For immediate release Wednesday, October 15, 2008

October 2008
Franklin & Marshall
College Poll
PENNSYLVANIA
th
11 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
SURVEY
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

Prepared by:
Center for Opinion Research
Floyd Institute for Public Policy
Franklin & Marshall College

BERWOOD A. YOST
DIRECTOR, FLOYD INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY
DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH
HEAD METHODOLOGIST, FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL

G. TERRY MADONNA
DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR POLITICS AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS
DIRECTOR, FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL

BRAD A. NANKERVILLE
PROJECT MANAGER, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH
PROJECT MANAGER, FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL

KAY K. HUEBNER
PROGRAMMER, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH

October 15, 2008

Table of Contents

METHODOLOGY .......................................................................................................................... 2
KEY FINDINGS ............................................................................................................................. 4
TABLE A-1. PRESIDENTIAL VOTE CHOICE BY SELECTED DEMOGRAPHICS .......... 9
TABLE A-2. CONGRESSIONAL VOTE CHOICE BY SELECTED DEMOGRAPHICS .. 10
MARGINAL FREQUENCY REPORT....................................................................................... 11

Methodology
This release summarizes the findings of a survey of 586 registered adults

living in Pennsylvania’s 11th Congressional District conducted by Franklin and

Marshall College’s Center for Opinion Research. The survey interviewing was

conducted between October 8 and 12, 2008. The sample error for the entire

sample is plus or minus 4.0 percent but is larger for subgroups. Telephone

numbers for the survey were randomly selected from state voter registration lists.

The final sample includes 201 Republicans, 348 Democrats, and 36 adults

registered as Independent or something else. In addition to sampling error, this

poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally speaking,

two sources of error concern researchers most. Non-response bias is created

when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are

unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and

answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are

susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey

questions.

This survey used a registration-based sampling (RBS) scheme to identify

survey respondents. This sampling process uses voter lists and information about

2
past voting history and date of registration to classify voters into separate strata

based on historical turnout in similar, prior elections. Historical turnout

information determines the selection probabilities within each stratum. The

sample was generated by Voter Contact Services, and a more detailed description

of the RBS scheme can be found on their website

(http://www.vcsnet.com/rbshelp.html). A methodological study describing the

merits of the RBS technique in comparison to traditional random-digit-dialing

sampling methodologies can be found in Donald Green and Alan Gerber (2006)

“Can Registration-Based Sampling Improve the Accuracy of Mid-Term Election

Forecasts?” Public Opinion Quarterly, 70 (2): 197 – 223.

3
Key Findings
The latest Franklin and Marshall College Poll, conducted in

Pennsylvania’s 11th Congressional District, shows 12-term incumbent Democrat

Paul Kanjorski trailing Republican challenger Lou Barletta by five points, 40

percent to 35 percent. Barletta’s advantage has been nearly halved since

September, when he led Kanjorski by nine points. The 11th Congressional

District is a democratic-leaning district located in Northeastern Pennsylvania,

including the City of Scranton. John Kerry beat President Bush by six points in

2004 in the 11th CD and Al Gore beat President Bush by nine points there in 2000.

Congressman Kanjorski’s closest election to date was in 2002 when he beat

Barletta 56 percent to 42 percent.

Congressman Kanjorski faces several significant hurdles in his re-election

effort. First, less than two in five (35%) registered adults in the district believe he

deserves re-election, which is unchanged since September. Second, Kanjorski’s

support among registered Democrats remains weak; only half of Democrats are

planning to vote for him (Figure 1). Lou Barletta is supported by about two in

three Republicans and three in five independent voters.

