INTRODUCTION:-

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the Indian

economy, with estimates ranging from 1.1% to 13.6% over FY 20 under
different recovery scenarios. Even before the pandemic, the Indian
economy had experienced a slowdown in economic growth and record
increases in unemployment and poverty. The second wave of COVID-19
has exposed and worsened existing inequalities in the Indian economy,
and the contraction of the economy is expected to continue in the next
four quarters, leading to an inevitable recession. The lockdown period
has had a devastating impact on slowing down the economy, with
shops, eateries, factories, transport services, and business
establishments shuttered. The government is not in a rush to make any
drastic changes in policy and offer tax relief, but has announced an
extension in filings of GST for FY 2018-19 until June 30, 2020.

The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in India has been

largely disruptive. India's growth in the fourth quarter of the fiscal
year 2020 went down to 3.1% according to the Ministry of Statistics.
Notably, India had also been witnessing a pre-pandemic slowdown, and
according to the World Bank, the current pandemic has "magnified pre-
existing risks to India's economic outlook".

Economic situation

In India up to 53% of businesses have specified a certain amount of

impact of shutdowns caused due to corona virus on operations as per
a FICCI survey in March. By 24 April the unemployment rate had
increased nearly 19% within a month, reaching 26% unemployment
across India, according to the 'Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy'.
Around 140 million Indians lost employment during the lockdown.
More than 45% households across the nation reported an income drop
as compared to the previous year. Various businesses such as hotels
and airlines cut salaries and laid-off employees. Revenue of transport
companies such as Ola Cabs went down nearly 95% in March–April
resulting in 1400 layoffs.  It was estimated that the loss to the tourism
industry will be ₹15,000 crore for March and April alone.  Live events
industry saw an estimated loss of ₹3,000 crore.

A number of young startups were impacted as funding fell. A Data Labs

report shows a 45% decrease in the total growth-stage funding as
compared to Q4 2019.  According to a KPMG report venture capital in
Indian startups has fallen over 50% in Q1 2020 from Q4 2019.

Government revenue has been severely affected with tax collection

going down, and as a result the government has been trying to find
ways of reducing its own costs.  In April, former Reserve Bank of
India chief Raghuram Rajan said that the coronavirus pandemic in India
may just be the "greatest emergency since Independence”

The Indian economy was expected to lose over ₹32,000 crore every day

during the first 21 days of the lockdown, according to Acuité Ratings.  
Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) had sought an economic fiscal
stimulus package of 1% of India's GDP amounting to ₹2 lakh crore. The
fiscal package and fiscal policies approach was being compared to what
had happened in other countries such as Germany, Brazil and Japan.
GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES:-

The Government of India announced a variety of measures to tackle the

situation, from food security and extra funds for healthcare and for the
states, to sector related incentives and tax deadline extensions. On 26
March a number of economic relief measures for the poor were
announced totaling over ₹170,000 crore. The next day the Reserve
Bank of India also announced a number of measures which would make
available ₹374,000 crore to the country's financial system. The World
Bank and Asian Development Bank approved support to India to tackle
the corona virus pandemic.

The different phases of India's lockdown up to the "first unlock" on 1

June had varying degrees of the opening of the economy. On 17 April,
the RBI Governor announced more measures to counter the economic
impact of the pandemic including ₹50,000 crore special finance
to NABARD, SIDBI, and NHB. On 18 April, to protect Indian companies
during the pandemic, the government changed India's foreign direct
investment policy. The Department of Military Affairs put on hold all
capital acquisitions for the beginning of the financial year.

On 12 May, the Prime Minister announced an overall economic

stimulus package worth ₹20 lakh crore. Two days later the Cabinet
cleared a number of proposals in the economic package including a free
food grains package. In December 2020, a Right to Information petition
revealed that less than 10% of this stimulus had been actually
disbursed. By July 2020, a number of economic indicators showed signs
of rebound and recovery. On 12 October and 12 November, the
government announced two more economic stimulus packages,
bringing the total economic stimulus to ₹29.87 lakh crore. By December
2021, India was back to pre-COVID-19 growth.

Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan (Economic package)

On 12 May the Prime Minister, in an address to the nation, said that the
coronavirus crisis should be seen as an opportunity, laying emphasis on
domestic products and "economic self-reliance", an Atmanirbhar
Bharat (translation: Self-reliant India) through a Atmanirbhar Bharat
Abhiyan (translation: Self-reliant India Mission). The following day the
Finance Minister started laying out the details of the Prime Minister's
vision which would continue into the next few days. The Finance
Minister stated that the aim was to "spur growth" and "self-reliance",
adding that, "self-reliant India does not mean cutting off from rest of
the world". The law and IT minister, Ravi Shankar Prasad, also said that
self-reliance does "not mean isolating away from the world. Foreign
direct investment is welcome, technology is welcome. Self-reliant India
translates to being a bigger and more important part of the global
economy.

Economic package use

By 7 September 2020, PM Garib Kalyan Yojana provided support to the

tune of ₹68,820 crore. In December 2020, a Right to
Information petition revealed that less than 10% of the package had
been actually disbursed, chiefly in the form of emergency credit.
Change in FDI policy

On 18 April 2020, India changed its foreign direct investment (FDI)

policy to curb "'opportunistic takeovers/acquisitions' of Indian
companies due to the current pandemic", according to the Department
for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade. With the fall in global
shares prices, there is concern that China could take advantage of the
situation, leading to hostile takeovers. While the new FDI policy does
not restrict markets, the policy ensures that all FDI from countries that
share a land border with India will now be under scrutiny of
the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

Pre-pandemic slowdown

India had also been witnessing a pre-pandemic slowdown. Since FY

2018–19, India's growth was falling, 8% in Q4 FY18 to 4.5% in Q2 FY20.
In January 2020 itself, well before India's lockdown or reactions to the
pandemic, the International Monetary Fund reduced India's GDP
estimates for 2019 and also reduced the 2020 GDP forecast. The 2016
Indian banknote demonetization and goods and services tax enactment
in 2017 led to severe back to back disruptions in the economy. On top
of this there had been numerous banking crises such as
the Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services crisis and government
scheme failures such as that of 'Make in India'. There was also a
significant "income crunch" for both rural and urban sectors in the year
prior to the lockdown.
Supply chains and logistics

Following the lockdown, certain essential supply chains broke

down. Britannia Industries, supporting the lockdown, urged the
government to ensure inter-state movement of the raw material for
the food processing industry was not hampered. The managing director
of Britannia stated that "if even one link in the supply chain is broken,
the country could run out of stocks of packaged food in the next 7–10
days."Although inter-state travel has been banned, it doesn't apply to
essentials, and in places like Maharashtra the state police were yet to
streamline the process, disrupting supply chains.

On 29 March the government allowed the movement of all essential as

well as non-essential goods across the country during the
lockdown. The milk and newspaper supply chains were also allowed to
function.

Salaries

The Prime Minister on 19 March urged businesses and high income

segments of society to take care of the economic needs of all those
who provide them services. During the live telecast, he also appealed to
families to not cut the pay of domestic help. Following the lockdown,
the government circulated advisories and directives ordering
companies to keep paying employees among other things. The Ministry
of Finance issued an Office Memorandum on 23 March 2020:
wherever such contractual, the casual and outsourced staff of
Ministries/Departments and other organization of Government of India is required
to stay at home in view of lockdown order regarding COVID-19 prevention they
shall be treated as "on duty" during such period of absence and necessary
pay/wages would be paid accordingly.
These instructions shall apply until April 30, 2020.
— Addt Sect, Dept of Expenditure, Ministry of Finance

A few days later worries grew as to how wages could continue being
paid and if the directive was legal or not. There were also concerns
raised by migrant workers regarding the implementation of the orders
as many daily-wagers have no records of being sacked or salaries being
paid or deducted; the concerns also expand to uncertainty in the
government's ability to enforce minimum wages under lockdown when
it couldn't even do so during normal times.

On 15 May, the Supreme Court announced that the government should

not take "coercive action" against employers for not paying wages
during the lockdown. The court was commenting on 29 March
government order.

