavily congested area such as the central business
district (CBD).
The origins and destinations (O-D) of trips along with some other characteristics such as trip
purpose and mode of travel can be determined in different ways:
1. Home interviews (for internal travel)
2. Roadside interviews at cordon stations (for external-internal and through trips)
3. On-board survey on transit vehicles
All three of these techniques involve sampling and require careful planning before their execution.
The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA 1975b) and Urban Transportation Systems
Associates (1972) developed detailed guidelines for O-D survey procedures. The reliability of the
results of an O-D survey depends on its sampling scheme and sample size, and this issue was
examined by Makowski, Chatterjee, and Sinha (1974).
Full-scale origin-destination surveys were widely used during the 1960s and 1970s to develop a
variety of information, including ‘‘desire lines’’ of travel. Their use has decreased because of the
cost and also due to the use of synthetic or borrowed disaggregate travel models, which require
less survey data.
4.3. Traffic Volume and Passenger Counts
For determining the use of various roadway facilities and assessing their level of service, vehicle
counts are taken at selected locations along roadways. Short-count techniques are useful provided
appropriate expansion factors are developed based on previous or ongoing research on fluctuations
of traffic by hour, weekday, and month. All state Departments of Transportation (DOTs) have
extensive programs for gathering traffic volume data on an annual basis. These vehicle counts
usually are taken with machines.
For urban transportation studies screen lines and cut-lines are established in the study area to select
traffic count locations and take counts in an organized manner so that the major travel movements
can be measured and analyzed. These counts are also used for checking the results of travel
forecasting models. Similarly, traffic counts are taken at special traffic generators such as airports
and large colleges and universities to capture their unique travel-generating characteristics.
For analyzing the use of a transit service, passenger counts are taken on-board transit vehicles
and/or at selected stops or stations. These passenger counts usually are taken by observers who are
assigned to specific transit vehicles and/or transit stops / stations according to a survey plan.

5. FORECASTING FUTURE DEMAND

The need for travel demand forecasts arises in various contexts of planning, short-range as well as
long-range. Travel forecasting is one of the most important and difficult tasks of transportation
planning. There are different types of travel prediction techniques, and the one to be used in a
particular case must be compatible with the nature of the problem and scope of planning.
Constraints of available time and resource also influence the selection of a technique.
5.1. Predicting Response to Service Changes Using Elasticity Coefficients
For short-range planning or a transportation systems management (TSM) study, it is often
necessary to predict the effect of a proposed change in transportation service that can be
implemented in the near future. For example, a planner may be asked to evaluate the impact on
transit ridership of improving transit service in a travel corridor by providing increased frequency
and/or limited stop service. The impact of changing the fare structure on transit ridership may also
be of interest. In these cases demand elasticity coefficients, if available from past studies, would
be useful. Typically an elasticity coefficient is developed with respect to a specific factor such as
travel time or fare based on actual observation. The coefficient should exclude the effect of other
factors that also may be influencing demand at the same time. Mayworm, Lago, and McEnroe
(1980) give information on demand elasticity models. More information on the elasticity of transit
use with respect fare may be found in Parody and Brand (1979) and Hamberger and Chatterjee
(1987).
5.2. Stated Preference Surveys and Concept Tests for Forecasting
For transit planning it is sometimes necessary to ask people about their preferences and their likes
and dislikes for various service characteristics. These surveys are used for determining how to
improve an existing service and/or designing a new service, and also for forecasting ridership on
a new service. These attitudinal and stated-preference surveys need sound statistical design for
selecting the sample and analyzing the results. A discussion on stated preference survey may be
found in the Travel Survey Manual. In the field of marketing, concept tests are performed for
estimating the potential demand for a new consumer product, and this approach can be extended
to ridership forecasts for new/innovative transit services.
Hartgen and Keck (1976) describe a survey-based method of forecasting ridership on a new dial-
a-bus service. The interpretation of results of opinion-based surveys must be done carefully in
order to account for any bias reflected in apparent results. Chatterjee, McAdams, and Wegmann
(1983) present a case study involving noncommitment bias in public opinion on the anticipated
usage of a new transit service.
5.3. Forecasting Future Travel on Road Segments and/or Transit Lines
A variety of forecasting procedures are available, ranging from the extrapolation of past trends to
complex mathematical models involving several steps. A transportation planner must recognize
the advantages and disadvantages of each procedure. Two procedures are examined for illustration.
Direct Estimation of Traffic Volume by Trend Analysis. If traffic volume data are available for
a road segment or a transit line of interest for several years in the past, the historical trend can be
identified and extrapolated to estimate future volumes. This approach, of course, is appropriate if
the trend is expected to continue, which commonly is true for short-range forecasts. Trend-based
forecasts are appropriate also for aggregate values such as total VMT or transit rides in an urban
area. However, major changes in the land development pattern and/or transportation network can
cause substantial changes in the travel pattern, and if such changes are likely then trend
extrapolation will not be appropriate. Therefore, for long-range forecasts of traffic volumes on
individual segments of a road network or the number of passenger trips on individual transit routes,
trend analysis is not used.
Stepwise/Sequential Procedure. A widely used travel estimation procedure for long-range
forecasts of traffic volumes on a highway network uses several steps in a sequence, as shown in
the flowchart of the Figure below. Each step requires a particular type of model or procedure, and
there are different choices of models at each step. One of the major advantages of this procedure
is its ability to reflect several types of changes that may occur in the future:
1. Changes in trip-making rates
2. Changes in development pattern, resulting in altered travel pattern
3. Changes in transportation mode usage
4. Changes in transportation network
Another advantage of the stepwise, or sequential, procedure is that it generates several types of
useful information at the end of various steps. The disadvantage of the procedure is that it needs a
large amount of data for model development. It also requires a sound knowledge of one of the
available computer software models that is specially designed for developing and applying these
models. A great deal of research has been performed and is still being continued to improve this
stepwise modeling procedure. It should be acknowledged that the staff of the former Bureau of
Public Works and later the staff of the Federal Highway Administration and Urban Mass
Transportation Administration made tremendous contributions to the development of various
procedures and computer software. An historical overview of the development of planning and
modeling procedures in the United States is presented by Weiner (1992).
The stepwise procedure is popularly known as the four-step modeling process because it includes
four major steps: trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice, and traffic assignment.
Additionally, network analysis must be done to develop a few types of information that are needed
for the other steps. These steps and procedures involved with each are discussed in detail in the
following sections.
1. TRIP GENERATION
Trip generation is a very important step because it sets up not only the framework for the following
tasks but also some of the controlling values, such as the total number of trips generated in the
study area by location and trip purpose. The commonly used units for trip generation analysis
usually include a household, a dwelling unit (DU), and a business establishment. However, the
results of a trip generation analysis for a study area are aggregated based on larger areas known as
traffic zones.
A typical classification scheme of trips used for trip generation analysis is presented in the previous
Figure. A detailed discussion of this classification scheme is presented by Chatterjee, Martinson,
and Sinha (1977). A thorough analysis of all these types of trips shown in the figure requires a
large amount of data. These data are collected by using origin-destination (O-D) surveys, discussed
briefly in an earlier section. This section will focus primarily on trip generation models for internal
passenger trips made by households.