4
 Figure 1. Pennsylvania 11th CD Vote Choice by Party Registration

September 2008
Kanjorski Barletta Other Don’t know

Republicans 11 69 21

Democrats 51 28 1 21

Independents/
Other 27 54 19

October 2008
Kanjorski Barletta Other Don’t know

Republicans 11 65 24

Democrats 52 23 1 24

Independents/
Other 11 60 29

5
 One advantage for Congressman Kanjorski is that economic concerns are

more frequently mentioned, and immigration is less frequently mentioned, as the

main issue driving congressional vote choice. About one in four (29%) registered

adults say the economy is the primary issue driving their congressional vote

choice, up from 21 percent in September, and only one in ten (12%) say

immigration is driving their vote (see Table 1). Kanjorski has a decided

advantage among those who are voting on economic issues while Barletta has a

clear advantage among those concerned about immigration. A second advantage

for Congressman Kanjorski is that President Bush’s approval ratings continue to

fall. Voters who rate the President lower are more likely to plan to vote for the

Congressman.

Table 1. Pennsylvania 11th CD Vote Choice by Main Issue

% of Cases Barletta Kanjorski Other DK

Economy 29% 31% 43% 1% 24%
Government, politicians 16% 57% 32% 0% 12%
Immigration, illegal immigration 12% 81% 7% 0% 12%
Taxes 5% 31% 31% 0% 38%
Health care, insurance 4% 23% 64% 0% 14%
Values, morality, religion 2% 54% 23% 0% 23%
Elder issues, social security 2% 10% 70% 0% 20%
Gasoline/oil prices, energy 1% 20% 0% 0% 80%
Education, school 1% 0% 75% 25% 0%
Iraq War 1% 14% 57% 0% 29%
Other 6% 59% 32% 0% 9%
Don’t know 23% 23% 37% 0% 40%

6
 The outcome of the Kanjorski-Barletta race remains uncertain because we

do not know which will matter more on election day: voters’ ratings of the

incumbent’s performance or their feelings about the economy and President.

Voters’ attitudes about the incumbent’s job performance provide an advantage for

his popular challenger. More voters than not believe there is need for

Congressional change and many voters have an unfavorable opinion of Kanjorski.

Yet, the political environment favors Democratic candidates—concerns about the

economy continue to rise and President Bush’s job approval ratings continue to

fall—and this could help the incumbent overcome his low performance ratings.

7
 The Presidential Race

Barack Obama leads John McCain in the 11th Congressional District, 46

percent to 37 percent, with about 14 percent undecided. Obama’s advantage is

larger among likely voters, 50 percent to 38 percent. Obama and McCain garner

similar levels of support from their partisans (see Figure 2). Obama has a sizable

lead among women. McCain leads among Protestants, and Obama leads among

Catholics (see Table A-1). By far, the economy is the primary issue driving voter

preferences in the presidential election (53%).

Figure 2. Presidential Vote Choice in PA 11th by Party Registration

September 2008
Obama McCain Other Don’t know

Republicans 10 77 1 12

Democrats 65 17 3 15

Independents/
Other 31 47 8 14

October 2008
Obama McCain Other Don’t know

Republicans 14 69 3 14

Democrats 67 17 2 14

Independents/
Other 29 49 9 14

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 Table A-1. Presidential Vote Choice by Selected Demographics (PA 11th CD)
If the November general election for president were being held today and the candidates were
(rotated) John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, and Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the
Democrats, would you vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, some
other candidate, or aren't you sure how you would vote?

McCain/Palin Obama/Biden Other DK

Gender*
Male 44% 43% 3% 10%
Female 32% 49% 2% 16%
Age
18-34 32% 58% 0% 11%
35-54 37% 46% 4% 14%
55 and over 38% 46% 2% 14%
Education*
High School or Less 33% 46% 3% 18%
Some College 38% 43% 4% 15%
College Degree 42% 50% 1% 7%
Household Income
Less than $35,000 30% 49% 3% 18%
$35-75,000 39% 46% 3% 13%
Over $75,000 43% 43% 2% 11%
Race
White 37% 46% 3% 14%
Non-white 25% 75% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Married 40% 45% 2% 13%
Single, never married 38% 48% 5% 9%
Not currently married 27% 49% 3% 20%
Religious Affiliation*
Protestant 47% 33% 3% 17%
Catholic 32% 52% 3% 13%
Other/unaffiliated 33% 55% 4% 8%
Born Again Christian or Fundamentalist*
Yes 55% 29% 3% 13%
No 32% 51% 3% 14%
Household Union Member*
Yes 27% 52% 3% 18%
No 41% 44% 3% 12%
Military Veteran*
Yes 50% 37% 2% 11%
No 34% 49% 3% 15%
County*
Carbon 32% 48% 2% 18%
Columbia 49% 33% 0% 18%
Lackawanna 27% 55% 2% 17%
Luzerne 37% 49% 4% 10%
Monroe 45% 37% 4% 14%
Party Registration*
Republican 69% 14% 3% 14%
Democrat 17% 67% 2% 14%
Independent/Other 49% 29% 9% 14%

