PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

Lecture 5
Several Useful Discrete
Distributions
 INTRODUCTION
 Discrete random variables take on only a
finite or countably infinite number of values.
 Three discrete probability distributions serve
as models for a large number of practical
applications:

The binomial random variable

The Poisson random variable
The hypergeometric random
variable
THE BINOMIAL RANDOM VARIABLE
 The coin-tossing experiment is
a simple example of a binomial
random variable. Toss a fair coin
n = 3 times and record x =
number of heads.

x p(x)
0 1/8
1 3/8
2 3/8
3 1/8
THE BINOMIAL RANDOM VARIABLE
 Many situations in real life resemble the
coin toss, but the coin is not necessarily
fair, so that P(H)  1/2.
• Example: A geneticist samples
10 people and counts the number
who have a gene linked to
Alzheimer’s disease.
• Coin: Person • Number of n = 10

• Head: Has gene tosses: P(has gene) =

• Tail: Doesn’t have

• P(H): proportion in the
population who have
gene the gene.
THE BINOMIAL EXPERIMENT
1. The experiment consists of n identical
trials.
2. Each trial results in one of two outcomes,
success (S) or failure (F).
3. The probability of success on a single trial
is p and remains constant from trial to
trial. The probability of failure is q = 1 – p.
4. The trials are independent.
5. We are interested in x, the number of
successes in n trials.
BINOMIAL OR NOT?
 Veryfew real life applications satisfy
these requirements exactly.

• Select two people from the U.S.

population, and suppose that 15% of the
population has the Alzheimer’s gene.
• For the first person, p = P(gene) = .15
• For the second person, p  P(gene) =
.15, even though one person has been
removed from the population.
THE BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

 For a binomial experiment with n trials and

probability p of success on a given trial, the
probability of k successes in n trials is
n k n! k n k
P( x  k )  C p q
n k
 p q for k  0,1,2,... n.
k!(n  k )!
k

n!
Recall C  n

k!(n  k )!
k

withn! n(n  1)(n  2)...( 2)1 and 0! 1.

THE MEAN AND STANDARD DEVIATION

 Fora binomial experiment with n trials and

probability p of success on a given trial, the
measures of center and spread are:

Mean :   np
Variance:   npq
2

Standarddeviation:   npq
 EXAMPLE
A marksman hits a target 80% of the
time. He fires five shots at the target. What is the
probability that exactly 3 shots hit the target?

n= success = hit p= .8 x= # of
5
hits
5!
P( x  3)  C p q
n
3
3 n3
 (.8)3 (.2)53
3!2!

 10(.8)3 (.2)2  .2048

 EXAMPLE
What is the probability that more than 3
shots hit the target?

P( x  3)  C45 p4q54  C55 p5q55

5! 5!
 (.8) (.2) 
4 1
(.8)5 (.2)0
4!1! 5!0!

 5(.8)4 (.2)  (.8)5  .7373

CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY TABLES
You can use the cumulative probability
tables to find probabilities for selected
binomial distributions.
Find the table for the correct value of n.
Find the column for the correct value of p.
The row marked “k” gives the cumulative
probability, P(x  k) = P(x = 0) +…+ P(x = k)
 EXAMPLE
k p = .80
0 .000 What is the probability that
1 .007 exactly 3 shots hit the target?
2 .058
3 .263
4 .672 P(x = 3) = P(x  3) – P(x  2)
5 1.000 = .263 - .058
= .205 Check from
formula: P(x = 3) =
.2048
 EXAMPLE
k p = .80
0 .000
What is the probability that more
1 .007
than 3 shots hit the target?
2 .058
3 .263
4 .672 P(x > 3) = 1 - P(x  3)
5 1.000 = 1 - .263 = .737
Check from
formula: P(x > 3) =
.7373
 EXAMPLE
 Here is the probability
distribution for x = number of
hits. What are the mean and
standard deviation for x?

Mean :   np  5(. 8)  4

Standarddeviation:   npq

 5(. 8)(. 2)  .89


 EXAMPLE
 Would it be unusual to find that none of
the shots hit the target?

  4;   .89

• The value x = 0 lies

x 04
z   4.49
 .89
• more than 4 standard
deviations below the
mean. Very unusual.

THE POISSON RANDOM VARIABLE
 The Poisson random variable x is a model for
data that represent the number of
occurrences of a specified event in a given
unit of time or space.

