2-30 Full
2-30 Full
2-30 Full
China
中華人民共和国
Afghanistan
アフガニスタン Peshawar Islamabad
イスラマバード
ペシャワール Rawalpindi
ラワルピンディ
Project
プロジェクトSites
サイト ラホール
Lahore
パキスタン ネパール
Nepal
インド
カラチ
1.1 Background
Pakistan borders the countries of India, Iran, Afghanistan, and China. It is 796,000 km2
in area, which is roughly double the size of Japan. The population is 150 million people,
approximately 1.2 times that of Japan. Pakistan’s main industries are agriculture and
cotton production.
The country’s domestic transportation network is formed mainly around the
north-south corridor that connects the major cities where people and industries are
concentrated: Karachi, the southern city which handles over 90% of the country’s trade;
Peshawar, the major northern city; and Islamabad, the capital city. Of these, the railway
has approximately 8,600 operating kilometers1, and the main part of it connects Karachi
and Peshawar. In the late 1950s, the railway played an important role in freight and
passenger transport in Pakistan, handling 73% of the domestic freight transport and 42%
of the domestic passenger transport. However, starting in the 1980s, railway became
unable to keep pace with the increasing demand for transportation, and its transport
volume ceased to rise as the rate of operation dropped annually 2 mainly due to
superannuation and lack of sufficient locomotives3
1
“Operating kilometers” refers to the distance traveled by commercial transportation such as railways and
buses on regular routes. The operating kilometers of Pakistan Railway are approximately 30% that of Japan.
2
The target operation rate (percentage of days in operation annually, excluding the days spent in the factory
for maintenance) of Pakistan Railway’s locomotives is 85%, but in FY1991, it had dropped to approximately
75%.
3
In the early 1980s, Pakistan Railway had approximately 490 electric diesel locomotives, which were the
main type of locomotive in use, but over half of those had surpassed their durable lifespan.
1
1.2 Objectives
The project’s objective was to boost the capacity of railway transport which plays an
important role in long-distance transport by carrying out the manufacture and
rehabilitation of electric diesel locomotives, thereby providing infrastructure for
economic growth.
2.Evaluation Results
2.1 Relevance
Since the 6th 5-year plan (1983-1988), the securing of rail transport capacity and
rational distribution of traffic between railways and roads was emphasized in Pakistan’s
transportation policy. At the time of appraisal, emphasis was placed on recovery of the
share of the railway, which was relatively more dominant than roads in long-distance
high-volume transport, and an important issue was to renew the decrepit infrastructure,
such as locomotives and rails. These two projects, which were responsive to the above
issues, were both included in the 8th 5-year plan (1993-1998). They were given high
priority at the time of the appraisal because of its urgency.
In the current 10-year plan (2001-2011), recovery of the railway’s share in
long-distance, high-volume freight transport continues to be the most important issue in
the transportation sector. In this 10-year plan, 46% of the public investment in the railway
sector over 10 years is allotted to locomotive-related investment. This is roughly the same
level of investment as in the 8th 5-year plan (1993-1998). Therefore, the importance of
this project at the national policy level is still retained. However, the railway’s freight
2
transport volume has declined considerably. Causes of the decline include less efficient
freight transport as is visible in the reduced train speed, management of train service, and
time delays, etc. As a result, the quality of service has declined. Moreover, passenger
transport volume increased by only about 1%, but the market share declined (Figure 1).
50
40 Passenger
Freight
30
20
10
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
2.2 Efficiency
2.2.1 Output
(1) Diesel Electric Locomotives Rehabilitation Project (1)
In this project, the plan was to rehabilitate a total of 54 locomotives, consisting of 48
US locomotives and 6 Japanese locomotives (including replacement of general parts and
equipment such as the engine, generator, brake system, electric controls, and rail trucks).
As a result, a total of 54 locomotives were rehabilitated almost according to plan, but
there were some changes in model types out of consideration for the physical condition of
locomotives or the standardization of model types. Also, because the locomotive
manufacturers had stopped producing engines, the project was forced to procure
expensive engines from other companies because the locomotive manufactures had
stopped producing engines. For that reason, procurement of new parts was reduced in
order to keep rehabilitation costs within budget, and the scope of the parts replacement
was reduced below the level planned. Furthermore, the rehabilitation work was carried
out mainly at Moghalpura locomotive repair factory in Lahore, and part of the
rehabilitation work was carried out at Risalpur locomotive factory which was constructed
by a different Yen loan project.