* Significant differences (p<.05)

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 Table A-2. Congressional Vote Choice by Selected Demographics (PA 11th CD)
If the November general election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today and
the candidates were (rotated) Lou Barletta, the Republican, and Paul Kanjorski, the Democrat,
would you vote for Lou Barletta, Paul Kanjorski, or aren’t you sure how you would vote?

Barletta Kanjorski Other DK

Gender*
Male 44% 31% 1% 24%
Female 37% 38% 0% 25%
Age*
18-34 32% 32% 0% 37%
35-54 36% 31% 1% 32%
55 and over 43% 38% 0% 19%
Education
High School or Less 35% 38% 0% 26%
Some College 44% 28% 1% 28%
College Degree 43% 39% 1% 18%
Household Income*
Less than $35,000 29% 47% 0% 24%
$35-75,000 40% 35% 1% 24%
Over $75,000 49% 26% 1% 24%
Race
White 40% 35% 1% 24%
Non-white 23% 46% 0% 31%
Marital Status*
Married 44% 30% 1% 26%
Single, never married 30% 43% 0% 27%
Not currently married 33% 49% 0% 18%
Religious Affiliation*
Protestant 53% 24% 0% 23%
Catholic 34% 43% 1% 22%
Other/unaffiliated 30% 32% 1% 37%
Born Again Christian or Fundamentalist
Yes 49% 27% 0% 24%
No 38% 37% 1% 25%
Household Union Member*
Yes 32% 42% 1% 24%
No 43% 33% 0% 24%
Military Veteran*
Yes 52% 29% 2% 16%
No 37% 37% 0% 26%
County*
Carbon 39% 29% 0% 31%
Columbia 48% 18% 2% 32%
Lackawanna 29% 49% 1% 21%
Luzerne 44% 38% 0% 17%
Monroe 41% 24% 0% 35%
Party Registration*
Republican 65% 11% 0% 24%
Democrat 23% 52% 1% 24%
* Significant
Independent/Other 60% 11% 0% 29%

* Significant differences (p<.05)

10
 Marginal Frequency Report

REG. Some people are registered to vote, and many others are not. Are you
CURRENTLY REGISTERED to vote at your present address?

100% Yes

RegPARTY. Are you currently registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent,

or as something else?

Sep 08 Oct 08
58% 60% Democrat
34% 34% Republican
6% 6% Independent
1% 1% Something else
1% 0% Don’t know

Vote_Nov. Many people will vote in the election in November, however, many other
people will not. What would you say are the chances you will vote in the November
presidential election? Are you certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances
fifty-fifty you will vote, OR don't you think that you will vote in the November election for
president?

Sep 08 Oct 08
88% 89% Certain to vote
6% 8% Will probably vote
3% 2% Chances 50-50
2% 1% Don’t think will vote

Pol_Int. Some people don't pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you?
Would you say that you are…in the 2008 presidential campaign?

Sep 08 Oct 08
71% 72% Very much interested
25% 23% Somewhat interested
4% 5% Not very interested
0% 1% Don’t know

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 IntFav. Please let me know your opinion of some people involved in politics today...Is
your opinion of __ favorable, unfavorable, undecided, or haven't heard enough about __
to have an opinion? (rotated)

Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Don’t

Undecided
favorable favorable unfavorable unfavorable know
SARAH PALIN
Oct 08 24% 17% 10% 28% 13% 8%
Sep 08 31% 14% 8% 18% 12% 18%
LOU BARLETTA
Oct 08 26% 18% 9% 17% 16% 15%
Sep 08 31% 18% 9% 13% 16% 14%
JOHN MCCAIN
Oct 08 21% 23% 11% 28% 15% 2%
Sep 08 28% 21% 12% 22% 16% 2%
JOE BIDEN
Oct 08 31% 21% 11% 15% 12% 10%
Sep 08 27% 22% 10% 14% 12% 15%
BARACK OBAMA
Oct 08 30% 19% 10% 22% 15% 3%
Sep 08 24% 23% 9% 22% 18% 4%
PAUL KANJORSKI
Oct 08 16% 21% 13% 24% 18% 9%
Sep 08 19% 21% 14% 24% 16% 7%

Pres08. If the November general election for president were being held today and the
candidates were (rotated) John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, and Barack
Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, would you vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin,
Barack Obama and Joe Biden, some other candidate, or aren't you sure how you would
vote?

Sep 08 Oct 08
43% 46% Barack Obama/Joe Biden
40% 37% John McCain/Sarah Palin
3% 3% Other
14% 14% Don’t know

Cert. Are you absolutely CERTAIN you will vote FOR [fill Pres08] in the election, or are
you still making up your mind?

Sep 08 Oct 08
448 481 Subsample size

82% 82% Certain

18% 18% Still making up mind

12
Lean. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) John McCain and Sarah Palin, the
Republicans, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, or are you leaning toward
some other candidate?

Sep 08 Oct 08
84 89 Subsample size

31% 38% Barack Obama/Joe Biden

23% 20% John McCain/Sarah Palin
3% 1% Other
44% 42% Don’t know

IssPrim. What will be the single most important issue in your vote for president this year?
(rotated) Foreign policy, the Iraq war, the economy, healthcare, energy policy, taxes,
moral and family values, or something else?

Sep 08 Oct 08
47% 53% The economy
10% 9% Healthcare
12% 8% The Iraq War
7% 8% Moral and family values
6% 8% Something else
4% 5% Taxes
8% 4% Energy policy
4% 3% Foreign policy
3% 2% Don’t know

CD08. If the November general election for the U.S. House of Representatives were
being held today and the candidates were (rotated) Lou Barletta, the Republican, and
Paul Kanjorski, the Democrat, would you vote for Lou Barletta, Paul Kanjorski, or aren’t
you sure how you would vote?

Sep 08 Oct 08
44% 40% Lou Barletta
35% 35% Paul Kanjorski
0% 1% Other
21% 24% Don’t know

CertCD. Are you absolutely CERTAIN you will vote FOR [fill CD08] in the election, or are
you still making up your mind?

Sep 08 Oct 08
429 438 Subsample size

86% 85% Certain

14% 16% Still making up mind

13
LeanCD. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) Lou Barletta, the Republican, or Paul
Kanjorski, the Democrat?

Sep 08 Oct 08
115 145 Subsample size

32% 23% Paul Kanjorski

30% 32% Lou Barletta
38% 46% Don’t know

IssCD. What will be the single most important issue in your vote for U.S. House of
Representatives this year?

Sep 08 Oct 08
21% 29% Economy, personal finances, cost of living
19% 16% Government, politicians
17% 12% Immigration, illegal immigration
5% 5% Taxes
5% 4% Healthcare, insurance
1% 2% Elder issues, social security
1% 2% Values, morality, religion
3% 1% Gasoline/oil prices, energy
2% 1% Education, schools
1% 1% Iraq War
1% 0% Civil liberties
2% 6% Other
23% 23% Don’t know

DesRECD. Do you believe that Paul Kanjorski has done a good enough job in the U.S.
House of Representatives to DESERVE RE-ELECTION, or do you believe it is TIME
FOR A CHANGE?

Sep 08 Oct 08
35% 35% Deserves re-election
54% 53% Time for a change
11% 12% Don’t know

RatePres. How would you rate the way that George Bush is handling his job as
president? Would you say he is doing an...as president?

Sep 08 Oct 08
4% 2% Excellent
16% 15% Good
25% 25% Fair
54% 58% Poor
1% 0% Don’t know

14
UStrk. All in all, do you think things in the United States are generally headed in the
RIGHT DIRECTION, or do you feel that things are off on the WRONG TRACK?