2. Models for Internal Passenger Trips: Aggregate and Disaggregate Models

The goal of trip generation models for internal passenger trips is to estimate the total number of
trip ends for each purpose generated in each traffic zone based on socioeconomic and/or land use
data for the respective zones. This task can be accomplished with either aggregate or disaggregate
models. For aggregate models the total number of trips (trip ends) generated in a zone is used as
the dependent variable, whereas for disaggregate models trips made by a household (or a business
establishment) are used as the dependent variable. When disaggregate models are used, the trip
ends generated by households and/or any other trip generating units such as business
establishments in a zone are combined to produce the zonal (total) value. Both disaggregate and
aggregate trip generation models are used in planning studies.
3. Trip Generation by Households
Household-generated trips comprise more than 80 percent of all trips in an urban area. Trips by
nonresidents and a variety of other vehicles, including commercial vehicles such as taxis and
trucks, and public utility and public service vehicles comprise the remaining portion of total travel.
For the purpose of modeling, the trips generated by households are classified as home-based and
non-home-based. Home-based trips have one end, either origin or destination, located at the home
zone of the trip maker. If both ends of a trip are located in zones where the trip maker does not
live, it is considered a non-home-based trip.
Definitions of Productions and Attractions and Trip Purpose. Because of the predominance of
home-based trips in an urban area, the model development is simplified if it is assumed that the
home end of a trip is a production (P) in the zone of the trip maker’s residence irrespective of
whether it represents the origin or destination of the trip. According to this approach, the non-home
end of a home-based trip is considered to be attraction (A). For a non-home-based trip, which has
neither its origin nor its destination at the trip maker’s residence, production and attraction are
synonymous with origin and destination, respectively. This definition of productions (P’s) and
attractions (A’s) is depicted in Figure 7.4. It should be noted that for home-based trips the activity
at the non-home end determines the trip purpose, and that non-home-based trips usually are not
further stratified by purpose.
4. Cross-Classification or Category Models for Household Trip Generation
Household trip rates have been found to vary significantly according to certain socioeconomic
characteristics and the size of a household. Household characteristics that have been found to be
significant for trip generation and are commonly used in trip generation models are:
1. Household size
2. Auto ownership
3. Income
A hypothetical example of a trip generation model for households is presented in Table 7.1, which
includes trip production rates for different types or categories of households defined in terms of
different combinations of household size and auto ownership. This type of model is referred to as
a cross-classification or category models, and such models are used widely for estimating trip
production by households.
Alternative techniques for a statistical analysis of these models are discussed by Chatterjee and
Khasnabis (1973). When the households in a traffic zone are cross-classified by size and auto
ownership, total trips made by households in a zone for a specific purpose (P) = Summation of
(No. of households of a category) x (Trip rate for households of that category and for that specific
purpose). In mathematical notation this relationship is shown below:

The choice of household characteristics to be used for developing the various categories for trip
production rates may vary from one study to another. One advantage of disaggregate models is
that for developing these models a full-scale O-D survey is not needed. A carefully selected small
sample of households may be used for developing trip production rates as long as the number of
cases for each category, or cell of the matrix, is statistically adequate.
5. Models for Trip Attractions
It is a common practice to use aggregate models in the form of regression equations for trip
attractions. The dependent variable for these aggregate models is the total number of trip
attractions for a specific trip purpose in a traffic zone. The independent variables usually are
employment-related, and they represent zonal total values. Hypothetical examples of trip attraction
(A) models are presented below:
The development of aggregate models usually requires a full-scale O-D survey. The coefficients
of the regression equations will vary from area to area. The choice of independent variables and
trip-purpose categories also may vary from one study to another.

The development of aggregate models usually requires a full-scale O-D survey. The coefficients
of the regression equations will vary from area to area. The choice of independent variables and
trip-purpose categories also may vary from one study to another.
6. Balancing of Productions and Attractions
Due to the definition of productions and attractions, home-based productions in a zone may not be
equal to the corresponding attractions in the same zone. Non-home-based productions in a zone
should be equal to corresponding attractions in the same zone. However, area-wide (total)
productions (P’s) of any trip purpose—home-based or non-home-based—should be equal to the
corresponding area-wide (total) attractions. Thus,

When synthetic or borrowed models are used, the estimated area-wide (total) productions would
not be equal to the estimated area-wide (total) attractions. Therefore, to achieve a balance, zonal
attractions are adjusted proportionately such that the adjusted area-wide attractions equal area-
wide productions. Adjustment or scaling factors for attractions are calculated as follows:
7. Commercial Vehicle Traffic in an Urban Area
It should be pointed out that although internal trips made by residents in passenger vehicles account
for a large proportion of total trips in an urban area, the other categories of trips must not be
overlooked. The classification scheme presented in previous Figure shows the other categories.
The proportion of each category of trips varies according to the size and other characteristics of an
urban area. For example, the proportion of through trips is usually larger in smaller size areas. In
some cases, trips of one or more of these other categories may be the cause of major problems and
thus will require special attention. For example, through traffic may be the major issue in the case
of a small or medium-sized urban area, and the planners may have to analyze these trips
thoroughly. Similarly, the movement of large trucks may be of major interest in some urban areas.
A comprehensive study should pay attention to travel demand of all categories, although the level
of detail may vary.
The analysis of commercial vehicle travel has been neglected in most urban transportation studies.
These vehicles are garaged in nonresidential locations and include trucks of all sizes, taxicabs,
rental cars, service vehicles of plumbers and electricians, etc. There are a few useful references on
how to estimate truck traffic in urban areas, including an article by Chatterjee et al. (1979), Ogden
(1992), and Fischer (2001).
8. Forecasting Variables Used in Trip Generation Models
In developing trip generation models the availability of data for the independent variables of the
models is an important issue that can influence the selection of a variable. Usually the availability
of data for the base year is less problematic than that for future years. Of course, if data for an
independent variable are not available for the base year, they cannot be used in model
development. However, what the model developer must recognize before building and adopting a
model is whether the independent variables used in the model can be forecast by the responsible
planning agency, and if such forecasts would be very difficult then it may be desirable to avoid
using those variables in the model. Sometimes transportation planners have to develop a procedure
or model to be used for making such forecasts.
Usually aggregate values of socioeconomic parameters used in trip generation models are not very
difficult to forecast with the existing state of the art. The difficulty usually involves the task of
disaggregating socioeconomic data at the zonal level. For example, it may not be very difficult to
predict the total number of households in each zone along with their average size and auto
ownership. However, it would be difficult to cross-classify the predicted number of households in
a zone according to specific categories based on household size and auto ownership. Similarly,
predicting the average income of households in individual traffic zones may not be very difficult,
but developing a breakdown of the households in every zone by income groups would be difficult.
The disaggregate trip generation models thus present a challenge to planners for making detailed
forecasts of socioeconomic characteristics for future years. In order to provide assistance for
making forecasts in a disaggregate form, a few procedures have been developed, and examples of
such household stratification models can be found in Chatterjee, Khasnabis, and Slade (1977) and
FHWA (1975a).