3
(PKD), and 10 Complete Knock Downs (CKD)). In addition, it was planned to provide
overseas training concerning assembly and manufacture to Pakistan Railway employees
in engineering service. As a result, the project was implemented almost as planned, and
30 US locomotives were procured (model: AGE-30, 3300-horsepower; including 10
complete locomotives, 10 PKD, and 10 CKD). The assembly and manufacturing work
was carried out at the Risalpur locomotive factory.
4
increases in customs’ tax, etc., but because the value of the local currency, rupees,
dropped considerably against the yen during the project implementation, the total project
cost increased only slightly on a yen basis.
2.3 Effectiveness
2.3.1 Usage and Operation of Locomotives
The 48 US locomotives (new model: GRU-204)
which were rehabilitated in the Diesel Electric
Locomotives Rehabilitation Project (1) were
gradually put into service between 1996 and 1999.
Immediately after the locomotives went into service
(1998), the operation rate was 91%, which
exceeded the planned rate of 85%. Also, the
operational efficiency (i.e. the distance traveled per US locomotive being rehabilitated
day by each locomotive), at 550 km/day per train, was more than twice the average
operational efficiency of the Pakistan Railways, which was 263 km/day per train.
However, because many used parts were used in the engine rehabilitation for 30 of the 48
locomotives, parts replacement became necessary again 2 years after the rehabilitation,
and the operational efficiency dropped to 259 km/day per train in 2003, which was close
to the average level of the Pakistan Railways. The operation rate of 6 Japanese
locomotives was 75%, and the operation efficiency was 283 km/day per train; both
exceed the average of the Pakistan Railways.
Looking next at the 30 US locomotives (model: AGE-30) procured in the Diesel
Electric Locomotives Production Project (2), these locomotives were gradually put into
service between 1998 and 2001. According to the Pakistan Railway, the AGE-30 has the
best performance, with a maximum speed of 125 km/h, among all the diesel electric
locomotives owned by the Pakistan Railways. The AGE-30’s average operation rate up to
now, at 88.5%, exceeds the planned level, and its operational efficiency, at 762.8 km/day
(2003), is approximately triple the average. The average number of days spent in
maintenance was 42 days annually, which is less than the 55 days that was planned.
4
The ALU model was renamed GRU following rehabilitation.
5
Durable life is 20 years for new locomotives and 15 years for rehabilitated locomotives.
5
locomotives had increased. This project provided a total of 84 locomotives to the Pakistan
Railway, and these constituted 16% of all the locomotives (539 locomotives) owned by
the Pakistan Railway in 2004. The locomotives provided by this project constitute 30% of
the 281 locomotives whose durable life has not expired, and so these locomotives are
playing a large role in slowing the aging of the fleet.
600
500
400 223 258
300 耐用年数を超えた機関車数
Locomotives past their durable life
200 197 Locomotives within durable life (excluding these projects’
耐用年数内の機関車数(評価対象両事業を除く)
304 locomotives)
100
84 耐用年数内の機関車数(評価対象両事業)
Locomotives within durable life (these projects’ locomotives)
0
1994
1994年 2004
2004年
6
Locomotives Production Project (2), the fact that the operational efficiency was triple the
average of all locomotives appears to be a factor in the higher FIRR. The conditions for
the calculation of FIRR at the appraisal are as follow.
2.3.5 Summary
The outcome which this project aimed at was “to boost the capacity of railway
transport.” The locomotives manufactured and rehabilitated by these two projects
constitute one-third of the main force of locomotives (i.e. those within their durable lives)
owned by the Pakistan Railway, and so they are playing an important role in the
maintenance of the railway’s transport capacity.
Looking at rate of operation and operational efficiency, the AGE-30 locomotives newly
introduced by Diesel Electric Locomotives Production Project (2) are displaying
7
In the recalculation, fare income was regarded as a benefit that reverted 100% to locomotives, in
accordance with the conditions at the time of appraisal. The following results were obtained when the
recalculations were done again using more realistic conditions, where 50% of the fare income is a benefit
that reverts to locomotives, and the other 50% is invested in areas other than locomotives, such as passenger
cars, rails, etc.