Sep 08 Oct 08
19% 11% Right direction
76% 83% Wrong track
5% 7% Don’t know

MIP_YF. What do you think is the MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM facing YOU and
YOUR FAMILY TODAY?

Sep 08 Oct 08
54% 67% Economy, personal finances, cost of living
11% 10% Healthcare, insurance
10% 4% Gasoline/oil prices, energy
4% 3% Taxes
1% 2% Nothing
2% 1% Elder issues, social security
2% 1% Education, schools
2% 1% Terrorism, foreign policy
1% 1% Values, morality, religion
1% 1% Personal health issues
1% 1% Government, politicians
0% 1% Iraq War
1% 0% Housing, real estate
1% 0% Immigration, illegal immigration
3% 2% Other
6% 5% Don’t know

Gov. Do you think that the problems facing you and your family can be solved with the
help of the government, or are these problems beyond what you think the government
can do?

Sep 08 Oct 08
71% 68% With help of government
21% 24% Beyond what government can do
8% 9% Don’t know

FinToday. We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days.
Would you say that YOU and YOUR FAMILY are better off, worse off, or about the same
financially as you were a year ago?

Sep 08 Oct 08
11% 8% Better off
44% 44% Worse off
44% 49% About the same
1% 0% Don’t know

15
FinFut. Now looking AHEAD, do you think that A YEAR FROM NOW, YOU and YOUR
FAMILY will be better off financially than you are now, worse off, or about the same as
you are now?

Sep 08 Oct 08
27% 22% Better off
15% 19% Worse off
44% 42% About the same
15% 18% Don’t know

I now have a final few questions for statistical purposes only.

CNTY. What is the name of the county you live in?

40% Luzerne
22% Lackawanna
19% Monroe
10% Columbia
9% Carbon

Resd. How many years have you lived at your current address?

25.6 Mean

AGE. What was your age on your last birthday?

2% 18-24
4% 25-34
10% 35-44
20% 45-54
27% 55-64
37% 65 and older

EDUC. What was the last grade level of schooling you have completed?

6% Non high school graduate

35% High school graduate or GED
16% Some college
11% Two-year or tech degree
18% Four year college degree
14% Post graduate degree

MAR. What is your CURRENT marital status, are you single, married, separated,
divorced, or a widower?

11% Single, Never Married

68% Married
1% Separated
6% Divorced
13% Widow or widower

16
PRTY1. Regardless of how you are registered, in politics, as of today, do you think of
yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?

17% Strong Republican

7% Republican
10% Lean Republican
11% Pure Independent
11% Lean Democrat
12% Democrat
30% Strong Democrat
2% Do not know

LABR. Are you or is any member of your household a member of a LABOR UNION?

27% Yes
72% No
1% Don’t know

VET. Are you a military veteran?

22% Yes
78% No

Hisp. Are you Hispanic or Latino, or not?

2% Yes
98% No

RACE. Which of the following categories best describes your racial background?

98% White
2% Non-white

REL. Do you consider yourself to be Protestant, Catholic, some other religion, or not
affiliated with any religion?

34% Protestant
53% Catholic
6% Some other religion
8% Not affiliated with any religion

BAC. Do you consider yourself to be a born-again Christian or fundamentalist, or not?

19% Yes
78% No
3% Don’t know

NumA. Including yourself, how many adults 18 years of age or OLDER CURRENTLY live
in this household?

20% One
58% Two
16% Three
7% Four or more

17
WORK. Are you currently working FULL-time, PART-time, going to school, keeping
house or something else?

41% Full-time
12% Part-time
1% Going to school
4% Keeping house
2% Unemployed
3% Disabled
37% Retired

INC1. And, just for statistical purposes, we need to know if your total family income is
above or below $50,000 per year?

17% Under $25,000

12% $25-$35,000
14% $35-50,000
22% $50-75,000
15% $75-100,000
15% Over $100,000
6% Don’t know

DONE. Sex of respondent:

57% Female
43% Male

18