• Examples:
• The number of calls received by a
switchboard during a given period of time.
• The number of machine breakdowns in a
day
• The number of traffic accidents at a given
intersection during a given time period.
THE POISSON PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
x is the number of events that occur in a period
of time or space during which an average of 
such events can be expected to occur. The
probability of k occurrences of this event is

 k e
P( x  k ) 
k!
For values of k = 0, 1, 2, … The mean
and standard deviation of the Poisson
random variable are
Mean: 
Standard deviation:   
 EXAMPLE
The average number of traffic accidents on
a certain section of highway is two per
week. Find the probability of exactly one
accident during a one-week period.
k  2
 e
1
2e 2
P( x  1)    2e  .2707
k! 1!
 CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY TABLES
You can use the cumulative probability
tables to find probabilities for selected
Poisson distributions.

Find the column for the correct value of .

The row marked “k” gives the cumulative
probability, P(x  k) = P(x = 0) +…+ P(x = k)
 EXAMPLE
k =2 What is the probability that there
0 .135 is exactly 1 accident?
1 .406
2 .677
3 .857 P(x = 1) = P(x  1) – P(x
4 .947  0)
5 .983 = .406 - .135
6 .995 = .271
7 .999
8 1.000 Check from
formula: P(x = 1) =
.2707
 EXAMPLE
k =2 What is the probability that 8 or
0 .135 more accidents happen?
1 .406
P(x  8) = 1 - P(x < 8)
2 .677
= 1 – P(x  7)
3 .857
= 1 - .999 = .001
4 .947
5 .983
This would be very unusual (small
6 .995
probability) since x = 8 lies
7 .999 x 82
z   4.24
8 1.000  1.414
standard deviations above the mean.
 m
THE HYPERGEOMETRIC m
m
m
m
m
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION m

 The “M&M® problems” from Chapter 4 are

modeled by the hypergeometric distribution.
 A bowl contains M red candies and N-M blue
candies. Select n candies from the bowl and
record x the number of red candies selected.
Define a “red M&M®” to be a “success”.

The probability of exactly k successes in n

trials is
M M N
C C
P( x  k )  k
N
nk
C n
 m
m
m m
m
m
THE MEAN AND VARIANCE m

The mean and variance of the

hypergeometric random variable x
resemble the mean and variance of the
binomial random
 
M variable:
M ean :   n 
N
 M  N  M  N  n 
Variance :   n 
2
 
 N  N  N  1 
 EXAMPLE
A package of 8 AA batteries contains 2
batteries that are defective. A student
randomly selects four batteries and replaces
the batteries in his calculator. What is the
probability that all four batteries work?
6 2
Success = working CC
battery P( x  4)  4
8
0
C4
N=8
6(5) / 2(1) 15
M=6  
8(7)(6)(5) / 4(3)(2)(1) 70
n=4
EXAMPLE
What are the mean and variance for the
number of batteries that work?
M  6
  n   4   3
N 8
 M  N  M  N  n 
  n 
2
 
 N  N  N  1 
 6  2  4 
 4     .4286
 8  8  7 
KEY CONCEPTS
I. The Binomial Random Variable
1. Five characteristics: n identical independent trials,
each resulting in either success S or failure F; probability
of success is p and remains constant from trial to trial;
and x is the number of successes in n trials.
2. Calculating binomial probabilities
a. Formula:
n k nk
P ( x  k ) 
b. Cumulative binomial tablesCk p q

c. Individual and cumulative probabilities using

Minitab
3. Mean of the binomial random variable:   np
4. Variance and standard deviation:  2  npq and

  npq
 KEY CONCEPTS
II. The Poisson Random Variable
1. The number of events that occur in a period of time or
space, during which an average of  such events are
expected to occur
2. Calculating Poisson probabilities

a. Formula:  k e
P( x  k ) 
b. Cumulative Poisson tables k!
c. Individual and cumulative probabilities using
Minitab
3. Mean of the Poisson random variable: E(x)  
4. Variance and standard deviation:  2   and  
5. Binomial probabilities can be approximated with
Poisson probabilities when np < 7, using   np.
 KEY CONCEPTS
III. The Hypergeometric Random Variable
1. The number of successes in a sample of size n from a finite
population containing M successes and N  M failures
2. Formula for the probability of k successes in n trials:

CkM CnMk N
P( x  k ) 
CnN
3. Mean of the hypergeometric random variable:

M 
4. Variance and standard deviation:   n 
N

 M  N  M  N  n 
  n 
2
 
 N  N  N  1 