Diesel Electric Locomotives Rehabilitation Project (1) FIRR and EIRR were both negative
Diesel Electric Locomotives Production Project (2) FIRR=14.4% EIRR=24.8%
8
In calculation of the EIRR, shadow rates were used for benefits that were the same an in FIRR.
7
extremely outstanding performance and are operating efficiently. On the other hand, there
was an early decline in the efficiency of the GRU-20 locomotives in Diesel Electric
Locomotives Rehabilitation Project (1) where many used parts were utilized in
rehabilitation due to budget limitations. These newly rehabilitated locomotives did not
display the performance that was expected of them.
2.4 Impact
(1) Contribution to Railway Transport
The total annual distance traveled by the 48 US locomotives (GRU-20) that were
rehabilitated by the Diesel Electric Locomotives Rehabilitation Project (1) was 4.54
million km (FY2003), which accounts for 12.0% of all Pakistan Railway’s diesel electric
locomotives. Of the 48 locomotives, 40% are used for freight transport and 60% for
passenger transport. The estimated transport volume (FY2003) is 2.45 billion
passenger-kilometers (11% of the total) and 820 million ton freight-kilometers (17% of
the total). No data could be obtained for the 6 rehabilitated Japanese locomotives.
Meanwhile, the total annual distance traveled by the US locomotives (AGE-30) which
were procured in Diesel Electric Locomotives Production Project (2) was 8.35 million km
(FY2002), or 22% of the total. Their estimated transport volume is 6.7 billion
passenger-kilometers, or 30% of Pakistan Railway’s total9. Hence, they comprise the core
of passenger transport. At the time of appraisal, the 30 procured locomotives were all to
be used for freight trains, but currently all 30 are operating as long-distance limited
express trains because the Pakistan Railways gives preference to locomotives that have
reliable performance to passenger trains, where speedy and timely service is required.
As seen above, the total of 78 locomotives introduced by both projects are contributing
considerably to rail transport in Pakistan, accounting for 35% of the distance traveled by
locomotives of the Pakistan Railway in FY2002, as well as 41% of passenger transport
volume and 17% of freight transport volume (Figure 3). Their contribution to passenger
transport volume is particularly large, and it is estimated that a total of 30 million people
annually ride on trains pulled by the locomotives procured by these projects
9
6.7 billion passenger-kilometers is equivalent to approximately one-sixth of the Tokaido Shinkansen’s
passenger-kilometers in the same year.
8
Figure 3: Contribution of the Rehabilitated and Manufactured Locomotives
for Railway Transport
機関車走行距離(キロ)
Locomotive distance traveled (km) Passenger transport volume
旅客輸送量 貨物輸送量(トン・キロ)
Freight transport volume (ton-km)
23%
30%
59%
65%
83%
GRU-2048 locomotives
GRU-20, 48両 AGE-3030 locomotives
AGE-30, 30両 その他の機関車
Other locomotives
2.5 Sustainability
2.5.1 Executing Agency
2.5.1.1 Technical Capacity
There is room for the Pakistan Railway to make technical improvements in its
management of operations data and train service management, and this is one factor in the
low level of rail transport volume. However, no technical issues that directly affect the
sustainability of this project were observed.
9
were thought to be more achievable. The Pakistani Government’s intentions for the
reform are clearer than previously, but resistance from the Ministry of Railways and
insiders at the national railway is strong, making the outcome unpredictable.
handled at the Central Repair Shop (e.g. car bodies damaged in accidents and repair or
manufacture of rail trucks, etc.) are handled at the Risalpur locomotive production
factory.
The Pakistan Railways has a high level of technological capacity as shown by the fact
that it also has the capacity to manufacture some spare parts by itself. However, due to the
large number of models and financial limitations, it is not easy to procure the necessary
spare parts for overhaul and repair, and so used parts are often utilized in the maintenance
and repair of electric diesel locomotives. Nevertheless, with the improvement of financial
status, as stated above, there are no major problems for the sustainability of the
12
Fare income per kilometer traveled in 1996 was 155.2 rupees for passenger transport and 469.6 rupees for
freight transport. The reasons why the earnings of passenger transport are low include the fact that Pakistan
Railway suppresses the passenger fare so that it is competitive with bus fare and the fact that unprofitable
train lines have not been closed.