Centre and state collaboration

Numerous center versus state tussles have taken place during the
COVID-19 pandemic, having a socio-economic impact other than the
immediate political impact. Some tussles are not directly related to the
pandemic such as the Telangana Chief Minister over the Electricity
(Amendment) Bill. Other tussles are directly related to the impacts of
the pandemic such as the exodus of migrants. Liquor became another
source of dispute.  Some states have had disputes with the centre
related to how the lockdown should be implemented.

The Modi government, in view of the corona virus pandemic,

suspended Members of Parliament Local Area Development
Scheme (MPLADS) for two years. This action has been called
problematic in many ways, causing a centralization of power, being
anti-federal in nature, and having an effect on local level development
and MP influence at micro levels of the society to handle distress. There
have been calls for halting the ₹20,000 crore redevelopment of the
central vista project in Delhi instead.

During the exit of the lockdown there has been a lack of centre and
state collaboration as well as with local authorities. This has been
visible in the handling of migrant labour; now that companies were
restarting, there was a labour shortage.

Economic recovery
V-shaped recovery

In the second week of May, companies started preparations for

restarting operations. Some companies opened offices with the
maximum permitted strength of 33% while others took a more cautious
approach of as low as five per cent. The beginning of June saw
companies further reopen and making plans to reopen. A study by Elara
Securities Inc. found that five Indian states, Kerala, Punjab, Tamil Nadu,
Haryana and Karnataka, are contributing 27% to India's GDP as India
emerges from a total lockdown. By mid-June, unemployment levels
were back to pre-lockdown levels. Online sales reached pre-COVID-19
level sales by June end. Hindustan Unilever registered pre-COVID-19
levels in sales in late June. On 2 July 2020, The Times of India reported
that a number of economic indicators such as the
manufacturers Purchasing Managers' Index, goods movement, GST
collections, electricity usage and rail freight transport showed
significant improvement as compared to previous months. Localized
intermittent shutdowns in July were seen to negatively affect aspects of
the country's economic recovery. On 29 July 2020, the Cabinet of
India passed the National Educational Policy 2020 aimed at
strengthening the economy. By 13 September 2020, Nomura India's
Business Resumption Index showed that economic activity was nearly
back to pre-lockdown levels.

By mid-January 2021 only agriculture, forestry and fishing saw positive

growth. Sectors such as manufacturing, real estate, professional
services, construction, tourism, public utility and defense were still in
recession. The economic survey of India for 2021, tabled during the
Budget Session of the Parliament on 31 January 2020, stated that
"starting July (2020), a resilient V-shaped recovery is underway". This
conclusion was based on indicators such as E-Way Bills, GST revenue
statistics, commercial paper, steel demand and recovery in GDP
growth. On 26 February 2021, India's GDP was back to pre-lockdown
levels. Due to low base effect a number of infrastructure sectors such
as natural gas and cement saw high double digit growth in March 2021;
a number of related sector such as coal were still in recession. In April
the output of the core infrastructure sectors again saw high growth,
again a consequence of the low base effect.

Pre-COVID 19 growth

By December 2021, India was back to pre-COVID-19 growth.

In August 2022, Sanjiv Bajaj, the current chairman of Confederation of

Indian Industry has advocated for a reduction in personal income tax
rates as the government's next initiative in tax changes, believing that
this will put more money in the hands of the people and revitalize
consumption and demand, in turn, boost the recovery.
 ABOUT SURVEY
This survey was carried out by a student of Hariyana Vidya Mandir,
Class XII-B6 named Laksha Mandiye intake as a part of an economics
subject assessment. The purpose of this survey is to know the
conditions faced by the people during the COVID-19 pandemic.

This survey was carried out under the guidance of our subject teacher
Mrs. Sangeeta Sengupta ma’am. The questions asked in the survey are
asked to two groups:-

(A) Age below 40 group and (B) Age above 40 group

The questions are as follows:

1. Did anyone get affected by the Covid Virus in your family?

2. Did you face any problem of getting essential commodities?

3. Are you satisfied with the available health care facilities provided by
the government during the pandemic?

4. Do you support the educational policy of assessment of students in

the pandemic period?

5. Is your family earning same as it was before lockdown?

6. Is vaccine the only way to prevent Corona Virus? Why?