13 The fast trains which were reinforced during 2002 to 2004 are: 1) Lahore – Karachi, 2) Lahore
– Faisalabad, 3) Rawalpindi – Quetta, 4) Sialkot – Rawalpindi, 5) Lahore – Rawalpindi, 6)
Faisalabad – Karachi, 7) Multan – Faisalbad.
14 The total income in FY2004 was 18 billion rupees, which is 27% increase of that in FY2003. Above all,
the income from the passenger transportation was 9.3 billion rupees, the highest in the history of Pakistan
Railways.
10
locomotives which are rehabilitated or manufactured under this project.
Table 1: Income and Expenditures of the Pakistan Railway (unit: million rupees)
Item 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Income 11,953 13,340 14,607 14,568 18,022
Passengers 5,602 6,395 7,163 7,939 9,285
Freight 4,576 4,751 4,802 4,343 5,285
Postal and Packages 439 576 540 744 910
Other 1,336 1,618 2,102 1,542 2,542
Expenditures 20,254 21,247 22,467 20,579 20,574
General Administrative Costs 1,700 1,693 1,904 2,304 2,207
Maintenance and Repair Costs for Rails,
4,225 4,746 5,298 5,357 4,962
Buildings, Train Cars, etc.
Operating Expenses (fuel cost, personnel
5,074 4,983 5,644 5,967 6,331
expenses, etc.)
Pension Fund and Health and Welfare Costs 2,858 3,052 3,015 3,094 3,095
Interest Payments 2,513 2,399 3,394 2,096 2,117
Repayment (bank overdrafts, foreign loans) 3,190 4,334 3,071 1,410 1,274
Amortization Fund, etc. 694 40 141 351 588
Difference - 8,301 - 7,907 - 7,860 - 6,011 - 2,552
Source: Ministry of Railways
Note: 2004 figures are provisional.
3.Feedback
3.1 Lessons Learned
The scope of rehabilitation in this project was reduced because of difficulties in
procuring spare parts due to a rise in costs that was hard to predict beforehand. The
rehabilitation was technically inadequate, and the expected results were not obtained.
These caused a need for parts replacements shortly after the rehabilitation, and that
resulted in increase of the maintenance cost. Therefore, in order to effectively carry out
rehabilitation of locomotives, it is important to set an appropriate scope for the work and
to conduct a sufficient technical study, including the preparation of specifications by an
international consultant and strengthening of a check system.
3.2 Recommendations
The Pakistan Railway needs to conduct a market study focused on the recovery of
market share in long-distance, large-volume freight transport and to install strategic
infrastructure15, while it steadily promotes administrative reforms such as the formation
15
Currently the Pakistan Railways is studying the following five policies for improving freight transport.
1) Container and cargo special trains are being run as per time table in 40 to 45 hours between Karachi to
Lahore.
2) Agreements with freight forwarders are in process to attract additional traffic on regular basis.
3) Additional 15 locomotives are being inducted in freight pool.
4) Doubling of track from Lodhran to Khanewal (121km) will improve the turn round of coaches, wagons,
and locomotives.
11
of a state-owned enterprise and allowance of partial entry by private companies in train
service.
5) Procurement of 1,600 high capacity wagons of new generation will improve the turn round from 21 days
to 5 days..
In addition, it appears necessary to install infrastructure for signal lights and communications and to install
an MIS to enable collection of data for each sector and each train line, for use in management decisions.
12
Comparison of Original and Actual Scope
Diesel Electric Locomotives Rehabilitation Project (1)
Item Planned Actual Performance
1. Output Rehabilitation of 54 locomotive Rehabilitation of 54 locomotives
total total
ALU-1816:23 locomotives ALU-18:21 locomotives
ALU-20:25 locomotives ALU-20:27 locomotives
HAU-20:4 locomotives HAU-20:6 locomotives
HPU-20:2 locomotives HPU-20:0 locomotives
2. Project Period August 1993-March 1997 August 1993-December 1999
(44 months) (77 months)
3. Project Cost
Foreign Currency 5,324 million yen 5,673 million yen
Local Currency 2,915 million yen 3,098 million yen
(596 million rupees) (1,121 million rupees)
Total 8,239 million yen 8,771 million yen
ODA Loan Portion 6,011 million yen 5,673 million yen
Exchange Rate 1 rupees =4.9 yen (as of 1992) rupees=2.8 yen (average of 1994 to
1999)
16
The ALU model was renamed GLU after rehabilitation.
13